U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Its just business as usual. Mr. Market trying to find his way to where he wants to be!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I normally don't even open this thread. IMO, it's a waste.
Here's why: Since the time of the first post, the value an SP500 investment has risen to about 245% of the original.
Here's why: Since the time of the first post, the value an SP500 investment has risen to about 245% of the original.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I'm just hoping for a much bigger drop by Wednesday, my weekly automatic buy day of vtiax and vtsax
Never look back unless you are planning to go that way
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The news that stocks were up significantly last week?willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:30 amWow, stocks are down significantly today. Any idea what 'big news' is causing this?
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Since the OP references the Dow Jones:
Low for 2011 was 11,240.26
Close today was 25,387.18
Some free fall!
"Confusion has its cost" - Crosby, Stills and Nash
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Agree. But I used this thread as a buying signal and it works pretty well. Whenever it hovers around the top 10 of this forum, it's time to buy more
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Market is undergoing a post-election recount.
Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I should clarify, not including BogleheadsEarl Lemongrab wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:06 pmNot everyone you know says that. Many of the people here don't, for instance.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Does everyone know that the market has been twice as high by the PE metric?fortfun wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:03 pmI should clarify, not including BogleheadsEarl Lemongrab wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:06 pmNot everyone you know says that. Many of the people here don't, for instance.
It does not have to correct. Not sure how likely a correction (10% down from peak) is in the next year or over any time frame.
It was at it's historical peak in September.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
No, but everybody knows the dice are loaded.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
Respect the volatility
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingoReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pmThe S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filledReformedSpender wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Haha, I can assist with the definition. The rest, however, is on youretiringwhen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:07 pm So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingo
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gap_(chart_pattern)
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Okay, now it is time start editing my IPS...... I have to figure out just what I'll do for the next runaway gap....ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:14 pmHaha, I can assist with the definition. The rest, however, is on youretiringwhen wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 2:07 pm So what is a gap? I am thinking of changing my entire philosophy to using TA / gypsies for my investing strategy, but I need to know the lingo
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gap.asp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gap_(chart_pattern)
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Is there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pmThe S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
Respect the volatility
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I got out of stocks 11% ago. Decided I had won the game and it was getting a little hairy to keep playing. Hey, isn't that like a +11% return in just a few weeks? Pretty good for me.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
That is funny .dspencer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 amIs there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pmThe S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
Respect the volatility
I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Market down another 200 points today so far. Dare we say "U.S. stocks in slowfall"?
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Well yes it is but only until stocks go back up 11%. When they move up another 11%, then it's a -11% loss.
Last edited by Riley15 on Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
aaaand VTI now positive .17%alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:50 amVTI is flat as of this moment. The Dow is pretty much irrelevant.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Are stocks even down 11% from their peak.
SP500 peak was at 2940. Trading at around 2700. Down 8.2%
VTI peak at 152. Trading at around 138.5. Down 8.8%
So, even if you happened to time your exit at the exact peak, are you sure it is 11%? Maybe you hold stock with different weighting
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Wouldn't break my heart. I just submitted an order to put some play money into emerging markets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 amThat is funny .dspencer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 amIs there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pmThe S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
Respect the volatility
I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
Victoria
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Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. |
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The antonym of "free" is not "slow." That would be "obstructed fall."
Victoria
Inventor of the Bogleheads Secret Handshake |
Winner of the 2015 Boglehead Contest. |
Every joke has a bit of a joke. ... The rest is the truth. (Marat F)
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was tilting to SCV, U.S. and Foreign. Both down over 11%. Not everybody invests in LCG!marcopolo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:09 amAre stocks even down 11% from their peak.
SP500 peak was at 2940. Trading at around 2700. Down 8.2%
VTI peak at 152. Trading at around 138.5. Down 8.8%
So, even if you happened to time your exit at the exact peak, are you sure it is 11%? Maybe you hold stock with different weighting
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I just TLHd part of my International into a Development Markets only fund just in time for Emerging Markets to pop! I still have a good part of the other funds in total international (VTIAX and VFWAX).
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Got it.CULater wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:46 amI was tilting to SCV, U.S. and Foreign. Both down over 11%. Not everybody invests in LCG!marcopolo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:09 amAre stocks even down 11% from their peak.
SP500 peak was at 2940. Trading at around 2700. Down 8.2%
VTI peak at 152. Trading at around 138.5. Down 8.8%
So, even if you happened to time your exit at the exact peak, are you sure it is 11%? Maybe you hold stock with different weighting
I have some SCV and Foreign tilt as well. I have not really computed my losses from the peak. I guess it could be 11%. I don't know enough to know what to do with that information.
Are you out completely, or just trimming back a little to get to a more comfortable asset allocation?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 amI was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
TA = "technical analysis"?? I believe that a TA was a grad student "teaching assistant" back then. As least it was when I was an Engineering "RA" (research assistant) in the 70s.Earl Lemongrab wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:45 pmI was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 amI was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
How about the element Tantalum?Earl Lemongrab wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:45 pmI was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 amI was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
Or Temperature, Ambient?
There are dozens of possibilities for TA.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, it was.JW-Retired wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:05 pmTA = "technical analysis"?? I believe that a TA was a grad student "teaching assistant" back then. As least it was when I was an Engineering "RA" (research assistant) in the 70s.Earl Lemongrab wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:45 pmI was a Physics TA when I was a grad student back in the 80s.VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 amI was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 am I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I imagine most people who went through college would associate TA with teaching assistant, since that's who you would interact with most of the time when your professors weren't available, not to mention the precepts / recitations they normally lead.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was a Teaching Assistant for many years, which helped fund my graduate studies.VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 amI was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 amThat is funny .dspencer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 amIs there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pmThe S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:39 am
For those that follow TA, we filled one of two gap-ups from early November. Another one exist just below the 2700 level on the S&P.
Respect the volatility
I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I was RA that funded mine all through.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Of course, that ignores the fact that most/all of the TA's tuition and fees are waived as well, which can be very significant. And, of course, the students are going into that knowing full well that the stipends are low. We lived for four years on about that much income annually and actually saved enough to pay for a reward trip to Hawaii when we graduated.oldzey wrote: ↑Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:58 pmI was a Teaching Assistant for many years, which helped fund my graduate studies.VictoriaF wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 11:39 amI was a TA in grad school. There must be other TAs among Bogleheads.ruralavalon wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:28 amThat is funny .dspencer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:55 amIs there reason to believe that many Bogleheads follow TA? I understand that not everyone here is a clone of Bogle who follows his every word. Still, this seems akin to discussing cocktail recipes at an AA meeting.ReformedSpender wrote: ↑Wed Nov 14, 2018 1:59 pm
The S&P was down over 1% intraday, however, gap under 2700 was filled.
Respect the volatility
I had to Google "TA" to learn that it refers to technical analysis.
Victoria
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
I actually did some investing while I was in grad school (besides being a TA, I was also a RA [Research Assistant] and an adjunct instructor).
The freefall of U.S. stocks from 2008-2009 was painful. It taught me that (as a grad student) I should have held cash instead of stocks.
And yes, I did receive tuition/fee waivers as a part of my TA and RA stipends. I certainly don't miss the pay from those days...
The freefall of U.S. stocks from 2008-2009 was painful. It taught me that (as a grad student) I should have held cash instead of stocks.
And yes, I did receive tuition/fee waivers as a part of my TA and RA stipends. I certainly don't miss the pay from those days...
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Stipends are also received while you're doing your normal graduate course work. Sure, you may end up doing a lot of mundane tasks for your advisor and end up feeling like a lab monkey, but you are still gaining experience that constitutes part of your "education." Because of that, I always saw stipends as "free money" and so wouldn't necessarily equate that with income from a part time job where you are trading your time for mostly just money and no additional personal gain.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Please stay on-topic.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Last edited by CaliJim on Sat Nov 24, 2018 7:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
One should listen when the site admin provides guidance/direction. One should private message them if they disagree or have questions.
Cheers
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
The S&P 500 index is down 1.16% so far today .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
But the VXUS is only down about half that! Keep the International in your asset allocation!
BTW, LadyGeek, we are back on topic now, falling prices and arguing about how much International to have in our accounts!
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
More concerning to me is that treasury yields have dropped significantly. 2 yr yield down to 2.78 from high of 2.96. That is a significant drop in a short period of time and to me shows that the flight to safety has begun and the Fed hikes are getting priced out.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Down over 400 points so far today. Glad I bailed out near the peak. Sometimes you get lucky. Now I'm waiting for the 20% off sale to buy back in.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Unfortunately it's impossible to tell if you are lucky or not. Bailing out only points to the fact that you had not established the proper asset allocation and financial plan that met your need, willingness and ability to take risk. That is antithetical to a Boglehead's strategy.
I certainly hope you get lucky.
Cheers
Re: U.S. stocks in freefall
Yes, probably right. I think my risk tolerance level is pretty close to zero. Actually, I can tolerate equity risk but it's the losing money part that freaks me out. I ought to just accept that and let the rest of you guys play on...Silk McCue wrote: ↑Mon Nov 19, 2018 11:49 amUnfortunately it's impossible to tell if you are lucky or not. Bailing out only points to the fact that you had not established the proper asset allocation and financial plan that met your need, willingness and ability to take risk. That is antithetical to a Boglehead's strategy.
I certainly hope you get lucky.
Cheers
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
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