Thanks LadyGeekLadyGeek wrote:^^^ You're welcome.
New member bossballer41 has a question which I've moved into a stand-alone post, see: Starting a Three-Fund Portfolio - which funds?

Thanks LadyGeekLadyGeek wrote:^^^ You're welcome.
New member bossballer41 has a question which I've moved into a stand-alone post, see: Starting a Three-Fund Portfolio - which funds?
The more I struggle to perfect and tilt my portfolio with ever smaller adjustments the more apparent the inherent wisdom of the 3 fund portfolio becomes. It is a a marvelous straightforward solution to a complex issue, dare I say it is a supremely elegant solution. Thank you.Taylor Larimore wrote:After a lifetime of investing since 1950 trying to "beat the market," I am convinced that a simple 3-fund (or ETF) portfolio of Total Stock Market, Total International, and Total Bond Market, properly allocated, is an ideal portfolio for most investors.
I think you are looking for information on how to determine your AA, based on your age. Once you decide what your AA should be, 80/20; 50/50; 40/60 etc. then allocate as follows:LXEX55 wrote:May I ask what would be the suggested allocation of these three funds for a person who retires at age 63? Would you just do 33% each or go heavier on one fund?
LXEX55:LXEX55 wrote:May I ask what would be the suggested allocation of these three funds for a person who retires at age 63? Would you just do 33% each or go heavier on one fund?
Jack Bogle will typically recommend "age in bonds" to start. An investors asset allocation is dependent on timeframe, tolerance for risk, and goals.LXEX55 wrote:May I ask what would be the suggested allocation of these three funds for a person who retires at age 63? Would you just do 33% each or go heavier on one fund?
https://www.financial-planning.com/slid ... ury-so-far"As an example of simplicity, over a decade ago I taught my son how to invest using just three index funds:
· A total stock index fund such as VTSMX
· A total international stock index fund such as VGTSX
· A total bond fund such as VBTLX
With these funds (or better yet, lower cost share classes of these funds), my son owned virtually every publicly held company on the planet, as well as an approximation of nearly every fixed-rate investment grade bond in the U.S."
"Noble Laureate William Sharpe’s paper "Arithmetic and Active Management" proved that owning the entire market at the lowest costs must beat the majority of investors."
"Owning even one other stock fund will actually decrease diversification since it will be making specific bets on industries, styles, or other factors."
"Over the years, I’ve benchmarked hundreds of portfolios against the equivalent weighted three-fund portfolio and can count on one hand the number of portfolios I’ve seen that bested this benchmark."
"The simple three-fund portfolio with a target and tolerance range for each fund sends the client on their way without them needing me in the future."
No, because:Drew31 wrote:Since I'm debating removing my tilts for a 3fund in another thread I'm curious for those that have held the 3 fund for s number of years have you had any regrets? Ever felt as if you were "missing out"?
Fast forward to 2017 and International is beating US YTD:selftalk wrote:Unfortunately a lot of folks are PEEKING at this time and seeing how the international arena is under performing the U.S. and are getting worried and impatient. We`ve read a lot about the performances of different asset classes on this website and intellectually we all know about reversion to the mean AND YET THE HUMAN EMOTIONS TAKE HOLD and try to motivate us into action. Stay the course is not for sissies I suppose. Have and muster up GRIT as it will most probably get you where you want to go in the long run by doing what`s been proven successful in years gone past.
I can argue against holding both the S&P500 and Total Stock Market Index because the two funds have a 0.99 correlation with each other since 2001. You're not getting any diversification benefits by holding both.selftalk wrote:I`m comfortable to do what Buffett and Bogle suggest and that is own the S&P 500 for Buffett and the Total Stock Market Index Fund suggested by Bogle. Both funds have earned almost exactly the same results over the long term. My proxy for a bond fund however is my monthly income from my pension and my monthly income from social security. How can you argue against what these two masters advocate. I try to learn from the best and not chase rainbows ( other allocations ) written by other authorities to beat the major index.
Pretty sure selftalk meant TSM and TBM (or S&P/TBM) as this is what Bogle recommends.watchnerd wrote:I can argue against holding both the S&P500 and Total Stock Market Index because the two funds have a 0.99 correlation with each other since 2001. You're not getting any diversification benefits by holding both.selftalk wrote:I`m comfortable to do what Buffett and Bogle suggest and that is own the S&P 500 for Buffett and the Total Stock Market Index Fund suggested by Bogle. Both funds have earned almost exactly the same results over the long term. My proxy for a bond fund however is my monthly income from my pension and my monthly income from social security. How can you argue against what these two masters advocate. I try to learn from the best and not chase rainbows ( other allocations ) written by other authorities to beat the major index.
Pick one or the other.
No, I think the reference is to Buffett suggesting one thing and Bogle suggesting a (not different) different thing and the OP has decided to blend the two suggestions. The OP is also following Bogle's advice that you can let pensions and SS stand in for bonds and not actually invest in any bonds, if that is how it works out.gvsucavie03 wrote:Pretty sure selftalk meant TSM and TBM (or S&P/TBM) as this is what Bogle recommends.watchnerd wrote:I can argue against holding both the S&P500 and Total Stock Market Index because the two funds have a 0.99 correlation with each other since 2001. You're not getting any diversification benefits by holding both.selftalk wrote:I`m comfortable to do what Buffett and Bogle suggest and that is own the S&P 500 for Buffett and the Total Stock Market Index Fund suggested by Bogle. Both funds have earned almost exactly the same results over the long term. My proxy for a bond fund however is my monthly income from my pension and my monthly income from social security. How can you argue against what these two masters advocate. I try to learn from the best and not chase rainbows ( other allocations ) written by other authorities to beat the major index.
Pick one or the other.
Because in Vanguard's opinion adding the international bond fund provides more diversification and is a good thing. I'm not in favor of it.stuart2010 wrote:Why did Vanguard make the Life Strategy Fund with the total international bond fund?
What is the purpose of this money? When do you expect to need it? Is it part of your retirement portfolio (which the three-fund portfolio was designed for) or something else? Since it is likely that these home sale proceeds are going into a taxable account, using a balanced fund like LifeStrategy with its taxable bonds is not the best option. And if you go with the three separate funds you should reconsider the Total US Bond fund and perhaps use a muni bond fund.Should i skip the Life Strategy fund and just go to the separate three Vanguard funds; Total US stock, Total International Stock and Total US Bond?
Now, I also invest in the TSP... since I am military. Fishing50 advised/ recommended me to ignore VBTLX and go with the G and F funds of the TSP. Would this be something you recommend? ? I am already in the L2050 fund for my TSP, and the 2060 Target retirement fund with Vanguard.
Kennyt7:Kennyt7 wrote:you need a small cap fund and an em fund
Best wishes.Warren Buffett: "There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult."
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/28/retirem ... index.html"When you're building a portfolio for retirement -- or any other purpose, for that matter -- your goal shouldn't be to load up with as many different types of investments as you can (although you can certainly get that impression given the constant flow of new and often gimmicky funds and ETFs that financial services funds churn out)."
"I prefer the total stock market fund approach I described above rather than separate funds for large-, mid- and small-cap stocks because it keeps things simpler and requires less monitoring and managing of one's portfolio."
"If you start throwing yet more funds into your current mix, I'd say you run the risk of turning your portfolio into an unwieldy mishmash of overlapping holdings that don't work together as a coherent whole. In short, you stand a good chance of "di-worse-ifying" rather than diversifying."
"Your next step is to make sure that your stock and bond holdings generally reflect the makeup of the stock and bond market overall. For example, large-company stocks account for roughly 70% of total stock market value, while midcaps and small-caps represent about 20% and 10% respectively. Your holdings don't have to mirror these percentages exactly. But if you want a truly diversified portfolio with a risk profile largely in line with that of the market overall, then you don't want your portfolio's proportions to be too far off either."
"Don't assume that more is better when it comes to funds."
Great article! What I found most interesting is the author notes that a simple Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond should work for most folks. If one is so inclined, the author recommends the Vanguard Four Fund Portfolio by adding Total International Stock and Total International Bond.Taylor Larimore wrote:Bogleheads:
Walter Updegrave, retired senior editor at MONEY magazine, has written an important article about the number of funds needed for adequate diversification. These are excerpts:
http://money.cnn.com/2017/06/28/retirem ... index.html"When you're building a portfolio for retirement -- or any other purpose, for that matter -- your goal shouldn't be to load up with as many different types of investments as you can (although you can certainly get that impression given the constant flow of new and often gimmicky funds and ETFs that financial services funds churn out)."
"I prefer the total stock market fund approach I described above rather than separate funds for large-, mid- and small-cap stocks because it keeps things simpler and requires less monitoring and managing of one's portfolio."
"If you start throwing yet more funds into your current mix, I'd say you run the risk of turning your portfolio into an unwieldy mishmash of overlapping holdings that don't work together as a coherent whole. In short, you stand a good chance of "di-worse-ifying" rather than diversifying."
"Your next step is to make sure that your stock and bond holdings generally reflect the makeup of the stock and bond market overall. For example, large-company stocks account for roughly 70% of total stock market value, while midcaps and small-caps represent about 20% and 10% respectively. Your holdings don't have to mirror these percentages exactly. But if you want a truly diversified portfolio with a risk profile largely in line with that of the market overall, then you don't want your portfolio's proportions to be too far off either."
"Don't assume that more is better when it comes to funds."
Best wishes.
Taylor
Hi Kennyt7 -Kennyt7 wrote:you need a small cap fund and an em fund
Wait, don't you tilt towards Reits?abuss368 wrote:Hi Kennyt7 -Kennyt7 wrote:you need a small cap fund and an em fund
When an investor follows a strategy of total market index funds, one is essentially buying the haystack. All publicly traded companies are included. Vanguard provides just that: Total Stock and Bond funds for both U.S. and International at a very low cost.
More funds almost always results in more complexity.
Best.
Yes, however an investor does not have too! I have family members invested in Jack Bogle's Two Fund Portfolio and plan to stay the course.gvsucavie03 wrote:Wait, don't you tilt towards Reits?abuss368 wrote:Hi Kennyt7 -Kennyt7 wrote:you need a small cap fund and an em fund
When an investor follows a strategy of total market index funds, one is essentially buying the haystack. All publicly traded companies are included. Vanguard provides just that: Total Stock and Bond funds for both U.S. and International at a very low cost.
More funds almost always results in more complexity.
Best.
abuss368 wrote:Yes, however an investor does not have too! I have family members invested in Jack Bogle's Two Fund Portfolio and plan to stay the course.gvsucavie03 wrote:Wait, don't you tilt towards Reits?abuss368 wrote:Hi Kennyt7 -Kennyt7 wrote:you need a small cap fund and an em fund
When an investor follows a strategy of total market index funds, one is essentially buying the haystack. All publicly traded companies are included. Vanguard provides just that: Total Stock and Bond funds for both U.S. and International at a very low cost.
More funds almost always results in more complexity.
Best.
newcomer 2017:newcomer2017 wrote:Taylor,
As a newcomer and beginner in investment, I really like your three fund portfolio post. May I ask which cost basis method you applied for your account? Want to follow you exactly.
Thanks!
Hi Taylor -Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Sun Aug 06, 2017 2:55 pm Bogleheads:
Warren Buffet Says 99% of Investors Should Not Even Try to Beat the Market
Warren Buffet would like The Three-Fund Portfolio.
Best wishes
Taylor
[Title fixed by admin LadyGeek]
Hi snarlyjack -snarlyjack wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:44 pm Taylor,
I wanted to let you know that I converted my Roth IRA to
the 3 fund portfolio. I put it in the Life Strategy Fund
80/20 growth portfolio. Because of my age I felt the
80/20 fund would be best for me.
Thank you for all your help & contributions to Bogleheads.
snarlyjack:snarlyjack wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2017 6:44 pm Taylor,
I wanted to let you know that I converted my Roth IRA to
the 3 fund portfolio. I put it in the Life Strategy Fund
80/20 growth portfolio. Because of my age I felt the
80/20 fund would be best for me.
Thank you for all your help & contributions to Bogleheads.
I balance to 33% each. Not because that ratio is better than any other, but because it is easy to rebalance. Every quarter I average the highest and lowest fund.
I stumbled upon this. You have done it sir.Taylor Larimore wrote: ↑Tue Aug 07, 2012 7:23 pmHi Sunny:Sunny Sarkar wrote:Here is a link to Taylor's original post from 1999 on this topic in the old M* forum...
Which is better--15 funds or 4?
All the best,
Sunny
Thank you for the link to my original post recommending the 3-fund portfolio (plus a money market fund). It is gratifying for me to see how well that post has stood the test of time. Vanguard has recognized its merits by adopting it for their Target and Life Strategy Funds.
I made more than 25,000 posts on the old Morningstar Vanguard Diehard forum trying to help investors. I hope I live long enough to do the same here. It is immensely satisfying to be a soldier in Mr. Bogle's crusade "to give ordinary investors a fair shake."
Best wishes.
Taylor