U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Trust me. When the stock market is in free fall, you will know. You won't have to ask.thangngo wrote:Is stock in free fall yet?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Sell everything and put the cash under your mattress.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That would be under the mattress you just sold?MrNewEngland wrote:Sell everything and put the cash under your mattress.
RM
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Those of us with old mattresses do not need lumpier beds.
“There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves.” Will Rogers
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.
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Low correlation between Dow and S+P 500
This is vaguely interesting, though I imagine it doesn't mean much...probably just noise, and a good opportunity to publish an article. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-do ... 2017-07-06
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Cry and buy... I like that!GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.
Pick up a penny and soon you'll have many.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I have a confession to make.
Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest.
Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I have an automatic investment set up for my Roth that goes in every Wednesday...kind of a DCA move.bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.
Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest.
Darnit...missed it by a day this week...
"I've been ionized, but I'm okay now." -Buckaroo Banzai
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This looks like the type of message you'll see right before a 25% dip.bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.
Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
MotoTrojan wrote:This looks like the type of message you'll see right before a 25% dip.bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.
Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest.
Haha.. That would be funny wouldn't it!
It's fine by me, I am accumulating my investments right now. If it weren't for the effect a stock market crash would have on the livelihood of families and retired folk, I'd hope for a 50% drop right now.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well dang, just when I thought we'd have a little dip where I'd do a bit of Roth conversions, total US is back up again. Stupid markets.
(yeah, yeah; I know)
(yeah, yeah; I know)
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I wonder what kind of dip will really hurt and that does worry me. S&P 500 is up what, ~30% from that low we had in February 2016? So any drop that's less than 30% isn't really any more of a buying opportunity than last February was. And anything close to that seems...pretty painful. I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, you know it's coming. It's the nature of the beast.Engineer250 wrote:I wonder what kind of dip will really hurt and that does worry me. S&P 500 is up what, ~30% from that low we had in February 2016? So any drop that's less than 30% isn't really any more of a buying opportunity than last February was. And anything close to that seems...pretty painful. I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.
Factor in a 30% drop (or 50%) in the equity fraction of your holdings, and see what that does to your total portfolio paper worth. If it's too much; if it will make you panic or lose sleep at night, adjust your AA to where you feel you can ride it out.
To me, this is an important part of investing: know that something WILL go down dramatically (stocks, bonds, or both), and do a trial gut check on just how much you can tolerate without panicking and selling at a loss. Then if necessary, adjust your AA to hit that point. Then sit back, buckle up, and prepare yourself mentally. Chances are, it will get better after x period of time. But you do need to process through the emotions ahead of time, so that you are better prepared. Either that, or stay where you are, and figure out a way of lashing yourself to the mast.
The continuous execution of a sound strategy gives you the benefit of the strategy. That's what it's all about. --Rick Ferri
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
If you think about it, even now is a great buying opportunity if the market is higher in the future. We've been on an upward trend for so long now (compared to past volatility) I just think a drop will be a little hard to watch. Anyway, we probably shouldn't be looking.Engineer250 wrote:I wonder what kind of dip will really hurt and that does worry me. S&P 500 is up what, ~30% from that low we had in February 2016? So any drop that's less than 30% isn't really any more of a buying opportunity than last February was. And anything close to that seems...pretty painful. I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".GoldenFinch wrote:The market has been going up for sooooo long. I think a real free fall might feel bad (even though it will be a buying opportunity). I'm sure this thread will help me through... while I cry...and buy.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Interesting theory. The culture does seem less speculative these days. Bogleheads and Mr MM have done a lot to make index investing cool.Uncle Pennybags wrote:There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I don't know, that sounds too much like pre-2007. Weren't people saying all the financial regulations we had adopted post-2000 were going to prevent wild swings in the market etc.?Uncle Pennybags wrote:There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.
I like it, the Odysseus theory of investing. This thread is evidence there's too many of us who want to know if we can resist the call of the sirens, either for the first time or for the Nth time. Or maybe we just want to hear it again.bayview wrote:But you do need to process through the emotions ahead of time, so that you are better prepared. Either that, or stay where you are, and figure out a way of lashing yourself to the mast.
In "shoe shine boy gives stock tips" anecdotes, my 20-something coworker (who is no fool) recently said he is looking to "get into stocks" to make more money.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Not the same, Vanguard's $3,000,000,000,000.00 AUM is 100% voluntary. The smart money will go where smart money goes. Smart money is beyond regulation and shoe shine boys, it flows like water in perfect harmony with the Tao.Engineer250 wrote:I don't know, that sounds too much like pre-2007. Weren't people saying all the financial regulations we had adopted post-2000 were going to prevent wild swings in the market etc.?Uncle Pennybags wrote:There is talk of the buy and hold index funds/ETF investor taking the volatility out of the market. The talk is that's why hedge fund managers can't beat the market, they are trading against each other now. The marks have left the table.Engineer250 wrote:I'll be happy if we can get a 10-15% drop to just get it over with even if it isn't a "great buying opportunity".
Vanguard's three trillion under management is often mentioned.
In "shoe shine boy gives stock tips" anecdotes, my 20-something coworker (who is no fool) recently said he is looking to "get into stocks" to make more money.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
VNQ looks pretty healthy, especially when compared to 2008, yikes!deltaneutral83 wrote:Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes of course, my comment was more tongue in cheek in keeping with the tradition of this thread. 4.5% drop in a month though.MotoTrojan wrote:VNQ looks pretty healthy, especially when compared to 2008, yikes!deltaneutral83 wrote:Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Gotcha, of course. A REAL free fall would be Ethereum, YIKES.deltaneutral83 wrote:Yes of course, my comment was more tongue in cheek in keeping with the tradition of this thread. 4.5% drop in a month though.MotoTrojan wrote:VNQ looks pretty healthy, especially when compared to 2008, yikes!deltaneutral83 wrote:Well, the REIT etf is in a semi free fall. Figured i'd bump for that.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events. Visualize all the terrible things that could happen to take the emotional pain out of them when and if they do. People typically don't like to think about bad things happening to them, but the old stoics claimed it really did help.Uncle Pennybags wrote:I like it, the Odysseus theory of investing. This thread is evidence there's too many of us who want to know if we can resist the call of the sirens, either for the first time or for the Nth time. Or maybe we just want to hear it again.bayview wrote:But you do need to process through the emotions ahead of time, so that you are better prepared. Either that, or stay where you are, and figure out a way of lashing yourself to the mast.
In "shoe shine boy gives stock tips" anecdotes, my 20-something coworker (who is no fool) recently said he is looking to "get into stocks" to make more money.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well, you could market time and change to Tuesdays. . . .dougger5 wrote:I have an automatic investment set up for my Roth that goes in every Wednesday...kind of a DCA move.bligh wrote:I have a confession to make.
Last week I was hoping this week would be terrible because I knew I'd have new money to invest today. Lo and behold, the market took a nice little dip today just when I was ready to invest.
Darnit...missed it by a day this week...
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Like when Bentley the dog was exposed to Ebola? I stayed the course and bought stock to keep my AA in line. Those shares have been very good to me. Today I bought some REITs, gott'a keep the AA in balance. My portfolio flows like water, following the Way.sreynard wrote:The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I fail to understand your response. Perhaps that was a joke?Uncle Pennybags wrote:Like when Bentley the dog was exposed to Ebola? I stayed the course and bought stock to keep my AA in line. Those shares have been very good to me. Today I bought some REITs, gott'a keep the AA in balance. My portfolio flows like water, following the Way.sreynard wrote:The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
Trump Jr. released e-mails.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Somebody bought at 11:29 ET?barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is the gal who sold at that time going to post?sreynard wrote:Somebody bought at 11:29 ET?barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Remember that political discussion is off-limits and will only derail this thread.
"To play the stock market is to play musical chairs under the chord progression of a bid-ask spread."
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It was a news item that amounted to nothing as stocks bounced right back. This is why Mr. Bogle said one should not look at day to day happenings in one's portfolio.barnaclebob wrote:Anyone know what did cause that little dip around 11:30 ET today?
The "breaking news" was not that big a deal and some say it was high speed computer trading algorithms that caused the drop. Humans then took over and bought the faux dip.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I think there's probably some truth to its being helpful.sreynard wrote: The stoic philosophers thought that helped prepare you for dealing with bad events. Visualize all the terrible things that could happen to take the emotional pain out of them when and if they do. People typically don't like to think about bad things happening to them, but the old stoics claimed it really did help.
For a non-finance example, a lot of runners recommend that you visualize a big race. And you try to think about what it might feel like when you're at mile X and you feel miserable and you want to stop, what are you going to do to get past that and keep going? Being ready for it can help a great deal.
In the world of finance, a lot of people on here weren't invested in this last recession and don't know how they will handle a downturn. Or people like me were invested but often "forget" what it felt like. There's a few good documentaries (PBS Inside the Meltdown is one of the good ones) that I re-watch maybe every 2-3 years just to remind myself what it really felt like. Because although I didn't pull my money out, and didn't change my investments, and even increased my 401k contributions a teeny bit, it did not feel like "yay, I can buy stocks at a discount!" it felt like "omg how bad is this going to get, am I going to have a job next year?" I was in a relatively "safe" industry but no one knew where the bleeding was going to stop or how scary it really was. It's good to be reminded so you don't think the next time will be a cakewalk.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Many investing books state that there is usually a big crash during one generation. Looking back at 2000's dot-com crash and 2007-2008 crash, those are still fresh on my mind. The 2007-2008 crash has done some damage to the world economy. The U.S. market tumbled 50% and it would take 3-5 years to recover from it. Are those two crash big enough to scare this generation of investors not to follow the herd and "build castle in the sky"? Is that why the market is cautious and going on such a strong and long bull period since 2008?
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The answer is that some people in this generation will be scared to invest. Some will not be.thangngo wrote:Many investing books state that there is usually a big crash during one generation. Looking back at 2000's dot-com crash and 2007-2008 crash, those are still fresh on my mind. The 2007-2008 crash has done some damage to the world economy. The U.S. market tumbled 50% and it would take 3-5 years to recover from it. Are those two crash big enough to scare this generation of investors not to follow the herd and "build castle in the sky"? Is that why the market is cautious and going on such a strong and long bull period since 2008?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
2000 just seemed like we were blowing off the top - overinvestment leading to a correction, no big deal, even if it was very painful. 2008 scared the bejezus out of me because there were legitimate signs that the entire financial system could go down. My favorite Onion article had Bernanke roaming drunkenly from bar to bar while moaning, "were scr**ed, we're all scr**ed". I'm not sure why, but I still think this is hilarious.
I think it's pretty well established that fear of losses > FOMO (fear of missing out). I think if you're lucky, the FOMO is strong with you (couldn't resist). I think it's FOMO that helped me stay invested in 2000, and while I admit to non-boglehead shenanigans in 2008, helped me stick to my plan in 2008, so that I turned out ok.
I think it's pretty well established that fear of losses > FOMO (fear of missing out). I think if you're lucky, the FOMO is strong with you (couldn't resist). I think it's FOMO that helped me stay invested in 2000, and while I admit to non-boglehead shenanigans in 2008, helped me stick to my plan in 2008, so that I turned out ok.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Market is dropping for a change. Let's get this thread fired up!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
After waking up at 11:30am from my morning nap and checking the market indexes, I started looking for this thread. Someone should have revived it, I was thinking.munemaker wrote:Market is dropping for a change. Let's get this thread fired up!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Not so sure about the 1 per generation theory. I personally experienced 1987, 1991, 2000, 2008 and I am pretty sure I am going to experience at least another 2 -3 more.thangngo wrote:Many investing books state that there is usually a big crash during one generation. Looking back at 2000's dot-com crash and 2007-2008 crash, those are still fresh on my mind. The 2007-2008 crash has done some damage to the world economy. The U.S. market tumbled 50% and it would take 3-5 years to recover from it. Are those two crash big enough to scare this generation of investors not to follow the herd and "build castle in the sky"? Is that why the market is cautious and going on such a strong and long bull period since 2008?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Finally some volatility. It took the threat of nuclear war to bring life to this thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
flyingaway wrote:This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Looking good for my automatic investment on the 15th and the 1st next month
More is ready for a 5% drop.
More is ready for a 5% drop.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Actually, if you want to know why the markets are down so much today, it is because I put a lot of money in yesterday.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
flyingaway wrote:This might be the correction that many people are waiting for. Let us see if they have the courage to jump in.
It just so happens that my managed account at Fidelity was liquidated Monday and the funds( 460k ) are finally available finally available today in my self directed account so I can start my 3 ETF portfolio( 70/30) at Fidelity .On one shoulder there is that little voice that is saying go all in right now dont even think about market timing and on the other shoulder there is a little voice telling me to wait until tomorrow ,monday or tuesday.... because this is the correction we have been waiting for.What to do?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Time in the market is better than timing the market.
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