To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

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Strummer
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Strummer » Fri May 04, 2018 2:36 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 1:30 pm
Strummer, great stuff. I had not realized Elon responded and I totally see where he's coming from.
My pleasure! It makes sense when you hear his explanation. I think he has a problem shared by a lot of very smart people in that he responds in a way which has an obvious explanation to him, but others may not get where he's coming from. With the company under the full onslaught of both hordes of short sellers and an auto industry that is collectively, um, soiling itself over what Tesla is bringing to market (both in terms of product and business model), that communication gap is being actively exploited as often as possible by people who want to cast anything Tesla in a poor light.

Full disclosure: I own some TSLA but it's less than one percent of my portfolio. My plan is to sell in 2028 or later.
FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 1:30 pm
I had a question about roadtrips.... I am enthusiastic about going on roadtrips and have 2 questions:

1. Have you used plugshare to route. It seems like there are a ton of plugs all over the place. Lots of NEMA 14-50s at RV spots, for example. Do you know how fast they charge and/or do you have any real world examples? In a previous post, I expressed concern about roadtripping to Glacier National Park, but looking on plugshare, there are a ton right along the route. Nice place to stop for dinner while charging. And I have to believe there will be an explosion of new chargers (Tesla branded vs just regular old plugs) all over the place in the next 6-18mo.

https://www.plugshare.com/

2. My hypothesis is that having EAP would give me a 2nd set of eyes while on long road trips where there is just a lot of long monotonous highway miles. Real world experience? I am hearing it gets better every few months, so I'm hoping it will be really useful by the end of the year.
We haven't done any road tripping yet but when we do, I think my first choice would be to use the supercharger network. That said, your idea of using the NEMA outlets at RV parks is quite intriguing, especially if/when the Model 3 software is updated to include camper mode. The rear seats in the 3 fold flat and it would be easy to roll out a pad and a sleeping bag and enjoy a night in climate-controlled comfort!

Re: question two, I've been using the adaptive cruise control more than autopilot, just because I'm trying to become accustomed to the new tech gradually. The cruise control is great in traffic — your job is to steer and it handles acceleration and braking, all the way down to a complete stop. That said, I did a 40-minute freeway drive yesterday and used autopilot a lot, and it definitely made it easier. We drive from the Bay Area to LA at least once a year and I'm really looking forward to using it then, because that I-5 drive and traffic patterns are perfectly suited to it. So, I think your hypothesis is solid.

TravelGeek
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Fri May 04, 2018 2:40 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 12:12 pm
Ha ha. The point is that Tesla has not done any marketing.
Are you perhaps confusing marketing with advertising? ;)

What, if not marketing, is anything Musk does in public? And especially his various rollout events (Model 3, Truck, new roadster)? Just because he doesn’t pay for ad time on TV does not mean he isn’t (cleverly) marketing his brand and products.
Last edited by TravelGeek on Fri May 04, 2018 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Nate79
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Nate79 » Fri May 04, 2018 2:47 pm

Well, Musk now admits that he was wrong to ignore the analysts questions and should have answered them live. He was also wrong in his reasoning in the first place because the analysts that actually asked the questions had a NEUTRAL rating, not SELL rating as most analysts. Only answer the questions of analysts that have BUY ratings is foolish and his attitude was wrong, inappropriate, foolish, childish, etc. If a CEO from any other company tried that stunt they would be fired.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by LadyGeek » Fri May 04, 2018 3:50 pm

The discussion is starting to derail (complaining about Musk). Please stay on-topic, which is deciding (or not) to take delivery of the Tesla 3.
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matjen
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Fri May 04, 2018 9:53 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:02 am
I had reserved Tesla 3 when it was announced...According to the web site I can get the delivery by Dec-Feb time frame"
Conan has thoughts on this topic... :P

"Why don't you give us $2,000 and find out...in 2024"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mCPpWn2Dog
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HomerJ
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Sun May 06, 2018 11:45 pm

Leif wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 11:13 am
HomerJ wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 11:08 pm

Gas cars are far superior as roadtrip cars. There's no way I'm stopping for 45 minutes every few hours to recharge my car on a road-trip. And that's assuming there's always a open charger. Half of my road-trips aren't even on super highways. There are zero convenient superchargers on the back-roads on the shortest and quickest path to the lake.
I don't really care about needing to stop on occasion to charge. My Model S maximum range is around 300 miles. But the practical range is around 250 miles. At 70 mph that is good for 3+ hours. After that time I want to take a break. The superchargers are normally placed near spots with multiple food choices.
That's great that you don't mind stopping every 3 hours and having a meal for 45 minutes. That's great that you only travel on large highways with superchargers spaced at just the right distance so you can stop every 3 hours.

So it works for you. But not for everyone. There's a lot more to this country than super highways with superchargers spaced 200 miles apart. Gas stations are everywhere. Gas stations work for every driver. If you want to stick to interstates, and stop every 3 hour and have a meal for 45 minutes you can. If you want to take less traveled roads, you can do that also with gas cars.

EVs are limited. They do fill the needs for many many people. But not everyone. Gas cars are less limited.

It's really that simple. Tesla is not a general "road-trip" car. No EV is yet. Maybe someday. Not yet.
I fully expect that battery technology will improve quickly. If that happens my next EV may well be a 500+ mile car (probably in 5+ years) with even faster charging then today. The Tesla supercharges charge at 120 KW. The newer chargers being planned are at 350 KW hours. That is nearly 3 times the power. But that is peak power and batteries do not charge at peak power throughout. But, if it can charge in 1/2 the time that would be nice, but not that useful. Why? At least for me the charging mostly occurs in my garage over night. Each morning I have a full battery.
This is great too, but not relevant to the discussion. Yes, maybe someday batteries will be better. Yes, it's great that you charge your EV every night in your garage.

We're discussing if Teslas are good general "road-trip" cars. They aren't. Not yet.

The only EV I will buy in the next 5 years will be the new hybrid types that run on electricity until the battery runs down, but still have a gas engine (used purely as a generator to recharge the battery). It's the perfect combo, in my opinion. All electric for short commutes, but can also be used for long trips anywhere.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon May 07, 2018 12:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Mon May 07, 2018 12:07 am

FoolStreet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 11:19 pm
I wouldn't think twice about heading to Yosemite, Zions, Moab, Yellowstone.
For fun, I checked the https://supercharge.info/ site.

You would be extremely limited if you went to Yellowstone with a Tesla. Instead of actually driving through the National Forest, you'd have to stick to the major highways or risk getting stuck. Have you ever taken Highway 14 through the BigHorn National Forest and Yellowstone National Park? Very scenic.

Too bad you'd miss it, because it's 350 miles from the supercharger in Sheridan to the one in West Yellowstone. But don't worry, you could get there using Interstate 90 instead. What an adventure!

Look, I know we all have different opinions. I'm not saying my way of driving across country or my way to explore national parks is better than yours. But EVs are currently limited where gas-engine cars are not.

I'm not saying Teslas are terrible. They are amazing. But they are not "road-trip" cars for many people. I don't mind people talking about how great Teslas are. But I do mind when they make up stuff like "Oh, you can go anywhere, and super-chargers are just as convenient as gas stations!"

It's not true yet.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 07, 2018 1:43 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 12:07 am
You would be extremely limited if you went to Yellowstone with a Tesla. Instead of actually driving through the National Forest, you'd have to stick to the major highways or risk getting stuck. Have you ever taken Highway 14 through the BigHorn National Forest and Yellowstone National Park? Very scenic.

Too bad you'd miss it, because it's 350 miles from the supercharger in Sheridan to the one in West Yellowstone. But don't worry, you could get there using Interstate 90 instead. What an adventure!
For someone who apparently has no interest in getting an EV or Tesla you spend an aweful lot of time arguing about it :)

Turns out there are Level 2 chargers along the way, e.g., in Cody, WY (148 miles from Sheridan, WY). I have never taken that trip, but from the photos on PlugShare I can confirm that Tesla S/X drivers have dared to go there. And they seem to have not minded taking a perhaps somewhat longer break.

And if your idea of a road trip is that a stop of 45 mins after 250-300 miles of driving is too inconvenient, we have very different roadtrip travel styles. 750-900 miles of daily driving with just two 45 min breaks sounds painful to me. I would drive less and also stop more often. I love coffee and thus need potty breaks. And I also get tired and getting out of the vehicle and walking around a bit helps me “wake up”.
I'm not saying Teslas are terrible. They are amazing. But they are not "road-trip" cars for many people.
That is certainly true, because “many” isn’t very specific. I would argue they would work fine for many people’s roadtrip needs, and it would be equally correct.

To bring this thread back on topic: I finalized my decision today to not buy a Model 3 (still waitlisted, not invited to configure yet). I bought a new 2018 Nissan LEAF instead. The deciding factors were cost and what I actually needed in an EV. Details upthread in previous messages. I will be canceling my pre-order soon.

When will they start taking pre-orders for the Model Y? :shock: :twisted:

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 4nursebee » Mon May 07, 2018 4:24 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 12:07 am
FoolStreet wrote:
Thu May 03, 2018 11:19 pm
I wouldn't think twice about heading to Yosemite, Zions, Moab, Yellowstone.
For fun, I checked the https://supercharge.info/ site.

You would be extremely limited if you went to Yellowstone with a Tesla. Instead of actually driving through the National Forest, you'd have to stick to the major highways or risk getting stuck. Have you ever taken Highway 14 through the BigHorn National Forest and Yellowstone National Park? Very scenic.

Too bad you'd miss it, because it's 350 miles from the supercharger in Sheridan to the one in West Yellowstone. But don't worry, you could get there using Interstate 90 instead. What an adventure!

Look, I know we all have different opinions. I'm not saying my way of driving across country or my way to explore national parks is better than yours. But EVs are currently limited where gas-engine cars are not.

I'm not saying Teslas are terrible. They are amazing. But they are not "road-trip" cars for many people. I don't mind people talking about how great Teslas are. But I do mind when they make up stuff like "Oh, you can go anywhere, and super-chargers are just as convenient as gas stations!"

It's not true yet.


If one were to evaluate buying a model 3 for travels in Yellowstone, it would be better to look at the map on Plugshare for a more comprehensive listing of charging resources.
4nursebee

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just frank
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by just frank » Mon May 07, 2018 4:47 am

Many people who tour Yellowstone do so in a RENTAL vehicle. I rented a Ford Escape with an infernal combustion engine.

I don't think all those European and Japanese people drove there.

Used my LEAF to go the airport, and back, in 2015.

Balefire
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Balefire » Mon May 07, 2018 7:12 am

I have a Tesla Model X and previously owned a Model S.
Needless to say, I'm a big fan boi.

I wouldn't recommend purchasing a Model 3 right now. It is too expensive for a 310 mile version with AWD. There are also issues of quality control for any car within the first several months after production.

A good time to buy the Model 3 would be next year when the affordable 220 mile RWD version is released despite the loss of the federal 7500 rebate.

I imagine there will be an uptick in sales once the affordable version is released

ad2007
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by ad2007 » Mon May 07, 2018 7:39 am

Leif wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 11:13 am
At least for me the charging mostly occurs in my garage over night. Each morning I have a full battery.
Is that advisable? Topping off the charge daily? Thought that was a no no for batteries.

I'm really interested in getting an ev but can't seem to get past the "what if I run out of charge?" Waiting around 45 minutes to get charged up would be a deal breaker. Florida is hot and not very scenic.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by niceguy7376 » Mon May 07, 2018 8:47 am

Balefire wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 7:12 am
A good time to buy the Model 3 would be next year when the affordable 220 mile RWD version is released despite the loss of the federal 7500 rebate.
I got the reservation to configure mine 4 weeks back. One of the discussion topic was:
1. Get 310 miles with extra cost of 9k but gauranteed credit of 7.5K federal OR
2. Wait for the 220 miles range and lose the 7.5K federal credit.

I dont have the NEED for 310 because it will be my daily commute car but is it a "nice to have" for an extra 1.5K (and a bit more on taxes and such)? Definitely.

So I am still undecided and waiting for the 2nd qtr number of deliveries to make my final decision.

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HomerJ
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Mon May 07, 2018 9:03 am

TravelGeek wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 1:43 am
For someone who apparently has no interest in getting an EV or Tesla you spend an aweful lot of time arguing about it :)
True enough :)
And if your idea of a road trip is that a stop of 45 mins after 250-300 miles of driving is too inconvenient, we have very different roadtrip travel styles. 750-900 miles of daily driving with just two 45 min breaks sounds painful to me. I would drive less and also stop more often. I love coffee and thus need potty breaks. And I also get tired and getting out of the vehicle and walking around a bit helps me “wake up”.
You're missing something. You are forced to stop at superchargers on Interstate highways. I'm stopping and stretching my legs at scenic overlooks, or at interesting looking shops in small towns, or restaurants that catch our eye.

You can also stop at those places, but you have to plan around those supercharger locations.

Again, it works. Tesla has done an amazing job rolling out the supercharger locations. But it's still a real limitation.

I don't understand why Tesla people can't admit that. They cannot stand any criticism of their car at all. But the truth is EVs are more limited than gas cars right now. Especially when traveling the back roads of America.

But that's just right now. Maybe someday soon they won't be.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon May 07, 2018 9:21 am

They cannot stand any criticism of their car at all. But the truth is EVs are more limited than gas cars right now.
EVs are limited in different ways than ICE vehicles. My wife prefers the ICE limitations; I prefer the EV limitations.

Btw, I can stand criticism of my car. In fact, I sometimes criticize it myself. It’s just when the rabidly anti-EV jump on any negative aspect of EV that I don’t want to add to the bonfire.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 07, 2018 10:05 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 9:03 am
You're missing something. You are forced to stop at superchargers on Interstate highways. I'm stopping and stretching my legs at scenic overlooks, or at interesting looking shops in small towns, or restaurants that catch our eye.

You can also stop at those places, but you have to plan around those supercharger locations.
Sure, that sounds more like my leisurely travel style. I have friends that drive long distances because they hate flying. They tend to follow major interstate routes. I like road trips where I get to see/explore stuff. In that case I’d probably need at most one supercharger per day if my EV had a 300 mile range. For example, my town is scenic, has nice restaurants, a supercharger, but no interstate anywhere. Even a destination or level 2 charger might suffice. As I recall, the visitor center at a nearby national park has some.

Play with the PlugShare app if you are interested in this topic.
Again, it works. Tesla has done an amazing job rolling out the supercharger locations. But it's still a real limitation.

I don't understand why Tesla people can't admit that. They cannot stand any criticism of their car at all. But the truth is EVs are more limited than gas cars right now. Especially when traveling the back roads of America.
If that is a significant use case for you, I would agree. For many it isn’t. And limitations really only matter if they apply to you.

A final thought: if you think EVs are the right direction and just not yet for you, be grateful they work for others or others are willing to make compromises. Without early adopters it wouldn’t really be possible to make the transition. I personally believe I bought my last ICE vehicle ever three years ago. And my first EV yesterday :beer

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HomerJ
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by HomerJ » Mon May 07, 2018 10:15 am

What do you guys think about the newer hybrids that are purely electric cars, but has a gas tank that is used purely to run a generator to recharge the battery when you get low?

No gas engine. Still has all the simplicity of an all-electric vehicle. Basically, you just have a built-in generator.

That seems like a perfect solution to me, instead of trying to build out superchargers everywhere. All electric 90% of the time when you are commuting, but still can go on long trips without planning around supercharger locations.

How many slots do superchargers have? I mean, many of the those cities on the map have ONE supercharger with like 8 slots, right?

You can look at the map and see, wow Tesla has really done a good job with getting a supercharger in many cities. But that's just ONE super-charger with 8 slots every 200 miles out in the Midwest and Western states.

While those same cities have dozens of gas stations, and every 20-30 miles between the cities you can find several more gas stations in small towns.

To support 5 million Teslas on the road someday is going to require a lot more superchargers.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Mon May 07, 2018 10:20 am

niceguy7376 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 8:47 am
Balefire wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 7:12 am
A good time to buy the Model 3 would be next year when the affordable 220 mile RWD version is released despite the loss of the federal 7500 rebate.
I got the reservation to configure mine 4 weeks back. One of the discussion topic was:
1. Get 310 miles with extra cost of 9k but gauranteed credit of 7.5K federal OR
2. Wait for the 220 miles range and lose the 7.5K federal credit.

I dont have the NEED for 310 because it will be my daily commute car but is it a "nice to have" for an extra 1.5K (and a bit more on taxes and such)? Definitely.

So I am still undecided and waiting for the 2nd qtr number of deliveries to make my final decision.
Just a heads up that when you look for Q2 number of deliveries, you should be on the lookout for whether global deliveries is a lot higher than US deliveries. There is a good chance that Tesla May send Q2 (May/June) cars to Canada or other world markets for May/June in order to push the delivery of the 200,000th car in the US to July 1.

This will make US deliveries in Q2 look uninspiring. But if done this way, starting July they ship 5k / week. And then US buyers get the max credit for all of Q3 and Q4. This would be ideal if they can do this. Just don’t expect a blow out Q2 (in the US).

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 07, 2018 10:36 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 10:15 am
What do you guys think about the newer hybrids that are purely electric cars, but has a gas tank that is used purely to run a generator to recharge the battery when you get low?

No gas engine. Still has all the simplicity of an all-electric vehicle. Basically, you just have a built-in generator.

That seems like a perfect solution to me, instead of trying to build out superchargers everywhere. All electric 90% of the time when you are commuting, but still can go on long trips without planning around supercharger locations.
If we didn’t already have a fairly new low mileage comfortable ICE vehicle for road trips, we might have gone with a Volt instead of a 2018 LEAF as our only vehicle for both local EV driving and roadtrips. Or a new plugin Prius, So yes, I think they are a good solution for some (many :P )
How many slots do superchargers have? I mean, many of the those cities on the map have ONE supercharger with like 8 slots, right?

You can look at the map and see, wow Tesla has really done a good job with getting a supercharger in many cities. But that's just ONE super-charger with 8 slots every 200 miles out in the Midwest and Western states.

While those same cities have dozens of gas stations, and every 20-30 miles between the cities you can find several more gas stations in small towns.

To support 5 million Teslas on the road someday is going to require a lot more superchargers.
Yes, they will definitely have to scale the network. Breadth and depth. As EVs become more popular, some of those gas stations would seem like perfect locations for EV chargers because if demand for fossil fuels goes down, there may very well be too many gas stations competing for customers. Obviously it will take a while, especially in more rural areas where the F150 is probably the most popular vehicle :)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Mon May 07, 2018 10:43 am

HomerJ wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 10:15 am
What do you guys think about the newer hybrids that are purely electric cars, but has a gas tank that is used purely to run a generator to recharge the battery when you get low?

No gas engine. Still has all the simplicity of an all-electric vehicle. Basically, you just have a built-in generator.

That seems like a perfect solution to me, instead of trying to build out superchargers everywhere. All electric 90% of the time when you are commuting, but still can go on long trips without planning around supercharger locations.

How many slots do superchargers have? I mean, many of the those cities on the map have ONE supercharger with like 8 slots, right?

You can look at the map and see, wow Tesla has really done a good job with getting a supercharger in many cities. But that's just ONE super-charger with 8 slots every 200 miles out in the Midwest and Western states.

While those same cities have dozens of gas stations, and every 20-30 miles between the cities you can find several more gas stations in small towns.

To support 5 million Teslas on the road someday is going to require a lot more superchargers.
I’m not sure what newer hybrids you are talking about other than perhaps the Honda Clarity. What you are describing is the BMW i3 which I own. Perfect for my needs and used ones with under 20,000 miles can be had for under $20k. I get roughly 75 miles on a charge and 80 miles more using the gas generator. I live in a major city so never use the gas other than to keep the engine in shape. Basically it allows me the option of driving further and I can keep refueling (which takes like a minute) and drive anywhere I like. Perfect compromise.

The i3 isn’t a good value to buy new but a great used value IMO. However, with battery advances I think these types of designs will not be around much longer. Bolt, Model 3, Niro, etc. will kill it. Interestingly (and annoying), BMW has a modular battery design and in other markets they sell a battery upgrade for older i3s. They don’t do that in the US yet. I’m hoping they offer it in another year or so.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon May 07, 2018 11:24 am

How many slots do superchargers have? I mean, many of the those cities on the map have ONE supercharger with like 8 slots, right?
The "old school" Superchargers usually had 6 or 8 stalls (slots), but the new ones seem to have 14 or more. I haven't seen any new Supercharger locations with fewer than 14 stalls.
...[the average stalls per station] is expected to increase significantly before the end of the year as Tesla is currently building several stations with 20 or more stalls, even a few with 40 to 50 stalls as previously mentioned.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Mon May 07, 2018 11:59 am

Sorry for the off topic remark but MANY MANY thanks to the person who mentioned "Shoe Dog" book. It is fascinating.

When I make it big, I am going to use the same ghost writer to write my autobiography :-)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 4nursebee » Mon May 07, 2018 12:28 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 11:59 am
Sorry for the off topic remark but MANY MANY thanks to the person who mentioned "Shoe Dog" book. It is fascinating.

When I make it big, I am going to use the same ghost writer to write my autobiography :-)
Foolstreet did that and I AGREEE :beer
Tough to be a tesla bull and ignore that book as confirmation.
4nursebee

mervinj7
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by mervinj7 » Mon May 07, 2018 12:54 pm

matjen wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 10:43 am

I’m not sure what newer hybrids you are talking about other than perhaps the Honda Clarity. What you are describing is the BMW i3 which I own. Perfect for my needs and used ones with under 20,000 miles can be had for under $20k. I get roughly 75 miles on a charge and 80 miles more using the gas generator. I live in a major city so never use the gas other than to keep the engine in shape. Basically it allows me the option of driving further and I can keep refueling (which takes like a minute) and drive anywhere I like. Perfect compromise.

The i3 isn’t a good value to buy new but a great used value IMO. However, with battery advances I think these types of designs will not be around much longer. Bolt, Model 3, Niro, etc. will kill it. Interestingly (and annoying), BMW has a modular battery design and in other markets they sell a battery upgrade for older i3s. They don’t do that in the US yet. I’m hoping they offer it in another year or so.
Interestingly enough, we are consider getting a new BMW i3 due to the latest PG&E incentives. California PG&E customers get $20,500 off the dealers best price. This includes a $10k PG&E discount, $7.5K fed tax credit, $2.5K from CA state rebate, and $500 from PG&E Clean Fuel rebate. The $45k model the dealer quoted us is then only $24.5K after incentives. That's not much more than 3 year old used one or a new 2018 Nissan Leaf (our original first choice).

https://electrek.co/2018/03/01/californ ... -to-24000/

Do you have any experience using the i3 with kids and car seats? That's our biggest concern at this point.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 07, 2018 1:01 pm

mervinj7 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 12:54 pm
Interestingly enough, we are consider getting a new BMW i3 due to the latest PG&E incentives. California PG&E customers get $20,500 off the dealers best price. This includes a $10k PG&E discount, $7.5K fed tax credit, $2.5K from CA state rebate, and $500 from PG&E Clean Fuel rebate. The $45k model the dealer quoted us is then only $24.5K after incentives. That's not much more than 3 year old used one or a new 2018 Nissan Leaf (our original first choice).
That sounds like a great deal, and I was wondering why/how PG&E can afford to throw $10k at buyers.

Turns out they don't. It's a discount offered by BMW to customers in a particular geography (PG&E country).
Also of note: This isn’t the electric companies throwing the money around, just like with last year’s Nissan Leaf rebates, the manufacturer, in this case BMW, is paying for the rebates, likely to clear inventory ahead of new vehicle releases.
If I hadn't just bought a 2018 LEAF, I might have to seriously consider moving in with family in CA :P

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Mon May 07, 2018 1:06 pm

mervinj7 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 12:54 pm
matjen wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 10:43 am

I’m not sure what newer hybrids you are talking about other than perhaps the Honda Clarity. What you are describing is the BMW i3 which I own. Perfect for my needs and used ones with under 20,000 miles can be had for under $20k. I get roughly 75 miles on a charge and 80 miles more using the gas generator. I live in a major city so never use the gas other than to keep the engine in shape. Basically it allows me the option of driving further and I can keep refueling (which takes like a minute) and drive anywhere I like. Perfect compromise.

The i3 isn’t a good value to buy new but a great used value IMO. However, with battery advances I think these types of designs will not be around much longer. Bolt, Model 3, Niro, etc. will kill it. Interestingly (and annoying), BMW has a modular battery design and in other markets they sell a battery upgrade for older i3s. They don’t do that in the US yet. I’m hoping they offer it in another year or so.
Interestingly enough, we are consider getting a new BMW i3 due to the latest PG&E incentives. California PG&E customers get $20,500 off the dealers best price. This includes a $10k PG&E discount, $7.5K fed tax credit, $2.5K from CA state rebate, and $500 from PG&E Clean Fuel rebate. The $45k model the dealer quoted us is then only $24.5K after incentives. That's not much more than 3 year old used one or a new 2018 Nissan Leaf (our original first choice).

https://electrek.co/2018/03/01/californ ... -to-24000/

Do you have any experience using the i3 with kids and car seats? That's our biggest concern at this point.
I just want to point out that the PG&E "discount" is really not coming from PG&E. BMW is saying, "we will give an extra $10k off to PG&E customers" which is very, very different. Essentially, BMW is targeting incentives to SF Bay Area & the tech savvy customers here. I may be splitting hairs, but I would also be up in arms if PG&E gave the discount to BMW buyers but not to anyone else.]

Anecdotally, I've heard that the suicide doors are a pain. Wife won't consider the i3 because of them. I've sat in the back and its tight, but probably ok for kids. Also, the highway stability has been improved in 2018, but was not considered comparable to BMW suspension expectations in previous years. I was thinking of getting one in Dec last year (sub $200/mo lease), so I'm not negative to them. Cool cars.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Balefire » Mon May 07, 2018 1:08 pm

mervinj7 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 12:54 pm

Do you have any experience using the i3 with kids and car seats? That's our biggest concern at this point.
The early i3 had difficulty with maintaining speeds on mountains. Make sure you do a thorough test drive with a full car on a hill before committing. My wife hated the interior too, but I didn't mind it.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by mervinj7 » Mon May 07, 2018 1:09 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 1:01 pm
That sounds like a great deal, and I was wondering why/how PG&E can afford to throw $10k at buyers.

Turns out they don't. It's a discount offered by BMW to customers in a particular geography (PG&E country).

If I hadn't just bought a 2018 LEAF, I might have to seriously consider moving in with family in CA :P
Yes, I mentioned its a discount for PG&E customers. The only rebate PG&E directly throws in is $500 but that's for any EV.

How you do you like your 2018 Leaf? It seems far more family friendly than the i3.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 07, 2018 1:32 pm

mervinj7 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 1:09 pm
How you do you like your 2018 Leaf? It seems far more family friendly than the i3.
I haven't taken delivery yet; signed the paperwork yesterday and test drove the actual vehicle I bought (first driver; had 8 miles after my test drive). I had also driven one before for about an hour in December. I think it's a nice vehicle (it reminds me of the Prius, with improvements of course, that I am trading in), and yes, I wouldn't want to have an i3 if I regularly had to transport kids/people in the back seat. Cute little city car for 1 or 2 people, though. I never considered the i3 because of the price.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Mon May 07, 2018 2:32 pm

ad2007 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 7:39 am
Leif wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 11:13 am
At least for me the charging mostly occurs in my garage over night. Each morning I have a full battery.
Is that advisable? Topping off the charge daily? Thought that was a no no for batteries.

I'm really interested in getting an ev but can't seem to get past the "what if I run out of charge?" Waiting around 45 minutes to get charged up would be a deal breaker. Florida is hot and not very scenic.
I don't charge every night. However, Tesla does recommend that you keep it plugged in when not in use. "A plugged in Tesla is a happy Tesla". The advice is to charge to 90% unless you are planning a trip in which case charging to 100%, on occasion, if fine.
Last edited by Leif on Mon May 07, 2018 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Mon May 07, 2018 2:36 pm

Leif wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 2:32 pm
I don't charge every night. However, Tesla does recommend that you keep it plugged in when not in use. "A plugged in Tesla is a happy Tesla".
Surely a car that has some auto pilot abilities can also optimize its own charging, perhaps using ML to learn the owner's driving patterns ;)

Seriously, though (and I say that without knowing what Tesla's computer actually does), as a newly baked EV owner this is probably something I need to read up on. I suspect my Nissan won't be as smart as your Tesla.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Mon May 07, 2018 2:43 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Sun May 06, 2018 11:45 pm
EVs are limited. They do fill the needs for many many people. But not everyone. Gas cars are less limited.

It's really that simple. Tesla is not a general "road-trip" car. No EV is yet. Maybe someday. Not yet.
I don't make many road trips. But, I've read others do it often in a Tesla. They seem to be happy with the Tesla. If you make road trips often to remote locations, or want to make trips with few stops, then perhaps an EV is not for you.

For me 99% of my trips are < 250 miles. For the other 1% I can use superchargers. If no nearby superchargers I can (and have) used destination chargers at the hotel to charge overnight, giving me a full battery in the morning.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Mon May 07, 2018 3:23 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 1:32 pm
mervinj7 wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 1:09 pm
How you do you like your 2018 Leaf? It seems far more family friendly than the i3.
I haven't taken delivery yet; signed the paperwork yesterday and test drove the actual vehicle I bought (first driver; had 8 miles after my test drive). I had also driven one before for about an hour in December. I think it's a nice vehicle (it reminds me of the Prius, with improvements of course, that I am trading in), and yes, I wouldn't want to have an i3 if I regularly had to transport kids/people in the back seat. Cute little city car for 1 or 2 people, though. I never considered the i3 because of the price.
Agreed. A new Leaf would be a better option if you had kids. i3 is an amazing City car for two.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by 4nursebee » Mon May 07, 2018 3:42 pm

My guess is Elon thinks the model 3 will [continue to] succeed, he bought 33,000 shares today. He has always said he would be the last to sell.
4nursebee

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by balofagus » Tue May 08, 2018 1:24 am

I just finished up a 2300km roundtrip (San Jose, Tahoe, Death Valley, Las Vegas, out to the coast and back up) in mine with a couple of friends visiting. 390 kWh used for the trip; about six “tanks”, I think?

Standout bits: up by Cachuma Lake instead of the coast at Santa Barbara, the gravel track in to a trailhead at Death Valley, and in to Big Sur the scenic route.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by DanMahowny » Tue May 08, 2018 7:24 am

4nursebee wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 3:42 pm
My guess is Elon thinks the model 3 will [continue to] succeed, he bought 33,000 shares today. He has always said he would be the last to sell.
He should've shorted the stock.
Funding secured

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Fri May 11, 2018 4:37 pm

4nursebee wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 3:42 pm
My guess is Elon thinks the model 3 will [continue to] succeed, he bought 33,000 shares today. He has always said he would be the last to sell.
Well there has been some analysis done on his recent 10 mil buy. Turns out he tweeted out some nonsense about massive short squeeze coming and then made these buys premarket when the market was incredibly thin. Seems kind of clear his goal wasn't to "invest" but, rather, to move the price and get some momentum. He purposely paid more.

His actions whether via Twitter or the earnings call or in the markets don't really suggest a confident operational leader. The opposite IMO. Which leads me back to my worry about the company not being on strong footing and not wise to have one's second largest purchase (usually)be of a car from a shaky company.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri May 11, 2018 5:41 pm

matjen wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 4:37 pm
4nursebee wrote:
Mon May 07, 2018 3:42 pm
My guess is Elon thinks the model 3 will [continue to] succeed, he bought 33,000 shares today. He has always said he would be the last to sell.
Well there has been some analysis done on his recent 10 mil buy. Turns out he tweeted out some nonsense about massive short squeeze coming and then made these buys premarket when the market was incredibly thin. Seems kind of clear his goal wasn't to "invest" but, rather, to move the price and get some momentum. He purposely paid more.

His actions whether via Twitter or the earnings call or in the markets don't really suggest a confident operational leader. The opposite IMO. Which leads me back to my worry about the company not being on strong footing and not wise to have one's second largest purchase (usually)be of a car from a shaky company.
Dan, Matjen, I love this thread, so I hope that the moderators don't close it. I want to focus on the Bogle-headed dilema of whether or not to pay so darn much for the car. I'm worried if we spend too much talking about TSLA the stock, the thread will get nailed. Sometimes, TSLA stock is relevant, since many shorts feel like TSLA will go bankrupt before long, so sometimes we talk about whether that is a legit likelihood that as part of the discussion... but too much discussion about "momentum" might get worrisome.

News today: Elon tweets that AWD specs will be announced end of next week, and that he will start taking orders for AWD in July. Since about 1/3 of the deferrals are for AWD, this is very exciting. And it is timed to coincide with a 5k/week production rate, so should be great for those on the wait list. Also, he hinted strongly at white interior. It should be noted that many say RWD with snow tires is just as capable, if not more, than AWD with all-seasons, when in the snow. I'm in California, so not as close to those issues. I expected a slow May as the line gets tested to get up to 5k/week, plus tested for the intro of AWD, etc. Air suspension is targeted for 2019, which I *think* is fine for budget conscious buyers as it gives Tesla more time to make sure air suspension is rock solid.

If Tesla can ship all June AWD cars to Canada, that could, maybe, perhaps, push the 200,000th US delivered car to July, which extends the 7500 credit available all through Q3 and Q4. Should be a very busy 4th of July weekend and a December to rememb.. to enjoy ;-)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by matjen » Fri May 11, 2018 6:30 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 5:41 pm
I want to focus on the Bogle-headed dilema of whether or not to pay so darn much for the car.
News today: Elon tweets that AWD specs will be announced end of next week, and that he will start taking orders for AWD in July. Since about 1/3 of the deferrals are for AWD, this is very exciting.

The second paragraph sorta kinda absolutely makes the issue raised in the first paragraph worse! Face it, they can't make a 35k car profitably so they aren't even trying. They are going the wrong way. So all yooose guyz who gave them money in advance for your mass market car...take a hike.

P.S. Latest news today is that Head of Engineering Doug Field is "taking a break" from Tesla.
Last edited by matjen on Fri May 11, 2018 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri May 11, 2018 6:51 pm

matjen wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:30 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 5:41 pm
I want to focus on the Bogle-headed dilema of whether or not to pay so darn much for the car.
News today: Elon tweets that AWD specs will be announced end of next week, and that he will start taking orders for AWD in July. Since about 1/3 of the deferrals are for AWD, this is very exciting.


The second paragraph sorta kinda absolutely makes the issue raised in the first paragraph worse! Face it, they can't make a 35k car profitably so they aren't even trying. They are going the wrong way. So all yooose guyz who gave them money in advance for your mass market car...take a hike.

P.S. Latest news today is that Head of Engineering Doug Field is "taking a break" from Tesla.
You raise a relevant point because I think there are Bogleheads who wanted the Telsa Short Range (Neilpilot and Travelgeek), but couldn't wait until early 2019 to get it and needed to buy an alternative EV sooner.

My gut says that they will start building the AWD and Short Range at the same time. My assumption is that if the Short Range decreases per unit margins, it will be balanced by increased margins on the AWD, such that they continue to manage blended margins. That's my gut, but I haven't really studied their financials.

I don't know what to say about Doug Field. Some people simply do need breaks when running so hard for so long. Often times, people take breaks after they've achieved major milestones. Who knows.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by emoore » Fri May 11, 2018 7:06 pm

There’s a comment from Elon saying awd ordering will start next week. No word on standard range version.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri May 11, 2018 7:22 pm

emoore wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:06 pm
There’s a comment from Elon saying awd ordering will start next week. No word on standard range version.
True. I checked the delivery estimator and they seem to think SR will see deliveries starting in September. I assume that employees would get them early, say August. Admittedly, this is all crystal balls and tea leaves, but you are right, Elon didn't comment on SR with his AWD announcements today.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Fri May 11, 2018 7:46 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:51 pm
You raise a relevant point because I think there are Bogleheads who wanted the Telsa Short Range (Neilpilot and Travelgeek), but couldn't wait until early 2019 to get it and needed to buy an alternative EV sooner.

...
I don't know what to say about Doug Field. Some people simply do need breaks when running so hard for so long. Often times, people take breaks after they've achieved major milestones. Who knows.
Maybe his delivery date came up and he is taking his new Model 3 on an extended summer vacation ;)

And yes, I wanted the el-cheapo-ish version, with tax credits. I just checked my estimated delivery dates again:

First Production: May-July
AWD: Late 2018
El Cheapo: early 2019

(on an amusing side note, the Tesla site shows me a picture of the Model 3 in the same color I chose for my 2018 LEAF)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by FoolStreet » Fri May 11, 2018 7:49 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:46 pm
FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 6:51 pm
You raise a relevant point because I think there are Bogleheads who wanted the Telsa Short Range (Neilpilot and Travelgeek), but couldn't wait until early 2019 to get it and needed to buy an alternative EV sooner.

...
I don't know what to say about Doug Field. Some people simply do need breaks when running so hard for so long. Often times, people take breaks after they've achieved major milestones. Who knows.
Maybe his delivery date came up and he is taking his new Model 3 on an extended summer vacation ;)

And yes, I wanted the el-cheapo-ish version, with tax credits. I just checked my estimated delivery dates again:

First Production: May-July
AWD: Late 2018
El Cheapo: early 2019

(on an amusing side note, the Tesla site shows me a picture of the Model 3 in the same color I chose for my 2018 LEAF)
By the way, congrats on the new LEAF! How do you like it? I don't remember if you commented upthread on which one you bought (SV, SL or S), and pricing?

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Fri May 11, 2018 10:21 pm

FoolStreet wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 7:49 pm
By the way, congrats on the new LEAF! How do you like it? I don't remember if you commented upthread on which one you bought (SV, SL or S), and pricing?
Thanks! We got the SL, for about $34k. It had exactly the configuration I wanted, with one of the two color choices my wife liked (I had a few more).

72 month loan for 0% APR. We will get $7500 fed tax credit and hopefully $2500 back from the state of Oregon. And a free GoPro Hero 6 from Nissan unless I forget to claim my early pre-order gift on Monday :)

Our solar panels should produce about 5000-8000 miles of free travel per year (of course, we paid for the panels).

So far we are very happy with it. Feels like what the next generation Prius should have been. Not a Tesla for sure, but it works for us. And as I sort-of joked above, there is always the Model Y coming up. Maybe a replacement for our Forester.

One of these weekends we’ll have to take it on a road trip to try out the charging networks. I suspect overall most of our “gas” will be home-made, though.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Sat May 12, 2018 6:58 am

My spouse is not a car person and is not a big consumer or spender in general. However, she finds the looks of the Teslas very sexy and put down a deposit for a Model 3 the first day that was possible.

She has configured her car, has received its VIN, and is looking forward to delivery in about three weeks. Our family has reached a point where we can afford to drive luxury cars, and I’m thrilled that my spouse will pamper herself. So, our family will be taking delivery of the Model 3 and we aren’t agonizing about the decision — jumping in to the world of EVs will be an adventure we’ll learn from and hopefully relish.

Andy.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by wrongfunds » Sat May 12, 2018 8:43 am

I am OP here and still agonizing over the decision.

I just got the quote to install home charger. It is over $2K!

Now the devil inside me is saying, for that $2K differential, I am suspecting that I would be able to fuel MB S550 for 40K miles? I could probably pick up nice CPO for under $50K which would be equivalent M3 price after the incentives.

But in the end, that S550 still will NOT have the cachet of M3. For somebody who drives 1999 cars daily and to friend's parties, arriving in an M3 will be an event, that S550 will just blend in with other Lexi and MBs there.

You guys know I am somewhat kidding about the last part. Somebody who is worried about what other people think of us would not be driving 225K mile vehicles and showing all those miles right on the body of the vehicles :-)

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by TravelGeek » Sat May 12, 2018 11:05 am

wrongfunds wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 8:43 am
I am OP here and still agonizing over the decision.

I just got the quote to install home charger. It is over $2K!

Now the devil inside me is saying, for that $2K differential, I am suspecting that I would be able to fuel MB S550 for 40K miles? I could probably pick up nice CPO for under $50K which would be equivalent M3 price after the incentives.
Ouch! I had the builder put a 240V line into the garage four years ago when our new home was built. When I got an electrician out to install the actual outlet (*) a few weeks ago, it was a 10 min job since everything was there, incl. separate breakers in the electrical panel.

The way I would look at the $2k is: do you believe that EVs are the future for you? Our 2016 Forester will last us for a while, but I am convinced it will be the last ICE vehicle we will own. And the LEAF is just the first EV. So I would look at the $2k cost as a one-time investment useful for several generations of vehicles.

Of course, maybe in 10 years we actually won’t own any vehicles anymore and just summon a Waymo pod vehicle when we want to go shopping. Oh, wait, no, there won’t be stores anymore; everything is going to be delivered from warehouses. Or 3D-printed at home. :)

(*) at first I was surprised that the original electrician didn’t just install an outlet, but turns out there are several different types, and different EVSE’s plug into different outlets. And back then I think it was very common to hardware them. I now have a NEMA 14-50 outlet, which works with the portable ESVE that came with the LEAF.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by Leif » Sat May 12, 2018 12:58 pm

wrongfunds wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 8:43 am
I am OP here and still agonizing over the decision.

I just got the quote to install home charger. It is over $2K!
Seems really high. I paid $400. However, my charger is just inside the garage from the meter, so installation was relatively simple. I'm using my Tesla provided mobile charger (called UMC). It is possible that if charger is a long distance from the meter, involving a lot or work routing 50 amp wiring, the price is justified. Get additional quotes.

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Re: To take or not to take delivery of Tesla 3

Post by PhilosophyAndrew » Sat May 12, 2018 1:24 pm

Our quote was about $900 to install a NEMA 14-50 outlet and circuit. A Tesla wall charger would have provided a faster charge, but also would have required adding a sub-panel to our electrical system. The wall charger hardware itself costs $500.

We have a whole-house generator and are paying $600 for a relay that will automatically shut the Nema outlet off when we lose utility power — this prevents the generator from possibly overloading if the Tesla is charging when switching over to generator power. There will also be an override switch in the garage so we can charge the Tesla using generator power if necessary.

Andy.

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