REGISTRATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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REGISTRATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore » Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:59 am

I am pleased to announce our twelfth annual Boglehead Contest with tracking by Boglehead Ralph Arversen

Last January we had 363 Bogleheads' forecast where the S&P 500 Index would be at the end of 2011. Their guesses ranged from 666.00 to 1927.10. The Index closed at 1257.60 (within 0000.04 of where it began).

2012 (and earlier) BOGLEHEAD CONTESTS

The 2012 contest winner will receive a choice of any one of the two Boglehead Guides AND a choice of any one of Mr. Bogle's great books.

Rules for the 2012 Boglehead Contest:

* Forecast the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2012.
* Only one guess (no percentages).
* Registration ends midnight (forum time), January 10, 20l2
* In event of ties, the first forecast wins
* Winner must PM me by January 10, 2013 to confirm user name and mailing address.
* Post your 2012 S&P Index forecast below

HAPPY NEW YEAR and GOOD LUCK!

Taylor Larimore
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"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

FillorKill
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by FillorKill » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:03 am

1316.49

RRP
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RRP » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:04 am

1295.33
Wiki

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VictoriaF
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by VictoriaF » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:05 am

666

Victoria
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

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Salty1
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Salty1 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:06 am

I430.96 I'm reusing last year's number...but adjusting for last year :D
I'm going to be in the 10 ten ... in getting my guess in :lol:

nonroom
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by nonroom » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:09 am

985.96
You cannot control the actions of others. You can only control your reactions to their actions.

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JPH
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JPH » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:14 am

1408.44
While the moments do summersaults into eternity | Cling to their coattails and beg them to stay - Townes Van Zandt

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BigFoot48
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BigFoot48 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:15 am

1297.11

Came to me while eating pie.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

alanf56
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by alanf56 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:17 am

1314.00

dbltrbl
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dbltrbl » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:18 am

1372.18 :roll:

froggy
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by froggy » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:19 am

1384.56

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Rick Ferri
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Rick Ferri » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:22 am

1505

The eternal optimist!

Rick Ferri
The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.

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BTDT
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BTDT » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:25 am

1399.99

Actually, I have absolutely no idea but I like 9's

John Clark
If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.

The Wizard
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by The Wizard » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:26 am

1383.36

When I win this contest, i dont want to be in a tie for first.
So in nine days, if anyone else has picked my number, i want to tweak mine by a penny or two to be unique...
Last edited by The Wizard on Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
Attempted new signature...

gkaplan
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gkaplan » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:29 am

1212.70
Gordon

mikeast
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1412

Post by mikeast » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:30 am

1412

Happy New Year !

Triple digit golfer
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Triple digit golfer » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:35 am

1,257.60

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Tortuga
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Tortuga » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:37 am

1482.71

gailcox
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by gailcox » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:39 am

1450

Final answer!

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elgob.bogle
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by elgob.bogle » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:41 am

1313.13

not very optimistic

elgob.bogle

word
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by word » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:48 am

1401.01

earlyout
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by earlyout » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:55 am

Same as last year -- 1350

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abuss368
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by abuss368 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:57 am

1,324.85
John C. Bogle: "You simply do not need to put your money into 8 different mutual funds!" | | Disclosure: Three Fund Portfolio + U.S. & International REITs

paper200
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by paper200 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:58 am

S&P500 31st Dec 2012 - 1450
Having freedom, food and roof is being 90% lucky in life and so is index investing. So, don't let the remaining 10% bother you.

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xystici
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by xystici » Sun Jan 01, 2012 9:58 am

1446.24

Great 2012 for everyone...
Trust yourself, Break the rules, Don't be afraid to fail, Don't listen to naysayers, Work your butt off. "It is in your moments of decision that your destiny is shaped. Choose now and well"

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Higman
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Higman » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:03 am

1550.

--political comment deleted--

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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Grt2bOutdoors » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:04 am

My prediction for 2012 - 1320.48. Here's to a year where pre-tax returns exceeds I bond rates, Mel, hehehe.
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions

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Rob54keep
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Rob54keep » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:08 am

1355 is a VERY hopeful number.

jj
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jj » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:11 am

1373.22 (same as last year's guess)

A Happy New Year to all!
...it is madness to risk losing what you need in pursuing what you simply desire. Warren E. Buffett

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JMacDonald
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JMacDonald » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:13 am

Hi,
My prediction: 1490.30
Last edited by JMacDonald on Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
Best Wishes, | Joe

livelife
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by livelife » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:14 am

1390.5

dave2589
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by dave2589 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:15 am

1301.04.

Cuzz35
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Cuzz35 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:17 am

1397.25

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Majormajor78
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Majormajor78 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:18 am

S&P 1356
"Oh, M. le Comte, it is only a loss of money which I have sustained... nothing worth mentioning, I assure you."

AgnosticInvestor
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by AgnosticInvestor » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:19 am

665 (one below 666, 'Price is Right'-style).

goalie
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by goalie » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:22 am

1199.99 :evil:

lazyfabs
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by lazyfabs » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:24 am

1358

cheers :beer
"I think the best way to find happiness is to stop looking so hard." - Kermit the Frog

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Dogfather
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dogfather » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:26 am

1444

[political comments removed by Mod]

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LadyGeek
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LadyGeek » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:32 am

1318.20 = 2011 close * ( 1 + (some number/(some other number)) )

Numbers determined from my astronomy set of lucky numbers.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.

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Sbashore
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Sbashore » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:33 am

1495.04
Steve | Semper Fi

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paco sabio
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by paco sabio » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:34 am

1389.65 will most certainly be the number. A little higher than last years prediction but we will have some revision to the mean now when we need it.

Pasc Sabio

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burgrat
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by burgrat » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:37 am

1353.75

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Sally
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Sally » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:37 am

1315....for the 3rd year in a row....

Sally

mikep
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mikep » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:38 am

1234.56 - Easy to remember.

peppers
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by peppers » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:39 am

1330.54
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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speedbump101
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by speedbump101 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:42 am

1351.92
"Man is not a rational animal, he is a rationalizing animal" -Robert A. Heinlein

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Quasimodo
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Quasimodo » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:44 am

725

John
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Dadarkar
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Dadarkar » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:45 am

1194.72

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camper
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by camper » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:47 am

1377.27

r60rider
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Re: REGISTERATION FOR 2012 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by r60rider » Sun Jan 01, 2012 10:51 am

1490.00

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