Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

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StevieG72
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by StevieG72 » Thu Apr 13, 2017 9:44 pm

BMW i3

Late model used ones are in the $20,000 range.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:14 pm

StevieG72 wrote:BMW i3

Late model used ones are in the $20,000 range.
Wow, I just recently looked at the website of my local BMW dealer and the i3 they had on offer were $50k (new, of course).

letsgobobby
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by letsgobobby » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:35 pm

actually certified 2014 BMW i3s with 18k-21k miles are only $17k-$19k in my area. There's an idea. However I think it's because the 2017s have a battery only range of 114 miles, making the older models far less attractive. And CR says to avoid the 2014 models as they have poor reliability.
Last edited by letsgobobby on Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:39 pm

letsgobobby wrote:actually certified 2014 BMW i3s with 18k-21k miles are only $17k-$19k in my area. There's an idea.
Yeah, I just did some searching. None available locally, but 140 miles away there are several of those 2014s. Presumably fresh off lease?

Problem is I couldn't even drive it home on a full charge ;)

But may still be something to consider.

calif.engineer
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by calif.engineer » Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:31 am

Are you aware that the Chevy Bolt is smaller than the Nissan Leaf? And the article below says it has not been selling very well - less than 1000 vehicles a month for the last couple of months.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/03/w ... s-start-2/

That might mean pretty big discounts coming soon. And I am not sure if Tesla Model 3 can do much better when it comes out. What would it mean for Tesla's stock price if Model 3 sells poorly. That is a much bigger deal for Tesla than the Bolt is for Chevy.

Disclosure: I have owned a 2012 Nissan Leaf for 5+ years, and have 63k miles on it as of now.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:46 am

calif.engineer wrote:And I am not sure if Tesla Model 3 can do much better when it comes out. What would it mean for Tesla's stock price if Model 3 sells poorly.
I don't see that happening. At one point I think there were something like 400,000 reservations for Model 3. Even if there are lots of cancellations, I think the problem is going to be people having to wait for them rather than Tesla not being able to sell as many as they can produce.

I just Googled it and found this reservation tracker: Tesla Model 3 Reservation Counter. Current count is over 530K.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:00 pm

calif.engineer wrote:Are you aware that the Chevy Bolt is smaller than the Nissan Leaf? And the article below says it has not been selling very well - less than 1000 vehicles a month for the last couple of months.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/03/w ... s-start-2/

That might mean pretty big discounts coming soon. And I am not sure if Tesla Model 3 can do much better when it comes out. What would it mean for Tesla's stock price if Model 3 sells poorly. That is a much bigger deal for Tesla than the Bolt is for Chevy.

Disclosure: I have owned a 2012 Nissan Leaf for 5+ years, and have 63k miles on it as of now.
Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.

When I'm in a Tesla I don't feel like there's a high probability of being stranded or at some public charger that won't work or is iced if I'm driving beyond range. And I wouldn't even let my wife (whom I'm very protective of) drive a Bolt beyond the range, knowing that she'd have to try and figure out where the public chargers are and hope they work. And even the charger does OR doesn't work she's still have to sit there for hours charging, wait for a tow, or drive around aimlessly on electric fumes looking for a charge. No thanks, I don't want that anxiety.

Tesla nailed it with the Supercharger buildout, I'd feel confident knowing she could locate and drive to a Supercharger with a high degree of confidence that it will work, not be iced and get a fast charge and be on her way.


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BrandonBogle
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Fri Apr 14, 2017 2:54 pm

squirm wrote: some public charger that won't work or is iced
FYI, ICE'd is EV-slang for when a charger is blocked by a traditional vehicle with an Internal Combustion Engine, preventing the EV-driver from plugging in to charge.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:36 pm

squirm wrote: Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.
Everyone has a somewhat different requirement. For long distance driving (e.g. we are heading out this weekend on a quick road trip to scout Eclipse watching spots) we have a Subaru Forester. It's also our car for deep snow/ice winter days.

Our Prius (non-plugin) is for tooling around town and to neighboring towns (e.g., commute for my wife, 40 miles RT). I plan to replace the Prius with an EV this year or next. My preference would be a Model 3, but timing may not work and we also live 140+ miles from the nearest service center. Bolt was my second choice, but our local Chevy dealer decided to not sell or maintain them (which means we are back to 140+ miles to the nearest service).

Both vehicles would have had sufficient range for us without supercharger network to meet our requirements. Even the current Leaf would suffice, but with a newer better model on the horizon I would rather wait a bit. Trips beyond the 200 mile RT range are pretty rare for us (maybe 2-3 a year), so if we didn't have the winter driving requirement, it would probably more cost effective to rent a long distance capable car as needed instead of owning it.

That said, I completely agree that Tesla's supercharger network is a great advantage. I would hope that the other manufacturers would perhaps team up and build a similar network, maybe in connection with a fossil fuel gas station brand. Looks like in Europe manufacturers are solving the problem together.

https://techcrunch.com/2016/11/29/bmw-d ... g-network/

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TravelGeek » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:37 pm

BrandonBogle wrote:
squirm wrote: some public charger that won't work or is iced
FYI, ICE'd is EV-slang for when a charger is blocked by a traditional vehicle with an Internal Combustion Engine, preventing the EV-driver from plugging in to charge.
How often does that happen in reality? I'd be concerned about the safety of the ICE vehicle if some irate EVer is kept from charging. I know they are mostly nice people, but still...

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:51 pm

TravelGeek wrote:
BrandonBogle wrote:
squirm wrote: some public charger that won't work or is iced
FYI, ICE'd is EV-slang for when a charger is blocked by a traditional vehicle with an Internal Combustion Engine, preventing the EV-driver from plugging in to charge.
How often does that happen in reality? I'd be concerned about the safety of the ICE vehicle if some irate EVer is kept from charging. I know they are mostly nice people, but still...
It doesn't happen often, to me at least. The few times I've encountered it, I ask them how they'd feel if I parked my car at their gas pump, preventing their fill up, and they "get it" and I think won't do it again. One guy just shrugged and insisted it was the last parking spot left, when there were clearly other unoccupied spots, albeit ones with a longer walk to the food court/bathroom.

That's why I prefer super chargers placed at a distance from the business. I don't know handicapped parking should be handled.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:52 pm

TravelGeek wrote:How often does that happen in reality?
It varies greatly from region to region. My city tickets those who are parked in charging spaces without being plugged in (including EVs who just used them as "priority parking"). At my work, it was happening regularly enough even though the spaces has spray paint (like handicap spaces) and signs that they started to boot vehicles on the third offense (first two were warning tickets). After 4 or 5 cars got booted, it all but stopped.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:25 pm

This is the first ICEd supercharger I experienced. Note that the truck and trailer were blocking four of six charging stalls, but fortunately the other two weren't being used, so I was able to charge.

Image

By the time I got back from lunch, the truck was gone.

I've seen one or two other ICEings, but none that prevented me from charging.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:28 pm

Kevin M wrote: I've seen one or two other ICEings, but none that prevented me from charging.
In general, I have found Tesla Superchargers to be ICE'd far less often than public stations. Don't know why that is, but I can't complain.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:39 pm

BrandonBogle wrote: In general, I have found Tesla Superchargers to be ICE'd far less often than public stations. Don't know why that is, but I can't complain.
We passed by several empty EV charging spots in a crowded parking garage when out to lunch yesterday. My wife said, "Let someone who needs them use them". We drove to the top floor of the parking garage and found a nice, empty area where it was unlikely someone would park next to us and ding our doors.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by tweeter » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:46 pm

I would go Bolt. Not only because it's already here but because I am concerned about the future of Tesla motors. There is no guarantee they will be able to deliver on all the pre-orders. I think a Bolt would be more viable in the long run.

Tesla stock is riding a serious hype train right now and is arguably the most over-valued stock on the market. They are still losing money on every car they sell and burn through cash like nobody's business. I am not sure all the hype will be able to sustain itself long term, as the EV market rapidly evolves over the next 2 years. The "big three" automakers are better able to take losses on EV vehicles and can bring products to market quicker. I think the charging infrastructure will evolve as we see more of these vehicles on the road.

Musk is definitely a visionary but I am not sure his companies can compete in the long run. SpaceX caused ULA too be more innovative and to operate more efficiently. However, ULA still has a flawless safety record and SpaceX does not. ULA is on track to narrow the launch price gap and you can bet they will maintain their safety record... Anyway sorry for rambling

Ideally, if your neighbor could wait a couple years, he probably will be faced with more attractive options than the Model 3 or Bolt.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by investor997 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:55 pm

calif.engineer wrote:Are you aware that the Chevy Bolt is smaller than the Nissan Leaf? And the article below says it has not been selling very well - less than 1000 vehicles a month for the last couple of months.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/03/w ... s-start-2/

That might mean pretty big discounts coming soon. And I am not sure if Tesla Model 3 can do much better when it comes out. What would it mean for Tesla's stock price if Model 3 sells poorly. That is a much bigger deal for Tesla than the Bolt is for Chevy.

Disclosure: I have owned a 2012 Nissan Leaf for 5+ years, and have 63k miles on it as of now.
I could be wrong but I think the Bolt is a money loser for GM. If that's the case it might explain why it's been slow to roll out and why they're not advertising it very much. I don't think it's available in all 50 states yet.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:58 pm

squirm wrote: When I'm in a Tesla I don't feel like there's a high probability of being stranded or at some public charger that won't work or is iced if I'm driving beyond range. And I wouldn't even let my wife (whom I'm very protective of) drive a Bolt beyond the range, knowing that she'd have to try and figure out where the public chargers are and hope they work. And even the charger does OR doesn't work she's still have to sit there for hours charging, wait for a tow, or drive around aimlessly on electric fumes looking for a charge. No thanks, I don't want that anxiety.
Dude. There's an app that shows (non-Tesla) fast chargers, and whether they are working or not. https://www.plugshare.com/

If there are a number of FCs in your area that are Bolt compatible (CCS standard), which you would check out before you buy, then its no different than picking a Tesla after you see where the super chargers are at.

I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:05 pm

just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:19 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.
Indeed. Meaning no insult, I think its a function of 'innumeracy'. Some people are comfortable juggling a couple numbers in their head (like which is greater, the distance on their nav system or the range meter on their dash), and trust the result, and some people simply not comfortable dong that. I think the latter group have a lot of range anxiety.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:49 pm

just frank wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.
Indeed. Meaning no insult, I think its a function of 'innumeracy'. Some people are comfortable juggling a couple numbers in their head (like which is greater, the distance on their nav system or the range meter on their dash), and trust the result, and some people simply not comfortable dong that. I think the latter group have a lot of range anxiety.
I find the energy graph incredibly useful. The first time I looked at it, it was intimidating. After a day or two, I left mine taking up half of my screen, and on long trips refer to it often.

For those not familiar with it:
Image

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Apr 14, 2017 5:58 pm

just frank wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.
Indeed. Meaning no insult, I think its a function of 'innumeracy'. Some people are comfortable juggling a couple numbers in their head (like which is greater, the distance on their nav system or the range meter on their dash), and trust the result, and some people simply not comfortable dong that. I think the latter group have a lot of range anxiety.
why would you presume it has something to do with innumeracy as opposed to, say, the number of accessible chargers and the daily driving habits?

I had yet to buy an EV like the Leaf because I'm concerned my daily driving habit would be cutting it very close with the charge. Do I have range anxiety? I'm pretty numerate.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:28 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote: For those not familiar with it:
Image
I miss Firmware 6.x's information density. I was happy to do away with the chrome framing everywhere.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Fri Apr 14, 2017 7:12 pm

letsgobobby wrote:
just frank wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.
Indeed. Meaning no insult, I think its a function of 'innumeracy'. Some people are comfortable juggling a couple numbers in their head (like which is greater, the distance on their nav system or the range meter on their dash), and trust the result, and some people simply not comfortable dong that. I think the latter group have a lot of range anxiety.
why would you presume it has something to do with innumeracy as opposed to, say, the number of accessible chargers and the daily driving habits?

I had yet to buy an EV like the Leaf because I'm concerned my daily driving habit would be cutting it very close with the charge. Do I have range anxiety? I'm pretty numerate.
Again, no offense intended....I would say that the LEAF does not fit your use case (with appropriate margins). But I have met people who will admit their round trip commute is 30 miles, and a 100 mile EV just won't fit the bill.

By innumerate, I simply mean about 50% of the US population who are NOT comfortable juggling numbers in their heads.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:48 pm

just frank wrote:
squirm wrote: When I'm in a Tesla I don't feel like there's a high probability of being stranded or at some public charger that won't work or is iced if I'm driving beyond range. And I wouldn't even let my wife (whom I'm very protective of) drive a Bolt beyond the range, knowing that she'd have to try and figure out where the public chargers are and hope they work. And even the charger does OR doesn't work she's still have to sit there for hours charging, wait for a tow, or drive around aimlessly on electric fumes looking for a charge. No thanks, I don't want that anxiety.
Dude. There's an app that shows (non-Tesla) fast chargers, and whether they are working or not. https://www.plugshare.com/

If there are a number of FCs in your area that are Bolt compatible (CCS standard), which you would check out before you buy, then its no different than picking a Tesla after you see where the super chargers are at.

I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
Again, I wouldn't take the Bolt on a long distance trip. First, I wouldn't want to rely on Plugshare. Second if it actually finds a working L2 charger that isn't iced, ok, but then I have to wait hours while the Bolt chargers. Again I'd rather go to the Superchargers.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:50 pm

just frank wrote:
letsgobobby wrote:
just frank wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.
Indeed. Meaning no insult, I think its a function of 'innumeracy'. Some people are comfortable juggling a couple numbers in their head (like which is greater, the distance on their nav system or the range meter on their dash), and trust the result, and some people simply not comfortable dong that. I think the latter group have a lot of range anxiety.
why would you presume it has something to do with innumeracy as opposed to, say, the number of accessible chargers and the daily driving habits?

I had yet to buy an EV like the Leaf because I'm concerned my daily driving habit would be cutting it very close with the charge. Do I have range anxiety? I'm pretty numerate.
Again, no offense intended....I would say that the LEAF does not fit your use case (with appropriate margins). But I have met people who will admit their round trip commute is 30 miles, and a 100 mile EV just won't fit the bill.

By innumerate, I simply mean about 50% of the US population who are NOT comfortable juggling numbers in their heads.
I have a friend who drives Leaf, but only around town and to work that is about 15 miles away from him. Seems to work for him as long as he doens't go out of range. But again, would anyone buy a ICE car with a disclaimer that you can't take it on a long range trip?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Sandi_k » Sat Apr 15, 2017 2:59 pm

My husband bought a Bolt 2 weeks ago. He did opt for the QC option.

We've been using it exclusively on our joint jaunts on the weekend; the 230-mile range is pretty good for that. However, it is not sufficient for a weekend trip to see our families (4-6 hours away). As a result, though I do most of the driving (long commute, 4 days per week) I will not replace my current gas car with an EV. One of us has to have a range-anxiety-free car. :?

I would be very interested in an EV that had a range of 400 miles - that would make weekend trips possible, and then I would be very likely to buy an EV for my next car (and save $400 per month in gas costs!).

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:10 pm

squirm wrote:I have a friend who drives Leaf, but only around town and to work that is about 15 miles away from him. Seems to work for him as long as he doens't go out of range. But again, would anyone buy a ICE car with a disclaimer that you can't take it on a long range trip?
I wouldn't buy an ICE vehicle that can't promise being full when I wake up the morning :wink:

Everyone has different use cases. It's good if honest and accurate data is available for people to judge which cars work for them.

Personally, I can do the round trip to son's college without a charge, or if necessary (it's really cold, I have a heavy foot, or want to go to some out-of-the-way lunch), a 15 minute top off at a Supercharger is fine. Other son's college requires a half hour charge in Albany, right by the LL Bean store and Cheesecake Factory, or in Newburgh with some good Italian food.

I miss the carefree, a gas station is usually no more than 10 minutes away situation. Otoh, I would miss the always full in the morning and free refills on the road even more. Quite literally, ymmv.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by madbrain » Sun Apr 16, 2017 5:23 pm

Sandi_k wrote:My husband bought a Bolt 2 weeks ago. He did opt for the QC option.

We've been using it exclusively on our joint jaunts on the weekend; the 230-mile range is pretty good for that. However, it is not sufficient for a weekend trip to see our families (4-6 hours away). As a result, though I do most of the driving (long commute, 4 days per week) I will not replace my current gas car with an EV. One of us has to have a range-anxiety-free car. :?

I would be very interested in an EV that had a range of 400 miles - that would make weekend trips possible, and then I would be very likely to buy an EV for my next car (and save $400 per month in gas costs!).
My husband has been driving the Bolt for 3 months - fully loaded. It's a very nice car. We don't take many road trips. His family is local. Mine is 6000 miles away and is not a drivable trip. When we do drive long distance, it is mostly from Northern to southern California. There is a lack of CCS DC fast chargers currently between those two places - none on I-5 especially. One would have to take a longer route in order to be able to charge in the Bolt. It's doable, but really less than ideal. So, we won't be taking the Bolt on road trips either until the CCS charging locations improve.

For those trips, we can take my Volt, which is a very capable PHEV . I think this is the best of both worlds, really - one Volt and one Bolt - if both vehicles fit your family size. Our 2015 Volt is only a 4 seater. The 2017 Volt has a slightly less intrusive console, but still technically a 4-seater. You can't load large things into the Volt either, but you can in the Bolt. I recently picked up a 32 bottle wine cooler in the Bolt, and had other things in the car too. I couldn't have done it in the Volt.

I hope Chevy will improve the Volt in future model years so that it can be a true 5-seater.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by madbrain » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:12 pm

just frank wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:
just frank wrote: I still don't 'get' range anxiety. :?
I don't get it either, but I guess some people don't look at their fuel gauges until the lights come on.
Indeed. Meaning no insult, I think its a function of 'innumeracy'. Some people are comfortable juggling a couple numbers in their head (like which is greater, the distance on their nav system or the range meter on their dash), and trust the result, and some people simply not comfortable dong that. I think the latter group have a lot of range anxiety.
IMO, you are coming entirely to the wrong conclusion. I'm an engineer and I'm quite comfortable with numbers.
However, range meters, or more accurately "guess-o-meters" (GOM) as they are known in the EV world, do not come with a built-in time machines, and simply can't predict what the driving conditions will be next. Each GOM has a different algorithm, but usually they are based on the conditions for the X previous miles driven (or X minutes), and the remaining estimated capacity of the battery.

In my Leaf I have seen the GOM number actually increase going to work from a full charge, from about 70 miles to 75 miles. This was quite common.
Then, on the return trip, it would drop from 75 to between 20-25. Each trip was 13.3 miles, driving exactly the same roads at the same speeds (within the speed limit). What was the difference ? Mainly 2 :
- temperature, I typically drive to work fairly late in the day, afternoon time, when it's warm, and don't use climate control. But when I return, I drive when it's dark, and sometimes cold, and I use the heater
- slope. My commute to work is mostly downhill. I live on top of a 15% slope hill. That means negative energy is used when I go downhill (regeneration) and huge amount of energy when I go uphill. The last 0.5 mile / 600ft elevation uphill typically takes between 0.6 kWh and 1 kWh, in any EV that I have driven (2012 Leaf, 2015 Volt, 2017 Bolt). Basically, it's no more than 1 mile/kWh for that stretch

Even you use the car's GPS to set your destination, the GOM in the 2012 Leaf or 2015 Volt did not take elevation and slope into consideration. In fact, the GPS destination does not in any way affect the estimated range on the GOM. The only thing the GPS is used for is a very simplistic A<B comparison - strictly comparing the number on the GOM and the distance on the GPS - the Leaf would tell me for example "you do not have enough battery to make it to your destination" - I then would slow down a little bit and actually make it.
There is no such message in the Volt since there is usually gas backup. I have actually driven the Volt on empty (zero gas) but it's not a fun experience (acceleration is seriously throttled!) - different subject, though. Not sure if there is any such message there at all.

There are many, many ways that GOMs could be improved.
1) know the elevation and slope of hills along the GPS route, and use them in the GOM calculation, and not just distance calculation
2) use the weather/temperature along the predicted route to know when I will need to turn on climate control ahead of time (say: program the car to have interior at no less than 72 at night time and no more than 68 daytime) . AC use doesn't have much impact, but heater use can drop range by 30% easily. There is no recapture of heat from an internal combustion engine, so heat can be quite expensive.
3) learning . For the commute, the GOM could actually learn how much energy it takes me every day to go to work and return home - those are hugely different numbers, about 1:2 relatively. This only helps if GPS destination is set.
4) more learning . The GOM could learn the driver's habits also in terms of freeway speed, and in combination with the GPS, more accurately estimate kWh needed

Ultimately, there are many unpredictable factors that just cannot be programmed, though:
5) accident/traffic. If an entire freeway is closed due to a sudden accident, and you have to be rerouted differently, then that will hugely affect range
6) if there is roadwork at night with just one freeway lane open, with very slow traffic, at 1-2am, and it's 30F outside and I have to have heat. This has actually happened to me before
7) if you are distracted and happen to miss your exit , or the particular freeway exit is closed (see construction above) - suddenly, you may not be able to make it your destination anymore, if there isn't a charge when you end up

Anyway, my point is that it's very misguided to blame innumerate drivers for "range anxiety". I think the term "range reality" is much more accurate. The fact is that the range is not exactly predictable , just like your exact gasoline consumption is not predictable. If you have a small battery or fuel tank, then even a small error in the estimation can be the difference between making it or not making it.

I get about 3.2 miles/kWh average in the Volt, and 29 MPG on gasoline, well short of the 37 MPG EPA estimate. The EPA estimate completely fails to account for hills and climate control, which makes it a very bad indicator for me. I also tend to drive 10 miles above the speed limit on average. But when I had the Leaf, I was driving 0-5 miles below, since the battery was so limiting. And now with the Volt (and Bolt) I am back to my regular 10 MPH, like I was previously with ICE.

The most range I got in the 2012 Leaf on a single charge was about 65 miles round trip, starting with 100% SOC and driving back to my garage with 3% SOC, as shown by an OBDII app on my smartphone - since the car itself only shows the useless GOM and very vague capacity and charge bars. This was on a summer day, mostly freeway trip, with lots of hills up and down, at 60-65 mph. If I had gotten below 2.5% SOC, the car would have gone to "turtle" mode, and the electric motor's power would have been limited, which means I would very likely have been unable to climb that 15% slope hill for the last 0.5 miles to get back to my garage. This is as close I ever cut it . In the winter, best range was about 55 miles.

I think if there was an ICE vehicle for sale out there with a 2 gallon gasoline tank and 30-40 MPG, they would have very similar problems to what the low range EVs do. You would have to add a range estimate on them - GOM - which would be inaccurate by definition. However, running out of gas on an ICE is less of a problem as it's much easier to find a nearby gas station than an available, working, DC fast charger using the specific technology compatible with your car (either CCS, Chademo, or Tesla). Of course, there is no reason for such an ICE vehicle to exist. The size of the gasoline tank does not change the production cost much, unlike the battery size.

I think the small range EVs are overall a bad idea. Even though they are adequate for strict commute, the moment you add some errands to the grocery store, doctor, restaurant, movie theater, etc, they can become problematic. My work commute is only 26 miles roundtrip, which in theory is ideal for the Leaf. However, my primary doctor is a 30 miles roundtrip from home. I used to have another provider that was 40 miles roundtrip. Costco is 25 miles roundtrip. The closest movie theater is 10 miles roundtrip, but most are at least 25 miles roundtrip. Downtown is about 12 miles roundtrip, but I still take the freeway to get there quicker since I don't want to go through 40 traffic lights (actual count), gym is 24 miles roundtrip, etc. Now, those numbers are not necessarily fully additive (for example, doctor and office are not very far), but sometimes they are - I will come home to pick up my husband to go to the restaurant and theater together, we are not going to take 2 cars. With the Gen1 Volt and its EPA 40 mile range, I can basically handle only my 26 round trip commute in the winter with heat in the evening, and come home with a near-empty battery. So even one errand entails using gasoline, or charging the car at work at 33 cents/kWh (which is more than gas cost per mile). Now, we just use the Bolt for joint errands, so almost don't use any gas at all in a typical week - I charge at work if I have a near-empty battery so I can make it home without gas. In the past, if I came home from work with an empty 2012 Leaf or 2015 Volt battery, we would take the 2011 Prius and drive gas. Now, the 2011 Prius has been replaced with the 2017 Bolt. I never thought we would be an all-GM, all-Chevy EV household, but here we are.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by madbrain » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:25 pm

calif.engineer wrote:Are you aware that the Chevy Bolt is smaller than the Nissan Leaf? And the article below says it has not been selling very well - less than 1000 vehicles a month for the last couple of months.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/04/03/w ... s-start-2/
I think the slow Bolt sales are mainly due to the limited rollout in only a few states. If Chevy had been shipping them to all 50 states, you would likely be seeing much higher sales numbers.

I had a 2012 Leaf (leased, now returned) and now we own a 2017 Bolt jointly. The exterior of the Bolt is definitely smaller than the Leaf.

However, the interior is actually larger in the Bolt than the Leaf ! Personally, I care more about interior space than exterior.

See http://www.motortrend.com/news/2017-che ... ve-review/
At 94.4 cubic feet, its interior passenger volume is said to be larger than that of a Nissan Leaf.
Also, more specific dimensions :
http://www.thecarconnection.com/car-com ... _leaf_2016

Passenger volume for the Leaf is shown as 92.4 cubic feet.

Exterior length of the Bolt is 11 inches shorter than the Leaf, but that actually is an advantage, IMO, makes it easier to park. It is higher off the ground, however.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by randomguy » Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:30 pm

investor997 wrote: I could be wrong but I think the Bolt is a money loser for GM. If that's the case it might explain why it's been slow to roll out and why they're not advertising it very much. I don't think it's available in all 50 states yet.
Money loser is a tough thing to qualify. There were articles years back about the volt being subsidized by like 40k per unit. But they included all the development costs in that. If you looked at it as a per unit basis, the Volt was slightly profitable.

The bolt is complicated in that some states give out big ZEV credits (think 15k/car). If you have limited production, are you going to sell the cars in the states where you get them or the ones where none are available? Or maybe they don't want to do a huge roll out until they get the bugs out of the cars (see every Tesla car so far)? And heck GM might have screwed up. They might have planned on making 50k/year and expected to sell all of them in ZEV states for the first 2 years but in reality the demand in those states turned out to be only say 25k. As outsiders we end up making guesses and a lot of times those guesses are influenced by our viewpoints.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by randomguy » Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:39 pm

squirm wrote:
Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.
Not being able to drive 200+ miles on charge is defective in the same ways as not being able to go from 0-60 in 3s, carry a sheet of plywood in the back, carry 8 people, run for .25/mile, and so on are. They matter to some people but not all. I went 7+ years with only 2 trips over 150miles. Other people make 150mile trips every day. Trying to impose your requirements on every one is just stupid.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Sun Apr 16, 2017 7:54 pm

@madbrain, I think we have a lot of the same experiences with the LEAF. I am just seeing the glass as half full. If I have to reroute, my phone nav tells me the new mileage, I juggle that with my knowledge of GOM behavior wrt to topography and speed, and figure out my margin. Most trips I take have 30-40 miles margin w/o eco mode, and still 20 miles after contingencies...like sudden blizzards while at the limits of my normal range, and needing to climb 600' in snow on the highway to get home. In that case plan A is 'put it in ECO' to buy another 5 miles of range, plan B is limit speed to 60 mph, and plan C is stop at an L2 on the way. I have never needed plan B or C in >3 years driving.

My 2013 has the better battery than the 2012. We get >80 miles all the time when not driving on the highway (often, around here). I suspect that if your LEAF had 20 miles more real range you would feel a bit differently. It seems that a lot of 2012 and earlier LEAF owners are ticked off. I guess the utility function is pretty steep around 80-100 miles.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Iorek » Sun Apr 16, 2017 10:48 pm

randomguy wrote:
squirm wrote:
Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.
Not being able to drive 200+ miles on charge is defective in the same ways as not being able to go from 0-60 in 3s, carry a sheet of plywood in the back, carry 8 people, run for .25/mile, and so on are. They matter to some people but not all. I went 7+ years with only 2 trips over 150miles. Other people make 150mile trips every day. Trying to impose your requirements on every one is just stupid.
+1 We are a one car family with a 90 mile range EV and an L1 charger and it's perfect for us. It's true that once or twice we've rented a car for a long weekend trip, but that costs about $75 and it's no different than renting a van for the one time a year you are moving large amounts of stuff/people rather than buying a van for that one time a year.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by madbrain » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:46 am

just frank wrote:@madbrain, I think we have a lot of the same experiences with the LEAF. I am just seeing the glass as half full. If I have to reroute, my phone nav tells me the new mileage, I juggle that with my knowledge of GOM behavior wrt to topography and speed, and figure out my margin. Most trips I take have 30-40 miles margin w/o eco mode, and still 20 miles after contingencies...like sudden blizzards while at the limits of my normal range, and needing to climb 600' in snow on the highway to get home. In that case plan A is 'put it in ECO' to buy another 5 miles of range, plan B is limit speed to 60 mph, and plan C is stop at an L2 on the way. I have never needed plan B or C in >3 years driving.

My 2013 has the better battery than the 2012. We get >80 miles all the time when not driving on the highway (often, around here). I suspect that if your LEAF had 20 miles more real range you would feel a bit differently. It seems that a lot of 2012 and earlier LEAF owners are ticked off. I guess the utility function is pretty steep around 80-100 miles.
Frankly, I was more than ticked with the 2012 Leaf. It was my first EV. I never knew how much the heater would affect the range before I leased it. Nor did I have any idea how much the hills would. Neither ever seemed to have much of an impact on the mileage of my 2007 Prius, the car the Leaf replaced. In fact, the 2007 Prius got better gasoline mileage when I moved farther away from work in 2010 into the hills - from about 42 MPG to 46 MPG average, and 1-way commute from 3 miles to 13. My Prius always had better on the freeway than in city traffic (probably my lead foot accelerating from green lights!) and the the new commute involved freeway, which the old commute did not.
Anyway, the Leaf was by far the worst car I ever owned. I should never have leased it. I kept it only 32 of the 39 months of my lease to replace with it with the Volt, even though I had make all the remaining payments. But at least I saved on the 4th year registration - NMAC got stuck with that.

I have never done plan C (stop at L2) but I did go to SF - roundtrip 110 miles - with plan D, which was to stop at a DC fast charger. But I had to do so twice, once in South SF on the way, and another in Redwood city on the way back, due to the location of the chargers (none at destination in SF itself at the time) and the fact that the return trip always uses more kWh. And of course, driving in SF downtown is hilly and a battery killer. That turns what's normally a 2h15mn roundtrip drive driving fast in an ICE, into a nearly 4h drive, including driving no more than 60mph on the freeway, and the two DC fast charging stops. We quickly learned to take the Prius for those trips to SF ! Even the 2015 Volt going to SF would use about the same amount of gasoline - after running out of EV battery, the Volt gas mileage was much worse than the 2011 Prius. Now, we'll take the Bolt to SF - we haven't done so yet since we bought it. On saturday, my husband made a 260 miles trip to Sacramento - he took my Volt for this trip. Onstar shows that he used 6 gallons of gas (started full at 8.5, finished at 2.5). On such a long trip, the Volt pretty much nailed its EPA estimates.
He has never charged his Bolt at a public charger yet and wouldn't know how/where to look for one yet. I have yet to show him Plugshare, the Onstar app, and all the EV goodies. Even the Juicenet app for home charging is not on his phone. The Bolt has been charged at home only so far. I think the Bolt could easily have made the trip to Sacramento with some planning on a couple spots to charge, but there was no time for me to impart my knowledge - he was already halfway there when I woke up on Saturday afternoon.

Given how useless the EPA range estimate it if one is using the heater, and isn't driving 100% flat terrain, I think it would take a car with much more than 110 EPA range estimate to do that trip to SF - more like 140 miles EPA. Frankly, I think the existing EPA range estimate test should be scrapped altogether. Especially since it's a single range number for both city and freeway. Even gasoline cars have 2 separate city and freeway MPG numbers ! For EVs, the EPA gives 2 useless MPGe numbers, but not two range numbers ! And of course, none of the tests - for ICE or EVs - take heat or terrain into account.

I have never driven the Leaf in snow - no such weather in the bay area, or much below freezing (28F is probably the lowest I have experienced here, driving late at night). BTW, in my experience, ECO mode doesn't help at all when climbing - I would say it's the opposite, it pulls the car back way too soon, and then you have to accelerate to continue. At least that's true on my 15% grade hill going home each day. Same problem with Volt and Bolt L mode. You really want to use D mode when climbing, IMO, and you want to keep your foot on the accelerator the whole time to at least keep speed constant (but you can't use cruise control since it starts at 25mph and that's too fast for this hill, and also cruise control is very erratic going uphill - try it for a good scare!). ECO and L modes are great when going downhill, to get plenty of regen, but only if your battery is not at 100% (which it usually is). The Bolt has a "hilltop reserve" option for this. 2012 Leaf only had 80% or 100% charge options. They got rid of the 80% option in later models. The Volt has no such reserve option; only a 100% charge option. However, the usable battery capacity is only about 12 kWh out of the 16 kWh - the rest is reserved. So regen is still possible even with a "full" charge. Funny thing is : when I go downhill in the Volt with a full charge, the screen counts the first 0.6 miles as "gasoline" miles. And no, the gasoline engine does not come on at all. The kWh used since last charge shown on the screen do not go negative, however, they stay at 0. I can then usually drive all the way to the freeway on about 0.2 kWh if I don't hit red lights - and that is about 3 miles of driving, ie. 15 miles/kWh average. Return trip from the freeway uses about 2 kWh on the dash, or 10x as much. Clearly there is some hidden regen going somewhere when I depart with my Volt "fully charged". The Onstar telematics data for those regular commute days show only EV miles, no gas miles, unlike the screen data.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Kevin M » Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:19 am

madbrain wrote: However, range meters, or more accurately "guess-o-meters" (GOM) as they are known in the EV world, do not come with a built-in time machines, and simply can't predict what the driving conditions will be next. Each GOM has a different algorithm, but usually they are based on the conditions for the X previous miles driven (or X minutes), and the remaining estimated capacity of the battery.

<snip>
- temperature, I typically drive to work fairly late in the day, afternoon time, when it's warm, and don't use climate control. But when I return, I drive when it's dark, and sometimes cold, and I use the heater
- slope. My commute to work is mostly downhill. I live on to;p of a 15% slope hill. That means negative energy is used when I go downhill (regeneration) and huge amount of energy when I go uphill. The last 0.5 mile / 600ft elevation uphill typically takes between 0.6 kWh and 1 kWh, in any EV that I have driven (2012 Leaf, 2015 Volt, 2017 Bolt).
<snip>
Even you use the car's GPS to set your destination, the GOM in the 2012 Leaf or 2015 Volt did not take elevation and slope into consideration. In fact, the GPS destination does not in any way affect the estimated range on the GOM.
Since this is a Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt thread, I'll point out that the energy consumption estimation for a trip in a Tesla is quite a bit more sophisticated, and does take changes in elevation into account. You can even see it as changes in slope of energy consumption on the energy app you can bring up on the large screen--even showing increases in energy for downhill segments. I would not call it a GOM.

Not sure about temperature, but even for trips in 30 degree weather I've found the energy consumption estimates are quite accurate, as long as you don't drive too much over the speed limit.

You can even view your actual energy consumption graphically compared to the projected energy consumption on the big-screen energy app if you want, and there's also a numerical display of energy remaining at destination shown in the driving directions. The latter is all you really need, so now I only bring up the energy app for fun.

The main variable not taken into account is air speed, which is a combination of ground speed and relative wind velocity (speed and direction). This is usually easily controlled by adjusting driving speed. If you see your estimated range at destination dropping below the buffer you're comfortable with, you just slow down. I usually drive about 10 mph over the speed limit, and usually by slowing down to the speed limit or five over, I can keep my buffer at an acceptable level if it gets lower than I like.

I like a buffer of 20% (about 48 miles of rated range in my MS70D), and slow down if it drops below 10% if I'm still pretty far from my destination. This always has worked great for me.

Someone developed a free app that you can bring up on the browser on the large screen that shows wind velocity and elevation change graphically, as well as air speed. This can be used to determine if wind velocity is a contributing factor if you see that your energy consumption is greater than estimated by the trip planner.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by squirm » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:42 pm

randomguy wrote:
squirm wrote:
Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.
Not being able to drive 200+ miles on charge is defective in the same ways as not being able to go from 0-60 in 3s, carry a sheet of plywood in the back, carry 8 people, run for .25/mile, and so on are. They matter to some people but not all. I went 7+ years with only 2 trips over 150miles. Other people make 150mile trips every day. Trying to impose your requirements on every one is just stupid.
I don't think I know anyone that drove less than 150 mi trip in seven months. You must be in the very small minority. Saying you want a pickup or want 0-60 in 3 seconds is one thing, but saying most people don't care about fast, easy and anxiety free long distance charging is stupid.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by jackholloway » Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:58 pm

squirm wrote:
randomguy wrote:
squirm wrote:
Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.
Not being able to drive 200+ miles on charge is defective in the same ways as not being able to go from 0-60 in 3s, carry a sheet of plywood in the back, carry 8 people, run for .25/mile, and so on are. They matter to some people but not all. I went 7+ years with only 2 trips over 150miles. Other people make 150mile trips every day. Trying to impose your requirements on every one is just stupid.
I don't think I know anyone that drove less than 150 mi trip in seven months. You must be in the very small minority. Saying you want a pickup or want 0-60 in 3 seconds is one thing, but saying most people don't care about fast, easy and anxiety free long distance charging is stupid.
Most people I know do not take many 150 mile trips. We are in OC, and LA is 60m away, San Diego is 70. In the last year, I have been to the Pacific Northwest, the Bay Area a dozen times, New York, and Japan. I flew to all of them.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:49 pm

jackholloway wrote:
squirm wrote:
randomguy wrote:
squirm wrote:
Personally I see it as a charging issue. Why would I want to buy a Bolt or any electric car for that matter that I couldn't even drive long distance. It's like buying an expensive but very defective car.
Not being able to drive 200+ miles on charge is defective in the same ways as not being able to go from 0-60 in 3s, carry a sheet of plywood in the back, carry 8 people, run for .25/mile, and so on are. They matter to some people but not all. I went 7+ years with only 2 trips over 150miles. Other people make 150mile trips every day. Trying to impose your requirements on every one is just stupid.
I don't think I know anyone that drove less than 150 mi trip in seven months. You must be in the very small minority. Saying you want a pickup or want 0-60 in 3 seconds is one thing, but saying most people don't care about fast, easy and anxiety free long distance charging is stupid.
Most people I know do not take many 150 mile trips. We are in OC, and LA is 60m away, San Diego is 70. In the last year, I have been to the Pacific Northwest, the Bay Area a dozen times, New York, and Japan. I flew to all of them.
While I drive 150+ miles trips regularly, I have to side with randomguy here in that the various features "matter to some people but not all" and "trying to impose your requirements on every one" is the wrong tact. And like jackholloway, I fly often too.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by cantos » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:03 pm

For those who want to drive an electric car but are worried about the range, the answer, at this stage of technology, is the plug-in hybird (PHEV). My Ford Fusion Energi drives around town on electric only (20-30 miles), which I've found is enough most of the time. Anything above that and it goes to gas. So long road trips of 400-600 miles are no problem - in fact, range isn't a problem at all as I can gas up anywhere and keep going. I've also enjoyed this feature as I can't always find a place to plug in the vehicle overnight wherever I'm staying.

Average real-world mileage is about 60 mpg. If you drive exclusively around town, your mpg would be into the 100+ (as most trips under 20-30 miles will run exclusively on electric alone, and thus have "infinite" mpg).

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Nate79 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 11:17 pm

Range anxiety and charging time are two reasons I believe that pure electric will remain a very small market. Most people just have no interest in making significant changes to their daily lives, compromises to capabilities they may require every once in a while, constant worry about range, etc. For most people there is little to no perceived benefit, no problem in their lives being solved by a pure electric. Manufactures are even learning now to not even market hybrids as hybrids because most people don't even want hybrids even though they want the gas miliage. Electrics and hybrids both have a very negative perception by the common consumer that is not going to be solved for many many years.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by just frank » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:39 am

Nate79 wrote:Range anxiety and charging time are two reasons I believe that pure electric will remain a very small market. Most people just have no interest in making significant changes to their daily lives, compromises to capabilities they may require every once in a while, constant worry about range, etc. For most people there is little to no perceived benefit, no problem in their lives being solved by a pure electric. Manufactures are even learning now to not even market hybrids as hybrids because most people don't even want hybrids even though they want the gas miliage. Electrics and hybrids both have a very negative perception by the common consumer that is not going to be solved for many many years.
Well, this would make perfect sense if EVs were not a moving target. The electric range per cost of electric cars has been improving exponentially since they were introduced, by about 10-15% per year in my estimation. Last year's LEAF costs a little less than the median new car in the US (much less w/o incentives) and has a 110 mile range. This year's Bolt costs a little more, and has a 240 mile range. (Both costs are even more favorable relative to ICE on a TCO basis).

By the rule of 72, these electric range numbers should double in 5-7 years without a cost increase...cheap pure battery EV cars with 220 mile range and slightly more expensive cars with 480 mile range. There is no reason to expect this exponential to flatten out anytime soon. Expert analysts expect these goals to be reached in somewhat less than 5 years. EVs have far fewer moving parts than ICE cars, the moving parts have sealed bearings, instead of combustion chambers...long-range EVs will ultimately be MUCH cheaper than ICE cars.

Remember digital cameras...the first ones were expensive and had low resolution....'real' photographers would scoff at the poor resolution...until they ceased having poor resolution. Then the digital cameras captured the high end (while still expensive) camera market and then gradually swept down in price to destroy the entire film camera market. We are in the middle of this process for EVs....expensive luxury long-range EV cars, but not yet compelling cheap EV cars.

As for negative perception...don't see it where I live. Among my younger friends and coworkers, three people have leased battery EVs since I leased mine in 2014. In contrast, none of them ever considered a hybrid, due to cost/complexity/poor ROI/poor performance. Surveys show that 30% of new car buyers in the US are 'considering' EVs...meaning they will buy them when their needs are met by the technology.

News coverage is terrible...lumping hybrids and EVs together (as you did) makes it look like sales are flat since oil prices collapsed. In reality, EV sales have continued robust growth in the US and globally and conventional hybrids have tanked (largely b/c of competition from superior EVs).

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by wrongfunds » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:32 am

Remember digital cameras...the first ones were expensive and had low resolution....'real' photographers would scoff at the poor resolution...until they ceased having poor resolution. Then the digital cameras captured the high end (while still expensive) camera market and then gradually swept down in price to destroy the entire film camera market. We are in the middle of this process for EVs....expensive luxury long-range EV cars, but not yet compelling cheap EV cars.
For lay person, it is very hard to understand or let alone anticipate these type of technology shifts. But the writing is on the wall. The NYC pictures showing how gasoline power cars completely took over from horse and buggy in less than 10 years is testament to it (google Tony Seba)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by inbox788 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:57 am

just frank wrote:Well, this would make perfect sense if EVs were not a moving target. The electric range per cost of electric cars has been improving exponentially since they were introduced, by about 10-15% per year in my estimation. Last year's LEAF costs a little less than the median new car in the US (much less w/o incentives) and has a 110 mile range. This year's Bolt costs a little more, and has a 240 mile range. (Both costs are even more favorable relative to ICE on a TCO basis).

By the rule of 72, these electric range numbers should double in 5-7 years without a cost increase...cheap pure battery EV cars with 220 mile range and slightly more expensive cars with 480 mile range. There is no reason to expect this exponential to flatten out anytime soon. Expert analysts expect these goals to be reached in somewhat less than 5 years. EVs have far fewer moving parts than ICE cars, the moving parts have sealed bearings, instead of combustion chambers...long-range EVs will ultimately be MUCH cheaper than ICE cars.

Remember digital cameras...the first ones were expensive and had low resolution....'real' photographers would scoff at the poor resolution...until they ceased having poor resolution. Then the digital cameras captured the high end (while still expensive) camera market and then gradually swept down in price to destroy the entire film camera market. We are in the middle of this process for EVs....expensive luxury long-range EV cars, but not yet compelling cheap EV cars.

As for negative perception...don't see it where I live. Among my younger friends and coworkers, three people have leased battery EVs since I leased mine in 2014. In contrast, none of them ever considered a hybrid, due to cost/complexity/poor ROI/poor performance. Surveys show that 30% of new car buyers in the US are 'considering' EVs...meaning they will buy them when their needs are met by the technology.

News coverage is terrible...lumping hybrids and EVs together (as you did) makes it look like sales are flat since oil prices collapsed. In reality, EV sales have continued robust growth in the US and globally and conventional hybrids have tanked (largely b/c of competition from superior EVs).
I don't think anyone really disagrees with the direction technology is going, but only the timing. It's like saying the market goes up in the long run, but this week or this year? Or even a decade? With some things, once the inflection point is reached, the transition is very fast, but with others, it takes a while to make the full move if ever. And sometimes, different technologies can coexist for a while. Even after all new cars sold are electric cars, there is a huge inventory of working ICE cars that need to break down, get totaled or mothballed before they're replaced. One day, 90% of gas stations will close, your nearest gas station will be 5-10 miles away and gas will cost $10/gallon. But that won't be 10 or 20 year from now from what I expect. Or not. http://jalopnik.com/gas-stations-are-go ... 1783968056 You'd think a shortage of gas stations would help push EV sales, no?
wrongfunds wrote:
Remember digital cameras...the first ones were expensive and had low resolution....'real' photographers would scoff at the poor resolution...until they ceased having poor resolution. Then the digital cameras captured the high end (while still expensive) camera market and then gradually swept down in price to destroy the entire film camera market. We are in the middle of this process for EVs....expensive luxury long-range EV cars, but not yet compelling cheap EV cars.
For lay person, it is very hard to understand or let alone anticipate these type of technology shifts. But the writing is on the wall. The NYC pictures showing how gasoline power cars completely took over from horse and buggy in less than 10 years is testament to it (google Tony Seba)
The question is how much of this expectation is built into the stock market and specific stocks. Kodak failed to make the digital leap. IBM managed to survive the extinction of the punch card and typewriter. Trouble is that to profit from this shift, you have to put money in the right investments at the right time. You not only have to anticipate the shift, but also the timing of the shift. Having to understand doesn't have to be a requirement. Just look back at Tesla stock and explain how professionals or laypersons understood the company and the technology they're advancing. It's gone through periods of underperformance and outperformance that don't align with any particular reality. Plenty of laypersons have piled into Tesla without understanding much other than the dream, and they'll do better if the dream is realized than the experts (investors or technologists?) who lack conviction or luck.

And besides the required tenological march and breakthroughs, the incentive plans have and will further alter the trajectory of adoption:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/11/busi ... edits.html

One of both of the following will be wrong in timing. Depending on who you believe, the valuation of companies like Tesla and others would be drastically different.

Electric vehicles to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040
https://about.bnef.com/blog/electric-ve ... s-by-2040/
The industrial age of energy and transportation will be over by 2030. Maybe before.

Clean Disruption projections (based on technology cost curves, business model innovation as well as product innovation) show that by 2030:
– All new energy will be provided by solar or wind.
– All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
– All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) or semi-autonomous.
– The car market will shrink by 80%.
– Gasoline will be obsolete. Nuclear is already obsolete. Natural Gas and Coal will be obsolete.
– Up to 80% of highways will not be needed.
– Up to 80% of parking spaces will not be needed.
– The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete.
– The Car Insurance industry will be disrupted. The taxi industry will be obsolete.
http://tonyseba.com/portfolio-item/clea ... portation/

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BrandonBogle
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by BrandonBogle » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:54 pm

I guess my practical nature just doesn't understand all this back-and-forth on EVs (and not just amongst Bogleheads). The great thing is the consumer has choices. Willing to spend the time researching the tech, find the range covers most your usage, you have a viable plan (or wherewithall to make one) to charge when necessary, and the funds to support the cost, get an EV. If you don't have all those and/or are unwilling to "put up" with any potential drawbacks or changes to your lifestyle, then get a more traditional vehicle. It isn't like anyone is forcing others to get EVs.

Range anxiety is one particular strong topic point and again, I don't get it. I know people who would be horrible as EV owners. They own laptops and smartphones and even when sitting at their desk right next to a power supply, they don't plug in even when they get the low battery warning and instead carry on until their device shuts down. Similarly, not a week goes by that I don't see cars stuck on the side of the road because they ran out of gas or have some sort of mechanical failure. These people shouldn't own EVs as it will be a disaster for them.

Meanwhile, anyone who distrusts the tech, the company selling it, or just plain doesn't like it, don't buy one! Life is too short to quibble over such things. Instead, have a glass of :beer with friends :sharebeer

randomguy
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by randomguy » Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:59 pm

squirm wrote:
I don't think I know anyone that drove less than 150 mi trip in seven months. You must be in the very small minority. Saying you want a pickup or want 0-60 in 3 seconds is one thing, but saying most people don't care about fast, easy and anxiety free long distance charging is stupid.
How do you know if I am the minority or if you are?:) I am willing to bet most of the people you know are in similar situations to you and that biases your observations. Poll the average NYC car owner about how far they drive and you will end up with vastly different numbers than if you poll a car owner in say rural texas.

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canon_shooter
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by canon_shooter » Tue May 30, 2017 10:57 am

I decided to purchase a Premier Bolt in early April 2017 vs a Tesla (S or 3) for the following reasons (and I'm happy with the decision):

* I needed a 2nd car now as the existing car had given up the ghost. I did not want to wait for the 3 as it had 400K people on the waiting list with deliveries in to 2018 when I would have signed up. This ruled out the 3.

* Most of my driving is local and under 150 miles so having an EV that had a range of 200+ miles was critical. I needed to ensure that I could get around even using the heater (worst case possible degradation 30% or air conditioner at 3%) and hills (Santa Cruz to San Jose). 200+ miles gave me room to avoid any range anxiety.

* Comfort was important. Main considerations for me being a tall person (5'11'') was headroom and leg room for all passengers. Both S and Bolt met the need. Storage area, safety features were comparable in my opinion. This is a tricky area to evaluate because there are some factors that are physical (such as do you have enough leg room) and really can't be argued with if you want a satisfactory ride, and there are some factors that are more a personal decision such as how quiet do you need the ride to be or the leather/padding used in the seats or the handling. Now, anyone of these areas could also be showstoppers if they fall below a certain threshold, I recognize that, but for my needs of generally short rides not exceeding 1.5 hours in any single direction, the Bolt did just fine. The S was better in all these secondary factors and if cost (next subject) were not a factor, no doubt, I would prefer the S.

* Cost - I could afford the S and at the time of evaluation, I actually wanted to justify the purchase! But when I was done with the financial evaluation including the installation of the home charger, the S was in the ballpark of 3x the cost of the Bolt (30K after incentives) vs in the 90K for the S, possibly even more. I am willing to pay some premium for the S vs the Bolt (maybe 20-35%) but this exceeded my threshold. Instead, I bought the Bolt and put solar on my house with the 'savings'.

* Future-Proofing - No doubt the technology on EVs will move fast, but will it move so fast in the next 7-10 years (about how long I might own the car) as to make it useless to me? As was pointed out by a previous writer, EVs are not like apps that go obsolete with a change of an operating system. We will still have roads and infrastructure to support vehicles for a long time to come. So, as long as I am capable of driving myself and don't require an autonomous vehicle, the Bolt should do just fine. This includes the possible degradation of battery of 30-40% over the lifetime (and these estimates are high).

Decision - After driving both cars multiple times, I recognized that while the S would be a more fun car to drive and has a higher hedonistic pleasure factor, that it's 3x cost was more than my threshold given all the other factors. One interesting part of the evaluation was the recognition of how much of a non-technical decision it was. Even a 30K car such as the Bolt is a discretionary purchase as I could have purchased a non-ev getting great mileage for half the price. So, I could (and tried) to argue, if money isn't an important factor, is there any difference between spending 30K and 90K and I think the answer is no. But, I got to where I am by being mostly frugal and probably will continue that way and went with the frugal decision. Probably a by-product of being a member of this board.


So, I've had the Bolt for a month now with 2000 miles put on it. It's perfect for my needs, going to the gym, groceries, social events, visits to local wineries (holds 2 cases of wine just fine in the deep trunk and seats fold flat for even more storage), driving to meetings, commute traffic. And, as true with the S as well, the acceleration of an EV is awesome. It's actually a lot of fun to drive and comfortable. It charges overnight and is always ready to go. I would highly recommend the Premier over the LT for the safety features, leather seats. Also the fast charger option just in case you find you want to go on a longer trip. It's not the S, and if you can live with that, then I think you'll find it a rewarding vehicle and you can spend the money you save on other items.
thanks

Sandi_k
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by Sandi_k » Tue May 30, 2017 12:43 pm

canon_shooter wrote:I decided to purchase a Premier Bolt in early April 2017 vs a Tesla (S or 3) for the following reasons (and I'm happy with the decision):

(Snip)

So, I've had the Bolt for a month now with 2000 miles put on it. It's perfect for my needs, going to the gym, groceries, social events, visits to local wineries (holds 2 cases of wine just fine in the deep trunk and seats fold flat for even more storage), driving to meetings, commute traffic. And, as true with the S as well, the acceleration of an EV is awesome. It's actually a lot of fun to drive and comfortable. It charges overnight and is always ready to go. I would highly recommend the Premier over the LT for the safety features, leather seats. Also the fast charger option just in case you find you want to go on a longer trip. It's not the S, and if you can live with that, then I think you'll find it a rewarding vehicle and you can spend the money you save on other items.
thanks
My husband has had his Bolt for about the same amount of time, and concurs almost entirely with you. He's 5'11" too, and we've actually had 5 people in the car for a short drive - no issues about legroom or comfort.

He installed his own fast charger, and is very pleased with it as well. I'd be tempted to lease one for my 100-mile RT commute, but I'd put too many miles on it. :D

2m2037
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Re: Tesla Model 3 or Chevy Bolt?

Post by 2m2037 » Tue May 30, 2017 2:39 pm

Bolt for daily use and rent a gas car for road trips.

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