I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

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drawpoker
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by drawpoker »

All the "fun" of lottery tickets was taken away for me years ago. If anyone here has had a family member who was hooked on the lottery they will know what I speak of.

Yes, I live in a state that allows winners to claim anonymously. But it is also a state where mental competency exams for elderly consist of little more than knowing name, address, what day of the week it is, and who is presently in the White House. The issue of the elderly person (in my case, mother) spending thousands of dollars a year on lottery tickets, then asserting the drawing was "rigged" when she didn't win on Wed or Sat nights, yet still upping the no. of tickets purchased for the next drawing, apparently merits no attention.

No one in the family was willing to confront her about this except me and my daughter, so that immediately made us the "bad guys".

Enjoy your dreams and continue to buy your tickets - but a word of advice. If close family member develops obsession about winning, and deluded thinking, neither the medical community or legal community will be of any help in restricting her funds (unless the gambler is exhibiting other kinds of cognitive disorder & behavior that meet criteria for guardianship order)
Boglegrappler
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Boglegrappler »

Good observation.

I buy tickets when the jackpot gets large.

As far as the irrationality, I think it makes sense in moderation. Our old finance professor thought it was irrational because of the negative expected value. But that ignores that we thing insurance is rational, and it also has a negative expected value. If it makes sense to insure yourself against unlikely large negative financial events, its also makes sense to shell out a couple of bucks from time to time to give yourself "upside exposure" to an unlikely large positive financial event.

I also like the lump sum options. I've never been able to figure out whether the lottery annuity obligations are general obligations of the states, or whether they're only obligations of the lottery itself. In either case, there is some risk in taking the stretched out payments (although probably not a lot).

Good luck.
ieee488
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by ieee488 »

I normally don't buy lottery tickets.

But they are doing a lottery pool here at work, so I am in. :happy
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singern
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by singern »

Odds are 1 in 175 Million...

Ill take those odds. :sharebeer

If I win, beers are on me...forever :mrgreen:
I haven't "needed the money" since I took Archie's milk money in the third grade.... but I like it - The Departed, 2006.
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artiegene
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by artiegene »

singern is da man!
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chumpzilla
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by chumpzilla »

FireProof wrote:
AZAttorney11 wrote: The expected return of a Powerball ticket PEAKS at about -57% (i.e. you can expect 0.43 per dollar) - those darn ties!
So current cash value of $337.8M? Would maybe see ~ $145M? If I dumped into VPALX, the wife and I could probably manage to scrape by on ... $44K/mth? :shock:
I'm in.
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gas_balloon
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by gas_balloon »

noyopacific wrote:Even lottery winners are often losers in the end (they squander the money.)
I hope you win and then demonstrate that the tenants of Boglehead-ism can help you overcome this kind of challenge !
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/10/pf/lott ... rs-losers/
I would hope that an average boglehead lottery winner would not fall in that bucket. Old habits die hard, and for me, my lifestyle has not changed much even after near-doubling of my take-home pay... Although I have never "invested" in a powerball ticket.
I wonder if there are any bogleheads lottery winners who got a decent payoff...
mardee
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by mardee »

I buy one ticket. I realize that the odds of winning are slim at best.....but without at least one ticket the odds are zero.
denovo
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by denovo »

noyopacific wrote:Even lottery winners are often losers in the end (they squander the money.)
I hope you win and then demonstrate that the tenants of Boglehead-ism can help you overcome this kind of challenge !
http://money.cnn.com/2015/02/10/pf/lott ... rs-losers/
I suspect that if a Boglehead won a lottery with 90 million in cash proceeds, he'd think it was a tough call whether to buy a million dollar house and there'd be a 300 post thread of people convincing him it was wasteful.
"Don't trust everything you read on the Internet"- Abraham Lincoln
AZAttorney11
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by AZAttorney11 »

The jackpot is up to $500 million. I stand by my prediction that it'll be at least $525 to $550 million before the drawing. I can't even imagine what I would do with that kind of coin.
LK2012
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by LK2012 »

denovo wrote:I suspect that if a Boglehead won a lottery with 90 million in cash proceeds, he'd think it was a tough call whether to buy a million dollar house and there'd be a 300 post thread of people convincing him it was wasteful.
Very funny, and absolutely right!

I bought a couple Powerball tickets for tonight's drawing a few days ago. Plus the PowerPlay option.

You gotta be in the game to have a shot at winning, and the payoff is worth a couple bucks. It's fun while the anticipation lasts.
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cheese_breath
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by cheese_breath »

OP, hope this isn't you...

Husband says... "What would you do if I won the lottery?"

Wife says... "I'd take my half and leave you."

Husband says... "I won twelve dollars yesterday. Here's six for you. Keep in touch." :D :D :D
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
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artiegene
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by artiegene »

Holy crap! That's the funniest thing I've heard all day!
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gas_balloon
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by gas_balloon »

cheese_breath wrote:OP, hope this isn't you...

Husband says... "What would you do if I won the lottery?"

Wife says... "I'd take my half and leave you."

Husband says... "I won twelve dollars yesterday. Here's six for you. Keep in touch." :D :D :D
:D
You have my interest peaqued. Going to get a powerball tonight. I'd say pretty good odds for this lottery, and worth the cost for $2 :D :D
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bottomfisher
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by bottomfisher »

"There’s A 67 Percent Chance Someone Will Win The Powerball Jackpot Tonight"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/powe ... bruary-11/
A $500 million advertised Powerball jackpot typically means about 191.7 million tickets will be sold, based on a polynomial regression. Given that level of turnout, we’d anticipate a 67 percent chance of at least one winner.
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cheese_breath
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by cheese_breath »

walletless wrote:
cheese_breath wrote:OP, hope this isn't you...

Husband says... "What would you do if I won the lottery?"

Wife says... "I'd take my half and leave you."

Husband says... "I won twelve dollars yesterday. Here's six for you. Keep in touch." :D :D :D
:D
You have my interest peaqued. Going to get a powerball tonight. I'd say pretty good odds for this lottery, and worth the cost for $2 :D :D
You have better odds of getting a date with Beyonce. :P
The surest way to know the future is when it becomes the past.
jlawrence01
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by jlawrence01 »

I spend between $10 and $20 a YEAR on lottery tickets. It is completely worth it for the entertainment value alone.

However, the people who lecture me that I am "wasting my money" are the generally same people who 1) head down to the local bar and toss back $10 drinks, 2) head to Starbucks as a daily return, or 3) buy some ultra-expensive vehicle that they "need".
Caduceus
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Caduceus »

Instead of buying Powerball tickets, if you really wanted to gamble, you could buy out-of-the-money call options on some stocks you research. You cannot lose more than the cost of your option, you probably won't win as much if you do win, but the odds are probably better, and you might learn something in the process.

Also, sometimes you do win big.
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joe8d
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by joe8d »

cheese_breath wrote:OP, hope this isn't you...

Husband says... "What would you do if I won the lottery?"

Wife says... "I'd take my half and leave you."

Husband says... "I won twelve dollars yesterday. Here's six for you. Keep in touch." :D :D :D
I was working with a guy who won 6 million in the NYS Lottery in 1982 and that's what happened to him.
All the Best, | Joe
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artiegene
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by artiegene »

Well my numbers didn't win. Guess I still need to go in to the office. *** Heavy Sigh *** Had some pretty sweet dreams though.
mhalley
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by mhalley »

Anxiously awaiting the "how do I manage winning a third of 500 million" post.
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tadamsmar
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by tadamsmar »

FireProof wrote: The expected return of a Powerball ticket PEAKS at about -57% (i.e. you can expect 0.43 per dollar) - those darn ties!
That expected return calculation is based on the fallacy that the utility of $500M is only 250M times the utility of $2.
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ginmqi
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by ginmqi »

mhalley wrote:Anxiously awaiting the "how do I manage winning a third of 500 million" post.
Mike
Hey now, many bogleheads probably put in a couple dollars at that dream.

And at least 3 people in Texas, North Carolina, and Puerto Rico are VERY happy this morning. And if they were active on this forum they would've posted.

People always rag on how stupid it is to play the lottery, sure of course if you spend a lot of money all the time. But for occasional entertainment and a life-changing chance at a dream, it's well worth it IMO.
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by peppers »

Once again...ahem... The various state lottery commissions would like to thank all of the non winning Boglehead ticket holders for their generous and voluntary tax donations. They look forward to your continuing support.
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Lumpr
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by Lumpr »

AZAttorney11 wrote:The pre-tax cash option value exceeds the odds of winning, so your decision isn't that irrational :sharebeer

Wait! Depending on your state of residence the after-tax value of the cash option is greater than your odds of winning. So, perhaps allocating a very, very small portion of your portfolio to Powerball is rational in some cases :mrgreen:
Redo your math.

Hint - multiple winning tickets
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by Xpe »

tadamsmar wrote:
FireProof wrote: The expected return of a Powerball ticket PEAKS at about -57% (i.e. you can expect 0.43 per dollar) - those darn ties!
That expected return calculation is based on the fallacy that the utility of $500M is only 250M times the utility of $2.
When in reality, it's less than 250M times the utility of $2.
mhalley
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by mhalley »

No way that I would post on here that I was the winner, too easy for people to figure out who I am, I would DEF be anonymous.
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toto238
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by toto238 »

anonforthis wrote:We spend about $10 a week on scratch offs and powerball tickets. We do not spend any money on beverages nor alcohol therefore this expense is well worth it. At least we get some good dreams out of this expense.
Stocks have returned an average of 10% per year since 1926. So if from age 20 until 70 you put $10 a week in stocks, you'd have over $600,000 by the end of it.

I'll delay gratification and get the $600k (even after inflation it's still the better bet).
jlawrence01
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by jlawrence01 »

ginmqi wrote:
mhalley wrote:Anxiously awaiting the "how do I manage winning a third of 500 million" post.
Mike
Hey now, many bogleheads probably put in a couple dollars at that dream.

And at least 3 people in Texas, North Carolina, and Puerto Rico are VERY happy this morning. And if they were active on this forum they would've posted.

People always rag on how stupid it is to play the lottery, sure of course if you spend a lot of money all the time. But for occasional entertainment and a life-changing chance at a dream, it's well worth it IMO.

If I won, you would NEVER hear about it on or off this forum. I would remain completely anonymous for life.
madbrain
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by madbrain »

backpacker wrote:[
For that matter, with $200 million to invest, direct indexing is probably the way to go. You could hire someone to manage a portfolio of individual stocks full time and still easily save $1 million a year in expenses!
No, you wouldn't.

At $200 million you would have access to Vanguard institutional shares.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... IntExt=INT

The expense ratio is only 0.02%, which means $40,000 per year on a $200 million investment.
Therefore, you likely would not be saving anything by hiring someone to do direct indexing for you.

I actually have this fund in my large company 401k and I'm invested in it though, I'm sorry to say, I have far less than $200 millions in it.
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

One of the tickets has been claimed by a 26 year old mom in North Carolina. If true, I say good for her and her family. She certainly hasn't had an easy life - child with cerebral palsy, and she worked two jobs at Walmart and McDonalds's before having to give them up to care for that child. I like hearing stories where folks down on their economic luck are lifted up out of it. :sharebeer

P.S. I consider the 7 tickets I purchased to be a donation to her, rather than paying extra taxes. :D
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by jstrazzere »

cheese_breath wrote:You have better odds of getting a date with Beyonce. :P
So you're saying there's a chance!
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cheese_breath
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by cheese_breath »

jstrazzere wrote:
cheese_breath wrote:You have better odds of getting a date with Beyonce. :P
So you're saying there's a chance!
Maybe if you win the Powerball. :P
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by jstrazzere »

cheese_breath wrote:Maybe if you win the Powerball. :P
I can't win since I don't play.
Oh well...
:happy
musbane
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by musbane »

I think of it as a religious question.

If God doesn't want me to win, I won't.

If She wants me to win, She only needs me to buy one ticket. In my life.

I haven't bought it yet.
furwut
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by furwut »

Don't some people refer to lotteries as
the stupidity tax
?
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mojave
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by mojave »

My husband loves to get in on the Powerball when it gets high like this. I would prefer he spend it on the smaller pots - less notoriety, better chances. I honestly would not want to win the Powerball.
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by tludwig23 »

mojave wrote:My husband loves to get in on the Powerball when it gets high like this. I would prefer he spend it on the smaller pots - less notoriety, better chances. I honestly would not want to win the Powerball.
[bold added]

Aren't the odds of winning independent of the size of the jackpot? There is always the same number of possible combinations.
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lthenderson
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by lthenderson »

tludwig23 wrote:Aren't the odds of winning independent of the size of the jackpot? There is always the same number of possible combinations.
She probably meant her chances are better of not sharing it with other people should she win.

If somehow you could guarantee that you didn't have to share the ticket, you could shell out $350,000,000 and bought one ticket of every combination. You would win $500,000,000 win or a net profit of $150,000,000... at least until the tax man came. With jackpots getting larger, I wonder if this will become feasible in the future. Not sure how one would go about buying 175,000,000 million tickets in a timely manner though.
beasy44
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by beasy44 »

It would probably take like 5 years to get a ticket and mark it for every single combination

Too bad this would need to be done in 4 days...
crg11
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by crg11 »

The lottery just doesn't get me excited these days. I prefer the thought of my financial independence being self made vs. relying on a 1 in 150 million chance of striking it rich thanks to some random luck.
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lthenderson
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by lthenderson »

I just read that it would 2057 people placing bets at 20 per minute (5 per card, four cards a minute) in the time between drawings to achieve this.

The article also listed two things I didn't think about. Besides the jackpot, you would win around $63,000,000 in additional prizes from the non-jackpot winning tickets. Also, losing lottery tickets can be deducted from your winnings as gambling losses.
furwut
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by furwut »

lthenderson wrote:If somehow you could guarantee that you didn't have to share the ticket, you could shell out $350,000,000 and bought one ticket of every combination. You would win $500,000,000 win or a net profit of $150,000,000... at least until the tax man came. With jackpots getting larger, I wonder if this will become feasible in the future. Not sure how one would go about buying 175,000,000 million tickets in a timely manner though.
Something like that has already been tried/done. I wonder if lotteries today have safeguards to prevent bulk buying.
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Boglegrappler »

P.S. I consider the 7 tickets I purchased to be a donation to her, rather than paying extra taxes. :D
You can consider it that way, I suppose, but if you do the calculations, including the "house" take, and the income taxes she pays on the win, the great majority of your funds is a nice donation to the various government treasury departments (which is needed).
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tadamsmar
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead

Post by tadamsmar »

Xpe wrote:
tadamsmar wrote:
FireProof wrote: The expected return of a Powerball ticket PEAKS at about -57% (i.e. you can expect 0.43 per dollar) - those darn ties!
That expected return calculation is based on the fallacy that the utility of $500M is only 250M times the utility of $2.
When in reality, it's less than 250M times the utility of $2.
How to you arrive at that? Prospect Theory (which garnered the Nobel Prize) supports the notion that the utility of getting a chance at $500M is worth $2.
tim1999
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by tim1999 »

I bought one ticket earlier in the week. Didn't get a single number right.
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Bammerman
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Getting into the fantasy

Post by Bammerman »

Usually I look at this just like buying a movie ticket -- it's the cost of getting into the fantasy. And I do buy a movie ticket every once in a while, so why not a lottery ticket?

(But: once, when I was walking home from the bus stop with my MegaBazillion lottery ticket in my pocket, I found myself wondering how I could keep from ruining my (grown) kids' lives if I were to win a bazillion dollars. Here's what I came up with: use the dough to establish a vast charitable trust that would then hire my offspring (at a generous but not ridiculous salary) as staff to run the thing and to think up ways to distribute the money in a positive, benevolent way. Not bad, eh?)
Cigarman
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Cigarman »

Lottery Player: I bought $40 worth of tickets for the last 3 Powerball drawings and won $8. My return on my "investment" is 20%

Boglehead: I bought $40 worth of tickets for the last 3 Powerball drawings and won $8. I lost $32 or a negative return of 80%.
Dandy
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Dandy »

Not me - I'm not much of a gambler. I always get a kick out of those who are motivated to buy when the jackpot goes from $20 million to $400,000 million. Like $20,000 wouldn't change your life enough? Have fun - it is nice to have a dream. Get ready for lots of joy and stress if you win.
Paul78
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Re: I'm not a bad Boglehead [buying Powerball ticket]

Post by Paul78 »

No more so than someone is a bad boglehead for eating out, having internet, having cable, ect. That is as long as you consider it entertainment not a retirement vehicle (many many people claim buying lotto tickets/winning is their retirement plan).

It is just part of your "instant" gratification spending. For the "average" American is could be a problem (ie the average American is focused too much- money wise- on instant gratification instead of delayed gratification) but for the average boglehead I don't think it is. Honestly many bogleheads have the delayed gratification down and need to work on instant gratification a bit more...
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