U.S. stocks in free fall

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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:40 pm We don't have an international free fall thread, but I'm seeing international down more than 3% after hours according to my "VXUS" search on the old Googley doogly.
Somebody needs to step up and start such a thread.

Just think, if you start that thread, your user name could be up there along with the immortal "Goldstar" and "Lbill" who started the US "soaring" and "free fall" threads. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:53 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:40 pm We don't have an international free fall thread, but I'm seeing international down more than 3% after hours according to my "VXUS" search on the old Googley doogly.
Somebody needs to step up and start such a thread.

Just think, if you start that thread, your user name could be up there along with the immortal "Goldstar" and "Lbill" who started the US "soaring" and "free fall" threads. :D
Or it could flop. Our international soaring thread hasn't gained much traction despite being at multiyear highs earlier this week! I'm not about to go down in Bogleheads history as a bust!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

texasfight wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:40 pm Small caps are in the largest bubble I have personally ever witnessed.
Small Caps tend to do the best in the recovery phase which is right now, in aggregate Small Caps still have a lot of ground to make up since 2018 since they have lagged a lot... and saying that Small Caps is the largest bubble is downright laughable when you have several components of the tech heavy S&P 500 running ridiculous PE ratios.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/30/small-c ... mills.html

Small Caps have way more to run and will outperform this year is my prediction!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

/es opened at 3750, not looking good.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

H-Town wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:28 am Forester speaks it into existence. :twisted:

The start of 50% drop?
There's no reason it needs to stop there. Should we go for a record drop? :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:08 pm /es opened at 3750, not looking good.
Are futures open tonight?

I thought that equity markets are closed tomorrow for the holiday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Stinky wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 8:11 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:08 pm /es opened at 3750, not looking good.
Are futures open tonight?

I thought that equity markets are closed tomorrow for the holiday.
Money never sleeps. The extended session is open.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by texasfight »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 6:05 pm
texasfight wrote: Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:40 pm Small caps are in the largest bubble I have personally ever witnessed.
Small Caps tend to do the best in the recovery phase which is right now, in aggregate Small Caps still have a lot of ground to make up since 2018 since they have lagged a lot... and saying that Small Caps is the largest bubble is downright laughable when you have several components of the tech heavy S&P 500 running ridiculous PE ratios.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/30/small-c ... mills.html

Small Caps have way more to run and will outperform this year is my prediction!
I get it. Just like value/cyclicals/high beta. Thing is that people assume IWM is value, when it is has the highest FWD PE, huge amount of money losing companies, etc. You can argue multiple expansion for companies like facebook, apple, amazon, microsoft (these companies have positive earnings yields and strong moats so they can be viewed as a perpetual TIPS bond with a positive real yield (current earnings yield) as long as earning keep up with inflation. Small caps have lagged for a reason, just like value, and the factor based investors are clueless when it come to global macro and long term cycles. But we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

texasfight wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:14 pmBut we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc.
Fair enough, when I refer to Small Caps I was referring to high quality small caps i.e. SP600 which is what I hold. I am not a big fan of the Russell 2000 either.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by texasfight »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:34 pm
texasfight wrote: Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:14 pmBut we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc.
Fair enough, when I refer to Small Caps I was referring to high quality small caps i.e. SP600 which is what I hold. I am not a big fan of the Russell 2000 either.
That is a solid index.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by F150HD »

airlines: While vaccine rollouts were stoking forecasts for a 90% rebound in Europe’s leisure market just a month ago, fast-spreading new viral strains are prompting people to shelve vacation plans at what should be the busiest time for bookings.

Interesting article I ran across discussing airlines/Europe. Wonder if this sentiment will trickle here...

Hopefully not another lost summer in 2021 accompanied by airline bankruptcies. Buffet got out of all airlines last Spring. Guessing theres some experience at work in that decision.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

BTC in free fall. 29K now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:19 pm BTC in free fall. 29K now.
This is the apparent news that triggered the fall.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/cur ... 1029990921
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:25 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:19 pm BTC in free fall. 29K now.
This is the apparent news that triggered the fall.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/cur ... 1029990921
Looks like "double spend" did not occur though. A generational opportunity unfolding in front of our very eyes.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jarjarM »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:29 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:25 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:19 pm BTC in free fall. 29K now.
This is the apparent news that triggered the fall.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/cur ... 1029990921
Looks like "double spend" did not occur though. A generational opportunity unfolding in front of our very eyes.
I just saw that too, particularly every large BTC exchanges are releasing statement/analysis on the so called "double spend" issue. Someone can get in and buy some BTC on a 20% discount :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

market seems to be starting to roll over, a 10% pullback would be healthy at this point
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by APX32 »

Yes please, a 10% drop in S&P, maybe 15-20% in Nasdaq, and bitcoin to $20k. I need to do some rebalancing plus large amounts of new money coming every paycheck, so I wouldn’t mind a healthy correction.
40% SPY | 10% GLD | 5% BTC | 45% Cash (cold hard cash)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:43 pm market seems to be starting to roll over, a 10% pullback would be healthy at this point
Roll over, how so? The U.S. market, as measured by the S&P 500, hit an all time high yet again today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

/es -0.36%. Brace for impact!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Rough red seas ahead. Hold on tight.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:38 am Rough red seas ahead. Hold on tight.
Not so fast there!

NASDAQ has almost recovered and was in positive territory for a little while.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:38 am Rough red seas ahead. Hold on tight.
Stocks have fallen all the way to where they were on -

Wednesday, 1/20/21
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:58 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:38 am Rough red seas ahead. Hold on tight.
Stocks have fallen all the way to where they were on -

Wednesday, 1/20/21
It's horrible. Time to go to cash.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

jason2459 wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:06 am
Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:58 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:38 am Rough red seas ahead. Hold on tight.
Stocks have fallen all the way to where they were on -

Wednesday, 1/20/21
It's horrible. Time to go to cash.
:beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:19 pm BTC in free fall. 29K now.
$32,630.20 this morning.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peppers »

My...My...My... look what the cat dragged in.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rocketsrule »

Hello Darkness my old friend.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:20 am
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:19 pm BTC in free fall. 29K now.
$32,630.20 this morning.
A nice store of value. :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

Tech seems to be bouncing already...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair »

Short lived, already going back up :beer In Fed we trust :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

It seems plausible to me that stocks are stalling mostly because the rollout of vaccines is not going as well as anticipated. But no one knows for sure. There are at least as many reasons as there are market participants.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

/es -0.7%. Brace for impact!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:50 pm /es -0.7%. Brace for impact!
If there is impact, the free fall is over.

Good news or bad news?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:50 pm /es -0.7%. Brace for impact!
How highly levered are you that -0.7% is an impact?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:18 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:50 pm /es -0.7%. Brace for impact!
How highly levered are you that -0.7% is an impact?
400%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:31 am
000 wrote: Tue Jan 26, 2021 1:18 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:50 pm /es -0.7%. Brace for impact!
How highly levered are you that -0.7% is an impact?
400%.
yikes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jan 25, 2021 11:50 pm /es -0.7%. Brace for impact!
Futures are now flat.

I prefer the “soaring” thread for today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mtmingus »

Euro 1~2% UP solid.
China 2.5% DOWN!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Looks like a rough start for the S&P this morning. Down about 0.85%.

But Nasdaq is just a little red.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by hoofaman »

People are selling to buy more AMC, GME, EXPR, etc

I wonder what the talking heads will name this “rotation”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

hoofaman wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:04 am People are selling to buy more AMC, GME, EXPR, etc

I wonder what the talking heads will name this “rotation”
Seriously?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

I'm pumped, LET'S GO!!! This GME situation is the greatest financial-happening in our lifetimes. Only boomers who deify central banks will disagree.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Most likely due to Boeing's results, not the GME pump.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:37 am Most likely due to Boeing's results, not the GME pump.
lol who cares about that and try to look at the bigger picture. This episode, (even if it'll ultimately be short-lived) poured cold water over the faces of those who forgot what risk, fair value, and reality are (e.g. "Ms. Market" posters and institutional investors who have a permanent guardian angel in CB intervention when things don't go their way).

Let's hope this episode to be the first chapter or forward in the story where markets go back to functioning as they're intended to function -- and not 'stocks only go up, and if they don't the Fed will bail out my boomer-pension.' Forester, I'm with you!!! :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

morsk wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:52 am
lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:37 am Most likely due to Boeing's results, not the GME pump.
lol who cares about that and try to look at the bigger picture. This episode, (even if it'll ultimately be short-lived) poured cold water over the faces of those who forgot what risk, fair value, and reality are (e.g. "Ms. Market" posters and institutional investors who have a permanent guardian angel in CB intervention when things don't go their way).

Let's hope this episode to be the first chapter or forward in the story where markets go back to functioning as they're intended to function -- and not 'stocks only go up, and if they don't the Fed will bail out my boomer-pension.' Forester, I'm with you!!! :sharebeer
Gotcha. Hello there "Bear".

Forester will enjoy your company.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:56 am
Gotcha. Hello there "Bear".

Forester will enjoy your company.
Good morning to you too, friend. And to be clear, I do not hold any short or put positions nor have I touched GME. I am only a bear in sentiment only, not necessarily positionally (although maybe some may disagree because I'm not in 3X Bull ETFs).

But seriously, if there's anyone on this forum who is unable to appreciate what's going on right now, in real-time, and the potential ramifications of this week's actions, I don't know what to say! Back to RSS for me, see ya later!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Pawpatrol »

My guess is this selling is some combination of

1) people hedged their short gme/bbby/amc/bb/other mall retailer with long IWM (russell 2000) and this is unwinding. You will know this is true when the iwm rallies on the open. Notice how iwm and gme are trading inverse of each other in premarket and yesterday.

2) short sellers are using futures to try to cover as much of their shorts as possible as they dont want gme to happen to them.

Buy and hold here but if im right, this will culminate in the coming days/weeks with the parabolic blowoff top everyone has been waiting for as there will be no one left to buy once shorts cover. Too many top callers for this to be the end.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Pawpatrol »

JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:37 am Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
Russell 2000 futures down 2.5%
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JoMoney »

Pawpatrol wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:44 am
JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:37 am Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
Russell 2000 futures down 2.5%
Russell 2000 isn't really representative of the stock market, it's maybe 10% of the market. The Dow 30 is more representative of broad stocks than the Russell 2000.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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