U.S. stocks in free fall

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MNGopher
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MNGopher »

Stinky wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:31 pm
CashFlo wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:49 pm Hold on a sec. Suze Orman is on CNBC right now. I may have to rethink everything... :wink:
What did she say?

Inquiring minds want to know.
She said, "keep dollar cost averaging" or something like that, I wasn't really paying attention.
CashFlo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CashFlo »

Stinky wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:31 pm
CashFlo wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:49 pm Hold on a sec. Suze Orman is on CNBC right now. I may have to rethink everything... :wink:
What did she say?

Inquiring minds want to know.
Nothing worth sharing here. Honestly, I think you could take the average contributor from this forum, put them on CNBC, and you'd get much more reasonable and actionable information.
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ReformedSpender
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ReformedSpender »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:11 pm
CULater wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:08 pm Just in case you were wondering, today's loss of 1031.61 on the DOW was the third largest in history (in points):
In terms of percentages, I doubt that it's even in the top 50.
If going by percentages, it's the 254th worst day. Just a blip...

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
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J G Bankerton
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J G Bankerton »

ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:11 pm
CULater wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:08 pm Just in case you were wondering, today's loss of 1031.61 on the DOW was the third largest in history (in points):
In terms of percentages, I doubt that it's even in the top 50.
If going by percentages, it's the 254th worst day. Just a blip...

:beer
How many days are there?
Tdubs
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tdubs »

squirm wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:25 pm
Tdubs wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:56 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:11 pm
HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:48 am

I'm inclined to agree. This is the worst global pandemic in 100 years. No one knows how far reaching its effect will be nor how long a recovery will take.
Those two comments don't go together.

Until we know far reaching the effects or how long a recovery will take, we can't call it "The worst global pandemic in 100 years" yet.

I mean, it may be the worst. But we don't know yet. If it is the worst, stocks will keep going down. If it's not the worst, stocks may come back up.

No one knows.
I am not panicking.

The Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 is estimated to have caused about 20-100 million deaths, but the stock "market really didn't react too badly", and "it only went down 10.9% from peak to trough." Seeking Alpha (4/28/2009), " 1918 Spanish flu and the market".
I just don't find the 1918 comparisons of much value. It was a very different society (more than half of the population was rural) with limited public understanding or concern for the health risks from disease, social habits, or pollution. Public activities were banned in large cities, but there was little expectation of the kind of drastic government quarantines and business closures that multiple countries have already invoked. Covid-19 isn't going to kill as many as 1918, but society's reaction, and the market's, may be more pronounced.
Unlike then, everybody has easy access to their portfolio via etrade and whatnot. Also there's all these rules that limit down days, not sure if that's good or bad.
And teleworking might allow quarantines and work to co-exist. So we might get through this with limited disruption, but it will be for very different reasons.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Futures up.... rip your face off rally tomorrow?
Rosencrantz1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Rosencrantz1 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:55 pm Futures up.... rip your face off rally tomorrow?
I don't know about "rip your face off" ,but, I wouldn't be surprised if the market manages a 1% increase :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

gvsucavie03 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:26 pm Bonds up 0.5% :twisted:
TLT, iShares 20+ year Treasury ETF, was up 1.49% today. :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MJS »

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:17 pm
ReformedSpender wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:03 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:11 pm
CULater wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:08 pm Just in case you were wondering, today's loss of 1031.61 on the DOW was the third largest in history (in points):
In terms of percentages, I doubt that it's even in the top 50.
If going by percentages, it's the 254th worst day. Just a blip...

:beer
How many days are there?
Investopedia says Dow Jones was first published 26 May 1896: 45,199 days ago.
https://howlongagogo.com/date/1896/may/26

... Roughly the 99.43% worst day. Of course, if you only count days the DJA was published, it may be only in the top 90%.
Ornery Old Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

sketchy9 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:06 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
Meh. I practice as a physician. The AMA sent out a summary about it a few days ago. (First of all, from me, we have no idea about numbers. Our data come from government officials in a dictatorship so take them with a grain of salt.) It noted that the number of people infected with flu, hospitalized with flu, and died from flu are ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE greater than this. And we have the same flu numbers give or take, every year in living memory and before. Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
I think the issue is that it appears that not only is the incubation period unusually long (several weeks), but asymptomatic patients are contagious. If those are true, it becomes quite a different beast than run of the mill influenza.
According the the CDC, which I trust much much more than any dictatorship, nobody knows nothing. They are still trying to figure everything out. Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out ... it seems skepticism is the scientific response to this. If every year "they" predict disaster and zero of those years it occurred, a scientist would evaluate any new prediction by someone with 0% success in prediction with skepticism.

Who knows. This might be the one that is bigger than regular flu. But so far they've been wrong on every one.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DameTime »

prudent wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:21 pm
thelateinvestor43 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:12 pm I got $3400 sitting in cash in my taxable and $1300 in Roth. Should I buy now or wait till the market gets down to -50%? ....
I urge you to develop an Investment Policy Statement (IPS). Your posts seem to indicate a temptation to react to day-to-day market news and swings. Quoting from the IPS wiki "A properly constructed Investment Policy Statement provides support for following a well-conceived, long-term investment discipline, rather than one that is based on false overconfidence or panic in reaction to short-term market fluctuations."

None of us knows what the market will do. Remember, for those who desire to gain by jumping in and out due to market swings, they have to be right twice - when to get out, AND when to get back in.
I believe thelateinvestor43 was trying to make a joke. Perhaps we are getting through to him after all.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

sketchy9 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:06 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
Meh. I practice as a physician. The AMA sent out a summary about it a few days ago. (First of all, from me, we have no idea about numbers. Our data come from government officials in a dictatorship so take them with a grain of salt.) It noted that the number of people infected with flu, hospitalized with flu, and died from flu are ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE greater than this. And we have the same flu numbers give or take, every year in living memory and before. Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
I think the issue is that it appears that not only is the incubation period unusually long (several weeks), but asymptomatic patients are contagious. If those are true, it becomes quite a different beast than run of the mill influenza.
It's the same concern literally every year. SARS. MERS. H1N1. Avian flu. Swine flu. Every year 100 million people will die and every year it turns out few people die, orders of magnitude less than the flu. At some point when experts predict wrong every single year for 10-15 years you need to learn to tune them out.

One year they will be right. Hopefully not in our lifetimes.

Remember we were at peak oil, we were never going to have as much oil as we have now and we're running out. Until fracking. Now we have so much we don't know what to do with it.

Hopefully everyone - as they get old enough - sees how few times experts get it right and learn to tune them out.

My two cents.

One year experts will be right. It's just that it's been a really long time since they've been right.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Steve Reading »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater »

Futures are up. If they stay this way, tomorrow might be a nice opportunity to get to escape velocity....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
OK Millions. Have you not heard of SARS? MERS? H1N1? Avian flu? Swine flu? Ebola? All of these viruses were supposed to be catastrophic. None actually panned out. Personally, I've been gradually tuning out the news because it's often inaccurate and nearly never actionable. But to have not heard of SARS, MERS, H1N1, Avian flu, swine flu and Ebola? My hats off to you sir!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
I'm not going to go through all of them ... here's one.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... 82613.html
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sketchy9 »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm
sketchy9 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:06 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
Meh. I practice as a physician. The AMA sent out a summary about it a few days ago. (First of all, from me, we have no idea about numbers. Our data come from government officials in a dictatorship so take them with a grain of salt.) It noted that the number of people infected with flu, hospitalized with flu, and died from flu are ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE greater than this. And we have the same flu numbers give or take, every year in living memory and before. Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
I think the issue is that it appears that not only is the incubation period unusually long (several weeks), but asymptomatic patients are contagious. If those are true, it becomes quite a different beast than run of the mill influenza.
According the the CDC, which I trust much much more than any dictatorship, nobody knows nothing. They are still trying to figure everything out. Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out ... it seems skepticism is the scientific response to this. If every year "they" predict disaster and zero of those years it occurred, a scientist would evaluate any new prediction by someone with 0% success in prediction with skepticism.

Who knows. This might be the one that is bigger than regular flu. But so far they've been wrong on every one.
The CDC does not contradict anything I said:
"CDC believes at this time that symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ptoms.html

"Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ssion.html
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

Please stay on-topic, which is US Stocks.

Specific concerns for investing are here: Coronavirus and the market

For consumer issues: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Finally, medical advice is off-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Sheepdog »

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:03 pm Please stay on-topic, which is US Stocks.

Specific concerns for investing are here: Coronavirus and the market

For consumer issues: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Finally, medical advice is off-topic.
LadyGeek,
THANK YOU FOR YOUR GUIDANCE AND YOUR TIME.
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Time is the school in which we learn, time is the fire in which we burn.~ Delmore Schwartz
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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Steve Reading »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:56 pm
305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
OK Millions. Have you not heard of SARS? MERS? H1N1? Avian flu? Swine flu? Ebola? All of these viruses were supposed to be catastrophic. None actually panned out. Personally, I've been gradually tuning out the news because it's often inaccurate and nearly never actionable. But to have not heard of SARS, MERS, H1N1, Avian flu, swine flu and Ebola? My hats off to you sir!
Please don't put words in my mouth. I never claimed I hadn't heard about those viruses. I just never heard of experts claim that they'd kill 100M people. You now brought your estime to "millions". Can you provide sources for that? Which virus was poised to kill millions last year, on 2019? You said this is a yearly thing.

Case in point, I haven't heard any expert claim coronavirus will kill millions of people either. Have you? If so, can you point me to that report?

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:03 pm Please stay on-topic, which is US Stocks.

Specific concerns for investing are here: Coronavirus and the market

For consumer issues: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Finally, medical advice is off-topic.
Apologies. I just don't like misinformation. Some one claiming that experts, on a yearly basis, say a virus will kill 100M people, on multiple posts, while not related to US stocks, might misinform us investing in US stocks. I'll leave as-is. Thank you for your oversight.
"... so high a present discounted value of wealth, it is only prudent for him to put more into common stocks compared to his present tangible wealth, borrowing if necessary" - Paul Samuelson
grog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by grog »

The first few minutes of this video have a really good explanation of the theory behind market volatility.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g&t
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds »

Rosencrantz1 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:03 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:55 pm Futures up.... rip your face off rally tomorrow?
I don't know about "rip your face off" ,but, I wouldn't be surprised if the market manages a 1% increase :beer
Probably, on the hope and expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue, again. Although not really sure that they have the tools to solve public health crises, factory closures, or supply chain disruptions.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

sketchy9 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:01 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm
sketchy9 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 4:06 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
Meh. I practice as a physician. The AMA sent out a summary about it a few days ago. (First of all, from me, we have no idea about numbers. Our data come from government officials in a dictatorship so take them with a grain of salt.) It noted that the number of people infected with flu, hospitalized with flu, and died from flu are ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE greater than this. And we have the same flu numbers give or take, every year in living memory and before. Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
I think the issue is that it appears that not only is the incubation period unusually long (several weeks), but asymptomatic patients are contagious. If those are true, it becomes quite a different beast than run of the mill influenza.
According the the CDC, which I trust much much more than any dictatorship, nobody knows nothing. They are still trying to figure everything out. Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out ... it seems skepticism is the scientific response to this. If every year "they" predict disaster and zero of those years it occurred, a scientist would evaluate any new prediction by someone with 0% success in prediction with skepticism.

Who knows. This might be the one that is bigger than regular flu. But so far they've been wrong on every one.
The CDC does not contradict anything I said:
"CDC believes at this time that symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 days after exposure."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ptoms.html

"Some spread might be possible before people show symptoms; there have been reports of this with this new coronavirus, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... ssion.html
No my point being ... it might end up spreading like crazy and might not. It might kill great numbers of people and might not. We just don't know if it's going to be as big as the regular flu, bigger, or smaller. There's so much we don't know that, considering WHO and all these other organizations blew every other flu out of proportion every year for a decade or more, at some point it's hard to listen to the boy who cried wolf.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

Sheepdog wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:12 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:03 pm Please stay on-topic, which is US Stocks.

Specific concerns for investing are here: Coronavirus and the market

For consumer issues: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Finally, medical advice is off-topic.
LadyGeek,
THANK YOU FOR YOUR GUIDANCE AND YOUR TIME.
Jim
For sure! I don't want to keep responding but feel compelled. OK I'm not writing anymore about the flu!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Ornery Old Guy »

305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:13 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:56 pm
305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
OK Millions. Have you not heard of SARS? MERS? H1N1? Avian flu? Swine flu? Ebola? All of these viruses were supposed to be catastrophic. None actually panned out. Personally, I've been gradually tuning out the news because it's often inaccurate and nearly never actionable. But to have not heard of SARS, MERS, H1N1, Avian flu, swine flu and Ebola? My hats off to you sir!
Please don't put words in my mouth. I never claimed I hadn't heard about those viruses. I just never heard of experts claim that they'd kill 100M people. You now brought your estime to "millions". Can you provide sources for that? Which virus was poised to kill millions last year, on 2019? You said this is a yearly thing.

Case in point, I haven't heard any expert claim coronavirus will kill millions of people either. Have you? If so, can you point me to that report?

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 9:03 pm Please stay on-topic, which is US Stocks.

Specific concerns for investing are here: Coronavirus and the market

For consumer issues: Coronavirus (Consumer Issues) How you are preparing?

Finally, medical advice is off-topic.
Apologies. I just don't like misinformation. Some one claiming that experts, on a yearly basis, say a virus will kill 100M people, on multiple posts, while not related to US stocks, might misinform us investing in US stocks. I'll leave as-is. Thank you for your oversight.
I'm done responding too.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

CoastalWinds wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:08 pm
Rosencrantz1 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:03 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 7:55 pm Futures up.... rip your face off rally tomorrow?
I don't know about "rip your face off" ,but, I wouldn't be surprised if the market manages a 1% increase :beer
Probably, on the hope and expectation that the Fed will come to the rescue, again. Although not really sure that they have the tools to solve public health crises, factory closures, or supply chain disruptions.
Yeah, I don't see a .25% cut in the Fed funds rate really doing the trick here.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

I am 60/40, plus MSFT but still up just .3 % YTD. I assume anyone with 3 funds, 60/40 portfolio is about break even YTD correct ?
CoastalWinds
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CoastalWinds »

Tomorrow will be up slightly, a dead cat bounce. But the free-falling isn’t over yet.
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oldzey
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by oldzey »

Looks like meat's back on the menu...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 7:55 pm market reaction is muted.. in Feb 2018 the Dow was falling 1500 points in a single day and here we are fretting about 350 points? c'mon now.. i'll notice if it falls 1000+ points in a day otherwise it isn't news.
So did it make it to the news yet?
Or not.

Just wanted to confirm.
"A Republic, if you can keep it". Benjamin Franklin. 1787. | Party affiliation: Vanguard. Religion: low-cost investing.
Shael_AT
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Shael_AT »

.... Here I am, automatically investing $774 dollars into my brokerage on Monday, like I do every monday, and investing in my 401k 2x a month, maxed annually, and my Roth IRA is maxed out the second it's available.

...

With no change since 2011.

Like a maniac.
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LittleGreenSoldiers
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LittleGreenSoldiers »

Shael_AT wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:32 am .... Here I am, automatically investing $774 dollars into my brokerage on Monday, like I do every monday, and investing in my 401k 2x a month, maxed annually, and my Roth IRA is maxed out the second it's available.

...

With no change since 2011.

Like a maniac.
Keep on, keeping on! That's the BH way.
carminered2019
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by carminered2019 »

Shael_AT wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:32 am .... Here I am, automatically investing $774 dollars into my brokerage on Monday, like I do every monday, and investing in my 401k 2x a month, maxed annually, and my Roth IRA is maxed out the second it's available.

...

With no change since 2011.

Like a maniac.
Good for you !!!!! I did the same thing in my 401K from 1996-2019, 100% equities, dotcom bust, 2 recessions, multiple corrections, black swan, September 11 attack and SAR but still up over 375%.
quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by quantAndHold »

Shael_AT wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 1:32 am .... Here I am, automatically investing $774 dollars into my brokerage on Monday, like I do every monday, and investing in my 401k 2x a month, maxed annually, and my Roth IRA is maxed out the second it's available.

...

With no change since 2011.

Like a maniac.
Dollar cost averaging. Totally rocks. Buy more when it's cheap, less when it's expensive. Repeat until retired.
Yes, I’m really that pedantic.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

I'm calling a 30% bear market. Lot of air under SPX 2900 :happy
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Re: Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom

Post by abuss368 »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:06 pm Bogleheads:

A reminder of Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom in "Common Sense on Mutual Funds":

"Stay the course. No matter what happens, stick to your program. I've said "Stay the course" a thousand times, and I meant it every time. It is the most important single piece of investment wisdom I can give to you."

Best wishes.
Taylor
Absolutely. When there is market trauma and noise, Jack's advice was always soothing and calm. I refer to his advice often. As well as, Warren Buffett, who said yesterday on CNBC he was buying no different then last Friday or any other day.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Forester »

But Buffett is in a position of public responsibility. If the market was not overdone he wouldn't be sitting on cash he'd be deploying it. His actions speak loudest.
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CULater
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CULater »

Stock futures are not compelling this A.M. Probably should brace for another down day. Was hoping the cat would bounce.
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sid hartha
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sid hartha »

I have not made any changes to my investments as a result of the decline yesterday. Do I get some type of award?
Last edited by sid hartha on Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
KlangFool
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by KlangFool »

Folks,

My AA is 60/40.

So, VTSAX (Total Stock Market Index) was down 3.29% yesterday. VBTLX (Total Bond Market Index fund) was up 0.35%. VFIUX (Intermediate-term treasury) was up 0.52%.

60% of 3.29% ~ 2%.

My portfolio was down 1.71% instead of 2%.

Diversification works.

KlangFool
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by canadianbacon »

Well, I have learned from the past month that I don't have the stomach for an 80/20 allocation. I'm shifted to a 70/30, which also gives me 5+ years of fixed income.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Patzer »

Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:56 pm
305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
OK Millions. Have you not heard of SARS? MERS? H1N1? Avian flu? Swine flu? Ebola? All of these viruses were supposed to be catastrophic. None actually panned out. Personally, I've been gradually tuning out the news because it's often inaccurate and nearly never actionable. But to have not heard of SARS, MERS, H1N1, Avian flu, swine flu and Ebola? My hats off to you sir!
SARS was successfully contained at a total of 8,000 cases, with limited outbreaks outside of China. With a 9.6% fatality rate, tens of millions would have died if it was not contained. So... experts were right, but succeeded in winning the war.
Swine flu killed 575,000 people around the world. 60 million people in the US got it. Swine flu was not contained, but the death rate was not very high, so it's impact was limited.
Ebola continues to plague certain areas, but is easier to contain, because it kills so fast that it is obvious you have it and it is hard to move around spreading the infection when you have it. If we didn't contain it, we would lose hundreds of millions of people.

I was happy to call this a SARS like situation even at 50,000 cases, until Iran, Italy, and South Korea got major outbreaks.
Italy and South Korea are doing everything they can do to contain it. Iran is still trying to pretend it isn't a problem, which leads me to believe they will not contain it there and it will spark outbreaks in other countries (this is already happening in bordering countries on low levels).

If we fail to contain, we should expect 20-35% of the world's population to get it, and expect a death rate of 1-3% depending on the quality of the medicine and how overwhelmed hospitals are in the areas of outbreaks. Many leaders realize the potential here for tens of millions of deaths, which is why they are taking the correct action of putting forth strong quarantine efforts.

It still might get contained, but that doesn't make experts wrong.

If they do contain it, it will be with more quarantines and more panic in more countries, which is sure to impact economies with far fewer people leaving their houses, impacting at a minimum physical retail, restaurants, and travel businesses. It may also impact supply chains like it is already doing in China. Keep in mind, this is the best case scenario, where we do contain it.

If we don't contain it, tens of millions of people die, and while that won't have a lasting impact on our species, it certainly will have a large impact on 2020 earnings for a slew of countries. If nearly everyone on earth knows someone that dies from COVID-19, expect a pull back in spending as people mourn.

Does this matter to an investor with a 30 year timeline? Probably not. I am confident stocks will have recovered in a few years, but do you have a big enough emergency fund, if you lose your job, or is there a chance you will have to sell?
If anyone has an emergency fund that is a little light, now is the time to fix that.

Does this matter to an investor that is at or near retirement? Maybe. If you are in an extremely aggressive allocation, you should probably pull back from it slightly to ensure you have 2 years spending. Otherwise, probably not.

Should we stay the course? Probably. It is hard to predict the future, so I wouldn't suggest selling everything and running for the hills, but it's hard for me to believe the stock market will be higher than it is today in 2-3 months, and that does tempt me to time the market, even if it is only with a 5-10% of my portfolio.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Forester wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:23 am But Buffett is in a position of public responsibility. If the market was not overdone he wouldn't be sitting on cash he'd be deploying it. His actions speak loudest.
I hope you don't believe Berkshire is not constantly deploying cash and looking for opportunities to buy whole businesses or lend large sum of money at very attractive terms.Comparing the actions of a huge conservative conglomerate like Berkshire to those of an individual investor is apples and oranges.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

sid hartha wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:37 am I have not made any changes to my investments as a result of the decline yesterday. Do I get some type of award?
Me neither. Are there that many market timers at BH.0rg?
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Bluce wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:46 am
sid hartha wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:37 am I have not made any changes to my investments as a result of the decline yesterday. Do I get some type of award?
Me neither. Are there that many market timers at BH.0rg?
I consider myself a market timer in many ways. But it more around my own personal financial situation and goals. Back in December I thought we were in for a repeat of the market melt up of early 2018 so I put in a lot of limit sell orders that triggered on set intervals. But my personal situation allowed me to take that risk and as of yesterday it seems to have been a good call. Thing is if the market had kept going up I still wouldn't have been hurt, just had a few less dollars, so driven by my personal situation and my need or lack thereof for gains.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

Patzer wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 9:14 am
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:56 pm
305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:45 pm
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 3:57 pm Don't forget EVERY year experts tell us there's a new virus that is going to kill 100 million and so far it has never panned out. One day it will. But the experts have been wrong every year so far.
Ornery Old Guy wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:30 pm Considering every year we hear about the new virus that's going to kill 100 million people and everyone panics and it doesn't pan out
Can you provide sources backing up this idea that experts, on a yearly basis, claim a virus will take 100M lives? Thanks.
OK Millions. Have you not heard of SARS? MERS? H1N1? Avian flu? Swine flu? Ebola? All of these viruses were supposed to be catastrophic. None actually panned out. Personally, I've been gradually tuning out the news because it's often inaccurate and nearly never actionable. But to have not heard of SARS, MERS, H1N1, Avian flu, swine flu and Ebola? My hats off to you sir!
SARS was successfully contained at a total of 8,000 cases, with limited outbreaks outside of China. With a 9.6% fatality rate, tens of millions would have died if it was not contained. So... experts were right, but succeeded in winning the war.
Swine flu killed 575,000 people around the world. 60 million people in the US got it. Swine flu was not contained, but the death rate was not very high, so it's impact was limited.
Ebola continues to plague certain areas, but is easier to contain, because it kills so fast that it is obvious you have it and it is hard to move around spreading the infection when you have it. If we didn't contain it, we would lose hundreds of millions of people.

I was happy to call this a SARS like situation even at 50,000 cases, until Iran, Italy, and South Korea got major outbreaks.
Italy and South Korea are doing everything they can do to contain it. Iran is still trying to pretend it isn't a problem, which leads me to believe they will not contain it there and it will spark outbreaks in other countries (this is already happening in bordering countries on low levels).

If we fail to contain, we should expect 20-35% of the world's population to get it, and expect a death rate of 1-3% depending on the quality of the medicine and how overwhelmed hospitals are in the areas of outbreaks. Many leaders realize the potential here for tens of millions of deaths, which is why they are taking the correct action of putting forth strong quarantine efforts.

It still might get contained, but that doesn't make experts wrong.

If they do contain it, it will be with more quarantines and more panic in more countries, which is sure to impact economies with far fewer people leaving their houses, impacting at a minimum physical retail, restaurants, and travel businesses. It may also impact supply chains like it is already doing in China. Keep in mind, this is the best case scenario, where we do contain it.

If we don't contain it, tens of millions of people die, and while that won't have a lasting impact on our species, it certainly will have a large impact on 2020 earnings for a slew of countries. If nearly everyone on earth knows someone that dies from COVID-19, expect a pull back in spending as people mourn.

Does this matter to an investor with a 30 year timeline? Probably not. I am confident stocks will have recovered in a few years, but do you have a big enough emergency fund, if you lose your job, or is there a chance you will have to sell?
If anyone has an emergency fund that is a little light, now is the time to fix that.

Does this matter to an investor that is at or near retirement? Maybe. If you are in an extremely aggressive allocation, you should probably pull back from it slightly to ensure you have 2 years spending. Otherwise, probably not.

Should we stay the course? Probably. It is hard to predict the future, so I wouldn't suggest selling everything and running for the hills, but it's hard for me to believe the stock market will be higher than it is today in 2-3 months, and that does tempt me to time the market, even if it is only with a 5-10% of my portfolio.
Good post.

I'm afraid that many believe this to be another case of 'the boy who cried wolf'. The sad truth of the matter is that pandemics have occurred throughout all human history, and while we understand them far better today than we once did, the global movement of significant numbers of people and urbanization can really work against us. If Covid-19 doesn't kill millions of people worldwide (and I really pray that it doesn't), some other virus will one day.

I agree that no matter what steps are taken in response to the emergence of this virus, the impact on global economies will likely be felt for a while, my guess is 6-18 months.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
Drolen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Drolen »

Here we go again on another day of selling. Maybe I can find a few more dollars lying around.
Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

I give up. I'm going to go on a vacation somewhere without internet access.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

I think we were due for a correction and coronavirus is a good an excuse as any.

My trailing stops on QQQ activated at 221.15 yesterday, just about the low point of the day. But today I am looking a lot smarter as we are already below that price...
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Feb 25, 2020 10:52 am I think we were due for a correction and coronavirus is a good an excuse as any.

My trailing stops on QQQ activated at 221.15 yesterday, just about the low point of the day. But today I am looking a lot smarter as we are already below that price...
<Fist Bump>
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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