U.S. stocks in free fall

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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

Stef wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:47 am It looks like this might be worse than 2008.

Was the drop this fast last time?
In 2008, a series of bank failures and near bank failures occurred, totally as a result of bank management itself. Totally self-inflicted. That's a unique event.
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dknightd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dknightd »

It hurts to see these losses. But I have to stick to my plan
If you value a bird in the hand, pay off the loan. If you are willing to risk getting two birds (or none) from the market, invest the funds.
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AerialWombat
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AerialWombat »

Just transferred monthly contribution to the solo 401k. Just as good of a day to buy as any other. :beer
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Stef wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:47 am It looks like this might be worse than 2008.

Was the drop this fast last time?
Got a long ways to go for that to happen. My previous post about this, red added:
Bluce wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 10:17 pm As I recall in '08, and I think this is typical in all bears, the dang thing can drop several % in a day, then again the next day, then take a breather or even go up some the next day or two (and you think it's over with), then the bottom falls out again the next few days. You never know where it's finally going to stop, sometimes thinking it will go to zero.

And it did this for a year and a half, although (as I recall) the worst was several months in the fall of '08 when Lehman and Bear Stearns went up in smoke. I was in the market in 2000 also, but TBH I don't remember the details. And maybe I don't have '08 right, but that's what I remember.
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Independent George
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George »

dknightd wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:58 am It hurts to see these losses. But I have to stick to my plan
It hurts, but it hurts like the day after a hard workout. It sucks today, but you know it's good for you in the long term.

The nice thing about being a permabear is that when the market finally drops, you feel relief mixed in with the pain.
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Darth Xanadu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Darth Xanadu »

I'm not making any changes*. My IPS dictates that I have to ride this all the way down.

* I may have to rebalance into equities at some point. I don't have any "dry powder" per se, but I may move cash in my HSA into stocks if S&P hits 2,000.

What happens first: This thread hits 20,000 posts, or S&P achieves new all-time high?
rascott
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rascott »

Breached the 200 day moving average!
Vision
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vision »

I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
jibantik
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik »

Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
Your logic is faulty because if you have spare money to put into the market, it should have already been in the market at your AA.
beehivehave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by beehivehave »

Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I don't know where some are getting their information. We are being told by health professionals that it will take a year or more to find a vaccine, then who knows how long to mass manufacture and distribute it. And we don't know how effective it will be - even the flu vaccine is only partially effective.
PS: I don't think the stock market would take kindly to up to 35 million people dying from a viral disease, though in that unlikely event we will all have a lot bigger problems.
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

beehivehave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:18 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I don't know where some are getting their information. We are being told by health professionals that it will take a year or more to find a vaccine, then who knows how long to mass manufacture and distribute it. And we don't know how effective it will be - even the flu vaccine is only partially effective.
PS: I don't think the stock market would take kindly to up to 35 million people dying from a viral disease, though in that unlikely event we will all have a lot bigger problems.
If we are to believe the official government announcement yesterday, a vaccine is something like 8-12 months away.

The effectiveness (or lack thereof) of the flu vaccine is because there are multiple variations of the flu, and they have to guess each year which variations will become prevalent. I suppose the question is whether there are different varieties of this illness, but my understanding is that no other variations are known to date.
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vitaflo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vitaflo »

minimalistmarc wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:13 pm The Bogleheads forum is surprisingly emotional at the moment apart from the old handful of diehards.
There's a reason this forum is at diehards.org.
Mickstick
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mickstick »

Just made my monthly contribution. To be honest I wouldn't mind if SHTF, I have 30+ years ahead of me :twisted:
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csmath
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath »

It's getting real.

VTI is currently 11.3% off it's high in 8 days.
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hagridshut
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by hagridshut »

jibantik wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:15 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
Your logic is faulty because if you have spare money to put into the market, it should have already been in the market at your AA.
Not necessarily.

It may simply be a matter of rearranging priorities.

For example, during the Financial Crisis of '08, I was considering the purchase of a newer car to replace my beater, and I had been setting aside some of my income each paycheck for this purpose. Since my beater car was running well (looked battered but I was very disciplined with maintenance), I decided to put all that $ saved for a new car into the markets when the indexes were all crashing hard, and re-direct all the paycheck $ I was saving towards a car into 401(k) contributions instead.
First Principles: (1) Diversify (2) Low Cost (3) Stay the Course | 3-Fund Index Portfolio
scsiguru
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by scsiguru »

csmath wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:37 am It's getting real.

VTI is currently 11.3% off it's high in 8 days.
Market capitulation???
Vision
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vision »

jibantik wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:15 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
Your logic is faulty because if you have spare money to put into the market, it should have already been in the market at your AA.
Disprove the points I specifically outlined.
Vision
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vision »

jibantik wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:15 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
Your logic is faulty because if you have spare money to put into the market, it should have already been in the market at your AA.
Disprove the points I specifically outlined.
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ruralavalon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

J G Bankerton wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:29 pm
CULater wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:24 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 5:13 pm love all the intelligent market timers trying to disguise their fear as logic.

The Bogleheads forum is surprisingly emotional at the moment apart from the old handful of diehards.
Sometimes, fear is logical.
We have nothing to fear but fear its self.
Bogleheads stay strong during selloff
Thanks for the link, very interesting data.
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cashboy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by cashboy »

Hoongajji wrote: Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:50 pm
If there is an iceberg on a calm sea do you ram into it - staying the course - or do you steer around it?
i have seen several negative references (like this one) to the phrase 'stay the course' recently. as if it means that you must blindly follow your course to destruction. nothing could be farther from the truth.

the term 'staying the course' means to follow the course you have set out in your IPS. for example, to rebalance if particular rebalance bands are breached (as part of a plan, not as an emotional knee-jerk reaction). in that case you calmly steer around the iceberg.
Last edited by cashboy on Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:21 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater »

There is a vaccine. It's called the pneumonia vaccine, which is probably what kills most of the people dying from the coronavirus. Get it.
On the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.
DB2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DB2 »

.........
TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TropikThunder »

CULater wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 12:03 pm There is a vaccine. It's called the pneumonia vaccine, which is probably what kills most of the people dying from the coronavirus. Get it.
There isn’t a “pneumonia vaccine”. There’s a vaccine against some/most of the strains of Pneumococcal bacteria that can cause pneumonia, but none of them have any effect against viral pneumonia. And there’s no indication that the pneumonia from Coronavirus is caused by anything secondary to the virus.
Last edited by TropikThunder on Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
vipertom1970
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by vipertom1970 »

Yep, we are now in a correction territory.
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by EnjoyIt »

Looks like I may be hitting my rebalancing bands. If this persists till March 15th I will be rebalancing.

I pay myself quarterly and do all rebalancing and tax loss harvesting on the same day. March 15th is the day.

Let’s see what happens.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=79939&start=400#p5275418
HootingSloth
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HootingSloth »

Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I am not sure exactly what you mean, but I will try to pull this apart a bit. One thing that you could be saying is that you will continue to make purchases of stocks as money becomes available to you, regardless of the fact that stock prices are falling. That seems appropriate, and I do not think anyone will disagree with that choice.

Another thing that you could be saying is that you have been holding large amounts of money in cash or bonds for an extended period of time that you will now use to buy stocks. In that case, it seems strange that you thought stocks were not worth buying in December (at the same price they can be bought now), but that they are worth buying now. Presumably, you did not think that a novel virus would cause problems in December, so reasons to discount the impact of a virus on the stock market would have been irrelevant to your decision to buy then. So, what is the good news that has occurred in the interim that has made you want to buy stocks at prices that you did not want to buy in December? It does not seem that it can be anything on your list.

Or maybe you mean something else? If you want people to engage with you logically, it may be helpful to explain your logic
rudeboy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rudeboy »

Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:47 am
jibantik wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:15 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
3) US will keep printing money;
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
Your logic is faulty because if you have spare money to put into the market, it should have already been in the market at your AA.
Disprove the points I specifically outlined.
These aren't points so much as they are assumptions or predictions. You can't disprove something that hasn't happened...
TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TropikThunder »

I’ll play! :P
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am I am buying more during Corona dip.

Reasons:

1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;
HUGE difference between “finding” a vaccine and throughly testing it for safety and efficacy, mass producing it, and widely distributing it. The fastest completion of a vaccine’s Phase I trials in history was 4 months for an Ebola vaccine in 2014, and then another 6-8 months for any Phase III results. Your timeline is ridiculously optimistic.
2) Panic means blood in streets means -> buy the dip;
Standard investment hyperbole, but if Warren Buffet said it, it must be true.
3) US will keep printing money;
True
4) What are alternatives if not stocks?
5) Even if 5%-10% people die Apple will still produce computers, Coca Cola will still be popular, economy will still grow over time.
How much of Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing are in areas of China that have been quarantined/shut down? How long will it take for those suppliers to get back online and production to resume at full capacity? If you don’t know, then your blithe “meh shoppers gonna shop” observation isn’t convincing.

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
It’s not so much a question of whether your logic is faulty, but rather that the “make overly confident statement without any supporting facts, challenge readers to prove you wrong” tactic is so weak and intellectually lazy. It’s your job to prove yourself, not our job to prove you wrong, and you don’t present any support for your statements.
jay22
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jay22 »

Tim Cook says China seems to have it under control now.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/ ... oronavirus

Considering how big a player China is in Apple's whole supply chain, I'd take his word over anyone else's right now, if I am honest.
rocketsrule
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rocketsrule »

jay22 wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:18 pm Tim Cook says China seems to have it under control now.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/ ... oronavirus

Considering how big a player China is in Apple's whole supply chain, I'd take his word over anyone else's right now, if I am honest.
I think you mean Tim Apple
ArmchairArchitect
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ArmchairArchitect »

beehivehave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:18 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I don't know where some are getting their information. We are being told by health professionals that it will take a year or more to find a vaccine, then who knows how long to mass manufacture and distribute it. And we don't know how effective it will be - even the flu vaccine is only partially effective.
PS: I don't think the stock market would take kindly to up to 35 million people dying from a viral disease, though in that unlikely event we will all have a lot bigger problems.
False. A vaccine has already been developed and is going to clinical trials:
http://archive.vn/H45i9

Most health professionals are old school and don't work in R&D; don't understand the fast pace at which medical R&D works now.

"Public-health authorities say advances in vaccine technology, aided by government and private investments, are shortening development timelines when outbreaks occur. In the past, researchers scrambled to develop vaccines in response to outbreaks such as SARS, Ebola and Zika with mixed results. Older types of vaccines are developed from viral proteins that must be grown in eggs or cell cultures, and together with animal testing it can take years before a vaccine can be used in humans. Newer approaches rely on what are known as platform technologies—building blocks that can be tweaked quickly with the genetic information from a newly emerged pathogen."
tenkuky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tenkuky »

ArmchairArchitect wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:39 pm
beehivehave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:18 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I don't know where some are getting their information. We are being told by health professionals that it will take a year or more to find a vaccine, then who knows how long to mass manufacture and distribute it. And we don't know how effective it will be - even the flu vaccine is only partially effective.
PS: I don't think the stock market would take kindly to up to 35 million people dying from a viral disease, though in that unlikely event we will all have a lot bigger problems.
False. A vaccine has already been developed and is going to clinical trials:
http://archive.vn/H45i9

Most health professionals are old school and don't work in R&D; don't understand the fast pace at which medical R&D works now.

"Public-health authorities say advances in vaccine technology, aided by government and private investments, are shortening development timelines when outbreaks occur. In the past, researchers scrambled to develop vaccines in response to outbreaks such as SARS, Ebola and Zika with mixed results. Older types of vaccines are developed from viral proteins that must be grown in eggs or cell cultures, and together with animal testing it can take years before a vaccine can be used in humans. Newer approaches rely on what are known as platform technologies—building blocks that can be tweaked quickly with the genetic information from a newly emerged pathogen."
Medical R&D for vaccine development is one thing; completing clinical trials, regulation, production and dissemination another.
See https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html
So "old school" or not, you can't reasonably shorten the other steps without compromising safety, access etc.
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Doc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doc »

BUY BUY BUY

Market hit the correction point.

My AA is 50/50 so a 10% decline hits a rebalncing limit. :beer
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PVW
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by PVW »

TropikThunder wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:29 pm I’ll play! :P
Don't feed the trolls. "Disproving" wild claims is a common tactic - the (il)logical conclusion is that the claims must be true if the audience doesn't engage. This particular troll likes this tactic (from a recent thread - disprove that brainscanning was a threat to bitcoin) and plays the victim (my threads are locked :shock: ) when she/he derails intelligent debate.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

Doc wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:52 pm BUY BUY BUY

Market hit the correction point.

My AA is 50/50 so a 10% decline hits a rebalncing limit. :beer
I think the correction has a ways to run yet. Might even get into bear territory.

There is an old saying about: "Never buy anything at the exact low point, never sell anything at the exact high point."

I am going to let this market turn around by a couple of percent before I buy back in.
mtmingus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mtmingus »

My painful lesson from 2008~09: re-balanced at -5%, -10%, -20%, then ran out of dry powder except untouchable fund for 12 month expenses.
Last edited by mtmingus on Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
DB2
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DB2 »

tenkuky wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:49 pm
Medical R&D for vaccine development is one thing; completing clinical trials, regulation, production and dissemination another.
See https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html
So "old school" or not, you can't reasonably shorten the other steps without compromising safety, access etc.
I was just telling a friend of mine this the other day who thinks a vaccination could be released in a few months. Some people don't realize it's impossible to rush these things . A year to a year-and-a-half is likely the soonest scenario.
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Artful Dodger
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Artful Dodger »

ArmchairArchitect wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:39 pm
beehivehave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:18 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I don't know where some are getting their information. We are being told by health professionals that it will take a year or more to find a vaccine, then who knows how long to mass manufacture and distribute it. And we don't know how effective it will be - even the flu vaccine is only partially effective.
PS: I don't think the stock market would take kindly to up to 35 million people dying from a viral disease, though in that unlikely event we will all have a lot bigger problems.
False. A vaccine has already been developed and is going to clinical trials:
http://archive.vn/H45i9

Most health professionals are old school and don't work in R&D; don't understand the fast pace at which medical R&D works now.

"Public-health authorities say advances in vaccine technology, aided by government and private investments, are shortening development timelines when outbreaks occur. In the past, researchers scrambled to develop vaccines in response to outbreaks such as SARS, Ebola and Zika with mixed results. Older types of vaccines are developed from viral proteins that must be grown in eggs or cell cultures, and together with animal testing it can take years before a vaccine can be used in humans. Newer approaches rely on what are known as platform technologies—building blocks that can be tweaked quickly with the genetic information from a newly emerged pathogen."
When we're hearing it will take 12 to 18 months, that takes into account a successful vaccine is developed, and goes through both an initial trial of two to three months, then to a full second stage trial. From your article - "The first trial will be conducted at NIAID’s clinical-trials unit in Bethesda. If the first one is successful, a second trial of hundreds or thousands of participants could begin, which could take six to eight months, Dr. Fauci said." After that, assuming it is successful, we have to wait for the production and distribution, which is another six months likely for a more limited distribution to highly affected areas as well as those in health treatment, then months more for the broad population. That sounds more like at least 18 months to me.
7eight9
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by 7eight9 »

ArmchairArchitect wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:39 pm
beehivehave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:18 am
Vision wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:13 am
1) Vaccine will most likely be found in following months;

Please tell me why my logic is faulty, it might as well be.
I don't know where some are getting their information. We are being told by health professionals that it will take a year or more to find a vaccine, then who knows how long to mass manufacture and distribute it. And we don't know how effective it will be - even the flu vaccine is only partially effective.
PS: I don't think the stock market would take kindly to up to 35 million people dying from a viral disease, though in that unlikely event we will all have a lot bigger problems.
False. A vaccine has already been developed and is going to clinical trials:
http://archive.vn/H45i9

Most health professionals are old school and don't work in R&D; don't understand the fast pace at which medical R&D works now.

"Public-health authorities say advances in vaccine technology, aided by government and private investments, are shortening development timelines when outbreaks occur. In the past, researchers scrambled to develop vaccines in response to outbreaks such as SARS, Ebola and Zika with mixed results. Older types of vaccines are developed from viral proteins that must be grown in eggs or cell cultures, and together with animal testing it can take years before a vaccine can be used in humans. Newer approaches rely on what are known as platform technologies—building blocks that can be tweaked quickly with the genetic information from a newly emerged pathogen."
Moderna on Monday sent vaccine vials from its Norwood, Mass., manufacturing plant to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Md., the company said. The institute expects by the end of April to start a clinical trial of about 20 to 25 healthy volunteers, testing whether two doses of the shot are safe and induce an immune response likely to protect against infection, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci said in an interview. Initial results could become available in July or August. ... It is uncertain whether Moderna’s vaccine will work because its gene-based technology hasn’t yet yielded an approved human vaccine. And even if the first study is positive, the coronavirus vaccine might not become widely available until next year because further studies and regulatory clearances will be needed, Dr. Fauci said.
http://archive.vn/H45i9#selection-909.0-909.328

Maybe I read article wrong but it doesn't seem that Moderna possibly will have a coronavirus vaccine until sometime in 2021.
I guess it all could be much worse. | They could be warming up my hearse.
MisterMister
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MisterMister »

Doc wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:52 pm BUY BUY BUY

Market hit the correction point.

My AA is 50/50 so a 10% decline hits a rebalncing limit. :beer
Actually if you are 50/50 with 5% bands you need better than an 18% drop in stocks to hit the 5% rebalancing band (a bit smaller drop will do it if bonds have moved up in value).

See https://thefinancebuff.com/5-percent-re ... -band.html

There are some spreadsheets floating around that help.
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gas_balloon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gas_balloon »

This week is finally what I would really call a "free fall". Those 2% one-off down days really did not feel like a fall.
This week is a good time to reflect on how you felt about the market. Did you sleep through the week unbothered about the market moves? If so, you have the right allocation for the risk you are willing to take.
Did you fret and get trigger-happy? If so, its time to re-visit your equity/income split.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Stay the course and stick to your plan. :moneybag
minimalistmarc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by minimalistmarc »

I really hope we get at least a 21% drop so the idiotic comment about the longest bull market ever (because dec 2018 was a whisker away from a bear)
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Doc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doc »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:58 pm
Doc wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:52 pm BUY BUY BUY

Market hit the correction point.

My AA is 50/50 so a 10% decline hits a rebalncing limit. :beer
I think the correction has a ways to run yet. Might even get into bear territory.

There is an old saying about: "Never buy anything at the exact low point, never sell anything at the exact high point."

I am going to let this market turn around by a couple of percent before I buy back in.
If it drops to the bear I will just buy more. 😁

"Back in"? You didn't sell equities did you?
A scientist looks for THE answer to a problem, an engineer looks for AN answer and lawyers ONLY have opinions. Investing is not a science.
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Stef
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stef »

When was the last time stocks dropped -3.5%/day four days in a row? I always thought market crashes are less noisy with slight up and downs taking months till you realize it.
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Doc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doc »

MisterMister wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:17 pm
Doc wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:52 pm BUY BUY BUY

Market hit the correction point.

My AA is 50/50 so a 10% decline hits a rebalncing limit. :beer
Actually if you are 50/50 with 5% bands you need better than an 18% drop in stocks to hit the 5% rebalancing band (a bit smaller drop will do it if bonds have moved up in value).

See https://thefinancebuff.com/5-percent-re ... -band.html

There are some spreadsheets floating around that help.
Don't need no stinky spreadsheet. Still have my sliderule.

But your remark and maybe the spreadsheet assumes you were 50/50 at the start of the correction. Mine was lower than that.
A scientist looks for THE answer to a problem, an engineer looks for AN answer and lawyers ONLY have opinions. Investing is not a science.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Stef wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:52 pm When was the last time stocks dropped -3.5%/day four days in a row? I always thought market crashes are less noisy with slight up and downs taking months till you realize it.
I read that if the S&P 500 closes below 3047 today it will be the fastest 10% drop in the history of the index. We also have the lowest 10 year Treasury rate in history of the Treasury market. Records are being broken but not in a good way!
Last edited by stocknoob4111 on Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
McNamara
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by McNamara »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:58 pm
Doc wrote: Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:52 pm BUY BUY BUY

Market hit the correction point.

My AA is 50/50 so a 10% decline hits a rebalncing limit. :beer
I think the correction has a ways to run yet. Might even get into bear territory.

There is an old saying about: "Never buy anything at the exact low point, never sell anything at the exact high point."

I am going to let this market turn around by a couple of percent before I buy back in.
Thinking like this is just absurd on its face, really. How this stuff gets spewed, especially here, is beyond me.

So when the market goes up for 5 days, you buy back in, and then the bottom falls out, how's that going to work for you?
harvestbook
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by harvestbook »

backingupthetruck.gif
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

Fact: S&P 500 has only been down 10% in a single week five times since WWII;
October 1987
April 2000
September 2001
October 2008
February 2020
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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