U.S. stocks in free fall

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balbrec2
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by balbrec2 »

Its just business as usual. Mr. Market trying to find his way to where he wants to be!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by RetiredAL »

I normally don't even open this thread. IMO, it's a waste.

Here's why: Since the time of the first post, the value an SP500 investment has risen to about 245% of the original.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Cycle »

I'm just hoping for a much bigger drop by Wednesday, my weekly automatic buy day of vtiax and vtsax
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by nisiprius »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:30 amWow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
The news that stocks were up significantly last week?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by goblue100 »

RetiredAL wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:28 pm I normally don't even open this thread. IMO, it's a waste.

Here's why: Since the time of the first post, the value an SP500 investment has risen to about 245% of the original.
Since the OP references the Dow Jones:
Low for 2011 was 11,240.26
Close today was 25,387.18

Some free fall!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by vwgrrc »

RetiredAL wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:28 pm I normally don't even open this thread. IMO, it's a waste.

Here's why: Since the time of the first post, the value an SP500 investment has risen to about 245% of the original.
Agree. But I used this thread as a buying signal and it works pretty well. Whenever it hovers around the top 10 of this forum, it's time to buy more :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF »

Market is undergoing a post-election recount.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by fortfun »

Earl Lemongrab wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:06 pm
fortfun wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:01 pm Seems like this has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone I know says the market is at its peak and it has to correct.
Not everyone you know says that. Many of the people here don't, for instance.
I should clarify, not including Bogleheads :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by tadamsmar »

fortfun wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:03 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:06 pm
fortfun wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:01 pm Seems like this has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone I know says the market is at its peak and it has to correct.
Not everyone you know says that. Many of the people here don't, for instance.
I should clarify, not including Bogleheads :)
Does everyone know that the market has been twice as high by the PE metric?

It does not have to correct. Not sure how likely a correction (10% down from peak) is in the next year or over any time frame.

It was at it's historical peak in September.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen »

VictoriaF wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 5:55 pm Market is undergoing a post-election recount.

Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by roymeo »

tadamsmar wrote: Tue Nov 13, 2018 7:18 am Does everyone know that the market has been twice as high by the PE metric?
No, but everybody knows the dice are loaded.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen »

ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled

:beer
So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingo :-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ReformedSpender »

retiringwhen wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:07 pm So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingo :-)
Haha, I can assist with the definition. The rest, however, is on you

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gap_(chart_pattern)
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen »

ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:14 pm
retiringwhen wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:07 pm So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingo :-)
Haha, I can assist with the definition. The rest, however, is on you

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gap_(chart_pattern)
Okay, now it is time start editing my IPS...... I have to figure out just what I'll do for the next runaway gap.... :greedy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by dspencer »

ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
Is there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon »

dspencer wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
Is there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.
That is funny :D :D .

I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

Market down another 200 points today so far. Dare we say "U.S. stocks in slowfall"?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by alfaspider »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:52 am Market down another 200 points today so far. Dare we say "U.S. stocks in slowfall"?
VTI is flat as of this moment. The Dow is pretty much irrelevant.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Riley15 »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:58 am I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
Well yes it is but only until stocks go back up 11%. When they move up another 11%, then it's a -11% loss.
Last edited by Riley15 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by SEAworld9 »

alfaspider wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:50 am
CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:52 am Market down another 200 points today so far. Dare we say "U.S. stocks in slowfall"?
VTI is flat as of this moment. The Dow is pretty much irrelevant.
aaaand VTI now positive .17%
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by marcopolo »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:58 am I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
Are stocks even down 11% from their peak.
SP500 peak was at 2940. Trading at around 2700. Down 8.2%
VTI peak at 152. Trading at around 138.5. Down 8.8%

So, even if you happened to time your exit at the exact peak, are you sure it is 11%? Maybe you hold stock with different weighting
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldcomputerguy »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:52 am Market down another 200 points today so far. Dare we say "U.S. stocks in slowfall"?
Wouldn't break my heart. I just submitted an order to put some play money into emerging markets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF »

ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am
dspencer wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
Is there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.
That is funny :D :D .

I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by VictoriaF »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:52 am Market down another 200 points today so far. Dare we say "U.S. stocks in slowfall"?
The antonym of "free" is not "slow." That would be "obstructed fall."

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

marcopolo wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:09 am
CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:58 am I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
Are stocks even down 11% from their peak.
SP500 peak was at 2940. Trading at around 2700. Down 8.2%
VTI peak at 152. Trading at around 138.5. Down 8.8%

So, even if you happened to time your exit at the exact peak, are you sure it is 11%? Maybe you hold stock with different weighting
I was tilting to SCV, U.S. and Foreign. Both down over 11%. Not everybody invests in LCG!
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:46 am
I was tilting to SCV, U.S. and Foreign. Both down over 11%. Not everybody invests in LCG!
I just TLHd part of my International into a Development Markets only fund just in time for Emerging Markets to pop! I still have a good part of the other funds in total international (VTIAX and VFWAX).
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by marcopolo »

CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:46 am
marcopolo wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:09 am
CULater wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:58 am I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
Are stocks even down 11% from their peak.
SP500 peak was at 2940. Trading at around 2700. Down 8.2%
VTI peak at 152. Trading at around 138.5. Down 8.8%

So, even if you happened to time your exit at the exact peak, are you sure it is 11%? Maybe you hold stock with different weighting
I was tilting to SCV, U.S. and Foreign. Both down over 11%. Not everybody invests in LCG!
Got it.
I have some SCV and Foreign tilt as well. I have not really computed my losses from the peak. I guess it could be 11%. I don't know enough to know what to do with that information.

Are you out completely, or just trimming back a little to get to a more comfortable asset allocation?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab »

VictoriaF wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 am
ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.
I was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by JW-Retired »

Earl Lemongrab wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:45 pm
VictoriaF wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 am
ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.
I was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.
TA = "technical analysis"?? I believe that a TA was a grad student "teaching assistant" back then. As least it was when I was an Engineering "RA" (research assistant) in the 70s.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon »

Earl Lemongrab wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:45 pm
VictoriaF wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 am
ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.
I was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.
How about the element Tantalum?

Or Temperature, Ambient?

There are dozens of possibilities for TA.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Earl Lemongrab »

JW-Retired wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:05 pm
Earl Lemongrab wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:45 pm
VictoriaF wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 am
ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.
I was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.
TA = "technical analysis"?? I believe that a TA was a grad student "teaching assistant" back then. As least it was when I was an Engineering "RA" (research assistant) in the 70s.
Yes, it was.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ricchan »

I imagine most people who went through college would associate TA with teaching assistant, since that's who you would interact with most of the time when your professors weren't available, not to mention the precepts / recitations they normally lead.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey »

VictoriaF wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 am
ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am
dspencer wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
Is there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.
That is funny :D :D .

I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.

Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ray.james »

I was RA that funded mine all through.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by willthrill81 »

oldzey wrote: Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:58 pm
VictoriaF wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 am
ruralavalon wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am
dspencer wrote: Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 am
ReformedSpender wrote: Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm

The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.

Respect the volatility

:beer
Is there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.
That is funny :D :D .

I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.

Victoria
I was a Teaching Assistant for many years, which helped fund my graduate studies. :thumbsup

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Of course, that ignores the fact that most/all of the TA's tuition and fees are waived as well, which can be very significant. And, of course, the students are going into that knowing full well that the stipends are low. We lived for four years on about that much income annually and actually saved enough to pay for a reward trip to Hawaii when we graduated.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by oldzey »

I actually did some investing while I was in grad school (besides being a TA, I was also a RA [Research Assistant] and an adjunct instructor).

The freefall of U.S. stocks from 2008-2009 was painful. It taught me that (as a grad student) I should have held cash instead of stocks. :oops:

And yes, I did receive tuition/fee waivers as a part of my TA and RA stipends. I certainly don't miss the pay from those days...

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Ricchan »

Stipends are also received while you're doing your normal graduate course work. Sure, you may end up doing a lot of mundane tasks for your advisor and end up feeling like a lab monkey, but you are still gaining experience that constitutes part of your "education." Because of that, I always saw stipends as "free money" and so wouldn't necessarily equate that with income from a part time job where you are trading your time for mostly just money and no additional personal gain.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by LadyGeek »

Please stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CaliJim »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:52 am Please stay on-topic.
:oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Silk McCue »

CaliJim wrote: Sun Nov 18, 2018 7:05 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:52 am Please stay on-topic.
Ummm what was the topic? That was 150 pages ago. When arrives late to a cocktail party, should one ask what the first conversation of the evening was about?
One should listen when the site admin provides guidance/direction. One should private message them if they disagree or have questions.

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by ruralavalon »

The S&P 500 index is down 1.16% so far today :( .
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by retiringwhen »

ruralavalon wrote: Mon Nov 19, 2018 10:28 am The S&P 500 index is down 1.16% so far today :( .
But the VXUS is only down about half that! Keep the International in your asset allocation!

BTW, LadyGeek, we are back on topic now, falling prices and arguing about how much International to have in our accounts! :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by robertmcd »

More concerning to me is that treasury yields have dropped significantly. 2 yr yield down to 2.78 from high of 2.96. That is a significant drop in a short period of time and to me shows that the flight to safety has begun and the Fed hikes are getting priced out.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

Down over 400 points so far today. Glad I bailed out near the peak. Sometimes you get lucky. Now I'm waiting for the 20% off sale to buy back in. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by Silk McCue »

CULater wrote: Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:36 am Down over 400 points so far today. Glad I bailed out near the peak. Sometimes you get lucky. Now I'm waiting for the 20% off sale to buy back in. :sharebeer
Unfortunately it's impossible to tell if you are lucky or not. Bailing out only points to the fact that you had not established the proper asset allocation and financial plan that met your need, willingness and ability to take risk. That is antithetical to a Boglehead's strategy.

I certainly hope you get lucky.

Cheers
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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by CULater »

Silk McCue wrote: Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:49 am
CULater wrote: Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:36 am Down over 400 points so far today. Glad I bailed out near the peak. Sometimes you get lucky. Now I'm waiting for the 20% off sale to buy back in. :sharebeer
Unfortunately it's impossible to tell if you are lucky or not. Bailing out only points to the fact that you had not established the proper asset allocation and financial plan that met your need, willingness and ability to take risk. That is antithetical to a Boglehead's strategy.

I certainly hope you get lucky.

Cheers
Yes, probably right. I think my risk tolerance level is pretty close to zero. Actually, I can tolerate equity risk but it's the losing money part that freaks me out. I ought to just accept that and let the rest of you guys play on...
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
WhiteMaxima
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Post by WhiteMaxima »

CULater wrote: Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:36 am Down over 400 points so far today. Glad I bailed out near the peak. Sometimes you get lucky. Now I'm waiting for the 20% off sale to buy back in. :sharebeer
I re-balanced today into the market. time the market :P :twisted:
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