We need a Leo for the roaring thread!vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:27 amYou should post that on the soaring thread, too.Raycpact wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:26 amyou think you have problems, I'm a Gemini.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:17 amLOL, we've got a new system to time the market! I love it!vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:16 amI'm a Pisces. My portfolio is underwater.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:37 am
Astrology? I've never thought of that before. I'm a Libra, so that means I need to rebalance right now, correct? Or maybe go 50/50?
U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
inverse Forester actually has a good track record.... Problem is his latest prediction is that we bounce back from this correction soon, so it looks like a full fledged crash is coming.Candor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:40 amLots of great options out there. I personally have all my chips on the Inverse Forester Correlation.Nicolas wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:36 amThere’s always the Super Bowl predictor, and it’s coming up. They say it’s never wrong.Candor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:28 amI just did a Google search for "investing based on astrology" and there are 10 pages.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:17 amLOL, we've got a new system to time the market! I love it!
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Cramer is (at best) a best contraindicator for investment decisions. Not really, he has no impact on them.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:02 am I agree with Cramer's opinion this morning. The market needs a capitulation before it returns to it's advance. I'm curious to see how today closes. Will the smart money be content and stay in the market over the weekend? Will it divest late in the session to avoid bad news over the weekend?
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I didn't make that claim about him particularly.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:25 amSo who is Tom Lee? Why is Tom Lee credible? I respect very few people in finance or economics, so I doubt he has any references I would trust, but which "respected" folks think Tom Lee can predict the future?
You know Ritholtz folks like Michael Batnick, Josh Brown, etc? They have a podcast and had him as a guest. That probably means that he's at least not a total charlatan. But I definitely don't think he has the ability to predict anything. So I think your approach is actually better. But personally, it just gives me some hope that the market is not going to crash tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A stopped clock is correct twice a day.RubyTuesday wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:46 amCramer is (at best) a best contraindicator for investment decisions. Not really, he has no impact on them.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:02 am I agree with Cramer's opinion this morning. The market needs a capitulation before it returns to it's advance. I'm curious to see how today closes. Will the smart money be content and stay in the market over the weekend? Will it divest late in the session to avoid bad news over the weekend?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not a 24h clockCaliforniastate wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:49 amA stopped clock is correct twice a day.RubyTuesday wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:46 amCramer is (at best) a best contraindicator for investment decisions. Not really, he has no impact on them.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:02 am I agree with Cramer's opinion this morning. The market needs a capitulation before it returns to it's advance. I'm curious to see how today closes. Will the smart money be content and stay in the market over the weekend? Will it divest late in the session to avoid bad news over the weekend?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No problem, I am a long-term investor and he predicts a bounce back followed by a historic crash. Maybe if I time it correctly I can even participate in both.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:43 aminverse Forester actually has a good track record.... Problem is his latest prediction is that we bounce back from this correction soon, so it looks like a full fledged crash is coming.Candor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:40 amLots of great options out there. I personally have all my chips on the Inverse Forester Correlation.Nicolas wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:36 amThere’s always the Super Bowl predictor, and it’s coming up. They say it’s never wrong.Candor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:28 amI just did a Google search for "investing based on astrology" and there are 10 pages.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:17 am
LOL, we've got a new system to time the market! I love it!
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Afternoon decline in progress...
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
LOL, can't disagree with that.
Sometimes I do wonder if they know inside that they can't predict and just do it anyway because that's what people want to hear - any type of prediction.
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
+1Candor wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:13 amIf you allowed this thread to influence your abandonment of your retirement one iota you simply weren't ready for retirement.djm2001 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:54 amReading this thread spurred me to abandon my recent retirement and resume working again. The silver lining is that now I'll have less time to read the thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Small Caps bleeding continues
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Vanguard's small cap index fund (VB) is up 0.20% today.
- FreddieFIRE
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We knew who you meant. If you're old enough to appreciate Rush, you're old enough to have the occasional brain f*%^.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:37 amLOL... I was thinking of Geddy Lee
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
- firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Gonna need two windows open for free fall and soar on the same day. maybe a third window with Geddy Lee singing "Take Off to the Great White North"
This time is the same
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Lots of Sagittarians, just horsing around.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:40 amWe need a Leo for the roaring thread!vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:27 amYou should post that on the soaring thread, too.Raycpact wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:26 amyou think you have problems, I'm a Gemini.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:17 amLOL, we've got a new system to time the market! I love it!
Ipsa scientia potestas est. Bacon F.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Astrology is strong in this thread.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Time to bump this one up for when we turn red in the next half hour
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm a Taurus, so I should probably stick to the other thread.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:17 amLOL, we've got a new system to time the market! I love it!vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 11:16 amI'm a Pisces. My portfolio is underwater.IowaFarmWife wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:37 amAstrology? I've never thought of that before. I'm a Libra, so that means I need to rebalance right now, correct? Or maybe go 50/50?
Ursa Major isn't a sign, so astrology can't help us with bear markets.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think it's unlikely, but not insane: our brains are wired to invent narratives like that for complex phenomena.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:30 pm This volatility just seem artificially induced - I imagine a bunch of complex trading algos driving the volatility getting some institution/professionals rich. Is that an insane idea?
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This type of volatility is new to me. I’m used to big up or down days, one after the other. But this month, it’s like up 1/2 the day than down and up again. Slow bleed type.
I am used to stock futures predicting the type of day we have most of the time. Now when I look I don’t even care because it’s probably wrong. This is new in my investing career.
I am used to stock futures predicting the type of day we have most of the time. Now when I look I don’t even care because it’s probably wrong. This is new in my investing career.
- princetontiger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is completely normal behavior. Anyone who has long-term objectives will remember 2012, 2016, and 2018. This is one such moment.am wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:39 pm This type of volatility is new to me. I’m used to big up or down days, one after the other. But this month, it’s like up 1/2 the day than down and up again. Slow bleed type.
I am used to stock futures predicting the type of day we have most of the time. Now when I look I don’t even care because it’s probably wrong. This is new in my investing career.
It always feels like the end of the world, but it isn't. If markets crashed, there would be no rate hike. Markets close higher from here by EOY.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I agree with what your saying, normal behavior. Just different. The last few years were so much fun and now this (except mar 2020).princetontiger wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:44 pmThis is completely normal behavior. Anyone who has long-term objectives will remember 2012, 2016, and 2018. This is one such moment.am wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:39 pm This type of volatility is new to me. I’m used to big up or down days, one after the other. But this month, it’s like up 1/2 the day than down and up again. Slow bleed type.
I am used to stock futures predicting the type of day we have most of the time. Now when I look I don’t even care because it’s probably wrong. This is new in my investing career.
It always feels like the end of the world, but it isn't. If markets crashed, there would be no rate hike. Markets close higher from here by EOY.
Doing nothing and staying the course as always. Just a market watcher/observer, kind of like some people watch football games.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ignore stock futures.am wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:39 pm This type of volatility is new to me. I’m used to big up or down days, one after the other. But this month, it’s like up 1/2 the day than down and up again. Slow bleed type.
I am used to stock futures predicting the type of day we have most of the time. Now when I look I don’t even care because it’s probably wrong. This is new in my investing career.
The only thing that matters is the close, ignore what happens in between.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I would expect bears are not going into the weekend short, i would expect the ol end of day covering.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yup, the big covering in progress.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sorry folks, my regular monthly purchase happens today so of course the market is up. Don't worry though - it'll probably go right back to falling on Monday!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That always seemed to happen when we were working, like literally 90% of the time. And we were making rather substantial deferred monthly contributions (over 5,000 a month total from 2 people). Finally, we started having it go into a money market account when it went in as a deposit and we would move it into the market at a time of our choosing. It required us to follow the market a bit, but really think it worked out better. At least we felt a little in control. Of course, when you're retired it's a moot point.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
just move back to the 200 DMA exactly, classic back test? We will see if it pierces through the 200 DMA or not next week. If not then a failed test is considered bad.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, that seems likely. SPX to 4600? This bear market is probably not finished. But then again, the market seldom behaves as I expect.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 3:28 pm just move back to the 200 DMA exactly, classic back test? We will see if it pierces through the 200 DMA or not next week. If not then a failed test is considered bad.
We're incidentally back to where we were last friday.
- willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess you all haven't seen that the S&P 500 was up 2.43% today.
Today's not the day to post in this thread.
Today's not the day to post in this thread.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Of course it's up when I had some reallocations to make. Maybe next week...willthrill81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:19 pm I guess you all haven't seen that the S&P 500 was up 2.43% today.
Today's not the day to post in this thread.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is not normal behavior. See this chart for how rare these types of moves 5 days in a row are. And notice these happen in bear markets.am wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 1:39 pm This type of volatility is new to me. I’m used to big up or down days, one after the other. But this month, it’s like up 1/2 the day than down and up again. Slow bleed type.
I am used to stock futures predicting the type of day we have most of the time. Now when I look I don’t even care because it’s probably wrong. This is new in my investing career.
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/statu ... 6133?s=21
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I removed an off-topic post. As a reminder, this is a "No politics" forum. See: Politics and Religion
Update: Several off-topic posts were removed. See: Non-actionable (Trolling) TopicsIn order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
- Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
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If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
In the piece you quoted, the company's stock price was mentioned, and the company's ability to execute was also mentioned, so on that point, you're partially right.Gufomel wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:08 amI disagree regarding what he is referring to. His comments are specifically referring to the sell-off in stocks.HanSolo wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 7:33 amHe was referring to impact on the company's operations.
He might have a point. In the long run, the results produced by the company might have more influence on the shareholder value than the various ups and downs in interest rates along the way. It's possible...
Sure, the rising rates may not have an impact on his company’s operations, but it absolutely has an impact on today’s valuation of his company’s future operations. That’s where people continually go wrong in understanding the stock market, even highly intelligent CEOs.
But there's no evidence that the CEO doesn't understand the stock market. His salient points were (a) the changes in interest rates won't affect his company's ability to execute, and (b) the short-term downtrend in the stock prices of companies like his is arguably overdone, due to (a).
He's probably right.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Change "not" to "even". All of my stock and bond funds were up on the day.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is interesting info- not actionable in and of itself but hard not to consider quite bearish given other times this event has happened...Pawpatrol wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:34 pm This is not normal behavior. See this chart for how rare these types of moves 5 days in a row are. And notice these happen in bear markets.
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/statu ... 6133?s=21
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It isn't that far off from baseball where they keep/make all kinds of weird stats that have no actual use *shrug*bigbadbuff wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:46 amThis is interesting info- not actionable in and of itself but hard not to consider quite bearish given other times this event has happened...Pawpatrol wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:34 pm This is not normal behavior. See this chart for how rare these types of moves 5 days in a row are. And notice these happen in bear markets.
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/statu ... 6133?s=21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Did something happen with the stock market this week? I've been away since Monday, and when I checked my Vanguard account this morning it was the same as the day I left.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It is a fair critique that if you search for anything you will find meaningless correlations. Multiple days in a row of significant volatility though is directly related to other known established correlations with market returns like the VIX for example. This is not actionable in of itself but it is one data point that when contextualized with other similar data points seems important.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 10:06 amIt isn't that far off from baseball where they keep/make all kinds of weird stats that have no actual use *shrug*bigbadbuff wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 9:46 amThis is interesting info- not actionable in and of itself but hard not to consider quite bearish given other times this event has happened...Pawpatrol wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 5:34 pm This is not normal behavior. See this chart for how rare these types of moves 5 days in a row are. And notice these happen in bear markets.
https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/statu ... 6133?s=21
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
We can still go up forever and no one knows anything but i use these signals to re-evaluate my need, ability and willingness to accept risk.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Someone had to eventually bump this up...so here I am!
Pre-market S&P500 down 0.4%
Pre-market S&P500 down 0.4%
(AGE minus 23%) Bonds | 5% REITs | Balance 80% US (75/25 TSM/SCV) + 20% International (80/20 Developed/Emerging)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They are saying this time is the same…but which same? 1927 or 1929?
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Nasdaq 100 is currently trading positive.gas_balloon wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:34 am Someone had to eventually bump this up...so here I am!
Pre-market S&P500 down 0.4%
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Looks like the Nasdaq is jumping. Big week of earnings again for tech - FB/Google tomorrow, AMZN on Wednesday
- Taj_Mahalo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Warming this up for the late session plunge!