bogle on tactical allocation

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tiresias
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bogle on tactical allocation

Post by tiresias » Wed Jan 18, 2012 10:46 am

[this topic was originally posted in "help with personal investments." but after not getting any replies, i deleted it and re-posted here]

These questions refer to page 246 of Bogle on Mutual Funds, New Perspectives for Intelligent Investors 1994 edition softcover.

1) Where can I find the actual current dividend yield of sp500?

2) How do i determine the price paid for $1 of dividends over the last 25 years? Where is this information available? And what price would I use? the index price for ^gspc as quoted on yahoo/google (is this number a price?), or the quoted price of spy etf, or the price of a share of vfiax?

3) Also, what price would I use to apply the same calculation for the bond market? Would it be the price of a share of bnd etf? or a share of vbmfx/vbtlx.

4) Finally, if this information is available somewhere, shouldn't it be gathered and maintained on the boglehead wiki?
~~~ when dumb money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb ~~~

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Majormajor78
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by Majormajor78 » Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:20 pm

tiresias wrote: 1) Where can I find the actual current dividend yield of sp500?
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/

Not sure of a convenient way of getting the data for your other questions beside mining the data yourself. I don't believe i've ever really seen anybody look at stock and bond investing strictly from a dividend/income perspective. The only other place I've seen that is with CD's. Much more realistic to look at it from a total return perspective because dividend and coupon payments drift over time. What is your goal for this information? Are you trying to figure out a perpetual withdrawl rate guaranted to never touch principle?
"Oh, M. le Comte, it is only a loss of money which I have sustained... nothing worth mentioning, I assure you."

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tiresias
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by tiresias » Wed Jan 18, 2012 12:42 pm

Majormajor78 wrote:
tiresias wrote: 1) Where can I find the actual current dividend yield of sp500?
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/

Not sure of a convenient way of getting the data for your other questions beside mining the data yourself. I don't believe i've ever really seen anybody look at stock and bond investing strictly from a dividend/income perspective. The only other place I've seen that is with CD's. Much more realistic to look at it from a total return perspective because dividend and coupon payments drift over time. What is your goal for this information? Are you trying to figure out a perpetual withdrawl rate guaranted to never touch principle?
my goal is to apply the tactical allocation described in bogle's book cited in the original post.
~~~ when dumb money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb ~~~

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mas
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by mas » Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:59 pm

Go here and get Shiller's Excel spreadsheet:
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

He has in there the S&P500 index value (^GSPC) and dividend value (of the index, not any particular fund representing it) on a monthly basis.
There is also a column in there for long term treasury bond yield, although you could get that directly (or choose another data series reported by the Fed):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GS10

dodonnell
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by dodonnell » Wed Jan 18, 2012 10:07 pm


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tiresias
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by tiresias » Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:43 am

thank you all
~~~ when dumb money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb ~~~

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tiresias
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by tiresias » Thu Jan 19, 2012 12:13 pm

mas wrote:Go here and get Shiller's Excel spreadsheet:
There is also a column in there for long term treasury bond yield, although you could get that directly (or choose another data series reported by the Fed):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GS10
i'd be more interested in barclays capital us aggregate bond yield (which vanguard's total bond is based on). is there a significant difference between barclays yield and treasury bond yield?
~~~ when dumb money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb ~~~

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mas
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by mas » Thu Jan 19, 2012 1:46 pm

tiresias wrote:i'd be more interested in barclays capital us aggregate bond yield (which vanguard's total bond is based on). is there a significant difference between barclays yield and treasury bond yield?
You can get a snapshot here, but I didn't find history:
https://ecommerce.barcap.com/indices/index.dxml

As of Jan 18,2012:
U.S. Aggregate 2.18%
U.S. Treasury: 7-10 Year 1.63%
U.S. Treasury: 10-20 Year 2.34%




The Fed doesn't report that index, but it does have these (relatively short histories, though):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/categories/32347

Maybe someone else has a source for your preferred index...

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tiresias
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Re: bogle on tactical allocation

Post by tiresias » Thu Jan 19, 2012 3:14 pm

mas wrote:You can get a snapshot here, but I didn't find history:
https://ecommerce.barcap.com/indices/index.dxml

As of Jan 18,2012:
U.S. Aggregate 2.18%
U.S. Treasury: 7-10 Year 1.63%
U.S. Treasury: 10-20 Year 2.34%
apparently, you need a password to access the info in this site. how do you get one?
~~~ when dumb money acknowledges its limitations, it ceases to be dumb ~~~

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