U.S. stocks in freefall

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blackcat allie
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by blackcat allie » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:49 pm

cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:39 pm
Say what? People posting their investment statements on Facebook and Twitter? The good thing, I do no Facebook, I do no Twitter (no accounts), just like the 7-UP "never had it, never will." Big Bro is watching you, careful out there, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
Actually it takes bravery to post here as well, methinks

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:53 pm

munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:43 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:17 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:04 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:00 pm
My long term AA would be 80/20. But now, I am 50/50.
Heh. Haven't you read yet that market-timing is difficult?

My long-term AA is 50/50. And I'm 50/50.
Same here. Was 100% stock until about five years ago, went to 60/40 at that point, then to 50/50 at retirement (January of last year), am still at 50/50 with no plans to change. That AA fits our need and ability to take risk, so we’re good to go.
You guys sound a lot like market timers.
Nope. Not trying to time the market, just adjusting my AA based on changed life circumstance (i.e. approaching / entering retirement). That's no different than what any target date fund does.
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:53 pm

Black Cat wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:49 pm
cfs wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:39 pm
Say what? People posting their investment statements on Facebook and Twitter? The good thing, I do no Facebook, I do no Twitter (no accounts), just like the 7-UP "never had it, never will." Big Bro is watching you, careful out there, y gracias por leer ~cfs~
Actually it takes bravery to post here as well, methinks
Concur, but I don't see anyone posting their actual statements . . . did I miss something? Gracias por leer / cfs
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

Jon H
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jon H » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:40 am

Boom Bust Boom

Interesting documentary on how markets boom, form bubbles, and then bust and how it happens over and over again. It's relevant to the current market conditions.
Consider gain and loss, but never be greedy and everything will be alright (fortune cookie)

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:13 am

munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:43 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:17 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:04 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:00 pm
My long term AA would be 80/20. But now, I am 50/50.
Heh. Haven't you read yet that market-timing is difficult?

My long-term AA is 50/50. And I'm 50/50.
Same here. Was 100% stock until about five years ago, went to 60/40 at that point, then to 50/50 at retirement (January of last year), am still at 50/50 with no plans to change. That AA fits our need and ability to take risk, so we’re good to go.
You guys sound a lot like market timers.
I don’t think reducing risk and sticking with that choice as retirement approaches is anything like market timing.

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:03 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:13 am
munemaker wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:43 pm
oldcomputerguy wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:17 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:04 pm
WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:00 pm
My long term AA would be 80/20. But now, I am 50/50.
Heh. Haven't you read yet that market-timing is difficult?

My long-term AA is 50/50. And I'm 50/50.
Same here. Was 100% stock until about five years ago, went to 60/40 at that point, then to 50/50 at retirement (January of last year), am still at 50/50 with no plans to change. That AA fits our need and ability to take risk, so we’re good to go.
You guys sound a lot like market timers.
I don’t think reducing risk and sticking with that choice as retirement approaches is anything like market timing.
Correct. Changing asset allocation because of a substantial change in personal circumstances (E.g. marriage, birth of children, receipt of windfall, sale of business or other asset, retirement) is not market timing at all.

Those sorts of substantial changes in personal circumstances can change the investor's ability, willingness and need to take risk.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:08 am

Excuses excuses excuses. . . Today the excuse is Facebook. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs

p.s. One T-tweet away from getting the mother of all excuses!
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:14 am

This drop is great for me! I did a 401k to IRA transfer last week and am buying at the close of business today. If today's drop holds, I'll be at least 2% in the black as a result of the buy/sell timing. :D
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by pokebowl » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:38 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:14 am
This drop is great for me! I did a 401k to IRA transfer last week and am buying at the close of business today. If today's drop holds, I'll be at least 2% in the black as a result of the buy/sell timing. :D
Found the catalyst for today's events. Just need to write a MarketWatch article on you, and it becomes a solidified fact.
There is nothing more expensive than something offered for free.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:51 am

Yeah - that sure makes sense..Facebook drops for reasons supposedly related to data mining for political purposes, and the entire market tanks.

Seems every day there is a new excuse. As someone looking to retire this year, I'm wishing I had dialed back my equity position even further than my roughly 25% I currently have. (I know - that seems piddly but when you're dealing with fairly big numbers, 25% equity getting hammered can be a real kick in the...). We're 54 and 60 and not in great health, so I do not want to go through 2008 again as I'm not sure we have enough runway to recover this time..

ETA: Frequent 250+ point drops on the Dow lately are sure beginning to look like the beginning of a long bear to me.

Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Independent George » Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:59 am

Everyone, I take full responsibility for 2018's volatility.

You see, on Jan 2, I made a lump sum contribution to my Roth IRA instead of continuing to DCA like I had for the previous ten years. Clearly, the volatility is because the market hates me on a deep and personal level, and decided it was time to **** with me.

I am also now in my 40s, and plan to increase my bond allocation. This might be a good time to go 100% stock.

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:00 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:51 am
Yeah - that sure makes sense..Facebook drops for reasons supposedly related to data mining for political purposes, and the entire market tanks.

Seems every day there is a new excuse. As someone looking to retire this year, I'm wishing I had dialed back my equity position even further than my roughly 25% I currently have. (I know - that seems piddly but when you're dealing with fairly big numbers, 25% equity getting hammered can be a real kick in the...). We're 54 and 60 and not in great health, so I do not want to go through 2008 again as I'm not sure we have enough runway to recover this time..

ETA: Frequent 250+ point drops on the Dow lately are sure beginning to look like the beginning of a long bear to me.
Actually, the 2008-2009 debacle, while certainly tumultuous and gut wrenching for many, turned out to be just fine for retirees because the rebound was fast and the long bull market gave them a big boost. Consequently, had the '4% rule' been used with a 25/75 portfolio from 2008 until now, the inflation-adjusted net return after withdrawals would have been -.6% annually, whereas the same with a 50/50 portfolio would have resulted in a .7% inflation-adjusted return.

But the next decade could look like 2000-2009, where bonds beat stocks. Given the rising rate environment we're in now though, I doubt that that will happen. I anticipate that we'll see low returns across the board, maybe 5-6% (nominal) for stocks and 3% for bonds.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:02 am

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:51 am
Yeah - that sure makes sense..Facebook drops for reasons supposedly related to data mining for political purposes, and the entire market tanks.

Seems every day there is a new excuse. As someone looking to retire this year, I'm wishing I had dialed back my equity position even further than my roughly 25% I currently have. (I know - that seems piddly but when you're dealing with fairly big numbers, 25% equity getting hammered can be a real kick in the...). We're 54 and 60 and not in great health, so I do not want to go through 2008 again as I'm not sure we have enough runway to recover this time..

ETA: Frequent 250+ point drops on the Dow lately are sure beginning to look like the beginning of a long bear to me.
250 points is less than 1%. Seems normal to me. I also do f think it’s crazy to think a major component of the Nasdaq dropping 8% would reduce the index enough to trigger some sells and a broad drop. Again though, in the grand scheme of things today seems normal to me.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:16 am

Independent George wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:59 am
Everyone, I take full responsibility for 2018's volatility.

You see, on Jan 2, I made a lump sum contribution to my Roth IRA instead of continuing to DCA like I had for the previous ten years. Clearly, the volatility is because the market hates me on a deep and personal level, and decided it was time to **** with me.

I am also now in my 40s,
The market may also be discriminating against you on account of your age. You might consider filing a complaint.

:!:

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:07 pm

To anyone who wants to sell, I'm buying :beer

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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:48 pm

RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:51 am
Yeah - that sure makes sense..Facebook drops for reasons supposedly related to data mining for political purposes, and the entire market tanks.

Seems every day there is a new excuse. As someone looking to retire this year, I'm wishing I had dialed back my equity position even further than my roughly 25% I currently have. (I know - that seems piddly but when you're dealing with fairly big numbers, 25% equity getting hammered can be a real kick in the...). We're 54 and 60 and not in great health, so I do not want to go through 2008 again as I'm not sure we have enough runway to recover this time..

ETA: Frequent 250+ point drops on the Dow lately are sure beginning to look like the beginning of a long bear to me.
Take heart. Although the market drops a lot one day, it then goes back up.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 3.42% Year to Date.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Mon Mar 19, 2018 12:57 pm

But it's different this time.

Or is it the same as the last time it was different?

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:13 pm

"But it's different this time . . ."

Yes, it is different, there is a big difference between spreading business news via the pony express and watching that cramer guy on cnbc while sitting at the airport waiting for your flight (and you know what I mean).

Good luck with your investments (with or without the pony express) y gracias por leer ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

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CokeSlurpee711
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CokeSlurpee711 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:44 pm

Bummed I missed the quarterly $FB sale (so far). My limit order of $FB 170 just sitting there. (My play money portion, all about index funds)... Yep $FB is doomed... just like last time (& next). Will cautiously await amazon's demise and sale price as well...

2015
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2015 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:52 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:00 am
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:51 am
Yeah - that sure makes sense..Facebook drops for reasons supposedly related to data mining for political purposes, and the entire market tanks.

Seems every day there is a new excuse. As someone looking to retire this year, I'm wishing I had dialed back my equity position even further than my roughly 25% I currently have. (I know - that seems piddly but when you're dealing with fairly big numbers, 25% equity getting hammered can be a real kick in the...). We're 54 and 60 and not in great health, so I do not want to go through 2008 again as I'm not sure we have enough runway to recover this time..

ETA: Frequent 250+ point drops on the Dow lately are sure beginning to look like the beginning of a long bear to me.
Actually, the 2008-2009 debacle, while certainly tumultuous and gut wrenching for many, turned out to be just fine for retirees because the rebound was fast and the long bull market gave them a big boost. Consequently, had the '4% rule' been used with a 25/75 portfolio from 2008 until now, the inflation-adjusted net return after withdrawals would have been -.6% annually, whereas the same with a 50/50 portfolio would have resulted in a .7% inflation-adjusted return.

But the next decade could look like 2000-2009, where bonds beat stocks. Given the rising rate environment we're in now though, I doubt that that will happen. I anticipate that we'll see low returns across the board, maybe 5-6% (nominal) for stocks and 3% for bonds.
My chicken bones show that the next decade will look like 1610-1619, for no other reason than the moon is in the 7th house and jupiter aligns with mars (and peace will guide the planets...and love will steer the stars).

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:00 pm

CokeSlurpee711 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:44 pm
Bummed I missed the quarterly $FB sale (so far). My limit order of $FB 170 just sitting there. (My play money portion, all about index funds)... Yep $FB is doomed... just like last time (& next). Will cautiously await amazon's demise and sale price as well...
Surprisingly, FB is looking vulnerable on user demographics, consumer attitude and usage and legal/regulatory issues right now. It could blow over, or it could be the beginning of some serious pushback on the Company..... I think the tech / data collection business is about to run into some serious headwinds right now. It is leaking in to general knowledge the amount of info being collected and how it is being exploited.... I think the business is at a turning point. (My 20s kids have already shut off a large portion of social media, they are smarter than me...)

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm

Bought some today. All index fund. -2% cheaper than yesterday. Cash is still the King.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Jack FFR1846 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:27 pm

Elwood: Debt at historic high, GDP at historic lows, it's night and we're wearing sunglasses.
Jake: Hit it.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:40 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Bought some today. All index fund. -2% cheaper than yesterday. Cash is still the King.
I bought some as well.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:55 pm

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Bought some today. All index fund. -2% cheaper than yesterday. Cash is still the King.
I should say I rebalanced in my 401k. now immediate tax due. Still holding a lot cash on hand. I like to buy things on sale.

RetireBy55
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetireBy55 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:58 pm

Bought a small amount more Primecap Core and Wellington..let's hope this isn't the beginning of a bigger move down, as 24.6K is about ten percent from the highs already..

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220volt
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 220volt » Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:59 pm

Bought some of the market today at the close and will buy more on Wednesday when Feds tank the market further.
"If I had only followed the advice of financial analysts in 2008, I'd have a million dollars today, provided I started with a hundred million dollars" - Jon Stewart

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:00 pm

[Quoted posts removed --admin LadyGeek]
There are actually different official measures of unemployment. The BLS publishes six different unemployment measures:

Image

So, it's not like discouraged and "off the books" workers are never taken into account. "Full employment" in economist speak doesn't mean every single person who wants a full time job has one. It really means the highest amount of employment before inflation starts to offset economic gains from further employment.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/economi ... xplains-19

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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:09 pm

2015 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:52 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 11:00 am
RetireBy55 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:51 am
Yeah - that sure makes sense..Facebook drops for reasons supposedly related to data mining for political purposes, and the entire market tanks.

Seems every day there is a new excuse. As someone looking to retire this year, I'm wishing I had dialed back my equity position even further than my roughly 25% I currently have. (I know - that seems piddly but when you're dealing with fairly big numbers, 25% equity getting hammered can be a real kick in the...). We're 54 and 60 and not in great health, so I do not want to go through 2008 again as I'm not sure we have enough runway to recover this time..

ETA: Frequent 250+ point drops on the Dow lately are sure beginning to look like the beginning of a long bear to me.
Actually, the 2008-2009 debacle, while certainly tumultuous and gut wrenching for many, turned out to be just fine for retirees because the rebound was fast and the long bull market gave them a big boost. Consequently, had the '4% rule' been used with a 25/75 portfolio from 2008 until now, the inflation-adjusted net return after withdrawals would have been -.6% annually, whereas the same with a 50/50 portfolio would have resulted in a .7% inflation-adjusted return.

But the next decade could look like 2000-2009, where bonds beat stocks. Given the rising rate environment we're in now though, I doubt that that will happen. I anticipate that we'll see low returns across the board, maybe 5-6% (nominal) for stocks and 3% for bonds.
My chicken bones show that the next decade will look like 1610-1619, for no other reason than the moon is in the 7th house and jupiter aligns with mars (and peace will guide the planets...and love will steer the stars).
I might be dead wrong, and I'm not betting on being right, but I didn't pull my numbers out of a hat. The bond return estimate come from their current yield, which most here would agree with. The stock return estimate comes not from valuations, but from the average investor portfolio allocation to equities, what has been the a very strong predictor of subsequent ten year equity returns.

Actually, given the current proportional allocation to equities, 4% nominal would be a more reasonable estimate for stocks returns over the next decade. Historically, at the current 44% level, subsequent returns have varied between about 2.5% and 6.5%, a much narrower band than predicted by valuation metrics like CAPE.

This link shows the relationship between average investor portfolio allocation to equities and subsequent 10 year returns as it's been updated since publication of the above post back in 2013. It hasn't been long, but the relationship is still very much there and strong.

But no one knows for sure.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 19, 2018 3:19 pm

I removed an off-topic post and several replies related to economic policy. The discussion was starting to derail. As a reminder, see: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
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CokeSlurpee711
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CokeSlurpee711 » Tue Mar 20, 2018 9:15 am

retiringwhen wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 2:00 pm
CokeSlurpee711 wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:44 pm
Bummed I missed the quarterly $FB sale (so far). My limit order of $FB 170 just sitting there. (My play money portion, all about index funds)... Yep $FB is doomed... just like last time (& next). Will cautiously await amazon's demise and sale price as well...
Surprisingly, FB is looking vulnerable on user demographics, consumer attitude and usage and legal/regulatory issues right now. It could blow over, or it could be the beginning of some serious pushback on the Company..... I think the tech / data collection business is about to run into some serious headwinds right now. It is leaking in to general knowledge the amount of info being collected and how it is being exploited.... I think the business is at a turning point. (My 20s kids have already shut off a large portion of social media, they are smarter than me...)
Maybe this warrants a separate tech company data exploitation thread because I do find it fascinating. It is my hope you're right. I'm not a big fan of that type social media (data collection & exploited but is this really anything different than what every other big tech company does?) . (I say that type because a website like bogleheads.org is kind of like social media). I'm very happy to lose a couple hundred if $FB is on its way to 0. I'm older than your kids and was in college when fb went beyond its initial colleges FWIW.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by H-Town » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am

Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MotoTrojan » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:23 am

thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
I expect 5% nominal :). As an accumulator I don’t mind getting less.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by 2Birds1Stone » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:24 am

As someone who is likely to get laid off in April, this is a bit scary.

:sharebeer

CyberGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CyberGuy » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:26 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:23 am
thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
I expect 5% nominal :). As an accumulator I don’t mind getting less.
It's about what I think as well; however, I do think we are on the cusp of new technologies which will improve efficiency and the market as a whole. AI, self driving vehicles, augmented reality wearables, etc...

We're not even going to be using cellphones as we currently think of them 10 years from now. Will likely be something wearable like glasses. I see future growth due to substantial technological advances.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by david1082b » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:52 am

thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
Choosing other months in the past with similar CAPE numbers to now: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table?f=m

Oct 1, 1997 - CAPE 32.90 - next 10 years saw 95% total return for VTSMX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Jul 1, 2001 - CAPE 32.16 - next 10 years saw 45% total return for VTSMX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Jul 1, 1997 - CAPE 32.76 - next 10 years saw 108% total return for VTSMX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Sep 1, 1929 - CAPE 32.54 - next 10 years saw minus 29% total return for S&P index, minus 13% including consumer price index change https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

So you can see the wide variety of returns that happened in the past at similar CAPE numbers. I wouldn't say anyone could ever hope for any particular size of return. You get what you get as always.

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munemaker
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by munemaker » Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:55 am

thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
What is the significance of the picture?

rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by rudeboy » Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:03 pm

david1082b wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:52 am
thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
Choosing other months in the past with similar CAPE numbers to now: http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/table?f=m

Oct 1, 1997 - CAPE 32.90 - next 10 years saw 95% total return for VTSMX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Jul 1, 2001 - CAPE 32.16 - next 10 years saw 45% total return for VTSMX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Jul 1, 1997 - CAPE 32.76 - next 10 years saw 108% total return for VTSMX http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fun ... A%5B%5D%7D

Sep 1, 1929 - CAPE 32.54 - next 10 years saw minus 29% total return for S&P index, minus 13% including consumer price index change https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

So you can see the wide variety of returns that happened in the past at similar CAPE numbers. I wouldn't say anyone could ever hope for any particular size of return. You get what you get as always.
Great post, thanks.

mega317
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mega317 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:41 pm

thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
I am so happy this picture is being quoted over and over again.
Hey we're getting close to the early Feb low again. Anyone have a TLH opportunity?

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DanMahowny
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by DanMahowny » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:48 pm

TLH - Total Laparoscopic Hysterectomy?
Funding secured

mega317
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by mega317 » Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:50 pm

Tallahassee International

Faisal
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Faisal » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:03 pm

Tax Loss Harvesting

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cfs
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by cfs » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:10 pm

So, what excuses do we have for the latest down market? Gracias por leer ~cfs~
~ Member of the Active Retired Force since 2014 ~

MJW
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by MJW » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:26 pm

cfs wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:10 pm
So, what excuses do we have for the latest down market? Gracias por leer ~cfs~
The wise market does not owe you an explanation. :P

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aj76er
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by aj76er » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:32 pm

cfs wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:10 pm
So, what excuses do we have for the latest down market? Gracias por leer ~cfs~
From what I can tell, it is all due to potential trade wars and Facebook.
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle

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alpine_boglehead
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alpine_boglehead » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:34 pm

munemaker wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:55 am
thangngo wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 11:18 am
Anyone here still have high hope for big returns of U.S. stock for the next decade?

Image
What is the significance of the picture?
Google reverse image search shows that this is from a series named "Curb your Enthusiasm". Maybe someone having watched it can enlighten us.

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oldcomputerguy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:35 pm

Wait ... is the market down? :shock:
It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

nolesrule
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nolesrule » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:39 pm

mega317 wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 1:50 pm
Tallahassee International
When did it become "International"? Used to be "Regional".

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VictoriaF
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:50 pm

MJW wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:26 pm
cfs wrote:
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:10 pm
So, what excuses do we have for the latest down market? Gracias por leer ~cfs~
The wise market does not owe you an explanation. :P
And the mean market gives so many explanations that it's impossible to make head or tail of it. Some of these explanations are political, others are financial, still others are statistical. Some of these explanations could lock this beautiful thread. And we don't want THAT to happen.

Victoria
Last edited by VictoriaF on Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WINNER of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. | Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)

CoAndy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CoAndy » Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:51 pm

Just got back in the office and checked the market.... :shock:

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