Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:40 pm
We don't have an international free fall thread, but I'm seeing international down more than 3% after hours according to my "VXUS" search on the old Googley doogly.
Somebody needs to step up and start such a thread.
Just think, if you start that thread, your user name could be up there along with the immortal "Goldstar" and "Lbill" who started the US "soaring" and "free fall" threads.
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:40 pm
We don't have an international free fall thread, but I'm seeing international down more than 3% after hours according to my "VXUS" search on the old Googley doogly.
Somebody needs to step up and start such a thread.
Just think, if you start that thread, your user name could be up there along with the immortal "Goldstar" and "Lbill" who started the US "soaring" and "free fall" threads.
Or it could flop. Our international soaring thread hasn't gained much traction despite being at multiyear highs earlier this week! I'm not about to go down in Bogleheads history as a bust!
texasfight wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:40 pm
Small caps are in the largest bubble I have personally ever witnessed.
Small Caps tend to do the best in the recovery phase which is right now, in aggregate Small Caps still have a lot of ground to make up since 2018 since they have lagged a lot... and saying that Small Caps is the largest bubble is downright laughable when you have several components of the tech heavy S&P 500 running ridiculous PE ratios.
texasfight wrote: ↑Fri Jan 15, 2021 1:40 pm
Small caps are in the largest bubble I have personally ever witnessed.
Small Caps tend to do the best in the recovery phase which is right now, in aggregate Small Caps still have a lot of ground to make up since 2018 since they have lagged a lot... and saying that Small Caps is the largest bubble is downright laughable when you have several components of the tech heavy S&P 500 running ridiculous PE ratios.
Small Caps have way more to run and will outperform this year is my prediction!
I get it. Just like value/cyclicals/high beta. Thing is that people assume IWM is value, when it is has the highest FWD PE, huge amount of money losing companies, etc. You can argue multiple expansion for companies like facebook, apple, amazon, microsoft (these companies have positive earnings yields and strong moats so they can be viewed as a perpetual TIPS bond with a positive real yield (current earnings yield) as long as earning keep up with inflation. Small caps have lagged for a reason, just like value, and the factor based investors are clueless when it come to global macro and long term cycles. But we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc.
texasfight wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:14 pmBut we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc.
Fair enough, when I refer to Small Caps I was referring to high quality small caps i.e. SP600 which is what I hold. I am not a big fan of the Russell 2000 either.
texasfight wrote: ↑Mon Jan 18, 2021 12:14 pmBut we will see a wipeout in Russell 2000. These companies don't have earnings that will keep up with inflation. Small cap value is a slightly different story (lots of regional banks, actual earnings leverage for the recovery, etc.
Fair enough, when I refer to Small Caps I was referring to high quality small caps i.e. SP600 which is what I hold. I am not a big fan of the Russell 2000 either.
airlines: While vaccine rollouts were stoking forecasts for a 90% rebound in Europe’s leisure market just a month ago, fast-spreading new viral strains are prompting people to shelve vacation plans at what should be the busiest time for bookings.
Interesting article I ran across discussing airlines/Europe. Wonder if this sentiment will trickle here...
Hopefully not another lost summer in 2021 accompanied by airline bankruptcies. Buffet got out of all airlines last Spring. Guessing theres some experience at work in that decision.
Looks like "double spend" did not occur though. A generational opportunity unfolding in front of our very eyes.
I just saw that too, particularly every large BTC exchanges are releasing statement/analysis on the so called "double spend" issue. Someone can get in and buy some BTC on a 20% discount
Yes please, a 10% drop in S&P, maybe 15-20% in Nasdaq, and bitcoin to $20k. I need to do some rebalancing plus large amounts of new money coming every paycheck, so I wouldn’t mind a healthy correction.
It seems plausible to me that stocks are stalling mostly because the rollout of vaccines is not going as well as anticipated. But no one knows for sure. There are at least as many reasons as there are market participants.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:37 am
Most likely due to Boeing's results, not the GME pump.
lol who cares about that and try to look at the bigger picture. This episode, (even if it'll ultimately be short-lived) poured cold water over the faces of those who forgot what risk, fair value, and reality are (e.g. "Ms. Market" posters and institutional investors who have a permanent guardian angel in CB intervention when things don't go their way).
Let's hope this episode to be the first chapter or forward in the story where markets go back to functioning as they're intended to function -- and not 'stocks only go up, and if they don't the Fed will bail out my boomer-pension.' Forester, I'm with you!!!
lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:37 am
Most likely due to Boeing's results, not the GME pump.
lol who cares about that and try to look at the bigger picture. This episode, (even if it'll ultimately be short-lived) poured cold water over the faces of those who forgot what risk, fair value, and reality are (e.g. "Ms. Market" posters and institutional investors who have a permanent guardian angel in CB intervention when things don't go their way).
Let's hope this episode to be the first chapter or forward in the story where markets go back to functioning as they're intended to function -- and not 'stocks only go up, and if they don't the Fed will bail out my boomer-pension.' Forester, I'm with you!!!
lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 7:56 am
Gotcha. Hello there "Bear".
Forester will enjoy your company.
Good morning to you too, friend. And to be clear, I do not hold any short or put positions nor have I touched GME. I am only a bear in sentiment only, not necessarily positionally (although maybe some may disagree because I'm not in 3X Bull ETFs).
But seriously, if there's anyone on this forum who is unable to appreciate what's going on right now, in real-time, and the potential ramifications of this week's actions, I don't know what to say! Back to RSS for me, see ya later!
1) people hedged their short gme/bbby/amc/bb/other mall retailer with long IWM (russell 2000) and this is unwinding. You will know this is true when the iwm rallies on the open. Notice how iwm and gme are trading inverse of each other in premarket and yesterday.
2) short sellers are using futures to try to cover as much of their shorts as possible as they dont want gme to happen to them.
Buy and hold here but if im right, this will culminate in the coming days/weeks with the parabolic blowoff top everyone has been waiting for as there will be no one left to buy once shorts cover. Too many top callers for this to be the end.
Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:37 am
Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
JoMoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:37 am
Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
Russell 2000 futures down 2.5%
Russell 2000 isn't really representative of the stock market, it's maybe 10% of the market. The Dow 30 is more representative of broad stocks than the Russell 2000.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
In Fed we trust 
