2011 Returns Thread

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

What was your 2011 Return?

Don't know, don't care
27
8%
< - 10%
7
2%
-10 to -5.1%
18
5%
-5 to -2.6%
40
12%
-2.5 to -0.1%
44
13%
0-2.5%
78
23%
2.5-4.9%
64
19%
5-7.4%
31
9%
7.5-10%
7
2%
10-14.9%
10
3%
15-19.9%
3
1%
20%+
5
1%
 
Total votes: 334

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White Coat Investor
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2011 Returns Thread

Post by White Coat Investor » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:24 pm

How'd you do this year? If you don't know how to calculate your return using XIRR or similar, take a look at this: http://whitecoatinvestor.com/how-to-cal ... -function/

My best asset class was peer to peer lending, but only with a tiny amount of money and I just got into it late in the year. My next best was my house, but it was really just a matter of buying it a year ago for less than it was worth then. Of my main portfolio, TIPS did best, followed by REITs.

Overall -3.51% for my international and small cap heavy portfolio. I was also hurt by unfortunate timing of moving some assets around between accounts. Sometimes you win with that, sometimes you don't.
Last edited by White Coat Investor on Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1) Invest you must 2) Time is your friend 3) Impulse is your enemy | 4) Basic arithmetic works 5) Stick to simplicity 6) Stay the course

Snowjob
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Snowjob » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:41 pm

Brokerage -2.95%
401k +.54%
Roth IRA + 38%
-------

Brokerage accout was hindered by private equity valuations. would have been about + 6% w/o it
401k was negatively impacted by company stock and poor EM performance, would have been about +2% w/o them
Roth IRA was positivley impacted by a market timing buy during the fall swoon, ditching some MReits for Insurers, would have been about +11 w/o.

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rustymutt
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by rustymutt » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:53 pm

I'm guessing that those 7.5% to 10% return people were heavy into TIPs. I'm I right?
Asset allocation was 40/60 stks/bonds.
Stay the course. Corrected my return after dividends reappeared 2.89%
Last edited by rustymutt on Sun Jan 01, 2012 11:38 am, edited 4 times in total.
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henry
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by henry » Fri Dec 30, 2011 6:53 pm

Down about 3 percent for the year.
Best performing asset: PIMCO Real Return R (A high expense inflation protected bond fund. One of only 2 bond funds available to me through my employer.) Up about 11% for the year.
Worst performing asset: A tie between Vanguard FTSE All World EX-US Small Cap ETF and Vanguard Global Ex-US Real Estate ETF. Both down about 20% for the year.

No changes to my plan though. Stay the course.

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iceport
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by iceport » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:14 pm

2011 XIRR = —0.57

Portfolio benchmark 2011 return ~ —0.85

I don't know how much of the (beneficial) "tracking error" was caused by the timing and allocation of the new contributions, and how much was caused by a drift to a slightly lower equity allocation than targeted (~64% targeted vs. ~62% actual). This year, a lower actual equity allocation than targeted = better returns.

--Pete

PS: XIRR from the October 2007 market peak to today ~ +1.0% (thanks, no doubt to the steady discipline instilled by this forum :beer ).
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

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zaboomafoozarg
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:39 pm

401k = 1% (stocks + bonds, DCA)
Roth IRA = 3% (bonds, lump sum in June)
Taxable = -7% (stocks, lump sum in June)
Total: -4%

gkaplan
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by gkaplan » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:46 pm

See Madsinger's forthcoming thread.
Gordon

Johm221122
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Johm221122 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:51 pm

I bonds and REI TS were my best performers and international small cap the worst.But 2.5% gain is better than a loss

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archbish99
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by archbish99 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:10 pm

My best performing asset was the employer match on my 401k. :)
I'm not a financial advisor, I just play one on the Internet.

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steve roy
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by steve roy » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:11 pm

5.6% for one year.

8.6% for three years.

3.4% for five years.

I'm heavily weighted to bonds, and have a large slug of the Vanguard TIPS fund, which has helped of late. Current allocation is 70% bonds (TIPS and short term Federal), and 30% stocks. (21% of which is foreign index funds.) I'm slightly overweighted with small caps, and considerably overweighted with mid-caps.

My target allocation is 65% bonds, 35% stocks, but I've been letting things ride. I'm planning to just keep the allocation at 70 bonds/30 stocks for the foreseeable future. I've been buying small dribs and drabs of Vanguard Total Stock Market, have gotten rid of my convertible bond fund (based on recommendations here) and have small positions in Precious Metals and Energy. My Vanguard expense ratio is 16 basis points.

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Peter Foley
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Peter Foley » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:13 pm

Up 2.89% for the year. International was worst, TIPs were my best and stable value @3.75 was my largest in terms of total dollars.

centrifuge41
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by centrifuge41 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 8:55 pm

Up 1% as per XIRR. This is over all of my long-term "investment" accounts: 401k, taxable, I bonds, HSA, and IRA. I'm surprised since I'm equity heavy, and 40% of my equities are international, with a tad bit of VSS too. The Total International Index, and VSS (FTSE all world ex-US Small cap index) have taken a severe beating.

I admit to some light market timing by buying the dips in taxable around 3/16 and around late July/early August. That's what I tend to do with taxable investments because I can't really predict when I'll have extra sitting around, and how much extra.

It's been a (slightly) positive year ;) Time to buy more international equities in a few days!

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renditt
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by renditt » Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:09 pm

Up 9%.

Got very lucky this year: munis, tips and total bond market did well, and so did various short term trades on the stock side.

A foray into FX trading almost ended disastrous ( I know, I know :oops: ) but even that (almost) came back.

Tuxx
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Tuxx » Fri Dec 30, 2011 9:19 pm

14.74%.

Wish we could still get 6% in money market accounts again. Trading is a lot of work and stress.

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BobSail
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by BobSail » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:00 pm

1.08%, 60 Equity/40 Fixed. Helped by TIPS and REITs, hurt by Int'l
Robert | 50% Fixed Income/30% US Equity/20% Int'l Equity

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Steelersfan
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Steelersfan » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:26 pm

I just barely made it into the 2.5% plus category, with a 50%/50% allocation.

It's OK.

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PaddyMac
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by PaddyMac » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:47 pm

"Now, in another cell, put in the xirr function. It looks like this: =XIRR(A1:A10, B1:B10, 5%) where your cash flows are in cells A1 to A10, your date functions are in cells B1 to B10, and 5% is your estimated return. (If left blank, it defaults to 10%.)"

thanks for the link to how to calculate XIRR, I'd really like to learn how to do this. But when it says "5% is your estimate return", where do you get this from? (We have our portfolio in Morningstar, if that helps.) Thanks.

john94549
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by john94549 » Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:52 pm

Am I missing something, or is the point of this thread "my percentage bar graph is longer than yours".

OK, OK, my percentage bar graph is longer than most, if not yours. Not bad for an old codger, eh?

jumppilot
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by jumppilot » Fri Dec 30, 2011 11:57 pm

18.7% selling calls on index ETFs.

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zaboomafoozarg
Posts: 1951
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by zaboomafoozarg » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:27 am

We might get some slightly skewed results here, while someone with a large gain selling calls will undoubtedly post here, I don't see the same happening as frequently for someone with an equally large loss :P

xerty24
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by xerty24 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 3:08 am

With choices like these, how are you supposed to tell the good results from the great ones?
No excuses, no regrets.

Mudpuppy
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Mudpuppy » Sat Dec 31, 2011 5:11 am

I won't have complete return information for about a month as the 457 account website does not give detailed transaction information (just the current totals for each fund), so I'll have to wait for the quarterly statement to arrive to know for sure how it did in the fourth quarter. But I can already tell that, like others, international sunk me this year. You know it's bad when XIRR won't even calculate the annual returns for that asset class until given an estimate of -0.3.

Carl53
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Carl53 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:48 am

Not a good year but in the 2.5 to 5%. Actually a bad year given that inflation was up and will wipe out most of our meager gains and that my long term plan is set up for 2% real return.

natureexplorer
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by natureexplorer » Sat Dec 31, 2011 6:53 am

There is an option missing: Don't know, but would like to know. It seem like a lot of effort with 401k, Roth IRA, taxable accounts, and taxes.

sscritic
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by sscritic » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:12 am

I don't know what returns are. I suspect that you include reinvested dividends as returns. I suspect that you don't include dividends that are spent on food. On the other hand, if I spend the dividends on food and put the money I would have spent on food into savings and then use the savings to buy shares, would you count the shares bought with savings as an investment return? That's why I measure advancement in investable assets, not returns. I will let you know the answer after I see what my bond funds paid yesterday. Interest is not part of their NAV, so yesterday's close is not the year end value.

Did you all have a nice New Year's Eve party Thursday night? My year wasn't over yet on Friday afternoon.

Yup, just checked, another $0.42 showed up in my money fund this morning.

Back again: up 4.66% so far this year, but I haven't yet included my 12/31 pension payment. It should have been deposited yesterday. My checking account should be up about $1000 from a month ago, which is the last time I recorded my checking account balance as part of my investable assets.
Last edited by sscritic on Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

chipperd
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by chipperd » Sat Dec 31, 2011 7:34 am

4.1% including home value.
2.4% not including home value

Return on investment in friends and family..... priceless

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SpartanFan
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by SpartanFan » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:43 am

4.45% return

40% Stocks
60% Bonds

Largest Holdings:

VBILX - 16.4% of Total Port (31.2% of Bond Holdings)
PTTRX - 14.6% of Total Port (28% of Bond Holdings)
VAIPX - 12.7% of Total Port (24.2% of Bond Holdings)
VDAIX - 10.9% of Total Port (27.2% of Stock Holdings)
"There's a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in" - Leonard Cohen

Cubsfan
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Cubsfan » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:51 am

7.4 %. I attribute my success to dumb luck. Heavy on TIPS, which helped a lot. Had a couple of accounts just stay in Wellesley or Wellington all year and they did well also. I got very nervous about the situation in Europe earlier in the year and reduced my allocation to international. The jury is still out on that move - I still have to pick the right time to get back into it. According to my IPS, I never should have reduced the international exposure.

In summary, the fact that I made 7.4% in 2011 is good, but the fact that I ignored my own IPS and started playing hunches may pose future problems. As I look at the results, it strikes me that I really need to stick to the game plan and stop speculating.

livesoft
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by livesoft » Sat Dec 31, 2011 8:57 am

My overall portfolio is going to end up down about 3% for 2011. Yep, down. My asset allocation is about 31% US, 31% foreign, 31% bonds, and 7% TIAA-REA with about half of equities large-cap and half-small/mid cap.

This year foreign holdings did not do so well and that impacted my returns. My largest single position is VSS (small-cap foreign index) which is down 20% for 2011. My second largest is VBR (small-cap value index) which is down 4%. Large foreign is down about 14%.

But I am beating one of my benchmarks (a DFA portfolio of similar asset allocation) by almost 2%.
Another benchmark is the Vanguard Target Retirement 2020 fund which has 34% bonds and less foreign has returned about 0.6%.
Vg TR2025 is 27% bonds and has returned -0.4%.
Vg TR2010 is 53% bonds and has returned 3.4%.
Vg Wellington is 35% fixed income and has returned about 4%.

Dirty secret tidbit: Best performing significant position in livesoft's portfolio is up 40%. It's the stock PM.
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FabLab
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by FabLab » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:00 am

My best performing asset was my dog: he brought cheer to all throughout our home :D
The fundamental things apply as time goes by -- Herman Hupfeld

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SpringMan
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by SpringMan » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:10 am

up 2.5% for full year 2011 but for the half year beginning July 1 down 4%. Portfolio is 42% equity, 58% fixed income.
Best Wishes, SpringMan

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BigFoot48
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by BigFoot48 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:27 am

Up 4.2% in IRAs (XIRR)- 45%/55% bond heavy coffeehouse portfolio. Dividends and interest were 2X my IRA withdrawals, thank you social security.
Retired | Two-time in top-10 in Bogleheads S&P500 contest; 12-time loser

sscritic
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by sscritic » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:36 am

livesoft wrote:My overall portfolio is going to end up down about 3% for 2011. Yep, down. My asset allocation is about 31% US, 31% foreign, 31% bonds, and 7% TIAA-REA with about half of equities large-cap and half-small/mid cap.
Give credit where credit is due.
Total return year-to-date as of 12/30/2011 : 12.99%
Which of livesoft's stated holdings was up 12.99%?

peppers
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by peppers » Sat Dec 31, 2011 9:41 am

The Essence of Survival


Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed...every morning a lion wakes up. It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. It dosen't matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle....when the sun comes up, you,d better be running.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."

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Groundhog
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Groundhog » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:22 am

My first year as a Boglehead and I was up all night crunching the numbers. I came in with a .48% return with a 59/41 stock/bond+cash portfolio. All that work for nothing! Just kidding, I learned an awful lot from the Bogleheads this year and I do sleep better at night now that I'm a Boglehead. Happy New Year everyone!

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Lbill
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Lbill » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:28 am

Which of livesoft's stated holdings was up 12.99%?
Lemme see. It wasn't stocks and it wasn't TBM. What could it be????
"Life can only be understood backward; but it must be lived forward." ~ Søren Kierkegaard | | "You can't connect the dots looking forward; but only by looking backwards." ~ Steve Jobs

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Jake46
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Jake46 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:35 am

1.4% return on 60% bonds/40% stocks portfolio

nonroom
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by nonroom » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:37 am

Portfolio down -1.5% for they year.


Best class was Vanguard TIPS Fund
Worst was TISM

80% Stock (40% US, 30% Int'l, 10% REIT)
20% Bond (15% Inter Bnd, 5% TIPS)

May 2012 be better!
You cannot control the actions of others. You can only control your reactions to their actions.

natureexplorer
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by natureexplorer » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:38 am

Lbill wrote:
Which of livesoft's stated holdings was up 12.99%?
Lemme see. It wasn't stocks and it wasn't TBM. What could it be????
Maybe GNMA?

sscritic
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by sscritic » Sat Dec 31, 2011 10:45 am

Which of livesoft's holdings was up 12.99% this year? TIAA-REA (Real Estate Account, a variable annuity), which is 7% of his holdings.
http://www.tiaa-cref.org/public/perform ... /1009.html
livesoft wrote:7% TIAA-REA

pinebarrens1
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by pinebarrens1 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:05 am

-7.7% for 2011

40% SV/ 40% Intl Small/ 20% Int Treasury

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iceport
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by iceport » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:14 am

natureexplorer wrote:There is an option missing: Don't know, but would like to know. It seem like a lot of effort with 401k, Roth IRA, taxable accounts, and taxes.
Wow, taxes. I hadn't even thought about including those. Seems like it would be enormously difficult for withdrawals from tax deferred accounts, as you'd have to account for the marginal tax rate at the time of contributions and the effective tax rate at the time of withdrawals, correct? Then with taxable accounts, there are dividends (qualified and not), LT and ST capital gains, and tax-loss harvesting to account for. Whew.

I hope this poll wasn't expecting after-tax returns! But natureexplorer is correct in thinking taxes could make a significant difference, and should somehow be accounted for. I wouldn't have the ambition to try that.

As for pre-tax returns, it's really not that much effort if you track contributions and withdrawals throughout the year. Several years ago, I stole EmergDoc's method of entering contribution dates and amounts into a spreadsheet to easily track dollar-weighted rates of return. So for a 457b, a Roth IRA, and taxable accounts I only have ~ 39 entries (26+1+12). No need to track individual transactions.

--Pete
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” ─William Bernstein

hicabob
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by hicabob » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:24 am

outside of my generic indexes I was killed on China (gxc) - did well on Home Depot - investments slightly negative for the year all in all .... :( , but an excellent year for the biz so not too much complaining.

dbr
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by dbr » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:47 am

I prefer to account for taxes as a personal expense.

For the individual investor I am not sure trying to isolate the tax cost of an investment is possible.

It is possible to calculate the marginal tax cost of choosing one investment in preference to another, all else being equal, however.

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ruralavalon
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Dec 31, 2011 11:55 am

Edit: Our portfolio returned 0.92% for 2011.

Worst performing asset: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund (VGPMX), - 21.7%.

Best performing assets: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX), + 7.70%; and
Vanguard REIT Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGSLX), + 8.62%.
Last edited by ruralavalon on Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Khuzud
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Khuzud » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:00 pm

My portfolio returned -3.11% for 2011.

For a benchmark I use a 65/35 weighting of US Market Total Return, and Barclay's Capital Aggregate. That would have returned +3.77% for the year.

The bond portion of my portfolio is almost entirely in PIMCO TR, the only bond option available to me in my 401k, and it had a pretty rotten year. The SV and International portions of my portfolio were unhelpful. And the one stock I still own, BRK, also underperformed.

livesoft
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by livesoft » Sat Dec 31, 2011 12:43 pm

EmergDoc wrote:My best asset class was peer to peer lending, ....
My spouse's 401(K) loan (peer-to-peer?) was a win since the interest rate she paid herself was more than double the return of the bond fund that she uses for 100% of her 401(k) holdings. Maybe it was even a double-double win since she invested the loaned money in a different bond fund in tax-free 529 plans that returned almost double her loan interest rate. So who says 401(k) loans are bad?
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Regal 56
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Regal 56 » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:02 pm

Down 8.09% on a 90% equiity portfolio. Foreign chunk of 35% and bad timing on a lump sum IRA contribution did me in. Oh well, wait till next year. (Rooting for Cleveland sports teams gives me a lot of practice saying that.)

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Sbashore
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by Sbashore » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:07 pm

My portfolio is 50/50. It's s/d with tilts to value, small, materials and REIT.

My return for 2011 was .25%, as in 25 basis points, including dividends.
Steve | Semper Fi

northstar
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Re: 2011 Returns Thread

Post by northstar » Sat Dec 31, 2011 1:10 pm

-10,8%. I'm 70/30, with all bonds and a big chunk of my equities in Europe.

Not a good result, but I feel good about my strategy anyways. Many in my country have done far worse this past year.

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