$7 gas - what would you do?
- just frank
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
In 2008 my 2013 model year EV was not even a concept car.
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Just keep driving,,You only live once
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
- Random Musings
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Grumble like everyone else who is pumping gas at the time.
Either that, or buy a sturdy siphon hose.
RM
Either that, or buy a sturdy siphon hose.
RM
I figure the odds be fifty-fifty I just might have something to say. FZ
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Why is there no option for keep driving the same amount? I mean, I guess it falls into other, but other could mean many other things.
I bike almost all the time. The only time I drive is when it is not feasible for me to bike there, whether it's because I can't make it in time, it's raining, or it's not socially acceptable for me to such up all sweaty. And on top of all of that, public transport isn't an option because either there is none to where I'm going, or I wouldn't make it there in time.
Also, carpooling isn't an option when I'm driving to go see a friend with whom I have no mutual friends.
If I have to pay more for gas, then I pay more for gas. But since if I'm paying for gas I don't have any other choice, I wouldn't change my driving habits based on the gas prices (well ok, I guess I could bike in the rain...but I'll gladly pay to drive me car in that scenario).
I bike almost all the time. The only time I drive is when it is not feasible for me to bike there, whether it's because I can't make it in time, it's raining, or it's not socially acceptable for me to such up all sweaty. And on top of all of that, public transport isn't an option because either there is none to where I'm going, or I wouldn't make it there in time.
Also, carpooling isn't an option when I'm driving to go see a friend with whom I have no mutual friends.
If I have to pay more for gas, then I pay more for gas. But since if I'm paying for gas I don't have any other choice, I wouldn't change my driving habits based on the gas prices (well ok, I guess I could bike in the rain...but I'll gladly pay to drive me car in that scenario).
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
No change. I only buy about 120 gallons a year anyway.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
A rare thing in North America, indeed, unless you are very poor?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work. All of our amenities (grocery store, library, doctor, etc.) are easily accessible without a car. If gas hit $7/gal, nothing in our lives would change. If it weren't for listening to the news, I wouldn't even know that $7/gal is an abnormally high value for gas.
It's possible in cities like (I would imagine): New York, San Francisco, Boston, Portland, maybe Washington, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver (definitely those last 3). But only if you live relatively centrally? My general impression is North Americans need their cars-- most live in suburbs, and suburban densities are too low to be economic for most public transportation.
I did take a bus once in Baltimore and I must admit it frightened me-- a mixture of very poor people and people totally off their heads. So another city I would probably drive.
Note if gas went back up to $7 your public transit authority would feel it. So would home delivery etc. So there would be knock on effects for you.
My mother in a big Canadian city has reached an age where she needs cabs a lot- -but then that would be a difficult age for driving as well.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
At a serious level the time cost of driving (and benefit) is greater for most middle class people than the cost of the gasoline.Toons wrote:Just keep driving,,You only live once
The big costs of driving are fixed costs for most: insurance + depreciation + lease finance costs (if any). These don't vary much with mileage.
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Try to stop taking hallucinogens.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Ok just on the concept of 'Peak Car'.
Colour me cautiously sceptical - I think the effect of the economic recession has magnified this. For example Hispanic Americans were making the trek to the suburbs like our parents did in the 1950s-- houses, large cars (big families), shopping malls etc. The recession stopped this process for a while, but it will continue. And there's the emerging markets.
But social movements have a way of turning acorns into oaks. Suddenly something enters the zeitgeist, and the few pioneers become mainstream. For me, that happened with the amazing revitalization of the downtowns of North American cities in the last 30 years. In 1980 you could barely see its beginnings in cities like Toronto. New York was still in its dark days. Now?
Some web links on Peak Car.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_car
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/comm ... ak-car.pdf
http://www.rudi.net/node/22123
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 86616.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-2 ... r-era.html
http://blogs.ft.com/nick-butler/2013/12 ... -peak-car/
The basic argument runs along the line that as we crowd into megacities, congestion costs become so large that 'peak car' is in sight-- on public transport you can read or do something else, or you can bicycle or walk just as quickly.
Colour me cautiously sceptical - I think the effect of the economic recession has magnified this. For example Hispanic Americans were making the trek to the suburbs like our parents did in the 1950s-- houses, large cars (big families), shopping malls etc. The recession stopped this process for a while, but it will continue. And there's the emerging markets.
But social movements have a way of turning acorns into oaks. Suddenly something enters the zeitgeist, and the few pioneers become mainstream. For me, that happened with the amazing revitalization of the downtowns of North American cities in the last 30 years. In 1980 you could barely see its beginnings in cities like Toronto. New York was still in its dark days. Now?
Some web links on Peak Car.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_car
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/comm ... ak-car.pdf
http://www.rudi.net/node/22123
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 86616.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-2 ... r-era.html
http://blogs.ft.com/nick-butler/2013/12 ... -peak-car/
The basic argument runs along the line that as we crowd into megacities, congestion costs become so large that 'peak car' is in sight-- on public transport you can read or do something else, or you can bicycle or walk just as quickly.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
How does she compensate for never driving the others in the car pool?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
You are being logical. This is not how most minds work.Valuethinker wrote:
The big costs of driving are fixed costs for most: insurance + depreciation + lease finance costs (if any). These don't vary much with mileage.
The same person who will not think twice about paying $100 for a fairly good (but not great) restaurant meal for two will have a serious inner debate about whether to spend the same $100 on, say, an e-reader or tablet that might last them years. We have an odd way of evaluating worth.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
I don't think it is rare at all in the US (or I imagine in Europe) for big city-dwellers with good public transportation systems. In many cities car ownership is not only expensive but a real hassle. Walking, biking and public transportation not only saves of money but is also often quicker and less exasperating. This must also be true in Europe.Valuethinker wrote:A rare thing in North America, indeed, unless you are very poor?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work. All of our amenities (grocery store, library, doctor, etc.) are easily accessible without a car. If gas hit $7/gal, nothing in our lives would change. If it weren't for listening to the news, I wouldn't even know that $7/gal is an abnormally high value for gas.
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
2008 poll? Now what would you do if gas was long around $3.60 then pretty suddenly only about half as much? I think the answer obviously includes drive less/more, it's just a question of how much. We drive around 6-7k miles a year in recent years, just got a car which gets around 25mpg avg on premium, ~600/yr at current prices. We pay $300/month (ouch, but a big hassle to street park where we live) to garage it and lets oversimplify and say it will be worthless 12.5 years and cost $45k so straight line it costs another $300/month in depreciation, insurance is about the same as gas, so gas is around 7% of the cost now (not counting maintenance so actually less, though maintenance also somewhat varies with mileage like gas). Anyway it would be questionable I agree to get rid of the car because $7 gas increased the total cost by 16% on same rough calc, though it's possible that would push it over the edge for someone. However I don't agree it's an at all strange concept of value to drive a little less at $7/gal than $2/gal. We'll also probably drive a little more now if it stays around $2.17 for premium like we just paid recently v $3.6 or so we averaged (I calculated) last several years. We'll also perhaps drive a bit more at the margin because the new car averages 25mpg v 15mpg (also premium) for the SUV it replaced (which is why mileage standards for cars as energy saving policy work against themselves to a significant degree, while making gas expensive just makes consumption go down, not advocating anything just speaking in terms of economic fact).
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Oops!AJ wrote:There is a new CIBC report that predicts $7 gas by 2010. What changes would you make to your lifestyle to handle $7 gas?
So much for that prediction.
Mike
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
I live in Seattle, but nowhere near downtown. We have middling public transit (notice the variation in length of my bus commute), but a big advantage is Metro's reliance on electric trolleys. Our electricity is cheap and reliable, so this cushions the effects of fuel prices, although we still have plenty of diesel busses going around.Valuethinker wrote:A rare thing in North America, indeed, unless you are very poor?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work. All of our amenities (grocery store, library, doctor, etc.) are easily accessible without a car. If gas hit $7/gal, nothing in our lives would change. If it weren't for listening to the news, I wouldn't even know that $7/gal is an abnormally high value for gas.
It's possible in cities like (I would imagine): New York, San Francisco, Boston, Portland, maybe Washington, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver (definitely those last 3). But only if you live relatively centrally? My general impression is North Americans need their cars-- most live in suburbs, and suburban densities are too low to be economic for most public transportation.
I did take a bus once in Baltimore and I must admit it frightened me-- a mixture of very poor people and people totally off their heads. So another city I would probably drive.
Note if gas went back up to $7 your public transit authority would feel it. So would home delivery etc. So there would be knock on effects for you.
My mother in a big Canadian city has reached an age where she needs cabs a lot- -but then that would be a difficult age for driving as well.
While I agree with you that many Americans live in suburbs, the fastest growing census tracts are all urban regions. Not to say that suburbs will ever go away, but a lot of people are realizing the benefits of cities.
For me, not driving comes down to avoiding stress where I can, but also getting free exercise (no gym membership for me!) and controlling costs (a car is basically an expense on a living style).
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Depreciation is a function of mileage.The big costs of driving are fixed costs for most: insurance + depreciation + lease finance costs (if any). These don't vary much with mileage.
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
poor selection of answers and choices. I would do the same as I do now - get up, drive to work. drive home. Would do the same at $10 per gallon, or $1 per gallon.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
OK I have never met a middle class American who did not own a car (or owned a car before moving to Europe). I count friends in Manhattan with cars (I think they are mad, but they use them at weekends, and also some of them now work in Connecticut, so they drive *out* to Conn every day).protagonist wrote:I don't think it is rare at all in the US (or I imagine in Europe) for big city-dwellers with good public transportation systems. In many cities car ownership is not only expensive but a real hassle. Walking, biking and public transportation not only saves of money but is also often quicker and less exasperating. This must also be true in Europe.Valuethinker wrote:A rare thing in North America, indeed, unless you are very poor?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work. All of our amenities (grocery store, library, doctor, etc.) are easily accessible without a car. If gas hit $7/gal, nothing in our lives would change. If it weren't for listening to the news, I wouldn't even know that $7/gal is an abnormally high value for gas.
I have experienced the bus networks in a couple of American cities like Baltimore. I concluded that middle class people did not use the bus in Baltimore. Or in Washington DC (then - 1980s). Maybe the subway but not the bus.
A friend lived in LA-- everyone has a car in LA, I think that's a given. The bus goes downtown if you happen to live near a suburban parking lot where the bus picks up. The subway system covers very little. (Who Framed Roger Rabbit looms into mind).
So which are these cities (besides the obvious: New York, San Francisco, Boston maybe) where people don't own cars? I don't mean poor people (in America maybe not the poorest people, but the next up still own cars to get to work). College towns, again, yes (although college parking is always an out and out war between students and faculty and employees suggesting students drive, too).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... _ridership
even NYC is only 50% public transit to work. Even in the city with (one of) the world's largest subway systems, commuter rail etc. People walk/ bicycle in Manhattan but I doubt most people would walk more than say 20 blocks to work?
EDIT to answer my own question
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U. ... hout_a_car (note data is from 2000)
besides New York and a couple of other centres like Seattle, I basically see depressed post industrial towns-- Newark, Buffalo etc. These are very poor people.
Europe is a different ballgame, the cities are much denser than most North American cities and many more people live downtown. Public transport is generally good especially in Germanic cities. The UK is strikingly poor outside of London (they privatized the buses and services went to heck; there's been a slow rebuild since the bottom in the early 90s with LRT etc.) but places like Manchester are building extensive tram systems. The Dutch and the Danes lead the world in bicycle friendliness, France and Germany are nothing so helpful.
(italicized edits)
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
it is in physical terms on a car, but it's also financially true. A 5 year old car is worth a lot less than a new car. In fact you lose c. 20% of value the moment it is no longer 'new'.lee1026 wrote:Depreciation is a function of mileage.The big costs of driving are fixed costs for most: insurance + depreciation + lease finance costs (if any). These don't vary much with mileage.
A mint condition 10 year old Honda is not worth as much as a new Honda. There's depreciation in things even if you don't use them.
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
I am terrible with macro economic forecasts so it affirms my index approach to investing.
We recently convinced landlord to convert our ancient oil boiler to gas. Now heating oil prices have plummeted.
We bought a Prius in 2012- gas is cheap.
Both decisions benefit us long term and were made for other reasons too but were bad forecasts.
We recently convinced landlord to convert our ancient oil boiler to gas. Now heating oil prices have plummeted.
We bought a Prius in 2012- gas is cheap.
Both decisions benefit us long term and were made for other reasons too but were bad forecasts.
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Thank you.skylar wrote:I live in Seattle, but nowhere near downtown. We have middling public transit (notice the variation in length of my bus commute), but a big advantage is Metro's reliance on electric trolleys. Our electricity is cheap and reliable, so this cushions the effects of fuel prices, although we still have plenty of diesel busses going around.Valuethinker wrote:A rare thing in North America, indeed, unless you are very poor?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work. All of our amenities (grocery store, library, doctor, etc.) are easily accessible without a car. If gas hit $7/gal, nothing in our lives would change. If it weren't for listening to the news, I wouldn't even know that $7/gal is an abnormally high value for gas.
It's possible in cities like (I would imagine): New York, San Francisco, Boston, Portland, maybe Washington, Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver (definitely those last 3). But only if you live relatively centrally? My general impression is North Americans need their cars-- most live in suburbs, and suburban densities are too low to be economic for most public transportation.
I did take a bus once in Baltimore and I must admit it frightened me-- a mixture of very poor people and people totally off their heads. So another city I would probably drive.
Note if gas went back up to $7 your public transit authority would feel it. So would home delivery etc. So there would be knock on effects for you.
My mother in a big Canadian city has reached an age where she needs cabs a lot- -but then that would be a difficult age for driving as well.
While I agree with you that many Americans live in suburbs, the fastest growing census tracts are all urban regions. Not to say that suburbs will ever go away, but a lot of people are realizing the benefits of cities.
For me, not driving comes down to avoiding stress where I can, but also getting free exercise (no gym membership for me!) and controlling costs (a car is basically an expense on a living style).
That link (from 2000) had Seattle up on the list of carless households.
With the rise in traffic congestion, smaller families and perhaps most importantly falling crime rates (remember your typical American downtown c. 1985?) there *has* been this movement downtown. Ferguson perhaps is a good example of a reverse movement to the suburbs by the less affluent.
70-80% of my neighbours have cars (row houses with only on street parking). Some have 2 cars. Mostly the ones with kids. We do without a car, but in semi-suburban London that's still feasible-- there are regular buses every 5-10 minutes and a Tube (subway) less than 15 minutes walk away. Home delivery makes up a lot of the gap-- I can't face having £20,000 of metal sitting on the street 5-6 days a week, depreciating. If you lived a couple of miles further out though, you'd really feel the lack of a car.
We have a system where you can SMS a number at the bus stop, and it gives you estimated waiting times until the next bus? In Toronto there's a web page you can look up so on the less frequent routes, you can time themselves. Has Seattle brought that in?
Streetcars were replaced with trolleys (and then buses) in London for economic reasons (and to make it easier for cars to drive on the road surface). Now, 60 years later, that was clearly a terrible mistake and incredibly expensive (impossible) to rectify. Trolleys pose their own reliability problems (if the lines are down, or a trolley is broken down, it can't be bypassed unless the trolley has massive battery backup).
A friend lives in a relatively central part of a Canadian city, (technically a 1920s suburb; I'd say the 'streetcar suburbs' of 1900-1920s North America, which would include Brookline in Boston, Shaker Heights in Cleveland, etc. were perhaps the highest quality of life North American civilization has ever achieved), but drives *everywhere*. The municipal buses are not reliable nor frequent enough. And his job is in the suburbs.
- pennstater2005
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Cry, and then get into my car and cry some more while driving to the gas station.
“If you think nobody cares if you're alive, try missing a couple of car payments.” – Earl Wilson
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Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
My guess is it is still cheaper to heat with natural gas? Ok the payback on the furnace is now a lot longer, but there's still an ongoing cost savings. Also your new natural gas boiler is at least 20% (could be 30-40%) more efficient than an aging oil fired boiler (to be clear, the latter could have 50-60% efficiency, a modern gas furnace will be 85%+, so a 1/3rd gain) so even if the economics don't look as good as they did a year ago, they are still probably in your favour.Wellfleet wrote:I am terrible with macro economic forecasts so it affirms my index approach to investing.
We recently convinced landlord to convert our ancient oil boiler to gas. Now heating oil prices have plummeted.
We bought a Prius in 2012- gas is cheap.
Both decisions benefit us long term and were made for other reasons too but were bad forecasts.
On the Prius you have had 2 good years of high gas prices. My bet is you will look foolish for 3 years, then you might well see some upturn-- the 'excess supply' we are talking about is 1-2% of world demand ie a gap that can be closed quite quickly.
I agree forecasting is difficult or impossible (notwithstanding I just made one ).
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Wheres the option for "wouldn't change anything.?"
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
Haha I asked the same thingWHL wrote:Wheres the option for "wouldn't change anything.?"
Re: $7 gas - what would you do?
She pays for gas. All I know is what she pays, though I suppose I could do some math and figure out the per-gallon cost.dolphinsaremammals wrote:How does she compensate for never driving the others in the car pool?skylar wrote:No change - neither my wife nor I have ever owned a car. I can bike (10 minutes), bus (10-50 minutes), or walk (40 minutes) to work. My wife either buses or carpools to work.
It turns out the incremental cost of gas in the car pool is the same as the incremental cost of using public transit, so if gas got more expensive I expect she'd bus instead.