Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

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MekongTrader
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Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by MekongTrader » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:46 am

Kind of stupid but can't get it out of my head.

Time Machine
Assume you would be given the unique opportunity to travel to Year 2030 for 10 seconds only. Sitting at a computer which is connected to the internet in Year 2030. After 10 seconds you will travel back to today, Year 2011.

During these 10 seconds you have the opportunity to quickly check which investment will have performed the best. So you, may look at DOW, price of gold, etc. Or look up any other information.

What would you look at?

Check out the Superbowl winners from 2011 onwards and then place bets?

Lottery numbers?

What would be the most valuable information?

Which information would make you the most $?

Consider: you go to google finance and see that DOW is at 12000 meaning it stayed flat. This took you may be four seconds to check...

MT

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dgm
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Post by dgm » Thu Aug 11, 2011 3:03 am

spend 20 years finding out what the exact best investment is that I could understand in 10 seconds. then leave myself a message at a predetermined location that i could get to in 2030.

in 2030 go to that website w/ the message to myself and read the instructions.

go back to 2010 and execute those instructions.

i imagine the msg would be something like.
"invest everything in symbol_name on X date"

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Post by nisiprius » Thu Aug 11, 2011 5:41 am

Which eye movement gesture pivots the trunk to sweep the market leaves into view? (It used to be left-flick but Webzen made so darn many UI tweaks after they acquired Microsoft).

Could you lend me a couple of bitcoins, it wants a micropayment.

Ah, the official New York Stock Exchange listing. How do you spell "Exxon Mobil" in Chinese?

Oh, look, my obituary--gotta read that first.

Could I have another ten seconds, please?
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Post by Snowjob » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:27 am

clearly lotto is the best bang for your buck.

200 million dollar powerball anyone?

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by YDNAL » Thu Aug 11, 2011 6:38 am

MekongTrader wrote:Time Machine
Assume you would be given the unique opportunity to travel to Year 2030 for 10 seconds only. Sitting at a computer which is connected to the internet in Year 2030. After 10 seconds you will travel back to today, Year 2011.

During these 10 seconds you have the opportunity to quickly check which investment will have performed the best. So you, may look at DOW, price of gold, etc. Or look up any other information.

What would you look at?
If I'm still alive (and loved ones) and healthy! Everything else is UNimportant.
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Post by SP-diceman » Thu Aug 11, 2011 7:20 am

Snowjob wrote:clearly lotto is the best bang for your buck.

200 million dollar powerball anyone?
With infaltion it would be 1 billion. :)


I would look at the market.
If its much higher I know I can go to 100% equity, load up on dips.
(and so on)

If even or lower, I know I must focus my energies in other places.
(or only buy when 30 to 50% lower than that price)

I wouldnt have the patience to wait for one lottery drawing.
(and would probably get the weeks mixed up :))


Thanks
SP-diceman

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Post by fredflinstone » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:00 am

1. google finance and check out the DJIA.
2. google "bestselling drugs" and make a note of the companies at the top of the list.

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by FredPeterson » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:09 am

MekongTrader wrote:Consider: you go to google finance and see that DOW is at 12000 meaning it stayed flat. This took you may be four seconds to check...
If this was the only thing I got to check....

Then I'd find somebody to give me a *very* long dated option on the market, something that would absolutely skyrocket from like 5c to $10 and then buy as many contracts as they were willing to sell me and I could afford. I'd take out a mortgage just to have the cash for it etc.

Start unloading near the end of 2029 (since it would take awhile to sell the contracts most likely) and be uber rich.
Last edited by FredPeterson on Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by avalpert » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:09 am

The biggest longshot winners at tracks in 2011, 12 and 13 and the lottery numbers for the week before the biggest winning jackpot between 2012 and 2015

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Post by ddb » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:16 am

10 seconds would make it kind of impossible to benefit, methinks. It would take at least that long to figure out whatever user interface exists at that time.

Assuming a minute were available, I'd definitely pull a Biff Tannen and look for the Superfecta results of the 2012 Kentucky Derby. In 2011, the Superfecta paid out $48,126 on a $2 bet. I'd come back to present day and start betting on horses regularly, so that when I do get the back win at the Derby, I could alleviate any suspicions of wrongdoing by showing that I bet often.

Then again, this might not work. If I find out the results, and then come back to present day and place a bet, then I have potentially made a change that will alter all future events, including the outcome of the race on which I'm betting.

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by Boglenaut » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:17 am

MekongTrader wrote: Sitting at a computer which is connected to the internet in Year 2030.
Computer? Internet? Will they still be around?

But the thing I like most about your scenario is I am still around!

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Post by Jfet » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:25 am

I wouldn't even need 10 seconds.

I would just ask someone if I could borrow their Iphone47 so I could check my Apple stock.

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Post by jeffyscott » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:27 am

Snowjob wrote:clearly lotto is the best bang for your buck.

200 million dollar powerball anyone?
Yes, but can you find winning numbers from 19 years ago in 10 seconds? Quick, you have 10 seconds to find winning numbers from 1992...can you do it?

Dang, all I got was an article titled "1992 Lottery Winner Kim Haggarty Teaches Figure Skating"...find her and steal her ticket?

Let me try again...got it, do I still have time to print this page?

http://www.lots0cash.com/numbers/PBresults1992.htm
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle

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Post by HomerJ » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:31 am

ddb wrote:10 seconds would make it kind of impossible to benefit, methinks. It would take at least that long to figure out whatever user interface exists at that time.
Yep, 10 seconds would be worthless. Maybe grab somebody and ask them who won last year's SuperBowl. Or who the President is.

Even a minute might not be enough time to figure out how to work a computer
Assuming a minute were available, I'd definitely pull a Biff Tannen and look for the Superfecta results of the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
+1 for the Back to the Future reference. Did you actually know Biff's last name or did you have to look it up?

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by btownguy » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:33 am

MekongTrader wrote: Consider: you go to google finance and see that DOW is at 12000 meaning it stayed flat. This took you may be four seconds to check...
I would use the remaining 6 seconds to click the "Basic Chart" link. It may still be at 12000 in 2030, but I'm guessing we've gone through a couple of business cycles between now and then. That is information I could profit from.

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Post by ipod_keith » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:36 am

dgm wrote:spend 20 years finding out what the exact best investment is that I could understand in 10 seconds. then leave myself a message at a predetermined location that i could get to in 2030.

in 2030 go to that website w/ the message to myself and read the instructions.

go back to 2010 and execute those instructions.

i imagine the msg would be something like.
"invest everything in symbol_name on X date"


Hi dgm,

It's yourself from 2030 - I forgot my boglehead logon and password.

invest everything in BOGO on 12/31/2012

Sincerely,
dgm from 2030
Last edited by ipod_keith on Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by SSSS » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:36 am

If you try this, you'll spend ten seconds regretting not having the proper implants to interface with any of the technology.

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by SP-diceman » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:43 am

MekongTrader wrote: Assume you would be given the unique opportunity to travel to Year 2030 for 10 seconds only. Sitting at a computer which is connected to the internet in Year 2030. After 10 seconds you will travel back to today, Year 2011.

Windows 25 would probably crash.
(some things just wont change)


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Post by JupiterJones » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:43 am

Assuming there were still "computers" as we know them, and assuming I could quickly comprehend the interface and use one, and assuming there was still a stock market...

My visual memory is better than my "raw data" memory. So I'd all up a graph of the S&P 500 over the next (or previous, depending on your point of view) 20 years. I'd try to remember the major peaks and valleys as best as I could.

Suddenly I'm a miracle market-timer! I'd getting out at pretty much the top and getting in at pretty much the bottom from then on.

I agree that getting a winning lottery number would be even more potentially rewarding, but I don't think I'd be able to dig up a 20-year old number in 10 seconds.

Of course, it's a moot question. As anyone who has watched enough "Twilight Zone" knows, these things never work out they way you think. (Anyone see the one where the crooks get the magic camera that takes pictures of the immediate future?)

So maybe I get back from the future with my winning stock info, and in my rush to the bank I get hit by a car and am struck with amnesia.

Or I make my big investment but lose it all, later learning that there will be no stock market in 2030, and I had accidentally called up the results of a "what if we still had a stock market" simulation.

Or while researching in the future I immediately stumble upon a headline about a guy in 2011 who was killed when a pioneering time-travel experiment went horribly wrong at the very end, and then I see my photo there in article as the 10-second clock clicks down...

JJ
Stay on target...

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by SP-diceman » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:45 am

Boglenaut wrote:
MekongTrader wrote: Sitting at a computer which is connected to the internet in Year 2030.


But the thing I like most about your scenario is I am still around!
Only with a time machine. :)

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Post by jeff mc » Thu Aug 11, 2011 8:57 am

dgm wrote:spend 20 years finding out what the exact best investment is that I could understand in 10 seconds. then leave myself a message at a predetermined location that i could get to in 2030.

in 2030 go to that website w/ the message to myself and read the instructions.

go back to 2010 and execute those instructions.

i imagine the msg would be something like.
"invest everything in symbol_name on X date"
sounds the most 'reasonable' given the unreasonable boundary conditions.

ignoring the paradoxes and alternate realities created by this unnaturally wealthy person... i'd secure a quick-to-type but cryptic domain like zxcvasdfqwer.com and put the superbowl winner for 2012 there, and then a series of stocks that performed best in 5 yr increments. the webpage would simply be:

Code: Select all

vikings
12 aapl
15 xom
20 XYZ
25 ABC
the superbowl winner, picked before the season begins, usually pays 30-to-1 (give or take preseason rankings). so, that's a good jump start on the unnatural/supernatural nest-egg.

on the page, i would also be tempted to list chronologically all of the deaths in my circles of family/friends, or maybe w/ years, too. but on second thought, that sounds like a very bad idea. would create a morbid, unnatural relationship w/ the next person on the list.
Last edited by jeff mc on Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by amp » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:05 am

Boglenaut wrote:Computer? Internet? Will they still be around?
Someone from 1992 who comes to 2011 would be frantically paging through the paper looking for the stock tables and wondering why they weren't there.

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Post by ddb » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:17 am

rrosenkoetter wrote:
ddb wrote:Assuming a minute were available, I'd definitely pull a Biff Tannen and look for the Superfecta results of the 2012 Kentucky Derby.
+1 for the Back to the Future reference. Did you actually know Biff's last name or did you have to look it up?
I most certainly did NOT have to look up his last name! Love those movies...

- DDB
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Post by JupiterJones » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:21 am

jeff mc wrote:i'd secure a quick-to-type but cryptic domain like zxcvasdfqwer.com
You'd be betting, of course, that the Internet, HTTP, and web browsers would still be around, and that browsers in 2030 could still read your 2011-era HTML code.

In the present day, I guess I could figure out how to use FTP or Finger or Telnet or some other old, pre-WWW technology that my past self might have used to leave me a prediction 20 years ago. But it would sure take me longer than 10 seconds.

Or maybe I'd find an old analog modem and dial in to a BBS (hoping I don't get a busy signal). That's probably more like what using the web-as-we-know it-today will be like in 2030. Some obsolete technology that modern hardware, software, and communications infrastructures barely even support any more.

JJ
Last edited by JupiterJones on Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:36 am, edited 2 times in total.
Stay on target...

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Post by FredPeterson » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:23 am

jeff mc wrote:
dgm wrote:spend 20 years finding out what the exact best investment is that I could understand in 10 seconds. then leave myself a message at a predetermined location that i could get to in 2030.

in 2030 go to that website w/ the message to myself and read the instructions.

go back to 2010 and execute those instructions.

i imagine the msg would be something like.
"invest everything in symbol_name on X date"
sounds the most 'reasonable' given the unreasonable boundary conditions.
This doesn't actually make sense what he says, at least in the context of the OP.

The first quote above assumes time travel back in time and when you come back to 2030 you'd instantly have all the wealth that was built up - or would you? You have no way of knowing circumstances that would occur in the intervening 20 years that may cause you to liquidate, which therefore screws with your future self coming back in time....etc

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Post by jeff mc » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:28 am

JupiterJones wrote:
jeff mc wrote:i'd secure a quick-to-type but cryptic domain like zxcvasdfqwer.com
You'd be betting, of course, that the Internet, HTTP, and web browsers would still be around, and that browsers in 2030 could still read your 2011-era HTML code.

I guess I could figure out how to use FTP or Finger or Telnet or some other old, pre-WWW technology that my past self might have used to leave me a prediction 20 years ago. But it would sure take me longer than 10 seconds.

Or maybe I'd find an old analog modem and dial in to a BBS (hoping I don't get a busy signal). That's probably more like what using the web-as-we-know it-today will be like in 2030.

JJ
well, again, to logically keep planning this gets pretty crazy and starts bordering on ridiculous. but... let's go to 2029... i'm sitting in my house made of gold, looking out onto my backyard airfield. i need to remember to redirect that old HTTP protocol website stuff to the new format. if http just doesn't exist, i'd have to buy or build a computer system with my vast wealth so that it can redirect correctly (or rebuild HTTP, or just keep funding it thru 2030)... billions of dollars used to create one successful redirect using a keyboard or other peripheral that a 2011 person would understand. or poof! the gold house vanishes, the suborbital jet fleet goes up in smoke.

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Post by jeffyscott » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:18 am

dgm wrote:go back to 2010 and execute those instructions.

i imagine the msg would be something like.
"invest everything in symbol_name on X date"
You'd have to tell yourself when to sell, also (a historical price chart would probably be the way to go. But why waste time with a stock that might not pay off for years?

I think the instructions to myself would be a list of winning powerball lottery numbers by date. This would have a much better and immediate payoff.
press on, regardless - John C. Bogle

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Post by xerty24 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 10:31 am

I'll take the 2012 start-of-year price of the S&P. I can lever way up with debt and options to make a small fortune off of this regardless of the value. Plus, I can get rich in less than 6 months :).

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Post by Manbaerpig » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:11 am

great thread:
I'd be afraid 10s wouldn't be enough for me to do anything on a PC 20 years from now.

Can I even login? Does it even have a keyboard? Speech recognition? "hello computer"

getting past the technology issues I'd probably have to ask somebody "hey who won the superbowl last year" and they'd probably be like "superbowl? what's that?"

heh

do like the idea of a time capsule or something in a predetermined location with a sweet list of actionable investments/sports bets/and dates but thats WELL outside your 10s window

for 10s I like asking the closest person to me "who won the superbowl last year", because I don't think I could figure out how to login to a PC in 20 years in 10s, and even if so, I don't think I could figure out how to get any kind of a search result in that time window not understanding the future UI. I mean I'm just thinking little things like being in some kind of shell that everyone decides to use in the future would throw me off, maybe a virtualized SaaS environment that is nothing more than a terminal, shouldnt matter much but I've only got 10s to play with, any misunderstanding means I lose

I mean just as an example take a non-professional long term PC user and ask them to use a Mac, as intuitive as that interface is, it still takes them a while

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Post by Snowjob » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:26 am

jeffyscott wrote:
Snowjob wrote:clearly lotto is the best bang for your buck.

200 million dollar powerball anyone?
Yes, but can you find winning numbers from 19 years ago in 10 seconds? Quick, you have 10 seconds to find winning numbers from 1992...can you do it?

Dang, all I got was an article titled "1992 Lottery Winner Kim Haggarty Teaches Figure Skating"...find her and steal her ticket?

Let me try again...got it, do I still have time to print this page?

http://www.lots0cash.com/numbers/PBresults1992.htm
but in the future the speed of the network combined with even better google alogrithms would make this possible !

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Post by Ben24 » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:33 am

I'd look at a chart of the s&p 500 and get the dates of major moves. Then id come back to the present and start a hedge fund.

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by Valuethinker » Thu Aug 11, 2011 11:48 am

MekongTrader wrote:Kind of stupid but can't get it out of my head.

Time Machine
Assume you would be given the unique opportunity to travel to Year 2030 for 10 seconds only. Sitting at a computer which is connected to the internet in Year 2030. After 10 seconds you will travel back to today, Year 2011.

During these 10 seconds you have the opportunity to quickly check which investment will have performed the best. So you, may look at DOW, price of gold, etc. Or look up any other information.

What would you look at?

Check out the Superbowl winners from 2011 onwards and then place bets?

Lottery numbers?

What would be the most valuable information?

Which information would make you the most $?

Consider: you go to google finance and see that DOW is at 12000 meaning it stayed flat. This took you may be four seconds to check...

MT
Alas Google went broke during the Financial Crash of 2016.

The technology was bought by the Lightstone Company, which invented the infinite storage battery.

However since they now control the internet, my intrusion was monitored and I was arrested by the Time Police for Temporal Violations.

I am now in a 'treatment centre' (they don't have prisons any more,) to be cured of my criminal tendencies: it is located somewhen in the last Ice Age, somewhere in the dry cold Savannah where the mastodons still graze in West Texas.

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Post by HomerJ » Thu Aug 11, 2011 12:09 pm

xerty24 wrote:I'll take the 2012 start-of-year price of the S&P. I can lever way up with debt and options to make a small fortune off of this regardless of the value. Plus, I can get rich in less than 6 months :).
I'd take the 2012 end-of-year price of the S&P so I can win the next Boglehead contest!

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Post by HardKnocker » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:33 pm

I'd make a copy of Jim Cramer's latest column. :lol:
“Gold gets dug out of the ground, then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”--Warren Buffett

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Post by letsgobobby » Thu Aug 11, 2011 1:34 pm

I would look up an estimate of global GDP for that year. It would be helpful to know if the global growth story was imperiled between now and then, or not.

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Post by Dan Moroboshi » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:19 pm

Image

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Post by BTDT » Thu Aug 11, 2011 7:49 pm

I'd call myself using Google voice. If number is disconnected I would review my present spending plan :beer
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Post by supergrouper » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:02 pm

If asked the same question in 1981 what would you have done?

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Post by Boglenaut » Thu Aug 11, 2011 9:08 pm

supergrouper wrote:If asked the same question in 1981 what would you have done?
Asked "What's the internet?"

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Re: Time Machine - Travel to Year 2030

Post by Valuethinker » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:41 am

MekongTrader wrote:Kind of stupid but can't get it out of my head.

Time Machine
...
Consider: you go to google finance and see that DOW is at 12000 meaning it stayed flat. This took you may be four seconds to check...

MT
This is of course an old radio serial story....

and the answer is, the guy takes home a Wall Street Journal with next year's stock prices and makes his stock bets...

the last thing he reads though, in the paper, is his own obituary.

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Post by MekongTrader » Fri Aug 12, 2011 5:10 am

Well, I guess the easiest and safest would be to get a list of superbowl winners 2012 to 2029 and place your bets accordingly.

But if you keep on winning year after year they'd get suspicious and you may end up in jail!

Not easy, is it?
MT

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Post by whiskers » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:16 am

All right, so it's a hypothetical exercise and let's assume that I do indeed have 10 seconds and no more.
The scenario depends on what your goal is. Here's one possibility, this doesn't necessarily guarantee a payout right away - look up the most successful/valuable companies, big names that are easily recognized. For example, Fortune provides a list.
Today, that'd be Google, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway. Then, you could just invest in those.

For a quick payout, lottery numbers, but I'm not sure you could find those in 10 seconds. Although in 2030, who knows.

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Post by nisiprius » Fri Aug 12, 2011 7:28 am

jeff mc wrote: i'm sitting in my house made of gold...
The thermal inertia really cuts down on heating and cooling costs, but doesn't it interfere with your cell phone signal? I prefer houses made of caviar, myself.
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.

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Post by Random Musings » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:36 pm

Besides the lotto, I'll check the sports section and see if the Pittsburgh Pirates had a winning season yet.

RM

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