worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Thx for posting. Was a good listen.
"By singing in harmony from the same page of the same investing hymnal, the Diehards drown out market noise." |
|
--Jason Zweig, quoted in The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Thanks. I like UCLA and this video.
Chaz |
|
“Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen |
|
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
-
- Founder
- Posts: 11589
- Joined: Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:06 pm
- Location: Chicago
- Contact:
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
From the forum policies
If the OP (or someone else) won't post at least a short comment on what this video covers, the thread will be removed.We also request that you be considerate of our readers and:
...
- refrain from posting naked links - all links should include an explanation or excerpt unless its meaning is clear from the context
...
Moderators may edit titles, reformat or even delete posts that do not follow these guidelines.
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
It was a talk about economic systemic spirals that could help in market timing.
Chaz |
|
“Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen |
|
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
-
- Posts: 568
- Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2011 12:29 pm
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Dr. Michael J. Burry does not seem to be a Boglehead, and he is not optimistic about our future. Here is a sample:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry
According to wikipedia he was a pretty good Hedge fund and he got out on top:Dr. Michael J. Burry @ approx 16:30 wrote:As it turns out, information is not perfect. Volility does not define risk. Markets are not efficient. The individual is adaptable. But the dark ages of finance allow no such light. Mainstream economists and finance practioners... please check your premises, you have contradictions before you. Truthfully, I do not expect much to change.
He seems to have beat the market every year that he was operating, and by a lot, his biggest bet was a correct one on the crash of 2008 in real estate and sub-prime etc.Though he suffered an investor revolt before his predictions came true, he earned a personal profit of $100 million and a profit for his remaining investors of more than $700 million.[5] Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34 percent (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000 inception and June 2008. The S&P 500 returned just over two percent over the same period.[5]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry
-
- Posts: 15368
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:53 am
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
I love Dr. Burry. As a fellow ASPY, I very much empathized with how he was characterized in Michael Lewis' "The Big Short".
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Although I am not as dour as he is about debt levels and such for the US Government, I am equally as outraged by the clubby nature of academia and I suppose wall street/Government. What he says happened (Government reaction to his opinions) starting around 14:00 is absolutely outrageous. Makes my blood boil.
A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Any way to make videos run faster? He's talking soooo sloooow...
Seeking Iso-Elasticity. |
Tax Loss Harvesting is an Asset Class. |
A well-planned presentation creates a sense of urgency. If the prospect fails to act now, he will risk a loss of some sort.
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Relax, go with the flow.Bongleur wrote:Any way to make videos run faster? He's talking soooo sloooow...
Chaz |
|
“Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen |
|
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
I hope the OP comes back in time to explain his posting and save the thread because I think Burry's message is an important one, especially for young Bogleheads. Overall I thought he was almost imploring the grads to "ask questions." He spoke of the questions he asked about the economy as a fund manager in 2003, questions about subprime mortgages, housing prices, the insurance and ratings agencies. They were the right questions and we know what happened to them, how they (and the similar questions of others) were ignored and what happened next, what happens when you don't ask questions.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Very good insight at 20.00 "use short term risk exchange for a long term benefit".. "then hit that button again and again and again"...
Sort of like buying great stocks when they are on sale and blood in running in the street.. Warren Buffett.
Bill
Sort of like buying great stocks when they are on sale and blood in running in the street.. Warren Buffett.
Bill
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Equally insightful is his comment about "never taking long term risk in exchange for short term reward" like is done by drunk drivers. Or when people use their home refinance proceeds to buy a boat or a car or a vacation ...........
Bill
Bill
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Riskonoff:
Quite interesting comments, especially the one about using short term risk exchange to gain a long term benefit. Many of the folks I know have fallen victim to the one he warns about earlier- exchanging long term risk for short term reward. I often think about a neighbor who refinanced his house to buy a huge boat, which now sits mostly in the harbor slip ( at $28,000 annual mooring and maintenance fees) because he can no longer afford the gasoline expenses. So, he invites folks to join him Saturday afternoon for drinks on the boat..tied to the dock. And this isn't uncommon- he is not the only boat owner at that harbor who has a "dock party" on their boat. Really odd situation to me.
Shawcroft
Quite interesting comments, especially the one about using short term risk exchange to gain a long term benefit. Many of the folks I know have fallen victim to the one he warns about earlier- exchanging long term risk for short term reward. I often think about a neighbor who refinanced his house to buy a huge boat, which now sits mostly in the harbor slip ( at $28,000 annual mooring and maintenance fees) because he can no longer afford the gasoline expenses. So, he invites folks to join him Saturday afternoon for drinks on the boat..tied to the dock. And this isn't uncommon- he is not the only boat owner at that harbor who has a "dock party" on their boat. Really odd situation to me.
Shawcroft
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
Greg, retired 8/10.
-
- Posts: 48944
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
My guess is the sheer size of the university.GregLee wrote:It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
We graduated in some subsections because the graduation hall (2000 seats) was not large enough for the numbers graduating in any year (over 10,000).
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
This is now common in large universities in the U.S. Each department (or "school" or "college") has it's own commencement speaker and diploma handing out ceremony. This is usually followed by a university wide ceremony for all graduates - with yet another commencement speaker.GregLee wrote:It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
-
- Posts: 182
- Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:13 am
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Terrific video, thanks very much for posting. The gov't reaction to his NYT op ed was scary on many levels.
- nvboglehead
- Posts: 489
- Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:44 am
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Having graduation ceremonies by department was also done at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970s. For my class, the Department of Economics did not have an interesting keynote speaker like Dr. Burry.dkturner wrote:This is now common in large universities in the U.S. Each department (or "school" or "college") has it's own commencement speaker and diploma handing out ceremony. This is usually followed by a university wide ceremony for all graduates - with yet another commencement speaker.GregLee wrote:It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
I only wish that Jack Bogle had been available. It would have been great to have heard about his new retail stock index fund back then!
Dale
Learn from the Bogleheads! Do you want to work for your money or have your money work for you?
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
I was familiar with Dr Burry from "The Big Short". After watching this video I looked at his other commencement speeches and TV interviews on You Tube. Some random observations and comments:
He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.
I am a little puzzled by his choice of California almond farms with water rights as a good alternative investment. I understand his thesis as it pertains to coming water shortages, and depreciation of the dollar, but why in the world would you want to hold a hard asset with a California address. He is predicting a Greek like scenario for the US, with California being the canary in the coal mine. Doesn't he think California will raise the property taxes on his almond farms when the crisis hits as hard as he is predicting? It would seem better to buy non irrigated Midwest farm land in a state with a balanced budget and reasonably funded public pensions. Iowa, South Dakota, and Wisconsin come to mind.
The gold investments he speaks of, I am sure were all made at pre run up prices.
I was intrigued by his recommendation for the rest of us not in the top .001%, to open a retail Canadian bank account. I presume he was talking about stashing emergency funds and savings accounts there. I wonder how big of a hassle this is.
He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.
I am a little puzzled by his choice of California almond farms with water rights as a good alternative investment. I understand his thesis as it pertains to coming water shortages, and depreciation of the dollar, but why in the world would you want to hold a hard asset with a California address. He is predicting a Greek like scenario for the US, with California being the canary in the coal mine. Doesn't he think California will raise the property taxes on his almond farms when the crisis hits as hard as he is predicting? It would seem better to buy non irrigated Midwest farm land in a state with a balanced budget and reasonably funded public pensions. Iowa, South Dakota, and Wisconsin come to mind.
The gold investments he speaks of, I am sure were all made at pre run up prices.
I was intrigued by his recommendation for the rest of us not in the top .001%, to open a retail Canadian bank account. I presume he was talking about stashing emergency funds and savings accounts there. I wonder how big of a hassle this is.
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Graduation ceremonies by department was not done at UCLA in 1952.
Chaz |
|
“Money is better than poverty, if only for financial reasons." Woody Allen |
|
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page
-
- Posts: 15368
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:53 am
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
As someone diagnosed with Aspergers myself, I think this is a pretty good breakdown of our learning behavior. I have a near photographic memory, but lectures tend to be almost worthless for me. Most of my "learning" is accomplished at home, with my face in a book rather than listening to a professor. I thought long and hard about the decision of whether to pursue a PhD or go to medical school 3yrs ago. Ultimately I decided to pursue the PhD, although my challenges with auditory learning were not really a consideration.64415 wrote: He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Certainly worth watching in my opinion.
Last edited by norookie on Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
" Wealth usually leads to excess " Cicero 55 b.c
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
I think one of Burry's main points was that medicine was not what he was truly interested in, it was a wrong turn and he didn't find himself apparently until he got into money management. That is part of what he wanted the graduates to know: how to take the time needed and ask the right questions in order to find themselves and what they were meant to do in life.stoptothink wrote:As someone diagnosed with Aspergers myself, I think this is a pretty good breakdown of our learning behavior. I have a near photographic memory, but lectures tend to be almost worthless for me. Most of my "learning" is accomplished at home, with my face in a book rather than listening to a professor. I thought long and hard about the decision of whether to pursue a PhD or go to medical school 3yrs ago. Ultimately I decided to pursue the PhD, although my challenges with auditory learning were not really a consideration.64415 wrote: He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.
It's interesting that Burry's extraordinary abilities, due largely or partly to Asperger's, meant he could do well in more than one profession. But they couldn't tell him which profession. He still had to learn that pretty much like the rest of us, by trial and error.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
Berkeley Economics has some good Behavioral Economists. They could invite Daniel Kahneman to make a commencement address.nvboglehead wrote:Having graduation ceremonies by department was also done at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970s. For my class, the Department of Economics did not have an interesting keynote speaker like Dr. Burry.
I only wish that Jack Bogle had been available. It would have been great to have heard about his new retail stock index fund back then!
Dale
Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake |
Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. |
Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
A nice idea. Also, it might've been interesting if UCLA had Kahneman speak after Burry, to apply the Systems to Burry's thought processes that led to his '03 discovery that housing would crash a few years later.As I remember it from "The Big Short," Burry relentlessly poured over statistics, figures, and facts (System 2), but it may have been intuition (System 1) that led him to do so.VictoriaF wrote:Berkeley Economics has some good Behavioral Economists. They could invite Daniel Kahneman to make a commencement address.nvboglehead wrote:Having graduation ceremonies by department was also done at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970s. For my class, the Department of Economics did not have an interesting keynote speaker like Dr. Burry.
I only wish that Jack Bogle had been available. It would have been great to have heard about his new retail stock index fund back then!
Dale
Victoria
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla
I posted this because i think it is good to get different perspective on things. i think many bogleheads are too extreme in their views and unable or unwilling to listen to someone who may see the world diffently than they do.Alex Frakt wrote:From the forum policiesIf the OP (or someone else) won't post at least a short comment on what this video covers, the thread will be removed.We also request that you be considerate of our readers and:
...
- refrain from posting naked links - all links should include an explanation or excerpt unless its meaning is clear from the context
...
Moderators may edit titles, reformat or even delete posts that do not follow these guidelines.
I have many boglehead traits but i have also traveled 'the road less traveled' and it is nice to be able to go down both roads.