When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

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soupcxan
Posts: 154
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 8:54 am

When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby soupcxan » Fri May 19, 2017 9:28 pm

A new stainless Rolex Submariner date is $8,550 (MSRP). Obviously the market for that watch is significantly different than someone buying a $500 Apple Watch but between smart watches and people wearing no watch at all anymore, demand for luxury watches must be down. When will lower demand be reflected in the used market for a watch like this? Is it already priced in? Obviously they're not going to give them away, but maybe a used watch that was $6k a few years ago is now $4k?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -crackdown

Jane
Posts: 15
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2007 3:09 am

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby Jane » Sat May 20, 2017 12:06 am

There is a wonderful article in the 3/15/2017 issue of The New Yorker magazine called Confessions of a Watch Geek by Gary Shteyngart that you might want to read.

Nova1967
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri May 27, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby Nova1967 » Sat May 20, 2017 9:18 am

I negotiated the purchase of a Gold Rolex Presedential for 10.5K in 2005, I realized the watch was a little tight so I returned to the shop, An extra link for the band was around $250, therefore I believe the price is closely linked to the value of Silver and Gold.

randomguy
Posts: 4578
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby randomguy » Sat May 20, 2017 11:37 am

When the generations that grew up thinking watches are status items. These are not time pieces like i watches and the like. They are jewelry.

frequentflyer
Posts: 4
Joined: Sun May 07, 2017 11:59 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby frequentflyer » Sat May 20, 2017 11:44 am

The desirable models don't really go down especially if you don't pay full retail initially. I've have numerous Rolex's over the years and have never lost anything when selling or trading for another model.

I spend a bit of time over on rolexforums.com and there really can be some great deals from great sellers.

I'd say that the full gold models pretty much track inflation as do the gold/steel models and some of the stainless steel models can go up quite a bit.

adamthesmythe
Posts: 1444
Joined: Mon Sep 22, 2014 4:47 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby adamthesmythe » Sat May 20, 2017 7:06 pm

No one buys a Rolex to know what time it is.

Prices should depend greatly on how many people have more $ than they know what to do with. So they should rise with the market, drop when the market crashes.

PeterWander8
Posts: 16
Joined: Mon May 22, 2017 9:59 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby PeterWander8 » Tue May 23, 2017 10:09 pm

Your best bet is if Apple launch a 5-10k apple watch. The same way they kind of trashed Swatch's market with the current offering, IMHO.

TareNeko
Posts: 512
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2013 1:27 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby TareNeko » Tue May 23, 2017 11:01 pm

Don't buy Rolex. They heavily advertise their product, and you're paying for that. Also, there's un-logical hype around it. Again, you'll pay for it. There are so many great watches that you can buy second hand for good prices. Look for JLC, IWC, Omega etc.

hilink73
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:29 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby hilink73 » Wed May 24, 2017 12:02 am

TareNeko wrote:Don't buy Rolex. They heavily advertise their product, and you're paying for that. Also, there's un-logical hype around it. Again, you'll pay for it. There are so many great watches that you can buy second hand for good prices. Look for JLC, IWC, Omega etc.



Still, Rolex are legend and very nice watches.

dbphd
Posts: 126
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 1:07 pm
Location: Montecito, CA

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby dbphd » Wed May 24, 2017 12:21 am

I've had a Rolex since I graduated college almost 60 years ago, because they took a licking and kept on ticking, whereas in my usage at the time Timex didn't. My stainless steel with gold bezel was lost in shipment. Insurance plus a good bit of cash bought the gold date/day President with bark band I've worn for decades. Who cares whether the value goes up or down if it keeps on ticking?

db

afan
Posts: 2717
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:01 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby afan » Wed May 24, 2017 8:46 am

Like other luxury items, the price depends on the economy. When there is another recession the prices will decrease. If you become expert enough in the field you can try to fund underpriced watches that you can flip for profit. I suspect that is a lot more difficult than it was before the internet.

You can look on watch forums to get detailed ideas about the price behavior of specific models. Many watch snobs look down on Rolex, not considering it to be an elite brand. Again, watch sites can give you their thinking. If this is for personal use you can get comparable appearance and durability for less money from other brands.
We don't know how to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis, and we don't know anyone that does know either | --Swedroe | We assume that markets are efficient, that prices are right | --Fama

mak1277
Posts: 343
Joined: Fri Jan 09, 2015 4:26 pm

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby mak1277 » Wed May 24, 2017 8:51 am

afan wrote:You can look on watch forums to get detailed ideas about the price behavior of specific models. Many watch snobs look down on Rolex, not considering it to be an elite brand. Again, watch sites can give you their thinking. If this is for personal use you can get comparable appearance and durability for less money from other brands.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackforste ... c8616e216c

I just read the above article this morning...it's appropriate.

Workaholic
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 6:55 am

Re: When will used Rolex prices decline significantly?

Postby Workaholic » Thu May 25, 2017 1:37 pm

A stainless steel Rolex Submariner isn't going to lose much value (if any) if bought well and maintained. I have a Rolex Submariner no-date (ref 114060) which stickers for $7500 but was also to negotiate a 10% discount ($6700) and they shipped it out-of-state to my home which saved me another $600 on sales tax. I see a lot of used Sub no-date's listed for between $5500-$6000 and once Rolex raises their list prices, I'm betting that the used price of a Sub will have a floor of appx. $6000-$6200. There just aren't any other watches that maintain this type of value.

If you go for the 5-digit references (pre 2010 or so), you can find a gently used Rolex Submariner for around $5000. There aren't many Rolex Sub's that are in the lower $4k price range though unless they're well-worn and/or missing the box/papers which almost everyone wants when buying such an expensive item.

I'd personally bite the bullet and get a 6-digit reference because of the upgraded bracelet and the ceramic bezel. If you compare the two bracelets side-by-side, the 6 digit feels much sturdier and heftier than the hollow 5 digit ones. In fact I think the 5 digit feels almost cheap...but if you want lighter weight it might fit you well.

My $0.02


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