How long do used cars typically last?

Questions on how we spend our money and our time - consumer goods and services, home and vehicle, leisure and recreational activities
Topic Author
ThankYouJack
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

How long do used cars typically last?

Post by ThankYouJack »

How long would you expect a Japanese brand car to last if the owners treated it well and did all of the schedule maintenance?

I've always had very good luck with my cars (even with neglecting a decent amount of maintenance).

For people who don't drive a lot (less than 10,000 miles a year), it seems like buying a pristine high mileage used car could save significantly.

It would be neat if there was a New vs Used vs Lease Car calculator like the NYT rent vs buy home calculator.
Jack FFR1846
Posts: 18502
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:05 am
Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

You have to do the math and determine your skill level. 3 years ago, I bought a 21 year old Honda CRX for my son to learn to drive. I am mechanically inclined and even if the engine blew up, could easily replace it for $300 complete. I could probably have put 900,000 miles on it.

Now that I think about it, my 87 Honda CRX racecar had something like 300k miles on it when I bought it.

It's a matter of how willing you are to do the work. Do you put a $75 alternator in a car that's only worth $100? I say yes because a $20k new car will cost you more than that $75 alternator.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
sport
Posts: 12094
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 2:26 pm
Location: Cleveland, OH

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by sport »

Not all Japanese brands are equivalent. All models within a brand are not the same. If you specify a make and model, perhaps you will get more meaningful responses.
denovo
Posts: 4808
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:04 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by denovo »

sport wrote:Not all Japanese brands are equivalent. All models within a brand are not the same. If you specify a make and model, perhaps you will get more meaningful responses.
And some years were better than others for certain models. Consumer Reports collects good data on this that has matched my experience on cars I have owned. In theory, you could keep a car in perpetuity if you replace everything that breaks. For me there's certain repairs where I think you need to call quits when it comes up i.e. auto transmission goes bust, engine needs to be rebuilt, etc.
"Don't trust everything you read on the Internet"- Abraham Lincoln
Topic Author
ThankYouJack
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by ThankYouJack »

sport wrote:Not all Japanese brands are equivalent. All models within a brand are not the same. If you specify a make and model, perhaps you will get more meaningful responses.
07 Honda Pilot -- or something similar that gets all full red circles (except one half) on Consumer Reports.
Teague
Posts: 2524
Joined: Wed Nov 04, 2015 5:15 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Teague »

ThankYouJack wrote:How long would you expect a Japanese brand car to last if the owners treated it well and did all of the schedule maintenance?
...
Probably just about forever, particularly if you had no choice. Look at all the old cars running around Cuba. Little if any parts availability, but through ingenuity and circumstance the Cubans keep 'em going. Remarkable, really.

The answer to your question largely depends on your value of time - i.e. when is it no longer worth the hassle of keeping the car on the road?
Semper Augustus
123
Posts: 10415
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:55 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by 123 »

Cars last like people. Some are around a long time. Others don't last too long for a variety of reasons.

YMMV
The closest helping hand is at the end of your own arm.
new2bogle
Posts: 1779
Joined: Fri Sep 11, 2009 2:05 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by new2bogle »

123 wrote:...
YMMV
Literally!
psteinx
Posts: 5801
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:24 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by psteinx »

Cuba is indeed an example that cars don't magically become useless at a certain mileage level, age, or even given a particular breakdown/need for repair.

Rather, there comes a point when the overall equation of keeping a car on the road (repair cost vs. how well the car performs on measures like reliability, safety, appearance and comfort) shifts such that its better for most folks to replace rather than repair the car.

i.e. Even an old broken down car can generally be repaired and kept on the road, it's just not usually worth it beyond some point.

To some extent, that point depends on the owner's interest in maintaining and keeping the car, repair skills, time they're willing to put into the car, and so on.
flyingbison
Posts: 1363
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2014 8:52 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by flyingbison »

psteinx wrote:
... i.e. Even an old broken down car can generally be repaired and kept on the road, it's just not usually worth it beyond some point.
Not in road salt country :(
User avatar
David Jay
Posts: 14586
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:54 am
Location: Michigan

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by David Jay »

Nobody seems to want to give you an answer, but a (I'll pick one) Toyota Corolla drive train should go a quarter million miles. In warm climates the body will last as long as the drive train. Up north - I'm from Michigan - a dozen years should be no problem. I bought my daughter a 2000 Corolla (in 2005, with 130,000 miles) and she drove it until 2013. Body was showing some rust.

Bought it for $3500, she drove it for 10 years, sold it for $2000. Had to put brakes and tires on it.
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
User avatar
retiredjg
Posts: 54082
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 11:56 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by retiredjg »

I've had 3 or 4 used Toyotas and each one was just great. I'm looking for another one now.
surfstar
Posts: 2853
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by surfstar »

I purchased a Civic with 142k miles and at 13 years old. I have complete confidence in its reliability and it is used by my sister for a 100mile daily commute, while getting 40-42 mpg. It just passed 200k the other week.

My 'newest' car is an '05 and a Saturn! 140k miles

Don't let age or miles scare you. If you did your homework and purchased a vehicle with few known problems, you can get it going as long as you want.
nordsteve
Posts: 1104
Joined: Sun Oct 05, 2008 9:23 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by nordsteve »

My parents have a 1999 Toyota Sienna with 190k miles on it and no rust. They're snowbirds, so it sits inside during the snow season.

Other than the electrically operated rear doors, it works fine and hasn't required any major maintenance.
Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Rodc »

If you buy three years old it will last about three years less than a new one.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
User avatar
dm200
Posts: 23214
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:21 pm
Location: Washington DC area

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by dm200 »

Rodc wrote:If you buy three years old it will last about three years less than a new one.
Wow! Can we "quote" you on that?
white_water
Posts: 232
Joined: Sun Oct 27, 2013 1:16 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by white_water »

My newest is an '05 Toyota Tacoma bought 8 1/2 yrs ago. No problems, routine service only. Similar to other Toyotas I've owned. Can't say the same for Subaru where stuff started falling off at 2 yrs.

Note: living at 6200 ft elevation w/ snow and cold winters, driving includes more or less regular trips of 2000 miles as well as local trips pulling a boat trailer, utility trailer, trips for building materials, dump runs, etc.
reggiesimpson
Posts: 1697
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2011 11:47 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by reggiesimpson »

When it starts bleeding red from repairs its time to move on.
randomguy
Posts: 11295
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by randomguy »

psteinx wrote:Cuba is indeed an example that cars don't magically become useless at a certain mileage level, age, or even given a particular breakdown/need for repair.
I think in you will find in Cuba that there are fewer and fewer cars all the time as ones get canabilized to keep other ones running.

Getting 15 years, 150-200k miles is a good guess for most cars. You can definitely get more but at some point you end up at the upper end (top 20%) rather the the normal cases. And a lot comes down to where you live (i.e. road salt ), how the car is housed (sitting out in 120 degree heat in the sun isn't great compared to sitting in a garage), how it is driven (50 hwy miles versus 10 5 mile trips), and how it is maintained among a zillion other things.


Buying high mileage car can be a great deal. It can also suck when you draw the short straw and get the 3k repair 1 year after buying it
User avatar
Kenkat
Posts: 9549
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 10:18 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Kenkat »

My experience is that cars tend to start needing some repairs at around 10 years given fairly typical mileage (100-120k). Typically these repairs are affordable and make economic "sense" if the car still meets your needs. At around 15 years and 150-175k, you get into that territory where something might break that might mean the end of the line. This may not happen, but at 15+ years, I start to feel like I am living on borrowed time.

Often I think age wears them out as much as mileage.
Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Rodc »

Here is what I do.

While a given car might last 200K or more miles without too much trouble, I think that is not a smart bet. Figure something more like 150K before serious repairs that might cause the demise of the car. (this reduces risk of making a poor decision). Age as noted above also seems to matter so 15 years or so.

Figure in some brake work and tires and such to take a given used car to 150K miles. Remember many cars need at least something beyond simple wear items to get to 150K (not all, but as risk mitigation you should not count on totally smooth sailing).

Do the same for a new car you might want.

Subtract some estimate of the residual value at 150K miles.

Now you have a rough estimate of the cost to own and divide by the miles left before you hit 150K miles.

That gives you cost per mile as a basis for comparison.

This is of course only rough, but given the uncertainly in future repairs and such is good enough to tell the difference between really good deals and poor deals. Two deals that come out similar you just pick on subjective judgement as they are close enough otherwise that money is not all that different.

You could also factor in higher insurance for the new car if you want.

But then there are subjective criteria. New you get to more easily pick the options (and in particular this is important if you do not want lots of bells and whistles as most used cars seem to have them and sellers seem to want to be paid for them). Also, new may have significantly better safety features.

And when you buy used the best miles are gone.

Factor in your time in searching for the right used car vs buying new and you just order what you want.

I used to only buy used (very used when young, 2 years old when I was more established). But finding desirable late model cars at truly good prices seems to have become harder, so more recently I have just bought exactly what I wanted new.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
mouses
Posts: 4217
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:24 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by mouses »

I have a 1992 Buick. The only problem is occasionally the dealer's service department has to scramble to find a part or actually make one.
User avatar
N1CKV
Posts: 864
Joined: Wed Mar 21, 2012 8:18 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by N1CKV »

You might do better to get out of the mindset that the Japanese cars are better than everything else. The premium they demand just isn't worth it.
American makes are a lot more reliable than some would have you believe. I know plenty of vehicles made by GM and Ford that will go an easy 250,000 miles.
Dodge trucks with a Cummins can do it too, the body is usually the first/biggest problem, even in warm weather states.
Topic Author
ThankYouJack
Posts: 5704
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:27 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by ThankYouJack »

N1CKV wrote:You might do better to get out of the mindset that the Japanese cars are better than everything else. The premium they demand just isn't worth it.
American makes are a lot more reliable than some would have you believe. I know plenty of vehicles made by GM and Ford that will go an easy 250,000 miles.
Dodge trucks with a Cummins can do it too, the body is usually the first/biggest problem, even in warm weather states.
I agree about the premium. Fortunately I think you can score some great deals on Japanese cars if you act quickly and find a great seller. I usually check Consumer Reports and base reliability on that along with experience. I'm glad that American cars are becoming more reliable.
magneto
Posts: 1060
Joined: Sun Dec 19, 2010 9:57 am
Location: On Chesil Beach

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by magneto »

Thing that strikes home in this thread and similar is how much body protection has improved in the last twenty years or so. Some use of galvanising and other body protection techniques has worked wonders.

Own rule of thumb mid to late last century, used to be 10 years after which body rot became irrepairable (built in obselesence). Now 10 years seems to be mid-life.

Today discussion mostly centres on drive-train issues.
'There is a tide in the affairs of men ...', Brutus (Market Timer)
rec7
Posts: 2369
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:22 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by rec7 »

Consumer Reports (www.consumerreports.org/) says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles. Of course, some well-built vehicles can go 15 years and 300,000, if properly maintained.
Disclaimer: You might lose money doing anything I say. Although that was not my intent. | Favorite song: Sometimes He Whispers Jay Parrack
User avatar
White Coat Investor
Posts: 17413
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:11 pm
Location: Greatest Snow On Earth

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by White Coat Investor »

kenschmidt wrote:My experience is that cars tend to start needing some repairs at around 10 years given fairly typical mileage (100-120k). Typically these repairs are affordable and make economic "sense" if the car still meets your needs. At around 15 years and 150-175k, you get into that territory where something might break that might mean the end of the line. This may not happen, but at 15+ years, I start to feel like I am living on borrowed time.

Often I think age wears them out as much as mileage.
That's exactly it. Borrowed time. I'm on borrowed time with my Durango. I paid $4K for it 5 years ago. It's supposedly still worth $3K. I'm sure I could sell it for $2K by the weekend. But at 13 years and 170K miles, any significant repair and its dead because I'm not going to do another $3-5K repair like a transmission. $2K....maybe.

But if someone only drives 5K miles a year, a car can basically last forever. 20 years only gets you to 100K miles, and that's really only half the life of many cars.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course
CoAndy
Posts: 902
Joined: Thu Jun 06, 2013 4:45 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by CoAndy »

Obviously, it is very dependent on whether the majority of miles are spent cruising the highway or bumper to bumper city traffic. For the average driver that does a combination of the two and who takes care of the car, I see 300k miles as being sort of what is expected, provided the car is serviced and maintained properly and driven properly as well. My uncle has about 270k on his Honda Accord.
User avatar
FuyuKei
Posts: 168
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2015 4:24 pm
Location: San Jose, CA

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by FuyuKei »

Instead of time you need to look at approx how many miles you can usually get out of a car before you need major repair. That information is listed in many websites. As mentioned, you'll need to get specific about model, make, and year.
rooms222
Posts: 824
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2013 1:12 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by rooms222 »

In rust country, I have found Toyota and Mazda to still have weaknesses in rusting out quicker than other cars. Honda is roughly comparative to most American cars which do have advantages in that area. There is some softness in the user car market if you are flexible on what you are looking for.
User avatar
Watty
Posts: 28860
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:55 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Watty »

One hidden cost of keeping a car until it dies is that you may then need to buy a replacement car in a hurry and even rent a car while you are looking for another car. This can cause you to buy a car in a hurry if you don't have a backup car available and that can be expensive.

I had to buy a replacement car in less than two weeks once while I working full time. It was at a time when new cars were selling well and there were not any good deals on the new cars I was interested in at that time. I then looked at used cars but I didn't have the time to look at a lot of cars. I ended up buying a used Camry from the Hertz rental car sales outlet.

It ended up being a great car but I could have gotten a better overall deal if I had more time to search for a great deal.

I don't do any major car repairs myself I don't keep cars until they have high mileage.

I don't have a firm cutoff point but my plan goes something like this;
1) When a car gets over 100k miles I start learning the current models and keep an eye out for a fantastic deal.
2) When it get up to 125K miles I would settle for a great deal.
3) When it get up to 150k miles I find a good deal.

A well maintained Honda or Toyota with over 100K miles will sell for a surprising amount but it will start requiring more maintenance so the monthly combination of depreciation and maintenance isn't all that low compared to buying and owning a new car that you keep for ten years.
randomguy
Posts: 11295
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by randomguy »

rec7 wrote:Consumer Reports (http://www.consumerreports.org/) says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles. Of course, some well-built vehicles can go 15 years and 300,000, if properly maintained.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201 ... /30821191/

IHS has the average age at 11.5 years. With 14 million cars over 25 and 44 million between 16-24 years old. You will see a lot of debates on if the life span is 150k, 200k or 250k. A lot will come down to your driving (20k/yr makes 250k a lot easier) and expectations (i.e. how do you feel about a 3k repair on a 10 year old car).
Rodc
Posts: 13601
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:46 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Rodc »

randomguy wrote:
rec7 wrote:Consumer Reports (http://www.consumerreports.org/) says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles. Of course, some well-built vehicles can go 15 years and 300,000, if properly maintained.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/201 ... /30821191/

IHS has the average age at 11.5 years. With 14 million cars over 25 and 44 million between 16-24 years old. You will see a lot of debates on if the life span is 150k, 200k or 250k. A lot will come down to your driving (20k/yr makes 250k a lot easier) and expectations (i.e. how do you feel about a 3k repair on a 10 year old car).
And I suspect to one's willingness to pour money into repairs. Different people will declare a car "scrap" at different points.
We live a world with knowledge of the future markets has less than one significant figure. And people will still and always demand answers to three significant digits.
User avatar
Epsilon Delta
Posts: 8090
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2011 7:00 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Epsilon Delta »

rec7 wrote:Consumer Reports (http://www.consumerreports.org/) says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles. Of course, some well-built vehicles can go 15 years and 300,000, if properly maintained.
Do you have a more refined cite for that?

I can find NBC saying that consumer reports said that, but I can't find consumer reports actually saying it. Given the average age of all cars is over 11 years it's prima facie nonsense. Somebody is, at the very least, taking something out of context. It would be interesting to know who, and what.
rec7
Posts: 2369
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2008 7:22 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by rec7 »

Epsilon Delta wrote:
rec7 wrote:Consumer Reports (http://www.consumerreports.org/) says the average life expectancy of a new vehicle these days is around 8 years or 150,000 miles. Of course, some well-built vehicles can go 15 years and 300,000, if properly maintained.
Do you have a more refined cite for that?

I can find NBC saying that consumer reports said that, but I can't find consumer reports actually saying it. Given the average age of all cars is over 11 years it's prima facie nonsense. Somebody is, at the very least, taking something out of context. It would be interesting to know who, and what.
I googled average life of a car. It is at the top of the page.
Life of car now is 200k going by this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_longevity
Disclaimer: You might lose money doing anything I say. Although that was not my intent. | Favorite song: Sometimes He Whispers Jay Parrack
User avatar
ClevrChico
Posts: 3259
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:24 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by ClevrChico »

A long time.

My previous Japanese car was 22 years old with 145k miles. Routine maintenance and wear item replacement was common. Collision damage is what finished her.

I think 20 years is easily doable. Possibly 30 years if you're lucky and determined.
randomguy
Posts: 11295
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by randomguy »

ClevrChico wrote:A long time.

My previous Japanese car was 22 years old with 145k miles. Routine maintenance and wear item replacement was common. Collision damage is what finished her.

I think 20 years is easily doable. Possibly 30 years if you're lucky and determined.
6.5k miles per years is less than half the national average. 22 years at 15k/yr is 330k miles. That is number that very few cars get to.

The numbers we really want is the number of years and the mileage when cars hit the scrap heap. I have never seen those stats. I can tell you that I see very few 20+ year old cars on the road while 10-15 year old models are a regular occurence.
denovo
Posts: 4808
Joined: Sun Oct 13, 2013 1:04 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by denovo »

randomguy wrote:
ClevrChico wrote:A long time.

My previous Japanese car was 22 years old with 145k miles. Routine maintenance and wear item replacement was common. Collision damage is what finished her.

I think 20 years is easily doable. Possibly 30 years if you're lucky and determined.
6.5k miles per years is less than half the national average. 22 years at 15k/yr is 330k miles. That is number that very few cars get to.

The numbers we really want is the number of years and the mileage when cars hit the scrap heap. I have never seen those stats. I can tell you that I see very few 20+ year old cars on the road while 10-15 year old models are a regular occurence.

Not all miles are created equal. City driving puts more wear and tear on a car than highway driving.
"Don't trust everything you read on the Internet"- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
ClevrChico
Posts: 3259
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:24 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by ClevrChico »

denovo wrote:
randomguy wrote:
ClevrChico wrote:A long time.

My previous Japanese car was 22 years old with 145k miles. Routine maintenance and wear item replacement was common. Collision damage is what finished her.

I think 20 years is easily doable. Possibly 30 years if you're lucky and determined.
6.5k miles per years is less than half the national average. 22 years at 15k/yr is 330k miles. That is number that very few cars get to.

The numbers we really want is the number of years and the mileage when cars hit the scrap heap. I have never seen those stats. I can tell you that I see very few 20+ year old cars on the road while 10-15 year old models are a regular occurence.

Not all miles are created equal. City driving puts more wear and tear on a car than highway driving.
I may be an outlier as all my cars have manual transmissions. I think failed automatics are a leading cause of scrapping a car.
radiowave
Posts: 3352
Joined: Thu Apr 30, 2015 5:01 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by radiowave »

Have a 2004 Honda CRV AWD. Bought new, 145K and running almost as good as the day it was new. I have a set of Firestone Winterforce tires and just had a 1 foot snowfall and the CRV just kept on ticking. The only major repair we've had is the A/C went out, compressor replaced. Still getting 24-25 MPG. Driving abt 50 mi rt workdays. Pushing for 15 years/200K before we buy our next new CRV.
Bogleheads Wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
User avatar
gatorman
Posts: 2493
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2007 9:35 am
Location: The Swamp

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by gatorman »

ThankYouJack wrote:
sport wrote:Not all Japanese brands are equivalent. All models within a brand are not the same. If you specify a make and model, perhaps you will get more meaningful responses.
07 Honda Pilot -- or something similar that gets all full red circles (except one half) on Consumer Reports.
I have an '07 Pilot, it has about 134,000 miles and has been almost trouble free. I'm thinking it might go another 100k, maybe more.
It's a great car.
gatorman
carofe
Posts: 390
Joined: Thu Mar 20, 2014 7:21 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by carofe »

Interesting article about this topic:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/autom ... wanted=all&

200,000 miles?
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.
MoneyIsntEverything
Posts: 166
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2014 9:43 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by MoneyIsntEverything »

Deleted
Last edited by MoneyIsntEverything on Wed May 17, 2017 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wiki
nodenuff2
Posts: 382
Joined: Tue Mar 06, 2012 3:08 pm
Location: Deep South

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by nodenuff2 »

My 2000 F250 has 233000 miles on it . Yes I have spent some money maintaining it but the Cost to replace it is so high it I hope it lasts another 100000. Maintaince so far transmission 2k , front end work 2k and other smaller repairs but I would drive it anywhere.
2014 No. 42 2015 No.342 2016 No. 6 2017 238 2018 no. 175 2019 no. 144 6 year average 157.83. Proves I am just an average investor.What do I know? "Good bless America land that I love..."
Spirit Rider
Posts: 13977
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:39 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Spirit Rider »

The NY Times article is a fluff piece with no data to back it up. Here are some pieces of data, each of which has some built in biases.

From the latest consumer reports annual survey reported of 1.1M participants. Hondas and Toyotas were the top ten most reported with >= 200,000 miles. CR did not report the actual percentages and this is self-reporting which always has its own problems.

Another report is from iseecars.com which aggregates 30M used car listings. Their report lists the percent of listings that are >=200,000 miles. No cars are in the top ten. The Honda Accord is twelfth (12th), with 1.6% of listings. All of the top ten are trucks and SUVs with the Ford Super Duty at 4.2% of listings. The potential bias here is that vehicles that last the longest may never get sold.

Actual data from car registrations, title applications, and maintenance data show that the average age of cars at 11.4 years with ~= 150K miles and trucks with ~= 180K.

All this leads one to conclude, notwithstanding the NY Times article and all the anecdotal posts on Bogleheads, 200K is probably the exception rather than the rule for even the most reliable makes.
User avatar
Epsilon Delta
Posts: 8090
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2011 7:00 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Epsilon Delta »

Spirit Rider wrote:
Actual data from car registrations, title applications, and maintenance data show that the average age of cars at 11.4 years with ~= 150K miles and trucks with ~= 180K.

All this leads one to conclude, notwithstanding the NY Times article and all the anecdotal posts on Bogleheads, 200K is probably the exception rather than the rule for even the most reliable makes.
These two statements are not consistent. If the average car on the road has 150k miles then most cars will get to 200k, of course they are not there yet, but they will be. There is some distortion because of the low sales around 2007, but it's not big enough to mean that reaching 200k is not typical.
Spirit Rider
Posts: 13977
Joined: Fri Mar 02, 2007 1:39 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Spirit Rider »

Epsilon Delta wrote:
Spirit Rider wrote:
Actual data from car registrations, title applications, and maintenance data show that the average age of cars at 11.4 years with ~= 150K miles and trucks with ~= 180K.

All this leads one to conclude, notwithstanding the NY Times article and all the anecdotal posts on Bogleheads, 200K is probably the exception rather than the rule for even the most reliable makes.
These two statements are not consistent. If the average car on the road has 150k miles then most cars will get to 200k, of course they are not there yet, but they will be. There is some distortion because of the low sales around 2007, but it's not big enough to mean that reaching 200k is not typical.
You conveniently left out of your quote my previous paragraph that shows a very small percentage of used car listings are >= 200K. You also are not accounting for the fact that vehicle longevity is NOT a bell curve, but rather an accelerating decline.
User avatar
Epsilon Delta
Posts: 8090
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2011 7:00 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Epsilon Delta »

Spirit Rider wrote:
Epsilon Delta wrote:
Spirit Rider wrote:
Actual data from car registrations, title applications, and maintenance data show that the average age of cars at 11.4 years with ~= 150K miles and trucks with ~= 180K.

All this leads one to conclude, notwithstanding the NY Times article and all the anecdotal posts on Bogleheads, 200K is probably the exception rather than the rule for even the most reliable makes.
These two statements are not consistent. If the average car on the road has 150k miles then most cars will get to 200k, of course they are not there yet, but they will be. There is some distortion because of the low sales around 2007, but it's not big enough to mean that reaching 200k is not typical.
You conveniently left out of your quote my previous paragraph that shows a very small percentage of used car listings are >= 200K. You also are not accounting for the fact that vehicle longevity is NOT a bell curve, but rather an accelerating decline.
I assume nothing about the distribution. I merely use the properties of average, which hold no matter the distribution.

Using total light vehicle miles per year, total number of light vehicles, average age of light vehicles and total number of light vehicles we can deduce that the average miles when scrapped is close to 200k. The only way 200k is not typical is if there is a substantial, but not large enough to be "typical", number of light vehicles running for a lot more than 200k.

The used car sales will not capture high mileage vehicles. It's not worth trading them through the formal channels. I'd expect most to either run them till they fail or pass them to family or friends.
randomguy
Posts: 11295
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:00 am

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by randomguy »

Spirit Rider wrote:
Epsilon Delta wrote:
Spirit Rider wrote:
Actual data from car registrations, title applications, and maintenance data show that the average age of cars at 11.4 years with ~= 150K miles and trucks with ~= 180K.

All this leads one to conclude, notwithstanding the NY Times article and all the anecdotal posts on Bogleheads, 200K is probably the exception rather than the rule for even the most reliable makes.
These two statements are not consistent. If the average car on the road has 150k miles then most cars will get to 200k, of course they are not there yet, but they will be. There is some distortion because of the low sales around 2007, but it's not big enough to mean that reaching 200k is not typical.
You conveniently left out of your quote my previous paragraph that shows a very small percentage of used car listings are >= 200K. You also are not accounting for the fact that vehicle longevity is NOT a bell curve, but rather an accelerating decline.
I wouldn't expect to see many 200k cars for sale. I figure once people get past 150k or so, they are driving it until it gets towed to the salvage yard. And if they get traded in, not a lot of dealers want to sell them (no profit margin for 500 dollar cars)

I wouldn't try and draw conclusions from sales/reported data. For example does honda and toyota being in the top 10 mean they are reliable or does it mean that they were the best selling cars 15 years ago among the people that buy consumer reports? Without know ratios and buying habits (do toyota owners keep there cars forever while BMW owners tend to want a different car every 7 years) you end up trying to make a conclusion to match your expectations.

Toyota right now is advertising that 90% of the camarys sold in the last 10 years are still on the road. Sounds impressive right? But I don't know about you but I have no clue what other manufactors are like. Maybe they are all at ~90% (you lose some to crashes and the megamileage people).
Loon11
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Feb 29, 2012 5:07 pm

Re: How long do used cars typically last?

Post by Loon11 »

Wow - we have old hondas that won't die. A 1993 accord with 152K, a 1987 accord with 115K, a 1986 civic wagon with 250K.
These no longer have tax since they are all > 20 yrs and they all run great. don't need them but since they cost so little and will being in so little, its great to have reliable back up cars. don't think you can go wrong with an accord, or civic.
we just bought a matrix and love it so far. Expect to get many more years and its a '07.
Agree that some of them have issues - ie, honda odyssey had transmission issues. Always check carcomplaints.com for your year vehicle.
Post Reply