To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:09 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:59 pm
How is the 200k'th delivery get counted? I just read the 3rd quarter update and they marked the 250,000th delivery.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-3Q.pdf
Its 200k in the US to trigger rebate phaseout. The 250k number is global sales AFAIK.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by neilpilot » Thu Nov 23, 2017 8:32 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:59 pm
How is the 200k'th delivery get counted? I just read the 3rd quarter update and they marked the 250,000th delivery.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-3Q.pdf
I haven't seen anything official regarding Tesla deliveries in the USA, which are the only ones that count toward the 200k start of rebate phaseout under the current program. Press estimates of Tesla domestic deliveries have been 140-150k as of last month. Could the 250k reported in the shareholder document include a large number of non-USA deliveries?

240U
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:37 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:51 pm
Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Nov 06, 2017 1:14 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VFEJyqGErag

Just one of many videos I've found for various non-Teslas charging at a supercharger (I assume an HPWC is a supercharger).
Well then, I guess I have a Supercharger at home :beer

High Power Wall Connector is adjustable for various power levels. Mine at home puts out 240V at 40A, not bad for a home charger, but not close to a Supercharger. Iirc, the HPWC can go to 100A, but I’d have to increase my service.
The real charger is in the car and you can still charge only to the limit of the installed charger. This is simply an EVSE - Electric Vehicle Service Equipment. It is s safe source for power, how much is determined by the car. If you aren't charging a Tesla you will be limited to about 6.6 kW. 7.2 with a Bolt. I think the BMW i3 uses 7.2 as well but I am not sure. I use a JuiceBox 10 kW EVSE at work but my Leaf charges at 6.6 kW just like my Leviton 6.6 kW EVSE at home provides. I have two EVSE units. One for work and one for home.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:32 am

240U wrote:
Fri Nov 24, 2017 9:37 am
If you aren't charging a Tesla you will be limited to about 6.6 kW. 7.2 with a Bolt. I think the BMW i3 uses 7.2 as well but I am not sure. I use a JuiceBox 10 kW EVSE at work but my Leaf charges at 6.6 kW just like my Leviton 6.6 kW EVSE at home provides. I have two EVSE units. One for work and one for home.
The Bolt actually charges at 32 amps which is 7.6 kW rate. Verified with my Juicebox EVSE and my Bolt. The docs from Chevrolet that say 7.2 are wrong. 7.2 kW would correspond to 30 amps. There is not a huge difference between the two, anyway.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Sat Dec 02, 2017 9:20 am

Good to know. I had read the 7.2 but this is the first I've heard of the 7.6kW.

oragne lovre
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by oragne lovre » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:10 pm

neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:28 pm
ClaycordJCA wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:26 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:12 pm
oragne lovre wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:00 pm
Tesla starts asking customers, who are not employees of Tesla or Tesla-related companies, to design their model 3s today. Tesla estimates a 4-week waiting period before delivery. It's still an unknown issue if the federal $7500 credit will disappear by the end of 2017.
Can I assume you mean 2018? There's no way the rebate will disappear this year. Also, when Tesla does reach 200k cars sold, the rebate does not disappear, it's phased out. Google for the details.

BTW if your Federal tax bill is less than $7500, you only get a rebate up to your tax. While this isn't a problem for most bogelheads, there are some who post here that boast that they are in the 0% bracket.
I believe oragne lovre is pointing out that the federal tax credit could be eliminated if any tax reform legislation is passed. Doing so is one of the current proposals. That legislation could have a January 1, 2018 effective date.
But that's not "by the end of 2017", ...and since discussion of proposed legislation is against our rules, I never would have guessed... :shock:
Both the House and Senate just passed the repeal of IRS Section 30D (EV tax credit.) Once the President signs the repeal into law, $7500 credit will be gone on 01/01/2018.
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Millennial » Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:40 pm

oragne lovre wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:10 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:28 pm
ClaycordJCA wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:26 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:12 pm
oragne lovre wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:00 pm
Tesla starts asking customers, who are not employees of Tesla or Tesla-related companies, to design their model 3s today. Tesla estimates a 4-week waiting period before delivery. It's still an unknown issue if the federal $7500 credit will disappear by the end of 2017.
Can I assume you mean 2018? There's no way the rebate will disappear this year. Also, when Tesla does reach 200k cars sold, the rebate does not disappear, it's phased out. Google for the details.

BTW if your Federal tax bill is less than $7500, you only get a rebate up to your tax. While this isn't a problem for most bogelheads, there are some who post here that boast that they are in the 0% bracket.
I believe oragne lovre is pointing out that the federal tax credit could be eliminated if any tax reform legislation is passed. Doing so is one of the current proposals. That legislation could have a January 1, 2018 effective date.
But that's not "by the end of 2017", ...and since discussion of proposed legislation is against our rules, I never would have guessed... :shock:
Both the House and Senate just passed the repeal of IRS Section 30D (EV tax credit.) Once the President signs the repeal into law, $7500 credit will be gone on 01/01/2018.
Not a comment on pending legislation, but on legislative process: the house and Senate bills were not the same. They must go to a conference to reconcile differences, and both chambers must vote to approve the resulting identical bill prior to it getting sent to the president. Alternatively, the house could vote on the Senate Bill as is, pass it, and that could go to the president for signature, but that does not appear to be the current plan.

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:55 pm

oragne lovre wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:10 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:28 pm
ClaycordJCA wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:26 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:12 pm
oragne lovre wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:00 pm
Tesla starts asking customers, who are not employees of Tesla or Tesla-related companies, to design their model 3s today. Tesla estimates a 4-week waiting period before delivery. It's still an unknown issue if the federal $7500 credit will disappear by the end of 2017.
Can I assume you mean 2018? There's no way the rebate will disappear this year. Also, when Tesla does reach 200k cars sold, the rebate does not disappear, it's phased out. Google for the details.

BTW if your Federal tax bill is less than $7500, you only get a rebate up to your tax. While this isn't a problem for most bogelheads, there are some who post here that boast that they are in the 0% bracket.
I believe oragne lovre is pointing out that the federal tax credit could be eliminated if any tax reform legislation is passed. Doing so is one of the current proposals. That legislation could have a January 1, 2018 effective date.
But that's not "by the end of 2017", ...and since discussion of proposed legislation is against our rules, I never would have guessed... :shock:
Both the House and Senate just passed the repeal of IRS Section 30D (EV tax credit.) Once the President signs the repeal into law, $7500 credit will be gone on 01/01/2018.
Source please. This link suggests that EV credit repeal was NOT in the Senate version (as of Thursday PM)....and will go to reconciliation.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... t-in-place

Updated:

https://electrek.co/2017/12/02/electric ... nate-bill/

There was an amendment to the Senate bill, but it was not in the 'as passed' version.

oragne lovre
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by oragne lovre » Sat Dec 02, 2017 8:18 pm

just frank wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 5:55 pm
oragne lovre wrote:
Sat Dec 02, 2017 2:10 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:28 pm
ClaycordJCA wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:26 pm
neilpilot wrote:
Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:12 pm


Can I assume you mean 2018? There's no way the rebate will disappear this year. Also, when Tesla does reach 200k cars sold, the rebate does not disappear, it's phased out. Google for the details.

BTW if your Federal tax bill is less than $7500, you only get a rebate up to your tax. While this isn't a problem for most bogelheads, there are some who post here that boast that they are in the 0% bracket.
I believe oragne lovre is pointing out that the federal tax credit could be eliminated if any tax reform legislation is passed. Doing so is one of the current proposals. That legislation could have a January 1, 2018 effective date.
But that's not "by the end of 2017", ...and since discussion of proposed legislation is against our rules, I never would have guessed... :shock:
Both the House and Senate just passed the repeal of IRS Section 30D (EV tax credit.) Once the President signs the repeal into law, $7500 credit will be gone on 01/01/2018.
Source please. This link suggests that EV credit repeal was NOT in the Senate version (as of Thursday PM)....and will go to reconciliation.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... t-in-place

Updated:

https://electrek.co/2017/12/02/electric ... nate-bill/

There was an amendment to the Senate bill, but it was not in the 'as passed' version.
https://www.congress.gov/amendment/115t ... /1746/text

Yes, reconciliation is the next step.
My apology for bad choice of words.
The finest, albeit the most difficult, of all human achievements is being reasonable.

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4nursebee
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 4nursebee » Tue Dec 12, 2017 3:51 pm

Saw my first two model 3's in Raleigh NC today!
4nursebee

240U
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:27 pm

Model 3's are all over the place here in South SF Bay Area. I have seen a dozen or more. I guess technically that isn't all over the place but it sure looks nice to see it in the wild.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Thesaints » Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:56 pm

I think we can safely assume that there is the concrete possibility of that credit disappearing with the new year, without violating forum rules, nor delving into the intricacies of the legislative process.

Steven in NC
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Steven in NC » Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:48 pm

I wouldn't take any Boglehead advice (or anyone else for that matter) on a luxury purchase that focuses on money. Why? Simple. BH's are frugal and reserved for the most part and will steer you into a decision you may regret. If you were asking technical questions, options, then input can be valuable. Let it be your choice. You can afford it so get it if you want it. Sometimes you got to sit in the smoking section - even if you don't smoke. Way funner in the smoking section.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Thesaints » Tue Dec 12, 2017 6:11 pm

240U wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 4:27 pm
Model 3's are all over the place here in South SF Bay Area. I have seen a dozen or more. I guess technically that isn't all over the place but it sure looks nice to see it in the wild.
Yep. All 300 of them!

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Tue Dec 12, 2017 7:44 pm

Yeah, but I am in Tesla country. Plus they are up to about 2700 built and stored all over the place. It will be interesting when they start delivering them.

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munemaker
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by munemaker » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:37 am

Steven in NC wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:48 pm
BH's are frugal and reserved for the most part and will steer you into a decision you may regret.
Why visit the forums then?

researcher
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by researcher » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:42 am

munemaker wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:37 am
Steven in NC wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:48 pm
BH's are frugal and reserved for the most part and will steer you into a decision you may regret.
Why visit the forums then?
Had you bothered to read his entire post, you would have seen the answer...
If you were asking technical questions, options, then input can be valuable.

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HomerJ
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:10 am

Steven in NC wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:48 pm
BH's are frugal and reserved for the most part and will steer you into a decision you may regret.
This is true. It's also true that we may steer you into a decision that will save you FROM regret.

(Plus, if you find yourself regretting being frugal, it's much easier to reverse than if you find yourself regretting spending too much money on something).

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Nate79 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:45 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:10 am
Steven in NC wrote:
Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:48 pm
BH's are frugal and reserved for the most part and will steer you into a decision you may regret.
This is true. It's also true that we may steer you into a decision that will save you FROM regret.

(Plus, if you find yourself regretting being frugal, it's much easier to reverse than if you find yourself regretting spending too much money on something).
No, no no. I suggest they post on a Tesla fanboy forum to get some unbiased opinions.... :mrgreen:

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:42 pm

Don't worry, Tesla fanboys are here as well. :D

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:39 pm

240U wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:42 pm
Don't worry, Tesla fanboys are here as well. :D
You betcha :D

One of the reasons I’m a BH is not to win a “more frugal than thou” contest, but to have the means to buy things that matter to me.

FoolStreet
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:37 pm

Wifey just told me she put down a reservation yesterday for me/us. I better subscribe to this thread and start researching. I figure I have at least another 12 months.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:41 pm

just frank wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:58 pm
I recently did a deep dive in EV depreciation.

On a 3-year basis...

Model S retains about 0.63 residual value relative to purchase price
LEAF retains about 0.18 residual value relative to MSRP, 0.30 relative to discounted/rebated price.

Projected Bolt EV depreciation (by independent analysts) is 0.40 relative to MSRP.

Computing lease versus buy on the Bolt, they were offering discounts and a generous 0.60 residual on the lease. This pencils out to be even with buying and pocketing the Fed rebate if the actual 3-year resale is 0.40 of MSRP. IOW, if GM is looking to fair price the lease, then they also think real 3 year resale is 0.40 of MSRP, about $15k.

The net says ICE cars typically have an average 54% resale value relative to MSRP at three years (not much less than a Tesla).

Incidentally, dealer discounts and the fed rebate on the Bolt reduce the $40k MSRP by 25%. So the (projected) residual relative to the real price is 0.4/(1-0.25) = 0.53...very close to that of a typical ICE car.
so i should wait 3 years and buy an off lease Bolt for $15k? that might be a good plan.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:12 pm

Depends on what kind of car that you want.They really aren't comparable vehicles. The Model 3 is a sedan that is just a little smaller than the Model S. Seats 5 and has very spirited performance.

The Bolt is a a Honda FIT EV with longer range and better overall performance but inferior to the Model 3.

If you want a Honda FIT EV with a useful range then I would wait. It should be a good deal. If you wand a sedan that is more comfortable and larger with better performance and safety rating then make a reservation.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by letsgobobby » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:16 pm

240U wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:12 pm
Depends on what kind of car that you want.They really aren't comparable vehicles. The Model 3 is a sedan that is just a little smaller than the Model S. Seats 5 and has very spirited performance.

The Bolt is a a Honda FIT EV with longer range and better overall performance but inferior to the Model 3.

If you want a Honda FIT EV with a useful range then I would wait. It should be a good deal. If you wand a sedan that is more comfortable and larger with better performance and safety rating then make a reservation.
i’m out for the “3” - already surrendered my reservation some time ago.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Wed Dec 27, 2017 9:27 pm

Well then, you will have at least three options in three years.
1. Bolt lease return
2. Leaf II lease return
3. lease return with i3 updated.

The Bolt option has been worked on. The Leaf II is just coming out but will start leasing in a month or so. I have sat in it and we will be taking a test drive next month. Nice car, slightly larger than the Bolt but less overall performance. However, the current range is going to be about 150 miles with a 225 to 250 mile range version coming out end of 2018. Good possibility.

The i3 is being updated with a larger battery giving a range of about 150 miles. I have driven one on a short test drive(short range version). Not my cup of tea and much more expensive than the other options.

Other than these you will have to depend on what else comes out in the next year.

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Wed Dec 27, 2017 10:42 pm

I assure you all that the cabin/interior of the Bolt is much larger and taller than a Honda Fit OR the LEAF (I or II) OR the 3.

The lack of a front makes it look otherwise in photos. Its like a small crossover on the inside...but the length and width of a compact.

Think TARDIS.

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kenyan
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by kenyan » Wed Dec 27, 2017 11:22 pm

Struggling with this decision myself (at least, in theory, since it will still be some time before I get the option). I've been starting to think more strongly about early retirement - possibly in my 40s - and actually following through on the Model 3 certainly wouldn't be conducive to that goal. I am pretty excited about the prospect of this car, but $39k after tax credits ($10k Fed + State) is a lot of money for a car. Could wait for the $35k car, which would likely mean $35k - $6250 in tax credits, given the timing, but the extra power/range/features of the $49k car are appealing to me. We shall see - at least a couple more months to make up my mind, and probably more than that.
Retirement investing is a marathon.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:04 am

Have a 2015 Leaf and a Honda FIT EV. The Leaf is a lot larger than the FIT. I have spent a fair amount of time in the Bolt as a close friend purchased one when they first came out. I think it was the 3rd one sold in the SF Bay Area. The Bolt is larger than the FIT for sure. I am not certain about being larger than the Leaf. Shaped differently for sure.

As for the "3", I think you are referring to the i3 from BMW. That is definitely a different animal. It really doesn't fit any normal category except maybe a small sedan? I don't care for it all that much for several reasons.

I like the Bolt it it isn't quite large enough as my dog's crates don't fit in it. Same problem with the FIT. The Leaf isn't any better. None of the smaller range BEVs are large enough for us at this time. The Bolt is getting close but we would prefer something the size of the Rogue or Murano. But I think I will have to wait for the Model Y and hope we can afford one.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:08 am

240U wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:04 am
Have a 2015 Leaf and a Honda FIT EV. The Leaf is a lot larger than the FIT. I have spent a fair amount of time in the Bolt as a close friend purchased one when they first came out. I think it was the 3rd one sold in the SF Bay Area. The Bolt is larger than the FIT for sure. I am not certain about being larger than the Leaf. Shaped differently for sure.
I've owned a LEAF Gen 1 and now a Bolt. The Bolt has a couple inches more front leg and headroom, the back seats have as much headroom and legroom as the front (unlike the LEAFs or Tesla model 3).

My very tall friends are cramped in the LEAF front seats and the rear are a no go, but comfy front and back in the Bolt. I am 6'1" and can actually straighten my knees completely in the Bolt front seats, which I could not do in a LEAF or Camry.

The seating height in the Bolt is also several inches taller, about halfway between the sedan height of the LEAF or M3 and an SUV. I can see over small cars in front of me.

The LEAF hatch area is longer front to back (the LEAF has a longer wheelbase), but is triangular and shorter (the Bolt's hatch is more vertical and its taller)....so the LEAF has slightly greater cargo volume with the rear seats upright, but about the same with the rear seats folded (and both have more cargo than the M3)

Despite being much taller and having more seating space than the LEAF I, the Bolt is about 15% more efficient (mi/kWh) in warm weather, and more like 25+% in cold weather. A very well engineered driving machine.

I haven't been in the Model 3 but I expect that the Bolt will be a more capable and comfortable vehicle than the base M3, in terms of range and cabin space.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:13 am

I can agree with every comparison between the Leaf and the Bolt. I like the Bolt a lot. My problem with it is I need to travel cross country fairly often. Just not possible in anything other then a Tesla. Even if you could find a CCS charger everywhere between California and the Midwest. The charge rate just doesn’t support travel. If my travel was N. California to S. California I could easily live with it. But I drive between San Jose and Dallas along 10 so the Bolt just wouldn’t do. But I really like it.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:24 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:37 pm
Wifey just told me she put down a reservation yesterday for me/us. I better subscribe to this thread and start researching. I figure I have at least another 12 months.
Congratulations FoolStreet!

You've probably already been there, but https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/ sometimes is interesting. Of course, it's a wide open group, so caveats apply.

I also urge caution researching Tesla on BH. There are some posters who like nothing more than to grind their axes when an existing or potential Tesla owner discusses anything in good faith. That's the main reason that I frequently swear off Tesla threads for weeks at a time. There are many haters here; I understand, I'm a VW/Audi hater, but I usually stuff a sock in it.

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:33 pm

240U wrote:
Thu Dec 28, 2017 11:13 am
I can agree with every comparison between the Leaf and the Bolt. I like the Bolt a lot. My problem with it is I need to travel cross country fairly often. Just not possible in anything other then a Tesla. Even if you could find a CCS charger everywhere between California and the Midwest. The charge rate just doesn’t support travel. If my travel was N. California to S. California I could easily live with it. But I drive between San Jose and Dallas along 10 so the Bolt just wouldn’t do. But I really like it.
I don't disagree with this assessment. We have more CCS around here...but any trip much over 300 miles each way would become a chore.

I have heard various assessments of the charging speed of the M3 however, and the base model is expected to not be much faster charging than the Bolt (80 kW limit), and more CCS might be available by the time the base M3 comes out.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by ncbill » Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:32 am

letsgobobby wrote:
Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:41 pm
just frank wrote:
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:58 pm
I recently did a deep dive in EV depreciation.

On a 3-year basis...

Model S retains about 0.63 residual value relative to purchase price
LEAF retains about 0.18 residual value relative to MSRP, 0.30 relative to discounted/rebated price.

Projected Bolt EV depreciation (by independent analysts) is 0.40 relative to MSRP.

Computing lease versus buy on the Bolt, they were offering discounts and a generous 0.60 residual on the lease. This pencils out to be even with buying and pocketing the Fed rebate if the actual 3-year resale is 0.40 of MSRP. IOW, if GM is looking to fair price the lease, then they also think real 3 year resale is 0.40 of MSRP, about $15k.

The net says ICE cars typically have an average 54% resale value relative to MSRP at three years (not much less than a Tesla).

Incidentally, dealer discounts and the fed rebate on the Bolt reduce the $40k MSRP by 25%. So the (projected) residual relative to the real price is 0.4/(1-0.25) = 0.53...very close to that of a typical ICE car.
so i should wait 3 years and buy an off lease Bolt for $15k? that might be a good plan.
Why wait?

Bolt leases well now, especially for those in California (applying the state EV credit results in $0 CCR)

Cramerica
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Cramerica » Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:35 pm

I have a reservation too and wonder if it is really wise financially but...

If you get the 35k version, looks like you will probably get the full 7500 credit and 2500 if in Cali. 25k seems pretty reasonable to me.

The 49k version is a harder sell even with the 10k discount, but if I keep it for the life of the car or at least battery, 39k over 7 years is about 5500 a year. Not that bad. If you factor in the advantage of financing the car at a low rate, it's even less.

Still hesitant for the 49k myself, but the 35k seems fine :mrgreen:

wrongfunds
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:27 am

what is the skinny on the tax credit? did it survive under the new tax plan?

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:51 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:27 am
what is the skinny on the tax credit? did it survive under the new tax plan?
It survived.

travellight
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by travellight » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:34 pm

I just got the email to configure my model 3. I haven't decided yet whether to do it. I want the big battery but not all the premium upgrades but I am afraid to lose the federal tax credit if I wait for round 2.

wrongfunds
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm

Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:38 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
Same here. I still have my pre-order, but strongly leaning towards leasing a 2018 LEAF. That one I have not only seen, but even test-driven for about an hour. Nissan - not a dealer - brought it to my front door to try it out about a month ago.

I have never leased a vehicle before, but with the fast developments in the EV market it seems to be the best option. And Nissan leases seem to capture the EV credit for the lessee.

madbrain
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:55 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:38 pm
wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
Same here. I still have my pre-order, but strongly leaning towards leasing a 2018 LEAF. That one I have not only seen, but even test-driven for about an hour. Nissan - not a dealer - brought it to my front door to try it out about a month ago.

I have never leased a vehicle before, but with the fast developments in the EV market it seems to be the best option. And Nissan leases seem to capture the EV credit for the lessee.
Would strongly advise against the Leaf due to no battery cooling and massive degradation that has been seen, even if you lease. You will not be happy. I could not stand my 2012 Leaf and returned it at 32 months out of 39 lease even though I had to still pay the last 7 months. Got a Volt instead.

My husband drives a Bolt now which replaced his Prius. Both our Chevy's are owned, not leased. Bolt is available everywhere now at significant discounts to MSRP if you purchase. Chevy does not pass the full tax credit on a lease, though.

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:14 pm

madbrain wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:55 pm
My husband drives a Bolt now which replaced his Prius. Both our Chevy's are owned, not leased. Bolt is available everywhere now at significant discounts to MSRP if you purchase. Chevy does not pass the full tax credit on a lease, though.
(bolding added)

We probably would already have a Bolt if it actually was available from any dealer nearby. The nearest is 140 miles away. The local Chevy dealers have zero interest in selling or servicing the vehicle. I have asked multiple times. Truck or Camarro is what they seem to thrive on. The local Nissan dealer, on the other hand, is actively promoting EVs.

I understand the battery concern. I live in the PNW; not a super hot climate. The LEAF would replace our 2010 Prius. Our EV driving will be local - for longer road trips we will use our Forester. Even if there were to be significant battery degradation, 150 miles - degradation is plenty of range for our needs. And a lease means it's ultimately Nissan's problem in the end.

(I also see you had a 2012 LEAF; from my reading it seems later model years had less battery degradation problems due to chemistry changes)
Last edited by TravelGeek on Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

researcher
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by researcher » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:17 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
In a press release issued Wednesday, the electric carmaker said it churned out just 2,425 Model 3 sedans over the last three months.

Tesla (TSLA) said last year that it hoped to be making 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of 2017 before pushing that target back to March 2018. Now, it's not expecting to hit that mark before June this year.


http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/03/technol ... index.html

madbrain
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:49 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:14 pm
We probably would already have a Bolt if it actually was available from any dealer nearby. The nearest is 140 miles away. The local Chevy dealers have zero interest in selling or servicing the vehicle. I have asked multiple times. Truck or Camarro is what they seem to thrive on. The local Nissan dealer, on the other hand, is actively promoting EVs.
That is really too bad.
I understand the battery concern. I live in the PNW; not a super hot climate. The LEAF would replace our 2010 Prius. Our EV driving will be local - for longer road trips we will use our Forester. Even if there were to be significant battery degradation, 150 miles - degradation is plenty of range for our needs. And a lease means it's ultimately Nissan's problem in the end.

(I also see you had a 2012 LEAF; from my reading it seems later model years had less battery degradation problems due to chemistry changes)
You have do understand range on EV is often not the EPA estimate. The 150 miles advertised is under nearly ideal conditions, with a weighted average of city/freeway driving, speeds usually well below the speed limit (I think no more than 55 in the EPA test), no heater, no AC, no hills, no winds.
If any one of these factors are not true, range will drop quite a bit, even with a brand new battery. Do not plan on having more than about 70% of the range if driving conditions are not ideal. And that's with a brand new battery.

For my driving conditions in winter time, even in mild bay area climate, my Leaf had a 65 miles range in the winter when new, and closer to 55 miles at 2.5 years, vs the 73 miles EPA range. And actually that range was with 80% charge, not 100%. The 2013 model removed the 80% charging option and the EPA range was changed to 84 miles even though there were practically no efficiency and battery improvements in the 2013 over the 2012.
55 miles is significantly less than 84, about 2/3rd of EPA range.

Our Bolt gets 240 miles range in the summer time. In winter time it's now at closer to 180 miles. That's 75% of EPA range. My husband drives it, though, and has a little bit of a lead foot than I do.

Last week end I drove to Santa Cruz in my Volt. I got a whole 24 miles with a full battery before it switched to gas, using about 10 kWh (the 2015 Volt reserves about 6 kWh out of the 16 and release it when battery degradation) . This was on sunny day but with steep hills. No high speed in the hills, but I did speed on flat freeways prior to that. Heater was not on, either. EPA range for the 2015 Volt is 38 miles. So that's 24 / 38 = 63% of EPA range.

Basically, take the EPA range with a grain of salt. If you cut it by a third to account for winter time and other adverse factors, you'll be much happier. 100 miles of actual range is not the same as 150. For me it would be the difference between being able to make a round trip to San Francisco (110 miles, mostly freeway, with hills) and not being able to. Bolt can do it. I'm not sure the 2018 Leaf could.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by travellight » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:42 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
I haven't even seen one; they are not in the showrooms till spring 2018.

wrongfunds
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:07 pm

travellight wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:42 pm
wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
I haven't even seen one; they are not in the showrooms till spring 2018.
And Tesla is asking you to configure the vehicle and purchase it now?

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:24 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:14 pm
madbrain wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:55 pm
My husband drives a Bolt now which replaced his Prius. Both our Chevy's are owned, not leased. Bolt is available everywhere now at significant discounts to MSRP if you purchase. Chevy does not pass the full tax credit on a lease, though.
(bolding added)

We probably would already have a Bolt if it actually was available from any dealer nearby. The nearest is 140 miles away. The local Chevy dealers have zero interest in selling or servicing the vehicle. I have asked multiple times. Truck or Camarro is what they seem to thrive on. The local Nissan dealer, on the other hand, is actively promoting EVs.

I understand the battery concern. I live in the PNW; not a super hot climate. The LEAF would replace our 2010 Prius. Our EV driving will be local - for longer road trips we will use our Forester. Even if there were to be significant battery degradation, 150 miles - degradation is plenty of range for our needs. And a lease means it's ultimately Nissan's problem in the end.

(I also see you had a 2012 LEAF; from my reading it seems later model years had less battery degradation problems due to chemistry changes)
Like madbrain I am previous LEAF, and now a Bolt owner. madbrain actually convinced me to check it out. :wink:

We loved the 2013 LEAF. We love the Bolt. After years with a car we loved that we couldn't use for some of our use cases, we have a car that we can use more.

We have a modest daily commute and a monthly 210 mile round trip. The 2013 LEAF was great for the first, and terrible for the second. The Bolt can do both. YMMV.

Enjoy whatever you get. And the one after that. :beer

travellight
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by travellight » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:54 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:07 pm
travellight wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:42 pm
wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
I haven't even seen one; they are not in the showrooms till spring 2018.
And Tesla is asking you to configure the vehicle and purchase it now?
Yes, I need to configure and pay for it at the premium price, 49k, now or defer to the basic car but i will likely lose my federal tax credit.

240U
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 240U » Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:58 am

Why would you lose your tax credit? Delay until end of summer and then decide. Full credit will likely last through September. 1/2 credit through the end of the year.

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:15 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:07 pm
travellight wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:42 pm
wrongfunds wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:32 pm
Have you had a chance to test drive one yet? I have yet to see a live one in around Boston area. Unless I get to test drive it at the store, I am not taking delivery sight unseen.
I haven't even seen one; they are not in the showrooms till spring 2018.
And Tesla is asking you to configure the vehicle and purchase it now?
Tesla is making configuration/purchase available to those who want to. You don’t lose the option by waiting.

I put down a larger deposit ($5k) 2.5 years before my Model X was available. I had not ridden in a Tesla before that, even though I could have test driven a Model S (test drives are over-rated, I can read and understand). Literally the first electric car I rode in was my own. I still love it, after almost 2 years of owning it. It improves all the time, via software updates done overnight while my car sits in my driveway. And, since I have an early VIN, Tesla is very generous about updating hardware, gratis, when they improve the hardware. Without my asking, they’ve upgraded my door latches and my Brembo brakes. They’re not a company that would allow customers to die because they didn’t want to replace a dollars worth of parts in the ignition, and then try to hide behind bankruptcy to avoid the consequences.

If it were me, I’d configure and fasten my seatbelt. That’s not to say that it’s a good choice for everyone; YMMV.

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