U.S. stocks in free fall

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
pesos
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:43 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
surfstar
Posts: 2277
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:17 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by surfstar »

pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
We're at the same price as Dec. 2019 - why would you not have bought then, but bought today?
pesos
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:43 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

Cash event timing that I didn’t have control over
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 19747
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
How long have you been sitting on a ton of cash? How much would you have made if instead you had invested that ton of cash in a stock index fund or bond fund?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
oken
Posts: 170
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2019 7:00 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oken »

interestediniras wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:47 pm It's interesting that this is so stressful for me even though my portfolio fluctuations have no real effect on my day-to-day life. I can't say that I'm not spooked by the fact that my portfolio lost about 35k of value in two days. In terms of absolute dollar amounts, that's about how much I would be able to save in several months, which feels tremendously depressing, but is obviously a natural consequence of the size of my portfolio growing over time... good emotional training for the future, I suppose.
I've wondered if it would help to hide the dollar value of my portfolio and just keep the percentages for rebalancing purposes.

Sure, somewhere at the back of my mind, I would probably still know how much I've lost, but at least it isn't staring me in the face.
User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 1573
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey »

No dead cat bounce today...

Image
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
User avatar
Bluce
Posts: 989
Joined: Tue May 10, 2011 11:01 pm
Location: Finger Lakes, NYS

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Jebediah wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:41 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:23 pm at least we broke through on the downside the rising wedge (bearish) that was forming since jan 2019.
Not to mention the reverse candlestick upside break out headfake (bullish) that was forming since july 2018. Resistance remains at 2755 on the triple bottom flip up shoulder banger (bearish). The key is managing your risk. Keep your powder dry. Don't fight the fed. Stay nimble. Good luck out there.
K.I.S.S.

Just buy low and sell high! :moneybag
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 21550
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

oldzey wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm No dead cat bounce today...
No, more of a falling knife.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
User avatar
Portfolio7
Posts: 912
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2016 3:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Portfolio7 »

Just a couple weeks ago I prepared DW; "we're way past the place where $5K is a big swing. Every year or two our stocks will decline by the price of a Tesla. In a couple months or maybe 18, at some point we'll earn it back." Little did I know... :shock:
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 3631
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
Yep! If the market stays down for 19 years and you can buy at those prices. And if you still have a job for 19 years. And if that job pays you enough to be able to invest.

EZ game!

:twisted:
thelateinvestor43
Posts: 626
Joined: Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:02 am
Location: Westbrook, Maine

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by thelateinvestor43 »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:26 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
Yep! If the market stays down for 19 years and you can buy at those prices. And if you still have a job for 19 years. And if that job pays you enough to be able to invest.

EZ game!

:twisted:
Yes, and I might just be dead in 5 years and then nothing matters anyways. I'll always invest, even if only $100 a month. A dollar saved now is 50 cents you'll have later. :sharebeer

All of this and life in general remind me of the bhuddist saying that "All life is suffering". No matter how rich you are or healthy you are, some day we will all suffer and most of us are struggling every day just to live. Life is never going to be easy for any of us, there will always be trials and hurdles we'll all face at some point or another.
User avatar
AnalogKid22
Posts: 395
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 8:26 pm
Location: Babylon, but I'd love to spend a night in Zion

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

ruralavalon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
How long have you been sitting on a ton of cash? How much would you have made if instead you had invested that ton of cash in a stock index fund or bond fund?
My thoughts exactly. After the incredible gains this year, you've been sitting on a ton of cash and, just yesterday, decided that a ~3% drop was the right time to get in? So, assuming the market continues to drop, and stay down for some time, will you continue to try and catch the falling knife?
Rosencrantz1
Posts: 561
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:26 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
Yep! If the market stays down for 19 years and you can buy at those prices. And if you still have a job for 19 years. And if that job pays you enough to be able to invest.

EZ game!

:twisted:
Yes, and I might just be dead in 5 years and then nothing matters anyways. I'll always invest, even if only $100 a month. A dollar saved now is 50 cents you'll have later. :sharebeer

All of this and life in general remind me of the bhuddist saying that "All life is suffering". No matter how rich you are or healthy you are, some day we will all suffer and most of us are struggling every day just to live. Life is never going to be easy for any of us, there will always be trials and hurdles we'll all face at some point or another.
I'll bite. Is this a prediction that markets will fall 50%? Or, a prediction of a 50% return on investment?
langlands
Posts: 616
Joined: Wed Apr 03, 2019 10:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by langlands »

The current level of the VIX (28) was reached previously twice in 2015, once in 2016, and twice in 2018 before quickly subsiding. Before that, there were larger spikes to about 40 reached once in 2010 (which subsided) and for quite an extended period of a few months in 2011 (which eventually subsided). Before that of course was the crash of 2008 in which VIX spiked to 80 in Oct. 2008.

It will be interesting to see if VIX goes down from here or whether it will hit 2010/2011 levels.
squirm
Posts: 3004
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

AerialWombat wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:10 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:20 pm And in other news, 5 year Treasuries are now yielding 1.16%. :shock:
Come on, baby, we can get to 0.9%. Whoot-whoot, kerplow! (That's the sound of mortgage rates bottoming out). :D
These pigs can get to negative.
BV3273
Posts: 716
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BV3273 »

I’m in a place where I can do the following:

Keep calm. Keep buying.

I dumped some cash into the market yesterday. Will probably buy some more tomorrow as well.
Rosencrantz1
Posts: 561
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Futures look like they're up a bit...

Of course, there's the fact futures were up a bit last night too :o
squirm
Posts: 3004
Joined: Sat Mar 19, 2011 11:53 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by squirm »

pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
Maybe cash is back to being King.
stocknoob4111
Posts: 1597
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:06 pm i think we bounce off 50 week average at 3028 then fill the huge weekly gap at 3300.
this is my take as well and a lot of other people are saying the same because 3030 was the break out point for this latest rally... it also coincides with the 200 DMA and it's also a perfect 10% pull back. Of course, everything here is just speculation based on some data points and as Bogle himself said "nobody knows nothing" :D
jrbdmb
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jrbdmb »

pasadena wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:10 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:04 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 2:35 pm Tonight’s headlines write themselves:

“Worst two day sell off since ???? (a long time ago)”.
Just saw the first headline, on MarketWatch, two minutes after market close:

“Worst two day point drop on Dow ever!”
They love their clickbait, catastrophic headlines, don't they?

The Dow has also never been as high as it was a few weeks ago. Points comparisons are meaningless. But % wouldn't make such a good headline.
I remember shortly after graduating from college in 1987 when a 500-point drop really was a big deal (22.6% drop in one day). That was a RBD.
jrbdmb
Posts: 557
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 4:27 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jrbdmb »

Bluce wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:18 pm
K.I.S.S.

Just buy low and sell high! :moneybag
If it is really that simple, why do so many do the exact opposite? :confused
pesos
Posts: 34
Joined: Tue Jan 07, 2020 6:43 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by pesos »

ruralavalon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
How long have you been sitting on a ton of cash? How much would you have made if instead you had invested that ton of cash in a stock index fund or bond fund?
About a month, so not much.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 22232
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

Portfolio7 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:20 pm Just a couple weeks ago I prepared DW; "we're way past the place where $5K is a big swing. Every year or two our stocks will decline by the price of a Tesla. In a couple months or maybe 18, at some point we'll earn it back." Little did I know... :shock:
Good analogy!
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 22232
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:43 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
Maybe cash is back to being King.
Cash is king is an old saying that makes sense in any market environment.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
quantAndHold
Posts: 5154
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold »

I do tactical asset allocation, and the past few weeks had me pulling back on my stock allocation. I was at 40/60 going into this week, the lowest stock allocation I’ve had in ever. That, and I just coincidentally transferred a bunch of money out of the brokerage account to pay for an expensive bathroom remodel.

Feeling pretty good about my choices right about now. I don’t get lucky very often, but this week, I feel lucky.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 22232
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

BV3273 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:41 pm I’m in a place where I can do the following:

Keep calm. Keep buying.

I dumped some cash into the market yesterday. Will probably buy some more tomorrow as well.
Excellent advice and one that will definitely pay off.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 22232
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

jrbdmb wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:54 pm
Bluce wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:18 pm
K.I.S.S.

Just buy low and sell high! :moneybag
If it is really that simple, why do so many do the exact opposite? :confused
I think it is human nature at some point. Investors and speculators can not help themselves.
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
TomCat96
Posts: 1040
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomCat96 »

I intend to keep buying.
User avatar
puc_ytpme
Posts: 42
Joined: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:04 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by puc_ytpme »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:28 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:26 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:57 pm I think this may be good news for poor folks like myself in accumulation phase with only $42k invested. If we get down to S&P 1000 points and everything is good again I can buy cheap until I retire in 20 years! YES!!!
Yep! If the market stays down for 19 years and you can buy at those prices. And if you still have a job for 19 years. And if that job pays you enough to be able to invest.

EZ game!

:twisted:
Yes, and I might just be dead in 5 years and then nothing matters anyways. I'll always invest, even if only $100 a month. A dollar saved now is 50 cents you'll have later. :sharebeer

All of this and life in general remind me of the bhuddist saying that "All life is suffering". No matter how rich you are or healthy you are, some day we will all suffer and most of us are struggling every day just to live. Life is never going to be easy for any of us, there will always be trials and hurdles we'll all face at some point or another.
It could be viewed as an apothegm or a proverb, but It is much more than that my friend. It is the first of four noble truths on the Buddha’s path to enlightenment.

All the best
No person ever steps in the same river twice, for it’s not the same river & they’re not the same person
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 19747
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:55 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
How long have you been sitting on a ton of cash? How much would you have made if instead you had invested that ton of cash in a stock index fund or bond fund?
About a month, so not much.
It's good to see that it was just a short time, so you didn't lose much by having a ton of cash.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link:Getting Started
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 22232
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

ruralavalon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:15 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:55 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:10 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
How long have you been sitting on a ton of cash? How much would you have made if instead you had invested that ton of cash in a stock index fund or bond fund?
About a month, so not much.
It's good to see that it was just a short time, so you didn't lose much by having a ton of cash.
:sharebeer
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
The Casualty
Posts: 97
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2010 9:09 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by The Casualty »

thelateinvestor43 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:49 pm
interestediniras wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:47 pm It's interesting that this is so stressful for me even though my portfolio fluctuations have no real effect on my day-to-day life. I can't say that I'm not spooked by the fact that my portfolio lost about 35k of value in two days. In terms of absolute dollar amounts, that's about how much I would be able to save in several months, which feels tremendously depressing, but is obviously a natural consequence of the size of my portfolio growing over time... good emotional training for the future, I suppose.
I've lost about $1395. Remember though that you STILL own the same amount of SHARES!

Down $ 127,295 in 2 days. Roughly 3.2%.

Been through a lot worse.

Don't let your emotions get the better of you and stay the course.
Silverado
Posts: 466
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silverado »

surfstar wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:05 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
We're at the same price as Dec. 2019 - why would you not have bought then, but bought today?
Yeah, we never get answers to these questions.

ETA, missed the response (and it was right under the post quoted!)
Last edited by Silverado on Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Unladen_Swallow
Posts: 784
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:12 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

Folks who were worried that the market was overpriced and got out of stocks will feel emboldened now......

Outcome/strategy mix up.
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
Hoongajji
Posts: 24
Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hoongajji »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:20 pm And in other news, 5 year Treasuries are now yielding 1.16%. :shock:
4 week T-Bill auction is 1.6% 2/25/20

I have read the 2 year and 10 year is the benchmark recession indicator. Another blog mentions the 1 year (1.304) and 5 year (1.156) as the alarm bell. I dont recall the blog or source?

The 4 week bill is 50 basis points higher than the 10 year bond.

Interesting times.

Best wishes to everyone.
User avatar
LittleGreenSoldiers
Posts: 192
Joined: Fri Nov 14, 2014 6:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LittleGreenSoldiers »

oldzey wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm No dead cat bounce today...

Image
Maybe I was right after all. :wink:
BV3273
Posts: 716
Joined: Mon Oct 19, 2015 7:20 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BV3273 »

squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:43 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
Maybe cash is back to being King.
Liquidity is king.
Rosencrantz1
Posts: 561
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:28 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

Silverado wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:23 pm
surfstar wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:05 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
We're at the same price as Dec. 2019 - why would you not have bought then, but bought today?
Yeah, we never get answers to these questions.
Actually, pesos answered this question further up the thread.... apparently, (s)he had a one-off cash infusion that was out of his control regarding timing (so far, it sounds like he has fortunate timing). :beer
stocknoob4111
Posts: 1597
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:52 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Futures started strong but are rapidly dissipating as of now, it may turn negative in the next few hours, we'll see. We may have another RED day tomorrow.
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 5937
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

jrbdmb wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:51 pm I remember shortly after graduating from college in 1987 when a 500-point drop really was a big deal (22.6% drop in one day). That was a RBD.
I remember that day well. I was out of the office at a
conference, so didn’t have access to market quotes. And of course we didn’t have iPhones or Blackberries to keep track of the market.

Every speaker that came to the podium started off by saying, “Now the Dow is off by xxx points”. It was just unbelievable. It got worse and worse as the day went on.

A 22.6% drop in the Dow off of today’s close would be a drop of over 6,100 points. Now THAT would be a RBD for sure!
It's a GREAT day to be alive - Travis Tritt
Grogs
Posts: 628
Joined: Tue Mar 24, 2015 4:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Grogs »

Hoongajji wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:20 pm And in other news, 5 year Treasuries are now yielding 1.16%. :shock:
4 week T-Bill auction is 1.6% 2/25/20

I have read the 2 year and 10 year is the benchmark recession indicator. Another blog mentions the 1 year (1.304) and 5 year (1.156) as the alarm bell. I dont recall the blog or source?
If a recession happens, whichever pair was inverted will be the "signal" that it was going to happen. If there's no recession, then it will be the pair that wasn't inverted. Until the next time around when the correct pair will change again.
User avatar
UpsetRaptor
Posts: 713
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2016 5:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpsetRaptor »

I’ll let it play out, but I really should have an AA of 100:0. My stomach feels nothing but a lack of dry powder right now. Same with late 2018. Wasn’t invested heavily in 2008 though.
Engineer250
Posts: 1081
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Engineer250 »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:01 pm
Silverado wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 7:23 pm
surfstar wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:05 pm
pesos wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 5:58 pm Yes certainly not a bad thing for those of us accumulating. I bought $200k yesterday and today. Still sitting on a ton of cash but not in any hurry with the news trending the way it is.
We're at the same price as Dec. 2019 - why would you not have bought then, but bought today?
Yeah, we never get answers to these questions.
Actually, pesos answered this question further up the thread.... apparently, (s)he had a one-off cash infusion that was out of his control regarding timing (so far, it sounds like he has fortunate timing). :beer
I did a 401k transfer (as a result of changing jobs) when Brexit got voted in. They withdrew all my money, the US market dropped by 7% if I recall, I bought back in, and it went back up. Sadly my 401k at the time was probably only a tenth of what a lot of people’s on here is but it was probably 98% of my total savings at the time.

No such luck this time. I had forgotten to put in the last few paychecks of my 401k money (brokerage option doesn’t let me do it automatically) so I think that guarantees market will be back up tomorrow by the time my buy goes through. You’re welcome.
Where the tides of fortune take us, no man can know.
MJS
Posts: 608
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:55 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MJS »

WhyNotUs wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:35 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:23 pm at least we broke through on the downside the rising wedge (bearish) that was forming since jan 2019.
Don't forget the southern cross and the triangle of doom, we are nearing both. :beer
The good news is that the astrologers are happy-happy with all the lovely doomful news, as reported in Yahoo Finance.... 🍹
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/drink-wh ... 35588.html
Um, why does this make me wonder about Yahoo Finance's credibility?
User avatar
TheTimeLord
Posts: 8279
Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

WhyNotUs wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:35 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:23 pm at least we broke through on the downside the rising wedge (bearish) that was forming since jan 2019.
Don't forget the southern cross and the triangle of doom, we are nearing both. :beer
Love the Southern Cross.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
NoProbLlama
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:40 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NoProbLlama »

CoastalWinds wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 12:20 am Tomorrow will be up slightly, a dead cat bounce. But the free-falling isn’t over yet.
LOL. Both epic fail & accurate.

Next few weeks should be fun as “fear” and “hope” headlines continue to roll out.
User avatar
willthrill81
Posts: 21550
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 3:17 pm
Location: USA

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

MJS wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:56 pm
WhyNotUs wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:35 pm
squirm wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 4:23 pm at least we broke through on the downside the rising wedge (bearish) that was forming since jan 2019.
Don't forget the southern cross and the triangle of doom, we are nearing both. :beer
The good news is that the astrologers are happy-happy with all the lovely doomful news, as reported in Yahoo Finance.... 🍹
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/drink-wh ... 35588.html
Um, why does this make me wonder about Yahoo Finance's credibility?
Did you believe that they were credible before? I put them into the same category as Zero Hedge.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
NoProbLlama
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:40 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by NoProbLlama »

Lee_WSP wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:39 am I give up. I'm going to go on a vacation somewhere without internet access.
:sharebeer:

Right?
jibantik
Posts: 456
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:05 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jibantik »

HOLD on and enjoy the ride. See you all on the other side :sharebeer
User avatar
oldzey
Posts: 1573
Joined: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:38 pm
Location: Land of Lincoln

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:19 pm
oldzey wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:15 pm No dead cat bounce today...
No, more of a falling knife.
Yep.
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
Post Reply