Tesla truck unveil

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TravelGeek
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:49 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:36 pm
In town delivery vehicles are another potential good application. UPS has actually be using hybrid trucks for years now, hinting at the possibility to go full electric. What's really interesting is I've starting occasionally seeing Smith Newton electric delivery trucks in my area with Frito Lay branding on the side. It makes sense since convenience snacks are low density, and they're probably stopping at convenience stores every mile or two on their routes.

The trucks have less than 100 mile range, and are limited to 50 mph, but that's all they need. They use a different type of lithium ion battery than most applications that is more optimal for longevity and life-cycle cost, rather than energy and power density.
Agreed, I always thought that the fleets of UPS, FedEx and USPS would be good targets. Turns out in Germany the postal service apparently couldn’t find a manufacturer interested in developing vehicles, so they “just” built their own.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ectric-car

And I think after the initial success they are now teaming up with Ford to develop a larger model.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deut ... SKBN19519U

May not be as sexy as a Freightliner replacement, but apparently quite doable.

hightower
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by hightower » Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:58 pm

btenny wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:42 pm
This dog and pony show was a joke IMO. Total vaporware or worse. It is not a product yet or even close. The truck does not work and will not tow any real heavy loads any significant distance because the design is not done. It is years away. The truck shown has no cooling or radiator for the power train but is supposed to have enough power to tow 80K pounds up a 4% grade hill. Guess what, that design would burn it up without motor cooling. So where is this?

This event was just more BS trying to pump the stock before they go out for more money to pour into the Model 3 mess. This company is sort of like Apple right after the Mac was released and before they fired Steve Jobs. It needs a real CEO. Not some star gazing idea man. But some person or persons who can ship products and drive people and lower costs and so forth.

Just my opinion.
Do you really think they don't have super smart engineers on board for the design of this truck? Sure they are trying to take attention away from the model 3 delays, but to say that they don't know how to make a truck that will work is not fair. Electric motors are very different than ICE. If Tesla has proven anything it's that they know how to make electric transportation that works very well. They just need to learn how to mass produce it now.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by stoptothink » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:20 pm

hightower wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:58 pm
btenny wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:42 pm
This dog and pony show was a joke IMO. Total vaporware or worse. It is not a product yet or even close. The truck does not work and will not tow any real heavy loads any significant distance because the design is not done. It is years away. The truck shown has no cooling or radiator for the power train but is supposed to have enough power to tow 80K pounds up a 4% grade hill. Guess what, that design would burn it up without motor cooling. So where is this?

This event was just more BS trying to pump the stock before they go out for more money to pour into the Model 3 mess. This company is sort of like Apple right after the Mac was released and before they fired Steve Jobs. It needs a real CEO. Not some star gazing idea man. But some person or persons who can ship products and drive people and lower costs and so forth.

Just my opinion.
Do you really think they don't have super smart engineers on board for the design of this truck? Sure they are trying to take attention away from the model 3 delays, but to say that they don't know how to make a truck that will work is not fair. Electric motors are very different than ICE. If Tesla has proven anything it's that they know how to make electric transportation that works very well. They just need to learn how to mass produce it now.
Certainly not what I got from Btenny's post. Fact of the matter is, the numbers Musk threw around were so far removed from what is possible today that it makes it really difficult to take it seriously.

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ray.james
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by ray.james » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:28 pm

stoptothink wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:20 pm
Certainly not what I got from Btenny's post. Fact of the matter is, the numbers Musk threw around were so far removed from what is possible today that it makes it really difficult to take it seriously.
Are you talking about the acceleration numbers or battery charging speed(electrek has an article talking about it) or just the range that is possible?
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stoptothink
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by stoptothink » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:36 pm

ray.james wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:28 pm
stoptothink wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:20 pm
Certainly not what I got from Btenny's post. Fact of the matter is, the numbers Musk threw around were so far removed from what is possible today that it makes it really difficult to take it seriously.
Are you talking about the acceleration numbers or battery charging speed(electrek has an article talking about it) or just the range that is possible?
Range, torque on the roadster, all the performance data on the truck...

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ray.james
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by ray.james » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:40 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:09 pm
As an engineer with some experience with commercial vehicles, I'd like to know his battery specs then.

Doing an energy comparison with a 40% thermal efficiency diesel getting 6mpg, a 95% efficient electric truck would need a 1430 kWh battery. With the best lithium ion cells I know of in mass production (Sanyo NCR18650GA), the battery pack will weigh at least 11,000 pounds for the cells only (not counting structure, wiring, and cooling system), and cost $232,000 at the $162/kWh Bloomberg Finance estimates industrial volume prices have dropped to as of this summer. A Freightliner costs about $150,000 for the full truck.

Alternate check on my math
Model S:
270 miles x 4500 pounds / 85 kWh = 7.1 ton-miles/kWh
1200 pound battery = 2.0 pounds battery per ton-mile capacity

Tesla Semi:
500 miles x 80,000 pounds / 1430 kWh = 14.0 ton-miles/kWh
11,000 pound battery = 0.55 pounds battery per ton-mile capacity

Comparing those, the figures I'm using appear generous with regards to giving credence to the claims.

A more rigorous analysis recently came up with higher numbers of around 2000 kWh for a 600 mile range, based on real average payloads, drive cycles, and total of drag plus other resistances.
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ac ... tt.7b00432
Agree, if the specs mentioned were true at that efficiency, it is pretty much a crazy battery technology upgrade.

Also the leap might need as big as you state. At 0.36 coefficient drag, it is pretty beats even pickup trucks resistance. I would imagine rolling resistance is way low as well. Given the spec on charging 400 miles in 30 minutes -- this pretty much is impossible unless they had a breakthrough on battery tech side or each cell of multiple packs charging separately?(they did mention new roadster uses 2170 cell which are 2x storage at 50% volume~= 4x gains--if we can say that.)
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ray.james
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by ray.james » Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:48 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:09 pm
As an engineer with some experience with commercial vehicles, I'd like to know his battery specs then.

Doing an energy comparison with a 40% thermal efficiency diesel getting 6mpg, a 95% efficient electric truck would need a 1430 kWh battery. With the best lithium ion cells I know of in mass production (Sanyo NCR18650GA), the battery pack will weigh at least 11,000 pounds for the cells only (not counting structure, wiring, and cooling system), and cost $232,000 at the $162/kWh Bloomberg Finance estimates industrial volume prices have dropped to as of this summer. A Freightliner costs about $150,000 for the full truck.

Alternate check on my math
Model S:
270 miles x 4500 pounds / 85 kWh = 7.1 ton-miles/kWh
1200 pound battery = 2.0 pounds battery per ton-mile capacity

Tesla Semi:
500 miles x 80,000 pounds / 1430 kWh = 14.0 ton-miles/kWh
11,000 pound battery = 0.55 pounds battery per ton-mile capacity

Comparing those, the figures I'm using appear generous with regards to giving credence to the claims.

A more rigorous analysis recently came up with higher numbers of around 2000 kWh for a 600 mile range, based on real average payloads, drive cycles, and total of drag plus other resistances.
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ac ... tt.7b00432
Agree, if the specs mentioned were true at that efficiency, it is pretty much a crazy battery technology upgrade.

Also the leap might need as big as you state. At 0.36 coefficient drag, it is pretty beats even pickup trucks resistance. I would imagine rolling resistance is way low as well. Given the spec on charging 400 miles in 30 minutes -- this pretty much is impossible unless they had a breakthrough on battery tech side or each cell of multiple packs charging separately?(they did mention new roadster uses 2170 cell which are 2x storage at 50% volume~= 4x gains--if we can say that.)

edit: My numbers are wrong the battery packs are smaller which has multiple cells at 30% more capacity. The cell itself is 10% larger with 33% more capacity. Not sure what was in press yet. This was not in official Tesla statement.
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Helo80
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by Helo80 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:38 pm

So...
- Model S
- Model X
- Model 3
- Super Exotic
- big rig
.... are all vastly different vehicles, targeting vastly different markets. Do they plan to make them ALL under the same roof? I have not even seen their factory floor, and I think it's going to be a disaster. Even when ol' Elon was saying he'd be building half a million units in '18, I was saying it'd be a disaster. I still am saying that he's not building anything close to 500,000 units next year... Maybe he breaks 200,000. I'll be eager to see Nov '17 numbers.

I hope he's cross listing a lot of the parts catalogs. :|

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by iamlucky13 » Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:58 pm

ray.james wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:40 pm
Agree, if the specs mentioned were true at that efficiency, it is pretty much a crazy battery technology upgrade.

Also the leap might need as big as you state. At 0.36 coefficient drag, it is pretty beats even pickup trucks resistance. I would imagine rolling resistance is way low as well. Given the spec on charging 400 miles in 30 minutes -- this pretty much is impossible unless they had a breakthrough on battery tech side or each cell of multiple packs charging separately?(they did mention new roadster uses 2170 cell which are 2x storage at 50% volume~= 4x gains--if we can say that.)
Those ratios are off for 21700 cells (which stands for 21mm diameter, 70mm length, versus the more common 18mm x 65mm).

It's the same battery technology in a slightly larger package, which means the battery case, tolerances, and the connections between the actual storage medium and the + and - terminals make up a lower percentage of the volume and weight of the battery pack. The actual difference is a little over 1.6 times the capacity in 1.47 times the volume. The Roadster has a really big pack.

* Edit - I see your update on this *

80% charges in 30 minutes are technically possible with decent lithium-ion cells, and already done on the Model S. There's two main problems for charging a truck that way.

First of all, it's really hard on the battery. We're talking about literally a 5x or more acceleration in battery degradation compared to the normal charge rate. Tesla actually limits the charge rate of the Model S after a certain amount of Supercharging (one owner reported he noticed it after about 50 partial charges) to minimize the effect on battery life.

Secondly, it takes a huge amount of power. I'll spare the details and just say it's about the same as the regular overhead lines we all see running down the roads to feed neighborhoods of several dozen to perhaps a couple hundred homes - 12,500 Volts at 250 Amps.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by emoore » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:42 pm

While I admit Elon tends to overpromise and exaggerate, I’m happy he’s pushing battery technology. It eventually needs to happen and the sooner the better. He’s pushing the big autos to start building alternative fuel vehicles.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by daveydoo » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:55 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:59 am
...Stunning car. Careful with all that power!
Agree. All the wrong people will buy this car. Have seen hundreds of Teslas. Saw exactly one accelerating faster than a Toyota (it was an X, P100D -- and it was a sight). I guess 0-60 numbers get the well-heeled into the stores. A weenie driving a big-battery Tesla is like seeing a pick-up in the city -- do you even know what this thing is for? :D
"I mean, it's one banana, Michael...what could it cost? Ten dollars?"

Tamales
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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Tamales » Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:28 pm

A fully-loaded semi that can do 0-60 in 5 seconds? That sounds potentially dangerous given the size, and potential cargo shifting. And what about when the truck is empty and you have a hot-head boy-racer driver?
No driver has experience controlling that combination of power weight and size in an 18-wheeler. It's a weapon.
And I hope it has brakes to match.

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6miths
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by 6miths » Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:46 pm

riverguy wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:18 am
Are they going to be building these by hand too?
+1

I'd just be happy if they could get a functional Model 3 to me with a reasonable timeline.
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain

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6miths
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by 6miths » Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:52 pm

sunny_socal wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:44 pm
Shallowpockets wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:18 pm
Too bad they can't make a swappable battery pack. National truck stops like Pilot could have a bank of them. Sort of like swapping out my empty propane tank at Walmart.
Could be a seperate trailer, right behind the cab. So cab, battery pack, load haul trailer. Then they just have to unhook and swap it out. Would be smart if Tesla itself fronted the infrastructure cost and placement of these.
Range is of importance, but so is time to charge. For our urban, suburban uses like the cars we can wait for a recharge. No information has been given yet on that recharge info, only for tentative range.
I'm hoping for newer technology, something like super capacitors or carbon nanotube batteries. Having piles of Lithium batteries isn't exactly 'green' nor are the Lithium mines:
Image
I like the battery pack idea. Like the coal locomotive with the detachable tender. I was having a discussion with someone from London and they were commenting on the lack of infrastructure in London to support charging and I pointed out that there were many ways to overcome this. One thing that came to mind was a 'mailbox' or 'trash can' size battery pack that could be dropped off and picked up as needed at the curbside.

Honestly, I thought the open pit mine picture was going to have a comment to the effect that this might be where all the money is going that is being invested in Elon's companies. I am pulling for him though. Self driving alternative fuel transports make huge sense.
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so!' Mark Twain

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by neilpilot » Sat Nov 18, 2017 1:42 pm

Shallowpockets wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:18 pm
Too bad they can't make a swappable battery pack. National truck stops like Pilot could have a bank of them. Sort of like swapping out my empty propane tank at Walmart.
Could be a seperate trailer, right behind the cab. So cab, battery pack, load haul trailer. Then they just have to unhook and swap it out. Would be smart if Tesla itself fronted the infrastructure cost and placement of these.
Range is of importance, but so is time to charge. For our urban, suburban uses like the cars we can wait for a recharge. No information has been given yet on that recharge info, only for tentative range.
Of course this isn’t a new idea. Back in 2014 Tesla briefly played with an automated system that swapped Model S battery packs in less than 90 seconds. That idea seemed to be shelved as the Supercharger network started rolling out. In fact, 2 months ago Tesla filed for a mobile battery swapping patent. Not necessarily for the truck, but the same general concept.

https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/15/tesla ... pping-rig/

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Carlton » Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:20 pm

Electric trucks would make the most sense for local and regional delivery where the vehicles return to a home base each night. For long distance, i don't think its practical. How much battery density do you need to get a 80000lb semi up the very long grades in mountainous terrain? For moving long distance tonnage, available technology such as rail will be very hard to beat for a long time.

Video of monster inter-modal trains running in the mid-west. Equivalent of 600 or so trucks off the road, with only 2 people (train operator and conductor) operating the entire train with speeds up to 70mph. Even though train has 10 locomotives, the btu consumption per ton mile moved is very efficient.

https://youtu.be/9Z10g9wBNhg?t=15s

ArmchairArchitect
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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by ArmchairArchitect » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:31 pm

Carlton wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:20 pm
Electric trucks would make the most sense for local and regional delivery where the vehicles return to a home base each night. For long distance, i don't think its practical. How much battery density do you need to get a 80000lb semi up the very long grades in mountainous terrain? For moving long distance tonnage, available technology such as rail will be very hard to beat for a long time.

Video of monster inter-modal trains running in the mid-west. Equivalent of 600 or so trucks off the road, with only 2 people (train operator and conductor) operating the entire train with speeds up to 70mph. Even though train has 10 locomotives, the btu consumption per ton mile moved is very efficient.

https://youtu.be/9Z10g9wBNhg?t=15s
Electric vehicles have much more torque than conventional ones. Those mountainous uphills will be no problem.

Also, not sure why you're bringing trains into the picture- Tesla is not marketing this as a train replacement but rather as a diesel semi-truck replacement.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by stoptothink » Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:40 pm

Tamales wrote:
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:28 pm
A fully-loaded semi that can do 0-60 in 5 seconds? That sounds potentially dangerous given the size, and potential cargo shifting. And what about when the truck is empty and you have a hot-head boy-racer driver?
No driver has experience controlling that combination of power weight and size in an 18-wheeler. It's a weapon.
And I hope it has brakes to match.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/th ... ailsignout. Yep, read this response from a former truck driver.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by iamlucky13 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 1:57 pm

Since the post has been referred to again, I'm going to keep this level-headed and brief to try to make some clarification while hopefully staying within the bounds of LadyGeek's admonition.
sunny_socal wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:44 pm
I'm hoping for newer technology, something like super capacitors or carbon nanotube batteries. Having piles of Lithium batteries isn't exactly 'green' nor are the Lithium mines:
The accompanying photo is not a lithium mine. It is a diamond mine in Russia. It has, however, been used in some articles discussing the impacts of lithium mining. I'll leave it to the reader to speculate whether using that image in such articles is an honest mistake or a deliberate decision, and instead just say to always read critically, especially if the reputation of a source is unknown. There is more information about that particular mine here for the curious:
https://gizmodo.com/the-nearly-mile-wid ... 1593234924

People also need to keep in mind that a photo is not the same as a proper environmental impact analysis. Some photos show obvious effects that extended beyond the borders of a project. Others are just visually striking.

There have been life cycle analyses done on electric vehicles that attempt to quantify factors like raw materials production, energy consumption during use, and end-of-life disposal. These are often compared to similar for ICE cars. Rather than go into details, I'll just mention that "life cycle analysis" is a good search term to use for finding this kind of research or reporting on it related to many different products.

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HomerJ
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by HomerJ » Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:54 pm

gougou wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:47 pm
So what do you guys think about Tesla stock? I have about 10% of my stock portfolio in TSLA.
Have you been reading here long? Very few people here recommend big allocations to single stocks.

But if you want my opinion (which is worthless, but you are the one asking strangers on the Internet), I think Tesla, as a stock, is a very dangerous investment.

I think the company itself may do well, but the stock price is way out of whack. They are having huge problems with production. They built like 300 Model 3s so far... they're shooting for 5000 a week, and maybe someday 10,000 a week, but even then it will take them 50-100 weeks (1-2 years) just to fulfill the 500,000 pre-orders.

Meanwhile their stock is valued higher than GM, who makes and sells 10 MILLION cars a year, compared to Tesla's current 100,000 cars a year.

Bottom line, their stock is ALREADY priced like they will become the biggest car company on the planet. This may actually happen, but there's not a lot of upside to the stock (except silly human emotions driving stock prices, which are certainly real).

Maybe they'll make a bunch of money with battery technology. I don't see them making enough profits with their cars to justify their stock price at this time.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Carlton » Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:04 pm

ArmchairArchitect wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:31 pm
Carlton wrote:
Sun Nov 19, 2017 12:20 pm
Electric trucks would make the most sense for local and regional delivery where the vehicles return to a home base each night. For long distance, i don't think its practical. How much battery density do you need to get a 80000lb semi up the very long grades in mountainous terrain? For moving long distance tonnage, available technology such as rail will be very hard to beat for a long time.

Video of monster inter-modal trains running in the mid-west. Equivalent of 600 or so trucks off the road, with only 2 people (train operator and conductor) operating the entire train with speeds up to 70mph. Even though train has 10 locomotives, the btu consumption per ton mile moved is very efficient.

https://youtu.be/9Z10g9wBNhg?t=15s
Electric vehicles have much more torque than conventional ones. Those mountainous uphills will be no problem.

Also, not sure why you're bringing trains into the picture- Tesla is not marketing this as a train replacement but rather as a diesel semi-truck replacement.
It's not the torque, but the on-board "fuel" availability. It would seem the battery range would drop dramatically in challenging mountain driving. Diesel fuel is a very concentrated source of available energy. I was mentioning intermodal trains, basically trucks on flatcars, which is very much part of the business model of the long haul trucking industry which I think Tesla will have a very hard time penetrating.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by gougou » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:54 pm
gougou wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 4:47 pm
So what do you guys think about Tesla stock? I have about 10% of my stock portfolio in TSLA.
Have you been reading here long? Very few people here recommend big allocations to single stocks.

But if you want my opinion (which is worthless, but you are the one asking strangers on the Internet), I think Tesla, as a stock, is a very dangerous investment.

I think the company itself may do well, but the stock price is way out of whack. They are having huge problems with production. They built like 300 Model 3s so far... they're shooting for 5000 a week, and maybe someday 10,000 a week, but even then it will take them 50-100 weeks (1-2 years) just to fulfill the 500,000 pre-orders.

Meanwhile their stock is valued higher than GM, who makes and sells 10 MILLION cars a year, compared to Tesla's current 100,000 cars a year.

Bottom line, their stock is ALREADY priced like they will become the biggest car company on the planet. This may actually happen, but there's not a lot of upside to the stock (except silly human emotions driving stock prices, which are certainly real).

Maybe they'll make a bunch of money with battery technology. I don't see them making enough profits with their cars to justify their stock price at this time.
Thanks for your input. I have been reading here for awhile but I'm not a big fan of index investing. I prefer to use index ETF to hedge market risk and pick some individual stocks that I like. I do adhere to some strict AA rules and I keep 50% of my money in bonds. I just thought that people here might have some interesting opinions about the stock since this is an investing forum.

I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock. If I see another electric car with better value from another brand I might just sell all my Tesla stock.

I don't think building a car is rocket science so they should be able to fix any glitches with their model 3 production.

I don't think Tesla is already priced like they will become the biggest car company on the planet. $50B market cap is still relatively small. GM is a highly leveraged business with over $100B of debt so the business of GM may be worth more than $150B (enterprise value). But I do agree that the current Tesla stock price is quite high and a long position can be very risky.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:54 pm

@gougou, I love the cars (own a Model X), but don’t own anything more than Tesla’s proportional part of TSM.

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just frank
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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by just frank » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:36 am

My wild guess is that some larger cities will announce future limits for diesel powered vehicles operating within city limits.

Following the lead of some EU cities, this will start as a congestion charge with an escalating cost over time, ending with a total ban.

I see the Tesla semi as largely a 'bet' on such future policy.

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HomerJ
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by HomerJ » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm

gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by jdb » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:11 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm
gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.
Terrible may be an overstatement. It worked for Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame. And though I am a statistically meaningless sample of one it worked for yours truly, back in 2012 when got delivery of the Model S and stock was below $70. We should have bought the stock of the maker of the first Apple computer we bought in late 1980s. Not to say I am advising purchase of stock at current valuations, like everyone else I know nuthin. But could go up as easily as could go down. Now if I was in market for semi would be ordering one, did you see the drivers seating position? But we are digressing.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by psteinx » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:17 pm

I suspect there's a recall effect to this - you can more easily recall the woulda coulda shoulda investments (in companies making products you like) when said companies go on to prosper and see a soaring stock price. Easier to forget similar instances where the parent company flounders subsequently.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by gougou » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:31 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm
gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.
But it has worked for me so far. Assuming the market is relatively efficient and has already priced most factors into the current stock price, then my personal view is my edge.

And it's not 10% of my money, it's 5% since I have 50% in bonds/CDs.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by iamlucky13 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:43 pm

gougou wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:31 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm
gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.
But it has worked for me so far. Assuming the market is relatively efficient and has already priced most factors into the current stock price, then my personal view is my edge.

And it's not 10% of my money, it's 5% since I have 50% in bonds/CDs.
"Relatively" efficient is right, and a potential flaw in the idea. The market is not perfectly efficient, and you're not the only person who invested in Tesla based on personal sentiments, rather than an attempt at evaluating it. Pretty much everybody I know who has mentioned owning Tesla said the same thing.

Even their main investor is publicly and consistently on-record as not being personally as concerned about losing money as in undertaking projects that he likes.

Basically, Tesla seems to be one of the stocks most heavily affected by this sort of thinking, and as I understand it therefore one of the least likely to be efficiently priced.

Your investment is your own prerogative, of course. I'm just finding it interesting to discuss the behavior of Tesla's stock and my view of their prospects compared to yours, rather than trying to convince you to sell it.

It's also interesting to know we have some non-index investors hanging out around here. I'm not surprised. I think it's overall a good investing and finance forum even if individual stock picks and active funds don't get much discussion.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Lonestarz » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:51 pm

This tread is all over the place. I have found in my career the best engineers are the ones who can translate something technical into easy to understand concepts.

All electric motors I have seen do not have active cooling - everything from the AA powered kids toys to the 3’ diameter by 5’ long motors on pipeline compressors.

Energy used in travel has components - power to accelerate and power to maintain speed (rolling friction/wind resistance). Weight should impact rolling resistance (by how much?) but changes to acceleration should be minimal once you’re up to speed due to regeneration. Therefore I don’t know if you can really compare the metrics from a car to a semi but I do believe that Tesla has delivered on speed/power/range for his other products - curious as to any specific examples I missed where the engineering side of his statements were erroneous (compared to his manufacturing estimates)?

I myself wanted to buy Tesla stock but was always too high P:E that I couldn’t justify it.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by HomerJ » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:06 am

jdb wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:11 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm
gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.
Terrible may be an overstatement. It worked for Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame.
Peter Lynch looked at the numbers too. He started with "Hey, my daughters are buying a lot from this new store", but he didn't just go out and buy 10,000 shares based on that.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:54 pm

Lonestarz wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:51 pm
This tread is all over the place. I have found in my career the best engineers are the ones who can translate something technical into easy to understand concepts.

All electric motors I have seen do not have active cooling - everything from the AA powered kids toys to the 3’ diameter by 5’ long motors on pipeline compressors.

Energy used in travel has components - power to accelerate and power to maintain speed (rolling friction/wind resistance). Weight should impact rolling resistance (by how much?) but changes to acceleration should be minimal once you’re up to speed due to regeneration. Therefore I don’t know if you can really compare the metrics from a car to a semi but I do believe that Tesla has delivered on speed/power/range for his other products - curious as to any specific examples I missed where the engineering side of his statements were erroneous (compared to his manufacturing estimates)?

I myself wanted to buy Tesla stock but was always too high P:E that I couldn’t justify it.
Power and energy are related but distinct. Power relates to how fast you can accomplish work, while energy relates to how much total work you can do.

There are limits to how closely a car and a truck can be compared, which is why further upthread, in a vacuum of technical information from Tesla, I started with a truck-to-truck comparison. I used the car-to-car comparison mainly as a reality check to make sure my other method was not suggesting worse performance than the car. I expect slightly better efficiency from the truck, and my reality check showed I had made a comparison that suggested actually twice the efficiency from the truck.

When I found other engineers had examined electric truck potential based on a drag and energy analysis and arrived at worse numbers from this method than my own comparisons, I viewed that as further corroboration that 500 mile range at max vehicle weight is doubtful.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:21 pm

ray.james wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:40 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 7:09 pm
As an engineer with some experience with commercial vehicles, I'd like to know his battery specs then.

Doing an energy comparison with a 40% thermal efficiency diesel getting 6mpg, a 95% efficient electric truck would need a 1430 kWh battery. With the best lithium ion cells I know of in mass production (Sanyo NCR18650GA), the battery pack will weigh at least 11,000 pounds for the cells only (not counting structure, wiring, and cooling system), and cost $232,000 at the $162/kWh Bloomberg Finance estimates industrial volume prices have dropped to as of this summer. A Freightliner costs about $150,000 for the full truck.

Alternate check on my math
Model S:
270 miles x 4500 pounds / 85 kWh = 7.1 ton-miles/kWh
1200 pound battery = 2.0 pounds battery per ton-mile capacity

Tesla Semi:
500 miles x 80,000 pounds / 1430 kWh = 14.0 ton-miles/kWh
11,000 pound battery = 0.55 pounds battery per ton-mile capacity

Comparing those, the figures I'm using appear generous with regards to giving credence to the claims.

A more rigorous analysis recently came up with higher numbers of around 2000 kWh for a 600 mile range, based on real average payloads, drive cycles, and total of drag plus other resistances.
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/ac ... tt.7b00432
Agree, if the specs mentioned were true at that efficiency, it is pretty much a crazy battery technology upgrade.

Also the leap might need as big as you state. At 0.36 coefficient drag, it is pretty beats even pickup trucks resistance. I would imagine rolling resistance is way low as well. Given the spec on charging 400 miles in 30 minutes -- this pretty much is impossible unless they had a breakthrough on battery tech side or each cell of multiple packs charging separately?(they did mention new roadster uses 2170 cell which are 2x storage at 50% volume~= 4x gains--if we can say that.)
I don't believe there's any new breakthrough in battery tech. Based on the connector for the semi, they're charging 8 battery packs in parallel. As others have said, I'm guessing they also increased the voltage too. Last but not least, Tesla's EPA application for the Model 3 long range (80kWh pack) states that it can supercharge at 525A compared to 225A for the Model S/X, and I wouldn't be surprised if that was a conservative estimate. Tesla also didn't specify if that was 400 miles fully loaded or 400 miles empty. My guess is empty, but we'll find out later.

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by gougou » Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:58 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:43 pm
"Relatively" efficient is right, and a potential flaw in the idea. The market is not perfectly efficient, and you're not the only person who invested in Tesla based on personal sentiments, rather than an attempt at evaluating it. Pretty much everybody I know who has mentioned owning Tesla said the same thing.
I never said I didn't analyze the stock and financial statements of the company. I like the cars they make - the look, the economics, the software, their charging network. And I believe millions more people (especially in China) will buy Tesla cars in the near future. And this is what I think is still not completely priced into the current stock price.

Currently Tesla is a $50B company with about $11B revenue per year with high potential to triple their revenue in the next 2 years. If they choose to not turn a profit in order to increase market share/EV adoption I'm perfectly OK with that.
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:06 am
jdb wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:11 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:50 pm
gougou wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:12 pm
I like Tesla's product and that's the main reason I am buying Tesla's stock.
That is a TERRIBLE reason to have 10% of your money in a stock.
Terrible may be an overstatement. It worked for Peter Lynch of Fidelity Magellan fame.
Peter Lynch looked at the numbers too. He started with "Hey, my daughters are buying a lot from this new store", but he didn't just go out and buy 10,000 shares based on that.
I don't understand this comparison. I said they have a product I like is the "main reason", but I did also check their financials.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:16 pm

I would be very curious what the megacharger takes for it's input voltage. I'm also curious what the cost for a charge would be to the truck driver. I know from doing the math that Tesla's Model S savings calculator uses assumptions that don't work where I live. They keep changing the calculator and now they're no longer giving the assumptions for a gasoline car. Well, I know what my local gas, electric costs are and my car's mpg. So where 100 miles in a model S according to Tesla is $4.01, in my area and electric rates, it's $6.35. It says I'll save $8.84 in gas. Funny, my calculations with my car, my gas cost, my 100 mile run costs $8.00. So yes, I save $1.65 for the 100 miles, but the car costs 4 times what a new replacement of my car would cost.

I'm wondering if this stretching of the truth is going to extend to the truck. They say the truck will pay for itself in 2 years. What if it turns out that it's really 20 years. Or that it's actually more expensive than an existing truck because someone's broken down on the highway and the nearest Tesla repair facility is 450 miles away. That's quite a tow bill. Then what? Get on the list for the next available appointment and sit on your hands for 2 weeks? Sorry.....I'm not buying it and will stay far away from this negative P/E stock.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:23 pm

gougou wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:58 pm
iamlucky13 wrote:
Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:43 pm
"Relatively" efficient is right, and a potential flaw in the idea. The market is not perfectly efficient, and you're not the only person who invested in Tesla based on personal sentiments, rather than an attempt at evaluating it. Pretty much everybody I know who has mentioned owning Tesla said the same thing.
I never said I didn't analyze the stock and financial statements of the company. I like the cars they make - the look, the economics, the software, their charging network. And I believe millions more people (especially in China) will buy Tesla cars in the near future. And this is what I think is still not completely priced into the current stock price.

Currently Tesla is a $50B company with about $11B revenue per year with high potential to triple their revenue in the next 2 years. If they choose to not turn a profit in order to increase market share/EV adoption I'm perfectly OK with that.
That's good to know. From what you said before, I had the impression your investment was mainly based on the personal sentiments.

I'm generally taking it as assumed that revenue tripling will occur, but that doesn't really make me comfortable with the share price. Profitability is not solely a matter of how much they choose to reinvest in R&D and capital investments. Pricing is going to be a challenge, too, especially as more EV's enter the market.

The new Roadster is an investment I understand, as it targets a known feature (speed) that EV's are proven to be capable of fulfilling and that customers will pay premium prices for, but the truck I'm having trouble with. That said, it already caught my attention that the truck seems to be using commonality on some important components where possible, like the drive motors, and I'm guessing some of the power control components, too. I do see some potential for the vehicle, but it does not look like a slam dunk to me.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by TravelGeek » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:29 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:16 pm
I'm wondering if this stretching of the truth is going to extend to the truck. They say the truck will pay for itself in 2 years. What if it turns out that it's really 20 years. Or that it's actually more expensive than an existing truck because someone's broken down on the highway and the nearest Tesla repair facility is 450 miles away. That's quite a tow bill. Then what? Get on the list for the next available appointment and sit on your hands for 2 weeks? Sorry.....I'm not buying it and will stay far away from this negative P/E stock.
The target “consumer” for the truck is very different from the Model S/3/X buyer. I don’t think they are going to rely on some online calculator to do their fleet purchasing decisions. It either meets their needs or it doesn’t. I have no idea what it will be.
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:16 pm
So yes, I save $1.65 for the 100 miles, but the car costs 4 times what a new replacement of my car would cost.
You compared it to a Model S comparable car that costs 1/4 the price of the Tesla? Or a “normal” non-luxury vehicle? (I am personally not interested in buying a luxury vehicle, so I also have no interest in the Model S)

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by gougou » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:34 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:16 pm
So where 100 miles in a model S according to Tesla is $4.01, in my area and electric rates, it's $6.35. It says I'll save $8.84 in gas. Funny, my calculations with my car, my gas cost, my 100 mile run costs $8.00. So yes, I save $1.65 for the 100 miles, but the car costs 4 times what a new replacement of my car would cost.
100 miles for a model S costs about 30KWh of electricity so your electricity rate is about 21c/KWh. But if you use their free supercharging it's 0. If you use some off-peak rates it should be much lower than 21c/KWh.

$8 of gas for 100 miles that means about 3 gallon for 100 miles so 33 mpg. Cheapest Model S is $74K (before incentives) so 1/4 of that is $18.5K. You are comparing a luxury sedan with a $18.5K entry level car.

Model 3 is expected to cost only 22KWh per 100 miles and it is $35K before incentives. So even using your 21c/KWh it costs $4.62/100miles and you save $3.38.

I got my Model S 75 RWD for $68K before $10K incentive and I am saving money every year vs my Porsche Macan S. I expect Model 3 buyers will have similar conclusions to go EV vs ICE.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Leif » Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:14 pm

Tamales wrote:
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:28 pm
A fully-loaded semi that can do 0-60 in 5 seconds? That sounds potentially dangerous given the size, and potential cargo shifting. And what about when the truck is empty and you have a hot-head boy-racer driver?
No driver has experience controlling that combination of power weight and size in an 18-wheeler. It's a weapon.
And I hope it has brakes to match.
I believe the 5 seconds is with only the tractor, not fully loaded. Fully loaded (80,000 pounds) is still impressive at 20 seconds. Breaks are assisted with battery regen with your foot off the accelerator pedal.
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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by 4nursebee » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:45 pm

There are a couple bits of misinformation being discussed that are different from Musk talked about in the longer (first link in thread) talk.
1. Info was for fully loaded trucks aka worst case scenario
2. He did compare to rail, with 3 trucks interlinked he can beat rail rates!
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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by 240U » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:59 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:14 am
aaarggg, no price listed for the Roadster :-( I think if I can do "OMY" for 20 more years, I might be able to afford it :-)
$250K for founders edition (sold out) $250K reservation fee
$200K for base offering $50K reservation fee

I hope this helps.

Bryan

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by 240U » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:02 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:07 am
If you want to buy Roadster when it becomes available, all you have to do is to put the full purchase price of $250K as deposit right now for promised delivery in 2020. DualTomato needs to get on the list so that rest of BH can live vicariously.
Only with the funders edition. For the base edition you only need $50K :happy

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Re: Tesla truck unnveil

Post by 240U » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:09 pm

emoore wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 6:01 pm
sunny_socal wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:44 pm
Shallowpockets wrote:
Fri Nov 17, 2017 5:18 pm
Too bad they can't make a swappable battery pack. National truck stops like Pilot could have a bank of them. Sort of like swapping out my empty propane tank at Walmart.
Could be a seperate trailer, right behind the cab. So cab, battery pack, load haul trailer. Then they just have to unhook and swap it out. Would be smart if Tesla itself fronted the infrastructure cost and placement of these.
Range is of importance, but so is time to charge. For our urban, suburban uses like the cars we can wait for a recharge. No information has been given yet on that recharge info, only for tentative range.
I'm hoping for newer technology, something like super capacitors or carbon nanotube batteries. Having piles of Lithium batteries isn't exactly 'green' nor are the Lithium mines:
Image
Sorry but that's much much more green than anything we have right now. Eventually batteries will get better for the environment but even now they are much better than burning oil.
Yes because this is so much worse that 210,000 gallons of crude poured out over the countryside. :?

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by 240U » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:18 pm

Tamales wrote:
Sat Nov 18, 2017 12:28 pm
A fully-loaded semi that can do 0-60 in 5 seconds? That sounds potentially dangerous given the size, and potential cargo shifting. And what about when the truck is empty and you have a hot-head boy-racer driver?
No driver has experience controlling that combination of power weight and size in an 18-wheeler. It's a weapon.
And I hope it has brakes to match.
No! An empty tractor can do 0-60 in 5 secs.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by wrongfunds » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:45 pm

$250K for founders edition (sold out) $250K reservation fee
Tesla took deposit on 1000 founders editions. That is cool quarter Billion dollar cash collected by Tesla without having to deliver anything but just a dream!

Tell me any other company which can do that.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by iamlucky13 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:01 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:45 pm
$250K for founders edition (sold out) $250K reservation fee
Tesla took deposit on 1000 founders editions. That is cool quarter Billion dollar cash collected by Tesla without having to deliver anything but just a dream!

Tell me any other company which can do that.
Not actually in that kind of magnitude, but Paul Moller has made an entire life's career out of impressing potential customers to financially commit to his projects with nothing delivered but a dream.

Not that I think Musk is a scam artists like Moller. I'm actually a fan of Musk. It's just that ability to draw in enthusiastic investors is not a clear indicator of success.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:46 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:45 pm
$250K for founders edition (sold out) $250K reservation fee
Tesla took deposit on 1000 founders editions. That is cool quarter Billion dollar cash collected by Tesla without having to deliver anything but just a dream!

Tell me any other company which can do that.
To be fair, they had to deliver on the S and the X, after all the major manufacturers said that Hydrogen vehicles were the future and that Tesla wouldn't succeed. I imagine any other manufacturer in another industry (or even in auto manufacturing) that can do what Tesla did would also be able to generate a similar number/amount in terms of reservations.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Inframan4712 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:59 pm

Musk is an interesting guy. I wouldn’t buy the stock but I’d remind all the naysayers about the truck in this thread to look back at the skeptics who said Musk was crazy for claiming he could land a first stage rocket, much less reuse one. Or that he could meet his promised launch cadence. I read so many posts by people with engineering and even rocketry backgrounds citing formulas and physics, etc. Well, they were wrong.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by Lonestarz » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:11 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:54 pm
Power and energy are related but distinct. Power relates to how fast you can accomplish work, while energy relates to how much total work you can do.

There are limits to how closely a car and a truck can be compared, which is why further upthread, in a vacuum of technical information from Tesla, I started with a truck-to-truck comparison. I used the car-to-car comparison mainly as a reality check to make sure my other method was not suggesting worse performance than the car. I expect slightly better efficiency from the truck, and my reality check showed I had made a comparison that suggested actually twice the efficiency from the truck.

When I found other engineers had examined electric truck potential based on a drag and energy analysis and arrived at worse numbers from this method than my own comparisons, I viewed that as further corroboration that 500 mile range at max vehicle weight is doubtful.
Yes, I read through the info provided above. There were lots of approximations compounding on each other that really made it questionable. We just assume 40% efficiency for a Diesel engine? No drivetrain loss or discount for older engines (these vehicles run for a million miles and I doubt they are always in top shape)

Even if the battery weighed 11k lbs based on your estimates, that still leaves about 9k lbs for cab and structure before it matches a 20k conventional rig.

So assuming that the engineers at Tesla actually did calculations with real numbers and probably assumes some realistic improvements 10% improvement over current battery in 2 years, etc. it really doesn’t sound so far fetched.

Again, haven’t seen any misrepresentation of product specs from Tesla - just supply chain delays. I think they can deliver their product, just not in mass.

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Re: Tesla truck unveil

Post by 4nursebee » Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:09 am

Preliminary pricing released, again amazing.

https://electrek.co/2017/11/22/tesla-se ... ric-truck/
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