Anyone cancelling travel plans?

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VictoriaF
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by VictoriaF » Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:50 pm

jebmke wrote:We have stopped watching "Dallas." Too risky.
You should put the TV set into a hazmat suite for the next 21 days.

Victoria
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westcoast
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by westcoast » Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:54 pm

We aren't canceling our travel plans, we are leaving on a Mexican cruise at the end of the month. We have our flu shots, hand sanitizer, passports and a few cloths and thats about it.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Johno » Sat Oct 18, 2014 4:54 pm

miles monroe wrote:
Frugal Disciple wrote:All of this is being overhyped for the upcoming election. Unless something changes substantially, we won't be hearing much more about it by Thanksgiving. Don't change your plans.
or....maybe its being covered up because of the upcoming election and the crap is going to hit the fan afterwards....
Both possibilities are plausible, and not mutually exclusive: some are trying to hype, some are trying to cover and issue a 'move along nothing to see here'. It's makes it harder to discern the exact truth.
I don't generally enjoy plane trips (maybe because I used to travel a lot in one job) or cruises (maybe because I was paid to be on ships in another :D ) so it's not going to affect my immediate plans. I have to go on plane trips sometimes to keep domestic peace but none scheduled for soon. I do wonder if it will start to affect those industries and the economy though. I guess it depends in part whether or how the anxiety ties into politics.

But the epidemic in West Africa itself is likely to get much worse before it gets better. That seems to be the non-political view of the international public health community. And if as the WHO predicts there are fairly soon 10,000 new cases per week in West Africa, v. something fewer than that altogether up to now, the issue of infected persons from that region ending up in the US is not going to go away after Thanksgiving. Though that's not to say the disease will ever be a true menace in this country: that seems hard to know.

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Steelersfan
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Steelersfan » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:01 pm

I flew through Dallas last week and had a four hour layover in DFW.

Didn't give it a thought.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by cantabtim » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:10 pm

Goodness no, the thought hadn't crossed my mind. Call me fool hardy but unless something very dramatic happens in the next few weeks I'm taking trips to Utah, London, Salamanca Spain, Tenerife (what is the distance of the Canaries from Liberia - as the infected crow flies?), and Rome Italy. Hopefully some of them will actually be less crowded. Silver linings and all that......

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by crg11 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:27 pm

Only travel plans worth canceling are perhaps any to the western part of Africa. Other than that, I wouldn't worry about it.

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VictoriaF
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by VictoriaF » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:37 pm

The Wizard wrote:Yes, you're being overly paranoid...
"Overly paranoid" is an overstatement. The spread of this disease is exponential, it starts slowly and then quickly rises like a hockey stick...

Image

...unless it's effectively curtailed in the early flat part.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Norris » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:44 pm

VictoriaF wrote:Many of us are going to the Bogleheads conference on 22-24 October 2014. The only expected infection spread is that of wisdom.

Victoria
LOL I'm hoping to catch a lot of that :) See you soon!

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by dgdevil » Sat Oct 18, 2014 6:53 pm

Loon11 wrote:Thanks everyone! we are going to pick up a supply of wipes, hand sanitizer, and limit bathroom use to our cabin for starters.
And...if the bottom falls out between now and Nov. 29, we will stay home.
You should do that as a matter of course, Ebola or not. Cruise ships are gnarly, and the average clientele is not exactly high class. BYO food and avoid the buffet.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by HoosierJim » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:04 pm

VictoriaF wrote:"Overly paranoid" is an overstatement.
Until you start bleeding out of your eyes. :(

Regarding personal safety - seat belts, flu prevention, avoiding handshakes, and safe driving has more bang for the buck for most of the US population.

Regarding cruise ships - many ships have you sanitize your hands BEFORE the buffet line. The trick is to use your own sanitizer(with benzalkonium chloride) AFTER you get to your table. Next time you are in a buffet line - watch how many people are eating, touching their lips - some even lick/smack their fingers enough to put Colonel Sanders (Finger licking good) to shame. Remember you touched all these spoons too. Next cruise - I am bringing my own serving spoon.

Here is a CDC statement
CDC wrote:CDC investigators believe that most of the recent norovirus infections on cruise ships were spread person-to-person through hand-to-mouth activity.

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VictoriaF
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by VictoriaF » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:13 pm

HoosierJim wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:
The Wizard wrote: Yes, you're being overly paranoid...
"Overly paranoid" is an overstatement.
Until you start bleeding out of your eyes. :(
My statement was a form of a double negative, the essence of which was that bleeding out of one's eyes is a possibility, considering which may be paranoid but not "overly" paranoid.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by john94549 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:36 pm

Two points: (a) I had no travel plans; and (b) even if I had same, rest assured they would not have been to West Africa.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Johno » Sat Oct 18, 2014 7:53 pm

Yes re exponential hockey stick, just because the media might be overreacting to the immediate threat to the US now, and it may be heightened by politics and the election, doesn't mean the underlying problem is going to disappear soon. The WHO already acknowledges this outbreak will *not* be squelched in the flat part of the stick in West Africa. And a large number of infected people in that region, and all the fall out that causes there economically and socially, will be a threat overhanging the rest of the world probably for quite awhile. An Op-Ed piece in WSJ some days ago by expert predicted that effective treatments and/or vaccines might be produced fairly rapidly if the effort is well managed, but otherwise the epidemic may not be containable just by trying to quarantine, isolate and control movements of people, by some time early next year, along the exponential path of growth.

I believe therefore the chance of actually dying of ebola as a resident of the US might still be of the tiny but hard to define variety, but the chance of it significantly messing up markets and economies worldwide is significantly greater. For example, there's plenty of other places in the world outside Africa still highly vulnerable to contagious infectious diseases, even if the rich countries are relatively less so.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by MathWizard » Sat Oct 18, 2014 8:54 pm

No change in travel plans.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by spectec » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:05 pm

HoosierJim wrote:
VictoriaF wrote:"Overly paranoid" is an overstatement.
Until you start bleeding out of your eyes. :(

Regarding personal safety - seat belts, flu prevention, avoiding handshakes, and safe driving has more bang for the buck for most of the US population.

Regarding cruise ships - many ships have you sanitize your hands BEFORE the buffet line. The trick is to use your own sanitizer(with benzalkonium chloride) AFTER you get to your table. Next time you are in a buffet line - watch how many people are eating, touching their lips - some even lick/smack their fingers enough to put Colonel Sanders (Finger licking good) to shame. Remember you touched all these spoons too. Next cruise - I am bringing my own serving spoon.

Here is a CDC statement
CDC wrote:CDC investigators believe that most of the recent norovirus infections on cruise ships were spread person-to-person through hand-to-mouth activity.
Using hand sanitizer at the table is the best way to guard against casual contamination of any kind. However, in restaurants I see most people using their hand sanitizer at the wrong time. They use it when they first sit down, after adjusting their chair, etc. , which is a good time to use it but not the best. They fail to use it AFTER touching the most contaminated item on the table - their menu.
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by celia » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:07 pm

westcoast wrote:We aren't canceling our travel plans, we are leaving on a Mexican cruise at the end of the month. We have our flu shots, hand sanitizer, passports and a few cloths and thats about it.
If I was going on a cruise, I'd probably also take clothes, unless I was thinking of skinny dipping.
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by flyingaway » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:30 pm

We booked a trip to spend the Thanksgiving week in Panama. I am not concerned about Ebola per se. However, if any passenger on the plans has remotely linked to Ebola, they may close my school since I am teaching at a university. For this reason, I am really seriously considering cancelling my trip and I will not get any money back.

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LowER
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by LowER » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:38 pm

Canceling air plans has been part of my FIRE plan all along so I will stay the course. No rebalancing needed here.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by dgdevil » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:41 pm

flyingaway wrote:We booked a trip to spend the Thanksgiving week in Panama. I am not concerned about Ebola per se. However, if any passenger on the plans has remotely linked to Ebola, they may close my school since I am teaching at a university. For this reason, I am really seriously considering cancelling my trip and I will not get any money back.
I advise you to cancel. We need millions of people like you to do the same to ensure pleasantly empty airports and planes, better chances of upgrades, and cheap purchases of XTN. You may need to change your screen name.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Ged » Sat Oct 18, 2014 9:48 pm

My wife and I have travel plans to South America and Europe over the next year. We aren't changing plans.

As far as exponential growth, somebody in the blogoshere is attempting to model this.

Image

From:

http://www.geert.io/exponential-growth-of-ebola.html

If you do a search there are some other news stories talking about the growth becoming linear over the past few weeks.

That would be good news indeed.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Loon11 » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:16 pm

Right countofmc - how to tell if someone has norovirus vs ebola? I'm sure Cozumel would say "no" to docking if anyone on board was vomiting - might result in 21 day quarantine in small cabin.
I love the "bring your own serving spoon" suggestion - great idea. If we go, sure will do this - may even bring a box of latex-free gloves and a N95 respirator.
Now that's a vacation!

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by widestance » Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:56 pm

Just got back from vacationing in Africa (east) a few weeks ago.
No regrets and no Ebola :)
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by 2stepsbehind » Sun Oct 19, 2014 5:58 am

FedGuy wrote:
Sheepdog wrote:Now, if I was scheduled for a photo safari in Africa, maybe I would, but ONLY that.
I'm not sure why you would cancel even then. The primary areas for safaris are in East Africa and southern Africa, while Ebola is currently a problem in West Africa. Would you cancel a trip to Florida because some people are sick in Oregon?
Not even "West Africa"--three countries within West Africa (Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea). Avoiding the entire region is akin to a European visitor refusing to visit Costa Rica because of the situation in Dallas.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by MSchleicher » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:09 am

I wouldn't cancel travel plans (aside from traveling to West Africa) for fear of Ebola unless I was a hermit. On any given day, you interact and cross paths with so many people. In most cases, the risk is just as great in your home city as it is anywhere else in the U.S. at this current point in time.

I wouldn't even call what is happening in Dallas to be a situation. As of right now, three people in Dallas have been diagnosed as having Ebola.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by lululu » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:41 am

miles monroe wrote:
Frugal Disciple wrote:All of this is being overhyped for the upcoming election. Unless something changes substantially, we won't be hearing much more about it by Thanksgiving. Don't change your plans.
or....maybe its being covered up because of the upcoming election and the crap is going to hit the fan afterwards....
You seriously think any hospital could keep the local news types from finding out ebola patients? Some hospital employee would be running to them with her/his hand out for money for the story faster than our heads could spin.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by camptalcott » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:02 am

Loon11 wrote:We are booked for a cruise Nov. 29 and frankly, we are wondering if its a good idea to be on a cruise ship with the current
epidemic scare. We realize its a tiny probability, but still....being in a closed ship with several thousand strangers not knowing if there is a lurking
contagion. Are we being overly paranoid?

LOL maybe just a bit. One thing I've learned to do Loon, is to disconnect from 24/7 Ebola crisis.
"He who dies with the most toys is still, nonetheless dead"

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by RobInCT » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:02 am

Going to Dallas next week for work. It hadn't occurred to me to be concerned. I'd like to say that as a result of ebola I'll be more careful about not touching the blood, vomit, sweat or other bodily discharge of any strangers, but frankly, I'm already pretty careful about that, so no worries here.

I would cancel plans to travel to Libera, Sierra Leone, or Guinea, but already I didn't have any.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by TheTimeLord » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:03 am

Loon11 wrote:We are booked for a cruise Nov. 29 and frankly, we are wondering if its a good idea to be on a cruise ship with the current
epidemic scare. We realize its a tiny probability, but still....being in a closed ship with several thousand strangers not knowing if there is a lurking
contagion. Are we being overly paranoid?
How is this different from any other time you are on a cruise ship beyond you being more aware?
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by goodenoughinvestor » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:48 am

OK, let's review: the ONLY people to catch Ebola in the US were two under-protected nurses who treated Mr. Duncan when he was at end-stage and, to put it delicately, spewing. No one else caught it from him: not the people he was living with (including the woman he was sleeping with) nor the EMS crew that brought him to the hospital. This suggests that what public health experts have been telling us all along is true: this is NOT a very contagious disease--until the patient is very ill or has died. So, I'd say taking a cruise is a very low risk. Enjoy your vacation.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Ybsybs » Sun Oct 19, 2014 11:51 am

If you thought a big outbreak was likely, a cruise ship might be an excellent place to be. If your normal routine involves a lot of public contact, you could have less contact with sick people on a ship.

I hope our medical community's vaccine testing will produce an effective treatment soon. And I hope we see no further cases come from the mismanagement of Thomas Duncan's illness.

There are currently very few known infected individuals in the US and they are all under close medical supervision. Most of us are very safe from this right now.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by rjm_cali » Sun Oct 19, 2014 12:11 pm

I visited India in the 90's during an outbreak of Bubonic Plague aka The Black Death from UK history books.

It is not as serious as Ebola but seemed to have the same scare factor - certainly made the news at the time and especially relevant to the UK due to the amount of air travel between the UK and the Indian sub-continent. Wayyyyyy more than between the Ebola countries and either the UK or USA now.

As the WHO advice was to avoid the area of the outbreak but otherwise no restrictions on travel , our insurance company said - you can't cancel but you're covered if you get it :D .

We had no plans to cancel as the outbreak was about 500 mile from where we planned to travel and we had no plans to stay in a shack with an infected person. The upside if I can all it that was the number of holiday cancellations was such that wherever we went was very quiet and tourist free. I got to see the Taj Mahal with very few other tourists.

On a financial note - some/many countries should be named and shamed when it comes to actually helping. Check out the graph to see who is helping in terms of concrete aid. Thanks China and Gulf States (Kuwait excepted) ....

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29680934

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Ged » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:23 pm

MSchleicher wrote: I wouldn't even call what is happening in Dallas to be a situation. As of right now, three people in Dallas have been diagnosed as having Ebola.

Three people were diagnosed. None of them are even in Dallas any more.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Wolkenspiel » Sun Oct 19, 2014 6:38 pm

I'm going to be on four international flights in the next 7 days. I'm mostly worry about some fat guy sitting next to me and spilling over in my seat.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by madbrain » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:08 pm

cantabtim wrote:Hopefully some of them will actually be less crowded. Silver linings and all that......
I thought that would be case when I chose to fly on 9/11/2010 - unfortunately, lots of other people had the same idea. I never saw an airport so crowded - and with so many people stopped for "random" security checks - as I did that day in Paris.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by madbrain » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:09 pm

denovo wrote: That's not to say I would cancel any plans because the chance of getting Ebola is very low but I'd much prefer to have the flu over the ebola if those were my only two choices.
Good news - you are far more likely to catch the flu when traveling than ebola.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by madbrain » Sun Oct 19, 2014 7:16 pm

I am not canceling my late December/January travel plans, which involve traveling to Thailand, Vietnam and South Korea and a total of at least 7 flights.

If the epidemic were to spread to those countries, then I might stay home and watch this movie :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DopEzgBk4dA

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by TxAg » Sun Oct 19, 2014 8:29 pm

I live four miles from Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas. We haven't changed our travel plans.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by JonnyDVM » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:22 pm

goodenoughinvestor wrote:OK, let's review: the ONLY people to catch Ebola in the US were two under-protected nurses who treated Mr. Duncan when he was at end-stage and, to put it delicately, spewing. No one else caught it from him: not the people he was living with (including the woman he was sleeping with) nor the EMS crew that brought him to the hospital. This suggests that what public health experts have been telling us all along is true: this is NOT a very contagious disease--until the patient is very ill or has died. So, I'd say taking a cruise is a very low risk. Enjoy your vacation.
Sorry, rational posts have no place on the Internet. This is a place for fear and paranoia. We are going to Mexico Wednesday for a wedding. I hope the people sitting next to me on the plane get scared and decide not to travel, more room for me. My only fear is coming back to Atlanta with a slight fever lest they wrap me up in Saran wrap and throw me in a plastic tent. I cannot wait until some new story comes along for the media to leech onto so the national fear mongering will end. I truly hope the outbreak in west Africa smolders out soon for the sake of the people living there.
Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple. -Dr. Seuss

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corner559
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by corner559 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:24 pm

Seriously? I'm amazed that as educated as people are on this board, we still get questions like this.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by pennstater2005 » Sun Oct 19, 2014 9:41 pm

I've canceled everything, including work, until this blows over.
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Sidney » Mon Oct 20, 2014 7:31 am

JonnyDVM wrote:My only fear is coming back to Atlanta with a slight fever lest they wrap me up in Saran wrap and throw me in a plastic tent.
or sealed in carbonite
I always wanted to be a procrastinator.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Ybsybs » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:49 pm

Wolkenspiel wrote:I'm going to be on four international flights in the next 7 days. I'm mostly worry about some fat guy sitting next to me and spilling over in my seat.
Don't get airsick. :shock:

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by The Wizard » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:53 pm

I'm sensing a thread shutdown here..
Attempted new signature...

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:54 pm

The Wizard wrote:I'm sensing a thread shutdown here..
Do you think the thread has become contagious?

Victoria
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by The Wizard » Mon Oct 20, 2014 1:56 pm

VictoriaF wrote:
The Wizard wrote:I'm sensing a thread shutdown here..
Do you think the thread has become contagious?

Victoria
Yes, perhaps too toxic for its own good...
Attempted new signature...

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by epilnk » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:06 pm

[(removed) --admin LadyGeek] Victoria, I didn't know about the hockey stick risk. And with NHL season starting too. I would cancel my subscription to ESPN if I had one but since I don't, how can I protect myself?

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by VictoriaF » Mon Oct 20, 2014 2:09 pm

epilnk wrote:[(removed) --admin LadyGeek] Victoria, I didn't know about the hockey stick risk. And with NHL season starting too. I would cancel my subscription to ESPN if I had one but since I don't, how can I protect myself?
Bill Bernstein's guidance applies. "Skating Where the Puck Was" keeps you on the flat side of the stick.

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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by ryuns » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:04 pm

Random interesting anecdote: I was actually on the plane, unbeknownst to me at the time, with Mr Duncan from Brussels to DC in September (where he connected to fly to Dallas), while he was apparently not symptomatic. United Airlines emailed us a week or two later to let us know, even though they were told by the CDC that they weren't required to, because there was no risk of transmission at the time. I think this was my closest brush with anything that would become so omnipresent in popular culture for a period of time.
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by ResearchMed » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:14 pm

ryuns wrote:Random interesting anecdote: I was actually on the plane, unbeknownst to me at the time, with Mr Duncan from Brussels to DC in September (where he connected to fly to Dallas), while he was apparently not symptomatic. United Airlines emailed us a week or two later to let us know, even though they were told by the CDC that they weren't required to, because there was no risk of transmission at the time. I think this was my closest brush with anything that would become so omnipresent in popular culture for a period of time.
Oh noooooooooooo!

And you are posting here!

We should now all run and hide.

More seriously, I hope that things calm down outside of the hot zone, because the countdown is over for the others who cared for Mr. Duncan, including his fiancée (I think it was?) who presumably had rather close contact, and while he was in the early SYMPTOMATIC stages.
None of his family got sick, apparently.

It's not clear how the two nurses got sick, when others didn't, and we certainly hope they are okay.

Clearly, IF there is proper equipment and care, this is not at all like the "flu" in terms of being "contagious".
Getting enough of the proper supplies, care, and now quarantine procedures overseas to contain the ongoing spread... that's the focus.

We are donating to Doctors Without Borders (MSF), and we are both a bit in awe of those who continue to head over there to help with direct patient care.

RM
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Re: Anyone cancelling travel plans?

Post by Ged » Mon Oct 20, 2014 4:21 pm

ResearchMed wrote: We are donating to Doctors Without Borders (MSF), and we are both a bit in awe of those who continue to head over there to help with direct patient care.
RM
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