Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

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harikaried
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by harikaried » Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:31 am

According to Elon Musk, the first production Model 3 will be completed this week building up to a 30-customer-handover party this month:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/881755501905588226

His projected rate is 30+ in July, 100 in August, 1500+ in September, and 20,000 in December.

If you fit with an exponential curve, the total production for this year looks to be around 40,000 Model 3s -- roughly 10% of the initial reservation backlog.

This all seems to match up with what Tesla has previously said (in their 2017 Q1 update), and they expect to ramp up from 5k/week in 2017 to 10k/week in 2018, so if we assume a linear improvement during 2018 instead of exponential, that's about 360,000 Model 3s in 2018. Or if they only maintain their December rate throughout 2018, that's 240,000.

In any case, people wanting to order a Model 3 today will likely still need to wait a while before getting delivery. Although if you become a Tesla employee or buy a Model S or X and live in/near California, it sounds like you'll get delivery a bit sooner.

As to compare against the other vehicle in this discussion, deliveries for the Chevy Bolt so far:
Dec16: 579
Jan17: 1162
Feb17: 952
Mar17: 978
Apr17: 1292
May17: 1566
Jun17: 1642
https://electrek.co/2017/07/03/gm-chevy ... v-sales-3/

InvestNewbie
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by InvestNewbie » Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:30 pm

I am contemplating getting a Chevy Bolt Premier as we're looking for a second vehicle right now. The role of this car would be a daily driver, grocery trips, etc. with primarily around town stop-and-go traffic. The most the car would be driven in a single day would be about 90 miles and that would be unusual. Mostly the distance driven in a day would be around 30 miles but I like that this car behaves much more like a gas powered car than something where one even needs to stop and think about "range anxiety". There's no place to charge in between the time I leave the house to the time I return as the parking lots at work and at the various places I would stop don't have EV charging stations. As I understand it, I should not need to worry about charging the car until I get back home, but does this include running the heater, radio, etc. for the entire duration in the middle of a Massachusetts winter?

For people or object moving, longer day trips or car holidays we have a full-sized SUV (2014 Porsche Caynne) so I'm far less concerned about the charging network which seems to be one of the main benefits of Tesla vs. Bolt. I would not plan to take the Bolt on long trips, it's just a bit too cramped after using the full-sized SUV to do the same. The eventual (hopefully 5+ year) plan will be replace the current SUV with a similar full-sized SUV (or minivan) that's hybrid gas/electric. I would not plan to go all electric until charging is as boring and ubiquitous as gas stations.

I would lease the Bolt as I would hope that battery and EV technology would evolve substantially enough by the end of the 36 month lease that getting a new vehicle at that point in time would represent a substantial improvement in technology. Plus this way if I hate the car I'm only stuck with it for 3 years and can drive the SUV which I love driving. And since this is the first year that the Bolt is offered it's likely substantial improvements will be forthcoming in the next few years regardless.

Most importantly the Bolt is available now and I could drive one off the lot tomorrow vs. if I tried to get a Tesla 3 I'd be waiting until next year at least.

Thoughts?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by H-Town » Wed Jul 05, 2017 12:58 pm

InvestNewbie wrote:I am contemplating getting a Chevy Bolt Premier as we're looking for a second vehicle right now. The role of this car would be a daily driver, grocery trips, etc. with primarily around town stop-and-go traffic. The most the car would be driven in a single day would be about 90 miles and that would be unusual. Mostly the distance driven in a day would be around 30 miles but I like that this car behaves much more like a gas powered car than something where one even needs to stop and think about "range anxiety". There's no place to charge in between the time I leave the house to the time I return as the parking lots at work and at the various places I would stop don't have EV charging stations. As I understand it, I should not need to worry about charging the car until I get back home, but does this include running the heater, radio, etc. for the entire duration in the middle of a Massachusetts winter?

For people or object moving, longer day trips or car holidays we have a full-sized SUV (2014 Porsche Caynne) so I'm far less concerned about the charging network which seems to be one of the main benefits of Tesla vs. Bolt. I would not plan to take the Bolt on long trips, it's just a bit too cramped after using the full-sized SUV to do the same. The eventual (hopefully 5+ year) plan will be replace the current SUV with a similar full-sized SUV (or minivan) that's hybrid gas/electric. I would not plan to go all electric until charging is as boring and ubiquitous as gas stations.

I would lease the Bolt as I would hope that battery and EV technology would evolve substantially enough by the end of the 36 month lease that getting a new vehicle at that point in time would represent a substantial improvement in technology. Plus this way if I hate the car I'm only stuck with it for 3 years and can drive the SUV which I love driving. And since this is the first year that the Bolt is offered it's likely substantial improvements will be forthcoming in the next few years regardless.

Most importantly the Bolt is available now and I could drive one off the lot tomorrow vs. if I tried to get a Tesla 3 I'd be waiting until next year at least.

Thoughts?
Why don't you use your SUV for daily commute? If you need a second vehicle because there are 2 drivers in your family, I understand you might want to get a second car. If that's the case, why getting an EV? A lease for a new Toyota/Honda/Chevy would be in the range of $200 a month or less. I'm thinking from minimizing cost perspective. If you want a Chevy Bolt Premier and have the money to afford it, go for it.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by InvestNewbie » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:10 pm

thangngo wrote:Why don't you use your SUV for daily commute? If you need a second vehicle because there are 2 drivers in your family, I understand you might want to get a second car. If that's the case, why getting an EV? A lease for a new Toyota/Honda/Chevy would be in the range of $200 a month or less. I'm thinking from minimizing cost perspective. If you want a Chevy Bolt Premier and have the money to afford it, go for it.
Two drivers, absolutely must have a second vehicle as travel patterns don't overlap even remotely.

The EV is because I'd like to be less dependent on gas if at all possible. And for daily stop-and-go city driving it makes a lot of sense to me because I rarely see us getting more than 20 mpg no matter what vehicle we have been driving. Beyond an EV we'd likely go for a compact crossover or mid-sized sedan and wouldn't be limited to any specific manufacturer and we'd end up buying.

squirm
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:15 pm

I doubt there is going to be major changes to the battery in a few years. Maybe Chevy will offer a bigger one, but Musk himself said maybe 5% a year in energy density increases for Tesla, doubt gm has anything more than that.

Can you charge at work?

H-Town
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by H-Town » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:59 pm

InvestNewbie wrote:
thangngo wrote:Why don't you use your SUV for daily commute? If you need a second vehicle because there are 2 drivers in your family, I understand you might want to get a second car. If that's the case, why getting an EV? A lease for a new Toyota/Honda/Chevy would be in the range of $200 a month or less. I'm thinking from minimizing cost perspective. If you want a Chevy Bolt Premier and have the money to afford it, go for it.
Two drivers, absolutely must have a second vehicle as travel patterns don't overlap even remotely.

The EV is because I'd like to be less dependent on gas if at all possible. And for daily stop-and-go city driving it makes a lot of sense to me because I rarely see us getting more than 20 mpg no matter what vehicle we have been driving. Beyond an EV we'd likely go for a compact crossover or mid-sized sedan and wouldn't be limited to any specific manufacturer and we'd end up buying.
I see. I also considered an EV, but the math doesn't work out for my situation. Yours might be different. Right now in Houston, a gallon of gas costs $1.85. In my calculation, gas price would have rise more than $4 a gallon and assuming electricity rate stays the same for five year period for me to get breakeven point.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Thesaints » Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:03 pm

If Tesla should increase cost of maintenance/repairs what could customers do ?

psteinx
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by psteinx » Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:08 pm

FWIW, I recently saw some ads for a local Nissan dealership advertising new (I think) Leafs dirt cheap - $12-14K or so. I assume this price reflected any applicable federal tax credits, but I didn't dig too deep. My state (Missouri) does not, AFAIK, provide any important incentives of its own for electrics. Anyways, if you could tolerate the shorter range, and if a Leaf otherwise met your needs/tastes, it might warrant further investigation. If there are stackable state incentives available, the price might get even lower...

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by bloom2708 » Wed Jul 05, 2017 2:35 pm

Volvo is jumping on the gas/electric and electric only wagon.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/05/autos/v ... -stack-dom

No more combustion only engines for Volvo starting in 2019.
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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:31 am

Behold! Tesla Model 3 pics and specs are out:

http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/mo ... ve-review/

after 30 were 'delivered' to Tesla Fremont employees---i.e. alpha testers.

Lots of talk online....bottom line is that the 'stripped' 220 mile range Model 3 is available for the promised $35k MSRP, but the Tesla fans are **appalled** that $35k does not get a super luxurious vehicle...that is, it has manual adjustment seats, no seat heaters, cheap wheels, etc. If you deck it out with what Tesla fans (or luxury car buyers) want like a 310 mile range, power everything, nice wheels and ACC, then it is $52k MSRP.

I think this is about right for EVs in 2017. Both numbers are 50% of what a correspondingly stripped or decked out Model S costs, and a 50% discount is nothing to sneeze at. Price/performance will continue its exponential decay going forward. This is what you get in 2017, it would have been mindblowing in 2012.

I think the Bolt/Model 3 compare is really one of 'conventional' versus 'techie' interior styling....otherwise the function/cost factor is surprisingly similar.

wrongfunds
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by wrongfunds » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:38 pm

The biggest issue that I see is $35K car will NOT be built until they complete $52K car orders. This means that the federal tax credit will run out before the lower priced cars will reach customers hand.

Has anybody got the estimated delivery date for their specific reservation number? The website is overloaded.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by neilpilot » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:53 pm

wrongfunds wrote:The biggest issue that I see is $35K car will NOT be built until they complete $52K car orders. This means that the federal tax credit will run out before the lower priced cars will reach customers hand.

Has anybody got the estimated delivery date for their specific reservation number? The website is overloaded.
$49k estimate Jan-Feb, and $35k delivery is Apr-Jun. I placed my deposit on 4/1/16. No a current Tessa owner. Memphis TN
Last edited by neilpilot on Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Big Dog
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Big Dog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:03 pm

not current owner, but In SoCal, First Production is Nov-Jan, "standard battery" (less expensive model) is Jan-Mar. Stood in line Mar 31.

letsgobobby
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by letsgobobby » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:10 pm

wrongfunds wrote:The biggest issue that I see is $35K car will NOT be built until they complete $52K car orders. This means that the federal tax credit will run out before the lower priced cars will reach customers hand.

Has anybody got the estimated delivery date for their specific reservation number? The website is overloaded.
Exactly. It's probably the nail in the coffin for my Tesla 3 preorder. Despite the cachet of a Tesla, I'm not going to buy a $50k vehicle, even with the federal tax credit. I anticipated around $40k, plus the tax credit, netting $32,500, and saving $3000 in sales tax in my state - ie, a $43,000 vehicle for under $33,000 net cost. A Bolt may turn out to be a much better value, comparably equipped - and almost certain to get the tax credit, no guessing as there could be with a Tesla.

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Leif
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Leif » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:12 pm

The thing about the model 3 that bothers me is no instrument cluster. Elon says its not needed because of the built-in self driving capability of the car. The thing is we are a ways from self driving. It may well be a good argument 10 years from now. The thing it is not yet 10 years from now. I already have a model S. But if I did not have it the lack of an instrument cluster would prevent me from ordering.

However, I"m impressed with the 310 mile range of the extended battery.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:31 pm

neilpilot wrote:
wrongfunds wrote:<snip>
Has anybody got the estimated delivery date for their specific reservation number? The website is overloaded.
$49k estimate Jan-Feb, and $35k delivery is Apr-Jun. I placed my deposit on 4/1/16.
Location? Current Model S or X owner?

Current Model S owner, SF Bay Area, reservation date 8/8/2016. Not yet able to configure, but the delivery estimator shows:
  • First production, 310 mile range, rear wheel drive, $49K, Oct-Dec 2017.
  • Standard Battery, 220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive, $35K, Dec 2017 - Feb 2018
  • Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive, Choice of 220 or 310 mile range, Aug - Oct 2018
Kevin
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neilpilot
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by neilpilot » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:01 pm

Kevin M wrote:
neilpilot wrote:
wrongfunds wrote:<snip>
Has anybody got the estimated delivery date for their specific reservation number? The website is overloaded.
$49k estimate Jan-Feb, and $35k delivery is Apr-Jun. I placed my deposit on 4/1/16.
Location? Current Model S or X owner?


Kevin
no I'm not a current owner. My location was indicated on right. Posting has since been revised.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Slacker » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:23 pm

wrongfunds wrote:The biggest issue that I see is $35K car will NOT be built until they complete $52K car orders. This means that the federal tax credit will run out before the lower priced cars will reach customers hand.
Not quite.

See this website for how the federal tax credit works (scroll down to the section labeled "Phase-out" below the table): https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

In summary, once a manufacturer has sold 200,000 vehicles in the US, you have 6 months to obtain the full credit and then it drops to 50% ($3750) for 6 months and then drops to 25% for 6 months ($1875) and then there is finally no more tax credit.

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:52 pm

Indeed. They are running off a bunch of long range models first, but they are definitely NOT going to wait on the low range model until all long range orders are filled.

Rather, it will be delayed a couple months as they shake out production. And it is likely that plenty of low-range models will be sold with a Fed tax credit still in place....if your res # is low enough.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:58 pm

I watched Elon last night, I can't say i thought his presentation skills were great, on the other hand, I really only cared about the specs.

Anyone know if the shorter range battery is the same as the longer range and they'll just have a software unlock upgrade? I'm assuming it's about a 75kwh battery they're using.

Not sure if I like the single landscape monitor that sticks out on the dash, I like the X and S built in.

Interesting that the letters spell out S3X on their lineup...

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:14 pm

They are not releasing kWh specs....estimates are that the low range is 55 kWh and long range is closer to 75.

I agree about the monitor but folks that drive it say it is easy/fast to get used to, perhaps even easier to read than behind the wheel. And the rest of the dash is pushed farther forward (not the panel back), making the cabin seem vary spacious.
squirm wrote: Interesting that the letters spell out S3X on their lineup...
Of course the next model is 'Y'.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Big Dog » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:50 pm

Anyone know if the shorter range battery is the same as the longer range and they'll just have a software unlock upgrade? I'm assuming it's about a 75kwh battery they're using.
According to other blogs, no it is not the same battery, but just locked. They deduced that based on the heavier weight of the LR.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by visualguy » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:02 pm

No top view cameras (really useful for parking), no HUD, no instrument cluster, no buttons and dials (not even something for changing the direction of the vents?!) I would wait a couple more years for fully-equipped electric cars (which are coming from BMW, Audi, etc.)

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:04 pm

visualguy wrote:No top view cameras (really useful for parking), no HUD, no instrument cluster, no buttons and dials (not even something for changing the direction of the vents?!) I would wait a couple more years for fully-equipped electric cars (which are coming from BMW, Audi, etc.)
The vent directions are changeable via the panel. At least in the LR version; per the Motor Trend Review it was slickly adjustable. I guess there are hidden motorized louvers?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:19 pm

March-May 2018 for the 220 mile model for me (ordered 4/1, but kinda late in the day).

Jan-Mar 2018 for the 310 mile model (not interested in spending that much money)

I am still looking forward to the Sept 5/6 unveiling of the 2018 Leaf.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by visualguy » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:49 pm

just frank wrote: The vent directions are changeable via the panel. At least in the LR version; per the Motor Trend Review it was slickly adjustable. I guess there are hidden motorized louvers?
Who wants to muck around with a touchscreen interface to change the vent direction?

By the way, that Motor Trend "Review" read like an ad...

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:01 pm

visualguy wrote:Who wants to muck around with a touchscreen interface to change the vent direction?
My Model X has a few more physical buttons than the Model 3, but I got very accustomed to using the touchscreen for most things. It's a bit like driving an iPad :D

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Dendritic Tree » Sat Jul 29, 2017 8:57 pm

A couple of days before committing to a reservation made a big difference. Here's my posted schedule:

First production: Mar - May 2018
Standard battery: May - Jul 2018
Dual motor: Dec 2018 - Feb 2019

Reserved first thing in morning on Apr 4, 2016. Not a Tesla owner, live in the Southeast.

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:34 pm

visualguy wrote:
just frank wrote: The vent directions are changeable via the panel. At least in the LR version; per the Motor Trend Review it was slickly adjustable. I guess there are hidden motorized louvers?
Who wants to muck around with a touchscreen interface to change the vent direction?

By the way, that Motor Trend "Review" read like an ad...
Not me. I'm waiting for the 2018 Leaf too. :?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by harikaried » Sun Jul 30, 2017 2:51 am

Slacker wrote:See this website for how the federal tax credit works (scroll down to the section labeled "Phaseout" below the table): https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

In summary, once a manufacturer has sold 200,000 vehicles in the US, you have 6 months to obtain the full credit and then it drops to 50% ($3750) for 6 months and then drops to 25% for 6 months ($1875) and then there is finally no more tax credit.
The 6 months isn't quite accurate. It's based on calendar quarter, so the situation that maximizes the credits would be reaching the 200,000 mark at the very beginning of a quarter to get 6 months.

The example in the Phaseout section is probably pretty accurate for Tesla if you replace the example February 2010 date with February 2018. This means Teslas sold through June 2018 will get up to the $7500 credit, and Teslas sold through the rest of 2018 get up to $3750 credit. And Teslas sold through June 2019 get up to $1875 credit.

Just a few days ago, Edmunds estimated 79k more US Teslas vehicles sold before reaching the 200,000 mark. Tesla sales totals on Wikipedia are about 174k 231k, so with Edmunds estimating 121k sold in US so far, that's roughly 70% 52% sold in US, and this results in approx 30k 22k more US Model S/X sales this year. With all Model 3s going to US buyers for the next several months, if Tesla matches its expected Model 3 production plan, there will also be approx 30k Model 3s, so in total 60k of the 79k estimate for the remainder of this year. With Tesla expected to reach 20k Model 3s produced each month by the end of this year, it points to Tesla reaching the 200,000 US sold mark at the beginning of 2018.

So using Kevin M's estimated delivery dates, the $35k Standard Model 3 can be delivered December 2017, so well before the June 2018 cutoff of the max $7500 credit. The matching estimated delivery date for AWD of Aug - Oct 2018 means it'll be in the $3750 credit phaseout. (Although the AWD estimate seems suspiciously late given that Kevin M as an existing owner has first priority for customer delivery in Oct 2017 (i.e., 3 months after initial July production), and AWD production starts "Spring 2018" latest May, so a matching 3-months-after-initial-production is the Aug 2018 estimate. But one would think the AWD production ramp up would be faster than that of the initial Model 3…)
Last edited by harikaried on Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by letsgobobby » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:38 am

isn't the 200,000 figure per model, not per manufacturer? the link doesn't say that, but otherwise wouldn't each manufacturer keep creating new corporate entities to increase the number of vehicles they can sell to customers which are eligible for the full credit?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by letsgobobby » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:48 am

harikaried wrote:
Slacker wrote:See this website for how the federal tax credit works (scroll down to the section labeled "Phaseout" below the table): https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml

In summary, once a manufacturer has sold 200,000 vehicles in the US, you have 6 months to obtain the full credit and then it drops to 50% ($3750) for 6 months and then drops to 25% for 6 months ($1875) and then there is finally no more tax credit.
The 6 months isn't quite accurate. It's based on calendar quarter, so the situation that maximizes the credits would be reaching the 200,000 mark at the very beginning of a quarter to get 6 months.

The example in the Phaseout section is probably pretty accurate for Tesla if you replace the example February 2010 date with February 2018. This means Teslas sold through June 2018 will get up to the $7500 credit, and Teslas sold through the rest of 2018 get up to $3750 credit. And Teslas sold through June 2019 get up to $1875 credit.

Just a few days ago, Edmunds estimated 79k more US Teslas vehicles sold before reaching the 200,000 mark. Tesla sales totals on Wikipedia are about 174k, so with Edmunds estimating 121k sold in US so far, that's roughly 70% sold in US, and this results in approx 30k more US Model S/X sales this year. With all Model 3s going to US buyers for the next several months, if Tesla matches its expected Model 3 production plan, there will also be approx 30k Model 3s, so in total 60k of the 79k estimate for the remainder of this year. With Tesla expected to reach 20k Model 3s produced each month by the end of this year, it points to Tesla reaching the 200,000 US sold mark at the beginning of 2018.

So using Kevin M's estimated delivery dates, the $35k Standard Model 3 can be delivered December 2017, so well before the June 2018 cutoff of the max $7500 credit. The matching estimated delivery date for AWD of Aug - Oct 2018 means it'll be in the $3750 credit phaseout. (Although the AWD estimate seems suspiciously late given that Kevin M as an existing owner has first priority for customer delivery in Oct 2017 (i.e., 3 months after initial July production), and AWD production starts "Spring 2018" latest May, so a matching 3-months-after-initial-production is the Aug 2018 estimate. But one would think the AWD production ramp up would be faster than that of the initial Model 3…)
that's the optimistic view. on the other hand if they produce and sell more than expected and cross the threshold in December 2017, then per your explanation the full credit would end Match 31 2018. That is a much more tenuous situation for a prospective buyer; my delivery date for the $35k model is March - May meaning under those conditions I'd have a 2/3 chance of not receiving the full credit.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:48 am

letsgobobby wrote:isn't the 200,000 figure per model, not per manufacturer? the link doesn't say that, but otherwise wouldn't each manufacturer keep creating new corporate entities to increase the number of vehicles they can sell to customers which are eligible for the full credit?
I think it's per manufacturer.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:20 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
letsgobobby wrote:isn't the 200,000 figure per model, not per manufacturer? the link doesn't say that, but otherwise wouldn't each manufacturer keep creating new corporate entities to increase the number of vehicles they can sell to customers which are eligible for the full credit?
I think it's per manufacturer.
It's by manufacturer, otherwise each manufacturer could just keep creating new models to increase the number of vehicles they can sell to customers with full credit. Model 3, Model 4, Model 5, Model 6

This page might be helpful (though I wish they would update it)

http://insideevs.com/us-federal-7500-ev ... estimates/

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Sun Jul 30, 2017 11:49 am

I thought California was going to offset any expiring federal tax credit with their new rebate program they're trying to work through the state government.

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Leif
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Leif » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:01 pm

I am curious to see what happens when the federal rebate ends for Tesla. Certainly it had a BIG impact on sales in Hong Kong. I heard they have around 1/2 million reservations for the 3. California ended rebates for roof top solar, so I doubt they will ride to the rescue of Tesla when the federal rebates end.
Last edited by Leif on Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

harikaried
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by harikaried » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:02 pm

letsgobobby wrote:that's the optimistic view. on the other hand if they produce and sell more than expected and cross the threshold in December 2017
Which part of my calculations were optimistic? Assuming Model 3 production doesn't exceed what Tesla announced earlier this month? Assuming Model S/X deliveries don't increase significantly compared to previous quarters?

Here's a different approach using numbers from Electrek's article:
https://electrek.co/2017/01/10/tesla-ve ... t-model-3/

They say 100k of 183k Teslas were sold in the US by the beginning of this year. That's a 55% sold-in-US rate, which is skewed high for future calculations as Tesla has been expanding global sales.

Model 3 production capacity is expected to roughly double every month until reaching 20k in December, so working backwards, that's 20k December + 10k November + 5k October + ~5k July/August/September for a total of 40k in 2017 leaving 60k for Model S/X if Tesla were to hit 200,000 in 2017.

Tesla's highest quarterly sales were 25k in Q1 2017, so just extrapolating that for all of 2017 would be 100k Model S/X with 55k sold in US. If Tesla sold 10% more than that, then it could trigger the start of phaseout.

But then again, one would assume Tesla is aware of some people's willingness to buy depends on the credit, so if they were pretty close to crossing the threshold at the end of Q4 2017, they could prioritize deliveries/sales to outside the US just so that they cross the threshold at the beginning of Q1 2018 instead.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by harikaried » Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:08 pm

Leif wrote:I am curious to see what happens when the federal rebate ends for Tesla. Certainly it had a BIG impact on sales in Hong Kong.
That will be interesting to see, but one thing to note is that Hong Kong's tax exemption for Teslas effectively avoided a Tesla from costing 50-80% more. Assuming one would have gotten $7500 credit on the $35k model, that tax benefit is 27% of the reduced price. Similarly for the $49k long range premium, the full credit is 18%.

squirm
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Sun Jul 30, 2017 1:38 pm

Leif wrote:I am curious to see what happens when the federal rebate ends for Tesla. Certainly it had a BIG impact on sales in Hong Kong. I heard they have around 1/2 million reservations for the 3. California ended rebates for roof top solar, so I doubt they will ride to the rescue of Tesla when the federal rebates end.
Yeah, but sales also took off before the rebate ended. Also, Tesla's are much more expensive in Hong Kong.

i think the impact will be less so on the more expensive S models.

One the other hand, if or when the tax incentive ends, at least it will help push up the resale value.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by visualguy » Sun Jul 30, 2017 3:11 pm

Leif wrote:California ended rebates for roof top solar, so I doubt they will ride to the rescue of Tesla when the federal rebates end.
I agree - they won't. They scaled down the rebates that they had for electric cars by imposing an income cap.

squirm
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:11 pm

visualguy wrote:
Leif wrote:California ended rebates for roof top solar, so I doubt they will ride to the rescue of Tesla when the federal rebates end.
I agree - they won't. They scaled down the rebates that they had for electric cars by imposing an income cap.
Disagree look at ab1184.

wrongfunds
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by wrongfunds » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:04 pm

This is what it shows. I interpreted this data as those models will start becoming available in mass quantities at that time. My reservation date was 3/31/2016

Are you suggesting that the following printout is specific to my reservation slot?

First Production
310 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive
$49,000
Dec 2017 - Feb 2018

Standard Battery
220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive
$35,000
Feb - Apr 2018

Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Choice of 220 or 310 mile range
Sep - Nov 2018

visualguy
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by visualguy » Sun Jul 30, 2017 7:35 pm

squirm wrote:
visualguy wrote:
Leif wrote:California ended rebates for roof top solar, so I doubt they will ride to the rescue of Tesla when the federal rebates end.
I agree - they won't. They scaled down the rebates that they had for electric cars by imposing an income cap.
Disagree look at ab1184.
I looked at it. How does it address the end of the federal rebates? It's just an update of the current rebate scheme, and it will still have an income cap.

Iorek
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Iorek » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:35 pm

Seems odd not to have heated seats in all models since that's a much more efficient way for a EV to warm the passengers compared to generating hot air.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Mordoch » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:53 pm

Iorek wrote:Seems odd not to have heated seats in all models since that's a much more efficient way for a EV to warm the passengers compared to generating hot air.
This is very much a standard practice in many different car models. Basically in terms of manufacturing cost it is an additional expense to add to a vehicle in a way that is safe and comfortable. In addition, car manufacturers pretty much always deliberately leave out certain features at the lowest variant of a particular model to encourage a portion of the customers to upgrade to a "higher trim" and heated seats are a typical difference. At least in terms of selling individual vehicles, the non-base models generally have a higher profit margin for the manufacturer so it makes sense to encourage customers to opt for these options from a business standpoint.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:15 pm

Mordoch wrote:
Iorek wrote:Seems odd not to have heated seats in all models since that's a much more efficient way for a EV to warm the passengers compared to generating hot air.
This is very much a standard practice in many different car models. Basically in terms of manufacturing cost it is an additional expense to add to a vehicle in a way that is safe and comfortable. In addition, car manufacturers pretty much always deliberately leave out certain features at the lowest variant of a particular model to encourage a portion of the customers to upgrade to a "higher trim" and heated seats are a typical difference. At least in terms of selling individual vehicles, the non-base models generally have a higher profit margin for the manufacturer so it makes sense to encourage customers to opt for these options from a business standpoint.
I thought Tesla was not your average car company doing what is "standard practice" in the industry ;)

(don't think my wife would let me buy a car without seat heaters... me... meh, don't care... and I would want to drive our Subaru in the winter anyway)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:32 am

TravelGeek wrote:... and I would want to drive our Subaru in the winter anyway)
I don't know why so little mention is made of this, but an EV's instantaneous torque adjustments makes winter driving a radically different experience. Much more sure footed than our AWD Range Rover and Volvos, neither of them slouches with proper tires.

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Mon Jul 31, 2017 5:40 am

Yupyup. Our silly looking 2013 LEAF, with snow tires, is the best handling winter/snow car I have ever owned. Its a monster.

Iorek
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Iorek » Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:03 am

Mordoch wrote:
Iorek wrote:Seems odd not to have heated seats in all models since that's a much more efficient way for a EV to warm the passengers compared to generating hot air.
This is very much a standard practice in many different car models. Basically in terms of manufacturing cost it is an additional expense to add to a vehicle in a way that is safe and comfortable. In addition, car manufacturers pretty much always deliberately leave out certain features at the lowest variant of a particular model to encourage a portion of the customers to upgrade to a "higher trim" and heated seats are a typical difference. At least in terms of selling individual vehicles, the non-base models generally have a higher profit margin for the manufacturer so it makes sense to encourage customers to opt for these options from a business standpoint.
Of course I understand that automakers like to have different options to encourage upsells but the point I was trying to make is that in an EV heated seats aren't merely a touch of luxury like leather seats or heated side view mirrors-- they are an important strategy for preserving range.

Because EVs have no excess heat from the engine it is actually pretty costly in terms of range for them to produce heated air. Not giving the base model heated seats means that in winter the base model will suffer a further range penalty compared to the more expensive car. Maybe you'll say it doesn't make much difference given the overall range of the car but it seems a poor choice about what to make optional to me.

wrongfunds
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by wrongfunds » Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:23 am

I thought Tesla was not your average car company doing what is "standard practice" in the industry ;)
But apart from Elon every single key personnel is from the same dreaded industry and they use the same techniques.

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