Slight modification required:greg24 wrote:Stocks go up. Stocks go down.
Not to hijack the thread, but where did the belief in 3D come from? Stereoscopic photography was invented in 1838, cheap polarizers circa 1940, you'd think people would have a pretty good idea what it can and cannot do. 3D movies in 1950s didn't fail because they were too expensive, or because the technology was all that much worse than today's, or because you had to go to the theatre.fishnskiguy wrote:Turns out that the public likes 3D TVs about as much as they liked 3D movies back in 1955. Lots of folks thought we all would just HAVE to get a 3D TV. Nope.
My favorite project of the Coors ceramics division was always the fuel elements for the Tory series nuclear ramjets for Project Pluto. They didn't publicize those much at the time. though.thirdman wrote:I have been interested in ceramics and materials for years. I bought Nordstrom shirts with Z-buttons made by Coors-Tek. I thing cars in the future will have bodies made from a stamped, cured, bolted and glued carbon fiber/some material frame. But who will commercialize the technology and benefit, I can not guess.
I had the same thoughts when 3D TVs started to get pushed --- "Why? Are they nuts? 3D movies were a novelty/joke 50 years ago."nisiprius wrote:... where did the belief in 3D come from?
After 20 years as an exec in composites including automotive, I can't imagine a set of circumstances that would lead to any meaningful volume. Niche market yes (high performance, conspicuous consumption and/or eco-chic), mainstream under what circumstances?thirdman wrote:I thing cars in the future will have bodies made from a stamped, cured, bolted and glued carbon fiber/some material frame. But who will commercialize the technology and benefit, I can not guess.
Obviously I don't know what I am talking about. I guessed that technology would progress to something like chopped carbon fiber that could be put in molds, rather than hand laid, mass produced and fabricated. Even long carbon fibers could be laid by machine? Possibly ceramics or glass could be adapted to vehicle frames? I was basing my guess on the huge amount of research going on in materials, at both universities and companies. The stamped and welded steel skeleton of light vehicles is quite heavy. I imagined a vehicle with a rigid polymer fiber frame with composite body panels. The components would be modular, such as electric motor, electronics, battery pack, and glass dashboard. The car could be updated through software and component hardware.Midpack wrote:After 20 years as an exec in composites including automotive, I can't imagine a set of circumstances that would lead to any meaningful volume. Niche market yes (high performance, conspicuous consumption and/or eco-chic), mainstream under what circumstances?thirdman wrote:I thing cars in the future will have bodies made from a stamped, cured, bolted and glued carbon fiber/some material frame. But who will commercialize the technology and benefit, I can not guess.
thirdman wrote:I guessed that technology would progress to something like chopped carbon fiber that could be put in molds, rather than hand laid, mass produced and fabricated. Even long carbon fibers could be laid by machine? Both are already being done.
Possibly ceramics or glass could be adapted to vehicle frames? I was basing my guess on the huge amount of research going on in materials, at both universities and companies. I was aware of some but not all.
The stamped and welded steel skeleton of light vehicles is quite heavy. Dictated largely by physics for safety reasons. Safety has only become more of a selling point over time, not less. One of the reasons many Americans still covet large cars, and avoid small cars - a large lightweight car might be a real uphill battle for dealers.
I imagined a vehicle with a rigid polymer fiber frame with composite body panels. There are already fiberglass composite panels, the Corvette the most obvious (relatively expensive) example. Carbon fiber is much more expensive than glass fiber, and epoxy (best for carbon fiber) is much more expensive than polyester and vinyl ester resins - so carbon fiber composites are costly. And Fiberglass has never had a big share of body panels despite 50 years trying to penetrate the market. Fiberglass only make economic sense for low volume cars/parts, stamped steel still rules where volume is moderate or high - most of the market. If composites ever do break through that market in a big way, fiberglass will always be much cheaper than carbon fiber IMHO.
The components would be modular, such as electric motor, electronics, battery pack, and glass dashboard. The car could be updated through software and component hardware.
When I was in school silicon planar technology was just beginning. Intel did not exist. Was Fairchild semiconductor the investment vehicle in 1968 or Intel? I cannot choose winners.
Gee what a surprise... If the marketing guru's asked a real person that would have been obviousfishnskiguy wrote:Turns out that the public likes 3D TVs about as much as they liked 3D movies back in 1955. Lots of folks thought we all would just HAVE to get a 3D TV. Nope.
