U.S. stocks in free fall

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jebmke
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jebmke »

absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me.
That's one of the risks of dividends. Sometimes companies start making irrational choices. Selling assets, borrowing excessively, cutting R&D, plant maintenance ..... all to save the dividend.
When you discover that you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
You must have a very shallow bathtub.

Today barely qualified as a blip.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by finite_difference »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:41 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
2-3%? How so?
Maybe a NKLA investor.
It’s not exactly a confidence builder when the CEO resigns due to allegations of fraud. Is NKLA included in VTSAX?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:09 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
You must have a very shallow bathtub.

Today barely qualified as a blip.
Perhaps their portfolio is so large that a 2-3% drop actually breaks the skin.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Samosa22 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:41 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
2-3%? How so?
Maybe a NKLA investor.
Not the OP, but I did buy 100 shares of NKLA at ~$52.5/share. Still can't decide should I sell them and save whatever is left or just sit back to see my investment go to zero, with a chance that some day the share price may go back to my purchase price.
Lesson learned from 2008 financial crisis: "In the fury of the final hour, all correlations went to 1".
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me. I'm not a stock picker, but if I was then I wouldn't be a fan of XOM.
Yeah, it's wild stuff. The problem for management is if they cut the dividend, the stock will be thrown out of a lot of dividend aristocrats / achievers indices.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

jebmke wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:03 pm
absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me.
That's one of the risks of dividends. Sometimes companies start making irrational choices. Selling assets, borrowing excessively, cutting R&D, plant maintenance ..... all to save the dividend.
Nicely stated, and worth remembering for the next time someone comes on here asking about pesky dividend stocks. Gonna slap them across the face with your post.

#dividend stocks risk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by teerup »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:17 pm
jebmke wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:03 pm
absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me.
That's one of the risks of dividends. Sometimes companies start making irrational choices. Selling assets, borrowing excessively, cutting R&D, plant maintenance ..... all to save the dividend.
Nicely stated, and worth remembering for the next time someone comes on here asking about pesky dividend stocks. Gonna slap them across the face with your post.
Some folks are heavily invested in stock from the company they retired from or other companies, both inside & outside their pension and retirement account holdings. They rely on those dividends for income.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

teerup wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:25 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:17 pm
jebmke wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:03 pm
absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me.
That's one of the risks of dividends. Sometimes companies start making irrational choices. Selling assets, borrowing excessively, cutting R&D, plant maintenance ..... all to save the dividend.
Nicely stated, and worth remembering for the next time someone comes on here asking about pesky dividend stocks. Gonna slap them across the face with your post.
Some folks are heavily invested in stock from the company they retired from or other companies, both inside & outside their pension and retirement account holdings. They rely on those dividends for income.
Perhaps I was a tad too facetious with my post, and I do apologize if I was. However...

First, I find it unfortunate that anyone should be overly invested in a single stock. I speak from personal experience, having known a couple. I sure can't see myself not wanting to try and dissuade others from doing such.

If we're talking about retirees investing in something like a dividend stock fund, that, of course, is much better, but they should still be acquainted with the aforementioned risks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

Samosa22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:58 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:41 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
2-3%? How so?
Maybe a NKLA investor.
Not the OP, but I did buy 100 shares of NKLA at ~$52.5/share. Still can't decide should I sell them and save whatever is left or just sit back to see my investment go to zero, with a chance that some day the share price may go back to my purchase price.
Bummer. Hard to say at this point, but either way I would consider this some tuition.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

Samosa22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:58 pm Not the OP, but I did buy 100 shares of NKLA at ~$52.5/share. Still can't decide should I sell them and save whatever is left or just sit back to see my investment go to zero, with a chance that some day the share price may go back to my purchase price.
Assuming it goes to zero from here, would losing the $2k hurt? If so, kiss it goodbye tomorrow. If not, you might as well keep it, but ignore your purchase price to avoid behavioral errors. Given the GM investment, the incentives are in place to make the company work out.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bog007 »

200 day next 3100
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corp_sharecropper »

teerup wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:25 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 5:17 pm
jebmke wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:03 pm
absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me.
That's one of the risks of dividends. Sometimes companies start making irrational choices. Selling assets, borrowing excessively, cutting R&D, plant maintenance ..... all to save the dividend.
Nicely stated, and worth remembering for the next time someone comes on here asking about pesky dividend stocks. Gonna slap them across the face with your post.
Some folks are heavily invested in stock from the company they retired from or other companies, both inside & outside their pension and retirement account holdings. They rely on those dividends for income.
Tell that to the current employees who's 401k match has been sacrificed on the alter of dividends. I find that infuriating and I don't even work at XOM.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Theoretical »

When I was a first year law student in the fall of 2008, my torts professor mercilessly blamed the hapless stockbroker in the class every evening:

“I lost $200,000 today thanks to you people.”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George »

Theoretical wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 pm When I was a first year law student in the fall of 2008, my torts professor mercilessly blamed the hapless stockbroker in the class every evening:

“I lost $200,000 today thanks to you people.”
Your professor sounds petty, immature, and unprofessional.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by langlands »

Samosa22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:58 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:46 pm
AnalogKid22 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:41 pm
newyorker wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:39 pm Today was a bloodbath
2-3%? How so?
Maybe a NKLA investor.
Not the OP, but I did buy 100 shares of NKLA at ~$52.5/share. Still can't decide should I sell them and save whatever is left or just sit back to see my investment go to zero, with a chance that some day the share price may go back to my purchase price.
I assume you just bought NKLA for a short term trade? It might go up because of a short squeeze, but I really don't see a catalyst and it looks like the party is over. If that's not why you're owning it, I'd sell now. There is extremely high short interest in the stock and it's basically like the HTZ situation where a bunch of retail investors are left holding the bag.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Theoretical wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 pm When I was a first year law student in the fall of 2008, my torts professor mercilessly blamed the hapless stockbroker in the class every evening:

“I lost $200,000 today thanks to you people.”
I hope that the professor credited any stockbroker in his classes for the next decade.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JustinR »

Theoretical wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 pm When I was a first year law student in the fall of 2008, my torts professor mercilessly blamed the hapless stockbroker in the class every evening:

“I lost $200,000 today thanks to you people.”
I don't get it. What was a stockbroker doing in your law class?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Future is going to hell. It will be a red day again.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:11 am Future is going to hell. It will be a red day again.
I hope you meant "(Equity) futures are going to hell".

Not "(The) future is going to hell."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Theoretical »

I was in the night program for working professionals, so he had a day job and law school.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Theoretical »

Independent George wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:38 pm
Theoretical wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 pm When I was a first year law student in the fall of 2008, my torts professor mercilessly blamed the hapless stockbroker in the class every evening:

“I lost $200,000 today thanks to you people.”
Your professor sounds petty, immature, and unprofessional.
Let’s see, 1st day of class he told one student his answer was “a Billy Madison answer and we are all dumber for it” and later that day that one of the women in the class shouldn’t have children for an answer she gave. He also told us his 10th grade son’s private school class was smarter than us. The days he showed up tipsy, he’d make more movie references and be mellower somehow.

He also liked to talk about trading in wives every 10 years for “a new model” and he’d find them in the international law students.

He was unfireable though because he was literally the number one expert in his particular sub field and any other law school would snap him up warts and all.
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

Well, now we have a good free falling going on. Down for the year on the SP500
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

newyorker wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:11 am Future is going to hell. It will be a red day again.
The blood of today is not destined to spill off into the future. Brighter days lie ahead.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dukeblue219 »

jason2459 wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:36 am Well, now we have a good free falling going on. Down for the year on the SP500
Looks like the bottom isn't going to fall out this morning, anyway. DOW is only down 39 pts, S&P down .10%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:55 pm Powell's last conference was a mess. He was all over the place with his answers.
Nice foreshadowing of today's Fed Watch blog entry, "Fed Speakers Creating Confusion."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

I hate I don't get paid this week. There's always next week..
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

jason2459 wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:10 pm Unfortunately I didn't. I looked this morning and my 401k contributions went in sometime after midnight as they still didn't show up the last time I checked last night. :(
Haha! I see!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

absolute zero wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:00 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 3:56 pm Anyone else notice that Exxon almost has a 10% dividend yield?

I know it's not a US stock, but since we're talking crazy div yields, HSBC, at a 20-something year low for its stock, almost has a 14% div yield.
What blows my mind is that while other O&G companies are reducing their dividend in order to ease their heavily negative free cash flows, XOM is *so* committed to their dividend that they are actively trying to sell assets (in a weak/down market) in order to be able to maintain the dividend.

That level of obsession with dividends (which are of course just one piece of total return) is bizarre to me. I'm not a stock picker, but if I was then I wouldn't be a fan of XOM.
I guess they think if they can hold off just a few more months, demand will increase and profits will return.
The thing is, I think the price already is reflecting a dividend cut. Dividends are over 10%. That is completely irrational unless the dividend gets cut by 60-80%. I say that because I do not see XOM going bankrupt and disappearing. If that is true then at some point demand will go up and they will be profitable. Maybe not $80/share profitable, but profitable nonetheless I would think stock price are forward looking and the market is expecting similar valuing the stock at ~$37 with the dividend cut.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by kim.gold »

. deleted
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Futures down about 0.5% this morning.

Maybe a free falling day to close out this forgettable week.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

JustinR wrote: Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:08 am
Theoretical wrote: Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:11 pm When I was a first year law student in the fall of 2008, my torts professor mercilessly blamed the hapless stockbroker in the class every evening:

“I lost $200,000 today thanks to you people.”
I don't get it. What was a stockbroker doing in your law class?
Taking the other side of the trade. :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Not-so-happy Friday: Risk off as Virus spreading in Europe and politics in US weigh on outlook...Treasury Bonds steady and USD stronger.
Source

Durable Goods Orders came mostly below consensus.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

We were having such a fun time in August. Those were the days. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 9:19 am We were having such a fun time in August. Those were the days. :happy
I prefer volatility. People get too overconfident, too bullish, otherwise. If someone is too bullish, that might mean they have unrealistic expectations, like:
Inside China’s Stock-Market Frenzy...Investors leveraging up at fastest in more than five years...Trading apps have struggled to keep up with booming demand...“There’s no way I can lose,” said the 36-year-old, who works at a technology startup and opened her first trading account in Beijing on Tuesday. “Right now, I’m feeling invincible.”
Source
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

These guys need to spread their wings and soar today.

Looking like a small loss so far this morning. Need to average it with yesterday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

The end-of-month rebound in global equities faded as investors assessed prospects for a scaled-back fiscal stimulus proposal in the U.S. and the rising toll of the pandemic...

“We definitely need another round of stimulus here, not only for confidence for the American public and workers, but also for the markets,” Michelle Connell, the owner and president of Portia Capital Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “Going into this election, that would definitely help.”
Source
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Brianmcg321 »

Sorry everyone. This was my fault. I changed my allocation away from bonds into more equities. I should have warned everyone.

:oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post and several replies regarding the restart of discussions for a proposed stimulus relief package.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

I am backing up my truck next week!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

Market acting cautiously is ok with me. Unbridled confidence and exubarance is scary. I would rather have some pull back then a bubble building.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

down 2% then up next week then down etc etc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

Discussions regarding the President's and First Lady's COVID-19 diagnoses have been moved to: [President tests positive for COVID-19 - market impacts]

Please use that thread for market impacts related to the diagnoses.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

I just sold all of the stocks and ETFs in my taxable account yesterday. I feel equities are way overpriced right now and am planning to continue my strategy of selling moderately out-of-the-money puts to collect put premiums and potentially acquire stocks at cheaper prices if the market drops then plan to slowly DCA it back in after the election.

Question: I now have 500k in cash in my TD Ameritrade account (beyond FDIC limits). I am not super comfortable with this. I'm going to put about 10-20% into GLD, but for the rest of it, what's the best short-term ETF I can put it in so that it's just not sitting as a lump of cash above the FDIC limit?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

S4C5 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:55 am I just sold all of the stocks and ETFs in my taxable account yesterday. I feel equities are way overpriced right now and am planning to continue my strategy of selling moderately out-of-the-money puts to collect put premiums and potentially acquire stocks at cheaper prices if the market drops then plan to slowly DCA it back in after the election.

Question: I now have 500k in cash in my TD Ameritrade account (beyond FDIC limits). I am not super comfortable with this. I'm going to put about 10-20% into GLD, but for the rest of it, what's the best short-term ETF I can put it in so that it's just not sitting as a lump of cash above the FDIC limit?
VGSH or BSV?

BTW there are less expensive gold ETFs than GLD.
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Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

Whenever I am unsure what to do, I ask Jack Bogle:
“Your success in investing will depend in part on your character and guts, and in part on your ability at the height of ebullience and the depth of despair alike that this too shall pass.”
Best wishes
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Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by S4C5 »

000 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:57 am
S4C5 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:55 am I just sold all of the stocks and ETFs in my taxable account yesterday. I feel equities are way overpriced right now and am planning to continue my strategy of selling moderately out-of-the-money puts to collect put premiums and potentially acquire stocks at cheaper prices if the market drops then plan to slowly DCA it back in after the election.

Question: I now have 500k in cash in my TD Ameritrade account (beyond FDIC limits). I am not super comfortable with this. I'm going to put about 10-20% into GLD, but for the rest of it, what's the best short-term ETF I can put it in so that it's just not sitting as a lump of cash above the FDIC limit?
VGSH or BSV?

BTW there are less expensive gold ETFs than GLD.
Thanks!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

S4C5 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:55 am I just sold all of the stocks and ETFs in my taxable account yesterday. I feel equities are way overpriced right now and am planning to continue my strategy of selling moderately out-of-the-money puts to collect put premiums and potentially acquire stocks at cheaper prices if the market drops then plan to slowly DCA it back in after the election.

Question: I now have 500k in cash in my TD Ameritrade account (beyond FDIC limits). I am not super comfortable with this. I'm going to put about 10-20% into GLD, but for the rest of it, what's the best short-term ETF I can put it in so that it's just not sitting as a lump of cash above the FDIC limit?
So at what point exactly do you think will be a good point to go back in?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

S4C5 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:55 am I just sold all of the stocks and ETFs in my taxable account yesterday. I feel equities are way overpriced right now and am planning to continue my strategy of selling moderately out-of-the-money puts to collect put premiums and potentially acquire stocks at cheaper prices if the market drops then plan to slowly DCA it back in after the election.
Overpriced? What does that even mean?
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corp_sharecropper
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corp_sharecropper »

S4C5 wrote: Fri Oct 02, 2020 11:55 am I just sold all of the stocks and ETFs in my taxable account yesterday. I feel equities are way overpriced right now and am planning to continue my strategy of selling moderately out-of-the-money puts to collect put premiums and potentially acquire stocks at cheaper prices if the market drops then plan to slowly DCA it back in after the election.

Question: I now have 500k in cash in my TD Ameritrade account (beyond FDIC limits). I am not super comfortable with this. I'm going to put about 10-20% into GLD, but for the rest of it, what's the best short-term ETF I can put it in so that it's just not sitting as a lump of cash above the FDIC limit?
A money market fund, BIL (a T-bill ETF), SHV, GSY (one of my favorites)... Or just go all in on UVXY otm call options, you only live once afterall
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