U.S. stocks in free fall

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GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by GoldenFinch »

Mactheriverrat wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:24 pm Oh , its the end of the world again.

Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you. I always wait for the yawns around here on down days. Very calming. Even with all the exclamation points. Evidence that there are relaxed Bogleheads.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
A good shakeout from time to time is healthy and helps to keep those suffering heavily from FOMO from buying too much.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Futures are up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

I was down .28% today. :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:02 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
A good shakeout from time to time is healthy and helps to keep those suffering heavily from FOMO from buying too much.
Or perhaps slow down the folks with leveraged portfolio?

Remember when the market had nothing but gains in 2017? What happened in 2018? Stocks in the red across the board and cash was the best performing assets in 2018.

Not too long ago.
Last edited by H-Town on Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

Bluce wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:12 pm I was down .28% today. :shock:
Is that all? You must be heavy in bonds.....
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by impatientlady »

lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:09 pm Futures are up.
Please, no. I need time to buy some before it goes back up. Paper checks are slow [edited by mighty72 -moderator].
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Third Son wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:20 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:12 pm I was down .28% today. :shock:
Is that all? You must be heavy in bonds.....
30/70 :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by whodidntante »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:23 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:09 pm Futures are up.
Please, no. I need time to buy some before it goes back up. Paper checks are slow [edited by mighty72 -moderator].
The 1930's called. They want their ways of transferring money back. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by impatientlady »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:32 pm
impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:23 pm
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:09 pm Futures are up.
Please, no. I need time to buy some before it goes back up. Paper checks are slow [edited by mighty72 -moderator].

The 1930's called. They want their ways of transferring money back. :beer
Tell that to Fidelity
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AerialWombat »

Bluce wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:27 pm
Third Son wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:20 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:12 pm I was down .28% today. :shock:
Is that all? You must be heavy in bonds.....
30/70 :beer
Amen to this!

I was down 0.18% today. Praise the power of Wellesley. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tyler Aspect »

Sees the stock drop. Went to local CVS. They are out of facemasks. Saw one lady wearing one asking if they have more; nope, all out.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

AerialWombat wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:41 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:27 pm
Third Son wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:20 pm
Bluce wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:12 pm I was down .28% today. :shock:
Is that all? You must be heavy in bonds.....
30/70 :beer
Amen to this!

I was down 0.18% today. Praise the power of Wellesley. :moneybag
Down a bit but not too concerned...
Last edited by Third Son on Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 »

Tyler Aspect wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:45 pm Sees the stock drop. Went to local CVS. They are out of facemasks. Saw one lady wearing one asking if they have more; nope, all out.
Time to buy stock in masks? (just kidding)

Well, those that use masks will be partially protected from run of the mill colds and flus, at least. So long as they remember to wash their hands, too!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by edgeagg »

You're at higher risk from the flu (94 deaths per day approx based on CDC stats). To quote a previously somnolent Boglehead: Yaaawn!!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ruralavalon »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:33 pm I'm wondering what all the fuss was about.
We still have a positive return this year, probably the same for most people.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by anon3838 »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
This is Bogleheads freaking out - The $5K watch discussion: viewtopic.php?f=11&t=27707
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

110 potential cases across 26 states in the US:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/27/cdc-is- ... in-us.html

Futures are UP though...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

clip651 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:50 pm
Tyler Aspect wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:45 pm Sees the stock drop. Went to local CVS. They are out of facemasks. Saw one lady wearing one asking if they have more; nope, all out.
Time to buy stock in masks? (just kidding)

Well, those that use masks will be partially protected from run of the mill colds and flus, at least. So long as they remember to wash their hands, too!
Dang! I sold everything this morning and bought gold, bread, water, batteries, and ammo. I DIDN'T THINK TO GET MASKS! OMG! :oops:

I will have to add it to my "End of the World Get Ready List" for the next time. :shock:
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:24 pm
Independent George wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:22 pm
impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
Most people here are just having fun; a few are genuinely freaking out, which makes me shake my head. Bogleheads are supposed to be better than this. If someone is freaked out by a 2% drop, they need to be 80% bonds.
Well it is the apocalypse, cut them some slack.
Haha, I'm LMAO! :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ofcmetz »

Lbill wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2011 1:30 pm DOW is down by over 550 points with a couple hours of trading left. Trading halt on the way?
The day this thread started in 2011 the Dow sank 635 points or 5.6% to 10,810. Today we crashed down to 28,535 on a 1.57% decline. Yawn :sharebeer

It is cool to see this thread still running.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WildCat48 »

I wish Schwab had a button so you could just liquidate your entire portfolio at once.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by unclescrooge »

lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:01 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
I'd also like a reminder.
Because Chinese funds were up 35% last year, and Russia was up 56% in 2016 (or somewhere there abouts).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by unclescrooge »

Tyler Aspect wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:45 pm Sees the stock drop. Went to local CVS. They are out of facemasks. Saw one lady wearing one asking if they have more; nope, all out.
Did you tell her to go to Home Depot?
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

I'm frozen with fear. Or laziness. Or something.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post and reply regarding the use of masks to prevent catching a virus (medical advice).

Please stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mactheriverrat »

GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:53 pm
Mactheriverrat wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:24 pm Oh , its the end of the world again.

Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you. I always wait for the yawns around here on down days. Very calming. Even with all the exclamation points. Evidence that there are relaxed Bogleheads.
:sharebeer
There are other forums I go to and posters are jumping out their rear ends as if the world is ending. Its funny or sad should I say.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

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As a reminder, posting criticism of the moderation is not allowed.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
Agreed. Too calm. We need a 10-15% drop to bring prices back to reality.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

WildCat48 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:30 pm I wish Schwab had a button so you could just liquidate your entire portfolio at once.
Wait until Schwab starts paying $5 per trade. Then you can do that daily.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

We're so close to our number that is supposed to happen.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Monsterflockster »

AlphaLess wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:52 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
Agreed. Too calm. We need a 10-15% drop to bring prices back to reality.
What makes you think this?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

Monsterflockster wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:18 am
AlphaLess wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:52 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
Agreed. Too calm. We need a 10-15% drop to bring prices back to reality.
What makes you think this?
Think what?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

Futures are UP.

Let’s move to the “Soaring!” thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by retireIn2020 »

Umm, my Bond fund is soaring :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by manatee2005 »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:06 pm
lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:01 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
I'd also like a reminder.
Because of a fear of Japan's Lost Decade happening to America; home country bias; and/or relatively low price/valuation.

You guys could still have a laugh later when the US crashes. EM might not crash as hard or at all.
You can’t compare Japan and US. The start up culture in US is unmatched.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

One upside is that I have automatically re-balanced :-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Third Son »

Third Son wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 7:11 am One upside of the slide is that I have automatically re-balanced :-)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet »

I sold everything yesterday and am 100% long on triple leveraged face mask futures. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

AlphaLess wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:52 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
Agreed. Too calm. We need a 10-15% drop to bring prices back to reality.
More like 40-50%? It needs to put fear into new investors who believe stocks cannot go anywhere but up.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Monsterflockster wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 12:18 am
AlphaLess wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:52 pm
whodidntante wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm For those panicking, this was a normal swing before the markets got boring. Things have been calm lately. Maybe too calm.
Agreed. Too calm. We need a 10-15% drop to bring prices back to reality.
What makes you think this?
Classic talking head position is always we need to a 10%-15% pullback/correction when the market has had a good run. If I remember 10%ish pullbacks happen something like every 18 months or so on average so it is a great broken clock prediction.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:44 pm
...Are people doing this with a trailing stop limit or just a pure trailing stop? If the market tip-toes down to 4% from the ATH and then crosses it with a sudden 5% one-day drop, are you then locking in a 9% loss from ATH?
I do it with a pure trailing stop. It activates as a market order 5% below the highest price achieved after I place the order.

I have never used this type of order to lock in a loss. I have been a QQQ investor for over a decade and have very nice gains. When an ETF gets into today's rarified atmosphere this is a compromise between selling a portion of the holding now to lock in gains, or retaining that holding hoping for more gains.

I can ride the bull up and when the price action says there might be a serious drop coming, I capture most of the gain.

I was 100% stocks going into December 2018. A 5% trailing stop on 10% of our holdings got me out before the big dip at Christmas. After the turbulence subsided I rebalanced that money into short term bonds. But rather than sell off another 10% in early 2019, I used another 5% trailing stop. QQQ gained approx 39% over 2019. That beat the stuffing out of putting the money into bonds at 2%.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by scintillator »

rascott wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:44 am
That's quite a story..... are you saying American Funds wouldn't allow an ACATS transfer? Or did you not even attempt to just transfer the actual MF shares. I transferred a bunch of American Funds to Ally without any issue. Then sold them there and bought what I wanted. But the AFs were held in a Wells Fargo Advisor account.... not directly with AF.

Did you buy back in yet.... or stil sitting on the sidelines?
In hindsight I'm sure there was a more prudent way to have gone about it. I assume I looked into an ACATS transfer; maybe it required some medallion signature too because my Merrill account was brand new and the American Funds account had just been transferred to me. The punchline is just that being out of the market for a week was a risk I didn't mind accepting, and then I got torched. And yes, I''m still out of the market [OT comment removed by moderator oldcomputerguy].
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 9:55 am
MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:44 pm
...Are people doing this with a trailing stop limit or just a pure trailing stop? If the market tip-toes down to 4% from the ATH and then crosses it with a sudden 5% one-day drop, are you then locking in a 9% loss from ATH?
I do it with a pure trailing stop. It activates as a market order 5% below the highest price achieved after I place the order.

I have never used this type of order to lock in a loss. I have been a QQQ investor for over a decade and have very nice gains. When an ETF gets into today's rarified atmosphere this is a compromise between selling a portion of the holding now to lock in gains, or retaining that holding hoping for more gains.

I can ride the bull up and when the price action says there might be a serious drop coming, I capture most of the gain.

I was 100% stocks going into December 2018. A 5% trailing stop on 10% of our holdings got me out before the big dip at Christmas. After the turbulence subsided I rebalanced that money into short term bonds. But rather than sell off another 10% in early 2019, I used another 5% trailing stop. QQQ gained approx 39% over 2019. That beat the stuffing out of putting the money into bonds at 2%.
Without a limit though would you not be susceptible to a panic or flash-crash? What if the market drops 15% in a single day? That could expose you to a 19.9% max drop (assuming you drifted down almost to your trigger the day before).

The S&P500 had a 10% flash crash; this setup would make me nervous.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

I guess I am the only person who protects gains by entering limit orders that trigger on the way up. I set them to trigger when my S&P 500 ETF goes up by a certain percentage amount from the previous limit I set. In some ways it is an automated rebalancing.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:28 am I guess I am the only person who protects gains by entering limit orders that trigger on the way up. I set them to trigger when my S&P 500 ETF goes up by a certain percentage amount from the previous limit I set. In some ways it is an automated rebalancing.
If you aren't putting your entire portfolio on this and set it up in a way where you will always lock in gains as your AA goes a certain percentage out of whack, then I don't see any major issues here. Would be best if you could also catch it on the way down... so really all it is is a system that auto-rebalances whenever your AA is X% out. I am surprised M1 doesn't have such a feature (recurring rebalancing based on time or allocation); you'd think more trading is more revenue for them.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:44 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:28 am I guess I am the only person who protects gains by entering limit orders that trigger on the way up. I set them to trigger when my S&P 500 ETF goes up by a certain percentage amount from the previous limit I set. In some ways it is an automated rebalancing.
If you aren't putting your entire portfolio on this and set it up in a way where you will always lock in gains as your AA goes a certain percentage out of whack, then I don't see any major issues here. Would be best if you could also catch it on the way down... so really all it is is a system that auto-rebalances whenever your AA is X% out. I am surprised M1 doesn't have such a feature (recurring rebalancing based on time or allocation); you'd think more trading is more revenue for them.
I have worked very hard to construct my Rube Goldberg investing machine which occasionally contains some funny cross currents but accomplishes what I want it to.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:24 am
Without a limit though would you not be susceptible to a panic or flash-crash? What if the market drops 15% in a single day? That could expose you to a 19.9% max drop (assuming you drifted down almost to your trigger the day before).

The S&P500 had a 10% flash crash; this setup would make me nervous.
It makes me nervous too. I worry about the possibilities of a flash crash, but I think the scenario you propose is a real outlier.

I limit the risk by only placing trailing stops on a portion of the portfolio. Then I get up every morning, put on my big boy pants and accept that life is full of risks. Yup, I am going to get zapped every once in a while, but the rest of the time I think I do enough better to make up for it.

It is a lot safer than the investments I used to make before I declared myself FI and quit working for megacorp.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:56 am
MotoTrojan wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:44 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:28 am I guess I am the only person who protects gains by entering limit orders that trigger on the way up. I set them to trigger when my S&P 500 ETF goes up by a certain percentage amount from the previous limit I set. In some ways it is an automated rebalancing.
If you aren't putting your entire portfolio on this and set it up in a way where you will always lock in gains as your AA goes a certain percentage out of whack, then I don't see any major issues here. Would be best if you could also catch it on the way down... so really all it is is a system that auto-rebalances whenever your AA is X% out. I am surprised M1 doesn't have such a feature (recurring rebalancing based on time or allocation); you'd think more trading is more revenue for them.
I have worked very hard to construct my Rube Goldberg investing machine which occasionally contains some funny cross currents but accomplishes what I want it to.
I hope you didn't copy my toothpaste squeezer! I have a patent on it! :annoyed

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"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
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