U.S. stocks in free fall

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:43 am

305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:27 am
Since you believe the current price is just a number and has little bearing on the future price you’ll sell it for, then you should OVERbalance whenever the market drops and you have unrealized losses. So did you overbalance past your AA a day ago after the slight drop?
Of course; catch that falling knife.
J G Bankerton wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 3:32 pm
In the words of Coach Berra; "It's deja vu all over again". My buy bots are lighting up like a Christmas tree. Now I'm waiting for Santa and his rally.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:44 am

305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:27 am
If you believe that markets are fairly rational and efficient, the value of an asset reflects the closest guess to its true intrinsic value (which is based on future discounted cash flow).
I don't want to derail the thread, but there's a big difference between a market being efficient and rational. Markets can, and at times certainly appear to, incorporate all publicly known information via very emotionally driven processes.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 305pelusa » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:50 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:44 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:27 am
If you believe that markets are fairly rational and efficient, the value of an asset reflects the closest guess to its true intrinsic value (which is based on future discounted cash flow).
I don't want to derail the thread, but there's a big difference between a market being efficient and rational. Markets can, and at times certainly appear to, incorporate all publicly known information via very emotionally driven processes.
I agree. I didn’t say the were the same. I said you’d need both. If the information was incorporated quickly (efficient) and said information was interpreted somewhat reasonably and correctly into the price (rational), then the rest of my argument holds.

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:53 am

305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:27 am
If you believe that markets are fairly rational and efficient, the value of an asset reflects the closest guess to its true intrinsic value (which is based on future discounted cash flow). So losses really are losses.

But you don’t believe that so let me ask you this:

Since you believe the current price is just a number and has little bearing on the future price you’ll sell it for, then you should OVERbalance whenever the market drops and you have unrealized losses. So did you overbalance past your AA a day ago after the slight drop? And are you planning to OVERsell stocks today after the market increase?

My guess is that you didn’t. And that if you had a small daily unrealized loss/gain, it’s because deep down you think that maybe that means that asset truly is worth a little less or more. So you only rebalance back to your starting AA and stay the course.
You're over-thinking it again. I don't make any changes to my portfolio, except to gradually de-risk it, starting at around age 56-57 to where I am now at age 69.

I bought a one-room cabin with no plumbing and no heat, on 7 acres of woods, on a dirt road in 1981 for $27k. As of 1989 it became a two-bedroom house. I have an approximate idea of what it's worth today. Did it drop in value during 2008? Probably, but I didn't care and don't care.

I will only care when (if) I do sell it, then its true value will be known.

My daily-fluctuating portfolio value is just a reference. Yes, that is the value of those assets at that point in time IF I SOLD THEM. But the number will only really matter to me when I retire and start withdrawing from it.

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305pelusa
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 305pelusa » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:11 am

Bluce wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:53 am
305pelusa wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:27 am
If you believe that markets are fairly rational and efficient, the value of an asset reflects the closest guess to its true intrinsic value (which is based on future discounted cash flow). So losses really are losses.

But you don’t believe that so let me ask you this:

Since you believe the current price is just a number and has little bearing on the future price you’ll sell it for, then you should OVERbalance whenever the market drops and you have unrealized losses. So did you overbalance past your AA a day ago after the slight drop? And are you planning to OVERsell stocks today after the market increase?

My guess is that you didn’t. And that if you had a small daily unrealized loss/gain, it’s because deep down you think that maybe that means that asset truly is worth a little less or more. So you only rebalance back to your starting AA and stay the course.
You're over-thinking it again. I don't make any changes to my portfolio, except to gradually de-risk it, starting at around age 56-57 to where I am now at age 69.

I bought a one-room cabin with no plumbing and no heat, on 7 acres of woods, on a dirt road in 1981 for $27k. As of 1989 it became a two-bedroom house. I have an approximate idea of what it's worth today. Did it drop in value during 2008? Probably, but I didn't care and don't care.

I will only care when (if) I do sell it, then its true value will be known.

My daily-fluctuating portfolio value is just a reference. Yes, that is the value of those assets at that point in time IF I SOLD THEM. But the number will only really matter to me when I retire and start withdrawing from it.
I’m not overthinking, just annoyed when people say something but act inconsistent with it.

Stocks are going up today. Either you think that increase is not warranted, so stocks are not as well priced today as yesterday, so you should want a little less stock than yesterday (sell). Or you think the increase is warranted, stocks are a little more worthwhile to hold, they have a chance of being worth more in the future when we both will sell, and so we hold steady.

Up to you.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:48 am

looks like we're having a *proper* melt up today, if this holds to the close we will be close to some prior highs.

I think investors are recognizing that sentiment has been unreasonably bearish and the doom scenario isn't playing out in the data (blockbuster job numbers today!!) so money is now flowing back into equities.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:57 am

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 10:17 am
Bluce wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:57 am
MotoTrojan wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:40 am
stocknoob4111 wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:14 am
ruralavalon wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:02 pm
We made $34.81 today :) . In our area that is almost enough for dinner for two at a moderately priced restaurant.
lol, I lost $3,273.. more than a nice buffet for sure 😀
I appreciate you saying you lost it! Enough with this "it isn't lost unless you sell" garbage; of course it is.
I would take the other side of that debate. :sharebeer

Portfolio value fluctuates just like real estate values fluctuate (ignoring the differences in liquidity).

If your house value goes down $30k during a recession, does it matter if you have no intention of selling it? It is an unrealized loss, just like when a portfolio falls in value but nothing is sold. 8-)
It is a real loss, it's just not "realized". :beer
Its probable market value at any particular point in time is just a reference. It only becomes real if it is bought or sold at that point. If you don't believe me, ask the IRS.
Well, it's not a taxable event until the transaction is logged. But the loss of market value is no less real.
The loss (or gain, depending on the day) is real. But it's going to keep fluctuating every day next week as well. If I don't need to buy or sell today, and it's not moved so far that my portfolio is unbalanced, why do I need to worry about temporary losses and gains in value? I think another way of saying this, is zoom out on the graph. Look at the big picture, not the daily (or monthly, or even yearly) gains and drops. If you're in for the long haul, the big picture is what matters, not the details. With ETFs, we can look at intraday gains and drops, too ... on any given day, does it matter if I had a real loss an hour ago (slightly down) and a real gain now? Only if I'm trying to buy or sell today, which I'm not.

So I think a big part of what the folks saying "it's not a real loss unless you sell" mean, is that there's nothing you can do about the fluctuations, and the short time frame stuff just doesn't matter over the longer time frame. Unless you let the losses freak you out, because you're focused on the fact that they're real ... and then sell low. Then the fluctuations matter.

And actually, if you ask Vanguard, you don't actually have any money in VTSAX (or other mutual funds, stocks, ETFs, etc). You just own the securities. You only get money out when you sell those. Until then, you have securities which fluctuate in value until they are sold, but not money. (I heard this direct from Vanguard when helping a relative with an inherited account - there's no money in there! Just securities.)

But it takes a whole lot less words to say that the losses aren't real unless you sell. Or need to sell. And it helps keep people from turning real losses into realized losses unnecessarily.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 12:26 pm

Stay the course Bogleheads! I invested more yesterday.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:19 pm

clip651 wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 11:57 am
So I think a big part of what the folks saying "it's not a real loss unless you sell"
When I buy or sell the realized loss or gain is shared with governments; up to 51% of said gain or loss. :?

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by StevieG72 » Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:55 pm

If I was a moderator, I would lock this thread. Topic exhausted, thread has run it's course.

Then we could start a new one every time VTI drops more than .25 cents.

As a second thought maybe it should be left open, it has had a good run. Could be the oldest active thread? Maybe it could be edited to show the amount of decline each time panic sets in and wakes the thread from hibernation.
Fools think their own way is right, but the wise listen to others.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:26 pm

StevieG72 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:55 pm
If I was a moderator, I would lock this thread. Topic exhausted, thread has run it's course.
It's a very useful thread to show "nobody knows nothing" (I prefer "nobody knows enough")

Go through all the years, and look at all the predictions of people who were very very sure, yet turned out to be wrong.

None of us can predict the future.
The J stands for Jay

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:31 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:26 pm
StevieG72 wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 1:55 pm
If I was a moderator, I would lock this thread. Topic exhausted, thread has run it's course.
It's a very useful thread to show "nobody knows nothing" (I prefer "nobody knows enough")

Go through all the years, and look at all the predictions of people who were very very sure, yet turned out to be wrong.

None of us can predict the future.
This thread also provides an excellent illustration of repeated unwarranted panic at temporary drops in the stock indexes.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:45 pm

I am a moderator. If there are further comments regarding this thread, please PM me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey » Sat Dec 07, 2019 3:24 pm

Whether the market is up or down, remember to:

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sun Dec 08, 2019 1:30 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Sat Dec 07, 2019 2:26 pm
It's a very useful thread to show "nobody knows nothing" (I prefer "nobody knows enough")
Raymond told John Bogle "nobody knows nothing".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLCfkmaqI6k

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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ » Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:30 pm

DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
So far, your plan is not working... The stock market AND Tesla are at record highs.

But time will indeed tell... Maybe you'll still be proven right.

But predicting the future is hard.
The J stands for Jay

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:10 pm

HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:30 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
So far, your plan is not working... The stock market AND Tesla are at record highs.

But time will indeed tell... Maybe you'll still be proven right.

But predicting the future is hard.
The internets never forget.

guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw » Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:29 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:10 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:30 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
So far, your plan is not working... The stock market AND Tesla are at record highs.

But time will indeed tell... Maybe you'll still be proven right.

But predicting the future is hard.
The internets never forget.
TSLA short is scary.. I would never own it nor would I short it. The are many fanatic TSLA bulls (and haters) that don't know reason.

Btw. When is the next correction? I am guessing February. The politics might scare the markets...

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon » Thu Dec 19, 2019 5:34 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:29 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:10 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:30 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
So far, your plan is not working... The stock market AND Tesla are at record highs.

But time will indeed tell... Maybe you'll still be proven right.

But predicting the future is hard.
The internets never forget.
TSLA short is scary.. I would never own it nor would I short it. The are many fanatic TSLA bulls (and haters) that don't know reason.

Btw. When is the next correction? I am guessing February. The politics might scare the markets...
I don't try to guess when a correction might occur. I don't know how to predict that, and don't trust anyone else's prediction.

Politics are often scary.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:32 pm

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 4:29 pm
Btw. When is the next correction? I am guessing February. The politics might scare the markets...
The recession is supposed to come 12 to 18 months after the inverted yield curve. That would be between September 2020 and March 2021.
I have enough house money to ride out the recession. :greedy

CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:57 am

Time to resurrect this thread! Down baby down!

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Dec 24, 2019 10:55 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Tue Dec 24, 2019 9:57 am
Time to resurrect this thread! Down baby down!
Made me look; I’m up 0.03% today.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sergeant » Tue Dec 24, 2019 2:15 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:10 pm
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Dec 18, 2019 1:30 pm
DanMahowny wrote:
Wed Aug 07, 2019 8:08 am
We may be plunging towards a black swan event- an equity market with no bottom.

I sold all equities in Jan2018 and predicted DOW 16,000. Now I think I was wrong. It's going to be far worse than that. This market has been propped up and managed for years now. I think it's over.

I'm in short term treasuries, TIPS, and some gold, (and still have my Tesla short position). I hope this portfolio will preserve my wealth? Time will tell. I plan to stay the course.
So far, your plan is not working... The stock market AND Tesla are at record highs.

But time will indeed tell... Maybe you'll still be proven right.

But predicting the future is hard.
The internets never forget.
Dan hasn't been posting on his shorting prowess and how Tesla is going to zero as much as he used to. For the record I thought Tesla was headed way down too but recognize my predictions are terrible and took no actions.
Lincoln 3 EOW! AA 40/60.

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm

This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom » Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm

Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:59 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Simple. Just put your 2020 Roth in an inverse S&P500 fund, maybe even a 3x leveraged one!

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:01 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:59 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Simple. Just put your 2020 Roth in an inverse S&P500 fund, maybe even a 3x leveraged one!
:shock: :oops:
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:04 pm

Keep your asset allocation and back up the truck.
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:04 pm

SDS - Inverse 3x fund!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:06 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:01 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:59 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Simple. Just put your 2020 Roth in an inverse S&P500 fund, maybe even a 3x leveraged one!
:shock: :oops:
Maybe the poster knows something. Sounds like a way to free-fall in a new way. Sadly Vanguard doesn't offer that with no fees. :(

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:24 pm

Patience is in order. Melt-ups don’t end well.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:26 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:06 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:01 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:59 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm


Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Simple. Just put your 2020 Roth in an inverse S&P500 fund, maybe even a 3x leveraged one!
:shock: :oops:
Maybe the poster knows something. Sounds like a way to free-fall in a new way. Sadly Vanguard doesn't offer that with no fees. :(
:twisted:

FWIW I will actually be purchasing $6K worth on FNDX (US large-cap fundamental index) on 1/2/20. I also have a years worth of HSA contributions that should arrive around then at Fidelity and will likely be invested in domestic and foreign small-caps.

The DW's Roth IRA will have to wait a few months, so maybe she will get a better deal.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm

J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7639
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).
I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1410
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).
I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7639
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm


Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).
I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.

TheDDC
Posts: 586
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:11 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC » Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:53 pm

Well VTSAX closed 4 bps lower today. I’d call that the best dip in a while!

-TheDDC
Refreshingly, a double barrel shotgun blast of truth... | Rules to wealth building: 100% VTSAX piled high and deep, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to health care industrial complex

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1410
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).
I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.

MotoTrojan
Posts: 7639
Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:57 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm


Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).
I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
Fair. Maybe I’m just talking myself in to next week’s IRA lump sum.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1410
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:01 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:57 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm


I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
Fair. Maybe I’m just talking myself in to next week’s IRA lump sum.
I came up with the rationale because I've got the backwards problem. I may be on the income bubble so I *shouldn't* contribute to the Roth (and can't do a backdoor (pro rata)) so my best course of action is to invest in taxable and wait until 2021 to see where my income falls for 2020. Plus side, I can TLH. Down side, I have to pay taxes.... grrr

User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 2849
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky » Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:02 am

TheDDC wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:53 pm
Well VTSAX closed 4 bps lower today. I’d call that the best dip in a while!

-TheDDC
Yes, my VTSAX lost thousands hundreds tens of dollars today.

Buy the dip!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt

User avatar
J G Bankerton
Posts: 1553
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:30 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton » Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:34 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:15 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:06 pm
J G Bankerton wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:54 pm
This dip-less market isn't good for buying the dips. Me thinks the algorithms have been reprogrammed. :annoyed
Yep. The market has removed buying opportunities from our lives. Oh, what ever will we do???
I have been doing it, buy high; fortunately it keeps getting higher. I'm a bit concerned about the all in 2020 Roth on January 2ed. :confused
Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions.
I split it up more than that. I have a number of units I invest every month without fail. If there is a free-fall I buy more with my venture capital fund. So far it is working great; of course the only way to lose money in this market is to give it away to "advisors'.
TheDDC wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:53 pm
Well VTSAX closed 4 bps lower today. I’d call that the best dip in a while!

-TheDDC
VTI the ETF flavor of that fund was down 9.1 basis points. Scary. :shock:

User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 15182
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:20 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:27 pm


Could split it up into 12x monthly contributions. Or put it all into a taxable account. You've got until you file to either tax loss harvest or accept the gains (which would be LTCG at that point in time).
I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around foregoing tax advantaged space in order to make taxable contributions just in order to 'hedge' against tax rates going up. It smacks of gambling to me (i.e. the expected return is negative).
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 17170
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Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm

Stinky wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:02 am
TheDDC wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:53 pm
Well VTSAX closed 4 bps lower today. I’d call that the best dip in a while!

-TheDDC
Yes, my VTSAX lost thousands hundreds tens of dollars today.

Buy the dip!
After having international investments for ages this “dip” was notable. Rebalance time!
John C. Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio: Total Stock & Total Bond. "Simplicity is the master key to financial success."

User avatar
Bluce
Posts: 467
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:13 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:20 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm


I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around foregoing tax advantaged space in order to make taxable contributions just in order to 'hedge' against tax rates going up. It smacks of gambling to me (i.e. the expected return is negative).
I agree. Without doing the math, it seems that a guaranteed compounded return over the long-term, insulated from taxes, would beat fiddling around in a taxable account, trying to hit a moving target.

At any rate, I've maxed out my SEP-IRA for 30 years now, with excess cash going into a taxable account. No regrets.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1410
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:50 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:20 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:33 pm


I can understand pulling existing taxable funds to fill an IRA (especially if they are a loss) but if you have the money, I can't see a justification for putting the cash into taxable and then swapping to IRA later.
If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around foregoing tax advantaged space in order to make taxable contributions just in order to 'hedge' against tax rates going up. It smacks of gambling to me (i.e. the expected return is negative).
The hedge is against stocks dropping within the contribution timeframe. If they go up, you pay a small cap gains tax. If they go down, you get a deduction.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1410
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:51 pm

Bluce wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:13 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:20 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:45 pm


If you are firmly convinced the market is going to take a nose dive and it actually takes a nose dive, you get the benefit of tax loss harvesting. Paper losses in an IRA have no value.
If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around foregoing tax advantaged space in order to make taxable contributions just in order to 'hedge' against tax rates going up. It smacks of gambling to me (i.e. the expected return is negative).
I agree. Without doing the math, it seems that a guaranteed compounded return over the long-term, insulated from taxes, would beat fiddling around in a taxable account, trying to hit a moving target.

At any rate, I've maxed out my SEP-IRA for 30 years now, with excess cash going into a taxable account. No regrets.
Because you aren't understanding the if/then scenario.

User avatar
Bluce
Posts: 467
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:13 pm

Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:51 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:13 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:20 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:50 pm


If I believe enough to invest cash on hand in taxable when I could contribute it to an IRA that same moment, then I’d just wait for the crash, in cash.
True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around foregoing tax advantaged space in order to make taxable contributions just in order to 'hedge' against tax rates going up. It smacks of gambling to me (i.e. the expected return is negative).
I agree. Without doing the math, it seems that a guaranteed compounded return over the long-term, insulated from taxes, would beat fiddling around in a taxable account, trying to hit a moving target.

At any rate, I've maxed out my SEP-IRA for 30 years now, with excess cash going into a taxable account. No regrets.
Because you aren't understanding the if/then scenario.
I have better things to do with my time.

Lee_WSP
Posts: 1410
Joined: Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:15 pm
Location: Arizona

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP » Sun Dec 29, 2019 12:05 am

Bluce wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 6:13 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 5:51 pm
Bluce wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:13 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:20 pm
Lee_WSP wrote:
Fri Dec 27, 2019 11:55 pm


True, but since this is Bogleheads and we hedge our bets, I think investing it in taxable is a good compromise.
I still have a hard time wrapping my brain around foregoing tax advantaged space in order to make taxable contributions just in order to 'hedge' against tax rates going up. It smacks of gambling to me (i.e. the expected return is negative).
I agree. Without doing the math, it seems that a guaranteed compounded return over the long-term, insulated from taxes, would beat fiddling around in a taxable account, trying to hit a moving target.

At any rate, I've maxed out my SEP-IRA for 30 years now, with excess cash going into a taxable account. No regrets.
Because you aren't understanding the if/then scenario.
I have better things to do with my time.
That's fair, but your not even understanding the basic premise. We're not even talking about the same thing. No one is advocating foregoing a Roth contribution voluntarily.

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