matjen wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:49 pm
Though I honestly, truly believe they aren't close to 5k a week. Their paint shop for Fremont is only licensed for 5K a week total. This is why we had the "factory-gated" nonsense. If they had 100k-200k of reservations of people interested in the more expensive vehicles they would not have needed to do this now. They could have waited a few months minimum. This is about Q3 cash IMO. Agree it makes sense to build the expensive cars but they are obviously super low on those in the queue. Their production in July has been horrid as well. It will not be 5k a week this month.
Just to try and reduce the hyperbole in this thread, do you really mean to claim that Tesla is lying to investors when they claim to hit 5k a week Model 3, 7k Models 3, S, and X in the last week of Q2? And that they're projecting an increase to 6k a week next month for Model 3 when you have proof their paint shop capacity is maxed out at 5k a week?
Would this be securities fraud to knowingly lie to investors?
If true, would the billions of dollars shorting TSLA be aware of this, and filing lawsuit for the fraud?
matjen wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:44 pm
This is an indication of no demand for a 55k+ Model 3. Even if only 33% of the original 450k reservation holders wanted one that would be like 145k in the pipeline and they are only building a few thousand a month. 5k if you believe all of Tesla’s puffery.
I'm seeing $49k. Where do you get $55k? Are you adding a paint job and enhanced auto pilot? $49k gets you long range, stock wheels, black, standard autopilot, premium interior. The increase from $35k is the premium interior ($5k, they aren't offering standard yet) and extended range ($9k).
They produced 41k as of the end of Q2. At 5k/week, that's 20k/month. As a non reservation holder, I'm seeing 3-5 month wait if I order now. If 3 months, that means they will have produced another 120k cars before I would get mine, and that's without the expected ramp in production that is baked into the 3-5 month estimate. That's a total of 160k long range cars. 33% of 450 is... 148.5k.
So, no demand for the car, but months long wait to buy one.
I also find it interesting that people complained that you couldn't configure or get an estimate without a reservation. Now that they've opened it up to everyone, those same people complain. Do you know why people would complain about something, and then complain when their original complaint was addressed?
DanMahowny wrote: ↑
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:04 pm
I believed Musk in April 2016. I know better now.
The $35k model3 was a lie.
So you think they announced a $35k version knowing that they would never make it? Or did you incorrectly assume that the $35k version would be the first to roll off the assembly? Was your expectation that they would start with the lowest margin option first, and then only make the higher margin version last? Does any other company release products this way?
Between matjen and DanMahowny, this thread is starting to read like a Seeking Alpha post where all the shorters complain about everything Tesla does.
You've both made your positions on Tesla in general and the Model 3 in specific quite clear. For those of us actually interested in the vehicle and wanting to discuss the more practical aspects of timing/options, would you mind lightening up on the fear mongering?