Post of the thread.Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.
U.S. stocks in free fall
- TomatoTomahto
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That makes sense. Thanks!Uncle Pennybags wrote:Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
This time is different.Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
triceratop wrote:Paul Krugman told me to rebalance out of equities on Tuesday night and then corrected himself within the next day or two. I still have whiplash.livesoft wrote:I know of at least one person who was making the prediction. LOL!jrbdmb wrote:So of course, it turns out that the S&P 500 is up about 4% since the Friday before the election - I might add a turn in the market that everyone was able to analyze after the fact, but nobody was predicting.
But I agree that one cannot predict the future with any certainty. I will predict though that the sun will rise tomorrow in your location.
Note: I of course did not actually take Krugman's advice, as a long-time survivor of reading his words.
This is one reason why I refuse to listen to people based on rank or authority. The nice thing about being an engineer, and hence an "outsider" is that I don't even know who to venerate or kow-tow to in the world of econ and finance, nor do I really care.
Krugman is a smart man who cannot see past the myopia of his own bias. I'll try to extract a nugget or two of value every now and then. But frankly for investing, I have more respect for Cramer pushing buttons making sound effects than Krugman.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I thought it was just Weird Patronizing Adult Business Man bestowing the wisdom of the ages which was pretty orthogonal to anything in the life of the protagonist. It also helped set up the distance between him and his wife...nisiprius wrote:I've wondered, but I don't know how to find out... the more often I see that, the more I wonder whether it's intended to be a stock tip and/or a career recommendation, not for polymers in general a substances, but for GE Plastics in particular. That is, is the line really "There's a great future in plastics?" Or is it "There's a great future in Plastics?"jpelder wrote:
GE Plastics was for a long time one of the biggest and most important of the plastics producers. GE spat it out circa 2008.
If you never seen it, take a look at this industrial movie, The Kingdom of Plastics. In addition to an impressive castle prefiguring Disneyland, the point of the title is that "plastics" is not animal, vegetable, or mineral, but belongs to the fourth kingdom of its own, the Kingdom of Plastics. During the 1950s, early plastics, notably polystyrene, gave "plastic" the reputation for cheapness, cheesiness, and phoniness.
The sewer system is a form of welfare state. |
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- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
There is also a currency play when investing in unhedged foreign stocks. Say one owns 10 shares of EU Amalgamated priced one euro each and the shares stay the same but the dollar rises against the euro; your shares are still worth 10 euros but 10 euros aren't worth the same in dollars as they were yesterday.Tamalak wrote:That makes sense. Thanks!Uncle Pennybags wrote:Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
What about ADRs; foreign stocks being traded on US stock market? Are ADRs unhedged?Uncle Pennybags wrote:There is also a currency play when investing in unhedged foreign stocks. Say one owns 10 shares of EU Amalgamated priced one euro each and the shares stay the same but the dollar rises against the euro; your shares are still worth 10 euros but 10 euros aren't worth the same in dollars as they were yesterday.Tamalak wrote:That makes sense. Thanks!Uncle Pennybags wrote:Higher rates mean a stronger dollar. Everything is priced in dollars even for those people.Tamalak wrote:vti (domestic) is down less than 1%, which is a pretty expected drop given the Fed's very aggressive stance today and how silly the rally has been.
But vxus (international) is down almost 2%! What gives there? Why is international so pathetic that they're affected more by US policies than the US is? Or did something explode over there and I didn't see it?
Edit: just googled it and looks like ADRs are not hedged and they have currency risk.
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people?
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story.Uncle Pennybags wrote:It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The top is going to be "huge".sperry8 wrote:It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story.
I was doing a year end tax tap dance, 0% tax if done right, and moved from regular mutual funds to ETFs. I don't like ETF but after 30 days my short term capital gains are "huge" and I'm stuck in the ETF for a year. Maybe less when this free fall starts.
Last edited by Uncle Pennybags on Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Were you holding a top hat like the Monopoly guy?Uncle Pennybags wrote:I was doing a year end tax tap dance,
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No I wasn't having fun and my head is used up for all of 2017.linenfort wrote:Were you holding a top hat like the Monopoly guy?Uncle Pennybags wrote:I was doing a year end tax tap dance,
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.Uncle Pennybags wrote:No I wasn't having fun and my head is used up for all of 2017.linenfort wrote:Were you holding a top hat like the Monopoly guy?Uncle Pennybags wrote:I was doing a year end tax tap dance,
(Sorry. I couldn't resist.)
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing.GoldenFinch wrote:Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Uncle Pennybags wrote:That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing.GoldenFinch wrote:Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
if I go by your username you're never optimistic.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well Doom&Gloom, it appears that you`re attempting to time the market whereas no one has been able to do that regularly and successfully in history. Do you honestly believe that you are the exception ? I somehow don`t think so but good luck anyway. I bought the index today for the long term as I usually do when funds become available to me. I just buy and let the compounding do its job.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Doom&Gloom was clearly joking. Changing asset allocation when you hit a milestone may be part of reasonable plan. Just shouldn't do it on feelings about the market being overpriced, as that is historically not successful. Mind you, the market DOES "feel" overpriced to me, I just am bogleheaded enough to not do anything about that feeling.selftalk wrote:Well Doom&Gloom, it appears that you`re attempting to time the market whereas no one has been able to do that regularly and successfully in history. Do you honestly believe that you are the exception ? I somehow don`t think so but good luck anyway. I bought the index today for the long term as I usually do when funds become available to me. I just buy and let the compounding do its job.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, I was joking. I thought the icon would eliminate any possible doubt. No changes here because of some arbitrary "milestone."Da5id wrote:Doom&Gloom was clearly joking. Changing asset allocation when you hit a milestone may be part of reasonable plan. Just shouldn't do it on feelings about the market being overpriced, as that is historically not successful. Mind you, the market DOES "feel" overpriced to me, I just am bogleheaded enough to not do anything about that feeling.selftalk wrote:Well Doom&Gloom, it appears that you`re attempting to time the market whereas no one has been able to do that regularly and successfully in history. Do you honestly believe that you are the exception ? I somehow don`t think so but good luck anyway. I bought the index today for the long term as I usually do when funds become available to me. I just buy and let the compounding do its job.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I thought you were warning us to sell now because a massive crash will certainly happen next week because of reaching your milestone.Doom&Gloom wrote:Yes, I was joking. I thought the icon would eliminate any possible doubt. No changes here because of some arbitrary "milestone."
Link to Asking Portfolio Questions
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'd call that an inflation hedge.Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
- Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Ok, you made me look . My portfolio has been in transition from 70/30 to 65/35, but still returned 23.8% for the past Calendar year (I have a fairly heavy allocation to Int SC and EM). It feels good to get some strong returns like that, regardless of the benefits of buying in a low market. It just feels like a long time since the market was on a good strong run, and I'm not in a position to be saving more with college tuition for my boys plus debt that I'm determined to pay down, so I'm liking a little help on the returns side.Uncle Pennybags wrote:That's a 60/40 retired portfolio; the S&P total return for one year is 24.89%. The only way to lose money is to let Jones do the "investing.GoldenFinch wrote:Nice! Your return would make Dave Ramsey proud.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
- Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Just don't blame me if your money goes up in smoke!Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I see that move going up in smoke.Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
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- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You have no Idea. I have the invoices where I paid $17.50 for Siglo VIs in 2008. This is the price for 2016 Siglo VIs.TomCat96 wrote:I'd call that an inflation hedge.Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
Cigars increase 10% a year if aged properly. I'm more of a collector than a smoker and storage isn't that difficult. I should have gone all in with cigars right after the crash of 08.
Doom&Gloom wrote:Just don't blame me if your money goes up in smoke!Uncle Pennybags wrote:I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.Doom&Gloom wrote:I hit a milestone today. Sell everything; thank me later
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall!
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It's coming, sell, sell,sell.Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
We're doomed!Uncle Pennybags wrote:It's coming, sell, sell,sell.Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now?Tamalak wrote:We're doomed!Uncle Pennybags wrote:It's coming, sell, sell,sell.Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Catch the falling soldering iron?Uncle Pennybags wrote:I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now?Tamalak wrote:We're doomed!Uncle Pennybags wrote:It's coming, sell, sell,sell.Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall!
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Catch the falling humidor !Uncle Pennybags wrote:I know about catching the falling knife but what am I supposed to do now?Tamalak wrote:We're doomed!Uncle Pennybags wrote:It's coming, sell, sell,sell.Tamalak wrote:It should be illegal to bump this topic when we're not in freefall!
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I have the invoices where I paid $17.50 for Siglo VIs in 2008. This is the price for 2016 Siglo VIs.Uncle Pennybags wrote: I'm selling all stock and buying cigars; time for a commodity play.
Cigars increase 10% a year if aged properly. I'm more of a collector than a smoker and storage isn't that difficult. I should have gone all in with cigars right after the crash of 08.
...cash and carry....
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what?
Where are the "Cash is King" types?
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.
Where are the "Cash is King" types?
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Why?Uncle Pennybags wrote:The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Bonds are the falling Nerf ball.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Presumably to move towards his target asset allocation?linenfort wrote:Why?Uncle Pennybags wrote:The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.
Anyway, freefall ain't what it used be as was said up thread a bit. But the freefall will come, it always does.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Give that man a cigar. Premium cigars prices are climbing faster than the DOW BTW; not a coincidence IMHO.Da5id wrote:Presumably to move towards his target asset allocation?
DOW 20,000 seem so last month.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Uncle Pennybags wrote:Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what?
Where are the "Cash is King" types?
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.
Sounds like we are getting close to a market top.Uncle Pennybags wrote: DOW 20,000 seem so last month.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Or maybe it will just keep going up...........Leif wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what?
Where are the "Cash is King" types?
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.Sounds like we are getting close to a market top.Uncle Pennybags wrote: DOW 20,000 seem so last month.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
You're both right. We are getting close to DOW 24,733.
Whoops, did I say that out loud?
Whoops, did I say that out loud?
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
It makes no difference to a Boglehead investor. We catch all the tops and bottoms and like a roller coaster we don't get out until the end of the ride.GoldenFinch wrote:Or maybe it will just keep going up...........Leif wrote:Uncle Pennybags wrote:Is this the greatest thread that ever was or what?
Where are the "Cash is King" types?
The sad thing is if I invest now it has to be in bonds.Sounds like we are getting close to a market top.Uncle Pennybags wrote: DOW 20,000 seem so last month.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Lol. There are some people who have a knack from for spotting tops. Your friend is certainly one of them.sperry8 wrote:It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story.Uncle Pennybags wrote:It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people?
- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The Fed raises rates and both bonds and securities take off.aqan wrote:Lol. There are some people who have a knack from for spotting tops. Your friend is certainly one of them.sperry8 wrote:It's just the opposite... the top is near. I have a friend who is all cash and has been for years. He is now putting money in the market for the first time. True story.Uncle Pennybags wrote:It appears we are in a reverse free fall. Where are the all cash people?
I have no idea what's going on but my short term gains are "HUGE".
The eventual 10% correction is also going to be huge. Good thing I never look.
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- Uncle Pennybags
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I KNEW IT; ALL CASH THIS IS THE CRASH.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I decided it would only be the real thing when Uncle PennyBags weighed in on the matter.Uncle Pennybags wrote:I KNEW IT; ALL CASH THIS IS THE CRASH.
I did put in the Roth money that I should have put in on January first, just to guarantee the crash would continue. LOL!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
"Things are more like they are now than they ever were before." -- Dwight D. EisenhowerFillorKill wrote:This time is different.Doom&Gloom wrote:Freefall ain't what it used to be.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
+1GoldenFinch wrote: I did put in the Roth money that I should have put in on January first, just to guarantee the crash would continue. LOL!