Will you buy self-driving car?

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FredL
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Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by FredL » Sun May 03, 2015 3:26 pm

The first self-driving car will be on the market next year, will you buy it? If you have under age kid, or you are over 85, it may be a good idea. :mrgreen:

John3754
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by John3754 » Sun May 03, 2015 3:29 pm

It'll surely cost far beyond what I'm willing to spend on a vehicle.

S&L1940
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by S&L1940 » Sun May 03, 2015 3:31 pm

nope, I would like to see such vehicles plainly marked so that I can avoid them
it scares me that they will be using public roads as a proving and development ground
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555
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by 555 » Sun May 03, 2015 3:36 pm

Why buy one? If the car can drive itself, it can own itself! :happy

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun May 03, 2015 3:50 pm

The Tesla Model X which I will buy as soon as possible (I'm #6,xxx in line) will have some self-driving capabilities. The Model S, or some of them, will get those capabilities via an overnight wireless update during the summer.

I look forward to it. There are many people in town that, were I rich enough, I'd donate a self-driving car to in the interests of public safety. I also look forward to the day when the car will dial 911 if the driver is impaired.

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BTDT
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by BTDT » Sun May 03, 2015 3:55 pm

Absolutely. That way I can read the Bogleheads forum while traveling down the road :oops:
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by jbdiver » Sun May 03, 2015 3:58 pm

Definitely. I hate long drives. I'd love to game or watch a movie instead of counting the road markers. No question in my mind this is going to happen. The only question is, how long before we prohibit or limit manual driving? At some point insurance companies will probably offer a discount to owners of self-driving cars.

Jack FFR1846
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Sun May 03, 2015 4:00 pm

No, never, ever. Even if it's free and they pay me per mile, no. I love driving and won't have my fun taken away. I'm hoping the technology crashes and burns.
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avidsaver
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by avidsaver » Sun May 03, 2015 4:04 pm

I would definitely be interested as I can't drive myself! It would open many doors as far as independence and job opportunities (there are many areas public transportation does not cover, etc).

S&L1940
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by S&L1940 » Sun May 03, 2015 4:11 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:No, never, ever. Even if it's free and they pay me per mile, no. I love driving and won't have my fun taken away. I'm hoping the technology crashes and burns.

crash & burn, kind of brings up a painful image. of course, here in South Florida, we may wind up clogging up the canals...
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lightheir
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by lightheir » Sun May 03, 2015 4:17 pm

Absolutely, when the technology is mature - it seems to be getting there shockingly fast.

I can't wait until humans are pretty much eliminated from the task of driving. Between drinking, texting, fatigue, road rage, etc., it's a near-miracle that we don't have more fatalities than we already do. I predict that our kids will look back on our generation with horror at letting people with minimal driving competence (how hard is it to get a driver's license - not hard) put other people's lives at risk on a daily basis.

I would gladly give up driving for the safety tradeoff.

I also believe that in the future once the technology has matured, it doesn't have to be a 'all-or-none' issue. We'll almost certainly have 'augmented driving', in which you can drive your car as you would like if you choose to, but have computer backup for safety features, like alerting you to unseen threats (like a deer coming from the woods your way) and fast-than-human responses to crashes. It'll be regular driving - just better.
Last edited by lightheir on Sun May 03, 2015 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

denovo
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by denovo » Sun May 03, 2015 4:19 pm

Jack FFR1846 wrote:No, never, ever. Even if it's free and they pay me per mile, no. I love driving and won't have my fun taken away. I'm hoping the technology crashes and burns.


I second this comment, minus the crash and burn.

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linenfort
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by linenfort » Sun May 03, 2015 4:55 pm

You bet I would buy a self-driving car. Can't wait.

jbdiver wrote:The only question is, how long before we prohibit or limit manual driving?

I think about this a lot. Seems like this will take hold in Europe first, where so many people are already used to trains. Too many grumpy old Americans will give up their cars when you pry their cold dead hands off the steering wheel.

And of course, when it comes to driving, everyone is above average. :?

The most logical answer, then, is when the majority of the oldest living generation on earth is already used to car sharing / not owning a car / finding both driving and car ownership a burden.

One thing's for sure: when human drivers are off the road and all we have left are networked computer-driven cars with human passengers, crashes will nearly cease to exist.
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Hawaiishrimp
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Hawaiishrimp » Sun May 03, 2015 5:07 pm

TomatoTomahto wrote:The Tesla Model X which I will buy as soon as possible (I'm #6,xxx in line) will have some self-driving capabilities. The Model S, or some of them, will get those capabilities via an overnight wireless update during the summer.

I look forward to it. There are many people in town that, were I rich enough, I'd donate a self-driving car to in the interests of public safety. I also look forward to the day when the car will dial 911 if the driver is impaired.



Any idea how much the tesla X will cost out the door?
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by dolphinsaremammals » Sun May 03, 2015 5:08 pm

linenfort wrote:
One thing's for sure: when human drivers are off the road and all we have left are networked computer-driven cars with human passengers, crashes will nearly cease to exist.


Or the blue screen of death will take on a different meaning.

Self-driving cars will be a boon to people who are not able to drive due to physical limitations, but it would be a long time before I trusted my life to a software program. Plus the opening this gives malicious hackers.
Last edited by dolphinsaremammals on Sun May 03, 2015 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

harryw
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by harryw » Sun May 03, 2015 5:08 pm

1530jesup wrote:nope, I would like to see such vehicles plainly marked so that I can avoid them
it scares me that they will be using public roads as a proving and development ground


And you think that's more dangerous than human drivers using public roads as a proving and development ground? I live in Mountain View and have the chance to see the Google self driving cars driving around once in a while (and they are clearly marked, btw) and I already have way more trust in the technology than in the ability of the average driver.

CAMEL
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by CAMEL » Sun May 03, 2015 5:11 pm

Before I agree to let a computer drive my car, I would call my insurance agent first because the computer may be uninsurable.

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linenfort
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by linenfort » Sun May 03, 2015 5:16 pm

dolphinsaremammals wrote:Or the blue screen of death will take on a different meaning.

Self-driving cars will be a boon to people who are not able to drive due to physical limitations, but it would be a long time before I trusted my life to a software program. Plus the opening this gives malicious hackers.


Hey, they're not being driven by Windows 2000. :happy So far, Google-driven cars have a better highway safety record than humans.

Certainly there are all kinds of potential problems that will come with the technology, just as I find it hard to find peace and quiet in this age of cell phones.

I don't know what the average age of a Boglehead forum member is, but my guess is that most won't have to deal with mandatory computer driving. A few generations from now, they'll probably have no choice in the matter.
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Tycoon
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Tycoon » Sun May 03, 2015 5:21 pm

No, I will not buy a self-driving car. But if everyone else does maybe my wife will finally let me get a motorcycle.
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rob
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by rob » Sun May 03, 2015 5:21 pm

If only we had a you know poll that could ask that question :D NO - I hate driving automatics already.
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by GoldenFinch » Sun May 03, 2015 5:26 pm

No. As I've said before, I am a child of '60s, stuck in the 70s (at least partially), and I kind of like to drive. Honestly, a robot car would scare the heck out of me. What are they thinking? :shock:

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Sportswhiz00 » Sun May 03, 2015 5:27 pm

No way would I buy a self-driving car. Just like I wouldn't fly in a self-driving airplane or ride in a self-driving trolley at the airport. Oh, wait a second....

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backpacker
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by backpacker » Sun May 03, 2015 5:31 pm

Not only would I buy a self-driving car, I hope that human drivers and banned from the roads in my lifetime. :D

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by GoldenFinch » Sun May 03, 2015 5:32 pm

Sportswhiz00 wrote:No way would I buy a self-driving car. Just like I wouldn't fly in a self-driving airplane or ride in a self-driving trolley at the airport. Oh, wait a second....


Probably true. In thirty years we will all be driving in self-driving cars and think nothing of it.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Spirit Rider » Sun May 03, 2015 5:46 pm

Nope, not a chance in hell. I have been in software development for 40 years. I know what crap is under the hood (so to speak).

I would still rather fly on a de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter than any Airbus plane.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by GoldenFinch » Sun May 03, 2015 6:19 pm

Spirit Rider wrote:Nope, not a chance in hell. I have been in software development for 40 years. I know what crap is under the hood (so to speak).

I would still rather fly on a de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter than any Airbus plane.


Okay, when you put it that way (this is my last post on this thread :D) I will never buy a self driving car.

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cheese_breath
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by cheese_breath » Sun May 03, 2015 6:28 pm

FredL wrote:... If ... you are over 85, it may be a good idea.

That sort of goes along my line of thinking. I'll but one when I get so old they take my keys away.
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tadamsmar
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by tadamsmar » Sun May 03, 2015 6:31 pm

I already bought a car that has a computer that spontaneously and independently brakes all 4 wheels. I had to unless I wanted to buy a pre-2012 used car.

Most drivers have no idea of the control that their car computer already has over their car.
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jbuzolich
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by jbuzolich » Sun May 03, 2015 6:36 pm

I definitely look forward to it. Can't stand many drivers on the road especially the slow downs or lane drifts when people are gawking at something. I would much rather relax and stretch out and listen to music or read until we get to our destination.
I wonder how it will handle off road or only partially developed areas? They will figure it out but I'm curious to think about it now. We have a place at the end of a long gravel easement which would be easy to figure out but what if you were a half hour down some forest service road? What about some tight cliff side roads where it's really only the width of one true lane but you have to occasionally share with oncoming vehicles? We stumbled on one such road a few weeks ago and it was a terrifying drive even in good daylight and dry conditions.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by dolphinsaremammals » Sun May 03, 2015 6:41 pm

jbuzolich wrote:I wonder how it will handle off road or only partially developed areas? They will figure it out but I'm curious to think about it now. We have a place at the end of a long gravel easement which would be easy to figure out but what if you were a half hour down some forest service road? What about some tight cliff side roads where it's really only the width of one true lane but you have to occasionally share with oncoming vehicles? We stumbled on one such road a few weeks ago and it was a terrifying drive even in good daylight and dry conditions.


I wonder how one gets to a destination if there is a map error. Google maps once sent me six blocks wrong to a destination. Do you have to get out and hitchhike? :D Try to find a place nearby your destination that is mapped correctly? More fun if they don't know a street has become one way or turned into a pedestrian mall.
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by TX_TURTLE » Sun May 03, 2015 6:41 pm

Absolutely. It is a very desirable feature, and the way the technology is evolving you won't need to settle for a 'boring' car. Keep in mind that it can be useful for anybody, not just the very young and very old. A few years ago I hurt my wrist while snowboarding and my wife had to drive all the way back home (10+ hours trip). Stuff happens.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Stonebr » Sun May 03, 2015 6:42 pm

Biggest flop in history.

Who would want one?
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TX_TURTLE
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by TX_TURTLE » Sun May 03, 2015 6:47 pm

dolphinsaremammals wrote:
jbuzolich wrote:I wonder how it will handle off road or only partially developed areas? They will figure it out but I'm curious to think about it now. We have a place at the end of a long gravel easement which would be easy to figure out but what if you were a half hour down some forest service road? What about some tight cliff side roads where it's really only the width of one true lane but you have to occasionally share with oncoming vehicles? We stumbled on one such road a few weeks ago and it was a terrifying drive even in good daylight and dry conditions.


I wonder how one gets to a destination if there is a map error. Google maps once sent me six blocks wrong to a destination. Do you have to get out and hitchhike? :D Try to find a place nearby your destination that is mapped correctly? More fun if they don't know a street has become one way or turned into a pedestrian mall.


Maps are not perfect, but this wouldn't be very different from using the existing navigation aids. If you realize the suggested route is clearly wrong (like, they are sending your through a trail apt for a mountain bike) you will have an option to override the SW. Same if the SW is trying to drop you at the wrong address because it is a new development and not even Google maps has it right. Clearly, you will still need to pay attention.

aaronl
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by aaronl » Sun May 03, 2015 6:49 pm

No - I would rather continue to bike, walk, take public transit, and occasionally use Uber.

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WingsFan4Life
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by WingsFan4Life » Sun May 03, 2015 6:53 pm

Oh yes! Can't wait to sleep through most of a 12+ hour drive home :happy

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topper1296
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by topper1296 » Sun May 03, 2015 6:57 pm

Yes, but will wait for the tech to advance more.

On a related note, this would render the idea of a designated driver to pretty much useless.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Harold » Sun May 03, 2015 6:58 pm

Most drivers who find themselves in a self-driving car are going to be absolutely shocked by what safe driving really is. They're going to be looking for any override they can so they can cruise through crosswalks making pedestrians step back, gun it through the yellow light, speed, cut people off, and on and on. That is, safe driving is so alien to normal driving behavior it's going to seem bizarre as if something is very wrong. I'm probably looking forward to that awakening more than anything about this new technology.

I suspect it's going to end up being more like shared car services anyway, at least in the cities. Kind of like Uber technology where you just summon a driverless car to get where you need to go, then summon another one to get back home.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by bottlecap » Sun May 03, 2015 7:31 pm

Sure. They will happen and will likely be all that's on the road someday in the next 25 years or so. I'll probably miss driving, but will be far more free to drink during transit, so it will be a worthwhile trade-off, especially on long trips!

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Jim180 » Sun May 03, 2015 7:59 pm

I will never buy one unless I'm forced to. I would feel LESS secure if the car was in total control. I always want some control in any situation that could mean life or death.

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NaOH
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by NaOH » Sun May 03, 2015 8:01 pm

Of course there would be no need for 'high-performance' cars - 100hp 3-cylinder engines would be sufficient for everyone.


Sounds horrid.
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by nchowrin » Sun May 03, 2015 8:22 pm

aaronl wrote:No - I would rather continue to bike, walk, take public transit, and occasionally use Uber.


What if the Uber car that showed up was self-driving? I would think that the Uber management would love to dispense with those pesky drivers!

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TomatoTomahto
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by TomatoTomahto » Sun May 03, 2015 8:25 pm

Hawaiishrimp wrote:
TomatoTomahto wrote:The Tesla Model X which I will buy as soon as possible (I'm #6,xxx in line) will have some self-driving capabilities. The Model S, or some of them, will get those capabilities via an overnight wireless update during the summer.

I look forward to it. There are many people in town that, were I rich enough, I'd donate a self-driving car to in the interests of public safety. I also look forward to the day when the car will dial 911 if the driver is impaired.



Any idea how much the tesla X will cost out the door?


There are no prices known yet, but a loaded one will probably cost around $100k. There are less expensive Model S configurations, but Tesla is not an inexpensive car.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by peppers » Sun May 03, 2015 8:51 pm

So, when your self driving car malfunctions and breaks down on the highway, do you contact a mechanic or tech support?
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555
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by 555 » Sun May 03, 2015 8:55 pm

I remember many years ago traveling on a type of self-driving vehicle which looked like a moving staircase and conveyed me diagonally from one level to another. Another type of self-driving vehicle was more like a box with doors which conveyed me vertically from one level to another. Another type of self-driving vehicle was more like a moving long rectangle of floor which conveyed me horizontally. Another type of self-driving vehicle was where I was in a little cabin suspended from a moving rope. Another type of self-driving vehicle was a driverless train and also a driverless streetcar.

These driverless vehicles are basically public transport, and there is nothing new about it.

If the streets became dominated by self-driving cars, then in a lot of situations, especially on the highway, long chains of cars would essentially form trains. For all intents and purposes you'd be a passenger on a train.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by Wildebeest » Sun May 03, 2015 9:05 pm

rob wrote:If only we had a you know poll that could ask that question :D NO - I hate driving automatics already.


If it was a poll, there would be more votes than posts.

I would love a self driving car.

I will buy it as soon as it comes down to $50,000 and has leather seats.

I, for one, will be less of a danger to others and my self.

I have not had a ticket in 10 + years and other than backing out in parking lot, have not caused any damage and definitely never caused any major damage or physical harm, but it was not for lack of attention.

There is more to life for me than operating a vehicle. I do love a stick shift, but it is a pain with a cup of coffee in one hand and trying to read my Email in the other hand, while sitting in stop and go traffic while listening to books on CD ( texting requires major concentration for me, and I do not do that).


May be if I could drive 100 mph on a winding road, I would not want a self driving car.
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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by StormShadow » Sun May 03, 2015 9:31 pm

Eventually, yes... as the price comes down and the technology improves. For one, DW is terrified of driving, and was ecstatic when she heard that self-driving cars were finally coming to the market. Also, at some point most of us will lose the ability to safely control a motor vehicle. I don't think I'll be the exception. A self-driving car would be a nice alternative to public transportation/taxi/van service... etc.

Anyhow, I suspect "self-driving" will become a standard option for most cars in the not-so-distant future.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by leftcoaster » Sun May 03, 2015 9:44 pm

I'm definitely interested.

A few thoughts on the technology and its future:

Machines will have a policy of "failing over" to a human when need dictates. As drivers become less skilled (16 year olds won't have as much practice if the car drives most of the time), this policy will make less and less sense. It'll make a lot less sense if people drink and then self-drive.

It won't be possible to get anywhere in a hurry. I'm sure most people here don't obey speed limits 100% of the time, but self-driving vehicles will.

Self-driving cars could be an interesting alternative to trains, especially here in California. Because computer-controlled cars can communicate with one another at very high speeds, there's no reason 2+ cars couldn't gang together inches apart and form an impromptu train, with reduced wind resistance for the whole caravan. It might even make sense to develop a subsidy for this purpose.

Self-driving cars will surely be safer than human-driven cars: they'll have conservative algorithms. Their cameras and sensors will have 360 degree vision. They will slow/stop when that makes sense in resolving a problem (humans generally don't). Their software will be updated with new algorithms based on very large data corpuses, while humans will continue to rely on their own limited experience. They won't drink, knit, pump breast milk, read, fiddle with the radio, make cell calls, text, or do anything other than drive while driving.

Self-driving cars could become an interesting business model for Uber, etc. Put your car to work driving others around when you are not using it. The limiting factor will be human behavior: without a driver in the car, people may leave a mess in the seats.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by vitaflo » Sun May 03, 2015 9:46 pm

jbdiver wrote:The only question is, how long before we prohibit or limit manual driving?


Probably around the same time they prohibit horse riding. People are way too scared of this, and have an over-inflated sense of how well they drive. A computer can pay attention to the road constantly. You can't.

Nevermind that almost every plane you fly is fully automated at this point. Nobody seems to have a problem with that.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by 555 » Sun May 03, 2015 9:57 pm

vitaflo wrote:People are way too scared of this, and have an over-inflated sense of how well they drive. A computer can pay attention to the road constantly. You can't.
Nevermind that almost every plane you fly is fully automated at this point. Nobody seems to have a problem with that.
Planes don't fill the sky as densely as cars fill the road. It has to be ensured that the effects of one car malfunctioning don't propagate through a large population of cars, causing 100 car pileups and such.

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Re: Will you buy self-driving car?

Post by freebeer » Sun May 03, 2015 10:12 pm

Spirit Rider wrote:Nope, not a chance in hell. I have been in software development for 40 years. I know what crap is under the hood (so to speak).

I would still rather fly on a de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter than any Airbus plane.


So, do you have any data about the objective safety record of de Havilland DHC-6 Twin Otter vs. any model of Airbus (e.g. fatalities per passenger-mile flown)? From
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Havilla ... _incidents I am not sure I would agree with you.

Anyway I think OP's question is poorly titled. Very very few of us will buy the first self-driving car (which from the text of his post seems to be what he's really asking), and rightly so... it will be too expensive and not that good. Just like very very few of us bought the first consumer digital cameras in the mid 1990s... 0.25 megapixel for $750+, why should we have? But 20 years later almost all of us have digital cameras and I similarly predict that in 20 years almost all of us will be using self-driving cars... at some point the incremental cost will be very low since the basic automobile systems don't need to change to add it and safety and productivity gain overwhelming.

Locked