New or used Lexus ES300h?

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Kababayan
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New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Kababayan » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm

I'd like a little input on whether to buy a new or used Lexus ES300 hybrid. My wife and I tend to drive our cars until they die and we do regular maintenance, so I'm not opposed to buying new because we will have it for a long time. I am considering the Lexus hybrid because they are reliable and safe, and we are in a position where we can buy a new one but I don't know if we really need to. I am not a car person so I wanted to get the thoughts of people who may know cars better than I do.

I can buy a new 2017 for about $40,000, a 2014 with 36,000 miles for $28,000, or a 2013 with 57,000 miles for a little over $20,000. My thinking is that I can buy two used Lexus' for close to the price of a new one (both of our cars are coming up for replacement.) I grew up driving cars that always broke down so 57,000 miles sounds like a lot on a used car, but that may not be the case. Any input from car people or Lexus owners would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.

msk
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by msk » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:52 pm

I have a Lexus LS460, 10-years old, my wife a Lexus ES350, 4 years old. We both do low mileage, around 12k p.a. each. Both have been totally reliable, including all the electronics (the LS460 came truly loaded) but I am changing out mine because it has a black interior and the vinyl parts (it's mostly leather) sweat and get sticky in 100+ degree weather. It's a manufacturing defect that is well known on the web. When this happened in newer cars it seems Lexus replaced the panels for free. Mine started sweating after 8 years. It's also not an issue with non-black interiors. Otherwise I would have no hesitation in keeping it for another 5 years, or whenever the heat really damages the cosmetics too much (e.g dashboard splitting, roof lining dangling, etc.). At 10 years old it still looks pristine, except for that vinyl sweat on 100+degree days. You are unlikely to go wrong buying either new or used, but if used, do not go for a black interior if your climate gets 100+degree weather.

Kababayan
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Kababayan » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:40 pm

I really appreciate your insight. Thank you very much.

spectec
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by spectec » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:48 pm

My wife and I recently went through a similar decision process back in January. We found a 2013 Lexus 300h at Carmax with 32,000 miles for $26.000. Because this was our first hybrid, we decided to take the extended warranty for $1,500. So far we have driven about 6,000 miles total. Still trying to figure out some of the electronic features :), but we love the car overall. No service issues in this short ownership period, and our fuel is averaging about 32 mpg.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

Ervin
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Ervin » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:20 pm

Lexus is the most reliable car maker. The risks of buying used should be minimal, provided you have a trusted mechanic look at the car first (even if it's certified used).

Kababayan
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Kababayan » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:33 pm

Thank you all very much for your replies.

flyingaway
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by flyingaway » Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:46 pm

Kababayan wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm
I'd like a little input on whether to buy a new or used Lexus ES300 hybrid. My wife and I tend to drive our cars until they die and we do regular maintenance, so I'm not opposed to buying new because we will have it for a long time. I am considering the Lexus hybrid because they are reliable and safe, and we are in a position where we can buy a new one but I don't know if we really need to. I am not a car person so I wanted to get the thoughts of people who may know cars better than I do.

I can buy a new 2017 for about $40,000, a 2014 with 36,000 miles for $28,000, or a 2013 with 57,000 miles for a little over $20,000. My thinking is that I can buy two used Lexus' for close to the price of a new one (both of our cars are coming up for replacement.) I grew up driving cars that always broke down so 57,000 miles sounds like a lot on a used car, but that may not be the case. Any input from car people or Lexus owners would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.
2017 New, $40,000
2014 Used for 3 years $28,000

I normally assume a new car can be used efficiently for 10 years, so the average cost for your car per year is $4,000. For 3 years, it would be $12,000, which is the 2014 car discounted for. However, the first 3 years of a new car should have bigger depreciation. So I would not buy a 2014 car (in your case) for $28,000, no matter how other people like to buy used cars. I will definitely buy the new card.

BanquetBeer
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by BanquetBeer » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:04 pm

I tend to plot out points to find depreciation. Then compare if early depreciation is worth the cost.

If you're $28k in 3 years and you can sell a 10 year old for 7k

It will cost you something like 3k extra

(28-7)/(10-3) = 3 k/yr late depreciation vs 4K/yr early depreciation
1k yr difference * 3 years

for buying new. How much is the 3k worth to you vs how much do you value a new car? I made up the numbers but probably somewhat close. I suspect if 3-4K makes a big impact to you over 7-10 years you wouldn't be buying a Lexus in the first place. However you might get some nice 2 year off lease models with better value.

spectec
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by spectec » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:50 pm

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:46 pm
Kababayan wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm
I'd like a little input on whether to buy a new or used Lexus ES300 hybrid. My wife and I tend to drive our cars until they die and we do regular maintenance, so I'm not opposed to buying new because we will have it for a long time. I am considering the Lexus hybrid because they are reliable and safe, and we are in a position where we can buy a new one but I don't know if we really need to. I am not a car person so I wanted to get the thoughts of people who may know cars better than I do.

I can buy a new 2017 for about $40,000, a 2014 with 36,000 miles for $28,000, or a 2013 with 57,000 miles for a little over $20,000. My thinking is that I can buy two used Lexus' for close to the price of a new one (both of our cars are coming up for replacement.) I grew up driving cars that always broke down so 57,000 miles sounds like a lot on a used car, but that may not be the case. Any input from car people or Lexus owners would be greatly appreciated. Thank you in advance.
2017 New, $40,000
2014 Used for 3 years $28,000

I normally assume a new car can be used efficiently for 10 years, so the average cost for your car per year is $4,000. For 3 years, it would be $12,000, which is the 2014 car discounted for. However, the first 3 years of a new car should have bigger depreciation. So I would not buy a 2014 car (in your case) for $28,000, no matter how other people like to buy used cars. I will definitely buy the new card.
I like your approach. How does mileage affect your calculations?
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

flyingaway
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by flyingaway » Tue Sep 12, 2017 9:05 pm

spectec wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:50 pm
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:46 pm

2017 New, $40,000
2014 Used for 3 years $28,000

I normally assume a new car can be used efficiently for 10 years, so the average cost for your car per year is $4,000. For 3 years, it would be $12,000, which is the 2014 car discounted for. However, the first 3 years of a new car should have bigger depreciation. So I would not buy a 2014 car (in your case) for $28,000, no matter how other people like to buy used cars. I will definitely buy the new card.
I like your approach. How does mileage affect your calculations?
I just used a rough model, not so precise to consider the mileage.

One also needs to factor into the dealer's cost into consideration. If a used car is traded several times, each time the dealer needs to make some money. So the true value of a used car decreases accordingly. I think the only used cars that I might consider buying are dealer's loaner car, or cars sold directly by rental companies. But I never had the opportunity.

Kababayan
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Kababayan » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:21 am

BanquetBeer wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:04 pm
I tend to plot out points to find depreciation. Then compare if early depreciation is worth the cost.

If you're $28k in 3 years and you can sell a 10 year old for 7k

It will cost you something like 3k extra

(28-7)/(10-3) = 3 k/yr late depreciation vs 4K/yr early depreciation
1k yr difference * 3 years

for buying new. How much is the 3k worth to you vs how much do you value a new car? I made up the numbers but probably somewhat close. I suspect if 3-4K makes a big impact to you over 7-10 years you wouldn't be buying a Lexus in the first place. However you might get some nice 2 year off lease models with better value.
This is why I go to Bogleheads for advice. Thank you very much for your time.

Kababayan
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Kababayan » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:23 am

flyingaway wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:46 pm
Kababayan wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm
I normally assume a new car can be used efficiently for 10 years, so the average cost for your car per year is $4,000. For 3 years, it would be $12,000, which is the 2014 car discounted for. However, the first 3 years of a new car should have bigger depreciation. So I would not buy a 2014 car (in your case) for $28,000, no matter how other people like to buy used cars. I will definitely buy the new card.
Thank you for this. I like the idea of buying new since I plan on keeping it until it dies.

btenny
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by btenny » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:40 am

Spectec. I thought the ES300 was supposed to get 40 MPG. You said yours is only getting 32 MPG. That seems pretty poor for a hybrid in summer driving. Any reason you are getting so low a number?

Good Luck...

bloom2708
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by bloom2708 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:43 am

Good information so far.

I know you can get a perfect 300h buying it new.

I like the challenge of finding a slightly used one for the best price. I see a 2013 with 32k miles for $23.6k in our region. Cars.com search with a 100 mile radius.

In the end you may decide to buy new. Keeping that other $16k or whatever the difference is invested might be worth it. Either way, you are still getting a quite new/nice car.

Good luck and let us know what you end up with.
"We are here not to please but to provoke thoughtfulness" Unknown Boglehead | | Want to buy something? Watch this first: https://vimeo.com/41152287

lomarica01
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by lomarica01 » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:50 am

I have bought 2 used ones a 01 RX300 with 44,000 miles and 07 ES350 with 31,000. My wife was a little concerned with the miles on the RX300, it now has 212,000 miles on it so it really did not matter how many miles were on it used. One thought I would get it checked out by a mechanic and a bodyshop. My ES350 was in a prior collision that did not show up on the carfax report. I should have done better homework so there always is a slight risk buying used.

So in summary if you want to save some money buy used and don't worry about the miles as these are very good reliable cars
good luck

tampaite
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by tampaite » Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:58 am

Kababayan wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm

I can buy
a new 2017 for about $40,000
a 2013 with 57,000 miles for a little over $20,000.
Go for 2013. You are getting it half-off and probably with 75% life remaining.

new2bogle
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by new2bogle » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:31 pm

I have a Toyota Camry hybrid, 2010 with ~70k miles on it. I am looking to get rid of it due to decreasing MPG with aging batteries. My friend had the same car in model year 2009 and sold his since it was acting much worse than mine.

My other friends with Priuses have no battery issues after 15 years.

I am not sure what the battery life will be on an ES 300H - like the Camry or like the Prius?

I am also looking at getting a new/used Lexus but will go for a non-hybrid this time. Previously we had a 2007 RX 350 - absolutely no problems. My extended family has nothing but Toyotas/Lexuses. Excellent cars in every aspect.

snowman
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by snowman » Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:49 pm

tampaite wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 11:58 am
Kababayan wrote:
Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:17 pm

I can buy
a new 2017 for about $40,000
a 2013 with 57,000 miles for a little over $20,000.
Go for 2013. You are getting it half-off and probably with 75% life remaining.
As a car guy (non-Toyota/Lexus owner), that's exactly how I see it. My only worry would be the battery, but that could be an issue with either choice.

oysterboy
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by oysterboy » Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:49 pm

I bought my first Lexus 400LS almost 20 years ago, had zero problems with it for 210,000 miles when I traded it in. Also had a 330 RX, which had no problems for 12 years. I was persuaded by a friend 3 years ago to buy a used car from CarMax. I had never bought a used car. Bought a 2013 Lexus 350 ES with 13,000 miles on it for around $35,000, around $10,000 less than new. I also got a generous trade-in on the 330 RX. I've put 37,000 miles on the car and have had no problems. To me, given my prior Lexus experience, the 13,000 miles on the car at purchase was virtually irrelevant. My wife's Subaru, bought new, will probably be replaced in the next 2-3 years, and I will probably use CarMax again.

spectec
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by spectec » Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:09 pm

btenny wrote:
Wed Sep 13, 2017 9:40 am
Spectec. I thought the ES300 was supposed to get 40 MPG. You said yours is only getting 32 MPG. That seems pretty poor for a hybrid in summer driving. Any reason you are getting so low a number?

Good Luck...
Yes, I know exactly why the mileage is lower than expected. My wife still drives the Lexus the same way she drove her 1999 Olds Aurora that came equipped with a Cadillac engine. She prefers jackrabbit starts, quick stops, and pushes the speed limit. I think eventually she will change her technique, but 17 years of habits are hard to break. Prior to that she drove a Camaro Z-28 for about 10 years, so we are making huge progress with respect to mileage overall. But right now the EV mode indicator is just an amusing diversion for her. :)
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

Kababayan
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by Kababayan » Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:24 pm

Thank you all very much for your responses. All great input and advice. Thanks again.

inbox788
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by inbox788 » Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:43 pm

Didn't see or missed if anyone commented about hybrid repair expertise, parts availability and costs. Do you have a mechanic that can figure out things? Are you going to DIY? The experience in ICE cars is generally good, but lower volume cars have harder time finding some parts. The hybrid part makes the numbers even lower and parts even more specialized, plus finding a mechanic who will be able to do the work at a reasonable rate (and not gaining experience on your dime) is going to be more difficult. The only car that has a good amount of community knowledge is the Prius and even then, it's not all that easy depending on where you are and who you know. That alone keeps me from considering used hybrids at this time, despite Lexus reliability reputation and value pricing on used hybrids.

spectec
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by spectec » Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:54 am

Here's a possible resource. http://thehybridshop.com/battery-conditioning/

This isn't necessarily a recommendation. Prior to our current purchase, I took a used hybrid to them for evaluation. ( My daughter and son-in-law were contemplating the purchase of a hybrid vehicle). I think the charge was $150 to run a diagnostic of the drive battery and produce a written performance report. The result was a bit equivocal, but sufficient to recommend that they pass up the vehicle.

Now that we have purchased a hybrid vehicle, I'm going to keep tabs on this company just in case an issue arises after the warranty period.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

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ram
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by ram » Sat Sep 16, 2017 1:03 pm

viewtopic.php?t=146906

With the help of 'Livesoft advisory service' I was able to get a LS at 40% off at 3 yrs certified used. Running fine for 2 yrs now. No issues. Changed a set of tires and synthetic oil twice.
Ram

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sunny_socal
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by sunny_socal » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:09 pm

inbox788 wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:43 pm
Didn't see or missed if anyone commented about hybrid repair expertise, parts availability and costs. Do you have a mechanic that can figure out things? Are you going to DIY? The experience in ICE cars is generally good, but lower volume cars have harder time finding some parts. The hybrid part makes the numbers even lower and parts even more specialized, plus finding a mechanic who will be able to do the work at a reasonable rate (and not gaining experience on your dime) is going to be more difficult. The only car that has a good amount of community knowledge is the Prius and even then, it's not all that easy depending on where you are and who you know. That alone keeps me from considering used hybrids at this time, despite Lexus reliability reputation and value pricing on used hybrids.
I think that's FUD. IME Toyota hybrids are some of the most reliable cars around. Take it to a dealer if necessary, they'll know how to fix it.

inbox788
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Re: New or used Lexus ES300h?

Post by inbox788 » Tue Sep 19, 2017 4:15 am

sunny_socal wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:09 pm
inbox788 wrote:
Fri Sep 15, 2017 11:43 pm
Didn't see or missed if anyone commented about hybrid repair expertise, parts availability and costs. Do you have a mechanic that can figure out things? Are you going to DIY? The experience in ICE cars is generally good, but lower volume cars have harder time finding some parts. The hybrid part makes the numbers even lower and parts even more specialized, plus finding a mechanic who will be able to do the work at a reasonable rate (and not gaining experience on your dime) is going to be more difficult. The only car that has a good amount of community knowledge is the Prius and even then, it's not all that easy depending on where you are and who you know. That alone keeps me from considering used hybrids at this time, despite Lexus reliability reputation and value pricing on used hybrids.
I think that's FUD. IME Toyota hybrids are some of the most reliable cars around. Take it to a dealer if necessary, they'll know how to fix it.
Yes, Toyota has a reputation for reliability, but sometimes you get unlucky and things do break down and I don't want the possibility of being in this guys shoes:
Dealer wants $6000 to replace hybrid battery
https://priuschat.com/threads/dealer-wa ... ry.156087/

At least with the Prius you might hack a $37 parts and 3 hours labor fix.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvEtiQXtTFc

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