U.S. stocks in free fall

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gwe67
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gwe67 »

20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
The thread has been open for over 9 years.

Why stop now? :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Not to mention, nothing much in this thread is actionable.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

7eight9 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:35 pm
abuss368 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:29 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:12 am Still no idea where the money is going except into cash. My TLT shares are nearly flat today despite the market sell-off and have been flat since the drop began 3 weeks ago.
To think of the risk with cash - a guarantee of no return.
I am more concerned with the return of my money than the return on my money.
Will Rogers, quoted in Will Rogers Performer, p. 292
https://quotes.yourdictionary.com/author/quote/594389

:happy
That is a fair point. I think that is why it is prudent to keep a very long term perspective and diversify between stocks and bonds.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:58 pm
gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Not to mention, nothing much in this thread is actionable.
This thread is very educational.

Go back and see the Foresters of the past. Declaring, with certainty, that the market is about to crash hard and take years to recover...

And then the market continues up instead.

And then next year, a new Forester. Quoting very smart people in the media. Declaring disaster. But then the market continues up instead.

This thread really proves that no one can predict the market.

It WILL crash again. But no one can predict when. The next time, it make takes years or a decade plus to recover.

This is absolutely possible, maybe probable, and should be planned for.

But no one can predict when.

Foresters will come and go. One day, one of them will right. Maybe even the current Forester. But not because they actually know anything.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Nope we're still on topic
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by occambogle »

gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
We're still debating if it's really falling or not.... and this 20,007th post argues we may need some more time :sharebeer
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:01 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:58 pm
gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Not to mention, nothing much in this thread is actionable.
This thread is very educational.

Go back and see the Foresters of the past. Declaring, with certainty, that the market is about to crash hard and take years to recover...

And then the market continues up instead.

And then next year, a new Forester. Quoting very smart people in the media. Declaring disaster. But then the market continues up instead.

This thread really proves that no one can predict the market.

It WILL crash again. But no one can predict when. The next time, it make takes years or a decade plus to recover.

This is absolutely possible, maybe probable, and should be planned for.

But no one can predict when.

Foresters will come and go. One day, one of them will right. Maybe even the current Forester. But not because they actually know anything.
Very nice and thoughtful response.

Maybe the next doomsayer can use the name Forester 2. At least we’ll know what to expect.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jrbdmb »

gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Because the stock market will fall again someday. Why start a new thread over that? :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef »

Locked because the thread has run its course.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

Stef wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:02 pm Locked because the thread has run its course.
Permanently high plateau!!!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by occambogle »

Stef wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:02 pm Locked because the thread has run its course.
Sweet, so only soaring from now on... nice. You offer a money-back guarantee right?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

This thread is the only thing keeping the markets from crashing. Close it at your own peril.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:01 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:58 pm
gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Not to mention, nothing much in this thread is actionable.
This thread is very educational.

Go back and see the Foresters of the past. Declaring, with certainty, that the market is about to crash hard and take years to recover...

And then the market continues up instead.

And then next year, a new Forester. Quoting very smart people in the media. Declaring disaster. But then the market continues up instead.

This thread really proves that no one can predict the market.

It WILL crash again. But no one can predict when. The next time, it make takes years or a decade plus to recover.

This is absolutely possible, maybe probable, and should be planned for.

But no one can predict when.

Foresters will come and go. One day, one of them will right. Maybe even the current Forester. But not because they actually know anything.
Agreed. Only Forester brings value to this thread.
"Happiness comes from being connected in the right ways to: other people, your work, something larger than yourself."
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silk McCue »

Stef wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:02 pm Locked because the thread has run its course.
This is a permanent thread. It has no course to finish.

Cheers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:17 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:01 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:58 pm
gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
Not to mention, nothing much in this thread is actionable.
This thread is very educational.

Go back and see the Foresters of the past. Declaring, with certainty, that the market is about to crash hard and take years to recover...

And then the market continues up instead.

And then next year, a new Forester. Quoting very smart people in the media. Declaring disaster. But then the market continues up instead.

This thread really proves that no one can predict the market.

It WILL crash again. But no one can predict when. The next time, it make takes years or a decade plus to recover.

This is absolutely possible, maybe probable, and should be planned for.

But no one can predict when.

Foresters will come and go. One day, one of them will right. Maybe even the current Forester. But not because they actually know anything.
Agreed. Only Forester brings value to this thread.
Abuss368 brings value whenever he backs up his truck.

Or is that on the soaring thread? :confused
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am I think I need to stop following the markets every day. It's become something to do during my morning and evening routines, but it's wearing on me and I think it was much better when I checked in a few times per year. (Of course back then, I didn't have enough for any losses to be painful. Now they hurt, even when they really shouldn't.)
About 8-9 days ago I stopped checking my own account. I still check if the market is up or down, but don’t log into my own funds to see where I’m at. Before I did it every night. It’s not like I would do anything about what I see, so why bother. In all honesty, it’s been kind of nice.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 000 »

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:39 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am I think I need to stop following the markets every day. It's become something to do during my morning and evening routines, but it's wearing on me and I think it was much better when I checked in a few times per year. (Of course back then, I didn't have enough for any losses to be painful. Now they hurt, even when they really shouldn't.)
About 8-9 days ago I stopped checking my own account. I still check if the market is up or down, but don’t log into my own funds to see where I’m at. Before I did it every night. It’s not like I would do anything about what I see, so why bother. In all honesty, it’s been kind of nice.
I do something similar with a bookmark to a set of interesting tickers I can check as "needed" instead of logging in.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

000 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:52 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:39 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am I think I need to stop following the markets every day. It's become something to do during my morning and evening routines, but it's wearing on me and I think it was much better when I checked in a few times per year. (Of course back then, I didn't have enough for any losses to be painful. Now they hurt, even when they really shouldn't.)
About 8-9 days ago I stopped checking my own account. I still check if the market is up or down, but don’t log into my own funds to see where I’m at. Before I did it every night. It’s not like I would do anything about what I see, so why bother. In all honesty, it’s been kind of nice.
I do something similar with a bookmark to a set of interesting tickers I can check as "needed" instead of logging in.
finance.google.com makes it really easy to set tickers to watch and check.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TimeMan »

I use an app that I check several times per day that has the indexes and some individual stocks, 2 of which I hold from current and prior jobs.

I'm sorry folks, last week at the peak (I think Thursday?) I check my NW and had just crossed a big milestone and was super happy and thinking of my retirement plans in 11 years for a few hours...then its been [expletive deleted by moderator oldcomputerguy] and I haven't check my NW since.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by YRT70 »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:14 am
YRT70 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:04 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am I think I need to stop following the markets every day. It's become something to do during my morning and evening routines, but it's wearing on me and I think it was much better when I checked in a few times per year. (Of course back then, I didn't have enough for any losses to be painful. Now they hurt, even when they really shouldn't.)
Perhaps you're taking on more risk than you are really comfortable with?

I think it's quite common that people overestimate their risk tolerance. It happened to me too.
I don't think so. I mean I went through 2000 and 2008 at 80 to 90 percent equity without breaking a sweat. Now we are at 60:30:10. I think the issue is that we recently lump summed a significant chuck of new money almost at the recent market tops. And I also just need to get used to how much our account values will swing on a daily basis now.
Ok yeah, that makes sense. In that case I think the advice to not check account so often is good advice. That's what I do.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:14 am
YRT70 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:04 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am I think I need to stop following the markets every day. It's become something to do during my morning and evening routines, but it's wearing on me and I think it was much better when I checked in a few times per year. (Of course back then, I didn't have enough for any losses to be painful. Now they hurt, even when they really shouldn't.)
Perhaps you're taking on more risk than you are really comfortable with?

I think it's quite common that people overestimate their risk tolerance. It happened to me too.
I don't think so. I mean I went through 2000 and 2008 at 80 to 90 percent equity without breaking a sweat. Now we are at 60:30:10. I think the issue is that we recently lump summed a significant chuck of new money almost at the recent market tops. And I also just need to get used to how much our account values will swing on a daily basis now.
That implies you don't believe portfolio size affects risk tolerance which I think it does. It seems very human for people to accept they have to take a lot of risk while accumulating to make their eventual goal. It seems just as human to feel the need to reduce risk once that goal is reached so it isn't lost.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

TheTimeLord wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:53 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:14 am
YRT70 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:04 am
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:19 am I think I need to stop following the markets every day. It's become something to do during my morning and evening routines, but it's wearing on me and I think it was much better when I checked in a few times per year. (Of course back then, I didn't have enough for any losses to be painful. Now they hurt, even when they really shouldn't.)
Perhaps you're taking on more risk than you are really comfortable with?

I think it's quite common that people overestimate their risk tolerance. It happened to me too.
I don't think so. I mean I went through 2000 and 2008 at 80 to 90 percent equity without breaking a sweat. Now we are at 60:30:10. I think the issue is that we recently lump summed a significant chuck of new money almost at the recent market tops. And I also just need to get used to how much our account values will swing on a daily basis now.
That implies you don't believe portfolio size affects risk tolerance which I think it does. It seems very human for people to accept they have to take a lot of risk while accumulating to make their eventual goal. It seems just as human to feel the need to reduce risk once that goal is reached so it isn't lost.
I recognize that, and we have a less risky AA now that we are closer to our goals. I'm just not used to days that move the market a few percent and seeing our accounts drop more than what used to be our total annual contributions as recently as a decade ago. (We were not contributing enough back then, but still.)

I'm completely comfortable with the logic and basis for our current AA choice. Just as I was comfortable with our past more aggressive AA and the logic and basis for our recent lump sum investment. I just need to catch up to it emotionally and get used to bigger swings. And tune things out more like I used to. (I think there were actually full years in the past when I didn't look at our accounts. I mean they had like 50 grand in them and we were 25 years out from retirement. It was like the money wasn't even real.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

What's frustrating about this correction is that LTTs seem to be falling along with the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:04 am What's frustrating about this correction is that LTTs seem to be falling along with the market.
I guess cash is king, in the very very short term at the moment.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jason2459 »

I just added a little more cash then normal to my bi-weekly investments.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

jason2459 wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:11 am I just added a little more cash then normal to my bi-weekly investments.
The joys of quadruple witching.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AerialWombat »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:05 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:04 am What's frustrating about this correction is that LTTs seem to be falling along with the market.
I guess cash is king, in the very very short term at the moment.
Cash is always king.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

AerialWombat wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:20 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:05 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:04 am What's frustrating about this correction is that LTTs seem to be falling along with the market.
I guess cash is king, in the very very short term at the moment.
Cash is always king.
My intermediate and short term treasury funds are both flat, so cash might have to share its throne.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by cusetownusa »

gwe67 wrote: Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:45 pm 20,000 replies to this ancient post. Time to lock yet?
I think this is one of the best and most educational threads here. It's a constant reminder that nobody knows nothing...this is a concept that always seems to be forgotten and needs reminding.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

Heading over to the gas station now to gas up my truck! Maybe change the oil too.

Getting it ready to back up!😂🤣😆
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef »

Bought 3 QQQ yesterday, not surprising what I'm seeing today lol.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Stef wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:39 am Bought 3 QQQ yesterday, not surprising what I'm seeing today lol.
It's your fault! :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by occambogle »

Stef wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:39 am Bought 3 QQQ yesterday, not surprising what I'm seeing today lol.
Yet yesterday you declared this thread had run its course! :confused
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Waiting for Forester to chime in.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am Waiting for Forester to chime in.
[somber, funereal music in the background]
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Deleted
Last edited by Robot Monster on Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peppers »

Stinky wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:57 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am Waiting for Forester to chime in.
[somber, funereal music in the background]
Perhaps, some submarine audio for effect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39rw7dgX1wo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

No buying the dip threads, no stocks are on sale threads and no 100% equity threads. So very, very, very interesting.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NearlyRetired »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am Waiting for Forester to chime in.
Well, I predict with absolute certainty that the markets will move one way or another, or possibly not at all
To err is to be human, to really mess up, use a computer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

NearlyRetired wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:29 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am Waiting for Forester to chime in.
Well, I predict with absolute certainty that the markets will move one way or another, or possibly not at all
And I have put in an order for a mutual fund, just because the funds cleared into the account and the mutual fund was what I was planning to buy, but hey, at the current rate, it looks like I should be buying at a discount over yesterday's price!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:07 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:57 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am Waiting for Forester to chime in.
[somber, funereal music in the background]
Meanwhile...Forester, at his computer, in a basement room filled with mainframe computers and buzzing disk drives, maniacally typing in figures and numbers while his mom yells at him from upstairs about what he wants for dinner.
Play nice.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

H-Town wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:48 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:07 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:57 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am Waiting for Forester to chime in.
[somber, funereal music in the background]
Meanwhile...Forester, at his computer, in a basement room filled with mainframe computers and buzzing disk drives, maniacally typing in figures and numbers while his mom yells at him from upstairs about what he wants for dinner.
Play nice.
It's a reference to a scene from the movie The Score. No disrespect intended. The guy in the movie, who I'm comparing him to, is, in fact, a genius.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:43 am It's your fault! :wink:
It always is. Everytime I buy, the market plunges 5-10% the next days lol.
occambogle wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:48 am Yet yesterday you declared this thread had run its course! :confused
It was a joke. It's the standard phrase from mods when they lock a thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Alright hows everyone doing? I peed myself a little this lunch but everything ok so far...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

newyorker wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:15 pm Alright hows everyone doing? I [remark about physical bodily function removed] myself a little this lunch but everything ok so far...
Whatever doesn't kill you can only make you stronger. I do not jest. Such volatility will make us more resilient to future turmoil, not only in the market, but to our own tumultuous lives.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

occambogle wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:48 am
Stef wrote: Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:39 am Bought 3 QQQ yesterday, not surprising what I'm seeing today lol.
Yet yesterday you declared this thread had run its course! :confused
Why buy while the free fall is still in progress? :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

"Jim Bullard said he expects the unemployment rate to fall to 6.5% on average between October and December, the lowest of all 17 FOMC participant forecasts submitted this week."
Source
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Let’s hope that we can avoid a melt down in the last hour of trading.
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
flaccidsteele
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Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:42 pm
Location: Canada

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flaccidsteele »

EnjoyIt wrote: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:31 am Please tell me if I am pessimistic.

I would prefer the market to stay stagnant for a few months. Maybe till the end of the year. Why? because I am concerned that if it rises too fast, it will pop and I don't want it to pop. Does that make me a bear or a bull?
Neither

Crash now or crash later, is largely irrelevant

Personally speaking, crash now is always better than crash later for me. Time value of money and all that
The US market always recovers. It’s never different this time. Retired in my 40s. Investing is a simple game of rinse and repeat
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