U.S. stocks in free fall

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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

keyfort wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:15 am
scintillator wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:25 am I don't even understand what keyfort is saying is looking really really bad and heading further down—VTI? It's down less than one percent. If it makes you feel any better, I had to take 300k out of American Funds a few months ago, and for some clerical nonsense I won't get into, they said they required a medallion signature sent to them and I'd have to jump through some other hoops for them to wire the funds to my Merrill Edge account, or they could just mail me three checks over the course of three days (there's like a $100k limit per check). So I said fine, just mail me the checks—the market has been running like the sun anyway—the expected value/loss of sitting the market out for a few days can't be more than a tenth of a percent right now. Well, wouldn't you know it, the checks took a week to arrive, and during that week the S&P rocketed up like 3%. So it cost me about $9,000 because those clowns couldn't just wire or ACH it to my Merrill Edge account, and insisted on mailing checks in the year 2019. What's worse is that I was so ticked off by the ridiculous circumstances and bad luck that I vowed not to buy back into the market before the S&P went back down to 3000, which is where it was when they sent the checks. So now I've lost about $30,000 by being stubborn about this and I want to kill myself. So if you're actually complaining that you did the right thing and invested and then the market had one typical down day where it lost less than 1%, understand if I have little sympathy.
It's not down less than 1% since I lump summed in. It's not one typical down day either. It's down 3% in a week and this is my first major entry into the markets. I've seen the beginning of this thread where some experienced investors lost their minds. I feel sympathy for them. I feel sympathy for you too now that you've lost $30,000 as you say.

Whatever happens, I'm not selling anything. Even if I have to handcuff myself to something I know that would be my biggest mistake. Now it's done, it's done.
3% down in a week happens multiple times a year I would presume. 10% drops happen every year.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:53 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:59 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:58 am This thread is great for exposure therapy and how the human mind panicks.

Will be interesting to see if someone bails.
Lots of folks have been indicating they have trailing stop loss orders so maybe some of them will trigger if this goes on another day or so.
It triggered. But I canceled it last night. I'm not selling because of some stupid virus.
My 5% trailing stop on QQQ is still active. It has not activated yet. Strike price is $214.58 vs. current $218.32. I am going to leave it and decide what to do with the proceeds after it happens. It is only on about 7% of my holdings.
"After it happens". If you are certain it will, then why not sell now and profit the extra 1.7%?
Chicken Little
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chicken Little »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:57 amHow do we think this will effect the China trade agreement? It could be an excuse for China to want to renegotiate.
Chinese and US perceptions of “patience” are quite different (they have been at it a few thousand years longer than us).
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

already recovering... I guess the worst may be over
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corn18
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by corn18 »

It does seem to bounce around a bit.

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UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I'm wondering what all the fuss was about.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:16 pm
..."After it happens". If you are certain it will, then why not sell now and profit the extra 1.7%?
I don't have that certainty.

A 3% drop is probably just noise, a 5% drop might be noise but has a higher probability of being serious.
WildCat48
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WildCat48 »

This coronavirus might be the end, of the world, and of the markets. Godspeed.
TropikThunder
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TropikThunder »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:25 pm already recovering... I guess the worst may be over
It can’t be recovering, Jim Cramer said not to buy yet.
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
Fun banter.
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TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC »

WildCat48 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:49 pm This coronavirus might be the end, of the world, and of the markets. Godspeed.
You say BUY on Smith Corona? Too late. Bankrupt. Darn.

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lexor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lexor »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
I'd be more concerned about the virus itself if you're a buy and hold investor. But mostly I think people are joking around.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mactheriverrat »

Oh , its the end of the world again.

Yawn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheDDC »

lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:20 pm
impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
I'd be more concerned about the virus itself if you're a buy and hold investor. But mostly I think people are joking around.
Not really concerned as a Bogleheads BHer.

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MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
Very refreshing to read this.
BogleMelon
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by BogleMelon »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
I am here for fun. For me, this thread sometimes is better than Netflix movies :D
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Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:53 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:59 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:58 am This thread is great for exposure therapy and how the human mind panicks.

Will be interesting to see if someone bails.
Lots of folks have been indicating they have trailing stop loss orders so maybe some of them will trigger if this goes on another day or so.
It triggered. But I canceled it last night. I'm not selling because of some stupid virus.
My 5% trailing stop on QQQ is still active. It has not activated yet. Strike price is $214.58 vs. current $218.32. I am going to leave it and decide what to do with the proceeds after it happens. It is only on about 7% of my holdings.
Mine was 2% to trigger a rebalance event. Ended up still rebalancing, but got a much better price by waiting til the afternoon session.
lexor
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lexor »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:49 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:53 am
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 9:59 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:00 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 7:58 am This thread is great for exposure therapy and how the human mind panicks.

Will be interesting to see if someone bails.
Lots of folks have been indicating they have trailing stop loss orders so maybe some of them will trigger if this goes on another day or so.
It triggered. But I canceled it last night. I'm not selling because of some stupid virus.
My 5% trailing stop on QQQ is still active. It has not activated yet. Strike price is $214.58 vs. current $218.32. I am going to leave it and decide what to do with the proceeds after it happens. It is only on about 7% of my holdings.
Mine was 2% to trigger a rebalance event. Ended up still rebalancing, but got a much better price by waiting til the afternoon session.
Isn't a stop loss order sort of a bad idea that could cause you to miss out on more gains than loses.
“The miracle of compounding returns is overwhelmed by the tyranny of compounding costs.” -Mr. John C. Bogle
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

TropikThunder wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:50 pm It can’t be recovering, Jim Cramer said not to buy yet.
If Cramer said it must be right... :D NOT!!!
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by CurlyDave »

lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:52 pm
...Isn't a stop loss order sort of a bad idea that could cause you to miss out on more gains than loses.
A trailing stop is very different than a stop loss.

I agree a stop loss is almost always a bad idea.

A trailing stop follows the price of the security up, activating at a pre-selected dip below the maximum price achieved after the order is placed.
MotoTrojan
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MotoTrojan »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:04 pm
lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:52 pm
...Isn't a stop loss order sort of a bad idea that could cause you to miss out on more gains than loses.
A trailing stop is very different than a stop loss.

I agree a stop loss is almost always a bad idea.

A trailing stop follows the price of the security up, activating at a pre-selected dip below the maximum price achieved after the order is placed.
Are people doing this with a trailing stop limit or just a pure trailing stop? If the market tip-toes down to 4% from the ATH and then crosses it with a sudden 5% one-day drop, are you then locking in a 9% loss from ATH?
Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

MotoTrojan wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:44 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 2:04 pm
lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 1:52 pm
...Isn't a stop loss order sort of a bad idea that could cause you to miss out on more gains than loses.
A trailing stop is very different than a stop loss.

I agree a stop loss is almost always a bad idea.

A trailing stop follows the price of the security up, activating at a pre-selected dip below the maximum price achieved after the order is placed.
Are people doing this with a trailing stop limit or just a pure trailing stop? If the market tip-toes down to 4% from the ATH and then crosses it with a sudden 5% one-day drop, are you then locking in a 9% loss from ATH?
Which is worse: Not executing or a bigger drop than the X% you put the trailing limit in for? Based on the answer to that question is how you should put the order in.

Another method is to put the trailing stop in and if it looks like it may trigger soon, cancel it and turn it into an alert. Then you can act on the alert or not.

But IMO what's the point of putting in an order that will not execute. You either were going to sell it or not and if you're afraid of losing an extra point or two on a gap, you should probably not use trailing limits to begin with.
Halicar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Halicar »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
This thread (along with the "US Stocks Continue to Soar" thread) are about 95% banter. Stick around and you'll see both threads are active almost every day, regardless of what the market is doing.
TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomCat96 »

Going to make a prediction.
VTI is down 1.37% for now.

By close, so 4:00 today and after hours its going to drop from here as traders feel skittish about being exposed to another night's worth of news developments over the coronavirus outbreak.

I'm guess it will end the day down by ~1.6%
guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:59 am
grettman wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:50 am If this is the chatter during an overnight drop of 1.5%, it will be very interesting to see what happens when we have a NORMAL correction of 10-20%.
We just had one a year ago. A nice V-shaped one.
It was more like a hockey stick. ~19.8% drop followed by 38% increase
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clip651
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by clip651 »

guyinlaw wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:25 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:59 am
grettman wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:50 am If this is the chatter during an overnight drop of 1.5%, it will be very interesting to see what happens when we have a NORMAL correction of 10-20%.
We just had one a year ago. A nice V-shaped one.
It was more like a hockey stick. ~19.8% drop followed by 38% increase
Right, but during the drop (and initial recovery) we didn't know how the shape would turn out. Just like we don't know what will happen next from here, either.
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

Wow, I'm not even attempting to read this thread today.

Been buying and holding since 1990. :beer
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guyinlaw
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by guyinlaw »

clip651 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:28 pm
guyinlaw wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:25 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:59 am
grettman wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:50 am If this is the chatter during an overnight drop of 1.5%, it will be very interesting to see what happens when we have a NORMAL correction of 10-20%.
We just had one a year ago. A nice V-shaped one.
It was more like a hockey stick. ~19.8% drop followed by 38% increase
Right, but during the drop (and initial recovery) we didn't know how the shape would turn out. Just like we don't know what will happen next from here, either.
SP500 is still 7% above its 3 month low.. still above 50 day moving average (@3199)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

guyinlaw wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:37 pm
clip651 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:28 pm
guyinlaw wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:25 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:59 am
grettman wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:50 am If this is the chatter during an overnight drop of 1.5%, it will be very interesting to see what happens when we have a NORMAL correction of 10-20%.
We just had one a year ago. A nice V-shaped one.
It was more like a hockey stick. ~19.8% drop followed by 38% increase
Right, but during the drop (and initial recovery) we didn't know how the shape would turn out. Just like we don't know what will happen next from here, either.
SP500 is still 7% above its 3 month low.. still above 50 day moving average (@3199)
It hasn't closed yet!!! :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :shock:
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Bluce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bluce »

BONDS ARE SOARING!! :moneybag :moneybag
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

guyinlaw wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:37 pm
SP500 is still 7% above its 3 month low.. still above 50 day moving average (@3199)
And it’s less than 3% off it’s all time high.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

At the current level, a 300-400 point drop in the DOW isn't really much to worry about.

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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by grog »

scintillator wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:25 am... and I want to kill myself...
Don't do it, scintillator!
TomCat96
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomCat96 »

TomCat96 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:14 pm Going to make a prediction.
VTI is down 1.37% for now.

By close, so 4:00 today and after hours its going to drop from here as traders feel skittish about being exposed to another night's worth of news developments over the coronavirus outbreak.

I'm guess it will end the day down by ~1.6%
Do I get to claim victory?
VTI ends the day down 1.5%
WildCat48
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by WildCat48 »

I think this virus is going to cause at least a 20% drop.
Lee_WSP
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

Well, that was fun... :?

:sharebeer

I'm going to need an extra :beer tonight.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by stocknoob4111 »

WildCat48 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:22 pm I think this virus is going to cause at least a 20% drop.
doubt it, the previous virus scares have not affected the markets much, however earnings and the Fed are wildcards this week!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

WildCat48 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:22 pm I think this virus is going to cause at least a 20% drop.
No one knows. But I doubt it. At any rate, this is much more likely to hurt Asian markets than those of the West.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by abuss368 »

500 points? What did that push the DOW back by? Three weeks?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by firebirdparts »

Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lexor »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
I'd also like a reminder.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

lexor wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:01 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
I'd also like a reminder.
Because of a fear of Japan's Lost Decade happening to America; home country bias; and/or relatively low price/valuation.

You guys could still have a laugh later when the US crashes. EM might not crash as hard or at all.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
It's been a wild roller coaster ride over the last decade, one that didn't offer much of a reward. VEIEX, Vangaurd's Emerging Markets index fund, has returned 38% in the last decade. By comparison, Vanguard's TBM fund VBTLX returned 45.5% over the same period.

People have been decrying the death of SCV, yet U.S. SCV returned 202% over the last decade (yes, TSM returned 260%). Where are all the "EM is dead" threads?
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:06 pm You guys could still have a laugh later when the US crashes. EM might not crash as hard or at all.
U.S. stocks could lose 50% of their current value and still have outperformed EM over the last decade.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Lee_WSP »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:07 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
It's been a wild roller coaster ride over the last decade, one that didn't offer much of a reward. VEIEX, Vangaurd's Emerging Markets index fund, has returned 38% in the last decade. By comparison, Vanguard's TBM fund VBTLX returned 45.5% over the same period.

People have been decrying the death of SCV, yet U.S. SCV returned 202% over the last decade (yes, TSM returned 260%). Where are all the "EM is dead" threads?
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:06 pm You guys could still have a laugh later when the US crashes. EM might not crash as hard or at all.
U.S. stocks could lose 50% of their current value and still have outperformed EM over the last decade.
Never said it was likely... But there must be some reasonable combination of events that would give EM holders temporary justification.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Independent George »

impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
Most people here are just having fun; a few are genuinely freaking out, which makes me shake my head. Bogleheads are supposed to be better than this. If someone is freaked out by a 2% drop, they need to be 80% bonds.

I am a perma-bear. Back in December 2018, I am on record in this thread predicting that I expected the S&P to continue to drop to 1700. I did not change my 90/10 AA, nor did I try to time the market. I lump-summed my Roth IRA as soon as I was able to in January, and continued to contribute to my 401k even though I seriously expected to be in the middle of a bear market.

I have no idea where the market will go in 2020, but I have already lump-summed my Roth IRA, and so long as I am employed, will contribute the max to my 401k whether the S&P closes at 4,000, 2,000, or any points in between. I will shift to more bonds in January 2023, as per my IPS.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lexor »

Independent George wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:22 pm
impatientlady wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:09 pm Are people here genuinely freaking out, or is this just fun banter because we haven't seen enough market 'action'? I'm a new investor, so this is my first dip, but it doesn't seem bad at all.
Most people here are just having fun; a few are genuinely freaking out, which makes me shake my head. Bogleheads are supposed to be better than this. If someone is freaked out by a 2% drop, they need to be 80% bonds.
Well it is the apocalypse, cut them some slack.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:15 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:07 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
It's been a wild roller coaster ride over the last decade, one that didn't offer much of a reward. VEIEX, Vangaurd's Emerging Markets index fund, has returned 38% in the last decade. By comparison, Vanguard's TBM fund VBTLX returned 45.5% over the same period.

People have been decrying the death of SCV, yet U.S. SCV returned 202% over the last decade (yes, TSM returned 260%). Where are all the "EM is dead" threads?
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:06 pm You guys could still have a laugh later when the US crashes. EM might not crash as hard or at all.
U.S. stocks could lose 50% of their current value and still have outperformed EM over the last decade.
Never said it was likely... But there must be some reasonable combination of events that would give EM holders temporary justification.
Perhaps if U.S. stocks fell by 50% while EM rose by 100%. I don't see that happening in today's world though. If the U.S. gets a cold, the rest of the world seems to get pneumonia.
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
dvvader
Posts: 90
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dvvader »

TomCat96 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:14 pm Going to make a prediction.
VTI is down 1.37% for now.

By close, so 4:00 today and after hours its going to drop from here as traders feel skittish about being exposed to another night's worth of news developments over the coronavirus outbreak.

I'm guess it will end the day down by ~1.6%
-1.57% for the S&P today. Good educated guess!

:sharebeer
ImUrHuckleberry
Posts: 542
Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:44 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:28 pm
WildCat48 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 4:22 pm I think this virus is going to cause at least a 20% drop.
doubt it, the previous virus scares have not affected the markets much, however earnings and the Fed are wildcards this week!
The previous virus scares all got contained and petered out. We'll know a lot more about how this one will play out over the next week or so.

Just so nobody is confused, I'm not doing anything different with my investments. Matter of fact, I just executed a backdoor roth today and lump summed into VTI.

But on the virus front, I think a lot of people here are assuming that because previous recent virus scares ended up contained, that this one will be contained too. Well that's results oriented thinking imo, and past results may not be indicative of future results.
TomCat96
Posts: 1040
Joined: Sun Oct 18, 2015 12:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TomCat96 »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:26 pm
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:15 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:07 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:55 pm Remind me again why I invested in emerging markets.
It's been a wild roller coaster ride over the last decade, one that didn't offer much of a reward. VEIEX, Vangaurd's Emerging Markets index fund, has returned 38% in the last decade. By comparison, Vanguard's TBM fund VBTLX returned 45.5% over the same period.

People have been decrying the death of SCV, yet U.S. SCV returned 202% over the last decade (yes, TSM returned 260%). Where are all the "EM is dead" threads?
Lee_WSP wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:06 pm You guys could still have a laugh later when the US crashes. EM might not crash as hard or at all.
U.S. stocks could lose 50% of their current value and still have outperformed EM over the last decade.
Never said it was likely... But there must be some reasonable combination of events that would give EM holders temporary justification.
Perhaps if U.S. stocks fell by 50% while EM rose by 100%. I don't see that happening in today's world though. If the U.S. gets a cold, the rest of the world seems to get pneumonia.
+1
This.
I am wary of the idea of "expected" growth when it comes to markets such as EM, international and what not.
In a perfect world the extra volatility of EM should be compensated with additional growth.
In a perfect world, US stocks and International Stocks should be independent.

But for now, empirically, it has been shown that the diversification benefit has not been that great, that the US has been outperforming as of late, and for some reason every time the US drops, foreign markets instead of taking the initiative drop even further.

It's just the way the world works at the moment. Not saying it's going to be like that forever, or that I even understand why. But what I have learned is not to try to stubbornly insist it's not going to work that way based on some justifications of doctrinal purity or ideology.

Nobody asked for the yen carry trade to form for example when Japanese interest rates were stupid low compared to the US. It just happened because it was profitable, and a few banks were in a good position. Who knows what other entangling market forces have arranged themselves as they have.

What's clear enough is that the markets do as they are doing now and today. It is better to take the market at its word (that is empirically) than justify to the aether why something ought to be a diversifier or better performing and invest as such.
Last edited by TomCat96 on Mon Jan 27, 2020 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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