Is Florida Over, 2017

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kayle
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Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by kayle » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:14 pm

I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate?

Because I have a property in Sarasota, a lot I wanted to build something on, and I was working on plans, and I have started to feel like maybe it's the dumbest thing in the world to do, and I should look north. Every single person I mention my plans to just says, "are you crazy? Can you afford for your house to be worthless in 10 years?"

That is quite different from the reaction you'd have gotten even 3 years ago. Even if they are wrong and I hope for everyone in Fla. they are, the fact that they think that, is pretty scary from an investment standpoint. If I wanted to live there until i died, then perhaps it's just "whatever, who cares, enjoy it while it lasts." But if I think I may want to move elsewhere someday, I'd like my equity to not have taken a huge hit in comparison to other markets, I guess.

And florida is just feeling riskier than it used to. By a lot.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Valuethinker » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:33 pm

kayle wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:14 pm
I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate?

Because I have a property in Sarasota, a lot I wanted to build something on, and I was working on plans, and I have started to feel like maybe it's the dumbest thing in the world to do, and I should look north. Every single person I mention my plans to just says, "are you crazy? Can you afford for your house to be worthless in 10 years?"

That is quite different from the reaction you'd have gotten even 3 years ago. Even if they are wrong and I hope for everyone in Fla. they are, the fact that they think that, is pretty scary from an investment standpoint. If I wanted to live there until i died, then perhaps it's just "whatever, who cares, enjoy it while it lasts." But if I think I may want to move elsewhere someday, I'd like my equity to not have taken a huge hit in comparison to other markets, I guess.

And florida is just feeling riskier than it used to. By a lot.
If you mean in a financial sense then everyone has a view.

If you mean otherwise, for non financial reasons, then we cannot discuss that here by Forum rules. It is to each person to research the evidence and take a view. Recency effect of course plays a role in how we think about these things.

I have noted here the Rolling Stone article on Miami and I think that's worth a read by anyone considering moving there-- but that does not mean it is correct. I will not even give you the link-- that would simply get this shut down. Other parts of Florida I do not have a strong view or at least no sense of timing (I don't know enough about Florida).

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:37 pm

This thread is now in the Personal Consumer Issues forum (where to live).
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Atgard » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:33 pm

Fortunately, I am at a mountainous 14 feet above sea level (that qualifies as the "highlands" in Florida), so the worst we get is the occasional dolphin swimming by the front yard. :mrgreen:

But seriously, I would certainly not buy coastal property or anything on Miami Beach. Politics aside, Miami Beach now floods regularly, and as someone pointed out, being on a bed of limestone makes seawalls ineffective. They are currently spending lots of money trying to raise roads and install pumps, but that seems like a temporary amelioration at best.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by bottlecap » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:50 pm

No one knows what the market will do.

I very much doubt that land in Sarasota will be worthless. That's just foolish talk.

But your guess in real estate is as good as anyone else's.

JT

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Gill » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:58 pm

Where is your lot in Sarasota? I own property there as well and I'm at 30 feet elevation. Never occurred to me that I might have seawater washing over my home. :o
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by smitcat » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:18 pm

bottlecap wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:50 pm
No one knows what the market will do.

I very much doubt that land in Sarasota will be worthless. That's just foolish talk.

But your guess in real estate is as good as anyone else's.

JT

Agreed 100% - just as if areas where there are quakes, fires, river flooding, tornadoes, and hurricanes would be greatly affected.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Marylander1 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:47 pm

bligh wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:26 pm
If you are youngish, you may see the impact in your lifetime, if you are in your late 50s you might be long gone before it gets bad. Who knows?
There are coasts already being abandoned due to flooding. Just like stock prices for a company going under, the loss tends to happen slowly, then all at once. People are often surprised by long-term change because we think linearly, but nature often follows a square, cubic, or exponential curve.

The Uppards of Tangier Island, Virginia transitioned from land to abandoned marsh in 1928, and now the main island is headed that way.
Two years ago, the Army Corps of Engineers projected 25-50 years of habitability remained, but you can see the land disappearing and what was dry five years ago is now marsh. I certainly wouldn't buy land there, or lowland coasts anywhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tangier%2C_Virginia

NY Times: Flooding of Coast Has Already Begun
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/04/scie ... begun.html

-Marylander1

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by jebmke » Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:10 pm

Marylander1 wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 3:47 pm
The Uppards of Tangier Island, Virginia transitioned from land to abandoned marsh in 1928, and now the main island is headed that way.
Two years ago, the Army Corps of Engineers projected 25-50 years of habitability remained, but you can see the land disappearing and what was dry five years ago is now marsh. I certainly wouldn't buy land there, or lowland coasts anywhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tangier%2C_Virginia
All up and down the Eastern Shore. Holland Island was one of the latest to completely go. This picture was taken in 2009 - a year before it fell into the bay.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Holl ... _house.jpg
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by BarbK » Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:04 pm

And yet Riverfront and Oceanfront property keeps going up.

I live on a barrier island in E Central Florida. The housing market is robust. I remember after the '04 hurricanes, house prices skyrocketed.

The cost to insure has been a problem for a long time; and getting insurance without wind coverage is not allowed. To minimize expense, I elected to go with a 10% hurricane deductible (2% is the minimum) meaning I need $70K of damage before a single cent is paid. Many of my neighbors go bare or liability only.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by JBTX » Sun Oct 15, 2017 5:06 pm

I grew up in FL and perhaps I will go back part time when we retire. I would consider investing in real estate but wouldn’t put so much money into it such that a sustantial and non insurable loss seriously affected my retirement savings.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Dude2 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:04 pm

FL native here. I don't even understand the question. Are we talking about hurricanes? I've lived through dozens of hurricanes. Please understand that there are differences in perspectives depending on where you live and what you are used to. For example, if I were in the middle of those fires in California right now, I would be scared to death. However, a hurricane is a shrug my shoulders thing, like a blizzard or Nor'easter might be to you.

Our population continues to grow. Our schools are getting better. Technology is enriching all of our lives. Can we see the glass as half full, please?

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by sambb » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:14 pm

isnt inland (orlando) much safer from hurricanes?

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by denovo » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:14 pm

Everyone has an opinion on whether or not housing will go up or down. None of us have any credibility on the topic. :happy

Dude2
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Dude2 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:23 pm

sambb wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:14 pm
isnt inland (orlando) much safer from hurricanes?
Not really. Orlando's been hit pretty hard.

People in California have managed to deal with the earthquake situation. I think our building codes are similarly effective at hurricanes.

Personally, I have never been affected or known anyone that was affected by a sinkhole.

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Pajamas
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Pajamas » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:07 am

Florida is not over, but I would seriously consider the location before buying a house or apartment there or anywhere else that is subject to frequent floods or other natural disasters, erosion, etc. I would not consider buying a house in a likely flood zone unless it were elevated nor would I consider buying an apartment in a building in an area with routine flooding caused by high tides or heavy rain, as happens along some of the coastal areas with increasing frequency.

Those types of high-risk areas are now at a point of inflection, not just for people, but also for flora and fauna. Abandonment is more appropriate than trying to fight the natural forces in some areas.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:03 am

Pajamas wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:07 am
Florida is not over, but I would seriously consider the location before buying a house or apartment there or anywhere else that is subject to frequent floods or other natural disasters, erosion, etc. I would not consider buying a house in a likely flood zone unless it were elevated nor would I consider buying an apartment in a building in an area with routine flooding caused by high tides or heavy rain, as happens along some of the coastal areas with increasing frequency.

Those types of high-risk areas are now at a point of inflection, not just for people, but also for flora and fauna. Abandonment is more appropriate than trying to fight the natural forces in some areas.
That is the hard part, as NYC area is finding after Sandy. Getting people to give up.

A home is most peoples most important asset so they don't give it up easily. If an area is disfavoured because of flooding, it just becomes cheaper, and people who cannot afford more expensive homes move in (or stay) and/ or a certain type of landlord.

The reality is there are big chunks of developed countries that cannot be defended at a reasonable cost. Some cannot, practically, be defended. The Dutch are struggling with this because they are the proverbial canary in the coal mine on this one.

They should be abandoned. Coastal wetlands, generally, are defences against flooding, and it's precisely those that have been (over) developed in the last 50 years.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by KSOC » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:39 am

It will seem "over" until the north has a really bad winter again or Florida goes quiet for a few years. I love living in Florida. To me, hurricanes are bigger, longer, bad thunderstorms. Some of us feel it's worth it. Getting around my locale it's obvious there is very little damage to property that wasn't caused by trees. Not sure if we'll retire here but if we don't if won't be because of Hurricanes.

@kayle - if you do build, spend a few extra bucks for hurricane protection. Whole home generator or transfer switch for portable generator. I bought lightweight polycarbonate panels custom sized for my glass/window areas. Easy for wife & I to pop on the house in a few hours.
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Rupert » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:06 am

Dude2 wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:04 pm
FL native here. I don't even understand the question. Are we talking about hurricanes? I've lived through dozens of hurricanes. Please understand that there are differences in perspectives depending on where you live and what you are used to. For example, if I were in the middle of those fires in California right now, I would be scared to death. However, a hurricane is a shrug my shoulders thing, like a blizzard or Nor'easter might be to you.

Our population continues to grow. Our schools are getting better. Technology is enriching all of our lives. Can we see the glass as half full, please?
OP is not talking about hurricanes. He's talking about rising sea levels, e.g., this projection, "According to the Southeast Florida Regional Compact Climate Action Plan, updated in October 2015, sea level will rise 6 to 10 inches by 2030, 14 to 26 inches by 2060 and 31 to 61 inches by 2100."

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by alrick » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:11 am

RENT AND RELAX!!

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just frank
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by just frank » Mon Oct 16, 2017 7:37 am

My parents live near Sarasota, and get why they chose to move there. Inland and at 17 ft.

They report that a lot of the barrier islands and coastal areas are seeing salt water intrusion into the ground water from overuse. You'd think with all the rain they'd be aok...but between the porous bedrock and lack of elevation, it is hard for a river or canal to move much water sideways.

I guess one could imagine building some massive water infrastructure projects, or if desalination and energy keep getting cheaper, going that route...but I'm not a civil engineer.

If the future state is cash strapped because of sea level rise effects, where will the money for building out a massive water system come from?

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by samsoes » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:02 am

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TeamArgo
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by TeamArgo » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:21 am

I am living on a St. Augustine barrier island, 1/4 mile horizontally and 18 feet vertically from water's edge. Property values continue to rise with the increasing value of vacation rentals in the area, but they have yet to reach pre-2008 values. Downtown St. Augustine continues to experience occasional and slightly more frequent flooding, but again property values remain fairly high because tourism is booming. Some parts of the area are in decline, especially north of town where storms have wiped out sand dunes and a few houses that were built way to close to the ocean have collapsed. Some neighborhoods to the south of town were built on marsh fill done in the 1920's, and they have faired poorly with flooding and are beginning to show some abandonment. You can't paint Florida with a broad brush, as the vulnerability to ocean levels varies mile by mile along the coastline and does not extend very far inland. :!:
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Taylor Larimore
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am

Bogleheads:

I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level.

What has risen is property value and taxes.

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by smitcat » Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:54 am

In general what we do know about these weather trends is insignificant as to what might happen. These forecasts are based upon very recent past when we have had the ability to reasonably measure some of our climate and environment. The amount of change over historic times is huge compared to what we have measured so far and the causes are also large , dynamic and mostly unknown. From geologic evidence we know that the climate has changed in very large ways both rhythmically and suddenly from many sources long before we had a presence here. Just a few things we really do not understand that can/will affect these future locals:
- the off axis ongoing change in the earths tilt
- large volcanic events which occlude the skies
- typical and rhythmic changes in the suns coronal emissions
Any of these can certainly add or subtract to the climate temps and water levels in a much larger and faster way then we have been monitoring.

IMHO - I use common sense when looking at the future in my own vision of time horizons.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by MrDogg » Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:38 am

Ahh, if it were only true. Anything that discourages people from moving to our vanishing paradise could be considered by many of us old time residents as a good thing. Currently people are moving into Florida at the rate of 1000 per day and this is not going to change. In fact I think it will increase. What used to be laid back small towns are turning into suburbs of Long Island.

Post is partially in jest, I will concede that growth does have some benefits.

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Pajamas
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Pajamas » Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:25 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am
Bogleheads:

I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level.

What has risen is property value and taxes.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Your subjective evaluation of sea levels in the Miami area is not in accord with objective scientific measurements.

https://www.google.com/search?q=sea+lev ... +over+time

Captain_Video
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Captain_Video » Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:27 am

Rising sea levels are not the problem in Florida. The problem is that the weight of all the Northerners moving to Florida is causing it to sink into the ocean. So please Northerners stay up there in your overtaxed frozen wastelands and don't move here and exacerbate the problem! 8-)

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by protagonist » Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:15 pm

kayle wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:14 pm
I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate?

You could always rent.

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MrDogg
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by MrDogg » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:09 pm

kayle wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:14 pm
would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate?
The answer is an emphatic yes to both parts of the question from an awful lot of people who are moving here by the droves. The developers don't anticipate any let up as new housing construction continues at a fast pace. Thousands of new units are being built in Ft. Lauderdale right now!

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by JohnFiscal » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:28 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am
I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level.
Aw shucks, Taylor. That is Incredible!
Last edited by JohnFiscal on Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.

JohnFiscal
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by JohnFiscal » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:33 pm

I live in Sarasota; due to a job transfer some years ago. Our home is at 35 foot elevation above sea level (and about 3 miles from water's edge), which is almost as much as it gets in the county.

It's nice enough but I can't say that it's really my cuppa tea. We miss cooler weather, young people, and actual turning of seasons to denote the passage of time. WSLR is an awesome local radio station though.

Very likely looking to move away when I retire.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by MrDogg » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:37 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am
Bogleheads:

I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level.

What has risen is property value and taxes.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Point well taken. Watch the 1960 movie "Where The Boys Are" and you will see the ocean distance away from A-1-A (across from the Elbo Room) and compare it to today. The distance from the ocean to A-1-A is exactly the same today. As a high schooler here 57 years ago I remember such and it's nice to see that it was documented by Hollywood.

Ditto on the risen property value and taxes.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by FullYellowJacket » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:50 pm

There are various sea level rise maps you can consult that show the effect of various levels of rise. If the goals of The Paris Agreement come to pass then most of Florida will be fine. I just wouldn't want to be anywhere near flood plains. Unfortunately some amount of sea level rise is already baked in, and Floridians will have to adjust.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by FullYellowJacket » Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:53 pm

MrDogg wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 2:37 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am
Bogleheads:

I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level.

What has risen is property value and taxes.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Point well taken. Watch the 1960 movie "Where The Boys Are" and you will see the ocean distance away from A-1-A (across from the Elbo Room) and compare it to today. The distance from the ocean to A-1-A is exactly the same today. As a high schooler here 57 years ago I remember such and it's nice to see that it was documented by Hollywood.

Ditto on the risen property value and taxes.
That is a much better way to measure sea level change than actual measurements over time!

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:44 pm

Several off-topic comments related to climate change have been removed. The discussion was getting derailed. As a reminder, see: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Captain_Video » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:48 pm

I live on the east coast of Florida about 1/4 mile from the ocean and my house is 12 ft AMSL. Throughout the 40 years I have lived here and during all the hurricanes and nor'easters we have experienced the ocean water has never come anywhere near my house. The closest was probably 1/4 mile minus 100 ft.

During the geological history of Florida at times the peninsula has been 200 ft below sea level and at other times it has been twice the size it is now. So it is possible we are in the submersion phase now. However the sun may trick us and get just a tad cooler and cause another ice age reversing this. In any case these scenarios take tens of thousands of years to play out. Humans will find ways to adapt, especially with the help of AI. Of course there is the last resort - Mars.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by roflwaffle » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:48 pm

Dude2 wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:23 pm
sambb wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:14 pm
isnt inland (orlando) much safer from hurricanes?
Not really. Orlando's been hit pretty hard.

People in California have managed to deal with the earthquake situation. I think our building codes are similarly effective at hurricanes.

Personally, I have never been affected or known anyone that was affected by a sinkhole.
Well, for now. Who knows how things will pan out when the big one hits.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by roflwaffle » Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:58 pm

kayle wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:14 pm
I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate?

Because I have a property in Sarasota, a lot I wanted to build something on, and I was working on plans, and I have started to feel like maybe it's the dumbest thing in the world to do, and I should look north. Every single person I mention my plans to just says, "are you crazy? Can you afford for your house to be worthless in 10 years?"

That is quite different from the reaction you'd have gotten even 3 years ago. Even if they are wrong and I hope for everyone in Fla. they are, the fact that they think that, is pretty scary from an investment standpoint. If I wanted to live there until i died, then perhaps it's just "whatever, who cares, enjoy it while it lasts." But if I think I may want to move elsewhere someday, I'd like my equity to not have taken a huge hit in comparison to other markets, I guess.

And florida is just feeling riskier than it used to. By a lot.
I doubt your home would be worthless in 10 years, but sea level rise is something to consider. I believe most estimates range from 2-6 feet by 2100, and 10+ feet is likely over longer periods of time. I think the probability of abrupt sea level rise, while still small, has increased substantially with more research/work being done on the subject.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_s ... antarctica

Even if a few feet won't flood your property, what would it do to the infrastructure around you? I wouldn't be surprised to see people in some areas leave because nearby infrastructure became too costly to maintain as opposed to leaving because their own homes were to susceptible to flooding.
Last edited by roflwaffle on Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by dave_k » Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:21 pm

My wife and I have a vacation home on a west coast barrier island in south FL - Fort Myers Beach. It's right on the beach on stilts, and the beach is only a few feet above high tide.

We had quite a scare with Irma - the day before it hit the storm surge was predicted to be over the roof! We got very lucky it changed course and we had almost no damage. It's been hit by hurricanes before and had some roof damage, but no major storm surge. That part of the island has actually had the beach grow farther out because of how sand has been deposited, but there are no guarantees if a storm hits it just wrong.

Even with all that, we plan to retire there, and unless the island is pretty much wiped out, we'd probably rebuild if necessary and stay put after a hurricane. Insurance is expensive, but house prices keep going up. They seem to be back up above their previous peak. It stays rented most of the time. We think it's worth it because of the great location, and apparently loads of other people do also. Waterfront it still very desirable and will probably remain so in general even with sea levels rising, although it will vary by location.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Tycoon » Mon Oct 16, 2017 4:49 pm

I don't know about Florida, but I'm 968ft above sea level and if I walk out of my back door and dig 1.5ft deep I find sea shells. I want my beach front property back. It's amazing how the ground underneath us moves.
...I might be just beginning | I might be near the end. Enya | | C'est la vie

Lillibelle
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Lillibelle » Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:25 pm

Love your advice, Mr. Dogg:

"Watch the 1960 movie "Where The Boys Are" and you will see the ocean distance away from A-1-A (across from the Elbo Room) and compare it to today. The distance from the ocean to A-1-A is exactly the same today. As a high schooler here 57 years ago I remember such and it's nice to see that it was documented by Hollywood." Great cast, great movie.

Any relation to Gidget's Moondoggie, perchance? ;)


p.s. Thread brings back memories of my Dad happily pointing out the accretion taking place on his slice-of-heaven FL ocean front home.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:45 am

Captain_Video wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:48 pm
I live on the east coast of Florida about 1/4 mile from the ocean and my house is 12 ft AMSL. Throughout the 40 years I have lived here and during all the hurricanes and nor'easters we have experienced the ocean water has never come anywhere near my house. The closest was probably 1/4 mile minus 100 ft.

During the geological history of Florida at times the peninsula has been 200 ft below sea level and at other times it has been twice the size it is now. So it is possible we are in the submersion phase now. However the sun may trick us and get just a tad cooler and cause another ice age reversing this. In any case these scenarios take tens of thousands of years to play out. Humans will find ways to adapt, especially with the help of AI. Of course there is the last resort - Mars.
Unfortunately for those in Miami, it is all happening faster than that 10,000+ year time frame. Current sea level rise is 3-4mm pa (see my post to Taylor below for the historic data) -- there's at least some indication from polar conditions that it might speed up. And Miami sits on water permeable limestone so the infrastructure will go long before the city floods.

[OT comments removed by moderator prudent]
Last edited by Valuethinker on Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:03 am, edited 1 time in total.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:52 am

roflwaffle wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:48 pm
Dude2 wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:23 pm
sambb wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:14 pm
isnt inland (orlando) much safer from hurricanes?
Not really. Orlando's been hit pretty hard.

People in California have managed to deal with the earthquake situation. I think our building codes are similarly effective at hurricanes.

Personally, I have never been affected or known anyone that was affected by a sinkhole.
Well, for now. Who knows how things will pan out when the big one hits.
Earthquake resistance is to a threshhold and after that, catastrophic failure.

The Japanese tsunami hit probably the best prepared nation in the world for tectonic instability. Buildings generally survived.

The chief geologist of Japan had gone to the nuclear power plant builders and warned that tsunami waves might over top the power plants. He mentioned the 1630 tsunami and pointed to the geological evidence of same. The reply was "we have no written records of that". But the Japanese people of the past centuries had left stone markers to warn not to build below that line- -which were often ignored.

The North American version of this is the tsunami of 1700. It's there in the Japanese records, but without the associated earthquake (because it took place thousands of miles away off America). And it's there in the First Peoples' legends (an older one may be the Creation Myth of the Haida people in BC)-- but no written record. Geologists have only confirmed this one in the last few years.

The Pacific NW tsunami is coming and it appears to be late.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:56 am

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:43 am
Bogleheads:

I live in Miami on the shore of Biscayne Bay. I grew up as a little boy next door. I see little difference in the water level.

What has risen is property value and taxes.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Taylor

The official data for Miami is available:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltre ... id=8723170
The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 0.78 feet in 100 years.
This is important information for infrastructure and civil defence planning so the US government keeps a close eye on it. Norfolk VA, the home of the US Navy, is one of the lowest lying cities in the USA (NOLA is lower still, Miami I think about the same level) and so the USN has a particular interest in these matters.

The current global sea level rise is 3-4 mm p.a. In areas like the US north of about NYC, and in Scandinavia, there is still "isostatic rebound" from the end of the last ice age i.e. a general rise in the land mass with the absence of the weight of ice on it. That could be more than 1 mm pa. In addition due to currents, seabottom depth tidal forces and the fact that the Earth is not a perfect sphere, sea height is different in different parts of the globe.

Valuethinker
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Valuethinker » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:06 am

roflwaffle wrote:
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:58 pm
kayle wrote:
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:14 pm
I know we have this discussion every now and then, but as I review past threads, and think about this summer, I feel like it's time to ask again: would you move to Florida or invest in Florida real estate?

Because I have a property in Sarasota, a lot I wanted to build something on, and I was working on plans, and I have started to feel like maybe it's the dumbest thing in the world to do, and I should look north. Every single person I mention my plans to just says, "are you crazy? Can you afford for your house to be worthless in 10 years?"

That is quite different from the reaction you'd have gotten even 3 years ago. Even if they are wrong and I hope for everyone in Fla. they are, the fact that they think that, is pretty scary from an investment standpoint. If I wanted to live there until i died, then perhaps it's just "whatever, who cares, enjoy it while it lasts." But if I think I may want to move elsewhere someday, I'd like my equity to not have taken a huge hit in comparison to other markets, I guess.

And florida is just feeling riskier than it used to. By a lot.
I doubt your home would be worthless in 10 years, but sea level rise is something to consider. I believe most estimates range from 2-6 feet by 2100, and 10+ feet is likely over longer periods of time. I think the probability of abrupt sea level rise, while still small, has increased substantially with more research/work being done on the subject.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_s ... antarctica

Even if a few feet won't flood your property, what would it do to the infrastructure around you? I wouldn't be surprised to see people in some areas leave because nearby infrastructure became too costly to maintain as opposed to leaving because their own homes were to susceptible to flooding.
Abrupt sea level rise is a possibility but it's hard to put a probability on it.

With gradual sea level rise the question is how far forward does the real estate market look?

From the data on UK leasehold v. freehold in Central London, my guess is it is something like a 3% real discount rate on the private value of RE. There are reasons why one would think it would be lower for a city-wide effect. At a guess, if it's a reality in 50 years the market will be worrying about it in 20.

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HomerJ
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by HomerJ » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:09 am

Florida is flatter than Kansas.

In 100 years, it may be 80% underwater. But maybe not.

In 10-30 years, most of it will still be fine.

Miami's flooding will get worse and worse though, I definitely wouldn't invest there, even in the short term. You can't even put up walls around Miami, because it's built on top of limestone, and the water seeps up from underneath. They have upgraded their pumps though, and are staying ahead of it right now, but first major power outage, that city is going to look like Venice.

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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by Pajamas » Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:17 am

Valuethinker wrote:
Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:56 am
the USN has a particular interest in these matters.
The USN hasn't watched "Where the Boys Are"?

SMH

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prudent
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Re: Is Florida Over, 2017

Post by prudent » Tue Oct 17, 2017 1:07 pm

Topic locked due to continued discussion of climate change, which is off-topic by forum policy.

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