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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:13 am
by greg24
livesoft wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:12 am
How do you explain that not much has happened today?
Animal spirits.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:14 am
by livesoft
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:50 am
Other than the trade war (which could end suddenly), there's not an obvious catalyst for a big drop in the same way there was in 2008.
Brexit uncertainty is up there with "the trade war", isn't it?

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:16 am
by livesoft
greg24 wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:13 am
livesoft wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:12 am
How do you explain that not much has happened today?
Animal spirits.
That makes sense. Investors seem to be very busy figuring out things about dog attacks right now.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:17 am
by alfaspider
livesoft wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:14 am
alfaspider wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:50 am
Other than the trade war (which could end suddenly), there's not an obvious catalyst for a big drop in the same way there was in 2008.
Brexit uncertainty is up there with "the trade war", isn't it?
Perhaps, but it's not up there with the suprime crisis. The UK is a big economy, but a disorderly Brexit would be more of a headache than a real calamity here. Plus, Brexit could resolve relatively suddenly as well. There's a big chance someone blinks before the end of the month.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:42 am
by TheTimeLord
People here need to figure out the source of their stress and angst. My guess is a lot of it stems from spending a large part of each day looking forward to retiring instead of living in the present. Be careful, you might start trying to hang on to your money too tightly and that could lead to behavioral mistakes.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:50 am
by ruralavalon
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:42 am
People here need to figure out the source of their stress and angst. My guess is a lot of it stems from spending a large part of each day looking forward to retiring instead of living in the present. Be careful, you might start trying to hang on to your money too tightly and that could lead to behavioral mistakes.
I agree.

Behavioral mistakes are always a danger, and are as large a danger as any other currently on the horizon.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:45 pm
by Rus In Urbe
drk

Rus In Urbe wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:19 am
This thread-title is completely hyperbolic of course. Free Fall? Not yet. But it could happen soon.

Note the timing of the first post.
THANKS for pointing that out, drk!

The original post was written August 2011 on a day when the market skidded down 550 points. I wouldn't really call that "free fall" either. 550 points is sure scary, but I recall being unimpressed by that slump. We bought more. By Aug 2011 our accounts (and yours too no doubt) had recovered and then some, and we were well into the Great Recovery!

But the !YIKES! title of this thread is doubtless why I clicked on it.
And why it's over 200 pages by now . . . Our amygdalas are super-stimulated by fear! :P

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:23 am
by GoldenFinch
Rus In Urbe wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:45 pm
drk

Rus In Urbe wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:19 am
This thread-title is completely hyperbolic of course. Free Fall? Not yet. But it could happen soon.

Note the timing of the first post.
THANKS for pointing that out, drk!

The original post was written August 2011 on a day when the market skidded down 550 points. I wouldn't really call that "free fall" either. 550 points is sure scary, but I recall being unimpressed by that slump. We bought more. By Aug 2011 our accounts (and yours too no doubt) had recovered and then some, and we were well into the Great Recovery!

But the !YIKES! title of this thread is doubtless why I clicked on it.
And why it's over 200 pages by now . . . Our amygdalas are super-stimulated by fear! :P
When subtle or severe changes in market direction stimulate the fight or flight response in the minds of some Bogleheads, the fighters show up to reassure the flighters (thus the beauty of this thread). :happy

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:30 am
by bck63
TheTimeLord wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:42 am
People here need to figure out the source of their stress and angst. My guess is a lot of it stems from spending a large part of each day looking forward to retiring instead of living in the present. Be careful, you might start trying to hang on to your money too tightly and that could lead to behavioral mistakes.
I can relate to this and need to be constantly vigilant about it. I'm not so much concerned about making behavioral mistakes as just not being present and happy in the current moment. Lots of wonderful things around me to be grateful for and happy about. Have to enjoy things while I'm here. As someone once said, you never saw an armored car following a hearse.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:04 pm
by Doom&Gloom
GoldenFinch wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:23 am
Rus In Urbe wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:45 pm
drk

Rus In Urbe wrote: ↑Fri Mar 08, 2019 7:19 am
This thread-title is completely hyperbolic of course. Free Fall? Not yet. But it could happen soon.

Note the timing of the first post.
THANKS for pointing that out, drk!

The original post was written August 2011 on a day when the market skidded down 550 points. I wouldn't really call that "free fall" either. 550 points is sure scary, but I recall being unimpressed by that slump. We bought more. By Aug 2011 our accounts (and yours too no doubt) had recovered and then some, and we were well into the Great Recovery!

But the !YIKES! title of this thread is doubtless why I clicked on it.
And why it's over 200 pages by now . . . Our amygdalas are super-stimulated by fear! :P
When subtle or severe changes in market direction stimulate the fight or flight response in the minds of some Bogleheads, the fighters show up to reassure the flighters (thus the beauty of this thread). :happy
Nice POV!

I agree. The thread is entertaining while being a source of support for some who may need it when they need it most.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:17 pm
by StandingRock
It's interesting to go through these old posts and see the same fears and doubts and complaints over politics etc. that you see today. Also of note that some posts were referring to the "bear market" in mid 2011.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:01 pm
by ruralavalon
StandingRock wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:17 pm
It's interesting to go through these old posts and see the same fears and doubts and complaints over politics etc. that you see today. Also of note that some posts were referring to the "bear market" in mid 2011.
For perspective, since this thread began August 8, 2011 total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 165%, and $10,000 invested then has turned into $26,499.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:57 pm
by gvsucavie03
ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:01 pm
StandingRock wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:17 pm
It's interesting to go through these old posts and see the same fears and doubts and complaints over politics etc. that you see today. Also of note that some posts were referring to the "bear market" in mid 2011.
For perspective, since this thread began August 8, 2011 total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 165%, and $10,000 invested then has turned into $26,499.
"The sky is falling" is a way more exciting topic. Don't cloud it with facts...

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:47 pm
by drk
Rus In Urbe wrote:
Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:45 pm
We bought more. By Aug 2011 our accounts (and yours too no doubt) had recovered and then some, and we were well into the Great Recovery!
Alas, I was a broke recent grad at the time, so my accounts were still pretty empty. I remember fearing the double-dip recession, though.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 3:54 pm
by willthrill81
gvsucavie03 wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:57 pm
ruralavalon wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:01 pm
StandingRock wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 1:17 pm
It's interesting to go through these old posts and see the same fears and doubts and complaints over politics etc. that you see today. Also of note that some posts were referring to the "bear market" in mid 2011.
For perspective, since this thread began August 8, 2011 total return of Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX) is up 165%, and $10,000 invested then has turned into $26,499.
"The sky is falling" is a way more exciting topic. Don't cloud it with facts...
This is evidenced by the high number of posts to this thread when the market hits all time highs.

Pessimists can always find something to complain about.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:01 pm
by RobLyons
I love how after discovering this site and the lazy 3 fund portfolio that all my fears of market volatility have gone away.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:38 pm
by sambb
if one has enough in bonds to last 5 years of expenses, cant one just put all future earnings into stocks and increase allocation to stocks over time, as you will have more than enough? Yes. more swings during freefall, but you have 5 years of bonds as backup, so you can wait 5 years for rebound - ?? should one increase allocation

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sun Mar 10, 2019 6:18 pm
by J G Bankerton
sambb wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:38 pm
if one has enough in bonds to last 5 years of expenses, cant one just put all future earnings into stocks and increase allocation to stocks over time, as you will have more than enough? Yes. more swings during freefall, but you have 5 years of bonds as backup, so you can wait 5 years for rebound - ?? should one increase allocation
I assume you mean actual bonds and not a mutual fund. Bonds can fall in value until they mature so selling bonds may not be an option. What I do is keep a fixed amount in a money market fund, it almost keeps me even with inflation after taxes, and the rest is in stocks. Just be ready for big swings in account balances.

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:41 pm
by yukon50
broadstone wrote:
Tue Aug 25, 2015 5:08 pm
I went 100% cash several weeks ago as I have friends who work the financial markets in Hong Kong who had warned me about the China signs. I thought the worse that happens is I hop out and hop back in if it turned out to be noise about nothing. Well, I haven't bought back in yet. Turns out these financial guys do know things us common folks don't. I think this landslide has some legs.
Broadstone, update? Looks like you went to all cash in Aug 2015. S&P 500 is now at 2,810.

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:41 pm
by yukon50
HomerJ wrote:
Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:55 pm
broadstone wrote:I liquidated to cash 2 months ago. The buying opportunity China will cause could be a once in a decade opportunity, so better start digging up the tins of cash from your backyard (gentle nod to Vegas Vacation movie). :sharebeer
2009 was less than 10 years ago...

This buying opportunity will be greater than that?

By the way, I hope you don't disappear from this site if the markets go back up...

We've had a lot of people claiming they went 100% to cash.... in 2011... in 2012... in 2013.... in2014... And then as the market continued to climb, they just stopped posting for some reason.

Also, please post when you get back into the market... I'll go ahead and let you claim you got out 2 months ago... but please real-time post when you get back in.

Good luck to you!
You called it...he hasn't posted since 2016.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:45 pm
by H-Town
RobLyons wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:01 pm
I love how after discovering this site and the lazy 3 fund portfolio that all my fears of market volatility have gone away.
You either die rich, or live long enough to see half of your assets wiped out :mrgreen:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:48 pm
by TomCat96
Every two weeks when my contributions purchase up shares, all I can think of is "Man I wish I could buy this for cheaper"

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:12 pm
by willthrill81
TomCat96 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:48 pm
Every two weeks when my contributions purchase up shares, all I can think of is "Man I wish I could buy this for cheaper"
Many years ago, I was told that real estate is expensive when you're young and outrageous when you're old.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:23 pm
by Time2Quit
I read somewhere that the 10 year bull market ended in 2018 with the crash and we are in a new bull market.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:26 pm
by willthrill81
Time2Quit wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:23 pm
I read somewhere that the 10 year bull market ended in 2018 with the crash and we are in a new bull market.
The market hasn't yet risen 20% above the lows back in December, so we're still in a bear market.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm
by BeBH65
My understanding is that we only experienced a correction, not a bear and certainly not a crazh. We are still in the bull market. This according to the definition that a bear market starts when the closing price is 20% lower then the top. We did not decend that low in December.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:03 pm
by willthrill81
BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm
My understanding is that we only experienced a correction, not a bear and certainly not a crazh. We are still in the bull market. This according to the definition that a bear market starts when the closing price is 20% lower then the top. We did not decend that low in December.
Yes, the market did drop that much. The closing price of SPY on 9/20/18 was $293.58. On 12/24/18, it was $234.34, just over a 20% drop. Similarly, VTSAX dropped from $73.65 to $58.19, a drop of 21%. By both measures, that's a bear market.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:11 pm
by corn18
Nobody knows nuthin. The market will do whatever it will regardless of labels we apply.

Image

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:16 pm
by TheTimeLord
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:03 pm
BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm
My understanding is that we only experienced a correction, not a bear and certainly not a crazh. We are still in the bull market. This according to the definition that a bear market starts when the closing price is 20% lower then the top. We did not decend that low in December.
Yes, the market did drop that much. The closing price of SPY on 9/20/18 was $293.58. On 12/24/18, it was $234.34, just over a 20% drop. Similarly, VTSAX dropped from $73.65 to $58.19, a drop of 21%. By both measures, that's a bear market.
The S&P 500 came up short of a 20% decline, at -19.778214% using closing prices. You should be using the closing prices of the actual index not the prices of mutual funds and ETFs.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:18 pm
by willthrill81
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:03 pm
BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm
My understanding is that we only experienced a correction, not a bear and certainly not a crazh. We are still in the bull market. This according to the definition that a bear market starts when the closing price is 20% lower then the top. We did not decend that low in December.
Yes, the market did drop that much. The closing price of SPY on 9/20/18 was $293.58. On 12/24/18, it was $234.34, just over a 20% drop. Similarly, VTSAX dropped from $73.65 to $58.19, a drop of 21%. By both measures, that's a bear market.
The S&P 500 came up short of a 20% decline, at -19.778214% using closing prices. You should be using the closing prices of the actual index not the prices of mutual funds and ETFs.
That's a matter of opinion. No one can own the index, only a fund representing it. And VTSAX was definitely below the 20% mark and arguably a better measure of the market than SPY.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:21 pm
by TheTimeLord
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:18 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:03 pm
BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm
My understanding is that we only experienced a correction, not a bear and certainly not a crazh. We are still in the bull market. This according to the definition that a bear market starts when the closing price is 20% lower then the top. We did not decend that low in December.
Yes, the market did drop that much. The closing price of SPY on 9/20/18 was $293.58. On 12/24/18, it was $234.34, just over a 20% drop. Similarly, VTSAX dropped from $73.65 to $58.19, a drop of 21%. By both measures, that's a bear market.
The S&P 500 came up short of a 20% decline, at -19.778214% using closing prices. You should be using the closing prices of the actual index not the prices of mutual funds and ETFs.
That's a matter of opinion. No one can own the index, only a fund representing it. And VTSAX was definitely below the 20% mark and arguably a better measure of the market than SPY.
You think the timing of a dividend distribution might skewed your results?

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:22 pm
by BeBH65

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:25 pm
by willthrill81
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:21 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:18 pm
TheTimeLord wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:16 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:03 pm
BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:54 pm
My understanding is that we only experienced a correction, not a bear and certainly not a crazh. We are still in the bull market. This according to the definition that a bear market starts when the closing price is 20% lower then the top. We did not decend that low in December.
Yes, the market did drop that much. The closing price of SPY on 9/20/18 was $293.58. On 12/24/18, it was $234.34, just over a 20% drop. Similarly, VTSAX dropped from $73.65 to $58.19, a drop of 21%. By both measures, that's a bear market.
The S&P 500 came up short of a 20% decline, at -19.778214% using closing prices. You should be using the closing prices of the actual index not the prices of mutual funds and ETFs.
That's a matter of opinion. No one can own the index, only a fund representing it. And VTSAX was definitely below the 20% mark and arguably a better measure of the market than SPY.
You think the timing of a dividend distribution might skewed your results?
Skewed? Possibly. Invalidated? I don't think so.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:26 pm
by LiterallyIronic
Here we go again. 19.8% or 20%, "bear" or "bull", whatever. Is anyone here making an investing decision based on how long it's been since the most recent "bear market"? I hope not.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:30 pm
by willthrill81
BeBH65 wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:22 pm
A reference https://www.yardeni.com/pub/stmktbullbearmkt.pdf
Like TheTimeLord, they are tracking the S&P 500 index, not any funds representing it. I believe the latter to be more accurate because it is impossible for anyone to own the index directly. Portfolio Visualizer uses actual funds to represent asset classes.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:36 pm
by willthrill81
LiterallyIronic wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:26 pm
Here we go again. 19.8% or 20%, "bear" or "bull", whatever. Is anyone here making an investing decision based on how long it's been since the most recent "bear market"? I hope not.
I certainly hope not as well. Part of the problem I perceive is that many believe that if a bull market goes on long enough, the likelihood of a bear market occurring increases, which is historically false.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:51 am
by Taj_Mahalo
Right. Age alone wouldn't kill an extended business cycle. It's almost like flipping a coin. If you land on heads 10 times in a row you'll start thinking more and more that your next flip has to be tails. No one knows what will happen.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:22 pm
by Earl Lemongrab
It gets into "angels dancing" territory. Some definitions of "bear" require a 20% drop and maintain below that level for a certain period. So sharp correction, bear, eh, it was a drop anyway.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:31 pm
by ruralavalon
Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:22 pm
It gets into "angels dancing" territory. Some definitions of "bear" require a 20% drop and maintain below that level for a certain period. So sharp correction, bear, eh, it was a drop anyway.
I agree.

This is definitely "angels dancing" territory.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 2:07 pm
by RobLyons
H-Town wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:45 pm
RobLyons wrote:
Sun Mar 10, 2019 4:01 pm
I love how after discovering this site and the lazy 3 fund portfolio that all my fears of market volatility have gone away.
You either die rich, or live long enough to see half of your assets wiped out :mrgreen:


:D

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
by walletless
Time for a bump! :moneybag

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:51 pm
by DonIce
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
4.5% off the all time high. Quite the free fall.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:52 pm
by H-Town
walletless wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:49 pm
Time for a bump! :moneybag
3/22/2019: First day of 2019 recession. :beer

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:07 pm
by Admiral
Let's recall that the S&P was up over 1% yesterday <cushioning the blow>.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:21 pm
by GoldenFinch
March 21 = Easy money!
March 22 = Hey! Where did all that money go!

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:41 pm
by corpgator
Surprised it took this long to get back to the front page.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:44 pm
by LiterallyIronic
Maybe it will turn out that MarketTimer was right. I hope so, because I could go for a drop that allows me to buy stocks on the cheap. DOW under 20,000 would be cool (as long as I didn't lose my job).

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:47 pm
by TheTimeLord
Admiral wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:07 pm
Let's recall that the S&P was up over 1% yesterday <cushioning the blow>.
And I was about to announce my retirement, now stocks are in a free fall (won't be shocked if the end near flat though). Guess I need to put that announcement on hold.

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:13 pm
by inbox788
GoldenFinch wrote:
Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:21 pm
March 21 = Easy money!
March 22 = Hey! Where did all that money go!
Sell, sell, sell, then buy, buy, buy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mypHpsSoF8o

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:59 pm
by Earl Lemongrab
Is this an ex-dividend day? I thought someone mentioned that. I don't pay a lot of attention to it.