will the SP500 double in 7 years?

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will the SP500 double in 7 years?

yes, it will have doubled nominally in 7 years
75
36%
no, it will not have doubled in 7 years
118
56%
yes, it will have doubled nominally and in real terms as well in 7 years
16
8%
 
Total votes: 209

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willthrill81
Posts: 4161
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by willthrill81 » Wed May 23, 2018 1:00 pm

CurlyDave wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 12:17 am
PreserveCapital wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2011 11:23 am
The S&P can only grow, over time, as much as the underlying economy grows...
I don't think this is really true. There are at least three ways the S&P can grow. One is as the economy grows, a second is that the S&P 500 could increase the share of the total economy that it represents, and a third is that profitability and/or productivity could increase.

Now, what do I mean by "total economy". This is not just the total stock market but is actually the total world economy. Even if we limit ourselves to just the US economy there are lots of mom and pop operations which are not part of the US stock market, but which can lose market share to S&P 500 companies. An example is Amazon, which is knocking the stuffing out of traditional retail, taking market share from small retailers. And, almost all S&P 500 companies have international sales, and they can grow sales in lots of non-traditional areas.

So, there is lots of room for growth in the S&P 500.
1987 was proof that the stock market and the economy aren't in lockstep with each other.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

shelanman
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:35 pm

Re: will the SP500 double in 7 years?

Post by shelanman » Thu May 24, 2018 4:38 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 8:39 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 7:14 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 6:13 pm
whodidntante wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 5:48 pm
The real question is, will the S&P 500 double in 7 years?
From now?

My crystal ball is in the shop, and they don't return my calls. :(
If you repaired a crystal ball, would you give it back? :twisted:
Good point. :oops:
I don't know. I'd need to look into the crystal ball to see whether I should.

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