will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.

will the SP500 double in 7 years?

yes, it will have doubled nominally in 7 years
78
35%
no, it will not have doubled in 7 years
128
57%
yes, it will have doubled nominally and in real terms as well in 7 years
17
8%
 
Total votes: 223

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 5717
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed May 23, 2018 1:00 pm

CurlyDave wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 12:17 am
PreserveCapital wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:23 am
The S&P can only grow, over time, as much as the underlying economy grows...
I don't think this is really true. There are at least three ways the S&P can grow. One is as the economy grows, a second is that the S&P 500 could increase the share of the total economy that it represents, and a third is that profitability and/or productivity could increase.

Now, what do I mean by "total economy". This is not just the total stock market but is actually the total world economy. Even if we limit ourselves to just the US economy there are lots of mom and pop operations which are not part of the US stock market, but which can lose market share to S&P 500 companies. An example is Amazon, which is knocking the stuffing out of traditional retail, taking market share from small retailers. And, almost all S&P 500 companies have international sales, and they can grow sales in lots of non-traditional areas.

So, there is lots of room for growth in the S&P 500.
1987 was proof that the stock market and the economy aren't in lockstep with each other.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

shelanman
Posts: 462
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:35 pm

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by shelanman » Thu May 24, 2018 4:38 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:39 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 7:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:13 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:48 pm
The real question is, will the S&P 500 double in 7 years?
From now?

My crystal ball is in the shop, and they don't return my calls. :(
If you repaired a crystal ball, would you give it back? :twisted:
Good point. :oops:
I don't know. I'd need to look into the crystal ball to see whether I should.

Investment101
Posts: 66
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2014 5:09 am

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by Investment101 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:17 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon May 21, 2018 5:00 pm
Iran sanction. Production cut and consumption up. Supply and demand. Usually at end of business cycle, oil will perform well. I am adding energy too.
hmm was going to wait till end of summer to see if I want to sell oil, but now Saudi Arabia is going to increase output by 1m barrels a day. You holding/selling/buying more? What do you guys think.

DOW is down some, might be a perfect time trade vanguard energy for vanguard total stock and total international!

User avatar
Taylor Larimore
Advisory Board
Posts: 27407
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:09 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by Taylor Larimore » Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:42 pm

Investment101 wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:17 pm

Hmm was going to wait till end of summer to see if I want to sell oil, but now Saudi Arabia is going to increase output by 1m barrels a day. You holding/selling/buying more? What do you guys think.
Investment 101:

I think you should stay the course (assuming it is a good one).

Best wishes.
Taylor
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle

User avatar
siamond
Posts: 4184
Joined: Mon May 28, 2012 5:50 am

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by siamond » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:09 pm

shelanman wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 11:25 am
So... should we do this again? Start a poll for whether the S&P will get to 4,800 (or, anyway, that total return will exceed 100%) over the next 7 years?

(I would, but apparently I don't have permission to create polls)
It's not you. Nobody can create a new poll any more, following a very dubious decision from the owners of this forum, based on a non-sensical rationale... Sigh. Now, of course, you can create a poll on another Web site (e.g. surveymonkey) and link it on this forum, of course.

User avatar
aspirit
Posts: 163
Joined: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:52 am
Location: Bos/Mia-south

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by aspirit » Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:02 pm

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:42 pm
Investment101 wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:17 pm

Hmm was going to wait till end of summer to see if I want to sell oil, but now Saudi Arabia is going to increase output by 1m barrels a day. You holding/selling/buying more? What do you guys think.
Investment 101:

I think you should stay the course (assuming it is a good one).

Best wishes.
Taylor
I do too, with far, far, less experience & knowledge than TL.

For a data point I recall vgenx in the mid-high 30s around 1-2/16. Had you recognized gas prices at multi-year lows in the first quarter of 2016 and speculated then, well, thats speculating, you would have made out. I suspect your recognizing everything everyone else knows now also.

I cannot speculate on the SP500 doubling in 7 yrs., :wink: markets fluctuate.

Good Luck!
Time & tides wait for no one. A man has to know his limitations.

WhiteMaxima
Posts: 1377
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 5:04 pm

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:54 pm

aspirit wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:02 pm
Taylor Larimore wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:42 pm
Investment101 wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:17 pm

Hmm was going to wait till end of summer to see if I want to sell oil, but now Saudi Arabia is going to increase output by 1m barrels a day. You holding/selling/buying more? What do you guys think.
Investment 101:

I think you should stay the course (assuming it is a good one).

Best wishes.
Taylor
I do too, with far, far, less experience & knowledge than TL.

For a data point I recall vgenx in the mid-high 30s around 1-2/16. Had you recognized gas prices at multi-year lows in the first quarter of 2016 and speculated then, well, thats speculating, you would have made out. I suspect your recognizing everything everyone else knows now also.

I cannot speculate on the SP500 doubling in 7 yrs., :wink: markets fluctuate.

Good Luck!
to double in 7 years, you would need 10-11% YOY growth. Can't image S&P500 get this kind return. Maybe domestic small or micro index.

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 11681
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:14 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:54 pm
to double in 7 years, you would need 10-11% YOY growth. Can't image S&P500 get this kind return. Maybe domestic small or micro index.
That's EXACTLY what someone else said 7 years ago
ResNullius wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2011 8:05 am
it's hard to imagine how the market could have consistent positive returns ovef the next 7 years.
Neither of you could imagine it.
The J stands for Jay

User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 11681
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by HomerJ » Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:19 pm

Investment101 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 7:06 pm
Ok for sure gonna get more VGENX ! Thanks.
So you loaded up on VGENX on May 22... It's down 6% in one short month.
Investment101 wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 1:17 pm
hmm was going to wait till end of summer to see if I want to sell oil, but now Saudi Arabia is going to increase output by 1m barrels a day. You holding/selling/buying more? What do you guys think.

DOW is down some, might be a perfect time trade vanguard energy for vanguard total stock and total international!
And now you're going to sell it for total stock and total international. You're jumping all over the place here.

You might want to read the wiki about Boglehead investing. We don't change our positions constantly based on the news. Start a new thread if you want to talk about your investing ideas.
The J stands for Jay

User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 1026
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by oldzey » Mon Jun 25, 2018 4:58 pm

Will the S&P 500 double in 7 years?

"I don't know."
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

Post Reply