Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

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travellight
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by travellight »

bobblehead- I don't think that is so unusual. What stands out to me is how little mortgage debt bogleheads have; even the very high NW people have low mortgage debt.
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stan1
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by stan1 »

Kevin M wrote: My sense is that net worth should be considered separately from income streams. They both are important, but they are different beasts. I don't consider the present value of future income from my investments and savings as part of my net worth. I never considered the present value of future earned income part of my net worth.
I think many of us agree, but there are two camps. I think some people view pensions and SS as an investment they have bought into with a guaranteed future income stream (much like an annuity). Other people view pensions and SS as current year expenses/taxes that indirectly relate to future income many years later. I don't think its possible to argue either approach is entirely right or wrong.

Bobblehead, would you consider inserting a column between "net worth" and "assets" for net worth that excludes future income (SS and pension)? This would also help normalize the data since many people have entered $0 for SS.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by winterescape »

Fascinating! I just spent some time looking at the results. Thanks for all the work to pull this together. It looks like line 174 and 176 are duplicates and I question if the “value of residence” is not missing 2 or 3 zeros.

My surprise in looking at the data is how much variance there is in asset allocation by age. The progression starts out as I would expect for folks in 20’s and 30’s but varies widely for folks in 40’s 50’s and beyond. I wonder if this is accurate or if the data entry form is misread. What about a redundant entry asking % in stocks?
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

stan1 wrote:
Kevin M wrote: My sense is that net worth should be considered separately from income streams. They both are important, but they are different beasts. I don't consider the present value of future income from my investments and savings as part of my net worth. I never considered the present value of future earned income part of my net worth.
I think many of us agree, but there are two camps. I think some people view pensions and SS as an investment they have bought into with a guaranteed future income stream (much like an annuity). Other people view pensions and SS as current year expenses/taxes that indirectly relate to future income many years later. I don't think its possible to argue either approach is entirely right or wrong.

Bobblehead, would you consider inserting a column between "net worth" and "assets" for net worth that excludes future income (SS and pension)? This would also help normalize the data since many people have entered $0 for SS.
Good idea. I added a column for Net Worth no SS no pension. I also added a column for the median in the summary tab.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

winterescape wrote:Fascinating! I just spent some time looking at the results. Thanks for all the work to pull this together. It looks like line 174 and 176 are duplicates and I question if the “value of residence” is not missing 2 or 3 zeros.

My surprise in looking at the data is how much variance there is in asset allocation by age. The progression starts out as I would expect for folks in 20’s and 30’s but varies widely for folks in 40’s 50’s and beyond. I wonder if this is accurate or if the data entry form is misread. What about a redundant entry asking % in stocks?
Thanks, I deleted row 174, and changed the value of residence from 300 to 300,000. I also made a note of this change in the notes column.
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Dale_G
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by Dale_G »

Bump - and oops - at 7:12 pm EST Jan 15 the results link returns an error for me.

Interesting results - I concur with those who do not believe SS or pensions should be capitalized (unless the pension is available immediately as a lump sum)/

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rsc601
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by rsc601 »

google docs is down?
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investor.saver1
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by investor.saver1 »

I'm in the camp that thinks both pension and SS should be included in net worth. I'm just retired. From my perspective, I contributed to both SS and my company pension for my entire working career. While these may not be true annuities, they act exactly as annuities. I can certainly understand that a younger person may feel otherwise since they do not have the years invested.

First, let me say that I am no financial wizard and I respect the opinions of those that have been running the numbers here. I'm just wondering if there should be some adjustment made for the NPVs of SS and company pensions based on number of years in the workforce. For example, I just retired and paid into SS my entire working career. A 26 year old may have paid in just a couple years. It seems reasonable to me that the contribution to NW of my SS would be many times higher than the contribution to NW of the 26 year old. The same holds true for a company pension. While it would not be perfect by any means, perhaps the following adjustment could be made: NVP X (("current age" - 24)/40) where 24 is the standard age whereby an individual enters the workforce and 40 is the standard number of working years. Obviously for an individual > 64 years of age, there would be no adjustment necessary.

Don't know if the above makes sense or not, but thought I'd just throw it out for discussion.
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market timer
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by market timer »

investor.saver1 wrote:A 26 year old may have paid in just a couple years. It seems reasonable to me that the contribution to NW of my SS would be many times higher than the contribution to NW of the 26 year old. The same holds true for a company pension. While it would not be perfect by any means, perhaps the following adjustment could be made: NVP X (("current age" - 24)/40) where 24 is the standard age whereby an individual enters the workforce and 40 is the standard number of working years. Obviously for an individual > 64 years of age, there would be no adjustment necessary.

Don't know if the above makes sense or not, but thought I'd just throw it out for discussion.
This is a fair point. For convenience, I'd rather leave it to the users to enter the monthly SS to which they're entitled based on prior contributions. As for the linear approximation, the benefits ramp up pretty quickly, to the point that someone can achieve something like 75% of the max SS benefits just from the first 10 years of contributions.
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ejvyas
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by ejvyas »

Oops, something went wrong.
Something bad happened. Don't worry, though. The Spreadsheets Team has been notified and we'll get right on it.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

Something happened to our spreadsheet and the link is not working. I notified Google via the request form, and received an email back asking to add one of the Google Docs team members to the spreadsheet. Just added him now, and I will keep everyone posted.

Sorry for the inconvenience!
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investor.saver1
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by investor.saver1 »

market timer wrote:
investor.saver1 wrote:A 26 year old may have paid in just a couple years. It seems reasonable to me that the contribution to NW of my SS would be many times higher than the contribution to NW of the 26 year old. The same holds true for a company pension. While it would not be perfect by any means, perhaps the following adjustment could be made: NVP X (("current age" - 24)/40) where 24 is the standard age whereby an individual enters the workforce and 40 is the standard number of working years. Obviously for an individual > 64 years of age, there would be no adjustment necessary.

Don't know if the above makes sense or not, but thought I'd just throw it out for discussion.
This is a fair point. For convenience, I'd rather leave it to the users to enter the monthly SS to which they're entitled based on prior contributions. As for the linear approximation, the benefits ramp up pretty quickly, to the point that someone can achieve something like 75% of the max SS benefits just from the first 10 years of contributions.
Fair enough market timer. Thanks for the feedback. I didn't realize that SS would ramp up that quickly.
Investor.Saver1 | | Experience is something you don't get until just after you need it.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

Here is a link to the latest data that was saved outside of Google Docs
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... TBNc2drY2c
smpatel
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by smpatel »

bobblehead,

The old link you have seems pretty old, last I checked the responses were close to 225 I believe.

Hope google folks could retrieve the file.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

smpatel wrote:bobblehead,

The old link you have seems pretty old, last I checked the responses were close to 225 I believe.

Hope google folks could retrieve the file.
BigFoot48 fortunately had that copy saved out to his desktop while he was working on some formulas. Who would have thought you need to save a hard copy of a Google Document?? :shock:

As soon as I hear from Google I'll post an update.
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DaleMaley
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by DaleMaley »

The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning was written by all the volunteer authors submitted their chapters using Google Docs. The Google Docs system went down for several days before Google finally fixed it.

I think this was in 2009 time frame................here we are 3 years later and Google Docs still has significant down time????
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

DaleMaley wrote:The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning was written by all the volunteer authors submitted their chapters using Google Docs. The Google Docs system went down for several days before Google finally fixed it.

I think this was in 2009 time frame................here we are 3 years later and Google Docs still has significant down time????
I am frustrated by this, because I have other Google Docs that are working just fine. During the time frame you mentioned, was all of Google Docs down or just the files for the book?
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by H22 »

Google's maintenance of their "cloud" appears to still be in beta...
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

Howie wrote:Google's maintenance of their "cloud" appears to still be in beta...
That's probably true. Where is the one-click recover that accesses the backup servers in a separate location? I do keep some important data in other Google spreadsheets, but this is making me lose some faith in them.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by DaleMaley »

bobblehead wrote:
DaleMaley wrote:The Bogleheads Guide to Retirement Planning was written by all the volunteer authors submitted their chapters using Google Docs. The Google Docs system went down for several days before Google finally fixed it.

I think this was in 2009 time frame................here we are 3 years later and Google Docs still has significant down time????
I am frustrated by this, because I have other Google Docs that are working just fine. During the time frame you mentioned, was all of Google Docs down or just the files for the book?
We were only using the Word equivalent portion of Google Docs...........I don't know if the spreadsheet or other functions were down since we were not using them.
Most investors, both institutional and individual, will find that the best way to own common stocks is through an index fund that charges minimal fees. – Warren Buffett
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

Another user gave me a copy of the spreadsheet that had 220 rows, so I added those to this copy: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... TBNc2drY2c

Also, I did receive a reply on the Google Groups Report an Issue page.
Is it unreachable because of an automated algorithm misidentification of a Terms of Service violation? If so, you can post the URL here and AnaLikesLattes may unblock it for you (she's the Google employee who does most of the unblocking of terms of service errors).

If it's not available from your documents list, then you can try searching for "*" to see if that brings up the missing document. Also look in your trash in case it has been mistakenly placed there.
I gave the link for our spreadsheet, and hopefully it's a simple unlocking that will solve the problem.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by madbrain »

So is this still supposed to be editable or not ? I tried the form earlier tonight, but it did not work.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

madbrain wrote:So is this still supposed to be editable or not ? I tried the form earlier tonight, but it did not work.
Right now things are down. Sometimes the form works, but the results spreadsheet causes an error so I'm not sure if the results are being tracked. I'll keep posting any updates I have.
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BigFoot48
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by BigFoot48 »

I hope Google can restore the spreadsheet but I see a number of posts in the Google forum dealing with suddenly inaccessible spreadsheets and the lack of responses indicating their problem was solved leads me to think there's a lot of unhappy campers out there.

Glad to see someone had a 220 row copy which takes the data up to Sunday morning, about the time it went away I believe.

You might want to take the input form link off-line until the spreadsheet is restored.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 18-time loser
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

Thanks for the suggestion. I took the links off the original post since there's no reason to click on them. We could really do some interesting analyses with the data we do have (which is most of it, as you mention). 220 rows may not be enough to look at 1-year age patterns, but 5-year intervals would be fairly large numbers in each group.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

I produced a cluster tree diagram to see how related the different net worth components are. Assets do not include SS or Pension in these calculations. NW = Assets - Debt.

I think it's interesting that Asset Allocation and Student Loans aren't really linked to anything. Social Security I would expect since some people put in a value at age 65, others put $0. Also interesting is the link between pension value and residence value.

Image
Last edited by bobblehead on Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:53 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Slick8503
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by Slick8503 »

Image doesn't work for me, Bobblehead.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by dkturner »

Slick8503 wrote:Image doesn't work for me, Bobblehead.
It doesn't work for me either.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

I just updated the link - does it work now?
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by Slick8503 »

I can see it now, yes. Thanks.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

I did some modeling on Net Worth and Age based on chisey's prior model as a guide.

Using 216 data points, I took a log transform of both age and net worth to create nicer looking residuals. I had to remove 5 points with negative or $0 values of net worth. Instead of using a linear model I used a 2nd order polynomial. Net worth should eventually level off, and the numbers looked more reasonable with this model in comparison to the linear.

Final Model: NW = 10^(-757*log(age)^2/100+27953*log(age)/1000-4841/250) r-squared = 0.69

Predicted NW values:

Code: Select all

Age  Net Worth
20	$15,492
25	$82,994
30	$256,498
35	$561,498
40	$975,550
45	$1,440,769
50	$1,890,212
55	$2,269,189
60	$2,544,898
65	$2,706,387
70	$2,759,419
75	$2,719,989
Here are plots on the regular scale and log scale. For the regular scale plot I am not showing one value of approximately $30mil NW. Removing this point did not make any difference in the model results so it is left in.


Image
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/b7ICW ... 7MQY=w1600
Last edited by bobblehead on Tue Jan 17, 2012 9:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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GregLee
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by GregLee »

bobblehead wrote:Final Model: NW = 10^(-757*log(age)^2/100+27953*log(age)/1000-4841/250) r-squared = 0.69
Would you expect to be able to predict when people are retiring by finding when they stop accumulating assets? (The maximal NW seems to be at around 70.)
Greg, retired 8/10.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

GregLee wrote:
bobblehead wrote:Final Model: NW = 10^(-757*log(age)^2/100+27953*log(age)/1000-4841/250) r-squared = 0.69
Would you expect to be able to predict when people are retiring by finding when they stop accumulating assets? (The maximal NW seems to be at around 70.)
According to the model age 70 is when the NW starts slightly dropping. I would call it more of a leveling off though.

Code: Select all

Age  Net Worth
68	$2,750,354
69	$2,756,819
70	$2,759,419
71	$2,758,307
72	$2,753,641
The point at which the yearly net worth increase starts going down is age 44. This may be due to kids in college, early retirement, or both.
MoneyOCD
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by MoneyOCD »

bobblehead wrote:Final Model: NW = 10^(-757*log(age)^2/100+27953*log(age)/1000-4841/250)
r-squared = 0.69
That is Great!!! Just Great!!!
r-squared is also better then was in the first thread, we definitely got better data here. :P

On other hand it is not that great as we are obviously way more behind then I thought :roll: :evil:
Will need to re-look at our saving plan and start catching up 8-)
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by FrugalInvestor »

Why is just one month of SS benefits added to total NW and assets?
Have a plan, stay the course and simplify. Then ignore the noise!
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GregLee
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by GregLee »

FrugalInvestor wrote:Why is just one month of SS benefits added to total NW and assets?
That might be a hold-over from the early version that we have to look at until Google gets their act together. But basically, it's a mistake that was discussed above, somewhere, in this thread.
Greg, retired 8/10.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by FrugalInvestor »

GregLee wrote:
FrugalInvestor wrote:Why is just one month of SS benefits added to total NW and assets?
That might be a hold-over from the early version that we have to look at until Google gets their act together. But basically, it's a mistake that was discussed above, somewhere, in this thread.
Sorry for not noticing that it was previously mentioned. Thanks for the reply.
Have a plan, stay the course and simplify. Then ignore the noise!
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by JULIE »

N/mmm
Last edited by JULIE on Thu Jan 19, 2012 6:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

The Google Docs Support Team was able to get our spreadsheet working again.
Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 19PRXZDYVE

Is there any interest in opening the form back up?
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by NightHeart »

I would love it if you could open the form back up. I didn't get to enter my data yet and I think what you are doing here is very useful.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by GregLee »

bobblehead wrote:Is there any interest in opening the form back up?
Thanks for doing this. Yes; in fact, I think it's a candidate for being stickied.
Greg, retired 8/10.
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FrugalInvestor
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by FrugalInvestor »

I think it would be good to get as much (good) data as possible. This is an interesting exercise. Thanks for your efforts.
Have a plan, stay the course and simplify. Then ignore the noise!
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by madbrain »

bobblehead wrote:The Google Docs Support Team was able to get our spreadsheet working again.
Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... 19PRXZDYVE

Is there any interest in opening the form back up?
Yes. I wasn't able to fill out this survey. Only the previous simpler one which was simple NW/age.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

Fantastic! I put the link up for the form in the original post. I apologize if anyone has previously submitted a form since around Sunday 3:30PM, since that data did not come through in the recovered spreadsheet.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by ruralavalon »

investor.saver1 wrote:
market timer wrote:
investor.saver1 wrote:A 26 year old may have paid in just a couple years. It seems reasonable to me that the contribution to NW of my SS would be many times higher than the contribution to NW of the 26 year old. The same holds true for a company pension. While it would not be perfect by any means, perhaps the following adjustment could be made: NVP X (("current age" - 24)/40) where 24 is the standard age whereby an individual enters the workforce and 40 is the standard number of working years. Obviously for an individual > 64 years of age, there would be no adjustment necessary.

Don't know if the above makes sense or not, but thought I'd just throw it out for discussion.
This is a fair point. For convenience, I'd rather leave it to the users to enter the monthly SS to which they're entitled based on prior contributions. As for the linear approximation, the benefits ramp up pretty quickly, to the point that someone can achieve something like 75% of the max SS benefits just from the first 10 years of contributions.
Fair enough market timer. Thanks for the feedback. I didn't realize that SS would ramp up that quickly.
I am of the view that assets and expected future income (either SS or pension) are different things.

However If expected future income is to be somehow reduced to an asset value, then I think that the most accurate way to do that is to price the lump sum cost of annuitizing to buy the expected income stream.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by madbrain »

I filled it out. I left pension out since I don't have one. Also left SS out, since I don't currently receive it, and don't expect to make it to SS age.
It doesn't look like any automatic net worth calculations were made for my entry, or any other entry submitted today.
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bobblehead
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by bobblehead »

If there are any Google spreadsheet guru's that would like to help me get the formulas to drop-down automatically please shoot me a PM with your Google username. When a new form gets submitted it overwrites any formulas in that new row. Previously we had things working with the arrayformula function, but right now the calculations aren't dropping down.
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CaliJim
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by CaliJim »

Bump

See first post in this thread and use the form link to enter your data if you haven't already.
letsgobobby
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by letsgobobby »

glad to see it back, and it's very interesting.

The most positive thing I learned from this is how many truly wealthy Bogleheads there are. It is inspiring, to say the least (financially speaking).

The most depressing thing I learned is that I am apparently in the last year of the first half of my life. Beginning next year, my life expectancy is less than my years lived. Now that is eye-opening.
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Re: Improved Net Worth by Age [and plot]

Post by MoneyOCD »

Bump

We got 7 new data points.
OP, can you (or whoever have rights) copy formulas down?
Thanks
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