To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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Big Dog
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Big Dog » Mon May 21, 2018 10:53 am

A few lucky people may get the $35k car with the full tax credit. However, I certainly would not count on that. I'm sure Tesla is hoping that people will see that and opt for the long battery to get the full tax credit.
Exactly, but highly unlikely since full tax credit will likely be gone by Dec 31 (at the latest) or Sep 30 (at the earliest). Just depends how well Tesla can continue to deliver to Canada and delay US deliveries at the end of June.

FoolStreet
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Mon May 21, 2018 11:12 am

Big Dog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 10:49 am
3. How much of the $1000-$1500 for an outdoor level 2 charger would be reusable if I switched to a different EV company? If I want an outdoor charger, is there a generic solution?
There are several manufacturers of L2 chargers that work with non-Tesla's. ClipperCreek and Bosch come to mind. You could install one of those other charges and which would work with a Tesla by using an adaptor.
My understanding is that you just install an outlet like a washing machine receptacle(14-50). Then you can use whichever plug system you want. Tesla or otherwise. I believe there is a good explanation here:

https://www.tesla.com/support/home-char ... stallation

For me, I could just use my dryer outlet (I have a gas dryer and my electric outlet in the garage for my dryer is therefore unused).

OR - I am considering adding a 200amp external power drop to the side of my house now. This would future proof me to be able to charge two electric cars in the next 3 years or so. I would meter this 200amp separately, so that the Utility would charge the EV car rate, and I could use time of day for that drop. The cost from the Utility is the same. The cost of the electrician should be nominally the same whether dropping 100amp or 200 amp, but there might be a higher materials cost in case the electrician needs to use higher rated connection materials.

Big Dog
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Big Dog » Mon May 21, 2018 12:32 pm

My understanding is that you just install an outlet like a washing machine receptacle(14-50). Then you can use whichever plug system you want. Tesla or otherwise. I believe there is a good explanation here:

https://www.tesla.com/support/home-char ... stallation

For me, I could just use my dryer outlet (I have a gas dryer and my electric outlet in the garage for my dryer is therefore unused).

OR - I am considering adding a 200amp external power drop to the side of my house now. This would future proof me to be able to charge two electric cars in the next 3 years or so. I would meter this 200amp separately, so that the Utility would charge the EV car rate, and I could use time of day for that drop. The cost from the Utility is the same. The cost of the electrician should be nominally the same whether dropping 100amp or 200 amp, but there might be a higher materials cost in case the electrician needs to use higher rated connection materials.
You are correct, except that its the electric dryer that needs a 220/240, not a washer. A NEMA 14-50 will work well for most folks, but it won't charge the max speed for a Tesla.

fwiw: our electrician said that the cost for a separate meter would be significantly more than the sub-panel that we added to our current 100 amp service. We don't drive much, so the payback for ToU is not worth it.

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 21, 2018 12:55 pm

Big Dog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 12:32 pm
You are correct, except that its the electric dryer that needs a 220/240, not a washer. A NEMA 14-50 will work well for most folks, but it won't charge the max speed for a Tesla.
I assume by max speed for a Tesla you don't mean supercharger-style Level 3 DC charging solution? (Is that available for homes?)

The Level 2 Wall Connector, according to https://www.tesla.com/support/home-char ... stallation would deliver 37 miles per hour on a 40 amp circuit (that's NEMA 14-150, right?) and 44 mph on any higher amp circuit (60-100 amps breakers). Doesn't seem like a huge difference to me, but it obviously depends on ones personal driving needs. 37 mph still gives you a "full tank of gas" every night.

I had a 50 amp circuit put in the garage when our house was built a few years ago, and recently got an electrician to put a NEMA 14-50 outlet once I had decided to buy a LEAF.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Big Dog » Mon May 21, 2018 1:17 pm

Yess, 44 amps is the fastest that you can currently* charge an M3 with a 60 amp circuit. (Of course, some of the Model S's will charge faster.) Since you had a 50 amp circuit already in the garage you were in great shape. I only had a 110/120 in the garage and it was my Ground Fault for the bathrooms, so added another outlet. Since the labor was the same, I had the electrician put in the 60 amp circuit, even though I normally charge my M3 at 32 (slower and cooler -- don't ask!).

*Who knows how fast the Performance model will charge. :mrgreen:

NJdad6
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by NJdad6 » Mon May 21, 2018 2:28 pm

No personal interest in the Tesla 3 but just saw Consumer Reports will not recommend it. Too many issues including poor brakes. Also saw a report on Motorweek. They were not as critical but did say that overall fit and finish does not approach a Hyundai Elantra.

Might be worth waiting until the bugs are worked out.

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Leif
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Mon May 21, 2018 2:37 pm

Big Dog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 10:53 am
Exactly, but highly unlikely since full tax credit will likely be gone by Dec 31 (at the latest) or Sep 30 (at the earliest). Just depends how well Tesla can continue to deliver to Canada and delay US deliveries at the end of June.
I don't think timing it for the 3rd quarter should be problem. It is based on customer delivery, so if necessary they could built up their inventory in the US and deliver in July and/or ship to Canada. I think a lot of reservations in Canada were waiting on AWD. Now that is available for order. I expect blow out 3rd and 4th quarters. I'm concerned what will happen to Tesla sales in 2019. In other countries the loss of tax incentives had a big negative impact (Netherlands, Denmark, Hong Kong). Hopefully, the base 35k model will attract a lot of sales even with reduced incentives. But, regardless, revenue will take a hit.

Perhaps they are thinking that shipping to the rest of the world will save their bacon in 2019.
Last edited by Leif on Mon May 21, 2018 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Mon May 21, 2018 3:27 pm

Looks like a lot of beta testing going on by paying customers. What happens in 6 months when Tesla is no longer the "it" car?

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/21/tes ... s-edmunds/
"Sixteen weeks into ownership, we've had so many issues with our Model 3 that we started a shared Google Doc to catalog various warning messages, necessary screen resets and general failures," they wrote in the most recent long-term update. Indeed, the number of issues Edmunds has had, especially in regards to the touchscreen and audio system, is shockingly atypical for a new car. They also observed a potentially dangerous problem with Autopilot that ultimately led to Tesla issuing a successful software update.
Good God read this prospective Model 3 buyers. I mean this is ridiculous.

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2 ... -2018.html
Forget that this is a "cutting-edge" EV with a cult following. That's irrelevant if Tesla wants to be anything more than a footnote in automotive history. Our Model 3 cost us $56,000, and by that standard alone, the ownership experience so far has been unacceptable. But this is no ordinary $56K car. We put down a $1,000 deposit to get on a two-year waiting list for this car and it's falling apart.
Last edited by matjen on Mon May 21, 2018 3:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Mon May 21, 2018 3:39 pm

matjen wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 6:07 pm
See that kind of, sort of sounds like a bait and switch! :-)
Image

BAIT
In terms of price, well, of course, it will be $35,000."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-nngkM ... e&t=18m52s

SWITCH
Image
I guess I just don't see it. If that was "$27,500", then yes, bait and switch. But it was $35k and will still be $35k. But that's fine, we can agree to disagree.

DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Mon May 21, 2018 3:47 pm

I put down my $1,000 deposit for a Model 3 on April 3, 2016 after I learned I could get one for $35k.

That's 2 years, 1 month, 18 days ago (778 days). Still no sign of the $35k car.

Musk is a snake oil salesman. Definitely bait and switch.

Very glad I cancelled my order on 2/25/17.

Later, i used the $35k to short TSLA. Made lots of money since.

PhilosophyAndrew
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Mon May 21, 2018 4:05 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 3:47 pm
I put down my $1,000 deposit for a Model 3 on April 3, 2016 after I learned I could get one for $35k.

That's 2 years, 1 month, 18 days ago (778 days). Still no sign of the $35k car.

Musk is a snake oil salesman. Definitely bait and switch.

Very glad I cancelled my order on 2/25/17.
We aren’t especially car savvy, but, based on the press we had read about Tesla, figured it would likely be 2019 before delivery. That met our needs fine, so we weren’t upset about paying the initial deposit so long before delivery. It turned out that my spouse wanted the extended range battery, so we’ll get ours sooner — delivery is supposed to be first week of June.

I don’t see anything unethical with the company choosing to meet demand for the higher-margin models before producing the basic model. It isn’t as if the company is forcing folks to purchase an unwanted model — prospective customers still have the opportunity to purchase the basic model once they are produced....

DanMahowny, it’s interesting that your antipathy for Tesla led you to behave in such an un-Bogleheadish way. Shorting individual stocks is too exciting a game for me!


Andy.

DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Mon May 21, 2018 4:19 pm

PhilosophyAndrew wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 4:05 pm
DanMahowny, it’s interesting that your antipathy for Tesla led you to behave in such an un-Bogleheadish way. Shorting individual stocks is too exciting a game for me!
Thanks Andy, "un-Bogleheadish" is a kind way to say "stupid", I guess. Shorting a stock IS STUPID. But what the heck, I'm well aware of the risks involved. Perhaps I should cover the position and exit, but I think TSLA is going to ZERO. It's something I grapple with frequently.

If TSLA surges to $1,000 or higher, I'll still be here to take all the abuse I deserve.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Mon May 21, 2018 4:26 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 4:19 pm
PhilosophyAndrew wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 4:05 pm
DanMahowny, it’s interesting that your antipathy for Tesla led you to behave in such an un-Bogleheadish way. Shorting individual stocks is too exciting a game for me!
Thanks Andy, "un-Bogleheadish" is a kind way to say "stupid", I guess. Shorting a stock IS STUPID. But what the heck, I'm well aware of the risks involved. Perhaps I should cover the position and exit, but I think TSLA is going to ZERO. It's something I grapple with frequently.

If TSLA surges to $1,000 or higher, I'll still be here to take all the abuse I deserve.
I worry too that Tesla the company will fail, and yet didn’t object when my spouse chose to purchase a Model 3. We wouldn’t be human if we always acted rationally!

I’m sure one can make money shorting stocks, but I don’t haven the confidence or expertise to do that. Boring mutual funding investing suits me.

Andy.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Mon May 21, 2018 4:45 pm

I am so active on this thread because it is the way I release doubt about TSLA stock and company, and now, unfortunately also the Model 3 specifically.

Thank you Bogleheads for keeping me from shorting TSLA. :D I hope those that move forward with a Model 3 have way, way better luck than Edmunds and Consumers Report.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

Longdog
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Mon May 21, 2018 6:10 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:13 am
Congrats Longdog. Enjoy! Curious as to what the price delta is between your build and the equivalent Model S 75D? Tesla won't let us outsiders ;-) configure a Model 3 without first siging up which is rather annoying.

For those awaiting the 35K model here is the latest as of last night from Musk:
With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.
I would bet on 8 months at the short end before any are made. Any in any type of numbers? Who knows.
The 75D has a range of 259 miles, whereas the Model 3 Long Range has a range of 310 miles. So, I’m not sure what is equivalent between them. Which features or attributes would make them equivalent? The Model 3 isn’t really a “baby” Model S.
Steve

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Mon May 21, 2018 6:16 pm

Longdog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:10 pm

The 75D has a range of 259 miles, whereas the Model 3 Long Range has a range of 310 miles. So, I’m not sure what is equivalent between them. Which features or attributes would make them equivalent? The Model 3 isn’t really a “baby” Model S.
Understood. That is a pro for that version of the Model 3 for sure. All I know is a basic 75D Model S with AWD and the Premium Package is $79.5 before rebates on their configurator. Was wondering what a Model 3 with the big battery, AWD and the Premium package was.
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Taylor Larimore
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Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm

Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

sc9182
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by sc9182 » Mon May 21, 2018 6:44 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
Good pointer.

Only until: fix the problem with long stopping distance and inconsistent emergency braking response. Definitely a thing to be concerned about! hope Tesla responds faster..

CR earlier kept other models in penalty box, until Tesla's updated firmware update fixed such problems. Soon after the fix CR put that model back on Recommend list.

On the plus side, CR reported: "its handling was reminiscent of a Porsche 718 Boxster. In fact, our testers found the Model 3 thrilling to drive"

ie, 4 door Tesla 3 offering driving similar thrill of 2 door Porsche - at lesser net cost..

https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids ... mendation/
Last edited by sc9182 on Mon May 21, 2018 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Longdog
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Mon May 21, 2018 7:26 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:16 pm
Longdog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:10 pm

The 75D has a range of 259 miles, whereas the Model 3 Long Range has a range of 310 miles. So, I’m not sure what is equivalent between them. Which features or attributes would make them equivalent? The Model 3 isn’t really a “baby” Model S.
Understood. That is a pro for that version of the Model 3 for sure. All I know is a basic 75D Model S with AWD and the Premium Package is $79.5 before rebates on their configurator. Was wondering what a Model 3 with the big battery, AWD and the Premium package was.
$55k before rebates for the Model 3 AWD plus Premium Upgrade Package plus a non-black color. So it is a 25k difference in price.

The Performance Model 3, however, is about the same price as that Model S. I have a feeling Tesla basically looked at the price of a BMW M3 and chose a price that would compete with it as a strategic play. That's probably a high profit margin vehicle for Tesla, because there will be some BMW M3 aficionados willing to give Tesla a shot for their next vehicle. I suspect BMW and Audi will be losing some sales in the short term. I've heard BMW already has.
Steve

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TimeRunner
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TimeRunner » Mon May 21, 2018 10:10 pm

"A Model 3 with a $35,000 price will be the rarest of the rare," said Kevin Tynan, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. "Perhaps the second-most-collectible Tesla ever, behind the one floating around in space." Source: LA Times Article: "What happened to the 'affordable' $35,000 Tesla Model 3?"

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/l ... story.html
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FoolStreet
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by FoolStreet » Mon May 21, 2018 10:30 pm

sc9182 wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:44 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
Good pointer.

Only until: fix the problem with long stopping distance and inconsistent emergency braking response. Definitely a thing to be concerned about! hope Tesla responds faster..

CR earlier kept other models in penalty box, until Tesla's updated firmware update fixed such problems. Soon after the fix CR put that model back on Recommend list.

On the plus side, CR reported: "its handling was reminiscent of a Porsche 718 Boxster. In fact, our testers found the Model 3 thrilling to drive"

ie, 4 door Tesla 3 offering driving similar thrill of 2 door Porsche - at lesser net cost..

https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids ... mendation/

Good, It looks like a trouble ticket has been created!

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/sta ... 29377?s=21

balofagus
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by balofagus » Mon May 21, 2018 10:40 pm

I’ve had mine a little over a month now, 7500 km overall and that one 2300 km road trip. I’m not a great judge of a car: the nicest car I’ve owned before this was a Ford Fiesta, I’ve never been ‘round a track, and I couldn’t drive stick if asked. But, I sure like it!

I do hate the door handles, they’re awful. The door release “button” on the inside is nearly as bad.

Longdog
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by Longdog » Tue May 22, 2018 3:30 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 10:30 pm
sc9182 wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:44 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
Good pointer.

Only until: fix the problem with long stopping distance and inconsistent emergency braking response. Definitely a thing to be concerned about! hope Tesla responds faster..

CR earlier kept other models in penalty box, until Tesla's updated firmware update fixed such problems. Soon after the fix CR put that model back on Recommend list.

On the plus side, CR reported: "its handling was reminiscent of a Porsche 718 Boxster. In fact, our testers found the Model 3 thrilling to drive"

ie, 4 door Tesla 3 offering driving similar thrill of 2 door Porsche - at lesser net cost..

https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids ... mendation/

Good, It looks like a trouble ticket has been created!

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/sta ... 29377?s=21
That is a good way to respond. I’m very encouraged by this. Perhaps mine will include the physical modification (if necessary) before delivery. If not, a commitment to fix it in a reasonable time would be fine with me.

This reminds me a little of when Lexus was first launched as a brand, and there was a major safety issue that came up early on. Although it was an embarrassment to them, Lexus took it seriously and handled it professionally, and they made themselves into a well-respected luxury brand.
Steve

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue May 22, 2018 6:40 am

Longdog wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 7:26 pm
$55k before rebates for the Model 3 AWD plus Premium Upgrade Package plus a non-black color. So it is a 25k difference in price.
Ah, thank you. A large delta for sure. I thought it was smaller in that configuration.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by bob60014 » Tue May 22, 2018 8:03 am

I cant say its a snake oil scheme but It seems to me that at its core the Tesla series can be a fine product but doesn't have the manufacturing prowess, a good supply line and some quality control issues. It appears Musk has moved on and is more interested other endeavours might the time be right for him to sell it off? A company that is lagging in the electric vehicle race, has the production lines, ability and resources......Ford seems like a perfect fit.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by emoore » Tue May 22, 2018 11:04 am

bob60014 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:03 am
I cant say its a snake oil scheme but It seems to me that at its core the Tesla series can be a fine product but doesn't have the manufacturing prowess, a good supply line and some quality control issues. It appears Musk has moved on and is more interested other endeavours might the time be right for him to sell it off? A company that is lagging in the electric vehicle race, has the production lines, ability and resources......Ford seems like a perfect fit.
So how is Tesla lagging in the electric vehicle race? They make by far the most actual EVs, most of the other companies just talk about what they will have in 3-5 years. If you wanted to buy an EV (especially in the US) there are not many choices besides Tesla that aren't strictly commuter cars.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by dustinst22 » Tue May 22, 2018 11:18 am

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesl ... mycomments

It's best (imo) to wait for EV's to mature. I cancelled my order and will let others be beta testers/waste their money. I think the time to buy will be in a few years once the segment has matured. When Toyota/Honda enter the fray, that will likely be the best time to buy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Tue May 22, 2018 12:49 pm

dustinst22 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 11:18 am
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesl ... mycomments

It's best (imo) to wait for EV's to mature. I cancelled my order and will let others be beta testers/waste their money. I think the time to buy will be in a few years once the segment has matured. When Toyota/Honda enter the fray, that will likely be the best time to buy.
That would put you in the “early majority” phase of technology adoption, as opposed to the “early adopter” phase that the current set of EV customers are in.

See: https://ondigitalmarketing.com/learn/od ... -adoption/

if you’re interested in the concept of technology adoption phases.
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by dustinst22 » Tue May 22, 2018 1:00 pm

Longdog wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 12:49 pm

if you’re interested in the concept of technology adoption phases.
Yes, I'm normally an early adopter with technology. But when it comes to a depreciating asset that carries a heavy cost, financial considerations are much more important to me.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by bob60014 » Tue May 22, 2018 1:24 pm

emoore wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 11:04 am
bob60014 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:03 am
I cant say its a snake oil scheme but It seems to me that at its core the Tesla series can be a fine product but doesn't have the manufacturing prowess, a good supply line and some quality control issues. It appears Musk has moved on and is more interested other endeavours might the time be right for him to sell it off? A company that is lagging in the electric vehicle race, has the production lines, ability and resources......Ford seems like a perfect fit.
So how is Tesla lagging in the electric vehicle race? They make by far the most actual EVs, most of the other companies just talk about what they will have in 3-5 years. If you wanted to buy an EV (especially in the US) there are not many choices besides Tesla that aren't strictly commuter cars.
Might not have wrote it clearly, FORD is lagging in its development of EV compared to the rest.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Tue May 22, 2018 1:32 pm

emoore wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 11:04 am
bob60014 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:03 am
I cant say its a snake oil scheme but It seems to me that at its core the Tesla series can be a fine product but doesn't have the manufacturing prowess, a good supply line and some quality control issues. It appears Musk has moved on and is more interested other endeavours might the time be right for him to sell it off? A company that is lagging in the electric vehicle race, has the production lines, ability and resources......Ford seems like a perfect fit.
So how is Tesla lagging in the electric vehicle race? They make by far the most actual EVs, most of the other companies just talk about what they will have in 3-5 years. If you wanted to buy an EV (especially in the US) there are not many choices besides Tesla that aren't strictly commuter cars.
Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both have sold about the same number of cars as the Tesla S over the past 5 years.
The J stands for Jay

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Tue May 22, 2018 1:36 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 1:32 pm
Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both have sold about the same number of cars as the Tesla S over the past 5 years.
To be honest on Leaf, GA might have been the highest state with Leaf vehicles because of a crooked way that Nissan Dealers got a 5k state credit on leases. A lot of Leaf vehicles were leased for the last 7+ years in GA and now that state credit is removed, the sales stagnated.

Looks like Tesla would be the first manufacturer to reach the federal tax credit.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by harikaried » Tue May 22, 2018 3:58 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 1:32 pm
Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both have sold about the same number of cars as the Tesla S over the past 5 years.
Just to help provide some numbers for context:

In January, Nissan announced that they reached 300,000 Leaf deliveries (introduced 2010):
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -kicks-off

In February, Tesla indicated that they reached 300,000 vehicles produced (Model S introduced 2012):
https://insideevs.com/tesla-produced-300000-vehicles/

Currently, Chevy Volt / Ampera is probably between 150,000 to 200,000 (introduced 2010):
http://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/chevrole ... s-numbers/

Looking at just 2018 US sales estimates of "electrified" / plug-in vehicles:
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla has sold about 30% of these vehicles, both Toyota and Chevrolet around 13% each, and Nissan around 5%.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm

As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

HopeToGolf
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HopeToGolf » Tue May 22, 2018 5:28 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 3:47 pm
I put down my $1,000 deposit for a Model 3 on April 3, 2016 after I learned I could get one for $35k.

That's 2 years, 1 month, 18 days ago (778 days). Still no sign of the $35k car.

Musk is a snake oil salesman. Definitely bait and switch.

Very glad I cancelled my order on 2/25/17.

Later, i used the $35k to short TSLA. Made lots of money since.
Funny....I was bothered when Tesla didn’t launch with the AWD and maybe Performance versions. Their history was to launch with the highest margin cars and I was hoping to get mine sooner because I was willing to pay more money. In fact, I was bugged when the deposit was only $1K. It made the line longer. Since I was willing to give him $3K-$5K for two years I was hoping the deposit requirement would be higher and secure me a better spot in line.

I’m OK with him leaving the $35K buyers near the back of the line. Why should they get the tax rebate? Let’s not get into whether any of us deserve the rebate. It’s a subsidy that is going to people who can likely afford to pay more.

FoolStreet
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by FoolStreet » Tue May 22, 2018 5:47 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
“If Tesla can update the brakes over the air - an industry first - we’d be happy to retest our Model 3,” said Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ director of automotive testing.

Musk in a tweet late on Monday acknowledged the brake issue and said that the magazine’s tests had used two early versions of the car before improvements had been made.

“Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update,” Musk tweeted, saying Tesla aimed to roll out a solution a few days. “With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... IN19C?il=0

On a personal note, I am glad to see that CR did the brake test and shared the problems because it is a safety issue and gives Tesla the chance to fix it.

Furthermore, I admire that the people working for this company can turn on a dime and make the changes ASAP. It makes me optimistic about the can do attitude of the people of this great country and our willingness to innovate. We get a lot of negative news in today’s 24hr news driven world, but here we have people working hard to make this country great. I love it!

I suppose I should worry about why the brake issue was a problem to begin with, and that might give me pause, but seeing the commitment to make over the air fixes gives me more optimism.

So this helps me want to buy the car even more. If money was no object, it would be a done deal. So we will cross the bridge when I get my invitation at the end of the year. If not the 3 then definitely the Y.

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matjen
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by matjen » Tue May 22, 2018 5:57 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:47 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
“If Tesla can update the brakes over the air - an industry first - we’d be happy to retest our Model 3,” said Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ director of automotive testing.

Musk in a tweet late on Monday acknowledged the brake issue and said that the magazine’s tests had used two early versions of the car before improvements had been made.

“Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update,” Musk tweeted, saying Tesla aimed to roll out a solution a few days. “With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... IN19C?il=0

On a personal note, I am glad to see that CR did the brake test and shared the problems because it is a safety issue and gives Tesla the chance to fix it.

Furthermore, I admire that the people working for this company can turn on a dime and make the changes ASAP. It makes me optimistic about the can do attitude of the people of this great country and our willingness to innovate. We get a lot of negative news in today’s 24hr news driven world, but here we have people working hard to make this country great. I love it!

I suppose I should worry about why the brake issue was a problem to begin with, and that might give me pause, but seeing the commitment to make over the air fixes gives me more optimism.

So this helps me want to buy the car even more. If money was no object, it would be a done deal. So we will cross the bridge when I get my invitation at the end of the year. If not the 3 then definitely the Y.
And your spin on the scathing Edmunds review? I am 52 years old and have been a car person my entire life. I can not remember reading such a horrible review. Ever. Not even close. What makes it worse is that Edmunds isn't skeptical of the Tesla. Here is their initial review which is rather glowing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FESJlsKeYGo

I mean it is like a cult. No matter how bad the news/review it is somehow positive. I think this sums it up. Guy's car is trash and he is afraid to give his real name because it might offend Tesla BUT he still likes it?

Image
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 4nursebee » Tue May 22, 2018 6:14 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
I would rather expect that the i3 sales will drop off as the 3 ramps up more. The 3 will likely offer so much more per $.
I3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-i3/

3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... a-model-3/
4nursebee

FoolStreet
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by FoolStreet » Tue May 22, 2018 6:15 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:57 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:47 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
“If Tesla can update the brakes over the air - an industry first - we’d be happy to retest our Model 3,” said Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ director of automotive testing.

Musk in a tweet late on Monday acknowledged the brake issue and said that the magazine’s tests had used two early versions of the car before improvements had been made.

“Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update,” Musk tweeted, saying Tesla aimed to roll out a solution a few days. “With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... IN19C?il=0

On a personal note, I am glad to see that CR did the brake test and shared the problems because it is a safety issue and gives Tesla the chance to fix it.

Furthermore, I admire that the people working for this company can turn on a dime and make the changes ASAP. It makes me optimistic about the can do attitude of the people of this great country and our willingness to innovate. We get a lot of negative news in today’s 24hr news driven world, but here we have people working hard to make this country great. I love it!

I suppose I should worry about why the brake issue was a problem to begin with, and that might give me pause, but seeing the commitment to make over the air fixes gives me more optimism.

So this helps me want to buy the car even more. If money was no object, it would be a done deal. So we will cross the bridge when I get my invitation at the end of the year. If not the 3 then definitely the Y.
And your spin on the scathing Edmunds review? I am 52 years old and have been a car person my entire life. I can not remember reading such a horrible review. Ever. Not even close. What makes it worse is that Edmunds isn't skeptical of the Tesla. Here is their initial review which is rather glowing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FESJlsKeYGo
Matjen,

(Side note: iPhone autocorrects your name to mayhem, but I watched the Netflix series Rain over the weekend and the hero/protector of the group while traveling through a post apocalyptic wasteland was named Matjen. Ha ha)

Anyway, my personal take is that they got an early release model and it has some bugs. I also wondered why there were comments from several drivers(learning curve for each). I am always skeptical of blogs whose revenue models are to talk about problems which drives clicks.

But realistically, there are probably real issues. And I expect them to be fixed by Tesla. And I expect the new ones to be better exponentially. Each month production is shut down and improvements to the line are made. I think it shuts down this weekend.

Therefore, the number of impacted vehicles is minimal during the initial few during low production volumes. This is why they started by selling to wmployees first, the most resilient consumers. Then previous Tesla owners. Now open public.

There are other discussion boards with experiences and most love it. A few share negative issues in order for Tesla to fix them. Check out reddit or others.

I am lucky I have to wait until december at the earliest but I am optimistic.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue May 22, 2018 6:18 pm

4nursebee wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:14 pm
matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
I would rather expect that the i3 sales will drop off as the 3 ramps up more. The 3 will likely offer so much more per $.
I3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-i3/

3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... a-model-3/
Absolutely no doubt. I haven't even clicked on your links. A new i3 is way too expensive given the Bolt and an actual working Model 3. Not even close. However used ones with tiny amounts of miles are a great value for an urban person. 20K range with like 15 thousand miles.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

FoolStreet
Posts: 519
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by FoolStreet » Tue May 22, 2018 6:48 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:57 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:47 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 6:30 pm
Bogleheads:

According to this story, Consumer Reports will not recommend the Model 3:

Consumer Reports Says it Found "Big Flaws With The Tesla Model 3

Best wishes.
Taylor
“If Tesla can update the brakes over the air - an industry first - we’d be happy to retest our Model 3,” said Jake Fisher, Consumer Reports’ director of automotive testing.

Musk in a tweet late on Monday acknowledged the brake issue and said that the magazine’s tests had used two early versions of the car before improvements had been made.

“Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update,” Musk tweeted, saying Tesla aimed to roll out a solution a few days. “With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesl ... IN19C?il=0

On a personal note, I am glad to see that CR did the brake test and shared the problems because it is a safety issue and gives Tesla the chance to fix it.

Furthermore, I admire that the people working for this company can turn on a dime and make the changes ASAP. It makes me optimistic about the can do attitude of the people of this great country and our willingness to innovate. We get a lot of negative news in today’s 24hr news driven world, but here we have people working hard to make this country great. I love it!

I suppose I should worry about why the brake issue was a problem to begin with, and that might give me pause, but seeing the commitment to make over the air fixes gives me more optimism.

So this helps me want to buy the car even more. If money was no object, it would be a done deal. So we will cross the bridge when I get my invitation at the end of the year. If not the 3 then definitely the Y.
And your spin on the scathing Edmunds review? I am 52 years old and have been a car person my entire life. I can not remember reading such a horrible review. Ever. Not even close. What makes it worse is that Edmunds isn't skeptical of the Tesla. Here is their initial review which is rather glowing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FESJlsKeYGo

I mean it is like a cult. No matter how bad the news/review it is somehow positive. I think this sums it up. Guy's car is trash and he is afraid to give his real name because it might offend Tesla BUT he still likes it?

Image
Speaking from personal experience, I had a BMW that was luxurious and sporty. It was a love-hate relationship because it broke down all. the. time. And it was not cheap to fix.

But you would see me out there with Zaino and trying to learn to change my own brakes etc.

So, at worst, it can be compared to the gentleman from LA. At best, maybe we will have a true electric car for the masses. Realistically, it will be in the middle, some good, some bad, but enough to spur other manufacturers to take action and break our oil addiction.

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matjen
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Re: Consumer Reports: "Not recommended"

Post by matjen » Tue May 22, 2018 7:06 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:48 pm

Speaking from personal experience, I had a BMW that was luxurious and sporty. It was a love-hate relationship because it broke down all. the. time. And it was not cheap to fix.

But you would see me out there with Zaino and trying to learn to change my own brakes etc.

So, at worst, it can be compared to the gentleman from LA.
Unless your brand new BMW which you waited 2 years for and cost 24K more than originally promised was brought back to the dealership multiple times for body panel repair in the first three weeks and then had continued iDrive blackouts requiring the whole car to be restarted...then there is no comparison.

Is that what happened? Call me skeptical. :P

PS. I should add that the Model 3 is nowhere near being a car for the masses. We do have the Chevy Bolt, the Nissan Leaf, etc. though.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Tue May 22, 2018 7:28 pm

harikaried wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 3:58 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 1:32 pm
Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt both have sold about the same number of cars as the Tesla S over the past 5 years.
Just to help provide some numbers for context:

In January, Nissan announced that they reached 300,000 Leaf deliveries (introduced 2010):
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... -kicks-off

In February, Tesla indicated that they reached 300,000 vehicles produced (Model S introduced 2012):
https://insideevs.com/tesla-produced-300000-vehicles/

Currently, Chevy Volt / Ampera is probably between 150,000 to 200,000 (introduced 2010):
http://gmauthority.com/blog/gm/chevrole ... s-numbers/

Looking at just 2018 US sales estimates of "electrified" / plug-in vehicles:
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

Tesla has sold about 30% of these vehicles, both Toyota and Chevrolet around 13% each, and Nissan around 5%.
And a couple chinese makers have made even more EVs for domestic consumption.

VaR
Posts: 489
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by VaR » Wed May 23, 2018 10:24 am

For those waiting for the $35k base model, it's worth noting the following tweet by Musk:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/998400110156550144

Quoting from the post:
With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.
So optimistically, the $35k base model will ship 3-6 months after Tesla hits their 5k/week production target.

There are other implications of this tweet, but the above is probably the most relevant to those waiting in line.

clutchied
Posts: 520
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by clutchied » Wed May 23, 2018 10:35 am

matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:18 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:14 pm
matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
I would rather expect that the i3 sales will drop off as the 3 ramps up more. The 3 will likely offer so much more per $.
I3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-i3/

3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... a-model-3/
Absolutely no doubt. I haven't even clicked on your links. A new i3 is way too expensive given the Bolt and an actual working Model 3. Not even close. However used ones with tiny amounts of miles are a great value for an urban person. 20K range with like 15 thousand miles.
I purchased my i3 fully loaded for $17k. It had 16,000 miles on it. It's a fantastic car. I would not have purchased it for full price.

The range is limited but works for my commute so it doesn't really matter. I plug it in at night and have a full "tank" each and every day.

One other thing to keep in mind... I do 35 miles / day. In the summer I average about 4.9 miles / kWh (less in winter) which is extraordinarily efficient. Mixed highway/surface. for the Tesla kids that's like 200wh's / mi.
Last edited by clutchied on Wed May 23, 2018 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

FoolStreet
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Wed May 23, 2018 10:37 am

clutchied wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 10:35 am
matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:18 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:14 pm
matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
I would rather expect that the i3 sales will drop off as the 3 ramps up more. The 3 will likely offer so much more per $.
I3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-i3/

3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... a-model-3/
Absolutely no doubt. I haven't even clicked on your links. A new i3 is way too expensive given the Bolt and an actual working Model 3. Not even close. However used ones with tiny amounts of miles are a great value for an urban person. 20K range with like 15 thousand miles.
I purchased my i3 fully loaded for $17k. It had 16,000 miles on it. It's a fantastic car. I would not have purchased it for full price.

The range is limited but works for my commute so it doesn't really matter. I plug it in at night and have a full "tank" each and every day.
I would consider that. What year? and did you find it private party (eg craigslist) or dealer?

Edit: but then I remembered my wife vetoed the i3 because of the rear doors :-(

clutchied
Posts: 520
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by clutchied » Wed May 23, 2018 10:42 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 10:37 am
clutchied wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 10:35 am
matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:18 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:14 pm
matjen wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:03 pm
As a proud BMW i3 owner I'll point out that BMW has sold 100,000 i3s as of 2017. :D
I would rather expect that the i3 sales will drop off as the 3 ramps up more. The 3 will likely offer so much more per $.
I3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/bmw/bmw-i3/

3 sales data: http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-da ... a-model-3/
Absolutely no doubt. I haven't even clicked on your links. A new i3 is way too expensive given the Bolt and an actual working Model 3. Not even close. However used ones with tiny amounts of miles are a great value for an urban person. 20K range with like 15 thousand miles.
I purchased my i3 fully loaded for $17k. It had 16,000 miles on it. It's a fantastic car. I would not have purchased it for full price.

The range is limited but works for my commute so it doesn't really matter. I plug it in at night and have a full "tank" each and every day.
I would consider that. What year? and did you find it private party (eg craigslist) or dealer?
It was a dealer in OH (Akron/Clevelend). 2014 BEV only. It's the Andesite silver color which is less popular but it has all the options on it and was north of $50k new.

You can find them all over for that price. You'll have better luck at dealers closing in on winter as zero people buy them then.

I will say that I am seeing more of them pop us so some people are figuring out that they are a scorching deal on the used market.


It's a quality super advanced car (carbon fiber chassis, rear engine / rear drive.)


Oh FYI, my kids love the rear doors. They call my car chuckles... They really aren't an issue for me at all.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Wed May 23, 2018 11:03 am

Clutchied,

Do you have Active Cruise Control with Stop & Go on your model? If so, I highly recommend this and finding a local person to code your car for you. Turns on the BMW version of AutoPilot. They call it Traffic Jam Assist in Europe. BMW turned it off in the US for some reason. Works great below about 35-40 MPH. Above that it tends to serpentine a bit. Great for city stop and go traffic on highways, etc.

https://quidzel.com/

I have mine set up to go up to like 65 mph and it doesn't require a hand check like the Tesla system. No nagging (via coding). Certainly not safe at higher speeds but great for slow stop and go situations.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

kchico
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by kchico » Wed May 23, 2018 11:58 am

Most of the bad model 3 reviews are from early production cars. Suspension has been already updated for more comfort, wind noise at above 65mph was fixed and they added more padding to the rear seats.

Look at the forums and the latest review from TopGear. The cars that are coming out the production line right now are bastly improve and they have no issues:

https://youtu.be/1GrNv3ow9H8

clutchied
Posts: 520
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by clutchied » Wed May 23, 2018 12:35 pm

matjen wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 11:03 am
Clutchied,

Do you have Active Cruise Control with Stop & Go on your model? If so, I highly recommend this and finding a local person to code your car for you. Turns on the BMW version of AutoPilot. They call it Traffic Jam Assist in Europe. BMW turned it off in the US for some reason. Works great below about 35-40 MPH. Above that it tends to serpentine a bit. Great for city stop and go traffic on highways, etc.

https://quidzel.com/

I have mine set up to go up to like 65 mph and it doesn't require a hand check like the Tesla system. No nagging (via coding). Certainly not safe at higher speeds but great for slow stop and go situations.
Hey nice, I do have those options! I've looked into it previously but we don't have traffic where I live so it probably wouldn't be all that useful.

maybe if I have $300 to blow at some point :)

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