worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

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riskonoff
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worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

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woof755
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by woof755 »

Thx for posting. Was a good listen.
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chaz
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by chaz »

Thanks. I like UCLA and this video.
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by Alex Frakt »

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chaz
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by chaz »

It was a talk about economic systemic spirals that could help in market timing.
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ProfessorX
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by ProfessorX »

Dr. Michael J. Burry does not seem to be a Boglehead, and he is not optimistic about our future. Here is a sample:
Dr. Michael J. Burry @ approx 16:30 wrote:As it turns out, information is not perfect. Volility does not define risk. Markets are not efficient. The individual is adaptable. But the dark ages of finance allow no such light. Mainstream economists and finance practioners... please check your premises, you have contradictions before you. Truthfully, I do not expect much to change.
According to wikipedia he was a pretty good Hedge fund and he got out on top:
Though he suffered an investor revolt before his predictions came true, he earned a personal profit of $100 million and a profit for his remaining investors of more than $700 million.[5] Scion Capital ultimately recorded returns of 489.34 percent (net of fees and expenses) between its November 1, 2000 inception and June 2008. The S&P 500 returned just over two percent over the same period.[5]
He seems to have beat the market every year that he was operating, and by a lot, his biggest bet was a correct one on the crash of 2008 in real estate and sub-prime etc.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry
stoptothink
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by stoptothink »

I love Dr. Burry. As a fellow ASPY, I very much empathized with how he was characterized in Michael Lewis' "The Big Short".
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matjen
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by matjen »

Although I am not as dour as he is about debt levels and such for the US Government, I am equally as outraged by the clubby nature of academia and I suppose wall street/Government. What he says happened (Government reaction to his opinions) starting around 14:00 is absolutely outrageous. Makes my blood boil. :annoyed
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by Bongleur »

Any way to make videos run faster? He's talking soooo sloooow...
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chaz
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by chaz »

Bongleur wrote:Any way to make videos run faster? He's talking soooo sloooow...
Relax, go with the flow.
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Fallible
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by Fallible »

I hope the OP comes back in time to explain his posting and save the thread because I think Burry's message is an important one, especially for young Bogleheads. Overall I thought he was almost imploring the grads to "ask questions." He spoke of the questions he asked about the economy as a fund manager in 2003, questions about subprime mortgages, housing prices, the insurance and ratings agencies. They were the right questions and we know what happened to them, how they (and the similar questions of others) were ignored and what happened next, what happens when you don't ask questions.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
btenny
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by btenny »

Very good insight at 20.00 "use short term risk exchange for a long term benefit".. "then hit that button again and again and again"...

Sort of like buying great stocks when they are on sale and blood in running in the street.. Warren Buffett.

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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by btenny »

Equally insightful is his comment about "never taking long term risk in exchange for short term reward" like is done by drunk drivers. Or when people use their home refinance proceeds to buy a boat or a car or a vacation ...........

Bill
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by shawcroft »

Riskonoff:
Quite interesting comments, especially the one about using short term risk exchange to gain a long term benefit. Many of the folks I know have fallen victim to the one he warns about earlier- exchanging long term risk for short term reward. I often think about a neighbor who refinanced his house to buy a huge boat, which now sits mostly in the harbor slip ( at $28,000 annual mooring and maintenance fees) because he can no longer afford the gasoline expenses. So, he invites folks to join him Saturday afternoon for drinks on the boat..tied to the dock. And this isn't uncommon- he is not the only boat owner at that harbor who has a "dock party" on their boat. Really odd situation to me.
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GregLee
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by GregLee »

It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
Greg, retired 8/10.
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by Valuethinker »

GregLee wrote:It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
My guess is the sheer size of the university.

We graduated in some subsections because the graduation hall (2000 seats) was not large enough for the numbers graduating in any year (over 10,000).
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by dkturner »

GregLee wrote:It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
This is now common in large universities in the U.S. Each department (or "school" or "college") has it's own commencement speaker and diploma handing out ceremony. This is usually followed by a university wide ceremony for all graduates - with yet another commencement speaker.
More Please
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by More Please »

Terrific video, thanks very much for posting. The gov't reaction to his NYT op ed was scary on many levels.
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nvboglehead
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by nvboglehead »

dkturner wrote:
GregLee wrote:It seems to me unusual for an individual department to have its own commencement ceremony. Is the Department of Economics declaring war on the rest of UCLA?
This is now common in large universities in the U.S. Each department (or "school" or "college") has it's own commencement speaker and diploma handing out ceremony. This is usually followed by a university wide ceremony for all graduates - with yet another commencement speaker.
Having graduation ceremonies by department was also done at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970s. For my class, the Department of Economics did not have an interesting keynote speaker like Dr. Burry.

I only wish that Jack Bogle had been available. It would have been great to have heard about his new retail stock index fund back then!

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64415
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by 64415 »

I was familiar with Dr Burry from "The Big Short". After watching this video I looked at his other commencement speeches and TV interviews on You Tube. Some random observations and comments:

He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.

I am a little puzzled by his choice of California almond farms with water rights as a good alternative investment. I understand his thesis as it pertains to coming water shortages, and depreciation of the dollar, but why in the world would you want to hold a hard asset with a California address. He is predicting a Greek like scenario for the US, with California being the canary in the coal mine. Doesn't he think California will raise the property taxes on his almond farms when the crisis hits as hard as he is predicting? It would seem better to buy non irrigated Midwest farm land in a state with a balanced budget and reasonably funded public pensions. Iowa, South Dakota, and Wisconsin come to mind.

The gold investments he speaks of, I am sure were all made at pre run up prices.

I was intrigued by his recommendation for the rest of us not in the top .001%, to open a retail Canadian bank account. I presume he was talking about stashing emergency funds and savings accounts there. I wonder how big of a hassle this is.
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by chaz »

Graduation ceremonies by department was not done at UCLA in 1952.
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stoptothink
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by stoptothink »

64415 wrote: He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.
As someone diagnosed with Aspergers myself, I think this is a pretty good breakdown of our learning behavior. I have a near photographic memory, but lectures tend to be almost worthless for me. Most of my "learning" is accomplished at home, with my face in a book rather than listening to a professor. I thought long and hard about the decision of whether to pursue a PhD or go to medical school 3yrs ago. Ultimately I decided to pursue the PhD, although my challenges with auditory learning were not really a consideration.
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norookie
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by norookie »

:happy Certainly worth watching in my opinion.
Last edited by norookie on Thu Jul 19, 2012 10:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by Fallible »

stoptothink wrote:
64415 wrote: He comments that he was in the 50th percentile of his med school class at Vanderbilt. In spite of his obvious genius, this mediocre performance in medical school doesn't surprise me given his Aspergers diagnosis. Most of the people with Aspergers I have known didn't seem to process auditory data very well, they were uniformly outstanding readers with photographic recall of any thing they had ever read. Processing auditory data is critical in medical school. The low social IQ that most people with Aspergers have would have also hurt him during his third year clerkships. I could see him unwittingly show up an attending during rounds. Clearly he aced the USMLE tests, as you would expect a reader with a photographic memory to do, or he wouldn't have obtained a spot at Stanford for neurology.
As someone diagnosed with Aspergers myself, I think this is a pretty good breakdown of our learning behavior. I have a near photographic memory, but lectures tend to be almost worthless for me. Most of my "learning" is accomplished at home, with my face in a book rather than listening to a professor. I thought long and hard about the decision of whether to pursue a PhD or go to medical school 3yrs ago. Ultimately I decided to pursue the PhD, although my challenges with auditory learning were not really a consideration.
I think one of Burry's main points was that medicine was not what he was truly interested in, it was a wrong turn and he didn't find himself apparently until he got into money management. That is part of what he wanted the graduates to know: how to take the time needed and ask the right questions in order to find themselves and what they were meant to do in life.

It's interesting that Burry's extraordinary abilities, due largely or partly to Asperger's, meant he could do well in more than one profession. But they couldn't tell him which profession. He still had to learn that pretty much like the rest of us, by trial and error.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by VictoriaF »

nvboglehead wrote:Having graduation ceremonies by department was also done at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970s. For my class, the Department of Economics did not have an interesting keynote speaker like Dr. Burry.

I only wish that Jack Bogle had been available. It would have been great to have heard about his new retail stock index fund back then!

Dale
Berkeley Economics has some good Behavioral Economists. They could invite Daniel Kahneman to make a commencement address.

Victoria
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Fallible
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by Fallible »

VictoriaF wrote:
nvboglehead wrote:Having graduation ceremonies by department was also done at U.C. Berkeley in the 1970s. For my class, the Department of Economics did not have an interesting keynote speaker like Dr. Burry.

I only wish that Jack Bogle had been available. It would have been great to have heard about his new retail stock index fund back then!

Dale
Berkeley Economics has some good Behavioral Economists. They could invite Daniel Kahneman to make a commencement address.

Victoria
A nice idea.:) Also, it might've been interesting if UCLA had Kahneman speak after Burry, to apply the Systems to Burry's thought processes that led to his '03 discovery that housing would crash a few years later.As I remember it from "The Big Short," Burry relentlessly poured over statistics, figures, and facts (System 2), but it may have been intuition (System 1) that led him to do so.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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riskonoff
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Re: worth watchin...dr. burry ucla

Post by riskonoff »

Alex Frakt wrote:From the forum policies
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I posted this because i think it is good to get different perspective on things. i think many bogleheads are too extreme in their views and unable or unwilling to listen to someone who may see the world diffently than they do.

I have many boglehead traits but i have also traveled 'the road less traveled' and it is nice to be able to go down both roads.
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