U.S. stocks in free fall

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nydoc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nydoc »

Today was my scheduled day to buy VTI. I switched to VV in case it turns out to be a nice TLH opportunity. Otherwise nothing new.
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Hub
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hub »

Pushed in a $5k chunk from the HSA that I've been trying to get invested for months. Still sitting at 20% cash when my plan calls for 10% just due to not finding enough bad days to buy since December 2018.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

Well this incident should put at least a little doubt into the argument that the market always has everything priced in. There were several people in this forum over the last few weeks that argued the known risks/impacts of this virus were not priced in, and it seems they were correct.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by KlangFool »

Folks,

I need a lot more drop in order for me to TLH.

KlangFool
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:59 pm Well this incident should put at least a little doubt into the argument that the market always has everything priced in. There were several people in this forum over the last few weeks that argued the known risks/impacts of this virus were not priced in, and it seems they were correct.
The market is certainly not omniscient. If it were, prices would not change quickly at the very least.

If the market wasn't 'right' about the effects of the virus weeks ago, is it 'right' today?
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

nydoc wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:56 pm Today was my scheduled day to buy VTI. I switched to VV in case it turns out to be a nice TLH opportunity. Otherwise nothing new.
Nice plan. For the future you may want to consider ITOT, now that all brokerages allow free ETF trading. Maintains Total Market exposure while following a different index so no wash sale risk IMHO. Who knows, maybe you'll get a chance to harvest both your VTI and your new VV in to ITOT within the next 30 days :twisted: .
flyingaway
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by flyingaway »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:59 pm Well this incident should put at least a little doubt into the argument that the market always has everything priced in. There were several people in this forum over the last few weeks that argued the known risks/impacts of this virus were not priced in, and it seems they were correct.
It is being priced in now.
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nisiprius
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by nisiprius »

flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by sailaway »

I don't understand how anyone could make this be all about Corona virus. Surely recent declines in manufacturing and rising debt levels have at least something to do with falling prices?
il0kin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by il0kin »

I did a little market timing and bought 10 shares of VTI. It’s fun to watch it fluctuate in an otherwise uninteresting money market emergency fund. I buy 10 shares every time there’s a 2% drop and sell them once I’ve made a 4% ROI. If that takes a few years, so be it :)
Irisheyes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Irisheyes »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than the flu. Because of uncertainties about everything that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities. But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, take aspirin, drink plenty of fluids... this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
Well, it aint like Ebola in that, as my doctor pointed out last week, Ebola is extremely hard to catch....It is not spread through the air but through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person.

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
metalworking
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by metalworking »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
This A.M. the World Health Organization said mortality rate was 2% in Wuhan and 0.6% elsewhere. Still is horrible and could get worse.
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

We are buying a house and this will help with the mortgage vs. invest question. Hoping to get a 30 year fixed @ 2.75%. I won't pay that off early.
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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

selloff is approaching 4% on the S&P 500 :| Nasdaq is down almost 5%.

Haven't seen this type of selling in a long long time!
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Post by Dottie57 »

Morgthorak wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:38 pm
fishnskiguy wrote:
Ain't gonna happen on our watch. Sorry.

Chris
Thank you! That's one of the things I like most about this forum. No partisan crap to wade through. 8-)
+1

I have a hard time not making political comment but realize the topic is forbidden for a good reason.
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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ray.james »

corn18 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:17 pm We are buying a house and this will help with the mortgage vs. invest question. Hoping to get a 30 year fixed @ 2.75%. I won't pay that off early.
Wow, are these the offered rates or prediction? I think I have seen 3.25 this morning and may be 3 with relationship discount.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

ray.james wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:21 pm
corn18 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:17 pm We are buying a house and this will help with the mortgage vs. invest question. Hoping to get a 30 year fixed @ 2.75%. I won't pay that off early.
Wow, are these the offered rates or prediction? I think I have seen 3.25 this morning and may be 3 with relationship discount.
Bankrate has popped 2.75% 30 year rates starting last Friday. It changes a lot, though. Right now the lowest is 3.125% for 30 year fixed conforming. I saw 2.75% earlier this morning.
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retiringwhen »

corn18 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:17 pm We are buying a house and this will help with the mortgage vs. invest question. Hoping to get a 30 year fixed @ 2.75%. I won't pay that off early.
I got one of those (15 year @ 2.875% in 2013), I just love that interest payment! Sadly mortgage rates don't hew that closely to treasuries.
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rule low
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rule low »

Irisheyes wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than the flu. Because of uncertainties about everything that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities. But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, take aspirin, drink plenty of fluids... this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
Well, it aint like Ebola in that, as my doctor pointed out last week, Ebola is extremely hard to catch....It is not spread through the air but through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person.

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
Ebola also has close to a 50% mortality rate so patients usually die before they can pass the virus to more people, very unlike what we see with the coronavirus.

I'm suddenly feeling pangs of regret for switching from VOO to VIGAX in my Roth a few weeks back. Growth stocks are taking a beating - RIP performance chasing.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:48 am
DB2 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:43 am
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:45 am
DB2 wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:20 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:17 pm I hate this stage in a drop. Not down enough to make me want to buy, but down enough to stirs emotions.
It's is different this time when you consider the possible election outcome, virus, and late in the business cycle. Perfect storm brewing?
It is always different. Every drop is different from the last drop, every crash is different from the last crash.

I have no idea if this drop is the start of the big crash, or not.
It's always different, but this is different in a much bigger way.
I'm inclined to agree. This is the worst global pandemic in 100 years. No one knows how far reaching its effect will be nor how long a recovery will take.
Those two comments don't go together.

Until we know far reaching the effects or how long a recovery will take, we can't call it "The worst global pandemic in 100 years" yet.

I mean, it may be the worst. But we don't know yet. If it is the worst, stocks will keep going down. If it's not the worst, stocks may come back up.

No one knows.
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

https://humbledollar.com/2020/02/stand-your-ground/

A good reminder amidst all of the fear mongers on this thread.
Last edited by lostdog on Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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totesmagotes
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by totesmagotes »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:02 pm
ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:59 pm Well this incident should put at least a little doubt into the argument that the market always has everything priced in. There were several people in this forum over the last few weeks that argued the known risks/impacts of this virus were not priced in, and it seems they were correct.
The market is certainly not omniscient. If it were, prices would not change quickly at the very least.

If the market wasn't 'right' about the effects of the virus weeks ago, is it 'right' today?
It's right today if it fits my priors. :wink: Hindsight bias, FTW!

A 3% down day is far from uncommon. We're less than 5% off the all-time high. Remember the doom and gloom on the day after the Iran incident just a few weeks ago? Remember the doom and gloom in 2011, 2016, and late 2018? Over a 10+ yr period, such events almost always look like minor blips.
Image
(Above should be on log y axis, but CNBC only has linear axis and I don't care enough to pull up another site that has log axis)

Of course this could be really bad. Or it could be transient. We don't know. Eventually, one of these events (Greek/Euro debt, 2016 oil crash, Iran/Iraq/Syria/Ukraine/Russia geopolitics, late 2018 US slowdown scare, COVID19/nCov, etc.) will create a more sustained and severe drawdown, but, so far, staying out of the market out of fear of the aforementioned events meant a lot of missed upside since. And when the "big one" hits, there won't be a lack of people coming out of the woodwork to tell us why they were right and how they were able to "call it", even though they did so back when the DJIA was at 14k and they've missed out on a >100% gain. Maybe this will be the supply shock that pumps inflation and kills the 30+ yr bond bull market. Maybe this will be the demand shock (owing to economies shutting down, etc.) that causes some of the large debt-heavy companies to implode. Maybe this will cause a recession that'll require the fed to move to negative rates (pre-recession rates of ~1.3-1.4% doesn't leave much room!). It's impossible to know.

The actual "blood in the streets" events always feel real. In 2008, there was legit concern for the future of the global financial system. There was palpable concern for the future of the economy. That's why there are severe pull backs. There's no other way to get people to sell stocks even after a 20-30-50% draw down (neglecting margin calls, etc.).
Last edited by totesmagotes on Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Corsair »

Happy I decreased AA in some accounts and took some gains when the market hit record highs 2/12. Still holding gold positions and had bought long call options on SPXS.

Any numbers coming out of China are not real. It made no sense the market was soaring to record heights with what was happening. Will average back in over the year; fine messing some gains with so much downside.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw »

According to WHO we are still in the brink of a pandemic. There is a high risk of that, but we are not there yet.

Experts have been saying for weeks that it's a matter of time when this spreads outside of China. I hope the human cost is low and things get better in the coming months.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Arabesque »

I do think that the economic fallout of COVID-19 will be significant, but I am more selfishly worried about the mortality rate for those in their 60s. In fact I was sufficiently worried about mortality rates to sell some stock and not rollover a CD last month. Is it shameful to market time if you are right?

http://virological.org/t/remarkable-age ... hina/399/2: "The age distribution of morbidity, and the much higher mortality in the 70-79 yo group (8%), and 80+ yo group (14.8%) are reminiscent of morbidity of shingles, and suggestive that immunological amnesia may play a role in both high morbidity and mortality in the elderly with SARS-CoV-2."

https://www.livescience.com/new-china-c ... s-faq.html: "The study also showed that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9."
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:27 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:48 am
DB2 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 11:43 am
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:45 am
DB2 wrote: Sun Feb 23, 2020 8:20 pm

It's is different this time when you consider the possible election outcome, virus, and late in the business cycle. Perfect storm brewing?
It is always different. Every drop is different from the last drop, every crash is different from the last crash.

I have no idea if this drop is the start of the big crash, or not.
It's always different, but this is different in a much bigger way.
I'm inclined to agree. This is the worst global pandemic in 100 years. No one knows how far reaching its effect will be nor how long a recovery will take.
Those two comments don't go together.

Until we know far reaching the effects or how long a recovery will take, we can't call it "The worst global pandemic in 100 years" yet.

I mean, it may be the worst. But we don't know yet. If it is the worst, stocks will keep going down. If it's not the worst, stocks may come back up.

No one knows.
In all fairness, I did forget about the two major flu pandemics that occurred since the Spanish flu of 1918: the 'Hong Kong' flu of 1968 that killed one million and the Asian flu of 1956-1958 that killed two million. This could easily surpass those, but you're right that we don't know for sure that it will yet.

One of the frustrating aspects of this is that we will likely never know the real death toll in China at least.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

Every year should be like 2017.

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rule low
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rule low »

guyinlaw wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:33 pm According to WHO we are still in the brink of a pandemic. There is a high risk of that, but we are not there yet.

Experts have been saying for weeks that it's a matter of time when this spreads outside of China. I hope the human cost is low and things get better in the coming months.
WHO and similar organizations are not going to jump the gun with an official declaration and cause mass hysteria. The outlook is bad because multiple governments dealing with this disease are clearly unprepared (Japan, Iran, etc). The question is whether this correction is properly pricing in a global pandemic. Marketwise, it's going to get worse before it gets better, if only because an over-correction is probable IMO.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

sailaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:12 pm I don't understand how anyone could make this be all about Corona virus. Surely recent declines in manufacturing and rising debt levels have at least something to do with falling prices?
Servicing debt is based on selling products. Selling products is based on manufacturing products. Manufacturing products is based your supply chain providing components and your workers assembling your products. Sick workers don't assemble products. Sick workers spend their money on healthcare not the broad economy. People who don't want to get sick avoid vacations and business travel to areas with outbreaks or crowded travel modes like cruise ships and air planes.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:19 pm selloff is approaching 4% on the S&P 500 :| Nasdaq is down almost 5%.

Haven't seen this type of selling in a long long time!
You mean Christmas Eve 2018?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by jebmke »

another few thousand points and we'll have ourselves a real correction
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

I decided it was time to buy so I ordered a car wash mit and cell phone holder off Amazon with free next day delivery. Might buy some socks later on, too.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

Irisheyes wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
I always find these sort of moves interesting consider the market was at this level in the very recent past; why didn't you invest it then?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Starfox »

I feel like selling all of my international (VXUS) fund and buying VTI. I subscribed to the boglehead and vanguard idea of owning international 3 years ago when I retired and had a liquidity event, but just so tired of owning it. Right now 70/30 US to INTL. I almost did this Christmas Eve in 2018 and should have in hindsight. It is not enjoyable comparing the past 3, 5, 10, and 25 years of VXUS, to VTI. :annoyed
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

Starfox wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:56 pm I feel like selling all of my international (VXUS) fund and buying VTI. I subscribed to the boglehead and vanguard idea of owning international 3 years ago when I retired and had a liquidity event, but just so tired of owning it. Right now 70/30 US to INTL. I almost did this Christmas Eve in 2018 and should have in hindsight. It is not enjoyable comparing the past 3, 5, 10, and 25 years of VXUS, to VTI. :annoyed
You should. Then when ex-US outperforms for a decade or two, you should swap back. :twisted:

I am sitting steady with my 30% ex-US (almost all in small-value though) and buying more and more as it under-performs.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rkhusky »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:19 pm The market is sick.
Sick as in very good? Or sick as in ill?
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Steve Reading
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Steve Reading »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:55 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
I always find these sort of moves interesting consider the market was at this level in the very recent past; why didn't you invest it then?
Probably anchoring
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet, and largely irrelevant, but if the markets closed now, this would be the third largest one day point loss in the history of the S&P 500.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

305pelusa wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:03 pm
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:55 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
I always find these sort of moves interesting consider the market was at this level in the very recent past; why didn't you invest it then?
Probably anchoring
I guess if the entire market anchors to the new high, you could make the case that it is indeed a different situation and today's 3230 S&P500 is safer than 2019's.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:04 pm Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet, and largely irrelevant, but if the markets closed now, this would be the third largest one day point loss in the history of the S&P 500.
In points which means absolutely nothing. Needs to double to even crack the top 20 in percent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _500_Index
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mroe800 »

rkhusky wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:02 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:19 pm The market is sick.
Sick as in very good? Or sick as in ill?
Ill as in unwell or ill as in cool?
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:06 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:04 pm Not sure if anybody has mentioned it yet, and largely irrelevant, but if the markets closed now, this would be the third largest one day point loss in the history of the S&P 500.
In points which means absolutely nothing. Needs to double to even crack the top 20 in percent.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_l ... _500_Index
I said largely irrelevant. Perhaps I should have said, "completely irrelevant" to be more accurate. :sharebeer
TropikThunder
Posts: 2545
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TropikThunder »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:55 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
I always find these sort of moves interesting consider the market was at this level in the very recent past; why didn't you invest it then?
VTI isn’t a smart buy at $164 unless it was at $170 the day before. Cuz then it’s on sale! One could have gotten VTI at the same $164 during the first week of January but if you hold dry powder, let it go up 5%, and then buy after a 3% drop, you feel smarter.
Last edited by TropikThunder on Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Greg in Idaho
Posts: 136
Joined: Tue Dec 27, 2016 12:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Greg in Idaho »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:55 pm
Irisheyes wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:15 pm

I've moved some money into stocks today from a large pile of dry powder I've been sitting on for a while, but will wait for a much larger drop to do anything substantive.
I always find these sort of moves interesting consider the market was at this level in the very recent past; why didn't you invest it then?
Down to December 2019 levels...Egads!
tavore
Posts: 46
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 8:29 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tavore »

I love this thread.

Also, I put in some money last week. I got excellent market timing skillzzz!
wolf359
Posts: 2200
Joined: Sun Mar 15, 2015 8:47 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by wolf359 »

Starfox wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:56 pm I feel like selling all of my international (VXUS) fund and buying VTI. I subscribed to the boglehead and vanguard idea of owning international 3 years ago when I retired and had a liquidity event, but just so tired of owning it. Right now 70/30 US to INTL. I almost did this Christmas Eve in 2018 and should have in hindsight. It is not enjoyable comparing the past 3, 5, 10, and 25 years of VXUS, to VTI. :annoyed
If the markets around the world continue to drop, which one would likely drop further, VXUS (Vanguard Total International Stock Index ETF) or VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF), and why?

If VTI has been making record highs for the last 10 years, and VXUS has not, doesn't that mean that VXUS is closer to a bottom? So in a falling market, isn't it better to buy the underbought asset rather than the overbought one?

One thing that VXUS has been good for is tax loss harvesting. Its chart is pretty cyclical.

If you're happy with the performance of everything in your portfolio, then you're probably not properly diversified.

It's interesting that you just posted this. I just made a decision as to where to allocate a manual scheduled purchase, and I threw it at VXUS for the same reason you're not. It's because VTI has performed so well in the past.
Candor
Posts: 314
Joined: Sat May 28, 2011 4:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Candor »

I bought my first bonds last year as a 52 year old and moved 25% from equities onto those bonds so I feel like I'm well positioned to take advantage of any large movements to the downside. I kind of like my 50/25/25 allocation though so I hope I don't have to buy into this potential downturn but I certainly will if this turns into a significant move in the markets. I have always had a hard time resisting a good sale.
J45
Posts: 64
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 12:39 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by J45 »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:08 pm
flyingaway wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:03 pm Maybe I should actually think about writing my first will.
If the virus becomes pandemic, the first thing to worry about is to stay alive.
The mortality rate has been 2%. I can't bring myself to say "only" 2%. And for flu it's in the ballpark of 5 per 100,000 so this is hundreds of times more deadly than flu, or at least the flu we are used to. 2% is about the same as the mortality rate for flu in 1918. Because of uncertainties about everything 2% that may not be a trustworthy figure. And, of course, that might be 2% with "proper" current medical treatment, and at some point the pandemic might overwhelm medical facilities.

But still... you know, if you're reasonably healthy, this isn't like Ebola. (As far as we know. Yet.)
I am not a virologist but I think its not the 2% that is so dangerous. Its the 20-30% that get very sick and need hospitalization. Hope this number wrong but if that is the case, it could be be a major problem for heavily populated areas. It can fill up hospitals in days and that will spill into small towns etc.
H. E. Pennypacker
Posts: 29
Joined: Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:06 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H. E. Pennypacker »

mroe800 wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:08 pm
rkhusky wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:02 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Feb 24, 2020 12:19 pm The market is sick.
Sick as in very good? Or sick as in ill?
Ill as in unwell or ill as in cool?
Cool as in unhealthily cold or cool as in aesthetically appealing and admirable?
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