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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:12 pm
by jrbdmb
I recently changed employers (or more accurately, my previous employer sold my division to a different company) that caused me to have a 401K plan at both my previous employer and new employer. In an effort to simplify things I decided to close my old 401K and add the funds to my new 401K.
I decided to close out the old account shortly before the election, because I thought that there was a non-zero chance of a result that might cause a significant market correction, and if I had to be out of the market for a week or two this was a reasonable time to do it.
So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.
The moral of the story is - at least as far as the market goes - nobody knows nuthin' about where the market is headed next. Any investment decisions based on where you are "sure" the markets are headed is a fool's game.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Nov 16, 2016 5:45 pm
by livesoft
jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.
I know of at least one person who was making the prediction.
LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:58 am
by Uncle Pennybags
OMG, stocks are going sideways, what to do, what to do
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:28 pm
by Teague
I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:32 pm
by ray.james
Teague wrote:I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
lol
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:36 pm
by triceratop
livesoft wrote:jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.
I know of at least one person who was making the prediction.
LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash.
Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:59 pm
by mickeyd
Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice
Few do.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sat Nov 19, 2016 11:27 pm
by Leif
Uncle Pennybags wrote:OMG, stocks are going sideways, what to do, what to do
Will Rogers wrote:Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:06 am
by Wayson
triceratop wrote:livesoft wrote:jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.
I know of at least one person who was making the prediction.
LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash.
Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.
The depressing part is that people
do take his advice, if only because 'He's got a Nobel prize in economics, he must be smart!11' And then they'll get burned, decide that the market is a casino, and stay all cash or go into high-risk alternative investments.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 11:49 am
by Tycoon
Wayson wrote:triceratop wrote:livesoft wrote:jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.
I know of at least one person who was making the prediction.
LOL!
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash.
Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.
The depressing part is that people
do take his advice, if only because 'He's got a Nobel prize in economics, he must be smart!11' And then they'll get burned, decide that the market is a casino, and stay all cash or go into high-risk alternative investments.
People are sheep.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:07 pm
by just frank
I like and read Kruggie, but have never heard him give investment advice. Does he have a column in MarketWatch or something?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:10 pm
by tennisplyr
I can guarantee you two things, the market will go up and the market will go down, I won't guarantee when or how much.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 4:28 pm
by triceratop
just frank wrote:I like and read Kruggie, but have never heard him give investment advice. Does he have a column in MarketWatch or something?
It wasn't explicit "do this" advice but he did predict an immediate equities market crash. History has proven that hasty prediction a significant error.
Stay the course.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:47 pm
by just frank
triceratop wrote:just frank wrote:I like and read Kruggie, but have never heard him give investment advice. Does he have a column in MarketWatch or something?
It wasn't explicit "do this" advice but he did predict an immediate equities market crash. History has proven that hasty prediction a significant error.
Stay the course.
Sure, I read his impromptu reaction, but I didn't take it as reasoned or actionable 'advice', so much as an in the heat of the moment reaction. Not appropriate for a columnist to be sure, so it was followed by a mea culpa after he'd gotten some oxygen.
I have a hard time believing that there is a cadre of DIY investors reading Krugman's column twice a week and trading their investments based on it.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Mon Nov 21, 2016 7:43 pm
by Uncle Pennybags
just frank wrote:I have a hard time believing that there is a cadre of DIY investors reading Krugman's column twice a week and trading their investments based on it.
That's good, it keeps the market efficient; for every sucker seller there is a sucker buyer.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 5:36 am
by bayview
Uncle Pennybags wrote:just frank wrote:I have a hard time believing that there is a cadre of DIY investors reading Krugman's column twice a week and trading their investments based on it.
That's good, it keeps the market efficient; for every sucker seller there is a
sucker buyer.
Or livesoft, picking up a few bargains on a RBD.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2016 3:13 pm
by oldzey
The sun rose this morning (and so did the stock market).
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:05 pm
by columbia
My promise to myself is that I will only ever change my investment choices (not AA) on the day before Thanksgiving.
I made it through unscathed.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:24 pm
by Uncle Pennybags
The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 8:29 pm
by GoldenFinch
Uncle Pennybags wrote:The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.
At least bonds in free fall go down a bit more gradually than stocks in free fall.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Mon Dec 05, 2016 11:59 pm
by k66
GoldenFinch wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:The heck with stocks, bonds are in a fee fall.
At least bonds in free fall go down a bit more gradually than stocks in free fall.
Yeah--where's the fun in that?!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 8:48 am
by Tamalak
People must be antsy for a freefall, bumping this topic for the slightest reason!
No worries, it will come!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:09 am
by goodenyou
"I think the market will fluctuate."
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:11 am
by 2Birds1Stone
I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Tue Dec 06, 2016 9:44 am
by Uncle Pennybags
2Birds1Stone wrote:I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.
At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:34 am
by 2Birds1Stone
Guys, I just want to give you the heads up now.
I will be causing a major pullback in the US stock market sometime next week!
You see, I just spent a month fixing a mistake I made trying to do a backdoor Roth conversion.
See here for details.
viewtopic.php?f=1&p=3142923#p3142923
The result is that I have an extra ~$30k (15% of portfolio) sitting in cash within my 401k/Roth IRA right now. I will be dumping it into the market as soon as Vanguards frequent trading limits are lifted from my account.
History always repeats itself, and the last 3 times I had large lump sums of money to invest, the market dropped immediately after!
You're welcome
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:35 am
by 2Birds1Stone
Uncle Pennybags wrote:2Birds1Stone wrote:I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.
At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:49 am
by lostdog
2Birds1Stone wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:2Birds1Stone wrote:I've been hoping for a freefall since Nov 18th when Vanguard cut me a rollover distribution check to roll in my funds into employers 401k.....the Vanguard Total Stock fund I was in is up ~3% since then.......grumble grumble.
At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.
No one knows anything. Time in the market is better than timing the market.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:53 am
by why3not
2Birds1Stone wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.
You don't
have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:22 am
by Engineer250
why3not wrote:2Birds1Stone wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.
You don't
have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...
Alpaca futures.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 9:39 am
by ResearchMed
2Birds1Stone wrote:Guys, I just want to give you the heads up now.
I will be causing a major pullback in the US stock market sometime next week!
You see, I just spent a month fixing a mistake I made trying to do a backdoor Roth conversion.
See here for details.
viewtopic.php?f=1&p=3142923#p3142923
The result is that I have an extra ~$30k (15% of portfolio) sitting in cash within my 401k/Roth IRA right now. I will be dumping it into the market as soon as Vanguards frequent trading limits are lifted from my account.
History always repeats itself, and the last 3 times I had large lump sums of money to invest, the market dropped immediately after!
You're welcome
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).
Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?
RM
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:46 am
by 2Birds1Stone
ResearchMed wrote:
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).
Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?
RM
The reason the money was out of the market for so long was that I initiated a roll in transfer from my Rollover IRA to my employers 401k.
I did this after screwing up a backdoor Roth contribution by not fully understanding the consequences of Pro Rata when doing a recharacterization. I had to jump through several hoops with Fidelity to get them to accept the check that Vanguard cut for the funds.
The frequent trading limit is just keeping those now Roth funds from going back into Vanguard Total Stock.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 12:16 pm
by ResearchMed
2Birds1Stone wrote:ResearchMed wrote:
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).
Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?
RM
The reason the money was out of the market for so long was that I initiated a roll in transfer from my Rollover IRA to my employers 401k.
I did this after screwing up a backdoor Roth contribution by not fully understanding the consequences of Pro Rata when doing a recharacterization. I had to jump through several hoops with Fidelity to get them to accept the check that Vanguard cut for the funds.
The frequent trading limit is just keeping those now Roth funds from going back into Vanguard Total Stock.
Right.
But you could still put the money in a very similar fund(s) (like S&P Index, or S&P plus Extended, or whatever) for the duration, to get pretty much around that frequent trading restriction.
Then move it back where you wanted it.
RM
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:04 pm
by David Jay
2Birds1Stone wrote:ResearchMed wrote:
Are Vanguard's frequent trading limits prohibiting you from using *all* of the mutual funds available at Vanguard (or elsewhere via a brokerage window, perhaps).
Wasn't there something else you could have put your money, in if you didn't want to be out of the market, so you aren't dependent upon Vanguard's scheduling restrictions?
RM
The reason the money was out of the market for so long was that I initiated a roll in transfer from my Rollover IRA to my employers 401k.
I did this after screwing up a backdoor Roth contribution by not fully understanding the consequences of Pro Rata when doing a recharacterization. I had to jump through several hoops with Fidelity to get them to accept the check that Vanguard cut for the funds.
The frequent trading limit is just keeping those now Roth funds from going back into Vanguard Total Stock.
Buy Investor shares instead. They should be automatically upgraded to Admiral shares in a couple of months.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:24 pm
by jpelder
why3not wrote:2Birds1Stone wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.
You don't
have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Sun Dec 11, 2016 5:19 pm
by Uncle Pennybags
why3not wrote:2Birds1Stone wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:At least you don't have to buy the stock back at the higher price or do you
I sure do! See my post above this one. I had $30k out of the market over the past 30 days while the market had it's most recent run up. I'm hesitant to put it all in next week, the data says do it, my gut says that the rally is overbought.
You don't
have to, you can put in into something other than US stock...
I was referring to shorting a stock when a margin call comes in. Then there is no choice. OP you don't HAVE to go back in but the train is leaving the station and picking up steam. It's going to be "huge".
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:26 pm
by Uncle Pennybags
I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the marked go into free fall when it was announced?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:30 pm
by livesoft
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the marked go into free fall when it was announced?
That's easy, folks had to sell equities in order to rebalance into bonds. There have been quite a lot of rebalancing threads lately, so your fellow Bogleheads have contributed to all this action, too.
Furthermore, the FOMC made a prediction about the future which was not inline with what most pundits were predicting.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:44 pm
by nisiprius
jpelder wrote:
I've wondered, but I don't know how to find out... the more often I see that, the more I wonder whether it's intended to be a stock tip and/or a career recommendation, not for polymers in general a substances, but for GE Plastics in particular. That is, is the line really "There's a great future in plastics?" Or is it "There's a great future in Plastics?"
GE Plastics was for a long time one of the biggest and most important of the plastics producers. GE spat it out circa 2008.
If you never seen it, take a look at this industrial movie,
The Kingdom of Plastics. In addition to an impressive castle prefiguring Disneyland, the point of the title is that "plastics" is not animal, vegetable, or mineral, but belongs to the fourth kingdom of its own, the Kingdom of Plastics. During the 1950s, early plastics, notably polystyrene, gave "plastic" the reputation for cheapness, cheesiness, and phoniness.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 1:49 pm
by lack_ey
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the marked go into free fall when it was announced?
First of all, the change is not even that great and well within your typical noise. But obviously the market reacts to more than just the one change. People are looking at dot plots for projected future changes, wording, economic data, etc. I think these are overall tighter than expected. Though the 25 bp bump in FFR was virtually a lock and presumably priced in, the degree and expectations for future rate increases was not to the current extent.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:11 pm
by nisiprius
Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the market go into free fall when it was announced?
It lost... let me see, 19,920 to 19,800... 0.6%.
0.6% of my height is 0.4 inches. I lose more than 0.6% of my height when I take off my shoes.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:19 pm
by lack_ey
nisiprius wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the market go into free fall when it was announced?
It lost... let me see, 19,920 to 19,800... 0.6%.
0.6% of my height is 0.4 inches. I lose more than 0.6% of my height when I take off my shoes.
BREAKING NEWS: Market Changes Shoes, Loses 0.6%. Is Another Hike on the Horizon?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:20 pm
by ray.james
nisiprius wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm confused; everyone knew with 100% certainty that the Fed was going to raise rates today. So why did the market go into free fall when it was announced?
It lost... let me see, 19,920 to 19,800... 0.6%.
0.6% of my height is 0.4 inches. I lose more than 0.6% of my height when I take off my shoes.
Rofl, I have no idea how you come up with these. Coffee over desk!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:34 pm
by nedsaid
Good to see this thread pop up again. This thread is one of Nedsaid's contrary market indicators and it has worked most of the time. If I am right, this will be a short blip downwards.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 2:56 pm
by Tamalak
vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:11 pm
by TomatoTomahto
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
Maybe they're better at reading the writing on the wall. Or maybe not. Or maybe their markets close earlier. Rip the entrails out of a pigeon and get back to me.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 5:20 pm
by Tamalak
TomatoTomahto wrote:Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
Maybe they're better at reading the writing on the wall. Or maybe not. Or maybe their markets close earlier. Rip the entrails out of a pigeon and get back to me.
I already asked CNBC.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 6:30 pm
by corpgator
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
That's just money fleeing to the dollar.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:48 pm
by Uncle Pennybags
Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:07 pm
by Doom&Gloom
Freefall ain't what it used to be.