Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

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Kevin M
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:29 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:If I'm taking a trip, I charge to 90% overnight, but I feel comfortable topping it off to 100% the morning of the trip.

I do the same. I'll also often set my max charge to 100% when on trips, so say if at lunch and I get more charge than I need in the time it takes to eat, the car will continue to charge, my next SC stop will be shorter, and I won't get assessed an idle fee (relatively new thing). Of course I only do this at uncrowded SCs :wink:.

My understanding is that this also helps improve the calibration of your maximum rated range, since the car's computer can better assess how much charge the battery can actually hold. I actually rarely get to 100%, since once it hits 99%, it says "5 minutes left to charge" for longer than I ever wait before departing.

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BrandonBogle
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Wed Mar 22, 2017 4:44 pm

inbox788 wrote:
BrandonBogle wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:I'm a Tesla fanboy, but I honestly want the Bolt to do well, and for other manufacturers to do well in the BEV space also. I think that 90% of consumers have use cases that make BEV a reasonable solution, but it will take education/promotion/advertising to convince them.


I agree with every part of this statement.

I'll dissent. It's not that I'm against BEV, but that the cost and environment isn't quite ready yet. Going from 2% BEV to 20% is going to be slow, but I think once we hit that point, it will quickly become 80%. Still, with hundreds of millions of ICE vehicles on the road, it will be another decade before gas stations start being dismantled en mass.

We still have a lot of infrastructure problems to solve. Building enough batteries. Building more charging stations. Recycling billions of batteries in 10 or 20 years. The existing crop of under 100 mile range vehicles has shown it's an inadequate range. Once the non-subsidized $30,000 new BEV vehicle with over 200 mile range and free fast home charger installed is available, I think we'll see a big pickup in uptake. The Bolt is helping to get us there, but there's still a lot of cost reduction to do.


Am I missing something? Everything you wrote is in support of or unrelated to what TomatoTomahto said and I agreed with. Where is the dissent?

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Wed Mar 22, 2017 8:13 pm

I suppose the dissent is in the timeline.

All I'll point re that is that adoption is typically an 'S' curve that is exponential in the beginning, linear in the middle and asymptotic in the end. If you believe BEVs will get well over 50% ultimately, you might expect it to remain exponential up to 20% or so, before going linear.

This behavior is despite the 'issues' that are typically encountered with all tech rollout.

At current rates with global and US sales doubling every couple years, it is not hard to imagine going from the current ~1% (BEV + PHEV) to 20% in 4+ doublings... in 8-10 years, or 2025-2027 timeframe.

Of course, by the time they become that popular, long range BEVs will be cheaper than comparable ICE cars.

Conversely going from 20% to 80%, only 2 doublings, might be in the linear portion and take 1-2 more decades.

At least, that seems to be more or less the educated guesses I see out there.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:41 pm

just frank wrote:I suppose the dissent is in the timeline.

All I'll point re that is that adoption is typically an 'S' curve that is exponential in the beginning, linear in the middle and asymptotic in the end. If you believe BEVs will get well over 50% ultimately, you might expect it to remain exponential up to 20% or so, before going linear.

This behavior is despite the 'issues' that are typically encountered with all tech rollout.

At current rates with global and US sales doubling every couple years, it is not hard to imagine going from the current ~1% (BEV + PHEV) to 20% in 4+ doublings... in 8-10 years, or 2025-2027 timeframe.


I hadn't made a statement about timing, but I will say that my thoughts on BEVs becoming a majority are more in line with what you outline (though not quite that far out) than anything in the 201x years. Note, I am speaking majority overall vs. the majority of new car sales.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by inbox788 » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:13 pm

just frank wrote:I suppose the dissent is in the timeline.

All I'll point re that is that adoption is typically an 'S' curve that is exponential in the beginning, linear in the middle and asymptotic in the end. If you believe BEVs will get well over 50% ultimately, you might expect it to remain exponential up to 20% or so, before going linear.

This behavior is despite the 'issues' that are typically encountered with all tech rollout.

At current rates with global and US sales doubling every couple years, it is not hard to imagine going from the current ~1% (BEV + PHEV) to 20% in 4+ doublings... in 8-10 years, or 2025-2027 timeframe.

Of course, by the time they become that popular, long range BEVs will be cheaper than comparable ICE cars.

Conversely going from 20% to 80%, only 2 doublings, might be in the linear portion and take 1-2 more decades.

At least, that seems to be more or less the educated guesses I see out there.


I took the 90% use case to mean today at current costs with existing infrastructure. With improvements, the use cases expand, but gradually.

Exactly about the timeline. That timeline of a couple of decades is more modest, but I don't think we'll see 20% new cars produced BEV+PHEV in 2025. I'd guess we'd be inching up on 10% in that timeframe. It's a matter of how quickly we get there. A lot of BEV folks believe that in 10 years, you won't see ICE cars and everyone will be driving electric; gas stations will all be shutdown. The smartphone revolution took less than 10 years! I doubt the EV revolution will be that quick. Same with those touting self driving cars. Some think that a baby born today will never have to learn to drive. I'm skeptical of that timeline too. I think it's 50/50 if I will own an electric car in my lifetime, and < 5% that it's self-driving. When I'm retired and can't drive, it will be nice if self-driving cars were around, but I'm still sticking to Uber with drivers.

I think it's a series of S curve steps as incremental progress is made. Depends on the willingness of manufacturers to take risk, but after a few flops and more money lost than planned, few manufacturers are going to be willing to expand out large capacity. And that's the limiting step that keeps thing slow and linear for a while.

I'm surprised we haven't identified some niches where electric vehicles are dominant and taken over. Anyone know what the electric vs gas golf cart market share is? (on and off the golf course) I was just at a campground, and they were driving around a gas golf cart. Electric garbage truck? There's lots of potential of electric motors and batteries replacing gas powered engines (lawn mowers, blowers, etc.), but their limitations and the slow speed of overcoming the drawbacks is making progress slow.

https://www.wired.com/2016/07/tesla-co- ... -tech-not/

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just frank
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Thu Mar 23, 2017 5:30 am

inbox788 wrote:I took the 90% use case to mean today at current costs with existing infrastructure. With improvements, the use cases expand, but gradually.

Exactly about the timeline. That timeline of a couple of decades is more modest, but I don't think we'll see 20% new cars produced BEV+PHEV in 2025. I'd guess we'd be inching up on 10% in that timeframe. It's a matter of how quickly we get there. A lot of BEV folks believe that in 10 years, you won't see ICE cars and everyone will be driving electric; gas stations will all be shutdown. The smartphone revolution took less than 10 years! I doubt the EV revolution will be that quick. Same with those touting self driving cars. Some think that a baby born today will never have to learn to drive. I'm skeptical of that timeline too. I think it's 50/50 if I will own an electric car in my lifetime, and < 5% that it's self-driving. When I'm retired and can't drive, it will be nice if self-driving cars were around, but I'm still sticking to Uber with drivers.

I think it's a series of S curve steps as incremental progress is made. Depends on the willingness of manufacturers to take risk, but after a few flops and more money lost than planned, few manufacturers are going to be willing to expand out large capacity. And that's the limiting step that keeps thing slow and linear for a while.

I'm surprised we haven't identified some niches where electric vehicles are dominant and taken over. Anyone know what the electric vs gas golf cart market share is? (on and off the golf course) I was just at a campground, and they were driving around a gas golf cart. Electric garbage truck? There's lots of potential of electric motors and batteries replacing gas powered engines (lawn mowers, blowers, etc.), but their limitations and the slow speed of overcoming the drawbacks is making progress slow.

https://www.wired.com/2016/07/tesla-co- ... -tech-not/


OK. A LOT of mowers, blowers, trimmers and hand tools in my local hardware store are now Lithium powered. They seem to sell well. In areas with tougher air pollution regs, I expect even more so.

A number of highly polluted cities are switching to 100% BEV buses and taxis. My coworkers report that throughout east asia, many of the taxis they take are already BEVs. China hopes to sell 800k BEV+PHEV units domestically this year, after selling 500k in 2016. Not a small number 7 years before 2025. That is one niche answer...but funded by municipal govt.

The Tesla fans will say that in the Model S 'segment' of luxury cars, the other (ICE) makers have seen their sales fall by double digits yoy during an economic expansion, and that is due to Tesla. Response: all those makers are now designing 'Tesla killers' that will be long range BEVs or PHEVs that will go head to head with Tesla in the next couple years. What if they ALL sell well? That is another niche, high priced luxury cars.

Then there is Norway. A small country, indeed, but in Jan 2017 BEV+PHEV reached 37% of new car sales in the country. Combined with hybrids, the number was over 50%. The Netherlands is talking about banning ICE cars at some point in the 2020s. That is another niche: countries with expensive gasoline, cheap electricity and progressive politics.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by inbox788 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 4:47 pm

just frank wrote:OK. A LOT of mowers, blowers, trimmers and hand tools in my local hardware store are now Lithium powered. They seem to sell well. In areas with tougher air pollution regs, I expect even more so.

A number of highly polluted cities are switching to 100% BEV buses and taxis. My coworkers report that throughout east asia, many of the taxis they take are already BEVs. China hopes to sell 800k BEV+PHEV units domestically this year, after selling 500k in 2016. Not a small number 7 years before 2025. That is one niche answer...but funded by municipal govt.

The Tesla fans will say that in the Model S 'segment' of luxury cars, the other (ICE) makers have seen their sales fall by double digits yoy during an economic expansion, and that is due to Tesla. Response: all those makers are now designing 'Tesla killers' that will be long range BEVs or PHEVs that will go head to head with Tesla in the next couple years. What if they ALL sell well? That is another niche, high priced luxury cars.

Then there is Norway. A small country, indeed, but in Jan 2017 BEV+PHEV reached 37% of new car sales in the country. Combined with hybrids, the number was over 50%. The Netherlands is talking about banning ICE cars at some point in the 2020s. That is another niche: countries with expensive gasoline, cheap electricity and progressive politics.


Great examples. Putting it in perspective, Norway population 5M, Netherlands 17M, New York Metro 20M. Norway is a big country so I assume there's more cars per capita than Netherlands, which might have a larger public transportation network. Banning ICE cars on Manhattan in the 2020s would be one way to reduce traffic! (at least for a short while)

These are great canaries or bellwethers to keep an eye on to see how quickly adoption might come to the masses. There will be a gold rush or bubble in the next decades relating to shift. Tesla stock is overvalued or undervalued depending on your view.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by srt7 » Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:47 pm

squirm wrote:Neighbor is asking. 50 mile commute and will probably do some road trips. Two year time frame.
I'm suggesting Model 3, because of access to Superchargers.
Superchargers work, are relatively fast, are rarely iced, and in many locations unlike public chargers. That alone i think is a huge advantage, without even going into the car specifics.


Both
1. Place an order for the Tesla
2. Lease the Bolt for 24 to 36 months based on 12 months + whatever time frame Tesla promised the delivery

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:01 am

inbox788 wrote:
just frank wrote:OK. A LOT of mowers, blowers, trimmers and hand tools in my local hardware store are now Lithium powered. They seem to sell well. In areas with tougher air pollution regs, I expect even more so.

A number of highly polluted cities are switching to 100% BEV buses and taxis. My coworkers report that throughout east asia, many of the taxis they take are already BEVs. China hopes to sell 800k BEV+PHEV units domestically this year, after selling 500k in 2016. Not a small number 7 years before 2025. That is one niche answer...but funded by municipal govt.

The Tesla fans will say that in the Model S 'segment' of luxury cars, the other (ICE) makers have seen their sales fall by double digits yoy during an economic expansion, and that is due to Tesla. Response: all those makers are now designing 'Tesla killers' that will be long range BEVs or PHEVs that will go head to head with Tesla in the next couple years. What if they ALL sell well? That is another niche, high priced luxury cars.

Then there is Norway. A small country, indeed, but in Jan 2017 BEV+PHEV reached 37% of new car sales in the country. Combined with hybrids, the number was over 50%. The Netherlands is talking about banning ICE cars at some point in the 2020s. That is another niche: countries with expensive gasoline, cheap electricity and progressive politics.


Great examples. Putting it in perspective, Norway population 5M, Netherlands 17M, New York Metro 20M. Norway is a big country so I assume there's more cars per capita than Netherlands, which might have a larger public transportation network. Banning ICE cars on Manhattan in the 2020s would be one way to reduce traffic! (at least for a short while)


Actually probably not. Netherlands probably more cars per capita than Norway. From the Netherlands you can drive to anywhere in Continental Europe, probably within 24 hours (of straight driving). And Norway has very high gasoline taxation and car taxes. I would have to check the numbers (which I am too lazy to do right this minute ;-) ).

Re EVs. The are not a solution for urban congestion. Any more than self driving cars are. London is the perfect case in point (congestion charge of c $20 per day 7am to 7pm). Central London road traffic speed is about 8 mph, about the same as it was in 1910 when horse drawn vehicles were still a significant proportion of traffic (the majority, then).

In other words, traffic expands until the time cost of using a car is large enough that it is unattractive to the user. There's a point where that occurs (probably around 8mph in a dense city like London or NYC). Any measure that "relieves" traffic but does not permanently discourage it, will simply in time find traffic grows back to increase travel times/ reduce travel speeds back to equilibrium.

You can close off streets to traffic, or you can go whole hog like the Danes or the Dutch and make bicycle travel faster than car travel (and perhaps just as safe)* but you cannot, by playing with automotive traffic (or building public transport) make roads go faster. Build better public transport, road speeds increase, more people drive. Back to where you started ;-). :oops:

Self driving cars make the whole thing worse. Because then the time cost of driving is significantly reduced or even abolished- -that's going to make the San Jose- San Francisco area really interesting ;-). 8-) Also you don't need the parking, so the parking limitation on urban traffic is sharply reduced.

There's a word for this in the technical literature but I cannot think what it is.

These are great canaries or bellwethers to keep an eye on to see how quickly adoption might come to the masses. There will be a gold rush or bubble in the next decades relating to shift. Tesla stock is overvalued or undervalued depending on your view.


There will be both bubbles and busts, like with any rapidly changing industry. Tesla is overvalued by any possible metric (so is Amazon) *but* Musk might yet pull a rabbit out of the hat. I don't see how, but he's done it before (shrug).

Rest assured though that this thing has legs, and more legs, perhaps, than you will find posts from me 6 months or a year ago, arguing.

There's a paper in Science this week and because we quickly get into forbidden areas on the Forum I am simply going to give you the reference and not the title

Science 24 Mar 2017:
Vol. 355, Issue 6331, pp. 1269-1271
DOI: 10.1126/science.aah3443

if you look at just the diagrams (click the tab) then you'll see the scale of what has to be accomplished. What's more, I think the human race has a survival instinct, so I think it *will* be accomplished (albeit with quite a bit of blood, sweat and tears on the way, and not in any sense a smooth pathway). "[the world] can always be relied upon to do the right thing, after they have tried everything else"-- misquoting Winston Spencer Churchil.

* it might (well) be pointed out that a New York winter is not the best place to be bicycling. I grew up in a NE North American city, and one of my colleagues as a student rode his bicycle too and from school (about 5-6 miles, and on a hill) every day of the year-- but one blizzard at least, his mother made him take the subway ;-).

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Valuethinker » Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:14 am

just frank wrote:
A number of highly polluted cities are switching to 100% BEV buses and taxis. My coworkers report that throughout east asia, many of the taxis they take are already BEVs. China hopes to sell 800k BEV+PHEV units domestically this year, after selling 500k in 2016. Not a small number 7 years before 2025. That is one niche answer...but funded by municipal govt.


London black cabs too, the first all electric one is being launched. London has some of the worst air pollution in all of Europe (diesels + Nox + pm2.5 particulates) and violates the EU air pollution limits on a frightening number of days (at levels that would never meet California standards).

And this highlights a truth. Non Communist Party political initiatives are generally suppressed pretty ruthlessly in China, and classic pressure groups BUT environmental groups concerned with water quality and urban air quality are being encouraged. The Party has identified urban air pollution as a huge political issue, and is using those groups to pressure manufacturers and local government cadres that do not comply with the Party's edicts. For example the last coal-fired power station in Beijing is being shut down.

What the Party targets, has a way of happening in the Middle Kingdom. The model of government is Confucian-paternalistic (think Singapore) rather than merely crooked loot-and-pillage (think Russia). Urban air pollution is now on the target list. And, more broadly, states and their utility companies are being forced to cancel coal-fired power stations.

This is a government of engineers, technocrats-- the main educational background of the CCP Central Committee (think America, where Generals, Admirals and Airmen usually have an engineering undergraduate degree, or France, where politicians, CEOs and bankers often have advanced engineering degrees from Ecole Polytechnique or Ecoles Des Mines).

EVs are a technocratic solution to a political-environmental problem. Watch this space.

This is not different than what the happened after the 1952 Great Smog of London (5,000-10,000 abnormal deaths). The public decided London's air would be cleaned up. The declassified Cabinet Minutes of the time showed the Cabinet thought this would be too expensive or impossible-- and, the first Smoke Orders were passed, and it was done. The public wanted it, and the usual practical objections raised by the Treasury, the fuel suppliers etc. were simply crushed in the political urgency of the moment.

Or consider the state of the air in Tokyo in the early 1970s (traffic police topped themselves up with breaths of pure oxygen from tanks). Or Los Angeles.

It became politically unacceptable, and something was done about it.



Then there is Norway. A small country, indeed, but in Jan 2017 BEV+PHEV reached 37% of new car sales in the country. Combined with hybrids, the number was over 50%. The Netherlands is talking about banning ICE cars at some point in the 2020s. That is another niche: countries with expensive gasoline, cheap electricity and progressive politics.


Norway hugely subsidized EVs and there was a rush to buy them. Also I think they are exempt from certain parking and road restrictions? BUT the Norwegians are serious and they know they have a problem (being one of the world's largest oil and gas producers). Given the state of Dutch politics it's not as clear to me this will happen there, though the Dutch don't have a big car industry to lose out the way the Germans (and to a lesser extent the French) do.

I think though that the world's major auto manufacturers can see the biggest disruption since the Energy Crisis of 1973, or arguably the Ford Model T, on the horizon. And they are starting to respond.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by a » Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:28 pm

Interesting vignettes Valuethinker, thanks.
I admire your broad and detailed knowledge of human affairs.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:21 am

a wrote:Interesting vignettes Valuethinker, thanks.
I admire your broad and detailed knowledge of human affairs.


ditto. :)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Valuethinker » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:15 am

just frank wrote:
a wrote:Interesting vignettes Valuethinker, thanks.
I admire your broad and detailed knowledge of human affairs.


ditto. :)


You are both being most kind.

And I admire both your knowledge ;-).

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:23 pm

a wrote:Interesting vignettes Valuethinker, thanks.
I admire your broad and detailed knowledge of human affairs.

I was tempted to mention Valuethinker in a different post, viewtopic.php?f=11&t=214242 , in which the OP wanted to know the "Best way to expand my vocabulary?" I was going to suggest that the OP read some of the frequent forum contributors, Valuethinker specifically, because it's about so much more than using fancy words.

I didn't take the opportunity then, so I will say it now: Valuethinker's posts are always worth reading, and I invariably exit the post knowing something I didn't know when I entered it.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by misterno » Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:41 pm

Currently the best and most efficient batteries are made up of Lithium and plus another material

The problem is there is not enough Lithium in the world to convert all cars to electric cars. Right now, lithium prices are 7x the price 5 years ago and keeps going up. Because there is too much demand and not enough supply

Sooner or later this price increase will hit the price of electric cars.

China on the other hand, manufactures cars with the old style battery lead acid. Less efficient and cheaper but since Chinese cars are small and very light, the impact on the range is not deadly.

In summary, I think humankind needs to find another battery technology otherwise we will be back to ICE soon...

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by harikaried » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:01 pm

misterno wrote:Currently the best and most efficient batteries are made up of Lithium and plus another material
Curious, why the focus on lithium when it's barely a couple percentage (~2%) by volume of the battery? Sure, there will be increased demand for it, but how about all the other materials that go into a battery, e.g., nickel and graphite?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by inbox788 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 1:18 am

harikaried wrote:
misterno wrote:Currently the best and most efficient batteries are made up of Lithium and plus another material
Curious, why the focus on lithium when it's barely a couple percentage (~2%) by volume of the battery? Sure, there will be increased demand for it, but how about all the other materials that go into a battery, e.g., nickel and graphite?

I don't know, but I've heard both stories. Limited lithium and abundance of lithium. I think the limitation is the mining and refining for battery use, but it seems there is quite an abundance of lithium on the earth.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abundance ... th's_crust

Now nickle is even more abundant (maybe 5X lithium), but if you compare the annual production, it's orders of magnitude different. Don't know about graphite, but carbon is very abundant too.

I'm surprised there's so much Magnesium, and maybe we should be doing more with that in cars. But I guess it competes with aluminum for cost and titanium in function.

I don't see helium on the list, and I wonder if we're going to run out of helium to fill balloons.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:16 am

misterno wrote:Currently the best and most efficient batteries are made up of Lithium and plus another material

The problem is there is not enough Lithium in the world to convert all cars to electric cars. Right now, lithium prices are 7x the price 5 years ago and keeps going up. Because there is too much demand and not enough supply

Sooner or later this price increase will hit the price of electric cars.

China on the other hand, manufactures cars with the old style battery lead acid. Less efficient and cheaper but since Chinese cars are small and very light, the impact on the range is not deadly.

In summary, I think humankind needs to find another battery technology otherwise we will be back to ICE soon...


Sorry, but you appear to have been misinformed.

There a number of large lithium deposits all around the world, usually in locations where a inland sea evaporated, leaving the brines behind. As for how much there is: Li is about 1/10th as abundant as Carbon in the Earth's crust..hardly scarce. Many of these deposits have been developed over the years, and then gone bust due to ruthless competition from someone a continent away, and due to very low global demand and fluctuating prices. A common story with mining in general. As Li demand increases, more of these deposits will be developed...currently global demand is easily met by relatively small operations in China.

You are correct that the Chinese EVs, while looking like normal cars, not golf carts, might not be street legal or popular in the US. But in general they are all lithium powered. The Chinese manufacturers prefer LiFePO4, known as LIFPO, which has poorer performance per mass and volume than the chemistries used by the US and non-chinese makers, BUT it has the advantage of better durability (cycle life). To keep costs down, the battery packs are smaller than in the US (the higher end BYD QIn, is still only 14.4 kWh LIFPO), so the better cycle life is important to compensate. For an urban runabout, it would still work for a lot of use cases.

That said, there is nothing special about Lithium...now that tens of billions of dollars have been spent on its engineering, it will be hard to displace due to its resulting low cost, but something else will no doubt come along. This 'something else' will presumably get its start doing something (like aviation?) that Li is marginal for. It might be a couple decades, or more. Lead-acid has held on for a century plus, and is not done yet.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by hightower » Tue Mar 28, 2017 4:36 am

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that its silly to even worry about what EV to buy 2 years from now. The market is changing too fast. BMW is expected to come out with 2 new EVs by then, for instance. The current i3 is expected to get a big range boost and they are supposed to have a new model i5 as well. These could be possible contenders. Honda is supposed to announce a Clarity EV next month. Nissan already mentioned. Its an exciting time to be considering EVs.
If your friend doesn't need a car for 2 years, then he's lucky. He'll have more choices.
However, if he's a fan of Tesla, go ahead and put a deposit down on a model 3. But, I agree, it could be a very long wait for one of those. With the huge number of orders already placed, it could take several years for Tesla to catch up and they haven't actually started production yet. Make sure the reservation is fully refundable though. I'm not knocking Tesla though. I'm a big fan and I fully plan on purchasing a Tesla someday. But, I'm not going to give them money now for a car that doesn't exist yet.

For what its worth, I'm waiting for delivery of a brand new BMW i3 BEV hopefully next week:) I'm super excited. It doesn't have the range that it sounds like your friend wants, but I only need about 50-60 miles/day and we have a ICE for road trips (which we very rarely do). My plan is to keep our current set up with the i3 plus a Honda Fit and in a few years when Tesla is hopefully producing lots of Model 3's, we'll consider replacing the Fit with a Model 3. However, I'll also consider other EVs available at the time.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:16 am

hightower wrote:For what its worth, I'm waiting for delivery of a brand new BMW i3 BEV hopefully next week:) I'm super excited. It doesn't have the range that it sounds like your friend wants, but I only need about 50-60 miles/day and we have a ICE for road trips (which we very rarely do). My plan is to keep our current set up with the i3 plus a Honda Fit and in a few years when Tesla is hopefully producing lots of Model 3's, we'll consider replacing the Fit with a Model 3. However, I'll also consider other EVs available at the time.


I am currently in a Honda Fit + Tesla Model S household and it's a great setup. The S is my primary car and we've taken it camping, road trips throughout the East Coast of the US, and daily commute/errands. The Fit is driver like crazy locally/regionally, so a long-range BEV is needed. Hoping a Bolt (in 2017) or similar vehicle in later years will fill that need. You will do well with your i3 and Fit. Congrats!

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by misterno » Tue Mar 28, 2017 9:15 am

just frank wrote:
misterno wrote:Currently the best and most efficient batteries are made up of Lithium and plus another material

The problem is there is not enough Lithium in the world to convert all cars to electric cars. Right now, lithium prices are 7x the price 5 years ago and keeps going up. Because there is too much demand and not enough supply

Sooner or later this price increase will hit the price of electric cars.

China on the other hand, manufactures cars with the old style battery lead acid. Less efficient and cheaper but since Chinese cars are small and very light, the impact on the range is not deadly.

In summary, I think humankind needs to find another battery technology otherwise we will be back to ICE soon...


Sorry, but you appear to have been misinformed.

There a number of large lithium deposits all around the world, usually in locations where a inland sea evaporated, leaving the brines behind. As for how much there is: Li is about 1/10th as abundant as Carbon in the Earth's crust..hardly scarce. Many of these deposits have been developed over the years, and then gone bust due to ruthless competition from someone a continent away, and due to very low global demand and fluctuating prices. A common story with mining in general. As Li demand increases, more of these deposits will be developed...currently global demand is easily met by relatively small operations in China.

You are correct that the Chinese EVs, while looking like normal cars, not golf carts, might not be street legal or popular in the US. But in general they are all lithium powered. The Chinese manufacturers prefer LiFePO4, known as LIFPO, which has poorer performance per mass and volume than the chemistries used by the US and non-chinese makers, BUT it has the advantage of better durability (cycle life). To keep costs down, the battery packs are smaller than in the US (the higher end BYD QIn, is still only 14.4 kWh LIFPO), so the better cycle life is important to compensate. For an urban runabout, it would still work for a lot of use cases.

That said, there is nothing special about Lithium...now that tens of billions of dollars have been spent on its engineering, it will be hard to displace due to its resulting low cost, but something else will no doubt come along. This 'something else' will presumably get its start doing something (like aviation?) that Li is marginal for. It might be a couple decades, or more. Lead-acid has held on for a century plus, and is not done yet.


So do you want me to believe you or believe the chart below?


Image

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Tue Mar 28, 2017 3:50 pm

misterno wrote:
So do you want me to believe you or believe the chart below?

Image


I guess it depends on where the chart goes on the right side? Do you know? How?

Do you have a real $ chart?

Also, the price does not appear to have risen 7-fold (nominal) in the last 5 years....?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by jbran99 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:35 am

Some relevant quotes from a Bloomberg article published today titled "The Great Nevada Lithium Rush"

From the article:
Banks and consultants such as Deutsche Bank and Macquarie Research are near-unanimous in the belief that the next several years will see an increase of 60 percent to 250 percent in demand for lithium—and that it will sell for 50 percent or more above historical levels...UBS Group estimates that electric cars will account for 9.2 percent of global light vehicle sales by 2025, up from only 1 percent today, while analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have suggested that the market for lithium in energy storage could eventually be bigger than in all other products combined.

Already, the four companies that in 2015 provided 88 percent of the world’s lithium can’t keep up: Lithium contract prices have increased from $4,000 per metric ton in 2014 to as high as $20,000 today.

However, (from the same article):
[Lithium batteries] provide more energy per weight or volume than other battery chemistries. And it’s cost-effective: The lithium in a Tesla costs around $500, less than a roof rack.

So it appears that while Lithium prices may spike in the short-term, the actual nominal cost impact to auto manufacturers (and therefore consumers) may not be as significant.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by misterno » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:01 am

jbran99 wrote:Some relevant quotes from a Bloomberg article published today titled "The Great Nevada Lithium Rush"

From the article:
Banks and consultants such as Deutsche Bank and Macquarie Research are near-unanimous in the belief that the next several years will see an increase of 60 percent to 250 percent in demand for lithium—and that it will sell for 50 percent or more above historical levels...UBS Group estimates that electric cars will account for 9.2 percent of global light vehicle sales by 2025, up from only 1 percent today, while analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have suggested that the market for lithium in energy storage could eventually be bigger than in all other products combined.

Already, the four companies that in 2015 provided 88 percent of the world’s lithium can’t keep up: Lithium contract prices have increased from $4,000 per metric ton in 2014 to as high as $20,000 today.

However, (from the same article):
[Lithium batteries] provide more energy per weight or volume than other battery chemistries. And it’s cost-effective: The lithium in a Tesla costs around $500, less than a roof rack.

So it appears that while Lithium prices may spike in the short-term, the actual nominal cost impact to auto manufacturers (and therefore consumers) may not be as significant.


$20,000 per tonne? The above chart shows $7,000

And with these prices it still does not deter EV manufacturers to stop. Well what if it goes to $100,000/tonne?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by jbran99 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:10 am

misterno wrote:$20,000 per tonne? The above chart shows $7,000

And with these prices it still does not deter EV manufacturers to stop. Well what if it goes to $100,000/tonne?

Did you actually read the article?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by btenny » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:24 pm

One of the key reasons Tesla choose Nevada as the home for the Gigafactory was the presence of these lithium mines. Musk really liked that the mines were close to the factory and all in a state that is known for helping businesses succeed. See below. They bought into those Nevada mines back in 2015 to insure a reasonable cost supply of Lithium.

http://fortune.com/2015/09/16/tesla-lit ... ry-nevada/

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:51 pm

misterno wrote:
$20,000 per tonne? The above chart shows $7,000

And with these prices it still does not deter EV manufacturers to stop. Well what if it goes to $100,000/tonne?


The answer: a 'Global Lithium Rush' in many locations around the world, a boost in production, and a crash in the price back to a more reasonable level.

The miners wouldn't be '49ers though...if this happens, it would be before 2049.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by canon_shooter » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:29 am

Just went through the analysis and am looking for a reason to be talked into the S. I'd love to have a Tesla, but frankly, I can't rationalize paying literally twice the value. The Bolt Premier is about 40K MSRP after shopping around (minus the fast charger at 750). The S is about 75K+ new, or 60K used. Buying new knocks off about 7-10K with all the rebates for both cars. I'd pay maybe 10K premium for the S, but the price differential is too large for me to ignore the Bolt. Don't want to wait 2 years for the Model 3. All my driving is local, SF Bay Area and the 240V charging meets my needs.

Yes, the S is more of a luxury car, but I guess the whole reason I retired at 55 was that I was frugal and maybe it's working against me :-)

Pining for the S, but opting for the Bolt.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:44 am

canon_shooter wrote:Pining for the S, but opting for the Bolt.


Agree with your argument....but I'd get the fast charging package. $750 is not much, and as the network get's built out, it will be more useful. More to the point, I think you'll get the $750 back in resale.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:39 am

just frank wrote:
canon_shooter wrote:Pining for the S, but opting for the Bolt.


Agree with your argument....but I'd get the fast charging package. $750 is not much, and as the network get's built out, it will be more useful. More to the point, I think you'll get the $750 back in resale.

I agree on the fast charger. I'm not up on the details, but I assume that it's not something you (or a subsequent owner) can economically retrofit. The stock charger, adding 4 miles of range per hour of charging, is a deal breaker; in a few years, it will be viewed as comical that anyone offered that on anything bigger than a golf cart. I view it that way now.

Maybe in my old age I've become a hedonist, but on a close call I'd go for the S.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:52 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote:
canon_shooter wrote:Pining for the S, but opting for the Bolt.


Agree with your argument....but I'd get the fast charging package. $750 is not much, and as the network get's built out, it will be more useful. More to the point, I think you'll get the $750 back in resale.

I agree on the fast charger. I'm not up on the details, but I assume that it's not something you (or a subsequent owner) can economically retrofit. The stock charger, adding 4 miles of range per hour of charging, is a deal breaker; in a few years, it will be viewed as comical that anyone offered that on anything bigger than a golf cart. I view it that way now.

Maybe in my old age I've become a hedonist, but on a close call I'd go for the S.


Not to quibble....the 4 mph L1 charger that ships with this thing is intended as an 'emergency' charger, like a spare tire, if you end up somewhere without an L2 charger. My 6kW L2 charger adds ~20 miles/hour charging, and could recharge even a thirsty P100D Model S overnight.

That said...I know several new LEAF owners that have skipped the L2 and just squeak by on the L1. :oops:

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by hightower » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:08 am

canon_shooter wrote:Just went through the analysis and am looking for a reason to be talked into the S. I'd love to have a Tesla, but frankly, I can't rationalize paying literally twice the value. The Bolt Premier is about 40K MSRP after shopping around (minus the fast charger at 750). The S is about 75K+ new, or 60K used. Buying new knocks off about 7-10K with all the rebates for both cars. I'd pay maybe 10K premium for the S, but the price differential is too large for me to ignore the Bolt. Don't want to wait 2 years for the Model 3. All my driving is local, SF Bay Area and the 240V charging meets my needs.

Yes, the S is more of a luxury car, but I guess the whole reason I retired at 55 was that I was frugal and maybe it's working against me :-)

Pining for the S, but opting for the Bolt.


I would make sure to go and do some test driving of both before making up your mind. The chevy is going to feel cheap compared to the Tesla, probably quite dramatically. I was torn between going for a Bolt or a BMW i3. After I got the i3 I was SO glad I spent the extra money for the i3. Its a much better made car and feels high quality. BTW, I easily get 140-150 miles range in the i3 in good weather (battery only version). If that's at all close to enough range for you, you should consider the i3 as well. Its priced less than a Model S and has the same luxury feel.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:16 am

just frank wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote:
canon_shooter wrote:Pining for the S, but opting for the Bolt.


Agree with your argument....but I'd get the fast charging package. $750 is not much, and as the network get's built out, it will be more useful. More to the point, I think you'll get the $750 back in resale.

I agree on the fast charger. I'm not up on the details, but I assume that it's not something you (or a subsequent owner) can economically retrofit. The stock charger, adding 4 miles of range per hour of charging, is a deal breaker; in a few years, it will be viewed as comical that anyone offered that on anything bigger than a golf cart. I view it that way now.

Maybe in my old age I've become a hedonist, but on a close call I'd go for the S.


Not to quibble....the 4 mph L1 charger that ships with this thing is intended as an 'emergency' charger, like a spare tire, if you end up somewhere without an L2 charger. My 6kW L2 charger adds ~20 miles/hour charging, and could recharge even a thirsty P100D Model S overnight.

That said...I know several new LEAF owners that have skipped the L2 and just squeak by on the L1. :oops:

That's the part I don't get. In a pinch, I can charge my X on 110V, for example if I'm running my house on generator power. I opted for the 75A charger, rather than the 40A 240V charger, because I hoped to move to a new house shortly and if not, it would be appreciated by whoever bought my car. At 40A, 240V, it charges my car just slightly faster than your L2 (25-30 m/h), but basically they are both perfectly acceptable charging rates.

I think L1 charger is comical. Sorry. It would be like having a gas tank that only works with an eye dropper. It will lead to more people being convinced that EV are impractical.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Wed Apr 12, 2017 7:24 am

TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote:My 6kW L2 charger adds ~20 miles/hour charging, and could recharge even a thirsty P100D Model S overnight.

That's the part I don't get. In a pinch, I can charge my X on 110V, for example if I'm running my house on generator power. I opted for the 75A charger, rather than the 40A 240V charger, because I hoped to move to a new house shortly and if not, it would be appreciated by whoever bought my car. At 40A, 240V, it charges my car just slightly faster than your L2 (25-30 m/h), but basically they are both perfectly acceptable charging rates.


It is helpful to compare it all the same way.

just frank has 6 kW charging
TomatoTomahto usually does 9.6 kW charging, but has the option for (adjusted since its 72a, not 75a) 17.28 kW charging
My older car usually does 9.6 kW, but can also do 19.2 kW (80a)*.

Meanwhile, at work I'm stuck with 6 kW charging and there are many days my 85 doesn't finish charging during my shift. Not a problem as I have plenty to get home and back to work the next day, but I still look at 6 kW as painful if I was dependent on it.

* I actually get a bit more since at home, I have 250v service instead of 240v used in the calculations.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by HeadHunter » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:43 am

My 2016 Mercedes diesel gets over 1,000 km a tank and I can do a 12 hour day on a serious road trip with only one stop to fill up. I LOVE range!!!!

I AM thinking about a plug in hybrid as a second vehicle ONLY to get access to the HOV lane during my commute. Even though I can afford a Tesla I would lean towards the new Volt. I've driven the Model S and found the seat very uncomfortable. A friend who owns one complains about backaches after driving it. Love the acceleration though, wow!

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:56 am

adjusted since its 72a, not 75a

I'm pretty sure I knew that, but not at 6:16 am :D

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Wed Apr 12, 2017 10:37 am

HeadHunter wrote:I AM thinking about a plug in hybrid as a second vehicle ONLY to get access to the HOV lane during my commute. Even though I can afford a Tesla I would lean towards the new Volt. I've driven the Model S and found the seat very uncomfortable. A friend who owns one complains about backaches after driving it. Love the acceleration though, wow!


The Volt is a fine car if it meets your needs. As for Model S seats, please be aware there are a couple different versions of seats, so your friend may be complaining about one and another be just fine for your needs.
  • Generation 1.0 - Original seats with short headrest far leaned back from the seat
  • Generation 1.5 - introduced late-2014 or mid-2015. Looks just like 1.0, but headrests are taller and angled forward (so you don't lean your head back to use them). Also has much more cushioning in the bottom
  • Generation 2.0 - a.k.a. "next generation seats". Redesigned. Significant bolstering. May be a bit tight if you have a wide frame (they dig into my back under my shoulder blades). However, generally accepted by many to be a big improvement. Described as you being IN the seat vs. 1.0 and 1.5 being ON the seat.
  • Generation 3 - a.k.a. "Model X seats". Now available on both Model X and Model S. Much better layout of bolstering and cushioning. Adjustable headrests (all prior versions were fixed). The cushions have give so you sink in slightly before you reach the bolstering. IMO, Volvo-level comfort.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by btenny » Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:59 am

Just went through Beatty, Nevada last week and saw a big new Tesla Fast charger station there. It had about 6 charger stations. Two of them were in use. That place is out in the desert east of Death Valley and north of Vegas so I was surprised. That is really the back of nowhere. From this article I guess Nevada is putting in several fast charger stations to make it easier to drive around the state. I guess that is also to support the battery factory in Reno.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/ ... in-beatty/
https://www.google.com/maps/uv?hl=en&pb ... oQoioIbTAP

Good Luck.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:14 pm

Yes btenny, that's one of 12 supercharger locations in Nevada open today. There are also charging stations nearby for non-Tesla electric vehicles (Beatty RV Park). There are 8 chargers in the Beatty Supercharger location.

For some reason, North Dakota is a holdout. Afaik, it's the only one of the 48 states without a supercharger.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by roflwaffle » Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:06 pm

I'd wait... Not for either car actually. To me, it's crazy how fast/far cars are improving. Odds are, the longer you wait, the more car you'll get, probably for less cash, although the fed tax credit expiring/being repealed could change that in a hurry.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:27 pm

roflwaffle wrote:I'd wait... Not for either car actually. To me, it's crazy how fast/far cars are improving. Odds are, the longer you wait, the more car you'll get, probably for less cash, although the fed tax credit expiring/being repealed could change that in a hurry.

This is similar to waiting for a better laptop or mobile phone. The technology is always moving forward, and Tesla makes improvements continuously, so if you want one, you have to jump in at some point. What you have will be obsolete within a few months at most, but if you're like most Tesla owners, you'll love every minute in your obsolete car.

I bought a MS 70D in late 2015, and yearn for a MS 100D, but still am super happy with my 70D. Actually, I wouldn't trade up to a 100D until autopilot is at least at parity with my 70D, which is not yet the case.

Kevin
||.......|| Suggested format for Asking Portfolio Questions (edit original post)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by jbran99 » Wed Apr 12, 2017 1:42 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:For some reason, North Dakota is a holdout. Afaik, it's the only one of the 48 states without a supercharger.

Arkansas doesn't have a supercharger quite yet. Their first is currently under construction on the southwest side of Little Rock. Superchargers in Memphis and Texarkana are on the TN & TX sides of the borders, respectively. https://supercharge.info/ is the go-to spot for Tesla Supercharger info.

Edit to add: Wheeling/Triadelphia WV is the opposite - that location just barely gives WV (coal country as it is) a supercharger of its own. (Though two more are planned, for Morgantown and Charleston.)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Easy Rhino » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:18 pm

BrandonBogle wrote:but I still look at 6 kW as painful if I was dependent on it.


Oh man, I've got a Chevy Spark that has only a 3.3kwh charger. Not only that, but I exclusively charge it in my 120v outlet at home. You would just absolutely die :beer

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by canbonbon » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:20 pm

Most people I know who drive a Tesla lease them. Even though the lease rates are actually pretty bad, but they still do for primarily two reasons:

1) They have some sort of business (or other arrangements) that allow them to get that lease payment as a deduction. I think this one is primary. Which is actually true for most luxury cars.
2) The battery tech is changing so fast that even if we don't get solid state battery soon, in a few years, even with current battery tech we will see smaller batteries that can hold the charges longer and most importantly cheaper. But that does not necessarily mean anything for Tesla buyers because Tesla will *never* reduce the price of the car. They probably will give you more range, more tech, more bells and whistles which will help justify the cost.

So it all depends on your needs. If you have an immediate need, you need to get what's available. If he/she is not in line for M3, its going to be a while before they can get one. If they can wait, then that's good. If cannot, they can either come up with $$ to get some other Tesla (MS or MX) or try their luck with some other brand. Unfortunately no one offers a decent car with 200+ range. Leaf's new version should hit the market around Sep/Oct this year which might do that. Others are all so below it that it is not even worth to consider them. I am in the same boat but I just cannot buy a Bolt. Just cannot go past its looks for some reason. Others are free to disagree. At the same time, I don't want to pay over 100K for MX. So I am stuck for now. Maybe I will never be able to buy a *new* Tesla (maybe try to get a used one in future) and would depend on other cost conscious manufacturers to come up something for the rest of us. But I have a lot of interest in electric cars and keenly follow their development and eventual rollout. I have pledged to myself that my next car will be electric. I am currently still running my 16 yr old Mercedes because it works great.

Sorry I had to edit my post because Chevy announced a $309/month for 36 months lease for Bolt. You can read more here:
https://leasehackr.com/blog/2016/11/21/ ... -309-month
Last edited by canbonbon on Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by canbonbon » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:37 pm

Another thing about Range is that one magazine recently did an article on it why 250 miles is a good range. The pretty much attributed it to lack of charging infrastructure. However, the calculation they came up with was something like this:

On an average families drive no more than 2-3 hours (one way) to do day trips. So that roughly translates to about 125 miles (give or take) or 5-6 hours total trip (250 miles). e.g. to camping site, to the mountains, lakes, amusement parks, etc. If it is more than that, then they try to stay overnight and then that would not be a day trip. When they go for longer trip (more than a day trip) they would plan for charging, longer stays at charge stations, etc. But for day trips, they just want to go and come back and not deal with the hassle of charging at the destination. e.g if someone drives from Boston to Six Flags in Springfield, there is no charging facility at the Six flags parking area. The nearest towns have it but then you have to go there and wait till it charges. In future, when companies (just like six flags or parking garages, campsites, tourist attractions) would have chargers in parking lots, then the range anxiety could actually decrease. But for now, it is a major concern and the manufacturers should work to address that on both fronts. Add more charging infrastructure and increase the range of the car. That will get range out of the equation. This will take a few years and will also depend on the adoption rate of electric cars. But for now, 250 miles of range is here to stay.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Wed Apr 12, 2017 2:42 pm

Easy Rhino wrote:
BrandonBogle wrote:but I still look at 6 kW as painful if I was dependent on it.


Oh man, I've got a Chevy Spark that has only a 3.3kwh charger. Not only that, but I exclusively charge it in my 120v outlet at home. You would just absolutely die :beer


I spent the first 4 months of Model S ownership with only 120v charging @ 12 amps, so 1.4 kW. Overnight I would only get 30-40 miles. It made planning for trips very tricky. Long term, it was not a viable solution for day-to-day use -- only for occasional use and emergencies. Ever since getting a NEMA 14-50 installed in my garage, I have not been concerned about trips, even at the edge of my range.

For instance, there is a friend I visit about two hours away occasionally. Charged to 100%, I can go there, spend the night there, and come back all on one charge, arriving home at less than 10%, sometimes less than 5% if there is snow on the ground. At 120v charging at home, I stopped at the Supercharger on the way home to pick up a charge (we didn't stay overnight there that time). Had I not stopped for that top off (only 15 minutes), even overnight at 120v would have been insufficient to get me to work the next morning. I am glad to no longer worry about that. I can get home on electronic fumes and still be ready to go elsewhere shortly -- even with an hour.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by cookiez » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:43 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:That's the part I don't get. In a pinch, I can charge my X on 110V, for example if I'm running my house on generator power. I opted for the 75A charger, rather than the 40A 240V charger, because I hoped to move to a new house shortly and if not, it would be appreciated by whoever bought my car. At 40A, 240V, it charges my car just slightly faster than your L2 (25-30 m/h), but basically they are both perfectly acceptable charging rates.

I think L1 charger is comical. Sorry. It would be like having a gas tank that only works with an eye dropper. It will lead to more people being convinced that EV are impractical.


I'm a Leaf 2013 S owner without QC. I use L1 at home all the time. I'm leasing so I can't modify the garage so 110V is as good as it goes. And, Leaf comes with the L1 charger as standard, L2 requires another investment of maybe $600?

And, my Leaf has 24kwh battery. Even if I depleted the poor thing in the day, it'll likely go full the next day (it probably takes 16h to go from 0 to 100%). If I plug it in at 7pm, by 9am it's almost full since I have never had the battery under 5%. L2 really is overkill in this case.

That said, I do appreciate the L2 chargers on the road. Helps me to refill during my day trips to the city. I got 3.6kw from L2 which means 16% or 12 miles per hour. Could really save the day while we are visiting a museum or having lunch.

cookiez
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by cookiez » Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:47 pm

BrandonBogle wrote:I spent the first 4 months of Model S ownership with only 120v charging @ 12 amps, so 1.4 kW. Overnight I would only get 30-40 miles. It made planning for trips very tricky. Long term, it was not a viable solution for day-to-day use -- only for occasional use and emergencies. Ever since getting a NEMA 14-50 installed in my garage, I have not been concerned about trips, even at the edge of my range.

For instance, there is a friend I visit about two hours away occasionally. Charged to 100%, I can go there, spend the night there, and come back all on one charge, arriving home at less than 10%, sometimes less than 5% if there is snow on the ground. At 120v charging at home, I stopped at the Supercharger on the way home to pick up a charge (we didn't stay overnight there that time). Had I not stopped for that top off (only 15 minutes), even overnight at 120v would have been insufficient to get me to work the next morning. I am glad to no longer worry about that. I can get home on electronic fumes and still be ready to go elsewhere shortly -- even with an hour.


Yes, I think there is this life style issue. We are 2 car family. Leaf + Odyssey. I use Leaf for commute. Wife use Odyssey to pick up kid and other tasks. We do weekend day trips with Leaf if possible. Otherwise Odyssey is the range-anxiety-free and much more comfortable solution for hours of drive.

Valuethinker
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:59 am

Kevin M wrote:
roflwaffle wrote:I'd wait... Not for either car actually. To me, it's crazy how fast/far cars are improving. Odds are, the longer you wait, the more car you'll get, probably for less cash, although the fed tax credit expiring/being repealed could change that in a hurry.

This is similar to waiting for a better laptop or mobile phone.


A laptop costs $1000? A phone $600?

What's really different is the quantum of cost & use (it might argue for a leasing solution).

The technology is always moving forward, and Tesla makes improvements continuously, so if you want one, you have to jump in at some point. What you have will be obsolete within a few months at most, but if you're like most Tesla owners, you'll love every minute in your obsolete car.

I bought a MS 70D in late 2015, and yearn for a MS 100D, but still am super happy with my 70D. Actually, I wouldn't trade up to a 100D until autopilot is at least at parity with my 70D, which is not yet the case.

Kevin


The upgradability to the onboard systems is an attraction.

Everybody has to hit the point on the performance-cost curve. Amongst vehicles, Tesla is only a small part of the eventual way down that curve. Amongst sports car enthusiasts, perhaps further.

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Kevin M
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:54 pm

Valuethinker wrote:
Kevin M wrote:
roflwaffle wrote:I'd wait... Not for either car actually. To me, it's crazy how fast/far cars are improving. Odds are, the longer you wait, the more car you'll get, probably for less cash, although the fed tax credit expiring/being repealed could change that in a hurry.

This is similar to waiting for a better laptop or mobile phone.


A laptop costs $1000? A phone $600?

So what? I was just addressing "the longer you wait, the more you'll get", especially with respect to the rate of technological improvement. On the Tesla forum, we often see people asking whether or not to buy now, or wait for a particular improvement that is known or rumored to be coming soon. This will always be the case with Tesla.

The upgradability to the onboard systems is an attraction.

True. In some ways the car is better than when I bought it, due to over-the-air software updates, but the hardware is continuously improving on the newer cars--I'll never have the additional autopilot hardware that you get if you buy now. It will be even better when I buy my next Tesla.

Kevin
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