U.S. stocks in freefall

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:48 pm

IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm
As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?
No need to follow the market on a daily basis. Find something better to do with your time. You and your portfolio will almost certainly be the better for it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GoldenFinch » Tue Oct 23, 2018 7:00 pm

IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm
As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?
It’s a good idea to look at long term charts of the S&P (like 90 years, 40 years, 20 years) so you remember that although there is volatility, the general trend is up. Volatility is an accumulator’s friend (nice buying opportunities). If you have automated your investments, you don’t need to watch the stock market daily.

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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by corn18 » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm

I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value (see footnote). This is what the data predict the market will do over the next millennia:

Image

footnote:

Image

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:05 pm

Thanks! That confirms what I figured out yesterday :happy

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IcedDog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by IcedDog » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:06 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:48 pm
IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm
As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?
No need to follow the market on a daily basis. Find something better to do with your time. You and your portfolio will almost certainly be the better for it.
Yep, I've been following the market lately out of general interest and curiosity, as I'm not an active trader and never have been, just index funds in a couple IRAs. It's almost like a drama, with plots and subplots...I will say though, I've wondered at times if it's unhealthy :mrgreen: It has been enlightening in certain respects, though I imagine I'll grow bored with it eventually and pay less frequent attention. Till then, I'll grab some more popcorn and enjoy the show :beer

motorcyclesarecool
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by motorcyclesarecool » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:10 pm

With Vanguard now having free ETF trading, I just tax loss harvested from VTI to ITOT. Maybe I’ll go to VOO or SPY tomorrow. Wahoo!
Understand that choosing an HDHP is very much a "red pill" approach. Most would rather pay higher premiums for a $20 copay per visit. They will think you weird for choosing an HSA.

ausmatt
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ausmatt » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:12 pm

motorcyclesarecool wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:10 pm
With Vanguard now having free ETF trading, I just tax loss harvested from VTI to ITOT. Maybe I’ll go to VOO or SPY tomorrow. Wahoo!
I did the same thing about 10:30 am from ITOT >> SCHB. Great day to TLH to offset some ST gains in other accounts.

TLH done. Now stay the course until the next TLH or rebalance.

brokenrecord
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by brokenrecord » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:30 pm

bligh wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:53 am
RetireBy55 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:44 am
flyingaway wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:18 am
When the market was up a few weeks ago, you could hardly find a reason how it could be down.
When the market is down like today, you could not hard find a reason how it should be up. There are lots of reasons it should go down, as you listed, plus the trade issues.
Actually, I was questioning why any of the listed "reasons" would impact us one iota:

- Saudia Arabia - questions around the death of a journalist have NOTHING to do with our markets. Should have zero effect.

- Italy - ditto. Long way from the US. If Italian yields fall OR rise, I don't see any correlation to our markets.

- 76% of S&P companies BEATING earnings so far this quarter - market should be WAY UP, not down. (Instead, market freaks out because TWO WHOLE COMPANIES - CAT and 3M came up a tiny bit short. Yipee. In the meantime, the other 76% of companies that have announced BEAT earnings).

- Fed Rates - who cares? We've known for a year know. There is no surprise whatsoever. ie - the market should not react one iota to what's been known for over a year.

Seems every day the talking heads / financial press are spewing out new "reasons" for the drop - all of which IMHO are pure BS. Every reason I've heard so far does not hold a drop of credibility and flies in the face of any rational thought / common sense. It's literally like they are making up things at this point - perhaps to further scare the sheep. One can reasonably wonder why. I have my theories, but since we can't discuss politics here will just leave it at that.
Stock prices are forward looking.

- Saudia Arabia = Concerns over instability in the middle east = Oil price rises = Inflation
- Italy - If Italy leaves the Euro area, the EU and the Euro itself could falter. EU makes up a big chunk of world economy and this could cascade through the economic system
- Agreed.
- Agreed.

- The biggest concern in my opinion is a trade war with China. Up until now the market may have been thinking "Maybe it will happen maybe it wont, maybe it is just bluster, maybe China will cave, etc." and now the market may be switching to a "The trade war is here, it is inevitable, it is happening, and we dont actually fully know how bad it is going to get and how it will impact us".

The uncertainty and concern is enough for some to reduce their risk.
Are the US equities markets really that macro? Tariff talk shouldn't swing the market like this until it hits corporate profits.

OTOH, high Shiller PE might be causing some reversion to the mean.

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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:52 pm

IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:06 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:48 pm
IcedDog wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:24 pm
As someone who has only been following the stock market on a daily basis since August, is the volatility seen this year typical, or are the up & down swings usually more gradual?
No need to follow the market on a daily basis. Find something better to do with your time. You and your portfolio will almost certainly be the better for it.
Yep, I've been following the market lately out of general interest and curiosity, as I'm not an active trader and never have been, just index funds in a couple IRAs. It's almost like a drama, with plots and subplots...I will say though, I've wondered at times if it's unhealthy :mrgreen: It has been enlightening in certain respects, though I imagine I'll grow bored with it eventually and pay less frequent attention. Till then, I'll grab some more popcorn and enjoy the show :beer
Sounds good, but be advised that it can be very seductive. (Don't ask me how I know.) If you find yourself thinking that you have become smarter than the guys who make a good living trading the market, seek professional help immediately :wink:

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IcedDog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by IcedDog » Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:16 pm

:D Duly noted :sharebeer

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:13 pm

Engineer250 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again.
Love it. Have read articles complaining millennials are less likely to buy homes due to student loans. Just saw one yesterday that said they are less likely to start businesses as well. Combo that with what you talked about...well I don’t know.

I do know I’m investing less than I could be as a result of my spouse’s student loans. If the market can stay flat for a while I won’t feel so bad about it. If it goes up or down, oh well.
I will go one step further. Pretty much the answer to any business problem nowadays is fivefold: you lay off employees, you bring in the contractors, you offshore work overseas, you outsource, or you bring in expensive consultants. That's it. That is all the modern manager in American business knows how to do. The goal of maximizing shareholder value at all costs has created companies that are literal shells of what they used to be. Hollowed out companies. The people who knew how to solve actual problems were laid off five years ago.

I don't know, I am being a real smart aleck here, but I think I am going to apply for a three month mortgage at the bank. That is about as long as many contractor jobs. Or a variable payment mortgage that flexes with the amount of money I bring in. Hard to count on steady hours anymore as management is so obsessed with flexing the workforce. It seems that management has shorter and shorter attention spans and they look ahead only about three months, if that.
A fool and his money are good for business.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:11 am

corn18 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm
I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value (see footnote). This is what the data predict the market will do over the next millennia:

Image

footnote:

Image
Pssh. You think the market hasn't already priced the next millennia in?

:P

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by epilnk » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:28 am

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:55 am
Rebalance, DCA.
No need. My portfolio rebalanced itself today, and saved me the trouble. Sweet.

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GeneralPerson
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by GeneralPerson » Wed Oct 24, 2018 5:27 am

So, you fed your machine future data to get future data? :happy
corn18 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm
I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value (see footnote). This is what the data predict the market will do over the next millennia:

Image

footnote:

Image

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Psyayeayeduck » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:00 am

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:51 am
Think of it as a time machine. The S&P 500 is now back to about May 2018.
+1

It's a great way to look at it though the pessimist in me would put the date back to Jan 2018 since we crossed this S&P 500 threshold multiple times in 2018.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by davidsorensen32 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:31 am

Deuppivate
Last edited by davidsorensen32 on Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by davidsorensen32 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 8:31 am

+10000000009

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:13 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will h
I will go one step further. Pretty much the answer to any business problem nowadays is fivefold: you lay off employees, you bring in the contractors, you offshore work overseas, you outsource, or you bring in expensive consultants. That's it. That is all the modern manager in American business knows how to do. The goal of maximizing shareholder value at all costs has created companies that are literal shells of what they used to be. Hollowed out companies. The people who knew how to solve actual problems were laid off five years ago.

I don't know, I am being a real smart aleck here, but I think I am going to apply for a three month mortgage at the bank. That is about as long as many contractor jobs. Or a variable payment mortgage that flexes with the amount of money I bring in. Hard to count on steady hours anymore as management is so obsessed with flexing the workforce. It seems that management has shorter and shorter attention spans and they look ahead only about three months, if that.

carofe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by carofe » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:08 am

nedsaid wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:13 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again.
Love it. Have read articles complaining millennials are less likely to buy homes due to student loans. Just saw one yesterday that said they are less likely to start businesses as well. Combo that with what you talked about...well I don’t know.

I do know I’m investing less than I could be as a result of my spouse’s student loans. If the market can stay flat for a while I won’t feel so bad about it. If it goes up or down, oh well.
I will go one step further. Pretty much the answer to any business problem nowadays is fivefold: you lay off employees, you bring in the contractors, you offshore work overseas, you outsource, or you bring in expensive consultants. That's it. That is all the modern manager in American business knows how to do. The goal of maximizing shareholder value at all costs has created companies that are literal shells of what they used to be. Hollowed out companies. The people who knew how to solve actual problems were laid off five years ago.

I don't know, I am being a real smart aleck here, but I think I am going to apply for a three month mortgage at the bank. That is about as long as many contractor jobs. Or a variable payment mortgage that flexes with the amount of money I bring in. Hard to count on steady hours anymore as management is so obsessed with flexing the workforce. It seems that management has shorter and shorter attention spans and they look ahead only about three months, if that.
You don’t have another option but to become one of them... a manager :/
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by hdas » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:19 am

Seasonality (data-mining) porn du jour:

Image

Source: http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/17922 ... tober-with

2pedals
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2pedals » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:31 am

corn18 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm
I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value .....
Are you sure this in not the fragmentation, accumulation and projection of particles from the massive explosion after the use of such weaponry?

Silk McCue
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Silk McCue » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:38 am

2pedals wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:31 am
corn18 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm
I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value .....
Are you sure this in not the fragmentation, accumulation and projection of particles from the massive explosion after the use of such weaponry?
As long as it supports my investing strategy based upon random web site searches, television ads and trending headlines meant to grab readers attention and sell add revenue then I wholeheartedly embrace it.

Cheers

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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nedsaid » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:05 am

carofe wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:08 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:13 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again.
Love it. Have read articles complaining millennials are less likely to buy homes due to student loans. Just saw one yesterday that said they are less likely to start businesses as well. Combo that with what you talked about...well I don’t know.

I do know I’m investing less than I could be as a result of my spouse’s student loans. If the market can stay flat for a while I won’t feel so bad about it. If it goes up or down, oh well.
I will go one step further. Pretty much the answer to any business problem nowadays is fivefold: you lay off employees, you bring in the contractors, you offshore work overseas, you outsource, or you bring in expensive consultants. That's it. That is all the modern manager in American business knows how to do. The goal of maximizing shareholder value at all costs has created companies that are literal shells of what they used to be. Hollowed out companies. The people who knew how to solve actual problems were laid off five years ago.

I don't know, I am being a real smart aleck here, but I think I am going to apply for a three month mortgage at the bank. That is about as long as many contractor jobs. Or a variable payment mortgage that flexes with the amount of money I bring in. Hard to count on steady hours anymore as management is so obsessed with flexing the workforce. It seems that management has shorter and shorter attention spans and they look ahead only about three months, if that.
You don’t have another option but to become one of them... a manager :/
Well, I am being a bit smart alecky here but I am making a point that something is wrong in American business. There is just too much of a short term thinking. From time to time, you see CEOs coming on Nightly Business Report and complaining about the lack of skilled workers. First, companies won't train anymore. One reason is that employers are concerned that people will leave once trained. But again, it was management that listened to consultants and did away with loyalty, emphasizing consultants, contractors, and temps over loyal employees. No wonder employees feel no sense of loyalty.

Also, the job search process is frustrating for job seekers, in the process you just get ghosted. Even a finalist may not hear from a company if he is not selected. The message has gone out that jobseekers are just not valued, seekers feel like a thief trying to break into a company, so much screening now even for temp jobs.

How does this affect US companies? You need loyal employees to ferociously guard your company against such things as hacking and outright theft of intellectual property. Employees willing to go the extra mile when the chips are down. Employees who are knowledgeable and who have the authority to solve customer problems. A big problem is that fewer people care about the company anymore as everyone realizes they could be next for a lay-off. The minute they can get someone to do your job a little better and a little cheaper, you are gone.

I think of Jack Welch. He started a program where GE would get rid of their bottom 10% of employees every year. Sounds smart. Actually, not a bad idea to subtlely let go of your worst employees over time. But when you set a percentage as a goal and you do this year after year, the effect on morale can be devastating. I wonder if GE essentially hollowed itself out over the years. Probably, they lost not only their worst employees but many of their best left as well. I would like former GE employees to comment on this to see if I am right about this.

I am not arguing for lifetime employment. Companies should be able to flex their workforce according to their needs. But I think this has gone too far. Business fluctuates and that is a fact of life. Employees shouldn't be fearing for their jobs all the time.
Last edited by nedsaid on Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
A fool and his money are good for business.

yousha
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by yousha » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:13 am

A major correction is at hand!

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:18 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:05 am
Well, I am being a bit smart alecky here but I am making a point that something is wrong in American business. There is just too much of a short term thinking.
That's been a problem for decades. It's the 'we've got to beat last quarter's results' mentality. Few businesses are long-term oriented. But I suspect that that's always been the case, more or less.
nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:05 am
No wonder employees feel no sense of loyalty.
In general, I think that most employees are as loyal to their organization as the organization is to them. But there are exceptions. My father gave his employer about six months notice that he would be retiring (he's in a 'professional' position where the risk of early termination due to this is zero) so that they could hire and train a new person for the position, which could easily take that period of time. They rewarded him by moving him from the higher paying night shifts that he had been working for over 30 years to day shifts, where he earns less money and enjoys the work less. :annoyed

Sadly, the overwhelming majority of organizations I've seen have very little real loyalty to their employees (i.e. they do what is in the interest of the organization over their employees nearly all the time).
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:31 am

Silk McCue wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:38 am
2pedals wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:31 am
corn18 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm
I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value .....
Are you sure this in not the fragmentation, accumulation and projection of particles from the massive explosion after the use of such weaponry?
As long as it supports my investing strategy based upon random web site searches, television ads and trending headlines meant to grab readers attention and sell add revenue then I wholeheartedly embrace it.

Cheers
But string theory is so bogus :wink:
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:34 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:05 am


I think of Jack Welch. He started a program where GE would get rid of their bottom 10% of employees every year. Sounds smart. Actually, not a bad idea to subtlely let go of your worst employees over time. But when you set a percentage as a goal and you do this year after year, the effect on morale can be devastating. I wonder if GE essentially hollowed itself out over the years. Probably, they lost not only their worst employees but many of their best left as well. I would like former GE employees to comment on this to see if I am right about this.

I think at the bottom of it is a deficit of trust. High performing employees don't actually want to work with low-performing employees. It's like the poor kid in science class who has to do all the work for his lazy lab partners. But the problem is when nobody trusts that management can effectively identify who those bottom performers are. Either they rely on some contrived metric the employee may have little control over, or they rely on subjective measures that end up mostly a measure of whether the people evaluating you like you personally. On top of that, if you cull 10% every year, you end up being required to go beyond the slackers and low-performers. Finally, employees are not fungible and fill specific roles. I am one of two people in my company with my job description, education, and training- it's impossible to directly compare my performance with someone filling a different role who cannot be assigned to my role. Thus "rank and yank" is a recipe for low morale and high turnover. I don't think all companies suffer from this mentality, but undue emphasis on rewarding high performers while punishing low performers rather than building a team is pervasive.

All that being said, I don't think these problems are responsible for the late vicissitudes of the market. It's more of a quality of life issue.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by prudent » Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:37 am

To keep this thread from being locked, please keep replies focused on the topic.

carofe
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by carofe » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:23 am

nedsaid wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 10:05 am
carofe wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:08 am
nedsaid wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:13 pm
Engineer250 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:56 pm
nedsaid wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:21 am
I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famously said, "Employees are our most valuable asset, lay some off and the stock price goes up." At some point, even this strategy will exhaust as many US companies operate with essentially skeleton crews. At some point, business schools will have to start teaching about how to grow business again.
Love it. Have read articles complaining millennials are less likely to buy homes due to student loans. Just saw one yesterday that said they are less likely to start businesses as well. Combo that with what you talked about...well I don’t know.

I do know I’m investing less than I could be as a result of my spouse’s student loans. If the market can stay flat for a while I won’t feel so bad about it. If it goes up or down, oh well.
I will go one step further. Pretty much the answer to any business problem nowadays is fivefold: you lay off employees, you bring in the contractors, you offshore work overseas, you outsource, or you bring in expensive consultants. That's it. That is all the modern manager in American business knows how to do. The goal of maximizing shareholder value at all costs has created companies that are literal shells of what they used to be. Hollowed out companies. The people who knew how to solve actual problems were laid off five years ago.

I don't know, I am being a real smart aleck here, but I think I am going to apply for a three month mortgage at the bank. That is about as long as many contractor jobs. Or a variable payment mortgage that flexes with the amount of money I bring in. Hard to count on steady hours anymore as management is so obsessed with flexing the workforce. It seems that management has shorter and shorter attention spans and they look ahead only about three months, if that.
You don’t have another option but to become one of them... a manager :/
Well, I am being a bit smart alecky here but I am making a point that something is wrong in American business. There is just too much of a short term thinking. From time to time, you see CEOs coming on Nightly Business Report and complaining about the lack of skilled workers. First, companies won't train anymore. One reason is that employers are concerned that people will leave once trained. But again, it was management that listened to consultants and did away with loyalty, emphasizing consultants, contractors, and temps over loyal employees. No wonder employees feel no sense of loyalty.

Also, the job search process is frustrating for job seekers, in the process you just get ghosted. Even a finalist may not hear from a company if he is not selected. The message has gone out that jobseekers are just not valued, seekers feel like a thief trying to break into a company, so much screening now even for temp jobs.

How does this affect US companies? You need loyal employees to ferociously guard your company against such things as hacking and outright theft of intellectual property. Employees willing to go the extra mile when the chips are down. Employees who are knowledgeable and who have the authority to solve customer problems. A big problem is that fewer people care about the company anymore as everyone realizes they could be next for a lay-off. The minute they can get someone to do your job a little better and a little cheaper, you are gone.

I think of Jack Welch. He started a program where GE would get rid of their bottom 10% of employees every year. Sounds smart. Actually, not a bad idea to subtlely let go of your worst employees over time. But when you set a percentage as a goal and you do this year after year, the effect on morale can be devastating. I wonder if GE essentially hollowed itself out over the years. Probably, they lost not only their worst employees but many of their best left as well. I would like former GE employees to comment on this to see if I am right about this.

I am not arguing for lifetime employment. Companies should be able to flex their workforce according to their needs. But I think this has gone too far. Business fluctuates and that is a fact of life. Employees shouldn't be fearing for their jobs all the time.
Your comments remind me of the Jack Bogle book "Don't Count On It!".
You can still see that not everything is lost if you work for a startup or small company, or a mid-size one that aspires to still operate as a small one.
When the company is big, or management aspired to operate like a big corp, then things just go down the hill because of the over-focus in numbers.
In fact, that's pretty much the topic of the book "Don't Count On it", over-focus in numbers and their manipulation by management.
I haven't worked for Big Corps in years. I can't see myself there anymore.
US Total Stock Market + Intermediate Term Bond. That's it.

gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gilgamesh » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:32 am

Delete
Last edited by gilgamesh on Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.

dziuniek
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dziuniek » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:32 am

I think the weakness in housing that we see in today's report is just the beginning.

Housing coming down combined with this volatility (yes, we've been spoiled for a good bit) will give a lot of folks PTSD. Atleast those who've been around for the 2008/2009 saga.

If not, back up the truck, everything's on sale!

gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gilgamesh » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:33 am

delete

WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima » Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:57 am

I will pay attention to new housing start, auto sales and interest rate. Things going up must fall down.

gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:56 pm

dziuniek wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:32 am
If not, back up the truck, everything's on sale!
So right now we are down about 6%-7% from the peak, suppose it goes down another 6%-to7%? Is that really a sale? I can't remember the last time I backed up the truck for a 15% off sale. Would a 40%-off sale do it? probably, but I suspect it will not happen, due to the buy on the dips mentality being so ingrained. But, yes, with a any kind of decent "correction" -- maybe 10%? I guess I would allocate more to equities. But not that much more...

FootballFan5548
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by FootballFan5548 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:28 pm

Tax loss harvesting "DIA" (SPDR Dow ETF) to buy "SPY" (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) should not trigger a wash sale right?

They track two different indexes, so I believe I should be safe?

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:44 pm

FootballFan5548 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:28 pm
Tax loss harvesting "DIA" (SPDR Dow ETF) to buy "SPY" (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) should not trigger a wash sale right?

They track two different indexes, so I believe I should be safe?
Correct. Also have VTI I believe and VV.

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loves2read
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by loves2read » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:03 pm

And I guess for some people w/new tax rates, this "free fall" is a Roth conversation opportunity

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:07 pm

I'm out until DOW drops to 16,000.

Short-term treasuries are the place to be.
Funding secured

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Sheepdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Sheepdog » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:09 pm

delete
Last edited by Sheepdog on Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's not what you gather, but what you scatter which tells what kind of life you have lived---Helen Walton

alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:09 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:07 pm
I'm out until DOW drops to 16,000.

Short-term treasuries are the place to be.
You may be waiting for Godot. What happens if it's 2020 and the Dow is still nowhere near 16,000?

BW1985
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by BW1985 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:13 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:07 pm
I'm out until DOW drops to 16,000.

Short-term treasuries are the place to be.
Mmm that may not ever come..
"Squirrels figured out how to save eons ago. They buried acorns. Some, they dug up, for food. Others, they let to sprout, in new oak trees. We could learn from squirrels." -john94549

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Earl Lemongrab
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:15 pm

FootballFan5548 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:28 pm
Tax loss harvesting "DIA" (SPDR Dow ETF) to buy "SPY" (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) should not trigger a wash sale right?

They track two different indexes, so I believe I should be safe?
No one really knows. We all have opinions. Absent guidance from the IRS or at least verified decisions on their part (which seem to be essentially nonexistent) that's all you can do. The "different index" is a popular criterion.
This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

dziuniek
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dziuniek » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:36 pm

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:56 pm
dziuniek wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:32 am
If not, back up the truck, everything's on sale!
So right now we are down about 6%-7% from the peak, suppose it goes down another 6%-to7%? Is that really a sale? I can't remember the last time I backed up the truck for a 15% off sale. Would a 40%-off sale do it? probably, but I suspect it will not happen, due to the buy on the dips mentality being so ingrained. But, yes, with a any kind of decent "correction" -- maybe 10%? I guess I would allocate more to equities. But not that much more...
Of course it is. It's another sale.

Accumulators rejoice. Decumulators, good time to check if your AA lets you SWAN.

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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:00 pm

A bona fide RBD for the S&P 500. :twisted:
Last edited by oldzey on Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gmaynardkrebs » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:10 pm

dziuniek wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:36 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:56 pm
dziuniek wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:32 am
If not, back up the truck, everything's on sale!
So right now we are down about 6%-7% from the peak, suppose it goes down another 6%-to7%? Is that really a sale? I can't remember the last time I backed up the truck for a 15% off sale. Would a 40%-off sale do it? probably, but I suspect it will not happen, due to the buy on the dips mentality being so ingrained. But, yes, with a any kind of decent "correction" -- maybe 10%? I guess I would allocate more to equities. But not that much more...
Of course it is. It's another sale.

Accumulators rejoice. Decumulators, good time to check if your AA lets you SWAN.
I guess you are right, but maybe I'm just not ready to jump in yet.

azanon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by azanon » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:12 pm

Nasdaq dropped 4.32%, wow. I see peeps were really clicking that sell button the last 15 minutes or so.....

robertmcd
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by robertmcd » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:12 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:07 pm
I'm out until DOW drops to 16,000.

Short-term treasuries are the place to be.
Time to invest in 2 yr treasury futures with 10x leverage.

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parsi1
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by parsi1 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:13 pm

corn18 wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:00 pm
I ran all of the historical and future data through my Illudium Q-36 Explosive Space Modulator using the latest string theory to unify growth and value (see footnote). This is what the data predict the market will do over the next millennia:

Image

footnote:

Image

Based on this the market should be up today but it is down. There is a flaw in your formulation, feed it more future data and reformulate.

jebmke
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by jebmke » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:18 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:07 pm
I'm out until DOW drops to 16,000.

Short-term treasuries are the place to be.
That has been my guess at the bottom of the next major correction but I'm not out. But I will re-balance in more at some point. But the Total Stock Market is still up from a year ago so we have a long way down before I hit a re-balance band.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:28 pm

RELAX! This is only a test of your risk-tolerance level....THIS IS ONLY A TEST. Now, back to our regular programming...
May you have the hindsight to know where you've been, The foresight to know where you're going, And the insight to know when you've gone too far. ~ Irish Blessing

gilgamesh
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by gilgamesh » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:35 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:07 pm
I'm out until DOW drops to 16,000.

Short-term treasuries are the place to be.
Did you have a certain sell point previously, or did the recent events side swipe you and you had to Act?

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