U.S. stocks in free fall

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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater »

It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Traders call it 'catching the falling knife', which doesn't have a nice visual connotation.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold »

TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:57 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:52 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:10 am
TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am Times like this I am glad I never bought into ETFs (I originally typed WTFs... more apt than not!)

I'm really thinking the closing NAV price is a good way to buy in this environment. How can a guy know the right time of the session day to buy with these wild swings?

-TheDDC
+1

I was thinking the same thing. I think I would agonize with ETF's.
Funny with all the wild swings I was wishing I had more ETF shares and few mutual shares.
But when do you hit the BUY button with these wild intraday swings? Pick a random number for minutes, and another for hours (between 0930 and 1600) and set it up? Or is it a limit order for you?

-TheDDC
You place a limit order. You may not get the best price of the day. But you at least know what price you’re getting, instead of placing an order and watching the market run away in the wrong direction during the last hour of trading.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:57 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:52 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:10 am
TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am Times like this I am glad I never bought into ETFs (I originally typed WTFs... more apt than not!)

I'm really thinking the closing NAV price is a good way to buy in this environment. How can a guy know the right time of the session day to buy with these wild swings?

-TheDDC
+1

I was thinking the same thing. I think I would agonize with ETF's.
Funny with all the wild swings I was wishing I had more ETF shares and few mutual shares.
But when do you hit the BUY button with these wild intraday swings? Pick a random number for minutes, and another for hours (between 0930 and 1600) and set it up? Or is it a limit order for you?

-TheDDC
You can put in a limit order and try to catch a dip over several days or you can put in a limit order and if it doesn't hit change it to a market order near close. But I know of no way to know which minute is the best on any given day. But say you were buying a mutual fund last Friday, the rally at the end of the day meant you likely paid more than someone who bought ETFs, but that knife cuts both ways.Personally I like to own both, because to me they each have advantages in certain circumstances.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

FlyerJack wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:52 am
Stinky wrote: Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:43 pm
The “free fall” and “soaring” threads add a little excitement to investing. Especially when they’re both hyperactive at the same time.
:beer I chuckle every time I see the thread titles next to each other. Great tongue-in-cheek commentary!
+1

My newest daily routine of self-amusement is when I fire up my PC, I look at this page before I look at the news. I then try to guess what direction the market has moved and by how much by comparing where those two threads are on the page.

My "predictions" are so good that I think I may possess psychic powers! :wink:
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

quantAndHold wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 pm
TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:57 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:52 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:10 am
TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am Times like this I am glad I never bought into ETFs (I originally typed WTFs... more apt than not!)

I'm really thinking the closing NAV price is a good way to buy in this environment. How can a guy know the right time of the session day to buy with these wild swings?

-TheDDC
+1

I was thinking the same thing. I think I would agonize with ETF's.
Funny with all the wild swings I was wishing I had more ETF shares and few mutual shares.
But when do you hit the BUY button with these wild intraday swings? Pick a random number for minutes, and another for hours (between 0930 and 1600) and set it up? Or is it a limit order for you?

-TheDDC
You place a limit order. You may not get the best price of the day. But you at least know what price you’re getting, instead of placing an order and watching the market run away in the wrong direction during the last hour of trading.
If I want to buy, I want to buy. For liquid ETFs I have been using market orders.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Holy market timing. If this were a fact, wouldn't we already be down at those new lows?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds »

Like a rollercoaster, the market is much more fun when it’s going down.
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:15 pm
CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Holy market timing. If this were a fact, wouldn't we already be down at those new lows?
Volatility clustering has been a very well known, documented, and discussed phenomenon in the academic literature for many years. It's about as close to a 'fact' as there is in this sphere.

But the question remains as to whether volatility is caused by the downward price trend or vice versa.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Liquidate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Liquidate »

Being 100% in equities, why would I want to re-balance? I saw some say they are selling some stock to re-allocate into bonds but why? Is it something that you'll be making some returns in the bonds but if the market starts to go back up you're not gaining the maximum potential if you were in the stock?
Or is it more of "i'm taking some earnings since I was at a lower point X and since I'm still over that point, I'll sell and invest in "Y" (bond) ride that until it starts to slow and then go back into "X"?"
I just watch the market drop knowing that it's eventually going to go back up or if it's a bear market stay low for a while but at the same time I continue to buy knowing in the future it will go up.

Just trying to learn more about people's actions.
CT-Scott
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CT-Scott »

Take this for whatever you think it's worth:

The situation in China is even worse than you think, says this analyst with a history of accurate calls
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... 2020-02-28

One snippet:
Leland Miller is CEO of the China Beige Book, a research firm that collects data from surveys of thousands of Chinese companies and industry participants to construct a report on the economy that’s more granular — and possibly more candid — than the notoriously opaque Chinese government data.

China Beige Book just released to clients a “flash,” or preliminary, set of data for the first quarter this year, documenting the first effects of the COVID-19 epidemic, and Miller spoke with MarketWatch about what they’ve learned.

“The situation on the ground is materially worse than what has come out in the media,” he said in an interview.

For some sense of whether China Beige Book data is a more reliable source than “what has come out in the media,” here’s an earlier MarketWatch profile of Miller. Throughout the winter of 2017-2018, his firm’s data told a very clear story: contrary to what the government was telling the media about transitioning its economy to a services focus, steel production was ramping into high gear. Some months later, the Trump administration made steel production a hot-button political issue and suddenly the world took note of what Miller had been saying for months.

Those insights are worth keeping in mind as the first official Chinese government data to reflect the COVID-19 epidemic, the purchasing manager surveys for the manufacturing and service sectors, are due for release overnight Saturday. “I expect those to be worse than in 2008,” Miller said, “or else they’re lying.”
Edit: Oops, I meant to post this in the "big" thread. But I guess I may as well leave it here too.
Last edited by CT-Scott on Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:15 pm, edited 2 times in total.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

Liquidate wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:05 pm Being 100% in equities, why would I want to re-balance? I saw some say they are selling some stock to re-allocate into bonds but why? Is it something that you'll be making some returns in the bonds but if the market starts to go back up you're not gaining the maximum potential if you were in the stock?
Or is it more of "i'm taking some earnings since I was at a lower point X and since I'm still over that point, I'll sell and invest in "Y" (bond) ride that until it starts to slow and then go back into "X"?"
I just watch the market drop knowing that it's eventually going to go back up or if it's a bear market stay low for a while but at the same time I continue to buy knowing in the future it will go up.

Just trying to learn more about people's actions.
If your AA is 100% equity the only action should be buying more. My AA among equities is drifting to some degree (different tilts, US vs. ex-US) but not enough to rebalance beyond changing what I am buying.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

CT-Scott wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:11 pm Take this for whatever you think it's worth:
The situation in China is even worse than you think, says this analyst with a history of accurate calls
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s ... 2020-02-28

One snippet:
Leland Miller is CEO of the China Beige Book, a research firm that collects data from surveys of thousands of Chinese companies and industry participants to construct a report on the economy that’s more granular — and possibly more candid — than the notoriously opaque Chinese government data.

China Beige Book just released to clients a “flash,” or preliminary, set of data for the first quarter this year, documenting the first effects of the COVID-19 epidemic, and Miller spoke with MarketWatch about what they’ve learned.

“The situation on the ground is materially worse than what has come out in the media,” he said in an interview.

For some sense of whether China Beige Book data is a more reliable source than “what has come out in the media,” here’s an earlier MarketWatch profile of Miller. Throughout the winter of 2017-2018, his firm’s data told a very clear story: contrary to what the government was telling the media about transitioning its economy to a services focus, steel production was ramping into high gear. Some months later, the Trump administration made steel production a hot-button political issue and suddenly the world took note of what Miller had been saying for months.

Those insights are worth keeping in mind as the first official Chinese government data to reflect the COVID-19 epidemic, the purchasing manager surveys for the manufacturing and service sectors, are due for release overnight Saturday. “I expect those to be worse than in 2008,” Miller said, “or else they’re lying.”
Interesting. I found it pretty wild to hear some bulls/optimist praising the fact that pollution is increasing in China, indicating factories are coming back to life. Wild to think a few days off and the pollution (as visible from space) literally goes away.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch »

This is a pogo stick market.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by morsk »

Market is pricing in another 50bps rate cut for the March meeting in 2 weeks. This, after the emergency 50bps earlierthis week. And another 25bps for the April meeting.

We may be at ZIRP again this year.

CME Group - Fed Funds Futures
Investing.com - Fed Funds Futures
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 pm
CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Traders call it 'catching the falling knife', which doesn't have a nice visual connotation.
Has to be the most meaningless phrase ever. Someone invokes it EVERY time some investment has experienced a recent decline. It implies the trader's ability to predict a further fall, and that the fall is necessarily terminal. When speaking of the broad market, neither is possible.
saintsfan342000
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by saintsfan342000 »

CoastalWinds wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:20 pm Like a rollercoaster, the market is much more fun when it’s going down.
That’s certainly the case for this forum
Already impartial now
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Stocks are still super expensive... wake me up when it falls another 10% at a minimum, then stocks will be on sale. Before that I have no interest in doing anything and will let the greater fools buy the dip.
staustin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by staustin »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:11 pm Stocks are still super expensive... wake me up when it falls another 10% at a minimum, then stocks will be on sale. Before that I have no interest in doing anything and will let the greater fools buy the dip.
S&P 500 p/e ratio was an eye watering 25 on Feb 1st, and 22.8 today. By historical standards, still very expensive price to pay for a future income stream. I'm watching and will be interested at 18 / 19.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

TheDDC wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:08 am Times like this I am glad I never bought into ETFs (I originally typed WTFs... more apt than not!)

I'm really thinking the closing NAV price is a good way to buy in this environment. How can a guy know the right time of the session day to buy with these wild swings?

-TheDDC
Getting the best intraday price isn't a concern that I have. About half of my money is invested in ETFs, so I guess you could say I like them.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
...For the next day anyhow






I kid, I kid :D
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by perl »

Yay! A market downturn. This is fun.

Wonder if I've hit a rebalancing band.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
These "big" loss days have gotten me used to "losing" money. I of course have pocket change compared to most of the people on here, but it's quite a bit for me. I'm not afraid of "losing" 50% of what I have in equities anymore. I don't WANT TO lose it, but if it happens then so be it. I told myself that the "50%" most likely won't happen overnight.

I can only afford to invest $400 a month right now and it's going into equities. Hoping to get at least to 50/50 and eventually 60/40. But I HAVE now realized the stupidity of getting IN and OUT. Heck I would be selling and buying (AND losing money) every day with this rollercoaster!
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:11 pm Stocks are still super expensive... wake me up when it falls another 10% at a minimum, then stocks will be on sale. Before that I have no interest in doing anything and will let the greater fools buy the dip.
10% doesn’t seem worth waiting on.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:03 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
These "big" loss days have gotten me used to "losing" money. I of course have pocket change compared to most of the people on here, but it's quite a bit for me. I'm not afraid of "losing" 50% of what I have in equities anymore. I don't WANT TO lose it, but if it happens then so be it. I told myself that the "50%" most likely won't happen overnight.

I can only afford to invest $400 a month right now and it's going into equities. Hoping to get at least to 50/50 and eventually 60/40. But I HAVE now realized the stupidity of getting IN and OUT. Heck I would be selling and buying (AND losing money) every day with this rollercoaster!
Glad to hear it. I think your 60% bond cushion sounds great and I would focus on buying equities right now, especially as/if prices come down.

They are real losses though, don't think otherwise.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sreynard »

alfaspider wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 pm
CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Traders call it 'catching the falling knife', which doesn't have a nice visual connotation.
Has to be the most meaningless phrase ever. Someone invokes it EVERY time some investment has experienced a recent decline. It implies the trader's ability to predict a further fall, and that the fall is necessarily terminal. When speaking of the broad market, neither is possible.
+1 People say all kinds of strange things. Maybe if I was a day trader it would have meaning, but since I'm not, it doesn't.

I buy when I have money to buy. I never have any idea what is going to happen tomorrow. People may see patterns in random data. They may even be able to abuse statistics enough to "prove" there are patterns. I don't bother trying.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:09 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:03 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
These "big" loss days have gotten me used to "losing" money. I of course have pocket change compared to most of the people on here, but it's quite a bit for me. I'm not afraid of "losing" 50% of what I have in equities anymore. I don't WANT TO lose it, but if it happens then so be it. I told myself that the "50%" most likely won't happen overnight.

I can only afford to invest $400 a month right now and it's going into equities. Hoping to get at least to 50/50 and eventually 60/40. But I HAVE now realized the stupidity of getting IN and OUT. Heck I would be selling and buying (AND losing money) every day with this rollercoaster!
Glad to hear it. I think your 60% bond cushion sounds great and I would focus on buying equities right now, especially as/if prices come down.

They are real losses though, don't think otherwise.
I still own the shares though, IF I don't sell. So I look forward (of course no guarantee, but historically its happened) to when a bull starts again someday. If you look at the history of the entire S&P it always goes UP if you take a birds eye view.
Last edited by thelateinvestor43 on Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:03 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
These "big" loss days have gotten me used to "losing" money. I of course have pocket change compared to most of the people on here, but it's quite a bit for me. I'm not afraid of "losing" 50% of what I have in equities anymore. I don't WANT TO lose it, but if it happens then so be it. I told myself that the "50%" most likely won't happen overnight.

I can only afford to invest $400 a month right now and it's going into equities. Hoping to get at least to 50/50 and eventually 60/40. But I HAVE now realized the stupidity of getting IN and OUT. Heck I would be selling and buying (AND losing money) every day with this rollercoaster!
you are not losing anything unless you sell them. Your number of shares still there.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

vipertom1970 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:16 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:03 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
These "big" loss days have gotten me used to "losing" money. I of course have pocket change compared to most of the people on here, but it's quite a bit for me. I'm not afraid of "losing" 50% of what I have in equities anymore. I don't WANT TO lose it, but if it happens then so be it. I told myself that the "50%" most likely won't happen overnight.

I can only afford to invest $400 a month right now and it's going into equities. Hoping to get at least to 50/50 and eventually 60/40. But I HAVE now realized the stupidity of getting IN and OUT. Heck I would be selling and buying (AND losing money) every day with this rollercoaster!
you are not losing anything unless you sell them. Your number of shares still there.
right. thanks!
squirm
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:15 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:09 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:03 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:46 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 2:40 pm Staying the course. 40/60. :sharebeer
Finally 8-) :sharebeer.
These "big" loss days have gotten me used to "losing" money. I of course have pocket change compared to most of the people on here, but it's quite a bit for me. I'm not afraid of "losing" 50% of what I have in equities anymore. I don't WANT TO lose it, but if it happens then so be it. I told myself that the "50%" most likely won't happen overnight.

I can only afford to invest $400 a month right now and it's going into equities. Hoping to get at least to 50/50 and eventually 60/40. But I HAVE now realized the stupidity of getting IN and OUT. Heck I would be selling and buying (AND losing money) every day with this rollercoaster!
Glad to hear it. I think your 60% bond cushion sounds great and I would focus on buying equities right now, especially as/if prices come down.

They are real losses though, don't think otherwise.
I still own the shares though, IF I don't sell. So I look forward (of course no guarantee, but historically its happened) to when a bull starts again someday. If you look at the history of the entire S&P it always goes UP if you take a birds eye view.
The last bear markets took a few years to complete. The question is what kind of bullets can monetary policy do this time. Rates are already low. Are CFOs really going to take in new capital projects because rates are a one and a half percent lower??
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by puc_ytpme »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 pm
CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Traders call it 'catching the falling knife', which doesn't have a nice visual connotation.
Image

“It’s all in the reflexes”

-Big trouble in little China

No pun intended
No person ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river & they’re not the same person
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 pm
CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Traders call it 'catching the falling knife', which doesn't have a nice visual connotation.
Trying to catch a falling knife. Lol

Catching it requires an incredible amount of luck.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:08 pm 10% doesn’t seem worth waiting on.
Depends on how much you are investing, I have over $100K to put into the market... 10% is a substantial amount.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:54 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:08 pm 10% doesn’t seem worth waiting on.
Depends on how much you are investing, I have over $100K to put into the market... 10% is a substantial amount.
What are you waiting for? Dump it all into RZV :twisted:
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 3:53 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:03 pm
CULater wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:01 pm It is important to recall that high market volatility occurs during bear markets. High volatility is usually associated with stocks going down and then down some more. People stepping into the market during this period of high volatility are sorta forgetting that, I think.
Traders call it 'catching the falling knife', which doesn't have a nice visual connotation.
Trying to catch a falling knife. Lol

Catching it requires an incredible amount of luck.
Absolutely. Getting back in right at the bottom of a trough is a matter of pure luck. I've never heard anyone remotely claim that they could do so consistently.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
JLJL
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JLJL »

Ok folks, I took the plunge. My E-fund had blown up in the last couple years and I'd never invested in taxable so unfortunately I've just been sitting on it. I decided to DCA in on the 1st of the month for the next 5 months (each purchase roughly 5% of total invested assets).

And then I chickened out on Sunday :oops:

Anyway, I'm out there Jerry and I'm lovin' every minute of it!

Just thought I should tell someone :P
pesos
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

sitting on a LOT of cash right now and not sure when to get in! :?
just vtsax it all? fidelity equivalent?
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Third Son
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

pesos wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:12 pm sitting on a LOT of cash right now and not sure when to get in! :?
just vtsax it all? fidelity equivalent?
Now would be as good a time as any. Age? Years to retirement? Any fixed income requirements?

Fidelity equivalent is FXKAX....but not advising you what to do.
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" | | -The Richest Man in Babylon
pesos
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

Third Son wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:14 pm Now would be as good a time as any. Age? Years to retirement? Any fixed income requirements?

Fidelity equivalent is FXKAX....but not advising you what to do.
Thanks! Low 40s, probably 2-5 years from retirement. Figuring on ~$130,000/year in retirement, should have ~$5.5mil invested
JLJL
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JLJL »

pesos wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:17 pm
Third Son wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:14 pm Now would be as good a time as any. Age? Years to retirement? Any fixed income requirements?

Fidelity equivalent is FXKAX....but not advising you what to do.
Thanks! Low 40s, probably 2-5 years from retirement. Figuring on ~$130,000/year in retirement, should have ~$5.5mil invested
5.5mil pesos?

sorry...
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Third Son
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

pesos wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:17 pm
Third Son wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:14 pm Now would be as good a time as any. Age? Years to retirement? Any fixed income requirements?

Fidelity equivalent is FXKAX....but not advising you what to do.
Thanks! Low 40s, probably 2-5 years from retirement. Figuring on ~$130,000/year in retirement, should have ~$5.5mil invested
Nice...you have done well! My play would be 40/60 stocks bonds since you do not need any further risk. YMMV....
"A part of all you earn is yours to keep" | | -The Richest Man in Babylon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

pesos wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:12 pm sitting on a LOT of cash right now and not sure when to get in! :?
just vtsax it all? fidelity equivalent?
VTSAX immediately. I am guessing this is in Taxable.

Since you are close to retirement, you might want to see if you want/need any risk free/fixed income.

I personally prefer to have some in MM or savings just before retirement. My Taxable is VTSAX.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
pesos
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

JLJL wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:22 pm
5.5mil pesos?

sorry...
LOL
pesos
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

Unladen_Swallow wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:36 pm
pesos wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 4:12 pm sitting on a LOT of cash right now and not sure when to get in! :?
just vtsax it all? fidelity equivalent?
VTSAX immediately. I am guessing this is in Taxable.

Since you are close to retirement, you might want to see if you want/need any risk free/fixed income.

I personally prefer to have some in MM or savings just before retirement. My Taxable is VTSAX.
Correct, almost all taxable, and this doesn't include 401k (but that's a much smaller amount).
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

10Y BOND FUTURES AT 0.86% !! HOLY SMOKES!

Asian markets are getting trashed... Welcome to Friday!
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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

YTD, markets have only been green on one of nine Fridays (11%)
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
7eight9
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 »

ReformedSpender wrote: Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:19 pm YTD, markets have only been green on one of nine Fridays (11%)
Dow risks longest Friday losing streak in 14 years as coronavirus has Wall Street dreading weekends
TGIF? That is hardly the case for Wall Street investors who own stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is on track for a dubious distinction if it finishes in negative territory tomorrow.
Friday sessions have been marked by dread among investors lately because of the uncertain landscape that the coronavirus outbreak has created heading into weekends.
In fact, if the 124-year-old blue-chip index US:DJIA closes lower tomorrow, it will have put together its longest run of Friday losses, seven straight, since the string of eight straight Friday losses that ended July 2006, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tgif- ... =home-page

As they say, the trend is your friend. Time for a wager on rouge?
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC »

So what does a down market portend for dividends typically? VTSAX and Wellesley will go ex-dividend this month. Me wonders...

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 90-100% VTSAX piled high and deep, 0-10% VIGAX tilt, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
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