U.S. stocks in free fall

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mtmingus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mtmingus » Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:54 pm

dwickenh wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:08 pm
mtmingus wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:07 pm
dwickenh wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:03 pm
I re-balanced during the day from bonds to VTSAX (Vanguard total US market) as I didn't want to wait for the market to close. I'm 50/50 and down
2.70 for the year before today. I like my AA as it is being tested in this market.

Buckle up and stay safe out there,

Dan
Dan,

Did you re-balance to match your 50:50 AA anticipating the drop in equity portion of your asset so still maintain 50:50 AA?
Yes, as exact as possible.
My AA 53:47 prior to the slides of more than 19% now sitting at 48:52. I will start to re-balance the rest of this week.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:06 pm

I removed an off-topic post and several replies regarding the economic benefits of old people dying. Please be sensitive to our readers and stay on-topic, which is the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Unladen_Swallow » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:20 pm

davidsorensen32 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:08 pm
What is happening to the early retirement crowd ? Anyone keeping tabs ?
Do you mean those just retired early, or those planning to retire early soon.


I fall in the second group. I am doing nothing different. I have taken steep losses. Very steep. So be it. We planned on considering retirement in 5 years. We will be 50 then. If it doesn't seem a good time, we will continue a year or two longer, or reassess spending, or only one of us works, or take up entirely different casual gigs. I don't know. We intended to have a lot of options, including "youth".
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:26 pm

Independent George wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:21 pm
Here's the way I see it - there are some very real macro effects to the virus (and, more importantly, the attempts to contain it) which will have negative impacts on the global economy in 2020. The supply chains have already been disrupted, and the shock to air travel, conventions, cruises and hotels will cause a major crunch to earnings. Actually, they've already caused them, we just won't be seeing the reports for weeks or months yet. We will almost certainly be in a recession this year, as Q1 and Q2 GDP numbers will show significant contractions.

But... none of those things seems like a long-term problem to me. Chinese factories will start production again, other factories will be built in Vietnam and Malaysia as companies realize putting all their eggs in one basket was probably a bad idea, and things will go on. People aren't going to stop building or growing things, or improving on how they build and grow things. 2020 will hurt, but we'll learn from it and move on, because that's what our entire species has done since the dawn of time.

I am concerned about the virus because of my elderly parents, but not because I think we're headed to a Mad Max future. I'd look terrible in a Mohawk.
Love this. Though I was looking forward to fighting in the thunder dome... :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by grok87 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:29 pm

mrspock wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:24 pm
grok87 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:17 pm
dow futures down 1,000 points as of 6 pm sunday
*english accent* Steady.... steaaadaaaaay!

All those who were concerned about valuations can soon rejoice.... they are coming back down pretty quick.

Stay safe out there, and stay the course!
stay the course indeed! it is the only logical thing to do.
:)
RIP Mr. Bogle.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:53 pm

Several posts discussing the coronavirus only have been moved to Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

Use this thread for general market discussions (downward trending).

=============
In summary, there are 3 threads:

- Market impacts: Coronavirus and the market

- Preparations: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

- Everything else: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky » Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:58 pm

davidsorensen32 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:08 pm
What is happening to the early retirement crowd ? Anyone keeping tabs ?
Let's just say that my plans for early retirement are a bit up in the air at the moment.

I'm 53, currently "between jobs", but was leaning towards early retirement. The hit to my stocks these past couple of weeks has put a question mark on things.

I knew that there was a possibility that a gobal economic downturn would force me to re-consider...so we shall see how things unfold.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek » Mon Mar 09, 2020 7:22 pm

Anyone wishing to discuss retirement planning concerns for their own situation should start a thread in the Personal Finance (Not Investing) forum. (Portfolio help should be requested in the Personal investments forum.)

Let's keep this thread focused on stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:22 pm

Lumber futures are down 7%. Even the trees are taking it in the chin.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Revision17 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:32 pm

michaeljmroger wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:26 am
I invested $1,000,000 in a lump sum in January (couldn't do it earlier). Talk about suboptimal timing...

I'm not selling anything, but it's hard not to panic. Already lost $60,000 of this new money in the last two hours :?
I dumped a bunch (multiple years worth of savings) into the market in late August 2018. That was also not fun :oops:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tooluser » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:09 pm

grok87 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:29 pm
mrspock wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:24 pm
grok87 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:17 pm
dow futures down 1,000 points as of 6 pm sunday
*english accent* Steady.... steaaadaaaaay!

All those who were concerned about valuations can soon rejoice.... they are coming back down pretty quick.

Stay safe out there, and stay the course!
stay the course indeed! it is the only logical thing to do.
:)
Going down: Shiller PE (CAPE)
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

We're already below the peaks of the Great Depression, Dotcom Bust, and Great Recession. Once it goes down from a peak, it only goes down until it hits bottom and recovers. Looks like we've dodged a bullet, it can go no higher for now. :P

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:14 pm

tooluser wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:09 pm
grok87 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:29 pm
mrspock wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:24 pm
grok87 wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:17 pm
dow futures down 1,000 points as of 6 pm sunday
*english accent* Steady.... steaaadaaaaay!

All those who were concerned about valuations can soon rejoice.... they are coming back down pretty quick.

Stay safe out there, and stay the course!
stay the course indeed! it is the only logical thing to do.
:)
Going down: Shiller PE (CAPE)
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

We're already below the peaks of the Great Depression, Dotcom Bust, and Great Recession. Once it goes down from a peak, it only goes down until it hits bottom and recovers. Looks like we've dodged a bullet, it can go no higher for now. :P
:) This is inflation adjusted and on log scale, so you can draw a trend-line through it and it represents compound growth. We could fall a longgggg ways without this standing out on a long-term historical chart.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500

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Artful Dodger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Artful Dodger » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:32 pm

Well, that was a sock in the gut. :shock:

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:35 pm

S&P 500 futures are up 2.35% right now. We'll see if tomorrow's trading is similar.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jay22 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:40 pm

The volatility in the market has been pretty insane! I have never seen anything like it.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:42 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:35 pm
S&P 500 futures are up 2.35% right now. We'll see if tomorrow's trading is similar.
The Bull Market LIVES!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:43 pm

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:14 pm
:) This is inflation adjusted and on log scale, so you can draw a trend-line through it and it represents compound growth. We could fall a longgggg ways without this standing out on a long-term historical chart.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500
The pertinent post below was written on 1/2/2020.
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:26 pm
... one could argue on the basis of returns alone that at the end of this period, we've basically just 'caught up' to 'average'.
I've posted this before, but since you brought it up:
The blue line is $1 starting in 1925 grown at the annualized inflation adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index up through the end of 2019.
The top red line is a static 7% annualized grwoth starting from the peak after year-end 1928
The bottom red line is a static 7% annualized growth starting from the trough after year-end 1931
The dashed gray line is a static 7% annualized growth from the mid-point between the top and bottom red line after year-end 1931

Looks to me like you could describe it as 'caught up to average', but it also looks like the market could drop in half, or double, and still be within the range of the "long-term average"
Image
emphasis added
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:45 pm

jay22 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:40 pm
The volatility in the market has been pretty insane! I have never seen anything like it.
Yeah I’ve seen it before. It was worse.

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Crushtheturtle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crushtheturtle » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:46 pm

Logical that the peaks and troughs of the Great Depression should define average?
“The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.” - Henry David Thoreau

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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:49 pm

For those interested in the global nitty-gritty of stocks, commodities, interest rates, etc. (I'm not), check out this chart.

I saved the link a long time ago for some reason.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:05 pm

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:46 pm
Logical that the peaks and troughs of the Great Depression should define average?
Maybe not, but that chart of JoMoney's sure looks interesting if nothing else. Many would say that it graphically illustrates 'Siegel's constant'.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings

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Crushtheturtle
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Crushtheturtle » Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:11 pm

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:05 pm
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:46 pm
Logical that the peaks and troughs of the Great Depression should define average?
Maybe not, but that chart of JoMoney's sure looks interesting if nothing else. Many would say that it graphically illustrates 'Siegel's constant'.
Indeed. Stocks have gone up, in a Logarithmic fashion.
“The mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.” - Henry David Thoreau

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:06 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:35 pm
S&P 500 futures are up 2.35% right now. We'll see if tomorrow's trading is similar.
with the historic drop on Monday, there are a lot of bargain hunters jumping in. Will it be a sustainable rally or just a short bump?

No one knows for sure, but my hunch is we still have a way to go til the bottom, as C19 is just beginning to hit most of the Western developed nations.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:16 am

At least you realize it’s just a hunch. Not something to act (gamble) on.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky » Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:27 am

CoastalWinds wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 12:16 am
At least you realize it’s just a hunch. Not something to act (gamble) on.
Maybe so, maybe no.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts » Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:35 am

Crushtheturtle wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:46 pm
Logical that the peaks and troughs of the Great Depression should define average?
Not logical at all, no. In fact none of that is meaningful. It's interesting, but you have to take it for what it is. Stocks have payed out money to stockholders, and often appreciated in value, for a long time. The cost of capital, and its use, has been pretty consistent in that window if you take the broad view.
A fool and your money are soon partners

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Noobvestor » Tue Mar 10, 2020 3:59 am

pesos wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:11 am
Sold my company a couple of months ago and have been waiting to get in as I was expecting this correction before too long. Still having trouble pulling the trigger as I feel there is more drop to come. How do you all decide in a scenario like this?
You figure out an asset allocation that works for you, acknowledge that any day you're not in that allocation you're actively and intentionally sitting on the sidelines, then put all of your money into that allocation. If it's a huge windfall, maybe your allocation is conservative and not that volatile. If it's not a huge windfall and you'll need to work a lot more to retire, then you have a lot of human capital left to put in. Either way, plan and pull the trigger. I find it not just strange but frankly counterintuitive that people are more inclined to DCA *after* stocks dip - here you are, presented with prices that are the lowest they've been in years, and you're questioning the sale? Makes me think your AA is too aggressive.

To put it in more specific terms: you sold a high-risk, highly concentrated equity asset, and now you're nervous about a much more diversified and less risky broad-market allocation to global stocks and bonds (presumably you are covering the basic asset classes). Doesn't make sense. Source: sold a business about a decade ago, huffed and puffed a bit, had similar reservations, ultimately committed to a balanced portfolio, no regrets.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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Noobvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Noobvestor » Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:06 am

Jon_PassiveInvestor wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:00 am
jay22 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:55 am
Folks with substantial cash - are you waiting for this crash to stop/normalize before you start investing again, or are you continuing to do DCA as you normally would?
I'm DCA around a million in cash right now. Doing big chucks at every 3-5k Dow drop.
So your allocation is mostly cash, and if the market rebounds,you lose out. Why not pick a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds that reflects your risk tolerance and investment goals? Every day you're not in your target portfolio, you're just sitting around, eroding from inflation.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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Noobvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Noobvestor » Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:09 am

squirm wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:25 am
Everyone had to do what their comfortable with. If five years from now you look back and realize you invested or lumped in at the top of a bear market, will you be ok with that or will that change your life. This is why to need to have a plan and figure out what your comfortable with for different scenarios. This includes a long drawn out bear market if that comes to fruition.

This is not a tough time, we're not even past last summer spx level. Let's be real.
I'm going to beat this dead horse a bit, but why would someone who lump-summed into a balanced portfolio appropriate to their risk tolerance have significant regrets? For someone with a sizable windfall to invest for whatever reason, from an inheritance to a business sale, presumably they just went up a few notches in wealth and down a few in need to take risk, so can find a nice blend of stocks and bonds. Balance is key.
"In the absence of clarity, diversification is the only logical strategy" -= Larry Swedroe

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:02 am

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:43 pm
MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:14 pm
:) This is inflation adjusted and on log scale, so you can draw a trend-line through it and it represents compound growth. We could fall a longgggg ways without this standing out on a long-term historical chart.

https://www.multpl.com/inflation-adjusted-s-p-500
The pertinent post below was written on 1/2/2020.
JoMoney wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:00 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:26 pm
... one could argue on the basis of returns alone that at the end of this period, we've basically just 'caught up' to 'average'.
I've posted this before, but since you brought it up:
The blue line is $1 starting in 1925 grown at the annualized inflation adjusted return of the S&P 500 Index up through the end of 2019.
The top red line is a static 7% annualized grwoth starting from the peak after year-end 1928
The bottom red line is a static 7% annualized growth starting from the trough after year-end 1931
The dashed gray line is a static 7% annualized growth from the mid-point between the top and bottom red line after year-end 1931

Looks to me like you could describe it as 'caught up to average', but it also looks like the market could drop in half, or double, and still be within the range of the "long-term average"
Image
emphasis added
Yes I recall that excellent plot as well. Lot of room to run in either direction without standing out.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goblue100 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:21 am

Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:20 pm
davidsorensen32 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:08 pm
What is happening to the early retirement crowd ? Anyone keeping tabs ?
Do you mean those just retired early, or those planning to retire early soon.


I fall in the second group. I am doing nothing different. I have taken steep losses. Very steep. So be it.
I am considering retirement in 2021 at 60. So a little early. I'm actually a little encouraged this is happening now, rather than the minute I left my job. At least now I have some options, depending on how bad this is. I had changed my allocation from 85/15 to 60/40 over the last 6 years. I'm also a little encouraged that the losses, while bad, are not worse than they are.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mickstick » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:30 am

TheTimeLord wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:42 pm
willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:35 pm
S&P 500 futures are up 2.35% right now. We'll see if tomorrow's trading is similar.
The Bull Market LIVES!
More so the market is pricing in a rate cut and stimulus package to get bailed out by the government lol.
"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design" - F.A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:39 am

goblue100 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:21 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:20 pm
davidsorensen32 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 12:08 pm
What is happening to the early retirement crowd ? Anyone keeping tabs ?
Do you mean those just retired early, or those planning to retire early soon.


I fall in the second group. I am doing nothing different. I have taken steep losses. Very steep. So be it.
I am considering retirement in 2021 at 60. So a little early. I'm actually a little encouraged this is happening now, rather than the minute I left my job. At least now I have some options, depending on how bad this is. I had changed my allocation from 85/15 to 60/40 over the last 6 years. I'm also a little encouraged that the losses, while bad, are not worse than they are.
How do you know it's going to end here?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dwickenh » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:49 am

mtmingus wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 5:54 pm
dwickenh wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:08 pm
mtmingus wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:07 pm
dwickenh wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 4:03 pm
I re-balanced during the day from bonds to VTSAX (Vanguard total US market) as I didn't want to wait for the market to close. I'm 50/50 and down
2.70 for the year before today. I like my AA as it is being tested in this market.

Buckle up and stay safe out there,

Dan
Dan,

Did you re-balance to match your 50:50 AA anticipating the drop in equity portion of your asset so still maintain 50:50 AA?
Yes, as exact as possible.
My AA 53:47 prior to the slides of more than 19% now sitting at 48:52. I will start to re-balance the rest of this week.
Great, and best wishes to you,

Dan
The market is the most efficient mechanism anywhere in the world for transferring wealth from impatient people to patient people.” | — Warren Buffett

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:54 am

I have found it interesting that REITs have been outperforming the broader market. This may be because investors are looking for yield.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by goblue100 » Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:56 am

Bluce wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:39 am
goblue100 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:21 am
Unladen_Swallow wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:20 pm

Do you mean those just retired early, or those planning to retire early soon.


I fall in the second group. I am doing nothing different. I have taken steep losses. Very steep. So be it.
I am considering retirement in 2021 at 60. So a little early. I'm actually a little encouraged this is happening now, rather than the minute I left my job. At least now I have some options, depending on how bad this is. I had changed my allocation from 85/15 to 60/40 over the last 6 years. I'm also a little encouraged that the losses, while bad, are not worse than they are.
How do you know it's going to end here?
I have faith that Covid-19 will not end life as we know it. Of course the stock market could fall further, but I don't expect it to be permanent.
Financial planners are savers. They want us to be 95 percent confident we can finance a 30-year retirement even though there is an 82 percent probability of being dead by then. - Scott Burns

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jpdion » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:12 am

Cringed at the loss in value after the close yesterday, but happy to have a balanced portfolio (50/45/5) limiting that loss along with a small pension and 2 social security checks. Still have more value than I did when I retired in 2015, even after steady withdrawals. I will stay the course like I did in the real estate crash, as this too shall pass - eventually.

tj
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tj » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:34 am

Is the Russell 2000 really down 9% right now? Crazy

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:40 am

tj wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:34 am
Is the Russell 2000 really down 9% right now? Crazy
yesterday
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

Jon_PassiveInvestor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Jon_PassiveInvestor » Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:58 am

Noobvestor wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:06 am
Jon_PassiveInvestor wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:00 am
jay22 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:55 am
Folks with substantial cash - are you waiting for this crash to stop/normalize before you start investing again, or are you continuing to do DCA as you normally would?
I'm DCA around a million in cash right now. Doing big chucks at every 3-5k Dow drop.
So your allocation is mostly cash, and if the market rebounds,you lose out. Why not pick a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds that reflects your risk tolerance and investment goals? Every day you're not in your target portfolio, you're just sitting around, eroding from inflation.
Because I can’t have a 50% hit to it. Have zero cash flow for my family right now.
100% VTSAX in Taxable Account. | 100% VTSAX in Retirement Accounts

CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:03 am

OK, did we hit bear territory and bounce back or did we come just a hair short of that and bounce back, just like in December 2018?

tombonneau
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tombonneau » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:04 am

abuss368 wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 7:54 am
I have found it interesting that REITs have been outperforming the broader market. This may be because investors are looking for yield.
Less underperforming might be more apt. :D

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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Steve Reading » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:07 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:03 am
OK, did we hit bear territory and bounce back or did we come just a hair short of that and bounce back, just like in December 2018?
Yes.

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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:09 am

CurlyDave wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:03 am
OK, did we hit bear territory and bounce back or did we come just a hair short of that and bounce back, just like in December 2018?
Small caps are down over -20% from the peak, energy down over -30%! S&P down -18.9% but surprisingly still up year over year even after yesterdays carnage by +1.8% :happy

It's really too early to tell if the sell-off is complete

:beer
Last edited by ReformedSpender on Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.

Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:10 am

Delta CEO said he expects help from the government; will DAL shareholders get wiped out then? Buffet in danger?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/delta-m ... worse.html

"Delta’s Bastian said Tuesday that there was “no question” we’ll see some form of government intervention in the sector around the world to soften the impact of the virus."
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

tj
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tj » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:11 am

ReformedSpender wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:40 am
tj wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:34 am
Is the Russell 2000 really down 9% right now? Crazy
yesterday
Yahoo was showing it down with the others up. Must have been a delay

Corsair
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair » Tue Mar 10, 2020 9:34 am

Every time I see a pundit say "buy the dip" I know we're not at the bottom yet.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.

MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:03 am

Rally is losing steam. I predict we close down.

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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Steve Reading » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:10 am

MotoTrojan wrote:
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:03 am
Rally is losing steam. I predict we close down.
Oh I’ll take you on. I predict a positive close. Winner gets bragging rights.

quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold » Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:15 am

Bargain hunters, buying the dip. Once they’ve bought what they want, then we’re headed down again.

That’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it. If I’m wrong, I’ll make up a story to explain why I was really right.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.

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