Tesla Model 3 anyone?

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knpstr
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:27 pm

stoptothink wrote: At the very least it will be extremely inconvenient for the near future. Our last two family trips were to Southern California and Houston, from just south of SLC, Utah. There are long stretches (over 200 miles) of driving through the "middle of nowhere". It may be possible, but highly inconvenient to make those trips with a fully electric.

We only need the larger car for these family trips, otherwise our subcompact does just fine, so it likely makes zero sense for us...the wife really wants one though, so it may be a discussion we have in a few years.
I think it is fair to say there is "mindset shift" with an electric car. Many people will fight it.
It is important to remember though, that the charging infrastructure is RAPIDLY improving. What they have now is impressive, what they have planned through this year even more so... and they won't stop there.

You can go to: https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger and scroll down to the map that says "today" then click "2016" and you can see how many more stations are in the works for just this year... let alone by 2018 when the majority of these Model 3's will actually be delivered to customers.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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knpstr
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:34 pm

roflwaffle wrote: Yeah, payback is hard to swing. Even with $10k worth of incentives, PV panels, and ~20k miles/year of driving it'd take something like 18 years to reach the same TCO of a $5k 2005 MT Accord. If gas prices go to $4/gallon, that's 9 years, which is a lot more palatable for most.

At the same time, if you do drive enough, the per mile premium for a 3 compared to a 2000s Accord after including fuel costs at $2/gallon over ~160k miles is ~7c/mile, which is something I would pay for given other tangible benefits like supercharging, autopilot (Which I'm hoping only adds $1k+), and all the time saved by not having to gas up/change the oil/etc.

The biggest question still on my mind is how well Tesla supports DIY owners. Up until recently, they had nothing, and they still only have crazy expensive access ($350/month) to their only service manuals, which is mostly closed to owners (except for MA), and you still likely need access to some specialty diagnostic equipment. Their parts prices are also nutty high. On the flip side, parts prices for any new model are stupid high, so the question is whether or not they'll let OEM manufacturers produce diagnostic tools/parts.
I absolutely agree. There will be "cheaper cars" to own than the Model 3.
But to be fair a 2018 Model 3 isn't exactly in the same class of car as 2005 MT Honda Accord.

The Model 3 is a "more affordable" car but it still isn't a bare bones budget car. It is competing with BMW 3 series and cars of that class, not your brand new (let alone used) honda accords, toyota camrys, chevy malibu, etc...
Elon stated today that he expects most Model 3s to sell at an average price of $42,000 considering options.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

stoptothink
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by stoptothink » Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:40 pm

knpstr wrote:
stoptothink wrote: At the very least it will be extremely inconvenient for the near future. Our last two family trips were to Southern California and Houston, from just south of SLC, Utah. There are long stretches (over 200 miles) of driving through the "middle of nowhere". It may be possible, but highly inconvenient to make those trips with a fully electric.

We only need the larger car for these family trips, otherwise our subcompact does just fine, so it likely makes zero sense for us...the wife really wants one though, so it may be a discussion we have in a few years.
I think it is fair to say there is "mindset shift" with an electric car. Many people will fight it.
It is important to remember though, that the charging infrastructure is RAPIDLY improving. What they have now is impressive, what they have planned through this year even more so... and they won't stop there.

You can go to: https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger and scroll down to the map that says "today" then click "2016" and you can see how many more stations are in the works for just this year... let alone by 2018 when the majority of these Model 3's will actually be delivered to customers.
The infrastructure is rapidly improving, but I think you are being optimistic about how convenient it is to make longer trips. Sure it may be possible, but you are talking about possibly adding a lot of additional driving time and hassle by rerouting so you always have an available supercharger. I certainly don't want to do that on what is supposed to be a vacation. I also don't want the hassle and cost of renting a car when we go on a trip. We are still quite a ways from fully electrics being a viable option for everybody, all the time - I certainly hope we get there.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by RamoniOba » Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:04 pm

Definitely interested. But I have to see the dimensions if I fit. At 6 5' comfort beats savings on gas and cant justify the investment in a S and X model.

I expect Tesla will slip on the delivery date - most likely 2018 for first shipments. I can wait.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:06 pm

knpstr wrote: I think it is fair to say there is "mindset shift" with an electric car. Many people will fight it.
It is important to remember though, that the charging infrastructure is RAPIDLY improving. What they have now is impressive, what they have planned through this year even more so... and they won't stop there.

You can go to: https://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger and scroll down to the map that says "today" then click "2016" and you can see how many more stations are in the works for just this year... let alone by 2018 when the majority of these Model 3's will actually be delivered to customers.
+1. My wife, for example, fought the mindset shift, for all of one night after we got our Tesla. She had not been in favor, but after seeing the car's capabilities, she said that on the few longer trips we take, we'd have to pee and grab a bite anyway :)

My town, just this week, announced two new chargers. I won't need them, of course, but it's a fair assumption that many towns I might be going to are adding chargers also.

DW had an interesting response to the software on the Tesla. She said that the technology integration was like the difference between an iPhone and a landline. If the battery on an iPhone or Tesla is running low, the software will engage battery-saving options.
Okay, I get it; I won't be political or controversial. The Earth is flat.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:06 pm

stoptothink wrote: The infrastructure is rapidly improving, but I think you are being optimistic about how convenient it is to make longer trips. Sure it may be possible, but you are talking about possibly adding a lot of additional driving time and hassle by rerouting so you always have an available supercharger. I certainly don't want to do that on what is supposed to be a vacation. I also don't want the hassle and cost of renting a car when we go on a trip. We are still quite a ways from fully electrics being a viable option for everybody, all the time - I certainly hope we get there.
That may or may not be a fair criticism. It really depends on a specific situation of how much you like to stay off the beaten path. Certainly it won't work for "all" people that like to drive on dirt or back roads for thousands of miles. But "most" people take the "most popular" roads...by definition.

So the vast majority of people on road trips follow along interstate roads between major areas... where superchargers are already heavily sprinkled. So there would be no added driving time at all. And even most popular destinations do (or will) incorporate "destination charging" to bridge the gap if they happen to be isolated. Also, for what it is worth as well, people that have taken road trips in the teslas with autopilot report it is much less draining on the driver and make the drives feel "easier", as well. For example there are videos on youtube of a trip from Boston to Orlando - Disneyworld where the car drives 80-90% of the way itself.

For example, I live in Michigan. I could drive to Mt Rushmore, Seattle, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Miami, New York city, Myrtle beach, Washington DC, Denver, etc... with using the superchargers available today.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by mervinj7 » Fri Apr 01, 2016 1:14 pm

knpstr wrote:
stoptothink wrote: The infrastructure is rapidly improving, but I think you are being optimistic about how convenient it is to make longer trips. Sure it may be possible, but you are talking about possibly adding a lot of additional driving time and hassle by rerouting so you always have an available supercharger. I certainly don't want to do that on what is supposed to be a vacation. I also don't want the hassle and cost of renting a car when we go on a trip. We are still quite a ways from fully electrics being a viable option for everybody, all the time - I certainly hope we get there.
So the vast majority of people on road trips follow along interstate roads between major areas... where superchargers are already heavily sprinkled. So there would be no added driving time at all. And even most popular destinations do (or will) incorporate "destination charging" to bridge the gap if they happen to be isolated. Also, for what it is worth as well, people that have taken road trips in the teslas with autopilot report it is much less draining on the driver and make the drives feel "easier", as well. For example there are videos on youtube of a trip from Boston to Orlando - Disneyworld where the car drives 80-90% of the way itself.
LA to NYC in 59 Hours all using the Supercharger network.

http://jalopnik.com/they-drove-a-tesla- ... 1699782187

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by queso » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:01 pm

Maybe I'm overthinking it or just ignorant on the subject (actually, definitely on the latter one..), but how many hookups are at a supercharger? Are the superchargers interoperable across manufacturers (can I charge a Leaf and a Tesla off the same connector/supercharger) or is there no standard yet?

I can see once they start selling a bunch of these that there are going to be supercharger lines forming and if it takes an hour to charge vs. 5 minutes to get gas I can see a real problem/hassle. Anyway, interesting topic to discuss. Like everybody said, it takes a bit of thinking to work out how it will all work and a bit of planning to travel with one, but it sounds like there is a lot of progress being made at a pretty quick pace. Thanks for all the info.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:09 pm

queso wrote:Maybe I'm overthinking it or just ignorant on the subject (actually, definitely on the latter one..), but how many hookups are at a supercharger? Are the superchargers interoperable across manufacturers (can I charge a Leaf and a Tesla off the same connector/supercharger) or is there no standard yet?

I can see once they start selling a bunch of these that there are going to be supercharger lines forming and if it takes an hour to charge vs. 5 minutes to get gas I can see a real problem/hassle. Anyway, interesting topic to discuss. Like everybody said, it takes a bit of thinking to work out how it will all work and a bit of planning to travel with one, but it sounds like there is a lot of progress being made at a pretty quick pace. Thanks for all the info.
It varies... but on average there are about 6 charging stations (hookups) at each location.
There is no standard for charge ports that all cars use, but there are adapters for a Tesla to be able to use less powerful charging stations.

Only Teslas use Tesla superchargers.
And again. While some people will charge for an hour, the majority will be there for half that time or less. It is simply a "change in mindset". Don't expect to "top off your car" don't expect it will take 5 minutes either, the cars simply do not work that way.

I'd guess that most people said similar things when gas cars came out.
"Put gas on it?! You'll be riding a bomb!" ..."I just have to feed my horse that is it, don't have to worry about filling it up!" ... "wow those are noisy". etc..
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by BW1985 » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:23 pm

knpstr wrote:
stoptothink wrote: The infrastructure is rapidly improving, but I think you are being optimistic about how convenient it is to make longer trips. Sure it may be possible, but you are talking about possibly adding a lot of additional driving time and hassle by rerouting so you always have an available supercharger. I certainly don't want to do that on what is supposed to be a vacation. I also don't want the hassle and cost of renting a car when we go on a trip. We are still quite a ways from fully electrics being a viable option for everybody, all the time - I certainly hope we get there.
That may or may not be a fair criticism. It really depends on a specific situation of how much you like to stay off the beaten path. Certainly it won't work for "all" people that like to drive on dirt or back roads for thousands of miles. But "most" people take the "most popular" roads...by definition.

So the vast majority of people on road trips follow along interstate roads between major areas... where superchargers are already heavily sprinkled. So there would be no added driving time at all. And even most popular destinations do (or will) incorporate "destination charging" to bridge the gap if they happen to be isolated. Also, for what it is worth as well, people that have taken road trips in the teslas with autopilot report it is much less draining on the driver and make the drives feel "easier", as well. For example there are videos on youtube of a trip from Boston to Orlando - Disneyworld where the car drives 80-90% of the way itself.

For example, I live in Michigan. I could drive to Mt Rushmore, Seattle, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Miami, New York city, Myrtle beach, Washington DC, Denver, etc... with using the superchargers available today.
Is auto-pilot completely self driving as in you could go to sleep? If so I didn't realize this tech was here already.

Are the superchargers free? If you have one close to your house I suppose you could just charge there rather than paying for it at home.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:30 pm

BW1985 wrote:
Is auto-pilot completely self driving as in you could go to sleep? If so I didn't realize this tech was here already.

Are the superchargers free? If you have one close to your house I suppose you could just charge there rather than paying for it at home.
No you can't go to sleep. It will make you grab the wheel every so often to check that you are awake.

Yes they are free to use.
You can do that if you'd like. But a full "fill up" (0-100) would only cost about $6 in your electricity bill and much more convenient too.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by United2008 » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:40 pm

Placed my reservation / deposit last night! I figure the worst case scenario is that I ask for a refund or flip the car for a tidy profit to one of the many who will be clamoring for the car in my area and willing to pay hefty secondary market prices for the immediate gratification.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by randomguy » Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:55 pm

knpstr wrote:
I'd guess that most people said similar things when gas cars came out.
"Put gas on it?! You'll be riding a bomb!" ..."I just have to feed my horse that is it, don't have to worry about filling it up!" ... "wow those are noisy". etc..
And you know what? Those people were right. For a while. Then gas stations sprouted up everywhere, the cars got more reliable than your horse, and a heck of a lot cheaper. If electric cars keep employing (i.e. if in 20 years capacity is 4x higher and they at 1/20th the price), they will replace almost all uses of gas and society will adapt. The transition period though can be painful.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:05 pm

Absolutely NO.

I have friends who live in apartment, with half my paycheck target to buy the top of the line Model 3.

I have friends who don't have $5000 in the bank still line up overnight to pay a deposit at the Tesla store.

To me, frankly, I'm just too cheap to spend over $40k for a new car. I have it, just don't want to waste it on a car.
I save and invest my money, so money can make money for me, so I don't have to make money eventually.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by jdb » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:18 pm

Pure conjecture, but I wouldn't be surprised when Tesla Model 3 is being delivered in quantity that national non affiliated gas chains like RaceTrac will add Tesla Super Chargers. They make their profit on convenience store purchases and a 30 minute recharge stop gives plenty of time to buy chips and soda. Just thinking ahead.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Andyrunner » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:21 pm

My wife might be due for a new car by 2017-2018, issue is the Tesla 3 doesn't look very practical for car seats.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Kevin M » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:26 pm

Road trips are a joy in the Model S. Recently did a 5-day, leisurely round trip from SF Bay Area to Valencia (southern California) and back. Preferred not to drive I-5, so went down Hwy 101, and back between Cambria and Seaside along the Big Sur coastline on Hwy 1. Beautiful, and so much fun in the T-S70D!

No wait at any supercharger (SC) the entire trip, and always got an unpaired stall (charges faster if you start unpaired). While charging we either went on a walk or grabbed a bite to eat, and of course usually hit the restroom. We like to stop every couple of hours anyway, so it fits our travel style very nicely. Our longest stretch between SCs was about 140 miles between Gilroy SC and Atascadero SC, which normally is about a 2-hour drive at speed limit (I usually drive faster), but it was raining hard that day, so we drove more slowly than usual.

We unexpectedly had access to a destination charger at our hotel in Cambria on the way back north. Noticed it on our nav system at about an hour away, called the hotel, and they reserved it for us (no other Teslas were there anyway). So we charged overnight and came back Hwy 1 to Seaside (where there's an SC), at which we charged for about 15 minutes to make it home with plenty of buffer. Fun to be able to make a last minute trip change like that.

Out of many SC stops on a number of trips, have only had to wait once for a stall, for only five minutes, and that was at an SC that we didn't even need to stop at, but chose to because I wanted to stop and eat a sandwich. Some SCs do get busy and have waits at peak times though, but we seem not to hit those.

Rated range is 240 miles on a full charge in our 70D, but actual range depends on factors like speed, elevation change, and headwinds. We usually only charge to 60% or so at home, and try not to charge to more than 80% on road trips, because the charging is faster at lower states of charge (SOC). If you roll into an unpaired stall at an SC with say 20% SOC (about 50 rated miles), you initially add as much as 300 rated miles or more of range per hour, so can get as much as 100 miles of rated range in 20 minutes, and 150 miles of rated range typically is more than enough to get to the next SC in California.

So best way to go is to charge just enough to get to next SC or to destination charger with whatever buffer you're comfortable with (my rule of thumb is 20%). You spend less total time charging this way than charging to higher SOC than you need.

We are planning a trip to Eugene, Oregon in June. Super easy on I-5, but our preference is to go Hwy 1 up the coast if possible. Not enough SCs on that route (EDIT: yet; permits for SCs in Eureka and Crescent City), but there are three hotels with Tesla destination chargers in the Eureka area, which would make it doable.

ICE vehicles still are required for people who like to drive many hours without stopping, or with only super-quick stops. I am not one of those people. There are of course trips that can't be done using SCs only, but there are thousands of generic chargers around the country, and you can use those for more adventurous trips (as Tesla owners did before there were SCs). RV parks with 240V outlets used to be a common alternative, and still are for routes with not enough SCs. We are looking forward to our Oregon trip.

Kevin
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by ryuns » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:26 pm

One thing I've noticed about the progress in electric cars is that there are still a lot situations for which they're not suitable and drivers who won't be buying them for that reason, but that band is getting smaller and smaller all the time. Most families have 2 or more cars, so this makes a great car for 90% of the driving. Or that the car fits all of one's needs aside from the occasional road trip where Tesla doesn't have chargers, and folks can rent a car for the remaining trips. While they remain nowhere near as flexible as ICE, they're getting more and more practical and appealing to an ever-broader array of drivers, which is great.
An inconvenience is only an adventure wrongly considered; an adventure is an inconvenience rightly considered. -- GK Chesterton

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:41 pm

randomguy wrote: And you know what? Those people were right. For a while. Then gas stations sprouted up everywhere, the cars got more reliable than your horse, and a heck of a lot cheaper. If electric cars keep employing (i.e. if in 20 years capacity is 4x higher and they at 1/20th the price), they will replace almost all uses of gas and society will adapt. The transition period though can be painful.
Agreed! And for reference we're already at the part where supercharging stations are "sprouting up everywhere". The electricity is already there, just have to put in all the hardware. (which at minimum is the tech of putting in a dryer plug, Though you can charge your car with a standard outlet it would take too long... though even that would work for my very short 12 mile commute a day)

Also the current capacity is enough for 80% of the population as a conservative guesstimate. Certainly some people will need to "hold out"... but I'd wager most people that think they need 860-1,152 miles of driving range (or about 4x higher capacity than we have now which virtually no car gets anyway) don't truly need it. It is a perceived need, not an actual need.

But the good news is no one will be forced to drive one in the near future anyway! Naturally the "word of mouth" or knowing someone who has one will be the most convincing argument for people unsure about it.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by mouses » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:50 pm

knpstr wrote:
There are putting 2x more chargers and 2x more service centers this year... which will be some 7,200 chargers. There is already the capability to get to every "major" city/destination in the USA before the doubling of charging stations.

Also the supercharges are "navigation points" in the car (navigation is standard in the vehicles). The car will estimate how much charge you will have remaining when you arrive or if you need to charge more to get there, etc...

Simply route planning will avoid you getting stranded... as you can get stranded in gas powered vehicle too. And I believe tesla will have someone come out and bring a loaner car to you then they pick up your car to fix it, wherever you are stranded from a breakdown, if that should occur.
No. A couple of times in the last six months or so my brain has been on automatic and I've missed an exit and wound up off course in unfamiliar territory. With a gas fed engine, finding a gas station is usually not difficult. You can always take an exit and find one in time if you are watching the gas gauge. If you are not near a "major" city/destination, and there are many places in New England where there are basically, like, trees, for miles and miles, you're out of luck with an electric.

No Tesla store in the entire state of Rhode Island, although I see that there is apparently one supercharger, woop de do. I wonder how long it would take Tesla to drive the 150 to 200 miles from the nearest Tesla service centers in Massachusetts to mid RI.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Offshore » Fri Apr 01, 2016 3:51 pm

Put my reservation in the moment the website allowed it. Of course, there are likely tens of thousands of people who reserved before I did, doing so at a dealership.

Nevertheless, I am very excited.

It you look for it, I began a string on the Tesla S in July, 2012. This is when I discovered Tesla and have been pining away since.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by randomguy » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:03 pm

knpstr wrote:
randomguy wrote: And you know what? Those people were right. For a while. Then gas stations sprouted up everywhere, the cars got more reliable than your horse, and a heck of a lot cheaper. If electric cars keep employing (i.e. if in 20 years capacity is 4x higher and they at 1/20th the price), they will replace almost all uses of gas and society will adapt. The transition period though can be painful.
Agreed! And for reference we're already at the part where supercharging stations are "sprouting up everywhere". The electricity is already there, just have to put in all the hardware. (which at minimum is the tech of putting in a dryer plug, Though you can charge your car with a standard outlet it would take too long... though even that would work for my very short 12 mile commute a day)

Also the current capacity is enough for 80% of the population as a conservative guesstimate. Certainly some people will need to "hold out"... but I'd wager most people that think they need 860-1,152 miles of driving range (or about 4x higher capacity than we have now which virtually no car gets anyway) don't truly need it. It is a perceived need, not an actual need.

But the good news is no one will be forced to drive one in the near future anyway! Naturally the "word of mouth" or knowing someone who has one will be the most convincing argument for people unsure about it.
It is all about definitions. When you pull into a parking lot and are surprised that their isn't a charging station, I would call that sprouting up everywhere.:) We are a long way from that level of charging. We are at the point where with some planning you can do almost any trip without too much inconvenience. That is good enough for most people.

Personally I don't expect 800+ mile ranges even when capacity goes up 4x (or heck 10x for that matter). I expect that range will max out in the 400 range and that gains after that will be used to make lighter/cheaper cars (Taking 3/4s of the batteries out of the model s 900lbs would save 900 lbs (great for 0-60 and range) and something like 8k dollars of batteries).

As far as being forced, well at some point 95% of the gas stations might go bankrupt and you will have carefully plan your trips so that you don't end up in a place where you can't buy gas. But I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that future:)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:06 pm

@Kevin M, in addition to the range reducers you mentioned, for those of us not lucky enough to be living in California, cold temperatures will affect range also.

Sounds like a great trip :D
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by stoptothink » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:29 pm

jdb wrote:Pure conjecture, but I wouldn't be surprised when Tesla Model 3 is being delivered in quantity that national non affiliated gas chains like RaceTrac will add Tesla Super Chargers. They make their profit on convenience store purchases and a 30 minute recharge stop gives plenty of time to buy chips and soda. Just thinking ahead.
Absolutely and I hope it gets there (fast), but it isn't there now and Tesla can not make that infrastructure change alone. People saying that this isn't a concern now have a very different definition of the word than I do. As already mentioned, right now there are entire states with only a handful of superchargers - miss an exit, make a wrong turn, and you may be screwed. Likewise, when I visit my in-laws, I don't want the 250 mile drive to now be significantly longer because I not only had to plan the route around having access to a supercharger, but than sit there for 30min while it charges. That is just a tad inconvenient. Very excited for when all of these things are figured out, but IMO it is going to take more than Tesla.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by denovo » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:34 pm

I understand the deposit is refundable, BUT I am extremely surprised that a number of Bogleheads would consider purchasing this car given the cost and chronic problems that Tesla cars have had. Especially at this price range, there's bound to be more problems, and buying it before any reviews, wow. You folks must really trust Elon Musk.
Last edited by denovo on Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 01, 2016 4:41 pm

stoptothink wrote:
jdb wrote:Pure conjecture, but I wouldn't be surprised when Tesla Model 3 is being delivered in quantity that national non affiliated gas chains like RaceTrac will add Tesla Super Chargers. They make their profit on convenience store purchases and a 30 minute recharge stop gives plenty of time to buy chips and soda. Just thinking ahead.
Absolutely and I hope it gets there (fast), but it isn't there now and Tesla can not make that infrastructure change alone. People saying that this isn't a concern now have a very different definition of the word than I do. As already mentioned, right now there are entire states with only a handful of superchargers - miss an exit, make a wrong turn, and you may be screwed. Likewise, when I visit my in-laws, I don't want the 250 mile drive to now be significantly longer because I not only had to plan the route around having access to a supercharger, but than sit there for 30min while it charges. That is just a tad inconvenient. Very excited for when all of these things are figured out, but IMO it is going to take more than Tesla.
My Tesla fits my life. I seldom drive more than 250 miles in a day, and iirc, never on dinky roads. 2 more destination chargers went up in my small suburban city this week. Many said Tesla would never be able to build out this robust a network, so I don't doubt that even more is possible. Look at how the other car manufacturers are starting to be brought kicking and screaming to the party.

198k (refundable) reservations in 24 hours = $198M in free capital!
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by petiejoe » Fri Apr 01, 2016 5:03 pm

stoptothink wrote:
At the very least it will be extremely inconvenient for the near future. Our last two family trips were to Southern California and Houston, from just south of SLC, Utah. There are long stretches (over 200 miles) of driving through the "middle of nowhere". It may be possible, but highly inconvenient to make those trips with a fully electric.

We only need the larger car for these family trips, otherwise our subcompact does just fine, so it likely makes zero sense for us...the wife really wants one though, so it may be a discussion we have in a few years.
https://evtripplanner.com/planner/2-6/?id=sb3u - Provo to LA
https://evtripplanner.com/planner/2-6/?id=sb4h - Provo to Houston

Yes, long road trips will be slightly longer if you have to stop and charge for 30 minutes every 3 hours, and you may not be able to use some of the really "scenic" roads, but it's definitely do-able and it's not really that far out of the way (depending on exact start and stop points). If you were doing these kinds of trips every 2 weeks, it might not be worth it, but once a year it's more feasible. Especially when you factor in that you're trading a little bit more time spent charging on long road trips compared with the weekly stop for gas that you no longer need.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by FireSekr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 5:42 pm

I put a deposit down.

In the last year, I've only taken one trip that was beyond the 200 mile range and I live in Seattle which has extremely cheap electric mostly generated through Hydro power, so the car fits my needs.

Whether or not I will actually buy is another story. I love my 2011 BMW, plan on keeping it many more years, but in 2 years who knows whether maintenance will get out of hand or I need more space.

Putting down $1k basically means I forego $10 a year in interest on money that would otherwise be sitting in a savings account. Only risk is if Tesla goes out of business and can't pay me if I request a refund

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by ClevrChico » Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:08 pm

If I needed a car, absolutely. But, that's a good ten years away. Cars may all be self-driving and uber owned by then.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by randomguy » Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:40 pm

denovo wrote:I understand the deposit is refundable, BUT I am extremely surprised that a number of Bogleheads would consider purchasing this car given the cost and chronic problems that Tesla cars have had. Especially at this price range, there's bound to be more problems, and buying it before any reviews, wow. You folks must really trust Elon Musk.
You have to remember bogleheads has a lot more people than the extreme frugality crowd. You have a lot of living below their meaners who can afford 45k cars and don't mind spending money on things that will make their life better (for some definiton of better).

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:41 pm

mouses wrote: No. A couple of times in the last six months or so my brain has been on automatic and I've missed an exit and wound up off course in unfamiliar territory. With a gas fed engine, finding a gas station is usually not difficult. You can always take an exit and find one in time if you are watching the gas gauge. If you are not near a "major" city/destination, and there are many places in New England where there are basically, like, trees, for miles and miles, you're out of luck with an electric.

No Tesla store in the entire state of Rhode Island, although I see that there is apparently one supercharger, woop de do. I wonder how long it would take Tesla to drive the 150 to 200 miles from the nearest Tesla service centers in Massachusetts to mid RI.
Again. You can map your route on the car with turn by turn navigation. Takes about 15 seconds. Tesla uses Google Maps in their cars.

And the superchargers "aren't meant" for to be used as a place you charge every day on your daily commute. Your home is for that. Superchargers are meant for long road trips.
The reason there is only 1 supercharger is because the state is so small. For example, if you leave Providence with a full charge you can go non-stop to NYC as you drive past 4 superchargers. You can go from Providence, RI to Hartford, CT... and back, without charging. Boston and back, without charging Etc...

From Coventry, RI to Dedham, MA to reach a Tesla service center is.... 56 miles so it would take about an hour.

Again, I'd really suggest you not buy one if that seems like an unbearable obstacle.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:49 pm

randomguy wrote: It is all about definitions. When you pull into a parking lot and are surprised that their isn't a charging station, I would call that sprouting up everywhere.:) We are a long way from that level of charging. We are at the point where with some planning you can do almost any trip without too much inconvenience. That is good enough for most people.
Yup, I wouldn't think superchargers will ever be as populated as gas stations, since you can charge at home. I can't "gas up" at home so more of those are needed. Every home becomes a "gas station", in effect, with electric cars.
Superchargers are intended solely for road trip purposes, not daily "fill ups"
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 01, 2016 6:53 pm

randomguy wrote:
denovo wrote:I understand the deposit is refundable, BUT I am extremely surprised that a number of Bogleheads would consider purchasing this car given the cost and chronic problems that Tesla cars have had. Especially at this price range, there's bound to be more problems, and buying it before any reviews, wow. You folks must really trust Elon Musk.
You have to remember bogleheads has a lot more people than the extreme frugality crowd. You have a lot of living below their meaners who can afford 45k cars and don't mind spending money on things that will make their life better (for some definiton of better).
Winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Buying a Tesla, paying for colleges, taking trips, etc., is why some of us Bogleheads live below our means. I want that more than being the richest man in the graveyard.

The cars, AFAIK, have had problems that are to be expected in such revolutionary vehicles. Most people report that they have been willingly fixed. I don't think they are chronic problems like I had with my Audi transmission.

I not only trust Elon Musk, I think he's a genius and a hero, whose major failing is an excess of optimism. That excess of optimism is what makes him think tough things are possible. See Space X, for example.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Big Dog » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:06 pm

So did anyone register today?
You bet. Reserved two
I understand the deposit is refundable, BUT I am extremely surprised that a number of Bogleheads would consider purchasing this car given the cost and chronic problems that Tesla cars have had. Especially at this price range, there's bound to be more problems, and buying it before any reviews, wow.
Several of our board members have been driving a Tesla for 3+ years, not one problem outside of a squeak here and there, which was fixed at not cost during normal service.
You folks must really trust Elon Musk
In some ways, yes.

fwiw: I've been a follower of John Bogle for many years so I can spend money on things I want to spend it on, not rapacious brokerage houses! :mrgreen:

Still babying a 27-year old Volvo. Last car, a 26 year-old Saab died; I would have repaired it Boglehead-style, but parts became too much of an issue, as was passing the current smog test in California. I expect the M3 to be the last car I buy. (I like to get my money's worth.)

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Crimsontide » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:33 pm

Ok, so this is starting to get interesting now. Until the Model 3 was announced I had completely ruled out the electric car as an alternative for me. Big question for me is, what caveats should be considered when reading the published 215 miles range? What can one really expect to see range-wise, is this cruising at highway speeds of 70+MPH as I do now or is it a mix of stop and go and highway miles? Is the "real" range derated by 30% or so considering terrain, head winds, temperature, etc...?

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by stoptothink » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:43 pm

petiejoe wrote:
stoptothink wrote:
At the very least it will be extremely inconvenient for the near future. Our last two family trips were to Southern California and Houston, from just south of SLC, Utah. There are long stretches (over 200 miles) of driving through the "middle of nowhere". It may be possible, but highly inconvenient to make those trips with a fully electric.

We only need the larger car for these family trips, otherwise our subcompact does just fine, so it likely makes zero sense for us...the wife really wants one though, so it may be a discussion we have in a few years.
https://evtripplanner.com/planner/2-6/?id=sb3u - Provo to LA
https://evtripplanner.com/planner/2-6/?id=sb4h - Provo to Houston

Yes, long road trips will be slightly longer if you have to stop and charge for 30 minutes every 3 hours, and you may not be able to use some of the really "scenic" roads, but it's definitely do-able and it's not really that far out of the way (depending on exact start and stop points). If you were doing these kinds of trips every 2 weeks, it might not be worth it, but once a year it's more feasible. Especially when you factor in that you're trading a little bit more time spent charging on long road trips compared with the weekly stop for gas that you no longer need.
I am all for fully electrics, we'd very much consider it for out next car purchase, but I don't see why people keep challenging the idea that it can be inconvenient. You are changing the route and significantly extending already very long drives; not to mention stopping every 2-3hrs to refuel for 30min isn't my idea of pleasant (as another poster put it). Don't know about you, but my trips aren't planned around where I can fuel up, right now that is the reality.

For us, these trips are every few months. Sure, it is not everyday, but definitely a hassle. Until the infrastructure improves, it doesn't fit the lifestyle of a lot of people. If it fits yours, that is awesome - wish it fit ours RIGHT NOW.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by mickeyd » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:54 pm

DS forked over $1K to get on the Model 3 list. He's smarter than I am and has yet to buy a fancy car like I did @ age 23. He's over due @ age 35.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:54 pm

Crimsontide wrote:Ok, so this is starting to get interesting now. Until the Model 3 was announced I had completely ruled out the electric car as an alternative for me. Big question for me is, what caveats should be considered when reading the published 215 miles range? What can one really expect to see range-wise, is this cruising at highway speeds of 70+MPH as I do now or is it a mix of stop and go and highway miles? Is the "real" range derated by 30% or so considering terrain, head winds, temperature, etc...?
Conditions and driving style certainly affect the range, as they do in any car. Some people drive a Prius and can only get 38 mpg others drive it in the same conditions and get 50 mpg. Less aggressive driving will allow you to get closer to the "rated range".
For example, people "hypermiling" the Model S have gone over 550 miles on a single charge. While others going 120mph on the autobahn for 20 minutes straight burn through it much faster! :beer

Depending on your budget it is likely the even the Model 3 will have the option to "upgrade the battery" for more range as well.

It's one of those things where if you know you are going to be "pushing it" on range you should drive less aggressive to conserve. Whereas if you know you're only are going 100 miles at most you can can drive with a heavy foot.
Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking. -Marcus Aurelius

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Longdog » Fri Apr 01, 2016 7:55 pm

Crimsontide wrote:Ok, so this is starting to get interesting now. Until the Model 3 was announced I had completely ruled out the electric car as an alternative for me. Big question for me is, what caveats should be considered when reading the published 215 miles range? What can one really expect to see range-wise, is this cruising at highway speeds of 70+MPH as I do now or is it a mix of stop and go and highway miles? Is the "real" range derated by 30% or so considering terrain, head winds, temperature, etc...?
I believe that's the "real" range but obviously it is based on assumptions about typical driving. It is less in cold weather, and if you drive aggressively it is also less. For most people, most of the time, it is more than sufficient to cover their daily driving needs. But if you regularly drive hundreds of miles a day, it doesn't seem like the best choice of cars. If you regularly drive, say, up to 170 miles per day, then no problem. I'd be a little hesitant if I regularly drove 200 miles per day because it's cutting it close, but depending on where the regular driving is, there could even be supercharging stations that solve that problem. For longer trips, then the supercharger network is in place, but as others said, that may divert you or cause you to take a longer time than if you were driving an ICE (internal combustion engine) car.
Steve

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:03 pm

Crimsontide wrote:Ok, so this is starting to get interesting now. Until the Model 3 was announced I had completely ruled out the electric car as an alternative for me. Big question for me is, what caveats should be considered when reading the published 215 miles range? What can one really expect to see range-wise, is this cruising at highway speeds of 70+MPH as I do now or is it a mix of stop and go and highway miles? Is the "real" range derated by 30% or so considering terrain, head winds, temperature, etc...?
The impression I have from the Tesla forum is that people get 85-90% of the stated range, due to speeding, weather, regenerative braking, tire choice, and a zillion other things (eg, how long an iPhone battery holds a charge depends on your app usage, Bluetooth, etc).

ETA: there are graphs that show power usage (including the energy "gained" by regenerative braking). I hope to understand them better in the next few days. A cool feature, IMO, is that when you have selected a navigation location, your range is reported as an estimate of how much range you'll have left when you arrive.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Kevin M » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:15 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:@Kevin M, in addition to the range reducers you mentioned, for those of us not lucky enough to be living in California, cold temperatures will affect range also.
Yeah, forgot to mention that one, since it hasn't affected me much yet. Most driving at 50 degrees F or higher. Of course if I were to head up to Lake Tahoe in winter, I'd be looking at both the cold and climbing uphill effects. But then coming back I'd be charging the battery for quite a few miles coming down the hill (it's fun watching the energy consumption display showing large negative Wh/mile over previous five miles, and your state of charge and rated miles increase driving down long hills). I would like to drive the AWD in the snow though--maybe next winter.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by abuss368 » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:17 pm

No interest.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by sambb » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:32 pm

Love technology, but I have a family member with a Model S. Underwhelmed. Interior did not match up to a 100k car. Acceleration is ok, but even a benz or bimmer at same price have very good acceleration, and who goes 0-60?. Range in the winter was horrendous - esp in very cold areas. Range Overstated on their website. And, a fender bender took months and months to even get parts - a total nightmare. And still is a problem. Good car as a third car however. I didn't hate the car, just thought it was overrated. TO me it is more of a 40-50k car (the S).
I am not opposed to tesla, just don't think they are great. I am glad, however, that they are out there because it forces all car companies to get better. Capitalism and competition are good. I am sure the Model 3 will be popular and that's good. I like a lot of cars. I don't think the tesla is head and shoulders above any others. I don't see why lithium batteries and coal based electricity are somehow better or worse than gasoline.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by knpstr » Fri Apr 01, 2016 8:59 pm

sambb wrote: I don't see why lithium batteries and coal based electricity are somehow better or worse than gasoline.
2 points.
1. The grid can become "cleaner". But coal generated 33% of all electricity in the USA in 2015, so 67% is non-coal electricity already (not that it is all clean either)
2. Battery powered cars use energy more efficiently the 85kwh pack had a range of 265 miles and gets 89 MPGe... so its like that Model S has a 3 gallon gas tank.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Dimitri » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:14 pm

I thought about it but honestly don't see how I could justify buying a car that I couldn't drive down to Los Angeles without having to stop to charge. That said, Tesla was a major topic of conversation at lunch today. Everybody watched last night's release. But nobody bought for a variety of different reasons. What we were wondering is how many people would have bought if they weren't receiving a government subsidy (tax credit - both federal and in some cases state)? We suspect the number would be very significantly lower. If that is the case it doesn't likely bode well for sales once the subsidy ends. One of my coworkers decided to take this thesis a bit further and shorted over $100K of TSLA today. That took some real conviction. It will provide us with some good conversation in the coming weeks.
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by wrongfunds » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:29 pm

My bank pays 0.5 % interest on savings. I believe I can afford to lose ten dollars by providing my $1000 to Elon Musk for two years :-)

I finally got the confirmation email but it still does not have my priority number in it.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by Big Dog » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:33 pm

I don't see why lithium batteries and coal based electricity are somehow better or worse than gasoline.
The feds have a carbon footprint website by state and even in coal-heavy states like West Virginia or Wyoming (which use coal for generating electricity), electric vehicles still have a smaller carbon footprint. In other state, EV's have ~half the footprint.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:41 pm

Dimitri, TSLA up 3.4% today. I learned not to do that kind of thing when DEC, who had the most elegant OS (VMS), tanked.

Full disclosure: I bought a pretty loaded X, and I might well buy another soon. I have a genius-crush on Elon Musk. But, as much of a fan as I am, I will not go long or short Tesla (other than via TSM).
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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by mass88 » Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:49 pm

While I am not in the market for a new car, I've been a big fan of Tesla from the beginning and love what they're doing. It's unfortunate several states have banned their sales due to flawed and outdated thinking. I hope the model sells well and pushes innovation further.

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Re: Tesla Model 3 anyone?

Post by letsgobobby » Fri Apr 01, 2016 10:08 pm

It's completely refundable so no risk.

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