To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:13 pm

harikaried wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:18 pm
I suppose one could say it's topical, but is it useful? Probably not. I doubt people writing responses or articles know what's actually going on in the whole manufacturing process, so it's pure speculation if a change is safe or not. Tesla doing things differently from other manufacturers is not news.
Agree, it is speculation. The problem I have is that the comment's speculation is way more convincing than yours. You appear to have no knowledge about it whatsoever (me too :mrgreen: ) and just think that Tesla has some great capabilities in the manufacturing process that others don't after decades of experience. Is that possible? Sure. Is it probable? Heck no. Especially given the incentives when this went down. But it makes little sense and the logic of stopping the test but keeping the track makes no sense. It doesn't save time to do those tests on a track. It takes longer.

So let's take another angle.
1) I grant everything you say as true
2) How many cars did Tesla build last week. Approximately 7000
3) You tell me how they do this type of testing on their 1 mile track with a short straightaway (with a raised bridge in the middle) and do it more efficiently than just the other test. Makes no sense. Works out to 85 seconds a car from what i have read. Others say 40 cars an hour. Whatever it is, think about that. Logistically impossible even if every car passed every test. There is even a drone flyover of the factory on 6/29 for like 7 minutes and not a single car was on that track. They were in full crank out the jams mode. So how is that possible?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ2oXD9 ... e=youtu.be

Time will tell.
Last edited by matjen on Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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HopeToGolf
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HopeToGolf » Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:42 pm

autolycus wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:23 pm
......
What are people using as the key decision points for LR vs. SR? How many longer trips/year makes it worthwhile if the daily driving is easily handled with SR? My specifics are below.
......
Some say buy as much range as you can afford.

I decided to buy the LR despite my short daily commute. My thinking is whenever I take a longer trip, I don’t want to think about charging and where I’m going to do it. I want to be able to go to work, then take a 130 mile round trip and get a call from the wife to pick up something that is a 10 mile diversion all before I start thing about “how many miles do I have left.” I also don’t want to think about cold weather, efficiency, and spirited driving. We just got back from a ~540 mile round trip. Having the LR was helpful because our return trip plan to charge while eating breakfast was thwarted due to a supercharger being located in the parking garage in a major city (i.e. $12-$25 to use it). We still had errands to run so we did that and hopped on the road and used a supercharger on the way home. With the SR we would have had to use that parking garage supercharger or find a different charger in the city somewhere.

Anyway, for our use case the LR offers the “I don’t really have to think about charging any differently than I think about filling a car with gas” option. Yes, I paid a premium for this and it is so worth it.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:30 pm

matjen wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:13 pm
There is even a drone flyover of the factory on 6/29 for like 7 minutes and not a single car was on that track. They were in full crank out the jams mode. So how is that possible?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ2oXD9 ... e=youtu.be

Time will tell.
There's a car exiting the test track 1+ minutes into the video... :beer

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by harikaried » Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:49 pm

matjen wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:13 pm
But it makes little sense and the logic of stopping the test but keeping the track makes no sense. It doesn't save time to do those tests on a track. It takes longer.
It makes total sense if a longer more comprehensive test that provides equivalent or better coverage than an individual test while also testing additional items makes the individual test redundant. Removing the longer track test would reduce the overall testing coverage while removing the shorter test does not. So clearly, Tesla is not just removing tests that take a long time but also evaluating their value.

Just because something has always been done one way doesn't mean it's the only way to do it. Context matters, and generally those who are able to notice the difference and are able to adapt can take the advantage. Too often, things just keep being done the way they have been even when it's clear there's better ways.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:04 pm

OK, possible I suppose. Certainly can't rule it out. Doesn't explain an empty track and the general logisitics issue. That tiny track would have to be filled with cars 24/7. It ain't.

I'm gonna give roflwaffle the 1 as a courtesy but only as a courtesy for actually watching the video. I hope it is a forum member's car that "may" have been near the track. :beer
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ebotrd
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by ebotrd » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:53 pm

In case anyone wants to comment on my post it’s at viewtopic.php?f=11&t=253215
Model 3 also on my short list but I’ll probably just sit tight or possibly get a Gen 2 Volt...difficult decision for me.
M3 reservation holders could probably sell them for a few $100...may not work but apparently some have done successfully - just check ebay. If it fails give buyer their money back.
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harikaried
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by harikaried » Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:05 pm

ebotrd wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:53 pm
M3 reservation holders could probably sell them for a few $100...
Unclear how valuable they are at this point. For those looking to buy one of the in-production Model 3 configurations (and are in US or Canada), placing a reservation since last week has sometimes led to the ability to order within 24 hours. Some people placing orders last week for non-AWD LR versions are receiving delivery within a week sooner than the displayed estimates, but those could still be based on time of reservation.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:10 am

autolycus wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:23 pm
That's a net effective price difference of $5,250 all other options being equal (and we would lean toward PUP anyway).

What are people using as the key decision points for LR vs. SR? How many longer trips/year makes it worthwhile if the daily driving is easily handled with SR?
That’s where we are at, with the added wrinkly that my S still gets a rated range of 262 miles on a full charge, putting my car smack dab in between the two. We are leaning towards spending the extra $5k and getting LR, but we haven’t finalized any decision yet.

I know many folks with the smaller battery S and Xes and have been fine, with the penalty of waiting longer/charging more often being outweighed by the cost savings - but again, the savings were more than $5k in those cases.

It’s a tough call and no easy answer.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 6:27 am

HopeToGolf wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:42 pm


Some say buy as much range as you can afford.
Hmmmm. I was doing a configuration for a Porsche 911 GT3 and noticed I could opt for a bigger fuel tank, going from 16.9 gallons to 23.7 for only $140. Certainly a bargain compared with EV extended range options.

Someday.....
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by autolycus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:55 am

harikaried wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:39 pm
so for this particular trip, I would probably need less than 5 minutes of supercharging. If you factor in not needing to deal with a credit card transaction, entering zip code, selecting grade, etc; it could be more convenient supercharging a SR than our current gas vehicle. Hmm.. maybe we could just go with a SR…
I appreciate many of the arguments in favor of EVs. I also appreciate many real-world examples of how supercharging isn't really as bad as some fear. But let's all be realistic: Filling a tank of gas is faster and more convenient than even the ideal supercharging scenarios. There are many, many gas stations that are immediately off the interstate; a gas tank can run for hundreds of miles without needing to be filled; and I can fill a tank of gas in less time than it takes either my wife or I go use the bathroom. It's just a matter of whether it's massively faster and more convenient or just marginally so.

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DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:05 am

Yep. It's getting pretty ridiculous that EV'ers are starting to claim that Supercharging is now "easier, more convenient" than filling up a gas tank.

Indeed, there are positives to owning and operating an electric vehicle. But there are negatives as well.
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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:10 am

autolycus wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:55 am
harikaried wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:39 pm
so for this particular trip, I would probably need less than 5 minutes of supercharging. If you factor in not needing to deal with a credit card transaction, entering zip code, selecting grade, etc; it could be more convenient supercharging a SR than our current gas vehicle. Hmm.. maybe we could just go with a SR…
I appreciate many of the arguments in favor of EVs. I also appreciate many real-world examples of how supercharging isn't really as bad as some fear. But let's all be realistic: Filling a tank of gas is faster and more convenient than even the ideal supercharging scenarios. There are many, many gas stations that are immediately off the interstate; a gas tank can run for hundreds of miles without needing to be filled; and I can fill a tank of gas in less time than it takes either my wife or I go use the bathroom. It's just a matter of whether it's massively faster and more convenient or just marginally so.
DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:05 am
Yep. It's getting pretty ridiculous that EV'ers are starting to claim that Supercharging is now "easier, more convenient" than filling up a gas tank.

Indeed, there are positives to owning and operating an electric vehicle. But there are negatives as well.
This is where context matters. A gas tank is more convenient on a road trip. But for me at least, 90-95% if my travels are not road trips and thus, charging at home and waking up each morning to a “full tank” is more convenient. Again, context matters.

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DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:12 am

Please help with a question folks: Is supercharging free or not?

I recall Elon said supercharging would be "free for life", but then I heard someone said, "for life" ended already.

No judgement on my part, just want the facts.

Free or not? Thanks.
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DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:17 am

BrandonBogle wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:10 am
This is where context matters. A gas tank is more convenient on a road trip. But for me at least, 90-95% if my travels are not road trips and thus, charging at home and waking up each morning to a “full tank” is more convenient. Again, context matters.
Exactly. I agree, waking up to a "full tank" is definitely better and more convenient. And you're right, for most, home charging is the most likely method to "fill up". Thanks.

But when people say supercharging is easier and more convenient than stopping for gas, that makes me shake my head.
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autolycus
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by autolycus » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:36 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:12 am
Please help with a question folks: Is supercharging free or not?

I recall Elon said supercharging would be "free for life", but then I heard someone said, "for life" ended already.

No judgement on my part, just want the facts.

Free or not? Thanks.
He never said it would be free for life for all Tesla buyers forever, but that's not what you asked...

No Model 3 will get any free supercharging.

Model S and X buyers who use a referral code (from a friend, family member, or internet "friend") will get free supercharging for life.

Even Model S and Model X buyers who do not use a referral code are currently given 400kWh of free supercharging credits per year before they have to pay for it.

[CLARIFICATION: A Model S or X that has already been sold with free supercharging will keep that for the life of the vehicle. The above is just the current state of new vehicles moving forward.]

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DanMahowny
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:39 am

autolycus: Got it. Thanks.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:57 am

DanMahowny wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:17 am
BrandonBogle wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 9:10 am
This is where context matters. A gas tank is more convenient on a road trip. But for me at least, 90-95% if my travels are not road trips and thus, charging at home and waking up each morning to a “full tank” is more convenient. Again, context matters.
Exactly. I agree, waking up to a "full tank" is definitely better and more convenient. And you're right, for most, home charging is the most likely method to "fill up". Thanks.

But when people say supercharging is easier and more convenient than stopping for gas, that makes me shake my head.
Realize that on the LR Model 3 you can typically drive for about 3 or more continuous hours between charges, so you are likely going to want to take a driving break at that frequency anyway. Superchargers are strategically located along well traveled routes, to keep them accessible and to minimize the amount of diversion from the ideal route you’re likely to take. It’s not perfect, and if you frequently take trips over 250 miles, it’s not an ideal vehicle in my opinion. If most of your days you drive less than 250 miles, and you are able to charge at home, then it’s a viable option because you’ll always wake up to a full charge. The number of local gas stations is irrelevant - you have your own personal charging station at home. If you occasionally take long road trips, you are covered - the inconvenience is probably not a big deal to most people.
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harikaried
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by harikaried » Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:21 pm

autolycus wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:55 am
Filling a tank of gas is faster and more convenient than even the ideal supercharging scenarios.
I agree that completely filling up a gas tank vs battery is much faster for gas. I was just pointing out for our 250 mile trip, it would be similar amount of time while being more convenient for our usage pattern.

In particular for us, we typically fill up at Costco, and there's 10 locations on this trip, although some of them tend to have a bit of a wait time, so being able to see which Supercharger stations have available stalls is a benefit. Also for Costco gas stations, the machine steps include membership card, credit card, fuel type, receipt; and at least for the credit card step, my wife seems to be running into issues with the card reader sometimes not liking the chip on her card, so that's an occasional hassle. I suppose part of the reason we end up at Costco is that at least for this trip right now, the readily available gas stations are over $4/gal for regular unleaded while Costco is ~25% cheaper. If it's after Costco hours, then we need to spend some minimal effort to compare gas prices from a phone (and sometimes accidentally ending up at Arco and needing to deal with cash), but at least with the Superchargers right now, they're consistently priced and available 24/7, and locations are easily available from Tesla vehicles.

To be clear, we've never driven a Tesla or used a Supercharger, so a lot of this is just using ev trip planning tools and looking at supercharger information, and this could just be a "grass looks greener" type thing. But from what I can see so far for our trip behavior, it looks like a SR for us would result in a similar amount of time for refueling while being more convenient.

In addition to these frequent 250 mile trips, we do occasionally make 300+ mile trips, so that's also part of the reason why we went with LR AWD in reducing the frequency and duration of Supercharger stops. As others have pointed out, one of the main benefits of EVs is that you can do most recharging overnight so that it's ready to go in the morning. This means the usual behavior of always refilling a gas tank to full is not necessary even for long trips, and instead using the Supercharger just enough to get to the destination can be sufficient, so one doesn't need to always compare the time to completely refill a gas tank vs time to completely recharge at a Supercharger.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:00 pm

PhilosophyAndrew wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:16 am

Personally, I find the company’s ability to pull off an accelerated ad hoc assembly line a promising sign of organzatiinal capacity and flexibility. As far as I know, we have no evidence that their QA procedures for that line have slipped — time will tell.

Andy.
Andy, some are giving Tesla a hard time about the tent. They imply the tent is "ad-hoc" and "thrown together." But if we go back to the 2016 Fremont Factory Plan, you will see in #8 that it was planned all along. So, to your point, it can be construed as "rushed and half-baked" or it can be marketed as, "Get S* Done" mentality, where the *S = Stuff

https://fremont.gov/DocumentCenter/View ... nal?bidId=

Anyway, brought DW in to see the Model 3 finally. She was very impressed, except was thrown off by the screen floating in the center of the car. It wasn't a huge deal to her, and I think she would get used to it, but it was a negative to her.

On the bright side, she *loved* the Model X. Perhaps, I should start a new thread, "To take or not take delivery of Tesla X." :-)


Having said all that, I still don't know what to do. We can order and it would be awesome to get the car before September prior to the Holiday road trips. But the immediate issue is replacing her car, not mine. We are basically stalling until we either come to grips with the fact that we can afford one (we can) and take the plunge? or her car dies and we are pushed to do so more quickly. We have time as we think this through. The question is whether we are proactive about it and risk being too soon, or reactive and deal with drama, while saving money until we have to spend it.

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HomerJ
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 pm

harikaried wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:21 pm
This means the usual behavior of always refilling a gas tank to full is not necessary even for long trips, and instead using the Supercharger just enough to get to the destination can be sufficient, so one doesn't need to always compare the time to completely refill a gas tank vs time to completely recharge at a Supercharger.
Well, only if you are sure your destination has a way to charge overnight.

How much does a charge cost if you just use a standard outlet in your sister's garage? (Hey sis, can I run up your electric bill, oh and I need to park in your garage too for the cord, so move your car out to the street, eh?)
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BrandonBogle
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:14 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 pm
harikaried wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:21 pm
This means the usual behavior of always refilling a gas tank to full is not necessary even for long trips, and instead using the Supercharger just enough to get to the destination can be sufficient, so one doesn't need to always compare the time to completely refill a gas tank vs time to completely recharge at a Supercharger.
Well, only if you are sure your destination has a way to charge overnight.

How much does a charge cost if you just use a standard outlet in your sister's garage? (Hey sis, can I run up your electric bill, oh and I need to park in your garage too for the cord, so move your car out to the street, eh?)
Your mileage will vary, but where I live I pay $0.085 / kWh. With my 85 kWh battery (that includes its reserve, so never charging that entire thing), I’d be looking st roughly $7.25 for a full charge. There will be some losses from inefficiencies (a 120v outlet will run mechanics monitoring the charge longer than a 240v dryer outlet), but I would say NC would average $10 or less. Again, electric costs vary greatly. My buddy drove from Raleigh to Syracuse in his Model 3 and it was a total of $13 and change for his charging each way.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:26 pm

BrandonBogle wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:14 pm
Your mileage will vary, but where I live I pay $0.085 / kWh. With my 85 kWh battery (that includes its reserve, so never charging that entire thing), I’d be looking st roughly $7.25 for a full charge. There will be some losses from inefficiencies (a 120v outlet will run mechanics monitoring the charge longer than a 240v dryer outlet), but I would say NC would average $10 or less. Again, electric costs vary greatly. My buddy drove from Raleigh to Syracuse in his Model 3 and it was a total of $13 and change for his charging each way.
As skeptical as I am about recent Teslas, I am a huge fan of EVs. Especially in an urban environment. I have ChargePoint charger which knows my electricity rates. I haven't even programmed it to only charge at the lowest rate times, etc because the convenience is more important to me than saving perhaps $2 and having a low battery late in the afternoon or something b/c it didn't start to charge yet (a BMW i3 doesn't have the battery size of a Tesla). When people ask me about it my favorite thing to do is show my charging app. I replaced a BMW X1 with a BMW i3. I live in the center of a large city ( a few blocks from the Tesla store funny enough) and my X1 was averaging 16 mpg at $4.25/gallon+ here in the City.

According to the App I drove 683 miles in June and it cost me $21. Would have been $181.42 in the BMW X1.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by mervinj7 » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:30 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:08 pm
Well, only if you are sure your destination has a way to charge overnight.

How much does a charge cost if you just use a standard outlet in your sister's garage? (Hey sis, can I run up your electric bill, oh and I need to park in your garage too for the cord, so move your car out to the street, eh?)
If I ever had to charge my Nissan Leaf at a friends' house, I would leave them a six-pack of beer as compensation for "running up" their electric bill. But that's only cause I live in CA where the average cost of electricity is $0.18/kWh. For 40 kWh from empty, that comes out to $7.20 for a "fill-up."

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by BrandonBogle » Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:55 pm

matjen wrote:
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:26 pm
As skeptical as I am about recent Teslas, I am a huge fan of EVs. Especially in an urban environment. I have ChargePoint charger which knows my electricity rates.

According to the App I drove 683 miles in June and it cost me $21. Would have been $181.42 in the BMW X1.
I like their charts. The cost here is $0 because my work offers free charging.

Image

Today I charged at home (partially) and you can see there is some charging losses. 90% is about average for my charging efficiency.

Image

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:45 am

kchico wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:35 am
The model 3 is an amazing car no question about it and is recommended by Consumer Reports. No other car offers a similar or better range and it's current price point.
The Chevrolet Bolt certainly offers similar range, at a lower price point.

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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:47 pm

Presented without comment.

[OT twitter content removed by admin LadyGeek]

Image

Image
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by roflwaffle » Sat Jul 07, 2018 10:50 am

matjen wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:04 pm
OK, possible I suppose. Certainly can't rule it out. Doesn't explain an empty track and the general logisitics issue. That tiny track would have to be filled with cars 24/7. It ain't.

I'm gonna give roflwaffle the 1 as a courtesy but only as a courtesy for actually watching the video. I hope it is a forum member's car that "may" have been near the track. :beer
5,000 cars/week is an average of 2 minutes/car for testing, and in the less than a minute the drone was over the track it recorded a car leaving the track. :beer
madbrain wrote:
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:45 am
kchico wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 9:35 am
The model 3 is an amazing car no question about it and is recommended by Consumer Reports. No other car offers a similar or better range and it's current price point.
The Chevrolet Bolt certainly offers similar range, at a lower price point.
:confused
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do ... 6&id=39836

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm

As I'm sure you are aware, "long-range" is an option for the model 3.

But even the long-range M3 only has 30% more range than the Bolt. I'm not sure how significant a difference that really is, to be honest. I'm having difficulty figuring out trips that I would consider making with a 310 miles range car that I wouldn't consider making in a 238 miles range car.
If we were talking about 80 miles vs 104 miles, sure, the 30% would be much more significant. Sometimes you just need to hit a price point, and the M3 doesn't hit it for me - it didn't 18 months ago when I bought my Bolt, and no M3 had been produced, and the long-range model still wouldn't if I were going to buy a new EV today.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by roflwaffle » Sun Jul 08, 2018 6:30 pm

madbrain wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm
As I'm sure you are aware, "long-range" is an option for the model 3.

But even the long-range M3 only has 30% more range than the Bolt. I'm not sure how significant a difference that really is, to be honest. I'm having difficulty figuring out trips that I would consider making with a 310 miles range car that I wouldn't consider making in a 238 miles range car.
If we were talking about 80 miles vs 104 miles, sure, the 30% would be much more significant. Sometimes you just need to hit a price point, and the M3 doesn't hit it for me - it didn't 18 months ago when I bought my Bolt, and no M3 had been produced, and the long-range model still wouldn't if I were going to buy a new EV today.
It and the Pup have been the only option since the car was launched. I imagine the 200+ mile version will be made sooner or later, but it's not being built yet. Next year is what I've heard, although I'd love to see it released in Q4.

I guess the range isn't an issue if you don't need it for typical use, but I still wouldn't say 30% more range is similar range. Unless of course you're willing to exchange my X dollars for your X + 30% dollars. In that case I agree completely. :mrgreen:

Also, Tesla requested the 3 be rated at 310 miles instead of the 334 miles they saw from testing, although that could be to account for the stickier 19" Sport wheels in case someone purchased those, the car managing the battery/using energy even when it's off, or even to differentiate it from the S 100D (335 miles of range).

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_ ... 001&flag=1

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:12 am

madbrain wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm
As I'm sure you are aware, "long-range" is an option for the model 3.

But even the long-range M3 only has 30% more range than the Bolt. I'm not sure how significant a difference that really is, to be honest. I'm having difficulty figuring out trips that I would consider making with a 310 miles range car that I wouldn't consider making in a 238 miles range car.
If we were talking about 80 miles vs 104 miles, sure, the 30% would be much more significant. Sometimes you just need to hit a price point, and the M3 doesn't hit it for me - it didn't 18 months ago when I bought my Bolt, and no M3 had been produced, and the long-range model still wouldn't if I were going to buy a new EV today.
A distinguishing factor of Tesla is that they have a dedicated network of fast charging stations (called Superchargers) strategically located across the country. You can stop and charge your Tesla at them, typically a 20-30 minute charge, every few hours to extend your driving range. People rely on them and take cross country trips in their Teslas.
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:25 am

Longdog wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:12 am
madbrain wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm
As I'm sure you are aware, "long-range" is an option for the model 3.

But even the long-range M3 only has 30% more range than the Bolt. I'm not sure how significant a difference that really is, to be honest. I'm having difficulty figuring out trips that I would consider making with a 310 miles range car that I wouldn't consider making in a 238 miles range car.
If we were talking about 80 miles vs 104 miles, sure, the 30% would be much more significant. Sometimes you just need to hit a price point, and the M3 doesn't hit it for me - it didn't 18 months ago when I bought my Bolt, and no M3 had been produced, and the long-range model still wouldn't if I were going to buy a new EV today.
A distinguishing factor of Tesla is that they have a dedicated network of fast charging stations (called Superchargers) strategically located across the country. You can stop and charge your Tesla at them, typically a 20-30 minute charge, every few hours to extend your driving range. People rely on them and take cross country trips in their Teslas.
Not distinguishing.

There are plenty of CCS/SAE chargers suitable for long road trips in my Bolt around me. Drove 500 miles last weekend in fact.

And more all the time. Whole bunch of new 150 kW ones being rolled out over the next 12 mos.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Longdog » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:47 am

just frank wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:25 am
Longdog wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:12 am
madbrain wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm
As I'm sure you are aware, "long-range" is an option for the model 3.

But even the long-range M3 only has 30% more range than the Bolt. I'm not sure how significant a difference that really is, to be honest. I'm having difficulty figuring out trips that I would consider making with a 310 miles range car that I wouldn't consider making in a 238 miles range car.
If we were talking about 80 miles vs 104 miles, sure, the 30% would be much more significant. Sometimes you just need to hit a price point, and the M3 doesn't hit it for me - it didn't 18 months ago when I bought my Bolt, and no M3 had been produced, and the long-range model still wouldn't if I were going to buy a new EV today.
A distinguishing factor of Tesla is that they have a dedicated network of fast charging stations (called Superchargers) strategically located across the country. You can stop and charge your Tesla at them, typically a 20-30 minute charge, every few hours to extend your driving range. People rely on them and take cross country trips in their Teslas.
Not distinguishing.

There are plenty of CCS/SAE chargers suitable for long road trips in my Bolt around me. Drove 500 miles last weekend in fact.

And more all the time. Whole bunch of new 150 kW ones being rolled out over the next 12 mos.
That’s good to know! I knew there were charging stations but was unaware that they could charge as quickly as the Superchargers.
Steve

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by roflwaffle » Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:53 am

just frank wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:25 am
Longdog wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:12 am
madbrain wrote:
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:32 pm
As I'm sure you are aware, "long-range" is an option for the model 3.

But even the long-range M3 only has 30% more range than the Bolt. I'm not sure how significant a difference that really is, to be honest. I'm having difficulty figuring out trips that I would consider making with a 310 miles range car that I wouldn't consider making in a 238 miles range car.
If we were talking about 80 miles vs 104 miles, sure, the 30% would be much more significant. Sometimes you just need to hit a price point, and the M3 doesn't hit it for me - it didn't 18 months ago when I bought my Bolt, and no M3 had been produced, and the long-range model still wouldn't if I were going to buy a new EV today.
A distinguishing factor of Tesla is that they have a dedicated network of fast charging stations (called Superchargers) strategically located across the country. You can stop and charge your Tesla at them, typically a 20-30 minute charge, every few hours to extend your driving range. People rely on them and take cross country trips in their Teslas.
Not distinguishing.

There are plenty of CCS/SAE chargers suitable for long road trips in my Bolt around me. Drove 500 miles last weekend in fact.

And more all the time. Whole bunch of new 150 kW ones being rolled out over the next 12 mos.
There are CCS/SAE chargers available, but CCS is I think about a half hour for 75 miles of range in a Bolt compared to 125 miles in 15 minutes/210 miles in a half hour with the 3 on a supercharger, and CCS doesn't have the coverage the Supercharger network does. SAE chargers have better coverage, but they charge at far lower rates than CCS does.

https://insideevs.com/planning-a-long-j ... -ampera-e/
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads ... kw.107619/

I'm sure someone could take a cross country trip in a Bolt, or even a first gen Leaf with careful planning, but the Supercharger network has the best combination of fast charging speeds, availability, and coverage at the moment, which is what I'm guessing is what Longdog referred to.

Edited to update Bolt charging with link and more accurate figure.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:59 pm

Not gonna disagree with current CCS being slower than Super. My Bolt runs 43 kW (actual) below 50%SOC at the best current CCS chargers....its ~75 HW miles added per 30 minute stop.

Newer CCS will take my Bolt to 65 kW (actual), about 105 miles added in 30 minutes, I expect to have plenty of those around me in a year or two.

Many Tesla super charging sites also hit charging speed limits when crowded, high SOC, etc.

Don't know if I would want to cross-country in a Tesla or my Bolt. But both suit a 250-400 mile drive ok if the chargers are available.

AS with all things, get a Tesla if you want one. But a Bolt might suit your use case, and would be cheaper.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by autolycus » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:31 pm

First, I agree with your general point that the Bolt's range is plenty for most uses.
just frank wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:59 pm
Not gonna disagree with current CCS being slower than Super. My Bolt runs 43 kW (actual) below 50%SOC at the best current CCS chargers....its ~75 HW miles added per 30 minute stop.

Newer CCS will take my Bolt to 65 kW (actual), about 105 miles added in 30 minutes, I expect to have plenty of those around me in a year or two.
The charging infrastructure is going to have to improve A LOT over the numbers you're giving if EVs are ever going to be truly ubiquitous. At your current rate, that's basically a 50% increase in time for most people to travel on a highway (half hour of charging for every ~hour of driving). Even the newer CCS station number you gave is pretty terrible compared to filling a tank of gas (and compared to a Tesla supercharger). CCS theoretically has much better potential charge rates. I wonder why nobody is actually installing charging stations that take advantage of the 150kW range that is possible with the standard.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by madbrain » Mon Jul 09, 2018 7:49 pm

just frank wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:25 am
There are plenty of CCS/SAE chargers suitable for long road trips in my Bolt around me. Drove 500 miles last weekend in fact.
Still not true in California, unfortunately. I would not consider driving from San Jose to LA in my Bolt, due to there not being a single CCS charger on the shortest route, I-5. That's why we have a Volt too. I think it's also true that Superchargers charge much faster. I think Tesla has the edge on this one, but you do pay for it, and you may still run into lines at some Superchargers.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Mon Jul 09, 2018 8:44 pm

The CCS infrastructure IS set to improve a lot nationwide in both number and power. I also expect that future non-Tesla EVs will accept higher charging speeds to match that infrastructure.

But if going >300-400 miles frequently is your EV use case then Tesla is your option today.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by roflwaffle » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:21 am

just frank wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:59 pm
Not gonna disagree with current CCS being slower than Super. My Bolt runs 43 kW (actual) below 50%SOC at the best current CCS chargers....its ~75 HW miles added per 30 minute stop.

Newer CCS will take my Bolt to 65 kW (actual), about 105 miles added in 30 minutes, I expect to have plenty of those around me in a year or two.

Many Tesla super charging sites also hit charging speed limits when crowded, high SOC, etc.

Don't know if I would want to cross-country in a Tesla or my Bolt. But both suit a 250-400 mile drive ok if the chargers are available.

AS with all things, get a Tesla if you want one. But a Bolt might suit your use case, and would be cheaper.
I'm not sure if you'll actually add 105 miles in 30 minutes with current throttling, but you might. AFAIK, charger throttling applies to CCS too when a station is crowded, the battery SOC increase, etc... The biggest downside to all of the Level 2/CCS/Chademo stations I've looked up is the limited number of chargers available at each one. IIRC, Tesla averages something like 8+ superchargers per stop, which really helps with wait times/etc...

The lowest supercharging speed I've seen on my 3 is about 250+mph at 55+kW, so 125+ miles in a half hour, but it's usually 125+ miles in about 15 minutes. :beer

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by harikaried » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:47 pm

ebotrd wrote:
Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:53 pm
M3 reservation holders could probably sell them for a few $100...
Just to follow up, ordering (in the US and Canada) is open to anybody without needing a reservation now:

https://3.tesla.com/model3/design

It sounds like the original reservation date will be a factor for whether one is earlier or later in the 3-month delivery window, so someone could indeed value an earlier reservation spot. Note that it's still only Long Range and Premium Interior that's available to order now, although for those waiting on a Short Range, it seems less likely that purchasing an earlier reservation spot will be in budget; but then again, with the changing status of federal Tesla EV credits, that could then increase the reservation spot's importance.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:59 pm

I am one of those early advance reservation holder.
The current configuration price is out of my range and I was holding for the base car.

From a purely business perspective, there is no incentive for Tesla to deliver base models when the full tax credit is in picture. They have higher profit margins on the current model sale and Federal govt is subsidizing 7500 of that price. So both tesla and the customer come out ahead in a way.

I fully understand and waiting for that 35K car to be made available early next year. I will then reevaluate my options of what other cars are in the market and make a decision then.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:44 pm

This is an indication of no demand for a 55k+ Model 3. Even if only 33% of the original 450k reservation holders wanted one that would be like 145k in the pipeline and they are only building a few thousand a month. 5k if you believe all of Tesla’s puffery.

Cash grab to make numbers look better. The 35k version isn’t even an option now on the configuration website but, of course, it is still listed as starting at “ only” 35k “before incentives” on the splash page. Unbelievable. What a joke. :annoyed
Last edited by matjen on Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:11 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:04 pm

I believed Musk in April 2016. I know better now.

The $35k model3 was a lie.
Funding secured

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:27 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:04 pm
I believed Musk in April 2016. I know better now.

The $35k model3 was a lie.
Seems to me that people who keep their “reservation” are just making a loan to Tesla to help them make someone else’s car. Someone who just jumped in line well in front of them.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by bob60014 » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:47 pm

Now there is no need for a reservation deposit!

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/10/tesla-m ... posit.html

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:37 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:44 pm
This is an indication of no demand for a 55k+ Model 3. Even if only 33% of the original 450k reservation holders wanted one that would be like 145k in the pipeline and they are only building a few thousand a month. 5k if you believe all of Tesla’s puffery.

Cash grab to make numbers look better. The 35k version isn’t even an option now on the configuration website but, of course, it is still listed as starting at “ only” 35k “before incentives” on the splash page. Unbelievable. What a joke. :annoyed

Aren’t they close to making 5,000 per week, not per month?

It makes perfect sense to me why they would build higher-margin cars first. When they start offering the base model, that will suggest that the demand for those cars has fallen.

Andy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:45 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:27 pm
Seems to me that people who keep their “reservation” are just making a loan to Tesla to help them make someone else’s car. Someone who just jumped in line well in front of them.
My understanding (from my wife, who is the Tesla fan in the family) is that, from the start, factors like location and prior ownership of a Tesla would affect delivery date. If so, reservation number never aligned exactly with delivery order; the new changes just seem a variation on that theme.

As first-time purchasers living on the east coast, we expected delivery around the end of 2018. The company beat that by six months.

Andy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:48 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:04 pm
I believed Musk in April 2016. I know better now.

The $35k model3 was a lie.
Do you believe the base model will never be offered, or are you simply disappointed that it isn’t offered yet, or did they literally lie in their marketing materials? If the last is the case, I’m sure you can report them to your state’s attorney general for investigation and punishment,

Andy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:49 pm

PhilosophyAndrew wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:37 pm

Aren’t they close to making 5,000 per week, not per month?

It makes perfect sense to me why they would build higher-margin cars first. When they start offering the base model, that will suggest that the demand for those cars has fallen.

Andy.
:oops: You are 100% right about the week/month mistake. Though I honestly, truly believe they aren't close to 5k a week. Their paint shop for Fremont is only licensed for 5K a week total. This is why we had the "factory-gated" nonsense. If they had 100k-200k of reservations of people interested in the more expensive vehicles they would not have needed to do this now. They could have waited a few months minimum. This is about Q3 cash IMO. Agree it makes sense to build the expensive cars but they are obviously super low on those in the queue. Their production in July has been horrid as well. It will not be 5k a week this month.

I believe the 35k Model 3 will not appear for another year+ if ever. This is literally on their website 2 minutes ago. This is NOT true. Someday perhaps, but not now. There isn't even an option on the configurator. Actually, possibly never true depending on how one views the "incentives" which of course Tesla refuses to clarify along with the amount of "reservations."

Image

You got your delivery early because there is no demand obviously. They can't profitably make a 35k model (Musk has admitted this) and there is no demand for an expensive model. To the extent there is it is likely cannibalizing Model S sales I bet as well. Difficult posture it seems to me. I mean even Elektek which is basically's Tesla's in house PR arm wasn't too happy about this. My guess is they are having mighty production issues so they are producing cars in batches rather than to order. If your order fits a car that was made then bingo.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/09/tesla-mo ... -everyone/
Electrek’s Take

Tesla’s reservation process for the Model 3 has been somewhat controversial. The level of priority reservation holders ended up getting has been questionable.

Aside for first-day reservation holders in California, who clearly were able to order before anyone else, the rest of the rollout has been murkier.

It has been exacerbated by Tesla’s geographic rollout of the Model 3 and limiting the available configurations.

For example, I placed a reservation on the first day, but as someone waiting for the performance version in Canada, I was only able to place my order last month when everyone was able to place an order.

Unless I end up getting my Model 3 before people who placed their reservation after me, which I doubt will happen since I have the same delivery window for my order as anybody else, it will mean that I gave Tesla a $1,000 2-year long interest-free loan.

From that perspective, the reservation process wasn’t really useful. I am sure it was successful in other ways.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by ThriftyPhD » Tue Jul 10, 2018 8:32 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:49 pm
Though I honestly, truly believe they aren't close to 5k a week. Their paint shop for Fremont is only licensed for 5K a week total. This is why we had the "factory-gated" nonsense. If they had 100k-200k of reservations of people interested in the more expensive vehicles they would not have needed to do this now. They could have waited a few months minimum. This is about Q3 cash IMO. Agree it makes sense to build the expensive cars but they are obviously super low on those in the queue. Their production in July has been horrid as well. It will not be 5k a week this month.
Just to try and reduce the hyperbole in this thread, do you really mean to claim that Tesla is lying to investors when they claim to hit 5k a week Model 3, 7k Models 3, S, and X in the last week of Q2? And that they're projecting an increase to 6k a week next month for Model 3 when you have proof their paint shop capacity is maxed out at 5k a week?

Would this be securities fraud to knowingly lie to investors?

If true, would the billions of dollars shorting TSLA be aware of this, and filing lawsuit for the fraud?
matjen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:44 pm
This is an indication of no demand for a 55k+ Model 3. Even if only 33% of the original 450k reservation holders wanted one that would be like 145k in the pipeline and they are only building a few thousand a month. 5k if you believe all of Tesla’s puffery.
I'm seeing $49k. Where do you get $55k? Are you adding a paint job and enhanced auto pilot? $49k gets you long range, stock wheels, black, standard autopilot, premium interior. The increase from $35k is the premium interior ($5k, they aren't offering standard yet) and extended range ($9k).

They produced 41k as of the end of Q2. At 5k/week, that's 20k/month. As a non reservation holder, I'm seeing 3-5 month wait if I order now. If 3 months, that means they will have produced another 120k cars before I would get mine, and that's without the expected ramp in production that is baked into the 3-5 month estimate. That's a total of 160k long range cars. 33% of 450 is... 148.5k.

So, no demand for the car, but months long wait to buy one.

I also find it interesting that people complained that you couldn't configure or get an estimate without a reservation. Now that they've opened it up to everyone, those same people complain. Do you know why people would complain about something, and then complain when their original complaint was addressed?
DanMahowny wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:04 pm
I believed Musk in April 2016. I know better now.

The $35k model3 was a lie.
So you think they announced a $35k version knowing that they would never make it? Or did you incorrectly assume that the $35k version would be the first to roll off the assembly? Was your expectation that they would start with the lowest margin option first, and then only make the higher margin version last? Does any other company release products this way?

Between matjen and DanMahowny, this thread is starting to read like a Seeking Alpha post where all the shorters complain about everything Tesla does.

You've both made your positions on Tesla in general and the Model 3 in specific quite clear. For those of us actually interested in the vehicle and wanting to discuss the more practical aspects of timing/options, would you mind lightening up on the fear mongering?

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by harikaried » Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:18 pm

matjen wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:49 pm
I believe the 35k Model 3 will not appear for another year+ if ever. … Actually, possibly never true depending on how one views the "incentives" which of course Tesla refuses to clarify along with the amount of "reservations."
What are you trying to say will never be true in regards to the incentives? Assuming you've misunderstood something instead of purposely misleading people, here's what's on the design page:

"Standard Battery available in 6-9 months"
"The entry level $35,000 Model 3 without upgrades, will become available as production ramps."
"Electric Vehicle Incentives Model 3 qualifies for a $7,500 federal tax credit and other state sponsored tax incentives and rebates. Visit your state program's website for information on eligibility and availability." linking to https://www.tesla.com/support/incentives

Perhaps you're thinking the $35k Model 3 is the price after $7,500 federal tax credit, so when that drops by half in the 3rd quarter from reaching 200k vehicles sold in the US, maybe you thought that $35k Model 3 would become a $39k Model 3. To be clear, the $35k price is the base price before incentives, although there were indeed people making reservations years ago hoping that they could get a Model 3 for $27.5k with the federal tax credit.

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