Help devising winning roulette system

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InvestorNewb
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Help devising winning roulette system

Post by InvestorNewb » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:24 pm

Hello,

A few years ago, I was going to the casino every day for two weeks straight (true story). I was making $50 per day and then lost $800 on the very last day due to an extremely unlucky pattern of numbers that came up.

I have been thinking about going back, and have put more thought into my strategy. I would like to share it with you for review below. Consider yourselves lucky; I have never openly disclosed my strategy in writing before.

The strategy involves bringing a large sum of cash with me ($2,000 to be exact). The goal of the strategy is to make small but consistent wins at roulette over time at the casino by placing big bets. It involves patience, mental fortitude, and using the law of averages.

The strategy is this:

Image

1) I do not place any bets until I see that the roulette wheel has landed in Q1 (1-12) a minimum of 5 times [the more times it lands in Q1 without me betting, the better.]
Rationale: I have studied the patterns on 7 different tables. I rarely see the ball landing in one quadrant more than 5 times consecutively.

2) After the consecutive pattern shows up in Q1, I then place one $25 chip on Q2 and one $25 chip on Q3. Both bets are on the outside, which means they pay double what I put in.
Example: If it lands on Q2, for instance, I have a gain of $50 on Q2 and a loss of $25 on Q3, for a net profit of $25.

Here is why I need to bring $2,000 with me:
If I lose on the 6th spin, I have to keep doubling my bet (martingale system) in order to get my money back and to make a small gain.

6th spin: $50 loss
7th spin: $75 on Q2 and $75 on Q3
8th spin: $225 on Q2 and $225 on Q3
9th spin: $675 on Q2 and $675 on Q3

As you can see in each of the bets above, a winning spin only nets me $25 after recouping my losses. The table maximum is $1,000, so the betting stops after the 9th spin.

I'm almost ready to field test it, although it does take a lot of courage to execute.

What do you think of my overall strategy?
Last edited by InvestorNewb on Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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hicabob
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by hicabob » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:28 pm

It won't work - a roulette table has an advantage for the house no matter what bet you place and the "Martingale System" fails when you run out of $$ or hit the table limit.
Remember from basic statistics - previous spins have zero effect on future spins - that is the table has no memory.

Lucy1721
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Lucy1721 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:34 pm

And don't forget the 0 and 00 - I was just at a casino and hit the 00 twice in a row followed by the single 0 and then I left the table

Fun day
Lucy :sharebeer

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:43 pm

Buy the casino

That way, the odds are greatly in your favor
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HomerJ
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:47 pm

InvestorNewb wrote:I was making $50 per day and then lost $800 on the very last day due to an extremely unlucky pattern of numbers that came up.


And this will happen again. This is why Martingale systems fail. It's not an "extremely unlucky pattern of numbers"..

The odds do not change just because a number came up in Q1 5 times in a row.

There is a 36.8% chance you will lose your first bet if a number in Q1 (or 0 or 00) comes up... That's 14/38 possibilities.

The chance of it happening twice in a row is 13.5% (0.368 x 0.368)

The chance of it happening three times in a row is 4.9% (0.368 x 0.368 x 0.368)

The chance of it happening four times in a row is 1.8% (0.368 x 0.368 x 0.368 x 0.368)

A 1.8% chance of something happening is not an "extremely" unlucky pattern of numbers

You will make $25 982 spins out of 1000 spins = $24,550

You will lose $2000 18 spins out of 1000 spins = -$36,000

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mhc
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by mhc » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:51 pm

If you can explain how a previous spin influences the subsequent spins, I would listen. Since each spin is independent of the previous spin, your system will not work consistently enough to make a profit. If you want to see if you system really gives you an edge, then write a program to simulate your method. Run millions of simulations and see how much money you will make on average.

If your system worked, then everyone would be doing it until the casino was forced to change the rules.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Longtimelurker » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:52 pm

I think that if you believe in patterns over the rational odds of the table you are... well, gambling. Over the long run you will lose. However, if you are serious, I will gladly be the house and play against you.
Stay the course. If you can't resist greed, and fear is proven to be 2x as strong, you are doomed as an investor.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by TomatoTomahto » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:52 pm

I went to Las Vegas once for a conference (old timers might remember DECUS). A co-worker told me I should play roulette next to him. I had a girlfriend who had told me her lucky number. I played it with $20 and it came up. My co-worker told me to take the bet off the table, because the same number will never come up twice in a row. I'm a pedantic cuss, and I told him it's as likely as any number. It hit again. I laughed and said it was more fun than working, and the burly casino employee gave me a very dirty look. The number came up 3 times in a row, and then stopped coming up. In the end, I had won something like $2500, which I took home with me. Enough of that silly game.

I don't gamble at all except for the lottery. I have no desire to lose money trying to repeat my win of $2500. Otoh, I don't mind donating/losing money on the infinitesimal chance that I win many millions.

To the OP, save your money.

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HomerJ
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:54 pm

Actually, thinking about it, how do long do you stand there before you see 5 consecutive Q1 numbers? The odds are 12/38 to land there once (31.5%)

For it to hit in Q1 5 times in a row... (.315 x .315 x .315 x .315 x .315) = 0.0031 or 0.31%

Yikes. You must stand there a long time.

hicabob
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by hicabob » Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:54 pm

There is a older but classic book titled "Beat The Dealer" by Dr Thorpe that is a fun read for those with an interest in gaming and statistics. He was the MIT professor who made the casinos change their blackjack rules.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by MoonOrb » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:00 pm

The concept people have been explaining in this thread has a well-known name, it's the Gambler's Fallacy, and it accounts for why the house wins at roulette and players lose: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

If your system does work, it will be a result of good luck. Which, isn't a rare occurrence in roulette. The odds are decent enough that you can win almost half the time by betting on a single color.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by bhsince87 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:01 pm

Read this:

http://www.psyfitec.com/2014/06/g-is-fo ... llacy.html

And consider yourself lucky.... :happy
BH87

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sdsailing
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by sdsailing » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:03 pm

Your system attempts to violate the basic rules of probability, which is not possible. As with coin tosses, each spin of the wheel is independent. The patterns that you observe have no influence whatsoever on the next spin.

barnaclebob
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by barnaclebob » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:03 pm

The law of large numbers is a cruel mistress.

And you are 100% wrong.

As far as I know the only way to gain an edge on the casino is in blackjack but casinos have ways of detecting you being a card counter so it doesn't always work because they kick you out.
Last edited by barnaclebob on Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.

letsgobobby
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by letsgobobby » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:08 pm

Is this a serious thread? Surely you do not believe you've discovered a winning system at roulette?

dickenjb
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by dickenjb » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:13 pm

Please tell me this is a joke.

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Raymond
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Raymond » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:32 pm

My roommate back in the day managed to lose $3600 over four hours using your system in Las Vegas (cash advance from a credit card, no less).
This was on a second lieutenant's pay, which was not all that large back in the late 1980s.
It took him the better part of a year to pay it all back.
And this was a guy who was a physics major in college, he must have slept through his statistics classes :D

-----

As you stated, you have heard of the martingale betting system and its limitations:
1. Casino betting limits, and;
2. Requires that the gambler have infinite wealth, as the bets can grow exponentially.

You are aware of both, and yet you propose this system?

A nod to VictoriaF and other Taleb fans, the article states this is an example of a Taleb distribution ("picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.")

I say, "Go for it! What could go wrong?" :twisted:

The bigger danger is that even if you win, you will be tempted to repeat the process on a larger scale, which will very likely implode at some point.

Try card counting in blackjack, as mentioned above. However, you will eventually be found out, and muscular gentlemen in suits will escort you to the door and tell you to never come back :P

[Edit] And here's the perfect place to hone your skills: Roulette Simulator
Last edited by Raymond on Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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JoMoney
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by JoMoney » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:33 pm

I'm sorry to say that the best system is the one you have the most fun with, and no expectation of coming out ahead.
If the game is played fairly (within the typical rules) there is nothing you can do to overcome the house edge. You may get lucky, but the odds are against you no matter how you change your strategy. If you want an advantage, the only time to play would be when the odds have changed to your favor, the only time that happens is if the casino offers a promotion where they give you free money to play with - but even when such promotions happen it works against most people - casinos understand psychological conditioning quite well. Most people can't just walk away a winner, our brains infuse us with hormones and we want more. Our desire to "win" (or at least to feel that sensation) inevitably makes us losers. The only way to win is not to play.

Betting a larger and larger portion/percentage of your total bankroll (regardless if you're on a winning streak or losing streak) is also doomed to failure. Your risk goes up and up but the actual odds in the game never change. You would be certain to go bust eventually even if the game had an expected value that gave you an edge.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_ruin

There is a calculable "optimal" amount to bet to prevent the risk of ruin, but that amount will be zero in casino games (actually it's negative - the smart money is on the opposite side - "own the casino").
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham

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Clearly_Irrational
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Clearly_Irrational » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:45 pm

Heh, I think anyone that knows some math but not a lot of statistics tries this at least once. I did exactly the same thing using my Commodore 64 as a test environment way back when. As it turns out those "extremely unlucky pattern of numbers" aren't that unusual and you'll eventually go broke or hit the table limit every time. In Wall Street speak this is "picking up pennies in front of a steam roller".

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by BackOfTheNet » Mon Jun 23, 2014 3:57 pm

I actually do know of a system that works for electronic roulette.

1. Find a Casino that offers a players club card that works with electronic games.
2. Find a electronic roulette machine that has a single zero (No double zero).
3. Bet $2 on Zero, $35 on Red and $35 on Black.

Every spin you will either lose $2 (red or black) or break even (green) as the $2 bet will pay $70 @ 35-1. Stupid right? Well in addition to losing $2 every spin you are getting credit for $72 in bets on your players club card. If a casino offers a promotion, let's say play $1000 and get two free dinners, you can reach that with only 14 spins! So if $28 (loss on 14 spins) is less than value of two dinners you are guaranteed to win.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by jackholloway » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:08 pm

Raymond wrote:My roommate back in the day managed to lose $3600 over four hours using your system in Las Vegas (cash advance from a credit card, no less).
This was on a second lieutenant's pay, which was not all that large back in the late 1980s.
It took him the better part of a year to pay it all back.
And this was a guy who was a physics major in college, he must have slept through his statistics classes :D

-----

As you stated, you have heard of the martingale betting system and its limitations:
1. Casino betting limits, and;
2. Requires that the gambler have infinite wealth, as the bets can grow exponentially.

You are aware of both, and yet you propose this system?

A nod to VictoriaF and other Taleb fans, the article states this is an example of a Taleb distribution ("picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.")

I say, "Go for it! What could go wrong?" :twisted:

The bigger danger is that even if you win, you will be tempted to repeat the process on a larger scale, which will very likely implode at some point.

Try card counting in blackjack, as mentioned above. However, you will eventually be found out, and muscular gentlemen in suits will escort you to the door and tell you to never come back :P


Many casinos _love_ card counters. Very few systems have a positive net yield if the players make occasional mistakes. Table limits limit their losses, and when a high roller is playing, other people pour money into the table, which means even if the high roller is doing the system perfectly and getting their few percent edge, five other people are losing money faster. Most people also vastly underestimate their ability to count cards in a casino atmosphere, and so hone their skills on a friendly table with all the time in the world and no stress.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by freddie » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:22 pm

Individual card counting isn't much of a problem for casinos. Teams do it is.

You can try and use rewards to make the bets EV+ but most casinos don't pay out enough in comps. You can make money with some of the video poker machines. However you have to play a lot as you are basically a losing player until you get the Royal Flush (something like 40k games).

jackholloway wrote:
Raymond wrote:My roommate back in the day managed to lose $3600 over four hours using your system in Las Vegas (cash advance from a credit card, no less).
This was on a second lieutenant's pay, which was not all that large back in the late 1980s.
It took him the better part of a year to pay it all back.
And this was a guy who was a physics major in college, he must have slept through his statistics classes :D

-----

As you stated, you have heard of the martingale betting system and its limitations:
1. Casino betting limits, and;
2. Requires that the gambler have infinite wealth, as the bets can grow exponentially.

You are aware of both, and yet you propose this system?

A nod to VictoriaF and other Taleb fans, the article states this is an example of a Taleb distribution ("picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.")

I say, "Go for it! What could go wrong?" :twisted:

The bigger danger is that even if you win, you will be tempted to repeat the process on a larger scale, which will very likely implode at some point.

Try card counting in blackjack, as mentioned above. However, you will eventually be found out, and muscular gentlemen in suits will escort you to the door and tell you to never come back :P


Many casinos _love_ card counters. Very few systems have a positive net yield if the players make occasional mistakes. Table limits limit their losses, and when a high roller is playing, other people pour money into the table, which means even if the high roller is doing the system perfectly and getting their few percent edge, five other people are losing money faster. Most people also vastly underestimate their ability to count cards in a casino atmosphere, and so hone their skills on a friendly table with all the time in the world and no stress.

Drelk3
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Drelk3 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:23 pm

There is an old adage that says a gambler's first bet is to win and all the rest are to catch up.

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Raymond
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Raymond » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:26 pm

jackholloway wrote:...Many casinos _love_ card counters. Very few systems have a positive net yield if the players make occasional mistakes. Table limits limit their losses, and when a high roller is playing, other people pour money into the table, which means even if the high roller is doing the system perfectly and getting their few percent edge, five other people are losing money faster. Most people also vastly underestimate their ability to count cards in a casino atmosphere, and so hone their skills on a friendly table with all the time in the world and no stress.


Ah, I had no idea - if I understand correctly, casinos love them because if the card counter makes even minor mistakes, he ends up losing at least as much (if not more) than if he were *not* counting?

And even if he does count correctly, other less skilled players are attracted to the table and lose their money?

Also, did you mean "...overestimate their ability to count cards..."?
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:36 pm

It is astonishing that no one has ever thought of this before. Ever!

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Kosmo
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Kosmo » Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:48 pm

For any bet you make, call it x on each Q, your expected return is: (14/38)×(-2x) + (12/38)×(x)×2 = -4/38x. So you're expected to lose about 10% on every spin. And you're odds will never change since all spins are independent of each other.

Play blackjack. The odds are less out of your favor.

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Igglesman
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Igglesman » Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:27 pm

Actually this system will work.... if for some reason you have discovered that one spin is NOT independent of the next spin. If they are not independent...than you indeed can find a method to beat the house.

Unfortunately...the house does not need to rig the wheel, spins are independent...they make their money on the 0 and 00.

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bru
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by bru » Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:29 pm

In one of the gambling books I have they have a variation on what you want to do. I believe they call it a "one off". Meaning do it once as you are leaving the casino and if you get lucky you may win enough for dinner (it was written when dinners out were less expensive).

You bet two of the three columns, $10 on each. You cover 24 of the numbers. Like has been mentioned, since one spin is completely independent of anything before or after they don't mention looking for any trends before betting. If you win, you collect $20 but do lose one of your $10 bets. Back when I used to frequent casinos, I tried it a few times. Won some, lost some.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by WL2034 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:46 pm

I couldn't bring myself to read the entire strategy, but I'm assuming this is some kind of Martingale method. All gamblers know the Martingale. You will mostly book small wins. You will intermittently book large losses (when you run out of money to continue your strategy). If you do it long enough, the outcome will be negative. You can't change the expected value of roulette.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Copper John » Mon Jun 23, 2014 5:55 pm

In the world of gambling NO ONE has EVER successfully become a "professional" roulette player or a "professional" craps player. I define this as making your living over a number of years by only playing these games. You CANNOT overcome the negative expected return in these games. In craps you can lower this considerably depending on the bets you choose but it is still negative. Why do you think casinos will do anything to bring in a big $$ player who has beat them for big $$? Unless these players are cheating, the casinos are not concerned that these players have figured out a system to beat them. They know the law of averages will inevitably kick in if they can get these players back into their casinos.

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Dutch
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Dutch » Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:04 pm

Winning roulette system: Own the casino

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by hicabob » Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:05 pm

Copper John wrote:In the world of gambling NO ONE has EVER successfully become a "professional" roulette player or a "professional" craps player. I define this as making your living over a number of years by only playing these games. You CANNOT overcome the negative expected return in these games. In craps you can lower this considerably depending on the bets you choose but it is still negative. Why do you think casinos will do anything to bring in a big $$ player who has beat them for big $$? Unless these players are cheating, the casinos are not concerned that these players have figured out a system to beat them. They know the law of averages will inevitably kick in if they can get these players back into their casinos.


I have read that in craps, there are a couple unusual situations in which the patron has positive odds over the house. I've never played craps so never learned the rules so the specific situations mentioned didn't stick.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by dickenjb » Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:20 pm

hicabob wrote:I have read that in craps, there are a couple unusual situations in which the patron has positive odds over the house. I've never played craps so never learned the rules so the specific situations mentioned didn't stick.


You read wrong. After you bet the pass line, you are allowed to "take the odds" which is at no advantage to the house. Some casinos allow you to bet 2x odds, some more. You should always take the maximum odds the house allows as the odds bets pay off at the true odds with no cut to the house. Still, they have a small percentage on the pass line bet.

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Taylor Larimore
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Beating the casino ?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:44 pm

InvestorNewb:
I have been thinking about going back, and have put more thought into my strategy.

The casino will be very happy to greet you. :twisted:

Best wishes
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Fallible » Mon Jun 23, 2014 6:54 pm

So you got lucky for awhile, then suddenly unlucky, and now you want to know whether we think you'll get lucky again, right?
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:08 pm

Igglesman wrote:Actually this system will work.... if for some reason you have discovered that one spin is NOT independent of the next spin. If they are not independent...than you indeed can find a method to beat the house.

Unfortunately...the house does not need to rig the wheel, spins are independent...they make their money on the 0 and 00.


Not exactly. Players are allowed to wager on 0 and 00 as well as the other numbers. The house edge comes from paying winning bets at 35:1 when the actual odds are 36:1 or 37:1. The effect of the presence of the 0 (or the 0 and 00) is to "dilute" the player's return from paytables based on only 36 numbers rather than 37 or 38.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:16 pm

dickenjb wrote:
hicabob wrote:I have read that in craps, there are a couple unusual situations in which the patron has positive odds over the house. I've never played craps so never learned the rules so the specific situations mentioned didn't stick.


You read wrong. After you bet the pass line, you are allowed to "take the odds" which is at no advantage to the house. Some casinos allow you to bet 2x odds, some more. You should always take the maximum odds the house allows as the odds bets pay off at the true odds with no cut to the house. Still, they have a small percentage on the pass line bet.


He probably read right. The one situation that I recall is if, for some reason, the casino/house decides to close the table after a given number (usually 3) of additional rolls of the dice rather than when a point is made or the shooter "seven's out". This used to be relatively common on casinos aboard boats required to sail as the ships were returning to port. Under those conditions, making "pass line" bets or "come bets" (whichever is appropriate) has a healthy advantage for the bettor.

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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by pjstack » Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:26 pm

Ah, memories of youth!

In 1959 I was stationed at Nellis AFB (just outside Vegas) and I "discovered" a winning roulette "system". I was delighted! Much easier than working!

I was a 2nd Lieutenant at the time. I played my "system". It worked! Until it didn't.

I lost $60. In case you think $60 is chump change, $60 dollars in 1959 was equivalent to $486 today!
(Hard to believe, isn't it?)

It was the best $60 I ever lost! I swore off "systems" forever.
pjstack

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Taylor Larimore
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Gambling cheats

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:30 pm

InvestorNewb:

I had a close acquaintance (now deceased) who told me that once or twice a year he would go into casinos with large amounts of money given to him by gamblers to bet on Roulette.

According to my acquaintance (I'd never call him a friend), the gamblers would send "counters" to secretly record every hit on a roulette wheel during hundreds or thousands of spins. It seems that the roulette wheels were not "exactly" balanced so that some numbers came up more than others.

My friend would bet all day long on these numbers. He claimed to have made over 1M for the gamblers and a bit for himself -- until the casinos caught on and began changing wheels and eventually banning him.

You are betting against the casino and also against successful cheats. Why try?

Best wishes.
Taylor
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by John3754 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:36 pm

Your "system" is based on the gamblers fallacy, it is the most common logical fallacy made by those who think they've figured out a way to beat the casino.

If I flip a coin 4 times and each time it lands on heads, is the 5th flip more likely to land on tails than heads because of the result of the first four flips?

hicabob
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Re: Gambling cheats

Post by hicabob » Mon Jun 23, 2014 7:49 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:InvestorNewb:

I had a close acquaintance (now deceased) who told me that once or twice a year he would go into casinos with large amounts of money given to him by gamblers to bet on Roulette.

According to my acquaintance (I'd never call him a friend), the gamblers would send "counters" to secretly record every hit on a roulette wheel during hundreds or thousands of spins. It seems that the roulette wheels were not "exactly" balanced so that some numbers came up more than others.

My friend would bet all day long on these numbers. He claimed to have made over 1M for the gamblers and a bit for himself -- until the casinos caught on and began changing wheels and eventually banning him.

You are betting against the casino and also against successful cheats. Why try?

Best wishes.
Taylor


A couple (or 3? :shock: ) decades ago I had an acquaintance who made and installed pdp-11 minicomputer systems to monitor slot machines and send an alert if things were not going as expected. I expect most roulette tables in casinos have a position/movement sensor and are monitored 24/7 nowadays.

bberris
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by bberris » Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:02 pm

I found a poker machine in LV that actually had a slight advantage to the player. But it only let you bet 25 c. I won $15 or so. I later read that your expectation if you could play incredibly fast and without mistakes you would make an average of 5 or 6 bucks an hour.

So my system for beating the casino is slightly less lucrative than tending bar at one.

wilked
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by wilked » Mon Jun 23, 2014 8:32 pm

This forum has helped me, so it is time to help back.

I'm going give you a secret roulette system that really works. It will cut the house advantage to literally nothing, if you believe in it enough to never get frustrated and switch tactics. What I'm going to say may seem strange, but here goes.

First, never bet simply red or black. Also don't bet odd or even. These are equally poor, consistently losing wagers.

Second, don't be suckered into betting zero or double zero, despite what some experts may suggest. This may seem like you're betting with the house, but for technical reasons you are actually betting against the house -- and you are taking the worst of it.

So, in order to negate the house advantage, you MUST stick to straight non-green number bets. All odd red numbers turn out to be bad choices, based on over two trillion computer trials. Don't bet them.

All even black numbers fare poorly, and cannot be bet, for much the same reason, which I won't explain here.

Let's get straight to the money-saving advice. Any bet you decide to make MUST cover only even-red or odd-black numbers. There are no exceptions.

Finally, you need to be very disciplined in excluding the number 30 and the group of consecutive numbers that begins with 11 and continues clockwise through and including 14.

This system may seem mystical, but I take gambling quite seriously, and this works for me.

tim1999
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by tim1999 » Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:11 pm

I play real-money roulette in a casino every other week or so. Anywhere from $10 per spin to $100+. I do it for fun, not to turn a profit. Long-term, you WILL NOT turn a profit in this game. I keep detailed records on my wins/losses. Even with fairly "conservative" play, often on a single-zero wheel, I am down about 10% on my buy-ins for this year. I tend to "bet against the trend" but in end I don't think it matters. Each spin is random. Bet what you feel like betting and enjoy. I've seen it all, red hits 15 times in a row, same number hits 4 times in a row, first 18 hits 20 times in a row, 0 or 00 hits 7 times in a row, casino floor man changes dealers every 5 spins, new dealer rolls the ball off the wheel onto the floor every other spin...you aren't going to outsmart random spins. I learned early on that the Martingale system will bankrupt the low-roller pretty quickly.

Your system isn't going to work. You may get lucky with it once, but it is not repeatable long term.

If you are serious about playing the game for fun - and I repeat, it's a game, for fun, not a way to turn a profit - seek out a version of the game with the best odds. Preferably: a single-zero wheel; any wheel in Atlantic City (you only lose half on even-money bets if the wheel hits 0 or 00), or best yet, a European wheel (single zero plus the A. C. rule, found at some places in Vegas like MGM Grand).

The key to avoiding failure in roulette- if there is such a thing - is really about bankroll management. Knowing when to leave/give up. I could type a page about this, but basically: if you find yourself up 25%, strongly consider going home. Even if you've only been there 20 minutes. If you ever find yourself up 50% or more, GET THE HECK OUT OF THERE, you will likely get greedy, make some big bets and lose it all. Try again with your original bankroll on another night.

ArthurO
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by ArthurO » Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:14 pm

only play CRAPS, its the game at which house has the smallest advantage against the player, however it is a sneaky game that you can loose/win the most amount of money at shortest time... so you need at least 10K to stay at the table for reasonable amount of time to wait for good streak to hit, I set 1K win and I walk away, sometimes it takes hours of swinging between positive and negative, and if it is not going your way just be happy to break close to even and leave,

craps odds are in house favour but the least of any casino game... next is black jack but only for good experienced player that I am not, I'd rather just shoot the dice...

Boglegrappler
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by Boglegrappler » Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:27 pm

Year ago on a broadcast, baseball great Tim McCarver offered a comment about gamblers with systems:

"You know what bookies say about gamblers with a system.
No.......what?
Send a cab to get him here"

User avatar
HomerJ
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by HomerJ » Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:18 am

ArthurO wrote:only play CRAPS, its the game at which house has the smallest advantage against the player, however it is a sneaky game that you can loose/win the most amount of money at shortest time... so you need at least 10K to stay at the table for reasonable amount of time to wait for good streak to hit, I set 1K win and I walk away, sometimes it takes hours of swinging between positive and negative, and if it is not going your way just be happy to break close to even and leave,

craps odds are in house favour but the least of any casino game... next is black jack but only for good experienced player that I am not, I'd rather just shoot the dice...


I love craps.

Playing just pass line and come bets, and covering the odds keeps the casino's edge very low (like below 1%)... You can place the 6 and 8 too for more action (I think casino has 1.5% edge on those bets). Everything else on the table is a sucker's bet (although I do play the hardways when I'm on a streak anyway, even though I know I shouldn't)

The problem with craps is that the minimum bet has gone up so much that I can't play anymore... Back in the 90s I used to play at $1 tables in Vegas (Horseshoe even had a 25 cent table - took my wife there one time, let her roll - she won us $50... Why oh why did I let her waste her beginner's luck roll on a 25 cent table!)

But now, $5 is the minimum table you can find, and many tables are $10... Who can afford that? I can't believe the casinos can find enough people to play craps with that kind of money...

You need at least 200x the minimum bet to play a single round of craps correctly.... And there's a decent chance you're going to lose it all. I'm not taking $1000 to a craps table... That's just one round of craps... If you're in Vegas for a weekend, you need at least a $5,000 bankroll to cover 5 gaming sessions at the craps tables.

Too rich for my blood anymore... Yet, the casinos are still packed.

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prudent
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by prudent » Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:25 am

wilked wrote:This forum has helped me, so it is time to help back.

I'm going give you a secret roulette system that really works. It will cut the house advantage to literally nothing, if you believe in it enough to never get frustrated and switch tactics. What I'm going to say may seem strange, but here goes.

First, never bet simply red or black. Also don't bet odd or even. These are equally poor, consistently losing wagers.

Second, don't be suckered into betting zero or double zero, despite what some experts may suggest. This may seem like you're betting with the house, but for technical reasons you are actually betting against the house -- and you are taking the worst of it.

So, in order to negate the house advantage, you MUST stick to straight non-green number bets. All odd red numbers turn out to be bad choices, based on over two trillion computer trials. Don't bet them.

All even black numbers fare poorly, and cannot be bet, for much the same reason, which I won't explain here.

Let's get straight to the money-saving advice. Any bet you decide to make MUST cover only even-red or odd-black numbers. There are no exceptions.

Finally, you need to be very disciplined in excluding the number 30 and the group of consecutive numbers that begins with 11 and continues clockwise through and including 14.

This system may seem mystical, but I take gambling quite seriously, and this works for me.


I don't gamble so I have no idea whether this is serious or satire, because I don't understand what is being said.

wilked
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by wilked » Tue Jun 24, 2014 8:29 am

prudent wrote:
wilked wrote:This forum has helped me, so it is time to help back.

I'm going give you a secret roulette system that really works. It will cut the house advantage to literally nothing, if you believe in it enough to never get frustrated and switch tactics. What I'm going to say may seem strange, but here goes.

First, never bet simply red or black. Also don't bet odd or even. These are equally poor, consistently losing wagers.

Second, don't be suckered into betting zero or double zero, despite what some experts may suggest. This may seem like you're betting with the house, but for technical reasons you are actually betting against the house -- and you are taking the worst of it.

So, in order to negate the house advantage, you MUST stick to straight non-green number bets. All odd red numbers turn out to be bad choices, based on over two trillion computer trials. Don't bet them.

All even black numbers fare poorly, and cannot be bet, for much the same reason, which I won't explain here.

Let's get straight to the money-saving advice. Any bet you decide to make MUST cover only even-red or odd-black numbers. There are no exceptions.

Finally, you need to be very disciplined in excluding the number 30 and the group of consecutive numbers that begins with 11 and continues clockwise through and including 14.

This system may seem mystical, but I take gambling quite seriously, and this works for me.


I don't gamble so I have no idea whether this is serious or satire, because I don't understand what is being said.

Believe me, it is real and it works. I have never lost at the casino with this strategy. It might sound a little complicated, but it is not at all with only a tiny bit of practice. These days there are plenty of roulette apps, I encourage everyone to practice there and see if I am lying.

protagonist
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Re: Help devising winning roulette system

Post by protagonist » Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:03 am

sdsailing wrote:Your system attempts to violate the basic rules of probability, which is not possible. As with coin tosses, each spin of the wheel is independent. The patterns that you observe have no influence whatsoever on the next spin.


That is it in a nutshell. You have described nothing in your strategy that would tip the odds in your favor. Same with wilked's "system".

I did hear a podcast about somebody who (allegedly) figured out a system to beat roulette, based on the observation that the wheels in the casinos were all slightly malaligned, and through careful observation that could be ultimately exploited. But if true, it took a lot of patience and, I imagine, a lot of skill. http://www.npr.org/2014/04/25/306869524 ... -the-wheel

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