To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 2015 » Sat May 12, 2018 2:04 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 5:41 pm
matjen wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 4:37 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 3:42 pm
Dan, Matjen, I love this thread, so I hope that the moderators don't close it. I want to focus on the Bogle-headed dilema of whether or not to pay so darn much for the car.
...
This. I'm grateful to all who have participated as I have only recently decided a Telsa might be my next car should I ever need to buy another.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Sat May 12, 2018 2:28 pm

PhilosophyAndrew wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 6:58 am
She has configured her car, has received its VIN, and is looking forward to delivery in about three weeks. Our family has reached a point where we can afford to drive luxury cars, and I’m thrilled that my spouse will pamper herself. So, our family will be taking delivery of the Model 3 and we aren’t agonizing about the decision — jumping in to the world of EVs will be an adventure we’ll learn from and hopefully relish.
Congratulations on being able to choose this vehicle. And welcome to the EV driver family :)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by randomguy » Sat May 12, 2018 2:39 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:51 pm
matjen wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:30 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 5:41 pm
I want to focus on the Bogle-headed dilema of whether or not to pay so darn much for the car.
News today: Elon tweets that AWD specs will be announced end of next week, and that he will start taking orders for AWD in July. Since about 1/3 of the deferrals are for AWD, this is very exciting.


The second paragraph sorta kinda absolutely makes the issue raised in the first paragraph worse! Face it, they can't make a 35k car profitably so they aren't even trying. They are going the wrong way. So all yooose guyz who gave them money in advance for your mass market car...take a hike.

P.S. Latest news today is that Head of Engineering Doug Field is "taking a break" from Tesla.
You raise a relevant point because I think there are Bogleheads who wanted the Telsa Short Range (Neilpilot and Travelgeek), but couldn't wait until early 2019 to get it and needed to buy an alternative EV sooner.

My gut says that they will start building the AWD and Short Range at the same time. My assumption is that if the Short Range decreases per unit margins, it will be balanced by increased margins on the AWD, such that they continue to manage blended margins. That's my gut, but I haven't really studied their financials.

I don't know what to say about Doug Field. Some people simply do need breaks when running so hard for so long. Often times, people take breaks after they've achieved major milestones. Who knows.

My gut is they make as many high margin (long range batter, AWD,...) versions until they can meet the demand. There is no point in building a 35k car when you are selling every 50k car you can build unless battery production is the limiting step (it isn't from what I have seen published).

Model 3 production is going pretty much how every sane person expected who paid any attention to Model S or X production history. Nobody thought tesla would meet their goals or ship the low cost models for a long time. Time will tell if they can continue to ramp up production and build quality before the hoard of competitors show up over the next couple of years.

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Leif
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Sat May 12, 2018 3:35 pm

randomguy wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:39 pm
My gut says that they will start building the AWD and Short Range at the same time. My assumption is that if the Short Range decreases per unit margins, it will be balanced by increased margins on the AWD, such that they continue to manage blended margins. That's my gut, but I haven't really studied their financials.
AWD and the performance version will be available for order next week. Higher margin options. The short range battery perhaps in 2019. If the 200,000 car is delivered in Q3 (as expected) then the tax credit will be reduced starting with Q1 of 2019. That may push those waiting on the short battery to jump to the long battery (or an S or X) which would give Tesla a higher margin.
Investors should diversify across many asset-classes so that whatever happens, we will not have all our investments in underperforming asset classes and thereby fail to meet our goals-Taylor Larimore

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Sat May 12, 2018 7:32 pm

Get additional quotes.
The other quote from the electrician who wired my generator was for $3700!

However, I have been given ultimatum from "The Boss" and I can NOT buy not-new vehicle, price be damned!

Staying with new car, now I am hard pressed to come up something which would be more desirable than the M3. This should make the decision easier now.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by btenny » Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am

Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Sun May 13, 2018 11:15 am

It’s too early to conclude that something is “fishy” because we don’t know what went wrong. It is, however, Impressive that the driver didn’t die — 60mph onto a stopped truck creates a lot of force.

Autobreaking, etc. are driver assistance features, not panaceas. In this case the driver should have applied brakes or the emergency braking system should have applied brakes to lessen the speed of the impact.

We do know that accidents and malfunctions will happen, and drivers who over-estimate the capacities of safety technology will be hurt or killed. My Mercedes (2017 e-class) has at least the the same level of safety technology as Teslas, and those features are useful. They do not replace or reduce my responsibility to remain alert when driving.

Andy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by hicabob » Sun May 13, 2018 11:18 am

btenny wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/
The crash into the back of the firetruck is rather strange. Even when not in autopilot mode I assume that Tesla's have emergency automatic braking when the radar indicates an imminent crash? Perhaps the radar was kaput?

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by randomguy » Sun May 13, 2018 11:22 am

btenny wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/
How often do the same type of accidents happen in other cars with AEB? I imagine they happen and just don't make the news. There is a big difference between avoiding 95% if the accidents and 100%

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by randomguy » Sun May 13, 2018 11:28 am

hicabob wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 11:18 am
btenny wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/
The crash into the back of the firetruck is rather strange. Even when not in autopilot mode I assume that Tesla's have emergency automatic braking when the radar indicates an imminent crash? Perhaps the radar was kaput?
Works as designed🤔
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired. ... -radar/amp

These systems are not perfect and have limitations. They help in a lot of situations but don't let you be an idiot.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by hicabob » Sun May 13, 2018 12:39 pm

randomguy wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 11:28 am
hicabob wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 11:18 am
btenny wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/
The crash into the back of the firetruck is rather strange. Even when not in autopilot mode I assume that Tesla's have emergency automatic braking when the radar indicates an imminent crash? Perhaps the radar was kaput?
Works as designed🤔
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired. ... -radar/amp

These systems are not perfect and have limitations. They help in a lot of situations but don't let you be an idiot.

Good article, thanks.

from above article ... This part is key
"
The same is true for any car currently equipped with adaptive cruise control, or automated emergency braking. It sounds like a glaring flaw, the kind of horrible mistake engineers race to eliminate. Nope. These systems are designed to ignore static obstacles because otherwise, they couldn't work at all."

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by hicabob » Sun May 13, 2018 1:16 pm

yet some systems seem to work properly with stationary objects ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1mrHhF-kb0

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun May 13, 2018 1:55 pm

A Tesla Model S sedan equipped with a semi-autonomous Autopilot system plowed into a truck stopped at a Utah traffic light Friday night, though it remains unknown if the Autopilot was in use during the crash.

The Tesla’s female driver suffered a broken ankle and there was extensive damage to the car, according to police.
Obviously, Tesla sucks.
Fwiw, you’re not supposed to use Autopilot on streets governed by traffic lights. Obviously, Tesla sucks.
Having seen a photo of the car, I’d be delighted to have only gotten a broken ankle.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by btenny » Sun May 13, 2018 2:04 pm

Tesla does not suck. They are good cars with some good features. But IMO there seems to be an issue with how they are implementing auto stop features. A good auto stop features works in all road conditions including standard streets with lots of stops lights and obstacles. For sure Subaru and other vendors are not having trouble (or I have not seen any significant reports) with cars running into objects stopped in front of them. The Tesla cars seem to not brake as good as a distracted human. So not very well.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun May 13, 2018 2:36 pm

For sure Subaru and other vendors are not having trouble (or I have not seen any significant reports) with cars running into objects stopped in front of them
That’s a mighty big “or I have not seen...”

For whatever reason, politics, ad revenue, desire for the status quo, media don’t make as much fuss about other cars. How many people died due to faulty GM ignition switches before it became newsworthy? 1? 2? 50? 100?

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Sun May 13, 2018 3:33 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 2:36 pm
For whatever reason, politics, ad revenue, desire for the status quo, media don’t make as much fuss about other cars. How many people died due to faulty GM ignition switches before it became newsworthy? 1? 2? 50? 100?
Well of course the other way to look at it is that it is a Tesla safety feature which is failing and it happens fairly frequently given the amount of cars they have on the road. How many GM cars are there on the road compared to Tesla? The ratio must be like 100,000 or perhaps 1,000,000 or more to 1. GM probably wasn’t touting their ignition switches as a feature like Musk does the autonomous/safety stuff either. The guy is chirpy. Live by the chirp and, unfortunately, die by the chirp. :?
Last edited by matjen on Sun May 13, 2018 4:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by randomguy » Sun May 13, 2018 3:54 pm

hicabob wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:16 pm
yet some systems seem to work properly with stationary objects ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1mrHhF-kb0
And the Tesla might works there. Low speed (<~40mph) involves a system with different parameters. They tend to call these things like city safety. Throw in a concrete wall(different radar signature) and controlled test cases where any tech looks good.

The rest of the cars with semuautonmius driving don't seem to be having as many issues. If that is a tech, user, or reporting issue I don't know.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Sun May 13, 2018 5:19 pm

For me the value or benefit of the automatic breaking system is not to keep me from hitting a stationary fire truck or lane divider while I am reading the newspaper, but rather to alert me (and take proactive action) if the traffic in front of me suddenly and unexpectedly slows down (and perhaps comes to a stop). Obviously, I *should* be paying attention to what is going on in front of me, so hopefully I will never get to experience the auto breaking feature. I am certainly not driving around ignoring traffic around me because I have the feature. Someone braver than me should try if the Subaru EyeSight keeps you from plowing full speed into a stationary wall :)

Today I had the first opportunity to try out adaptive cruise control on my new LEAF. Traffic in front of me slowed down from 50 mph to 25 mph when entering a residential zone and the car adjusted without issues.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TimeRunner » Sun May 13, 2018 7:15 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Obviously, I *should* be paying attention to what is going on in front of me, so hopefully I will never get to experience the auto breaking feature.
Auto breaking, heh. I see what you did there. :wink:
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon May 14, 2018 9:12 am

TimeRunner wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 7:15 pm
TravelGeek wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 5:19 pm
Obviously, I *should* be paying attention to what is going on in front of me, so hopefully I will never get to experience the auto breaking feature.
Auto breaking, heh. I see what you did there. :wink:
So are you submitting that the Tesla running into a firetruck was the system software running into a command to "break" and the system found that the most efficient way to do so in the fastest reasonable way was to go to "ramming speed" into the firetruck? Sounds like a simple software update.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Cramerica » Mon May 14, 2018 12:12 pm

It is kind of nice to see a bunch of people ragging on the model 3. Hopefully that means more people will cancer or defer their order so I can get mine sooner :twisted:

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Mon May 14, 2018 4:21 pm

ad2007 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 7:39 am
Leif wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 11:13 am
At least for me the charging mostly occurs in my garage over night. Each morning I have a full battery.
Is that advisable? Topping off the charge daily? Thought that was a no no for batteries.

I'm really interested in getting an ev but can't seem to get past the "what if I run out of charge?" Waiting around 45 minutes to get charged up would be a deal breaker. Florida is hot and not very scenic.
Teslas have no qualms charging to 50-90% daily. The slider will ask you if you try to go over 90% to only do that when you will depart shortly after charging. If you leave say, within 2 hours of reaching 100%, no worries. My 2013 has 72k miles on it and charges to 262 miles at 100% when it got 265 miles at 100% when new.

I've also driven many times to Tampa, Orlando, Miami, and Key West. Each time has been consistent - a "short" stop of about 20 minutes for a potty break, followed by a "long" stop of about 45 minutes for a meal break. Alternate the two until you've felt you have done enough driving for the day. So I would, for instance, stop 45 minutes in Savannah for lunch, 20 minutes in Kingsland, GA for a break, and then 45 minutes in Port Orange before turning in for the night.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Mon May 14, 2018 4:35 pm

Leif wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 12:58 pm
wrongfunds wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 8:43 am
I am OP here and still agonizing over the decision.

I just got the quote to install home charger. It is over $2K!
Seems really high. I paid $400. However, my charger is just inside the garage from the meter, so installation was relatively simple. I'm using my Tesla provided mobile charger (called UMC). It is possible that if charger is a long distance from the meter, involving a lot or work routing 50 amp wiring, the price is justified. Get additional quotes.
I paid $450 for copper wiring (it was quoted $400 for aluminum), going up one floor and over roughly 30 feet from the meter in my basement to the back wall, far side of the garage. That included the cost for not only the new 240v breaker, but some half-heights of 120s to make room for the new 240v. But I am in a lower cost of living area.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Strummer » Mon May 14, 2018 4:39 pm

I wanted to add a couple things about charging.

First off, just to be clear, you don't have to use the Tesla superchargers to charge your car. We've now got over 1,000 miles on our Model 3 and have yet to visit one. We do most of our charging at home although I also frequent a couple free, public, Level 2 chargers. (There are a surprising number of these out there. Filter for free chargers using either the ChargePoint or PlugShare app.) Still, the vast majority of our KWH come from home.

The other thing I wanted to mention is that I just use a standard, 110 volt outlet to charge at home. It's not fast — it adds about 5 miles of range per hour — but unless you're driving, say, 70 miles per day, plugging in from 6 PM to 6 AM will give you enough to replenish the driving you did the day before. That's certainly something I would consider if an electrician told me it would cost $2,000 to install a faster home charger. Everyone's needs are slightly different, of course, and some utilities offer rebates/incentives for installation of home charging equipment, but you might not even need anything besides a standard electrical outlet in your garage.

Meanwhile, yes, we're still loving our Model 3. Congrats to the new EV owners out there, whatever the manufacturer.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue May 15, 2018 7:27 pm

Autocar just came out with a pretty even-handed video review of the Model 3.

General points:
Great electric car
Loves the screen
Does not drive as well as a BMW 3 series or MB C class
Worried about company viability

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oO3L0FHj5Us
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 pm

btenny wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/
She was not paying attention to the road. She was playing on her phone.

Seriously, though, EAP is not full self driving. You can’t turn it on and take a nap.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Wed May 16, 2018 4:21 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 pm
Seriously, though, EAP is not full self driving. You can’t turn it on and take a nap.
Which brings the question, what is proper use case for EAP ? Blaming the injured or dead drivers certainly isn't going to help sell it.
Applying the brakes would seem like a really basic expectation in case an obstacle is detected. Maybe a few electric shocks to wake the driver, too. Though that probably wouldn't work for me. I have set 6 Roombas as my alarms and still sleep through all of them cleaning the house.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Wed May 16, 2018 6:56 am

I have set 6 Roombas as my alarms and still sleep through all of them cleaning the house.
This is a great example. Do you place the blame squarely on Roombas when you oversleep? May be we should make the example even stronger. How about in addition to the Roombas, you also set up good old alarm clock. Isn't the alarm clock company liable when you don't wake up even though alarm was blaring at you? What if the alarm was muted previously and was still in mute position and it never went off?

At what stage the blame shifts from the gadgets to the individual or it never does in USA?

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Wed May 16, 2018 7:24 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 6:56 am
I have set 6 Roombas as my alarms and still sleep through all of them cleaning the house.
This is a great example. Do you place the blame squarely on Roombas when you oversleep? May be we should make the example even stronger. How about in addition to the Roombas, you also set up good old alarm clock. Isn't the alarm clock company liable when you don't wake up even though alarm was blaring at you? What if the alarm was muted previously and was still in mute position and it never went off?

At what stage the blame shifts from the gadgets to the individual or it never does in USA?
I have an alarm clock too. Several. The Roombas were add-ons.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed May 16, 2018 7:41 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 6:56 am
I have set 6 Roombas as my alarms and still sleep through all of them cleaning the house.
This is a great example. Do you place the blame squarely on Roombas when you oversleep? May be we should make the example even stronger. How about in addition to the Roombas, you also set up good old alarm clock. Isn't the alarm clock company liable when you don't wake up even though alarm was blaring at you? What if the alarm was muted previously and was still in mute position and it never went off?

At what stage the blame shifts from the gadgets to the individual or it never does in USA?
This was fun to read.

Personally, I think I'm a safer driver for Autopilot, and I only have the first (limited sensor/camera) version. It would not dawn on me to text, watch a DVD, take a nap, etc., while expecting AP to drive for me. Perhaps in the future that will be possible; it isn't now.

It is awesome for bumper to bumper traffic jams. It is great for some highways (e.g., between our old home in Northern New Jersey and Saratoga Springs, NY), scary for some highways (Merritt in CT), and somewhat helpful for some highways (95 in CT). Anyone using it on a road with traffic lights is, afaik, explicitly going against Tesla's instructions, and don't have the sense that nature gave a mule. I don't mean to be cold, but unfortunately they probably procreated before winning the Darwin Award.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by ad2007 » Wed May 16, 2018 8:13 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 pm
btenny wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Tesla has auto pilot and auto braking trouble IMO. See below. Another model S was involved in a bad car wreck in Utah and there is no indication that the brakes were ever applied. Something is certainly fishy.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 605429002/
She was not paying attention to the road. She was playing on her phone.

Seriously, though, EAP is not full self driving. You can’t turn it on and take a nap.
Not sure what the headline driver was thinking or doing when this tragedy occurred. But it appears people are very ill informed about Tesla's Autopilot. I've heard a lot of: the car can change lane for you, it will follow the road, it will auto brake - as in you can totally delegate these task to the computer, "self driving" is the way to go. Crazy talk. My parents almost bought the Model S because they thought it will allow them to punch in a destination and the car will take them there (English might have been a barrier in this instance).

But look at the name Tesla uses for this tech: AUTOPILOT. I know what I think when I hear auto (as in automatic). So now there's an enhanced auto pilot? :oops:

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Wed May 16, 2018 8:59 am

madbrain wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 4:21 am
FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 pm
Seriously, though, EAP is not full self driving. You can’t turn it on and take a nap.
Which brings the question, what is proper use case for EAP ? Blaming the injured or dead drivers certainly isn't going to help sell it.
The use case for this and related safety technologies are that they provide assistance to drivers that may lower the frequency and severity of collisions — nothing more and nothing less.

These technologies will help in specific situations, will not help in others, and will sometimes fail altogether. Even so, they add protection to support conscientious drivers.

Andy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Wed May 16, 2018 1:14 pm

madbrain wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 4:21 am
FoolStreet wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 7:47 pm
Seriously, though, EAP is not full self driving. You can’t turn it on and take a nap.
Which brings the question, what is proper use case for EAP ? Blaming the injured or dead drivers certainly isn't going to help sell it.
Applying the brakes would seem like a really basic expectation in case an obstacle is detected. Maybe a few electric shocks to wake the driver, too. Though that probably wouldn't work for me. I have set 6 Roombas as my alarms and still sleep through all of them cleaning the house.

This is a good question and worth a discussion. As long as we all agree that EAP is not full self driving. We have to get that, first. The driver is 100% responsible for paying attention at all times.

Having said that, From what I have read, there are several subsystems in a Tesla that work independently and together. I plan to read this in more detail before buying, and it is up to the drivers to research. What I describe below could be wrong

EAP will reduce speed by 25mph, not full brake. I think the idea is that the car wants the driver to explicitly decide on whether to brake or speed around a suspicious object. Imagine a truck barreling down behind you about to rear end you. Do you slam on the brakes? Or speed into the shoulder? Similar situations arise when you see an obstacle (flayed tire or box falling from a truck in front of you) or even a tumbleweed. Should you slam on the breaks and risk a pileup? Or nimbly dart around or over the object.

There are other subsystems that I will research.

Look, my comments raise more questions than answers. Which is fine. It means you should (a) always be 100% in control of the vehicle and (b) RTM!*



*RTM = Read the manual. [acronym modified by admin LadyGeek]

Restless
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Restless » Fri May 18, 2018 7:56 pm

In case this has not been mentioned, Edmunds (car research resource/entity) has a M3 undergoing long-term testing. Below is the link to their updates. It may be helpful in deciding how to proceed.

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2 ... road-test/

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Strummer » Sat May 19, 2018 12:54 pm

Restless wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 7:56 pm
In case this has not been mentioned, Edmunds (car research resource/entity) has a M3 undergoing long-term testing. Below is the link to their updates. It may be helpful in deciding how to proceed.

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2 ... road-test/
I've got a bit under 1,500 miles on my Model 3 and have had none of the problems Edmunds reports. Everyone who's been in it loves it.

I'm also perplexed by their report of 336 watt hours per mile. That's almost 50 percent higher than what I'm getting, and I'm driving at 70+ MPH on freeways and using AC and heat regularly. Short of driving hyper-aggressively or eating lunch in the car everyday with the AC set to 66, I have no idea how you could operate the car so inefficiently to use that much energy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Sun May 20, 2018 7:06 am

Leif wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 3:35 pm
AWD and the performance version will be available for order next week. Higher margin options.
Musk just tweeted out some basics. A well optioned version (without "Autopilot") will be...gulp... $78K!!!! He compares it to a BMW M3 and says 15% quicker (believable if for only a few runs to 60 mph or 100 mph which is low-brow stuff IMO) and with better handling (very, very questionable). Says it will beat anything in its class on the track. Again, in a 0-60 sprint probably but to suggest this car will be a better track car than a M3 seems outlandish. I'm of two minds. 1) this stuff is almost pure bait and switch compared to what was generally promised and certainly trumpeted in the press when the Model 3 was announced and reservations put down, and 2) if there is a strong appetite from consumers to buy this then it is the right move to keep Tesla afloat.

I believe right now (aside from the incredible wait and other issues) the Model 3 ranges from 49K to 78K plus. Such a deal...at twice the price. Hmmm...
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Sun May 20, 2018 7:59 am

I have zero doubt that Tesla will produce a $35k Model 3, optioned with the details they provided (vs. others assumed would be there - like AutoPilot and “leather”, etc.). For the Model S and X, they also produced the highest profit versions first and eventually released the lower priced versions. So far, there is nothing new here, nothing to make me feel Tesla won’t be producing a $35k Model 3, and nothing that seems like a bait and switch. There is, however, plenty of Tesla not meeting people’s expectations. Everyone should decide for themselves if it meets their expectations and if they would take delivery or not.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Sun May 20, 2018 8:32 am

BrandonBogle wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 7:59 am
I have zero doubt that Tesla will produce a $35k Model 3, optioned with the details they provided (vs. others assumed would be there - like AutoPilot and “leather”, etc.). For the Model S and X, they also produced the highest profit versions first and eventually released the lower priced versions. So far, there is nothing new here, nothing to make me feel Tesla won’t be producing a $35k Model 3, and nothing that seems like a bait and switch. There is, however, plenty of Tesla not meeting people’s expectations. Everyone should decide for themselves if it meets their expectations and if they would take delivery or not.
I would say there is an important difference in that the prior cars weren't marketed around a significantly lower price point and marketed as a mass market vehicle. Fine print aside, there is a reason everyone talks about 35K. The low-priced role of the Model 3 is even part of the famous Tesla biz plan.

At 78K it seems what we really have is a refreshed Model S. I'm not knowledgeable enough about the pricing but is there a reason one would pay 78K for this over a Model S for a bit more? I quickly optioned an AWD 75D on their site and it came to $79.5 without the Autopilot stuff but with AWD and the Premium Package. A tad less range in a 75D but way better user interface it seems and much more functionality. Late June delivery allegedly as well so there is that enormous difference.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Sun May 20, 2018 10:23 am

matjen wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 8:32 am
At 78K it seems what we really have is a refreshed Model S. I'm not knowledgeable enough about the pricing but is there a reason one would pay 78K for this over a Model S for a bit more? I quickly optioned an AWD 75D on their site and it came to $79.5 without the Autopilot stuff but with AWD and the Premium Package. A tad less range in a 75D but way better user interface it seems and much more functionality. Late June delivery allegedly as well so there is that enormous difference.
A $78k Model 3 has the Performance package upgrades, an AWD 75D Model S does not. You are talking over $100k for a Model S with the Performance Package. If you want to compare a 75D Model S, a Model 3 + $5k AWD + options (like premium) would be a fairer example.

The Model S was touted as starting at $50k. When the 2012s came out, one couldn’t get that version. Eventually that version was available in late 2013 after the larger battery options, performance model, etc. had been sold for a bit.

Yes, Tesla does say this is more of a mass market vehicle and that a $35k Model 3 is coming, but I don’t see anything disingenuous about it.

I personally have a Model 3 reservation that has been ready to configure for months. I have yet to hit “go” because what I really want is a standard range model with the federal rebate. That seems less and less likely with each passing month, but it is what it is and once Tesla starts to run down the credit clock, I may just pay the extra $5k effective difference and get the larger battery. If/when I do so, I won’t be mad at Tesla because I wouldn’t get the federal credit had I waited.

That said, I do not have a car in near-immediate need of replacement. Our 2010 Lexus IS has no problems and can be on the road for years. So there is little anxiety for us to wait. People with more of a time crunch would experience more anxiety and thus, could be more upset than I am.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by LadyGeek » Sun May 20, 2018 11:06 am

I removed an off-topic post and a few replies. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable asking questions and where debates and discussions are conducted in civil tones.

At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
All opinions of the Tesla 3 are welcome, positive and negative.
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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Sun May 20, 2018 6:07 pm

Thank you for the pricing/options clarification. I think for the same money though you can get a current Model S that has near the range and near the speed. Worse on both counts for sure but not by a ton it seems to me. Then balance that against much more room, the ability to actually get it within a couple months, and a better user interface. I guess I am very skeptical about any major handling advantage and the usability of that advantage. I don't think it will be like a BMW M3 compared to a BMW 7 series. Meaning a car with a seriously different personality and capabilities. We will see.
BrandonBogle wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 10:23 am
I personally have a Model 3 reservation that has been ready to configure for months. I have yet to hit “go” because what I really want is a standard range model with the federal rebate. That seems less and less likely with each passing month, but it is what it is and once Tesla starts to run down the credit clock, I may just pay the extra $5k effective difference and get the larger battery. If/when I do so, I won’t be mad at Tesla because I wouldn’t get the federal credit had I waited.
See that kind of, sort of sounds like a bait and switch! :-)
Image

BAIT
In terms of price, well, of course, it will be $35,000."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-nngkM ... e&t=18m52s

SWITCH
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Sun May 20, 2018 7:56 pm

Well I just did a very non-Boglehead thing and ordered an AWD version when that configuration option opened up this evening. I have no doubts I can afford it, but still quite a splurge unlike one I’ve ever done. Did not get autopilot for the reasons I mentioned in the other thread.

Coincidentally, saw one in my neighborhood shortly after I placed the order and the neighbor was kind enough to let me take a short drive and WOW. I could tell in under 1 mile that it was more fun to drive than my previous BMW 3, which is what I’d hoped and expected. So, living a frugal lifestyle allowed me to splurge on this. I can live with that.
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Sun May 20, 2018 8:10 pm

Longdog wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 7:56 pm
Well I just did a very non-Boglehead thing and ordered an AWD version when that configuration option opened up this evening. I have no doubts I can afford it, but still quite a splurge unlike one I’ve ever done. Did not get autopilot for the reasons I mentioned in the other thread.

Coincidentally, saw one in my neighborhood shortly after I placed the order and the neighbor was kind enough to let me take a short drive and WOW. I could tell in under 1 mile that it was more fun to drive than my previous BMW 3, which is what I’d hoped and expected. So, living a frugal lifestyle allowed me to splurge on this. I can live with that.
I am very excited for you! Did you get the AWD add-on (for $5k) or did you splurge on the P version? If you are in the US I assume you will get it around 4th of July? (4-6 weeks?). [Edit: I am seeing reports of 12-16wks delivery estimate, which is fine. I assume this is to hit the 200k delivery on July 1 ..hopefully] Did you go with 18s or 19s?

The AWD plus EAP is the one my wife wants if we get one. I look forward to reports of it in the snow etc. Please post back as things move along!

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Mon May 21, 2018 4:15 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 8:10 pm
Longdog wrote:
Sun May 20, 2018 7:56 pm
Well I just did a very non-Boglehead thing and ordered an AWD version when that configuration option opened up this evening. I have no doubts I can afford it, but still quite a splurge unlike one I’ve ever done. Did not get autopilot for the reasons I mentioned in the other thread.

Coincidentally, saw one in my neighborhood shortly after I placed the order and the neighbor was kind enough to let me take a short drive and WOW. I could tell in under 1 mile that it was more fun to drive than my previous BMW 3, which is what I’d hoped and expected. So, living a frugal lifestyle allowed me to splurge on this. I can live with that.
I am very excited for you! Did you get the AWD add-on (for $5k) or did you splurge on the P version? If you are in the US I assume you will get it around 4th of July? (4-6 weeks?). [Edit: I am seeing reports of 12-16wks delivery estimate, which is fine. I assume this is to hit the 200k delivery on July 1 ..hopefully] Did you go with 18s or 19s?

The AWD plus EAP is the one my wife wants if we get one. I look forward to reports of it in the snow etc. Please post back as things move along!
I got the AWD add-on but not the P version. I am in the U.S. and the delivery estimate is 12-16 weeks. They don’t start manufacturing the AWD versions until July. I went with the 18 wheels, even though I liked the look of the 19 wheels for two reasons. Having had low profile wheels before (and the 18” wheels are sort of low profile as is), I know how easy and frustrating it is to scrape the wheels if you turn too sharply and brush up against a curb. Second, the car is already expensive enough, and somehow in my Boglehead mind that extra $1500 makes it downright unaffordable. 😉

I did adjust my Federal tax withholding to allow myself to get my $7500 tax credit spread out through the rest of this year, rather than at tax filing time. That actually is a Boglehead thing to do. 😉
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by VaR » Mon May 21, 2018 5:54 am

Have we analyzed the following in this thread? I couldn't find them in my casual reading of the past 18 pages over the last several months:
1. Is the gas savings on the Tesla website legit? https://www.tesla.com/where-you-park
For the average 15,000 miles a year, $0.12 kWh FPL electricity, and $2.90 a gallon, the calculator has me saving $1460 a year compared to my current 21 mpg car. This seems like a lot. I could even afford to put a nice home charger in.
2. What's the best way to incorporate this savings into the cost of buying a Model 3? I feel like multiplying by 10 and subtracting is a bit simplistic.
3. How much of the $1000-$1500 for an outdoor level 2 charger would be reusable if I switched to a different EV company? If I want an outdoor charger, is there a generic solution?

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon May 21, 2018 6:28 am

VaR wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 5:54 am
Have we analyzed the following in this thread? I couldn't find them in my casual reading of the past 18 pages over the last several months:
1. Is the gas savings on the Tesla website legit? https://www.tesla.com/where-you-park
For the average 15,000 miles a year, $0.12 kWh FPL electricity, and $2.90 a gallon, the calculator has me saving $1460 a year compared to my current 21 mpg car. This seems like a lot. I could even afford to put a nice home charger in.
The Tesla site has changed their gas savings page numerous times over the last year. It is pretty easy to "correct" their number. Last time I used it, the default had me saving $8 per 100 miles. Plugging in local, correct, exact numbers for me, I saved 80 cents per 100 miles. Perhaps if I was replacing an F-250 pickup, getting discount electricity and for the moment, paying Tesla's estimate for gas, which happens to be about right, I'd hit their number. My electricity is nearly twice their estimate (same as California, curiously) and my car gets 50% better fuel mileage than the 21 they estimate. I expect they picked the mileage from something like a BMW 7 or Audi A8.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Mon May 21, 2018 6:35 am

VaR wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 5:54 am
Have we analyzed the following in this thread? I couldn't find them in my casual reading of the past 18 pages over the last several months:
1. Is the gas savings on the Tesla website legit? https://www.tesla.com/where-you-park
For the average 15,000 miles a year, $0.12 kWh FPL electricity, and $2.90 a gallon, the calculator has me saving $1460 a year compared to my current 21 mpg car. This seems like a lot. I could even afford to put a nice home charger in.
2. What's the best way to incorporate this savings into the cost of buying a Model 3? I feel like multiplying by 10 and subtracting is a bit simplistic.
3. How much of the $1000-$1500 for an outdoor level 2 charger would be reusable if I switched to a different EV company? If I want an outdoor charger, is there a generic solution?
1) I think it is a legitimate comparison, if the alternative ICE vehicle that you'd otherwise purchase gets 21mpg, which is probably low but of course depends on the vehicle. If I compare it to the 35mpg that my current Honda Accord gets, I'm not saving money on fuel. But the Honda Accord was not meant to be anything other than a holdover car - had I not wanted to consider (and then order) the Tesla, I would have probably gotten an Audi A4 or BMW 3, which get high 20s mpg, so the gas savings would be lower, but the performance better on the Tesla. So, hard to say for sure. It's not an outrageous comparison, but depending on what you see as your alternatives, you have to weigh it accordingly.
2) The best way to incorporate the savings is to assume they are zero. Don't get the car if you believe it is to save money. It's not. It's an expensive car. There are decent, reliable, less expensive ICE cars out there that will save money.
3) If you install a standard NEMA 14-50, rather than the dedicated Tesla charging station, it should be completely reusable for another EV.
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Mon May 21, 2018 7:13 am

Congrats Longdog. Enjoy! Curious as to what the price delta is between your build and the equivalent Model S 75D? Tesla won't let us outsiders ;-) configure a Model 3 without first siging up which is rather annoying.

For those awaiting the 35K model here is the latest as of last night from Musk:
With production, 1st you need achieve target rate & then smooth out flow to achieve target cost. Shipping min cost Model 3 right away wd cause Tesla to lose money & die. Need 3 to 6 months after 5k/wk to ship $35k Tesla & live.
I would bet on 8 months at the short end before any are made. Any in any type of numbers? Who knows.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Mon May 21, 2018 10:36 am

For those waiting for the $35,000 standard battery M3 it is looking like 2019 as I predicted.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk ties base Model 3 availability to company profitability

In a discussion on Twitter over the newly-announced dual motor and performance Model 3 options, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated that the $35,000 base model of the Model 3 would not ship for “3 to 6 months” until after hitting their planned production goal of 5,000 cars per week, primarily to ensure that Tesla will be able to produce the car profitably.

Tesla plans to hit 5,000/week in July, which puts the base model’s earliest deliveries in the 4th quarter of this year, though possibly not until 2019.
https://electrek.co/2018/05/21/tesla-ce ... itability/

A few lucky people may get the $35k car with the full tax credit. However, I certainly would not count on that. I'm sure Tesla is hoping that people will see that and opt for the long battery to get the full tax credit.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Big Dog » Mon May 21, 2018 10:49 am

3. How much of the $1000-$1500 for an outdoor level 2 charger would be reusable if I switched to a different EV company? If I want an outdoor charger, is there a generic solution?
There are several manufacturers of L2 chargers that work with non-Tesla's. ClipperCreek and Bosch come to mind. You could install one of those other charges and which would work with a Tesla by using an adaptor.

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