Planning to go 100% long stocks today

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john94549
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Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:50 pm

Post by john94549 » Tue Aug 09, 2011 1:41 pm

SVariance1 wrote:
john94549 wrote:Today is an excellent example of why nobody can "time" Mr. Market. Equities might be a screaming buy, or not. Just wait 30 minutes.

CDs be lookin' better and better, doncha think? Look at the bright side. If you're posting, you obviously have enough money to (a) afford a computer, and (b) pay for an internet connection. On second thought, you might be in a Starbucks, so (b) might not necessarily be correct. But at least you have the money for the coffee.
It was good while it lasted, the gains are gone. May be the Fed will say something nice and spark the market
If you can laugh at Mr. Market's gyrations (I think "choppy market" is an understatement), you know you have what Larry S. would deem an appropriate allocation. Having 15 years' worth of retirement expenses in FDIC- and/or NCUA-insured CDs (with none over the $250K limit) helps.

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MekongTrader
Posts: 357
Joined: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:33 am
Location: On the banks of the Mekong

Post by MekongTrader » Tue Aug 09, 2011 8:11 pm

Boglenaut wrote:Mekong Trader, I see you have a new icon...what's rhe significance of it?
Boglenaut,
it's the insignia of MACV (Military Assistance Command Vietnam) headquartered in Saigon.
MT

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LH
Posts: 5490
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2007 2:54 am

Re: Planning to go 100% long stocks today

Post by LH » Wed Aug 10, 2011 1:07 am

cosmic wrote:I admit this is blatant market timing, but blue chip stocks look to be attractively value on a price to earnings and dividend yield basis, relative to Treasury and AAA bond yields (or cash). So, I am going to sell all my bonds and go 100% long stocks in the first hour when markets open, then hang on regardless.

Of course, I may be totally off on the timing and markets could fall another 10, 20 or 30%, like in 2008. In which case I will simply sit and reinvest my dividends until the next bull market brings prices back up to something approximating reasonable value.

I am willing to accept the risk, in pursuit of what look to be attractive relative returns. Anyone planing to do the same?
Hey, I do not advocate doing this, but this is kinda cool hard call. Not the usual after the fact selection bias report.

But then of course, you are gonna time again going forward wont you? I mean, your brain will feel its time to make some move according to whatever nuerohormonal mix you have going on internally at the time, and what near infinitesimally small slice (relative to the market aggregate) of information you have in front of your puny (since its human, not you personally) couple clicks above an simian brain at the time...

You will expectantly fail doing this timing long term.

But kudos for the hard call, refreshing.

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